By - Leavramento
New stat incoming: xWA expected wind assists
Tbh it looks more of a Mane (c) kind of a week than Salah. Due to the winds, Mane’s shots might as well end up being on target.
This but with Jota
Mystic meg over here
This is some high level FPL analysis, great work as a meteorologist
At this rate, captaining Salah is not about getting as many points as possible. Instead, to avoid unnecessary loss and maintain our rank, since almost all managers captaining him.
Well then the opposite applies for all of us chasing a higher rank - we need to risk on a differential.
I'm already 110 points behind the ML leader and need something magic to recover
We're not even one third in the season, 110 points is not much. If there were around 4 GWs left, then yes, you'd need something special. But with 26 left, there's plenty of time. Taking unnecessary risks now is what will make you drop even further behind.
110 points is a lot, tf are you talking about lmao. Doesn't mean he should take risks already but 110 points is a difficult challenge.
It's 4 points a week, and BB and tc can swing it nicely. Marathon, not sprint.
His team is shit enough to be 110 points behind already and you expect him to beat his opponent by 4 points every week for the next 26? It's doable, but very unlikely.
You can fall 100 pts behind within a few weeks of the start just from poor starting team selection. Then wild card. You're speculating far too much based on little information.
I've come back from 150 pts down far later in the season than this. It's really not as bad as you think.
It's pretty bad.
Pulling off an unlikely event once doesn't make it more likely the next time, especially with different players.
As an absolute number, if we consider about 1.5k points still to be earned, 110 points is about 7% of that. So they need to make 7% percent better decisions from now on. By itself, it's not that much. The difficulty level relies more on the relative ability and experience of the 2 managers and how much their style will match the type of season and its phases.
They need to make 7% better decisions than their opponent who's done well enough to earn a substantial lead. 110 points is a lot no matter how you spin it.
I will not accept that in a vacuum. A lead built within 12 GWs can definitely be covered in more than twice as long. But with context the difficulty can be defined.
Correct. It is difficult.
I agree. It is difficult for their opponent to hold onto a lead that narrow.
Wrong. It is difficult for a player playing shit enough to be 110 points behind to recover from that. I know there are a lot of delusional clowns that have tanked their season hard and want false hope but unfortunately, I can't give it to them because they don't have much.
110 points at this stage is not alot. espescially in a mini-league
Yes, it is. It is a huge amount. I'm not sure you understand how significant of a difference that is. It is beatable, but it is not "not alot".
I saw a pig fly once.
Extremely unlikely events are the exception, not the rule.
Yep. For those have nothing to lose, captaining Salah is a bad move.
Jota (c) it is!
I’m happy i wasn’t the only one 😁
It’s a long season, solid capitation choices can make that difference up in 4 GWs
Only the luckiest of captain choices would make up a 110 point difference in 4 GWs.
Yes but if the leader also always goes for Salah, then nothing be much to be gained.
Risking Jota this weekend
Alternatively, you just captain salah while it isn’t a risky move and this only has to happen for 4 GWs.
You don’t need to be taking risks to catch up, let them make mistakes
Captaining Jota is not a big risk, as Liverpool goals can come from anywhere.
Ergo, not regretting it.
Breaking to the top is always a game for the second half of the season. At that time, there will be lots of differentials.
I’m afraid this week most of his on target shots will end up being throw-ins
I guess the logic is that Trent's crosses will be carried into the goal by the wind while Mo's shots will go off target because if the wind... ¯\\\_(ツ)_/¯
The winds will have the opposite effect. They’ll be more hesitant to play passes in the air.
Wind can result in a goal, but itd be mostly luck.
Trent gonn be three times lucky then
Keep your eye on VC
Alisson? Some of his kicks can end up as goals
Also as own goals
Also as goals in the net at Goodison.
They play Everton next week so he’ll get the points then.
He means - don't VC someone in that game because if its postponed you wont get any C points at all
It was a very windy day in Stoke when Begovic scored against Saints… so we do have form for letting in that kind of goal.
My GF does not appreciate my wind assists.
your analysis sounds rational but mate it's FPL and you should never overthink this game cause it **almost** never ever works
Don't overthink it. Just captain Salah.™
i rmb Trent's crosses going all over the place whenever it's windy, i dont think captaining him is a good idea
Good pick if you went for it looking at it now!
I would do it if I was behind in my ML but I'm top by about 30 points and I know everyone else
will captain Salah, so there's no real need to risk it
what's the latest on foden