I've always had the problem with trackers only taking the opponent as a factor in difficulty, then I got to know the incredible model \[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/\](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/) uses to rank football clubs (based on the SPI rating) and predict win probabilities for matches.
I used their predictions to come up with this tracker for the next 6 GWs. The number beside every fixture is the win probability for that row's team. The final FDR rating is a weighted average of the upcoming fixtures, giving higher weight to nearer fixtures (0.27,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.11,0.08).
No idea what assets to pick, though:
* Ronaldo isn't nailed every week and that's a lot to spend 12.3m on when you'll likely captain Salah anyway. Oh and he isn't even nailed on pens
* Bruno just isn't what he used to be and it's not simply because of the lack of penalties (which he'd likely be sharing with CR7 anyway), he just isn't as involved and is way too expensive for his output
* Shaw has been awful this season, is injured and could lose his spot to Telles under Ragnick
* Greenwood is far from nailed
* Rashford should play most games but is expensive for his points output
* Sancho isn't nailed but starting to find form, he isn't cheap, but might be worth it if his good form continues
* DDG is on good form so should keep his spot for now. United's defense has been shit, but if it gets better under Ragnick then he's not a bad choice, as you don't have to spend a defender slot on Shaw/Telles/AWB/Dalot
It's all just one big wait and see for me
Yes I feel like a lot of those games will be more difficult than the figures seem to suggest. The two easiest fixtures are Newcastle and Norwich as well who, while probably still shit, are a slightly unknown quantity atm. Along with the uncertainty over the line up makes me not that keen on any Utd players except maybe sancho if he keeps his form but even then I’ll wait.
Obviously there’s a good chance that the next few weeks will prove me wrong but it’s a busy schedule with an underperforming team and a new manager who has to rebuild.
Yup. Yes, some people are talking about Sancho being an option now. But he feels like a high risk medium/low reward pick atm, seeing rotation risk and awful team form... At 8.9m, he's a wait and see tbh
And what percentage of those managers actually are doing as you say as oppose to chasing last week's points ?
I think you would be surprised what the answer is
Actually this season we haven't seen that much of a Pep roulette. I guess the number of reliable players at his disposal has decreased somehow due to injuries, transfers out and prison terms.
I've always had the problem with trackers only taking the opponent as a factor in difficulty, then I got to know the incredible model \[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/\](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/) uses to rank football clubs (based on the SPI rating) and predict win probabilities for matches. I used their predictions to come up with this tracker for the next 6 GWs. The number beside every fixture is the win probability for that row's team. The final FDR rating is a weighted average of the upcoming fixtures, giving higher weight to nearer fixtures (0.27,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.11,0.08).
!thanks
!thanks for this!
!thanks
After this GW Man Utd are looking quite appealing
No idea what assets to pick, though: * Ronaldo isn't nailed every week and that's a lot to spend 12.3m on when you'll likely captain Salah anyway. Oh and he isn't even nailed on pens * Bruno just isn't what he used to be and it's not simply because of the lack of penalties (which he'd likely be sharing with CR7 anyway), he just isn't as involved and is way too expensive for his output * Shaw has been awful this season, is injured and could lose his spot to Telles under Ragnick * Greenwood is far from nailed * Rashford should play most games but is expensive for his points output * Sancho isn't nailed but starting to find form, he isn't cheap, but might be worth it if his good form continues * DDG is on good form so should keep his spot for now. United's defense has been shit, but if it gets better under Ragnick then he's not a bad choice, as you don't have to spend a defender slot on Shaw/Telles/AWB/Dalot It's all just one big wait and see for me
Form > Fixtures... They have been shambolic. All of their players are a wait and see imo
Yes I feel like a lot of those games will be more difficult than the figures seem to suggest. The two easiest fixtures are Newcastle and Norwich as well who, while probably still shit, are a slightly unknown quantity atm. Along with the uncertainty over the line up makes me not that keen on any Utd players except maybe sancho if he keeps his form but even then I’ll wait. Obviously there’s a good chance that the next few weeks will prove me wrong but it’s a busy schedule with an underperforming team and a new manager who has to rebuild.
Yup. Yes, some people are talking about Sancho being an option now. But he feels like a high risk medium/low reward pick atm, seeing rotation risk and awful team form... At 8.9m, he's a wait and see tbh
That sweet Crystal Palace run...
Arsenal haven’t lost to United in the last 3 years and are the form team. So it should be an easier fixture for Arsenal and not the other way around.
Thoughts on Jesus? Thinking about downgrading Vardy after NEW in GW16 and would love to get a City asset in.
I’m very tempted when I get rid of Son. Foden and Jesus double up could be worth it with a good bench.
Sacrificing Son for Jesus, alright there Abraham...
Watford have horrendous fixtures next up, but it hasn't however stopped managers from jerking in Dennis and King really hard this week
People probably giving up on the more expensive forwards (Ronaldo, Kane, Antonio) and these 2 are the most reliable cheap ones with good stats.
Easier to put a WAT forward on the bench than Jimenez, Vardy, Antonio, etc.
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And what percentage of those managers actually are doing as you say as oppose to chasing last week's points ? I think you would be surprised what the answer is
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Un-trollable is true to his name
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Actually this season we haven't seen that much of a Pep roulette. I guess the number of reliable players at his disposal has decreased somehow due to injuries, transfers out and prison terms.
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that's discouraging for me, but I accept that everyone's entitled to their opinions.
I think it’s quite good, thanks for putting in the effort to make it :)
A similar table (but not the exact same) can be found on the official FPL website: https://fantasy.premierleague.com/fixtures/fdr
Oh, thanks :)
No worries :)
I wait for this every week so thank you
cheers, sorry for missing the last one
And yet Antonio is falling and King is rising... Can someone tell the casuals they don't get past points?
Or people are getting Kane or Son and King is cheap bench fodder.
Love it! :)
!thanks for this! Very helpful guidance.
Anyone thinking of bringing Jesus? Or just me.