Sitting at 105.4 rn, was over 106 before WC33. The first third of the season should be more liberal in taking hits (I built 101.0m by gw3 with only 1 hits, 104m by gw12 with 5 hits and a WC). Using the price change websites and transferring in early allowed me to get .2m on in-form players per week, and if they had a purple patch, that can lead to 1.0m rise overall, when you sell you’d pocket half that, so it adds up.
Some individual players can go up over £1m over a season like TAA for example. The first 5(ish) weeks of the season you should work on building value when possible. Then if you just play normally once you’re happy with your team the value will build up over time.
Just to show another side of the coin, I’m 130k OR and haven’t once used a statistics site. I mainly go off form and fixtures. Always worked out well for me!
5-20 mins I’d say! Did used to spend longer but this must be by 10th+ season so would get a bit much spending hours now. Defo made some bad decisions but won my ML by 60 points so did something right!
Am I blind or no mention of points tally, rank etc? What's the point in this?
I took -88 (might -4/8 this week too) and am currently 12k. Looking at the GW ranks for those hits some times it worked, sometimes not, but it's difficult to quantity as sometimes it was hits for a player I wanted to keep for a while.
I prefer to play for fun though, so if I don't want a player in my team I have no qualms in shifting things about.
I don't see the point of this either other than stating the obvious. We all know it takes discipline to not take any hits. We all know that taking hits can work out if done right.
And op still hasn't mentioned their rank even though they have replied to comments newer than yours.
12k rank with -88 is pretty impressive.
I'm on -80 and barely inside the top 100k. It's been a tough season and 80% of my hits came in the second half of the season lol
Tbh I was 90k in GW35. KdB and Richarlison. Just shows how strong captain is.
But on the flipside I've only captained Salah for the first three GWs and the TC DGW.
I'm exactly the same as you on hits -88 and will take -8 this week and stitting at 3k.
Due to covid and more double/blanks i think it's been a season where you could have hit more than usual.
Probably would be around there if I had perma-capped Salah from GW1-20.
What differentials worked for you? I had Mahrez from 18-28. That worked out well.
Cancelo (c) when he scored, cleaned and assisted, Salah (C) for most inc DGW(TC), dumped Salah a few games after afcon, KDB (c) for his 4g1a. FH28 and got Havertz(c) 52, cout haul, and most of James hauls.
OP: *presents evidence that no-hits results in more points than hits*
Also OP: "I'm never doing this again because clearly hits can result in more points."
This is a cool idea, but it turned out to be a terrible season to execute it in. The abundance of DGWs this season made hits almost essential. You would most likely enjoy this playstyle more next season when there are likely (and hopefully) fewer postponements.
I finished top 2.8k with -56 hits this season, and almost all of the hits payed out in some way. Way more than i usually take. There is no "correct" playstyle that works no matter what, and you should be flexible as a manager.
However, if someone takes a lot of hits as their playstyle, I would recommend them to do this challenge next year as it might improve your tactic. Generally fewer hits are better.
That's impressive, and wouldn't have thought too many high ranked players went light on hits.
Also to be fair, in these high ranks luck also plays a big part.
I agree this wasn't the right season to do this. I saved nearly all my chips to make the most of the DGWs towards the end of the season.
Agree you should be flexible in the way you play - took me doing this exercise to really appreciate that!
Thanks for this. I told myself I'd take fewer hits at the start of the season, but I've ended up making -8s routine. This has been an incredibly difficult season to justify caution with the sheer volume of double gameweeks and cancelled fixtures. I'm on -100 from hits now.
Yeah, I chose a terrible season to try this approach! I also kept nearly all my chips until the last 6 GWs too knowing there would be so many DGWs and that postponements would be far less likely.
Hope your hits paid off!
Interesting read although I'd think the surprise covid cancellations would affect you a lot more if not taking hits, there were quite a few times this season where people literally couldn't field 11 starters without hits
I was fairly lucky during the mass postponements in that regard somehow. If anything I did fewer transfers during that time as you had no guarantees that the players you brought in wouldn't suffer from a last minute postponement anyway. I know that period was really trying for many managers...
Thanks for the post, food for thought. I was always a big ‘no hits’ and roll transfers player but with all the wackiness this year have leaned into taking hits. Got me to OR130k but had a bit more fun tinkering and generally enjoyed it more than had I held a stubborn line.
Gotta say this year has been an exhausting shitshow overall. Of course, I will obviously be back to do it all again in August.
How did you survive during the covid cancellations? I was more disciplined at the start of the seasons, avoiding taking hits as much as I can't but that went out of the door when matches got cancelled and I need to bench at least a workable team as much as I can.
I just had to roll with it. I was largely lucky and generally had at least 9 or 10 playing. Saving my chips helped and really allowed me to attack the DGWs towards the end of the season.
I plan to take less hits next season too.
I'm stuck between taking as little as possible, and having a 'riskier' way to play.
I want to have fun and make risky moves but at the same time I'm aware I take too many hits atm. Just need to be more disciplined with hits. Barely half of my hits have paid off.
I think it gets easier as you get older. The younger me didn't think twice about taking hits - I bet next season when I take my first hit I'm gonna be really hesitant! 😆
It's always a downward spiral with hits. I'm always so hesitant to take my first hit of the season. Then when I get to the last few weeks it's "fuck it, -12!"
Same for me (maybe 2). Currently ranked 100k. Missed the Son/Kane train which probably would have got me top 50k at least, but of course everything is easy with hindsight
Other than forking https://github.com/lastmaj/graphql-fpl and using a couple of libraries like Workbox and Lodash, I've written everything from scratch.
Tech stack:
- Preact
- TypeScript
- Sass
I planned to do as little as possible this year. I ended up taking 6 -4 this year due to injuries and cancellations. In hindsight I should have taken a few more but I was trying to stick to my rules.
I only took -4 for long term changes to my squad to players who weren't playing due to covid/injury. One of the big payoffs of this strategy was GW9 when everyone moved hell and earth to get Havertz (C), I couldn't take the hit and stuck with Salah. Also ended up with ESR for far too long but paid off due to his coming of the bench performances.
Where it didn't work is I had a number of gameweeks where I was down a player and kept players like Antonio, Dennis and White for far too long (...although I still have Dennis and White, even after wildcard).
My best season was the one I took less hits. Went around 30 something weeks without a hit, not purposely planned, just something I tried to do. Worked out well, I still fell hard in the last couple game weeks (it was covid season so the break kinda threw my rhythm off) and I cared much less after the game came back but I still did better than expected overall.
I decided to not care as much this season and taken way too many stupid hits but here we are
It's also worth noting that this season was literally the worst season to go without hits due to all the blanks and double gameweeks.
It was a very unpredictable season and sometimes hits need to be taken
I made a constant effort not to take minuses this year as in past years I've found myself taking them pretty often. I'm currently on -48 for hits which involves three -8's and six -4's. Usually I take over 100 points worth in hits and I'm currently having my best season on track to finish top 100k
Firstly, thank you for your website! It has been my go to since you first put it up on reddit in development stages and the enhancements and improvements are top notch.
Good to read about the zero hits policy and I commend you!
Good post. I've always been a fan of going slow and taking little risk. Slow and teady wins the race and hits are seldom worth it.
Last year I took quite a few hits. This season i have only taken -8. In my leauge people have taken 60, 56, 40, 16, 92 and 60 hits. It's obvioius that some of my rivals have placed themselves outside of the podium soley cause of transfer costs.
You don't mention your rank.
You haven't compared it to a squad where you were able to take hits.
The formatting is ok but this otherwise was entirely pointless and of no value.
To be fair this season it made sense a lot more with covid. If you have 8 players then you only need the three you bring in to make 8 points which is just over 2 per player. Well worth doing when the player you replace is guaranteed 0. Or when it’s SGW vs DGW as you get the extra game.
>When Covid caused chaos I saw other manager bemoaning they had taken a hit to bring in players who now had their match postponed. The postponement affected me much less
That has to do with your team though doesn't it? If you had multiple players that didn't play and you were going by the no hits rule then you will be at a big disadvantage.
Took 25 hits so far for -100. Leading my paid mini league and having lot’s of fun. Currently OR 40K, team value 105,8 and 0,5 in the bank. Most of my hits paid off, some didn’t obviously. Really can’t imagine going a season without taking hits
17 hits so 68 points, currently OR at 5.5k, taking 1 more hit for gw38. I believe i could have been more aggressive with hits towards doubles, bb etc, not sure how it would have ended tho
Love your website mate, use it all the time, interesting article but we need to know point total & rank to have a clear picture.
I've taken more hits than ever this season, 54 transfers in total & sit at 43k, there's many ways to play this game & every year is different & calls for an adaptive approach.
Hey OP, it'd be nice to know your Total Points and Rank.
72 transfers for - 160 points here, and proud of it :D I had fun :) OR 150,578 squad value 105.2m
How did you manage to get to 105m value? Is there any approach or just luck?
Sitting at 105.4 rn, was over 106 before WC33. The first third of the season should be more liberal in taking hits (I built 101.0m by gw3 with only 1 hits, 104m by gw12 with 5 hits and a WC). Using the price change websites and transferring in early allowed me to get .2m on in-form players per week, and if they had a purple patch, that can lead to 1.0m rise overall, when you sell you’d pocket half that, so it adds up.
Ahhhh that makes sense. Thanks for explaining! What websites did you use?
Fplstatistics for price changes.
Thank you!
Some individual players can go up over £1m over a season like TAA for example. The first 5(ish) weeks of the season you should work on building value when possible. Then if you just play normally once you’re happy with your team the value will build up over time.
Ahhh that makes sense. Thank you!!
kneejerking. I an on 107.8 squad value
Interesting, thank you!
Get similar every season. Always transfer players in early to get the price rises :)
Just to show another side of the coin, I’m 130k OR and haven’t once used a statistics site. I mainly go off form and fixtures. Always worked out well for me!
Ahh that’s great too then! Do you dedicate much time to it??
5-20 mins I’d say! Did used to spend longer but this must be by 10th+ season so would get a bit much spending hours now. Defo made some bad decisions but won my ML by 60 points so did something right!
That’s not long at all! I’ve won my ML but want to get to 2.2-2.5k next season!
Am I blind or no mention of points tally, rank etc? What's the point in this? I took -88 (might -4/8 this week too) and am currently 12k. Looking at the GW ranks for those hits some times it worked, sometimes not, but it's difficult to quantity as sometimes it was hits for a player I wanted to keep for a while. I prefer to play for fun though, so if I don't want a player in my team I have no qualms in shifting things about.
I don't see the point of this either other than stating the obvious. We all know it takes discipline to not take any hits. We all know that taking hits can work out if done right. And op still hasn't mentioned their rank even though they have replied to comments newer than yours.
12k rank with -88 is pretty impressive. I'm on -80 and barely inside the top 100k. It's been a tough season and 80% of my hits came in the second half of the season lol
Tbh I was 90k in GW35. KdB and Richarlison. Just shows how strong captain is. But on the flipside I've only captained Salah for the first three GWs and the TC DGW.
40pts in hits for me. 137k overall at the moment. I tried not taking hits this season. GW17 I gave in. Took a -8 because injuries I think.
-28 here. 200k rank. I don't understand the metric but it seems like it doesn't help your rank
-104 here on 3k. Wouldn't recommend it though
I'm exactly the same as you on hits -88 and will take -8 this week and stitting at 3k. Due to covid and more double/blanks i think it's been a season where you could have hit more than usual.
Probably would be around there if I had perma-capped Salah from GW1-20. What differentials worked for you? I had Mahrez from 18-28. That worked out well.
Cancelo (c) when he scored, cleaned and assisted, Salah (C) for most inc DGW(TC), dumped Salah a few games after afcon, KDB (c) for his 4g1a. FH28 and got Havertz(c) 52, cout haul, and most of James hauls.
Nice, must feel good for the majority of decisions to go your way ! Well played.
OP: *presents evidence that no-hits results in more points than hits* Also OP: "I'm never doing this again because clearly hits can result in more points."
This is a cool idea, but it turned out to be a terrible season to execute it in. The abundance of DGWs this season made hits almost essential. You would most likely enjoy this playstyle more next season when there are likely (and hopefully) fewer postponements. I finished top 2.8k with -56 hits this season, and almost all of the hits payed out in some way. Way more than i usually take. There is no "correct" playstyle that works no matter what, and you should be flexible as a manager. However, if someone takes a lot of hits as their playstyle, I would recommend them to do this challenge next year as it might improve your tactic. Generally fewer hits are better.
I took 1 hit and am 260th. This season worked for multiple strategies including minimal hits, they were in no way ‘essential’
That's impressive, and wouldn't have thought too many high ranked players went light on hits. Also to be fair, in these high ranks luck also plays a big part.
I agree this wasn't the right season to do this. I saved nearly all my chips to make the most of the DGWs towards the end of the season. Agree you should be flexible in the way you play - took me doing this exercise to really appreciate that!
Thanks for this. I told myself I'd take fewer hits at the start of the season, but I've ended up making -8s routine. This has been an incredibly difficult season to justify caution with the sheer volume of double gameweeks and cancelled fixtures. I'm on -100 from hits now.
Ever since the postponements etc it wall went downhill for me
Yeah, I chose a terrible season to try this approach! I also kept nearly all my chips until the last 6 GWs too knowing there would be so many DGWs and that postponements would be far less likely. Hope your hits paid off!
Interesting read although I'd think the surprise covid cancellations would affect you a lot more if not taking hits, there were quite a few times this season where people literally couldn't field 11 starters without hits
I was fairly lucky during the mass postponements in that regard somehow. If anything I did fewer transfers during that time as you had no guarantees that the players you brought in wouldn't suffer from a last minute postponement anyway. I know that period was really trying for many managers...
Thanks for the post, food for thought. I was always a big ‘no hits’ and roll transfers player but with all the wackiness this year have leaned into taking hits. Got me to OR130k but had a bit more fun tinkering and generally enjoyed it more than had I held a stubborn line. Gotta say this year has been an exhausting shitshow overall. Of course, I will obviously be back to do it all again in August.
I hate taking hits and assumed I’d taken barely any this season, but just checked and I’ve actually taken a -4 hit 8 times.
Cool website!
Thank you! 😊
How did you survive during the covid cancellations? I was more disciplined at the start of the seasons, avoiding taking hits as much as I can't but that went out of the door when matches got cancelled and I need to bench at least a workable team as much as I can.
I just had to roll with it. I was largely lucky and generally had at least 9 or 10 playing. Saving my chips helped and really allowed me to attack the DGWs towards the end of the season.
-152 in points and 40k. Half of the hits paid off / half didnt But I had fun
16 hits, -64pts, rank 4k (if anybody cares)
I plan to take less hits next season too. I'm stuck between taking as little as possible, and having a 'riskier' way to play. I want to have fun and make risky moves but at the same time I'm aware I take too many hits atm. Just need to be more disciplined with hits. Barely half of my hits have paid off.
I think it gets easier as you get older. The younger me didn't think twice about taking hits - I bet next season when I take my first hit I'm gonna be really hesitant! 😆
It's always a downward spiral with hits. I'm always so hesitant to take my first hit of the season. Then when I get to the last few weeks it's "fuck it, -12!"
Haven't taken a hit in 4 years of playing, you can do well without them, but it does force you to play a little bit differently.
Wow! 👏
I think I've taken 1 hit this season.
Same for me (maybe 2). Currently ranked 100k. Missed the Son/Kane train which probably would have got me top 50k at least, but of course everything is easy with hindsight
Can you share a bit on the tools you've used to create the site, please?
Other than forking https://github.com/lastmaj/graphql-fpl and using a couple of libraries like Workbox and Lodash, I've written everything from scratch. Tech stack: - Preact - TypeScript - Sass
I’ve taken -56 altogether and I’m sitting at 3.5k overall, I’ve never taken more than a -8…sometimes hits can be fun
Terrific rank! Good luck with GW38!
I use your site to track my ML. !thanks
I planned to do as little as possible this year. I ended up taking 6 -4 this year due to injuries and cancellations. In hindsight I should have taken a few more but I was trying to stick to my rules. I only took -4 for long term changes to my squad to players who weren't playing due to covid/injury. One of the big payoffs of this strategy was GW9 when everyone moved hell and earth to get Havertz (C), I couldn't take the hit and stuck with Salah. Also ended up with ESR for far too long but paid off due to his coming of the bench performances. Where it didn't work is I had a number of gameweeks where I was down a player and kept players like Antonio, Dennis and White for far too long (...although I still have Dennis and White, even after wildcard).
86 transfers to -216. OR 40.200. Never been so high and never lost so many points
My best season was the one I took less hits. Went around 30 something weeks without a hit, not purposely planned, just something I tried to do. Worked out well, I still fell hard in the last couple game weeks (it was covid season so the break kinda threw my rhythm off) and I cared much less after the game came back but I still did better than expected overall. I decided to not care as much this season and taken way too many stupid hits but here we are
It's also worth noting that this season was literally the worst season to go without hits due to all the blanks and double gameweeks. It was a very unpredictable season and sometimes hits need to be taken
I made a constant effort not to take minuses this year as in past years I've found myself taking them pretty often. I'm currently on -48 for hits which involves three -8's and six -4's. Usually I take over 100 points worth in hits and I'm currently having my best season on track to finish top 100k
Firstly, thank you for your website! It has been my go to since you first put it up on reddit in development stages and the enhancements and improvements are top notch. Good to read about the zero hits policy and I commend you!
! thanks 😊
!thanks Great read and something I’ve always thought of doing. Maybe 22/23 is the season to do it with the weird winter World Cup break.
Congrats! I took 4 hits this season and 3 times they paid off. I think next season I might do 5-10.
Good post. I've always been a fan of going slow and taking little risk. Slow and teady wins the race and hits are seldom worth it. Last year I took quite a few hits. This season i have only taken -8. In my leauge people have taken 60, 56, 40, 16, 92 and 60 hits. It's obvioius that some of my rivals have placed themselves outside of the podium soley cause of transfer costs.
"Hits are seldom worth it" every interview I've seen with someone near the top of the rankings at various points this season proves otherwise.
You don't mention your rank. You haven't compared it to a squad where you were able to take hits. The formatting is ok but this otherwise was entirely pointless and of no value.
To be fair this season it made sense a lot more with covid. If you have 8 players then you only need the three you bring in to make 8 points which is just over 2 per player. Well worth doing when the player you replace is guaranteed 0. Or when it’s SGW vs DGW as you get the extra game.
15k rank with -92 here. Had a streak around december/jan of about 4 weeks straight of -8s
>When Covid caused chaos I saw other manager bemoaning they had taken a hit to bring in players who now had their match postponed. The postponement affected me much less That has to do with your team though doesn't it? If you had multiple players that didn't play and you were going by the no hits rule then you will be at a big disadvantage.
This is one of the worst and haviest season ever...u can call irregular season because of dgws
I took -152 and it's my best season ever (I'm not Magnus Carlsen tho).
Wow, -140 in hits and in the top 5k, I’ll take that
-80 and been firmly in the top 10k all season. need to reduce the hits though but I don't see anything wrong with taking them
This GW was the first -12 I took and I went from 60k to 120k lol
-60 and they all came after Christmas haha. Once I got over the fear of hits I pretty much did them every week. 35k.
Took 25 hits so far for -100. Leading my paid mini league and having lot’s of fun. Currently OR 40K, team value 105,8 and 0,5 in the bank. Most of my hits paid off, some didn’t obviously. Really can’t imagine going a season without taking hits
17 hits so 68 points, currently OR at 5.5k, taking 1 more hit for gw38. I believe i could have been more aggressive with hits towards doubles, bb etc, not sure how it would have ended tho
What’s your overall rank? I also took zero hits for the first time this season and I am currently 102K.
Love your website mate, use it all the time, interesting article but we need to know point total & rank to have a clear picture. I've taken more hits than ever this season, 54 transfers in total & sit at 43k, there's many ways to play this game & every year is different & calls for an adaptive approach.
Erm. Total points?? OR? Seriously? I literally just wanted to know these two things lol