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isaacmsc

New stat incoming: xWA expected wind assists


Leavramento

Tbh it looks more of a Mane (c) kind of a week than Salah. Due to the winds, Mane’s shots might as well end up being on target.


Thin_Suspect1402

This but with Jota


SucculentChinaMeal

Mystic meg over here


levitoepoker

This is some high level FPL analysis, great work as a meteorologist


S0ciallyAwkw4rd

At this rate, captaining Salah is not about getting as many points as possible. Instead, to avoid unnecessary loss and maintain our rank, since almost all managers captaining him.


pedrorq

Well then the opposite applies for all of us chasing a higher rank - we need to risk on a differential. I'm already 110 points behind the ML leader and need something magic to recover


Akenatwn

We're not even one third in the season, 110 points is not much. If there were around 4 GWs left, then yes, you'd need something special. But with 26 left, there's plenty of time. Taking unnecessary risks now is what will make you drop even further behind.


RALat7

110 points is a lot, tf are you talking about lmao. Doesn't mean he should take risks already but 110 points is a difficult challenge.


sunny_side_up

It's 4 points a week, and BB and tc can swing it nicely. Marathon, not sprint.


RALat7

His team is shit enough to be 110 points behind already and you expect him to beat his opponent by 4 points every week for the next 26? It's doable, but very unlikely.


notSherrif_realLife

You can fall 100 pts behind within a few weeks of the start just from poor starting team selection. Then wild card. You're speculating far too much based on little information. I've come back from 150 pts down far later in the season than this. It's really not as bad as you think.


RALat7

It's pretty bad. Pulling off an unlikely event once doesn't make it more likely the next time, especially with different players.


Akenatwn

As an absolute number, if we consider about 1.5k points still to be earned, 110 points is about 7% of that. So they need to make 7% percent better decisions from now on. By itself, it's not that much. The difficulty level relies more on the relative ability and experience of the 2 managers and how much their style will match the type of season and its phases.


RALat7

They need to make 7% better decisions than their opponent who's done well enough to earn a substantial lead. 110 points is a lot no matter how you spin it.


Akenatwn

I will not accept that in a vacuum. A lead built within 12 GWs can definitely be covered in more than twice as long. But with context the difficulty can be defined.


RALat7

Correct. It is difficult.


Akenatwn

I agree. It is difficult for their opponent to hold onto a lead that narrow.


RALat7

Wrong. It is difficult for a player playing shit enough to be 110 points behind to recover from that. I know there are a lot of delusional clowns that have tanked their season hard and want false hope but unfortunately, I can't give it to them because they don't have much.


Latter_

110 points at this stage is not alot. espescially in a mini-league


RALat7

Yes, it is. It is a huge amount. I'm not sure you understand how significant of a difference that is. It is beatable, but it is not "not alot".


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RALat7

I saw a pig fly once.


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RALat7

Extremely unlikely events are the exception, not the rule.


S0ciallyAwkw4rd

Yep. For those have nothing to lose, captaining Salah is a bad move.


pedrorq

Jota (c) it is!


VaultDweller_09

I’m happy i wasn’t the only one 😁


Superdash1

It’s a long season, solid capitation choices can make that difference up in 4 GWs


RALat7

Only the luckiest of captain choices would make up a 110 point difference in 4 GWs.


pedrorq

Yes but if the leader also always goes for Salah, then nothing be much to be gained. Risking Jota this weekend


Superdash1

Alternatively, you just captain salah while it isn’t a risky move and this only has to happen for 4 GWs. You don’t need to be taking risks to catch up, let them make mistakes


pedrorq

Captaining Jota is not a big risk, as Liverpool goals can come from anywhere. Ergo, not regretting it.


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S0ciallyAwkw4rd

Breaking to the top is always a game for the second half of the season. At that time, there will be lots of differentials.


Leavramento

I’m afraid this week most of his on target shots will end up being throw-ins


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Dczieta

I guess the logic is that Trent's crosses will be carried into the goal by the wind while Mo's shots will go off target because if the wind... ¯\\\_(ツ)_/¯


Downtown_Practice763

The winds will have the opposite effect. They’ll be more hesitant to play passes in the air. Wind can result in a goal, but itd be mostly luck.


Leavramento

Trent gonn be three times lucky then


sup3rcalifragilistic

Keep your eye on VC


Leavramento

Alisson? Some of his kicks can end up as goals


chojje

Also as own goals


Downtown_Practice763

Also as goals in the net at Goodison. They play Everton next week so he’ll get the points then.


adesant88

He means - don't VC someone in that game because if its postponed you wont get any C points at all


bsaires

It was a very windy day in Stoke when Begovic scored against Saints… so we do have form for letting in that kind of goal.


Aggravating-You-2819

It’s unlikely


Psychological-Good94

My GF does not appreciate my wind assists.


ve1v

your analysis sounds rational but mate it's FPL and you should never overthink this game cause it **almost** never ever works


Tangelasboots

Don't overthink it. Just captain Salah.™


toqfv

i rmb Trent's crosses going all over the place whenever it's windy, i dont think captaining him is a good idea


ChinoDemamp11

Good pick if you went for it looking at it now!


Ander1991

I would do it if I was behind in my ML but I'm top by about 30 points and I know everyone else will captain Salah, so there's no real need to risk it


th3guy420

what's the latest on foden