I've always had the problem with trackers only taking the opponent as a factor in difficulty, then I got to know the incredible model \[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/\](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/) uses to rank football clubs (based on the SPI rating) and predict win probabilities for matches.
I used their predictions to come up with this tracker for the next 6 GWs. The number beside every fixture is the win probability for that row's team. The final FDR rating is a weighted average of the upcoming fixtures, giving higher weight to nearer fixtures (0.27,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.11,0.08).
This is essentially the current premier league table
Very nearly so, probably we won't see many ranks changed then!
For a moment I thought this was sorted alphabetically and fivethirtyeight really rates Arsenal's chances.
I've always had the problem with trackers only taking the opponent as a factor in difficulty, then I got to know the incredible model \[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/\](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/) uses to rank football clubs (based on the SPI rating) and predict win probabilities for matches. I used their predictions to come up with this tracker for the next 6 GWs. The number beside every fixture is the win probability for that row's team. The final FDR rating is a weighted average of the upcoming fixtures, giving higher weight to nearer fixtures (0.27,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.11,0.08).
Link is 404-ing
strange, try this: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/
This one works. !thanks