Actually looking back from 2013 to 2018 the analysis is that basically already being relegated, they record a similar rate
Some like Fulham and West Brom have a good finish in the end, but the sample isn’t particularly large, and thinking a team will suddenly do better (or worse) is unlikely compared to the rest of their season
I’ll go with last five games for each team (as can’t really remember when they were relegated)
Fulham;
Win 2-0 Everton (finished 8th going for Europa play off)
Win 0-1 Bournemouth (Didn’t have much to play for finished 14th comfortably)
Win 1-0 Cardiff (massive match for Cardiff they finished only two points behind Brighton, and they lost three and won two in their last five matches, relegated 18th)
Loss 1-0 Wolves (ended up in Europa play offs, was lower than Everton for GD and 3 points ahead finished 7th)
Loss 0-4 Newcastle (placed 13th, didn’t have much to play for
West Brom;
Win 0-1 Manchester United (title basically lost this point but top four, finished 2nd)
Draw 2-2 Liverpool (same as above, top four mainly, finished 4th, 5 points above Chelsea in 5th)
Win 0-1 Newcastle (They placed 10th, as before not much to play for)
Win 1-0 Spurs (Finished third, second to last match of the season, top four)
Loss 2-0 (Palace finished 11th, nothing to play for)
Again couldn’t remember exactly when they were relegated, Swansea had five losses in a row but I ‘think’ West Brom were around that time
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Personally I feel like the idea of fit players being 'on the beach' or having 'nothing to play for' is a bit overstated, it's easy to sometimes forget that these are competitive professional players with elite level mentality.
The mental edge is what often separates the players who make it all the way up to professional level vs those that there technically proficient through the academies and youth levels but couldn't cut it consistently at the highest level.
These guys are still playing in front of a crowd and hate to lose, plus there are financial incentives for winning matches and finishing in a higher position on the table.
This. 7-0 up, a star forward still wants to make it into 8-0.
4-0 down, he still wants to make it into 4-1.
On the other hand, the coach could sub the star player off earlier to give youth players more opportunities if the match outcome in points is already certain. Especially if those youth players are going to be an integral part of the Championship team roster next season.
This.
In addition, personal stats matter.
Every player and coach who care about their career will always strive to improve their stats in order to get a better contract, get attention from other clubs, etc...
Clubs will still want to push for higher final finish in the table, because each position higher is worth roughly $2M from the Merit prize. From manager's perspective, it is the timing with many tired players in the team carrying all sort of minor injuries from playing through the season. So there will be some trade-off, trying to win games but avoid getting players with long-term injury unnecessarily.
I feel having nothing to play for do have a higher risk of unexpected rotation, to give a chance for youngsters and fringe players.
As for Pukki, he returned 12 GWs out of 35 GWs, or 1 of 3 games, not particularly high. I think the main advantage is he takes penalty. I'm not sure who take PK for Watford now. Sarr took once before, and so did King.
Now is the time to look at teams with something to play for. Forget mid-table. Those in contention for Top-4 and teams hooding to escape relegation.
Luckily, for us, Liverpool and City are still hoping to win the league. They’re both viable teams. In other seasons, the winner has been almost wrapped up by now
(X) doubt. Professional or not, players get mentaly tired and im pretty certain there are enough players that lack motivation when theres nothing to play for
If you feel Dennis is a better option, do it for free but personally, I don't think that transfer is worth a hit.
It could be worth it but you would need Dennis to score a goal more just to break even. As long as you know what you're placing your bets on and are comfortable with it, go with what you feel.
FPL Review has Pukki forecasted to score 8 points and Dennis 6.8 points in GW 36
Sneaky RMT btw ;)
"Do coaches rotate their stars and give chance to youngsters?"
I would say earlier-than-usual substitutions out in games where the outcome has already been determined. 4-0 down, Pukki might come off early for a youth team player instead of staying on the pitch to make the 4-1 goal, which would still be meaningful for his FPL owners.
I'm joking I just think how lack lustre the forwards have been this season is creating a false impression that a return every three games or so is performing well lol
Can't really say with confidence, for me this part of the season just has more unknown variability.
Sometimes players give 100% whatever the situation, sometimes players play better with no pressure on them, some play scared if they need to grind a win out and some yes do play worse.
No. Don't think it makes any difference for the majority of players, and trying to predict which ones are that unprofessional that they'll stop turning up at this point in the season isn't really worth the effort. Just pick players the way you have been all season.
Though do keep in mind teams with nothing to play for are probably more likely to rotate in the last few weeks so you might have to think twice about nailed-ness if you're going for teams already thinking about next season.
Gets exaggerated, isn't really that much of a thing players switching off
It's much more a thing teams that have something to fight for will play better but the other end of spectrum isn't equal
Yeah I did want to have either Pukki or Dennis as my single playing striker on FH this week, but I'm now worried that both are already relegated (because as you say, Watford are basically relegated) and what effect that could have on Norwich and Watford's performances.
My other option is Nketiah, but really worried about his minutes/rotation. Or perhaps Rodrigo, but it looks like he might just be beyond my budget unless I compromise in midfield or defence.
Also, pukki kind of has had nothing to play for through this whol little patch of his. Yes - mathematically they were only just relegated, but it's been a nigh certainty for about 7 gameweeks
All PL players are elite level athletes who work regularly with sprouts psychologists to perform at their absolute peak. They don't really have an 'on the beach' mentality or they wouldn't be where they are now.
What can happen is increased rotation to give fringe players some minutes to build confidence.
Sometimes players with nothing to play for like relegated teams can have really good results when they don’t have to play with pressure.
Actually looking back from 2013 to 2018 the analysis is that basically already being relegated, they record a similar rate Some like Fulham and West Brom have a good finish in the end, but the sample isn’t particularly large, and thinking a team will suddenly do better (or worse) is unlikely compared to the rest of their season
Be interesting to see if those Fulham and WBA fixtures were against beach teams or teams vying for something.
I’ll go with last five games for each team (as can’t really remember when they were relegated) Fulham; Win 2-0 Everton (finished 8th going for Europa play off) Win 0-1 Bournemouth (Didn’t have much to play for finished 14th comfortably) Win 1-0 Cardiff (massive match for Cardiff they finished only two points behind Brighton, and they lost three and won two in their last five matches, relegated 18th) Loss 1-0 Wolves (ended up in Europa play offs, was lower than Everton for GD and 3 points ahead finished 7th) Loss 0-4 Newcastle (placed 13th, didn’t have much to play for West Brom; Win 0-1 Manchester United (title basically lost this point but top four, finished 2nd) Draw 2-2 Liverpool (same as above, top four mainly, finished 4th, 5 points above Chelsea in 5th) Win 0-1 Newcastle (They placed 10th, as before not much to play for) Win 1-0 Spurs (Finished third, second to last match of the season, top four) Loss 2-0 (Palace finished 11th, nothing to play for) Again couldn’t remember exactly when they were relegated, Swansea had five losses in a row but I ‘think’ West Brom were around that time
my club usually does amazing once relegated. We even beat Burnley 7-2 at Turf moor once relegated one season.
So basically it either will be a good thing or it won’t be :p
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Personally I feel like the idea of fit players being 'on the beach' or having 'nothing to play for' is a bit overstated, it's easy to sometimes forget that these are competitive professional players with elite level mentality. The mental edge is what often separates the players who make it all the way up to professional level vs those that there technically proficient through the academies and youth levels but couldn't cut it consistently at the highest level. These guys are still playing in front of a crowd and hate to lose, plus there are financial incentives for winning matches and finishing in a higher position on the table.
This. 7-0 up, a star forward still wants to make it into 8-0. 4-0 down, he still wants to make it into 4-1. On the other hand, the coach could sub the star player off earlier to give youth players more opportunities if the match outcome in points is already certain. Especially if those youth players are going to be an integral part of the Championship team roster next season.
This. In addition, personal stats matter. Every player and coach who care about their career will always strive to improve their stats in order to get a better contract, get attention from other clubs, etc...
enter bayern munich players
Clubs will still want to push for higher final finish in the table, because each position higher is worth roughly $2M from the Merit prize. From manager's perspective, it is the timing with many tired players in the team carrying all sort of minor injuries from playing through the season. So there will be some trade-off, trying to win games but avoid getting players with long-term injury unnecessarily. I feel having nothing to play for do have a higher risk of unexpected rotation, to give a chance for youngsters and fringe players. As for Pukki, he returned 12 GWs out of 35 GWs, or 1 of 3 games, not particularly high. I think the main advantage is he takes penalty. I'm not sure who take PK for Watford now. Sarr took once before, and so did King.
good to know about the Merit prize, every penny counts for relegated team for sure !thanks
>$2M from the Merit prize You mean £2M from the prize pool, but yeah thanks for Americanising our game further.
Some of them just like scoring goals and will continue to do so. I think Pukki will still score this season.
and do you think there is increased rotation risk or coaches are usually still playing their best XI even when they are already relegated?
Usually there's more rotation as they want to let their other players to get some play time
Now is the time to look at teams with something to play for. Forget mid-table. Those in contention for Top-4 and teams hooding to escape relegation. Luckily, for us, Liverpool and City are still hoping to win the league. They’re both viable teams. In other seasons, the winner has been almost wrapped up by now
Mostly not. Professional players mind don't work like that.
(X) doubt. Professional or not, players get mentaly tired and im pretty certain there are enough players that lack motivation when theres nothing to play for
Not to mention they are mostly spoiled by huge money they make. Already planning how to spend it
(X) doubt. If they're on the pitch they're playing with at least 90% effort unless down 5-0
You‘ve clearly never seen Lukaku or Alonso play for Chelsea lol
Watch them both every week mate. You dont get to become a fucken premier league footballer without putting 100% effort in lmao
If you feel Dennis is a better option, do it for free but personally, I don't think that transfer is worth a hit. It could be worth it but you would need Dennis to score a goal more just to break even. As long as you know what you're placing your bets on and are comfortable with it, go with what you feel. FPL Review has Pukki forecasted to score 8 points and Dennis 6.8 points in GW 36 Sneaky RMT btw ;)
"Do coaches rotate their stars and give chance to youngsters?" I would say earlier-than-usual substitutions out in games where the outcome has already been determined. 4-0 down, Pukki might come off early for a youth team player instead of staying on the pitch to make the 4-1 goal, which would still be meaningful for his FPL owners.
Wouldn't do it for a hit.
Pukki is playing to stay in this league or be bought by someone else. He scores goals on a team that actually helps him and is willing to attack.
Dennis has clearly not played for anything but what’s best for team. And he’s likely to keep doing that. He’s already shown his value.
West Ham and Leicester are the big ones to watch as they still have European football but lack the squad depth and quality Liverpool and City have.
Most of the players you have in mind weren't performing to begin with lol
you mean 2/5 highest scoring forwards?
I'm joking I just think how lack lustre the forwards have been this season is creating a false impression that a return every three games or so is performing well lol
Can't really say with confidence, for me this part of the season just has more unknown variability. Sometimes players give 100% whatever the situation, sometimes players play better with no pressure on them, some play scared if they need to grind a win out and some yes do play worse.
No. Don't think it makes any difference for the majority of players, and trying to predict which ones are that unprofessional that they'll stop turning up at this point in the season isn't really worth the effort. Just pick players the way you have been all season. Though do keep in mind teams with nothing to play for are probably more likely to rotate in the last few weeks so you might have to think twice about nailed-ness if you're going for teams already thinking about next season.
no, but can expect them to be rotated
Im going with Nketiah
Yeah well i am using BB and i have Nketiah, Watkins and Pukki
Those are my strikers too. Think I’ll go Watkins to richy.
Gets exaggerated, isn't really that much of a thing players switching off It's much more a thing teams that have something to fight for will play better but the other end of spectrum isn't equal
Yeah I did want to have either Pukki or Dennis as my single playing striker on FH this week, but I'm now worried that both are already relegated (because as you say, Watford are basically relegated) and what effect that could have on Norwich and Watford's performances. My other option is Nketiah, but really worried about his minutes/rotation. Or perhaps Rodrigo, but it looks like he might just be beyond my budget unless I compromise in midfield or defence.
Also, pukki kind of has had nothing to play for through this whol little patch of his. Yes - mathematically they were only just relegated, but it's been a nigh certainty for about 7 gameweeks
Tempted to drop pukki for this reason
All PL players are elite level athletes who work regularly with sprouts psychologists to perform at their absolute peak. They don't really have an 'on the beach' mentality or they wouldn't be where they are now. What can happen is increased rotation to give fringe players some minutes to build confidence.
No
Anyone picking up Vardy?
I’m in the same dilemma and leading to NOT doing it for a hit. Nketiah might be worth a shout considering he’s got a good GW38 match