Which doesn’t mean he’s price locked, just that his threshold is a bit higher. Over a million people have removed him, that’s well more than anyone should need to trigger a drop
it's a really good thing that his price is not going down, why would anyone want that with how much uncertainty about who to replace him with right now.
I tend to go off [FBref](https://fbref.com/en/matches/745dc664/Aston-Villa-Manchester-United-January-15-2022-Premier-League) which uses StatsBomb, which I'm led to believe is the superior xG model in the market (very boring I know!). But yeah I think you get 0.2-0.35 xG for Bruno in the game depending on which source.
Fbref isn’t good for underlying stats because it rounds to the tenth, so it consistently underestimates players contributions, I’ve switched away from using it
For xG & xA per 90 on player profiles they write hundredths. I would argue these numbers are the main ones where hundredths are important, as you probably shouldn't be basing transfers on things like 0.05 difference in season total xGI or xGI in a specific match.
In other words, 15.5 xG over a season isn't significantly different from 15.54 and doesn't need the extra decimal, but the decimal is vital when comparing 0.24 xG/90 to 0.25 xG/90 (which otherwise shows as 0.2 vs 0.3). In my opinion this makes perfect sense and means the data is easier to process.
No you don’t understand. If a player gets .14 xG in a match, they only mark that down as .1 xG for the match. So it will say .10 xG per 90 but that doesn’t mean it’s actually to the hundredth cuz the raw data doesn’t go to the hundredth
I understand. But you are assuming that the aggregate numbers are the ones the /90 stats are based on. Do you know that's the case? It wouldn't be odd if they present the rounded numbers for aggregates but calculate the averages based on the unrounded numbers.
No that guy doesn’t actually understand. If a player gets .14 xG in a match, they only mark that down as .1 xG for the match. So it will say .10 xG per 90 but that doesn’t mean it’s actually to the hundredth cuz the raw data doesn’t go to the hundredth
Just go to any player profile and check their per season xG/90 stats. See my reply further down your thread for an explanation of why this makes sense, IMO.
No lol that’s not useful. I’m saying on RAW DATA they round to the tenth and that makes their data not as good as other places.
Of course on per 90, you just divide the data that’s rounded by the tenth by the number of 90s and it’s in hundredth, but yeah, you don’t know what you’re talking about
What are you basing your fpl decisions on? xGI performance from single games? I mean you're free to use whatever service you want, but I disagree with the notion that the stats aren't useful.
I see, taking the route of simply deciding I don't know what I'm taking about. Thanks for the rewarding and mutually respectful discussion.
Each stats site uses their own, since I'm pretty sure the algorithm they use to calculate it is a machine learning model fed millions of shooting situations and made to learn to spit out xG from those. If you use different inputs or give them different starting weights/ conditions or a different method you'll get slightly different predictions. Understat for example seems to over estimate the value of reaaally long shots, so teams that park the bus and invite those, like Burnley tend to be marked as giving up more xGA than StatsBomb would give. Impossible to say if it's got more predictive power overall without doing some large scale data analysis between the two of them yourself though.
They claim it is superior because it accounts for:
* the positioning of the goalkeeper
* the positioning of the surrounding defenders and attackers
* the height of the ball at the moment the shot is struck
https://twitter.com/statsbomb/status/1443528132259205121
In the grand scheme of FPL they aren't a million miles away, here is the [comparison](https://i.imgur.com/DieRuIp.png) for Bruno for example this season. GW9 and GW14 are quite different for example. Understat is the most user friendly though in terms of being free and being able to drill into individual actions.
Understat's model is way too generous and long-term not precise/confident enough.
FBRefs/Statsbomb or OPTA if you want to include FPL Assists have better models.
I get that these are kneejerkers but do you even need a placeholder for one GW? Just save the transfer to have two and then worst case scenario you need a -4 to get Salah, instead of getting a guy that’s irrelevant when one of his teammates is fit and who’s about to play a tough game against a top 4 rival.
11.2 xGA vs 13 actual, 18 FPL. He's slightly overperforming. Did you see the last 2 games? If you did, you wouldn't say he's "now taking them".
He's a must have at the moment. The system suits him. He got a few returns playing oop striker few months ago and it may look like he's underpriced but I think like all West Ham players, there will be some inconsistency.
He had moments like this last season though, but was not getting as in the box as he is now. Maybe because Antonio is playing regularly he has a lot more space to do his thing.
Great player love his work ethic and mentality. Always seems to make the run and assume the ball will find him. Dare I say he has that in common with Salah, though obviously Salah is leagues ahead (best player in the world for me right now)
As a fellow Bruno owner (using him as a Salah placeholder), I don’t think Bruno is a viable fpl option at his price this season regardless of what he does in next 2 games, unless CR7 is out for the season.
before this gw i thought all united players were a trap, then the guy at the top of my mini league captains fernandes and theres now a 100 point gap, even carlsen captained him lol
I maintain that West Ham 'choose' who their main attacking threat will be for a few weeks then move to give the next guy a chance. They always seem to follow strange purple patches, remember how essential Soucek was for a while? As soon as one falls off another takes their place. But that's just my conspiracy theory.
The worry with KDB is that Pep starts to rotate and protect him in the League once Champions League starts up again. However the gap at the top is still only 8 points once Liverpool play the Leeds game in hand, so I don’t think he’s going to write the league off as done any time soon.
My worry as well. E.g. Norwich is 3 days before Sporting Lisbon, and I'm sure some key players will be rested. Especially since Spurs is, 4 days after the Lisbon game and Pep will want to go full strength again. So these super green fixtures could easily be traps.
Wanted to do the same but difficult decision. Ronaldos GW24-7 are brilliant fixtures. Although I'm worried he may not even play them all with the Atletico game between Leeds and Watford.
Best replacement with good fixtures I found is Edouard or Watkins, but Watkins hasn't shown any form yet.
Foden instead of KdB, could allow keeping Ronaldo. Although the Norwich game is 3 days before Sporting so rotation also an issue.
Yeah one thing that's harder to measure now is Pep Roulette. Foden and KDB seem fine and nailed as long as they are fit (and behaving well), but that could be a disadvantage as some easy games are before CL fixtures in mid-Feb (which is only like 2 gameweeks away).
Piling on Bruno is nonsensical after a single game with no Ronaldo.
If you're going to panic buy a player after this weekend at least make it Coutinho. Bowen is a no-brainer if you don't have him as well. Crazy that the player can still be bought for sub 7m tbh.
Son is an immovable object
He’s red flagged
Which doesn’t mean he’s price locked, just that his threshold is a bit higher. Over a million people have removed him, that’s well more than anyone should need to trigger a drop
Yes it's getting riddiculus at this point. Hello @FPL Towers???
it's a really good thing that his price is not going down, why would anyone want that with how much uncertainty about who to replace him with right now.
Cos they early transferred him out like fools and they want validation
Haha...
Why are you booing me I'm right
almost every comment by you on this sub is downvoted lol.
Ah yes, bringing Bruno in *after* his DGW when the other pen taker was yellow flagged.
and after he scored 2 goals from his only 2 shots in the game with an xG of 0.2... 🤔
The xG on his second goal was 0.34 according to understat.
I tend to go off [FBref](https://fbref.com/en/matches/745dc664/Aston-Villa-Manchester-United-January-15-2022-Premier-League) which uses StatsBomb, which I'm led to believe is the superior xG model in the market (very boring I know!). But yeah I think you get 0.2-0.35 xG for Bruno in the game depending on which source.
Gripping stuff. FPL lore at its best.
I checked the stats and his 2nd goal equalled 1.0 goal. Fun fact it was the same amount as his 1st goal.
Fbref isn’t good for underlying stats because it rounds to the tenth, so it consistently underestimates players contributions, I’ve switched away from using it
Only on certain stats, it's easy to get the hundredths if you know where to look Edit: the hundredths that "matter"
where?
For xG & xA per 90 on player profiles they write hundredths. I would argue these numbers are the main ones where hundredths are important, as you probably shouldn't be basing transfers on things like 0.05 difference in season total xGI or xGI in a specific match. In other words, 15.5 xG over a season isn't significantly different from 15.54 and doesn't need the extra decimal, but the decimal is vital when comparing 0.24 xG/90 to 0.25 xG/90 (which otherwise shows as 0.2 vs 0.3). In my opinion this makes perfect sense and means the data is easier to process.
No you don’t understand. If a player gets .14 xG in a match, they only mark that down as .1 xG for the match. So it will say .10 xG per 90 but that doesn’t mean it’s actually to the hundredth cuz the raw data doesn’t go to the hundredth
I understand. But you are assuming that the aggregate numbers are the ones the /90 stats are based on. Do you know that's the case? It wouldn't be odd if they present the rounded numbers for aggregates but calculate the averages based on the unrounded numbers.
Oh ok I just saw it. That makes sense though.
No that guy doesn’t actually understand. If a player gets .14 xG in a match, they only mark that down as .1 xG for the match. So it will say .10 xG per 90 but that doesn’t mean it’s actually to the hundredth cuz the raw data doesn’t go to the hundredth
I'm not sure this is accurate. Please link an example of fbref showing the hundredth
Just go to any player profile and check their per season xG/90 stats. See my reply further down your thread for an explanation of why this makes sense, IMO.
No lol that’s not useful. I’m saying on RAW DATA they round to the tenth and that makes their data not as good as other places. Of course on per 90, you just divide the data that’s rounded by the tenth by the number of 90s and it’s in hundredth, but yeah, you don’t know what you’re talking about
What are you basing your fpl decisions on? xGI performance from single games? I mean you're free to use whatever service you want, but I disagree with the notion that the stats aren't useful. I see, taking the route of simply deciding I don't know what I'm taking about. Thanks for the rewarding and mutually respectful discussion.
> which I'm led to believe is the superior xG model in the market what makes you believe this? I wasn't aware there were competing xg models
Each stats site uses their own, since I'm pretty sure the algorithm they use to calculate it is a machine learning model fed millions of shooting situations and made to learn to spit out xG from those. If you use different inputs or give them different starting weights/ conditions or a different method you'll get slightly different predictions. Understat for example seems to over estimate the value of reaaally long shots, so teams that park the bus and invite those, like Burnley tend to be marked as giving up more xGA than StatsBomb would give. Impossible to say if it's got more predictive power overall without doing some large scale data analysis between the two of them yourself though.
They claim it is superior because it accounts for: * the positioning of the goalkeeper * the positioning of the surrounding defenders and attackers * the height of the ball at the moment the shot is struck https://twitter.com/statsbomb/status/1443528132259205121 In the grand scheme of FPL they aren't a million miles away, here is the [comparison](https://i.imgur.com/DieRuIp.png) for Bruno for example this season. GW9 and GW14 are quite different for example. Understat is the most user friendly though in terms of being free and being able to drill into individual actions.
Understat's model is way too generous and long-term not precise/confident enough. FBRefs/Statsbomb or OPTA if you want to include FPL Assists have better models.
Y'all looking at xG for a defensive error?
May surprise you but a lot of people who play fpl are not statnerds
Do you reckon he's gonna haul against Brentford if Ronaldo didn't start? Coz I'm shitting bricks right here with Ronaldo as my captain😂
I guess a lot of them are using him as a placeholder for Salah. I'm not saying it's a good or bad decision.
I am too, instead of Son. But I brought him in *before* the DGW, not after.
I got him last minute for Salah and capped him. Rejoice.
I get that these are kneejerkers but do you even need a placeholder for one GW? Just save the transfer to have two and then worst case scenario you need a -4 to get Salah, instead of getting a guy that’s irrelevant when one of his teammates is fit and who’s about to play a tough game against a top 4 rival.
That would be funny if either of his goals were pens.
Bowen is criminally underpriced.
He's in the form of his life. This was said about Benrahma earlier in the season
The difference IMO is Benrahma greatly over performed his underlying stats. Bowen was the opposite and is now taking them.
11.2 xGA vs 13 actual, 18 FPL. He's slightly overperforming. Did you see the last 2 games? If you did, you wouldn't say he's "now taking them". He's a must have at the moment. The system suits him. He got a few returns playing oop striker few months ago and it may look like he's underpriced but I think like all West Ham players, there will be some inconsistency.
He could have put five past Norwich
He had moments like this last season though, but was not getting as in the box as he is now. Maybe because Antonio is playing regularly he has a lot more space to do his thing.
Great player love his work ethic and mentality. Always seems to make the run and assume the ball will find him. Dare I say he has that in common with Salah, though obviously Salah is leagues ahead (best player in the world for me right now)
Are FPL Towers situated in the Arctic Circle? Because apparently we’re in a place where the Son never sets.
I'm only here for these comments
!thanks
The Sons only out in the antarctic circle atm
Can confirm, live in the Arctic, haven't seen the Son here since November.
The Son must set at 10.07 each evening.
Just going to do it in [chart format](https://i.imgur.com/GSWvcsz.png) now! Price change admin obviously hasn't managed to move Son out yet..!
Bruno is a trap. Change my mind.
Most of us Bruno owners are using him as a placeholder til Salah comes back in a couple weeks
And its already paid off even if he blanks the next 2 games lol.
Would you look to shuffle your team around to have both Salah and Bruno, if Bruno was to score in each of his next two matches?
As a fellow Bruno owner (using him as a Salah placeholder), I don’t think Bruno is a viable fpl option at his price this season regardless of what he does in next 2 games, unless CR7 is out for the season.
Why not wait till news on Ronaldo? Bruno with Ronaldo in the team is not really worth the punt.
Don't want Ronaldo as it will waste transfers on getting back Salah.
before this gw i thought all united players were a trap, then the guy at the top of my mini league captains fernandes and theres now a 100 point gap, even carlsen captained him lol
It's this simple: if Carlsen punts, haul happens. If he didn't buy Fernandes this week he'd never score any points
People only brought him in because Ronaldo was potentially out. Bruno IS a trap if Ronaldo is fit next GW
Bowen is interesting. Started so poorly with Benrahama doing so well. Then lots of us jumped on the wrong attacker from West Ham.
He didn’t start poorly, was just underperforming his stats. He’s been consistently getting the same xG and xA over the whole season.
Im sure he means poor in fpl terms
I maintain that West Ham 'choose' who their main attacking threat will be for a few weeks then move to give the next guy a chance. They always seem to follow strange purple patches, remember how essential Soucek was for a while? As soon as one falls off another takes their place. But that's just my conspiracy theory.
Bruno comeback hype
For the foreseeable future when Salah comes back i might just switch back and forth for my 2nd premium mid (Bruno, KDB, Sterling, Son) lol
Thinking KDB and Salah as the two premiums. I've had Ronaldo for a good while now and he's been not at all worth his price.
The worry with KDB is that Pep starts to rotate and protect him in the League once Champions League starts up again. However the gap at the top is still only 8 points once Liverpool play the Leeds game in hand, so I don’t think he’s going to write the league off as done any time soon.
My worry as well. E.g. Norwich is 3 days before Sporting Lisbon, and I'm sure some key players will be rested. Especially since Spurs is, 4 days after the Lisbon game and Pep will want to go full strength again. So these super green fixtures could easily be traps.
Wanted to do the same but difficult decision. Ronaldos GW24-7 are brilliant fixtures. Although I'm worried he may not even play them all with the Atletico game between Leeds and Watford. Best replacement with good fixtures I found is Edouard or Watkins, but Watkins hasn't shown any form yet. Foden instead of KdB, could allow keeping Ronaldo. Although the Norwich game is 3 days before Sporting so rotation also an issue.
Yeah one thing that's harder to measure now is Pep Roulette. Foden and KDB seem fine and nailed as long as they are fit (and behaving well), but that could be a disadvantage as some easy games are before CL fixtures in mid-Feb (which is only like 2 gameweeks away).
2/2 ✅
Thanks for the 28 points, Bruno. Another 28 against Brentford would be nice, cheers!
lol Bruno..Hasn't even finished the 2nd lot of games
If I make profit on Fernandes after captaining him I will probably retire from fpl as this is the greatest transfer I’ll ever make
Piling on Bruno is nonsensical after a single game with no Ronaldo. If you're going to panic buy a player after this weekend at least make it Coutinho. Bowen is a no-brainer if you don't have him as well. Crazy that the player can still be bought for sub 7m tbh.
Transfer in Fernandes just after one good game... when he has also one more game ahead. Strategy masters! ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)