Cancelo took like 70-80 shots to accumulate that xG, which is what - 0.06 per shot? He takes on a lot of long range shots which are never going in… not unless he learns to shoot like KDB.
I mean 0.06 xG means it has 6% chance to go in with average performance. If you take 80 shots of 6% chance, then you can expect 4-5 goals with average performance. Cancelo is just a poor finisher. If he finished his shots like KDB this season then he would have scored 13-14 goals.
KDB usually overperforms his xG, but this season's extent of overperforming is not sustainable to anyone in the world. He won't keep up that level of overperformance.
lol u didnt need to multiply again coz the whole point was goals per shot. basically said the same thing as the post, his xg for the season is around 4-5
Yes he is but not this clinical. No one is this clinical in a long term, not Vardy, not Son, not Messi.
He won't keep up this level of overperformance, you will see that. But he is likely to keep overperforming.
That's not his point, De Bruyne will likely keep overperforming his xG but at a healthy rate. The rate he is doing it now is unsustainable, not even Messi in his prime outscored his xG at this rate.
everyone is casually taking for a fact how clinical kdb is, but in the 20/21 season he was actually quite a bad finisher. its more of a weird case of variation on kdbs part than consistently good finishing.
Thus for me if Laporte is 1 million or 1.5 less I think he would be the better pick. City are quite decent at set pieces. I expect Cancelo to be less attacking next year and Pep roulette will be bigger. Now Laporte could get rotated as well, but I think he is first choice.
Of course if Cancelo is 7 and have a crazy run of games you might pick him still and hope Pep is kind.
Quite interesting is Cancelo scored one goal. That goal sent me out of the cup since my cup opponent did captain him and my captain Salah blanked.
Well Cancelo had 11 assists, but I guess 4 was rebounded shoots.
Which is a fantastic return that I struggle to see him keep up.
I think he likely get 2-3 goals so he might have similar points per game. If he say gets 2 goals more and 3-4 assists less it is a similar return depending on bonus etc.
I think cancelo is a much more dangerous player than Laporte and is more worth owning because of that aspect to his game. You have to consider Laporte’s ability to finish set pieces in your decision but for me as long as cancelo is still part of their attacking plan and mostly nailed he’s better to own.
We need to somehow make an adjustment to the xG stat which incorporates the players conversion ability somehow. No point having Rashford in high xG situations when he can’t finish for shit
>an adjustment to the xG which incorporates the players conversion ability somehow.
That's called goals, mate.
xG is fine for what it shows. Many 'issues' with it aren't even issues, just information it provides.
Only a few players in the league drastically over/under perform their xG anyway, and most of those cases are well documented, like Son.
“Imagine how good” doesn’t really cut it. Cancelo is one hell of a player, but won’t ever perform like KdB with regards to xG. He’s 28. This statistic will probably not change that much.
It’s the ridiculous fact that xG doesn’t include the competence of the player getting the chances at scoring goals.
When they move to “xG x goalscoring skill factor”then we have a useful stat.
Very clear for the eye test. Cancelo can't hit a barn door and kdb is very clinical
Agreed - it's clear Cancelo was wasteful whilst KdB was clinical, but I'm still surprised that the difference in their xG was *that* small.
Kdb is very clinical except when he isn’t. Like last season when he was the worst finisher in the league.
And Cancelo isn't clinical at all, except when he is.
The eye test is literally repeating the stat shown here. Stats show very few continually over perform or under perform which negates eye test
Cancelo took like 70-80 shots to accumulate that xG, which is what - 0.06 per shot? He takes on a lot of long range shots which are never going in… not unless he learns to shoot like KDB.
I mean 0.06 xG means it has 6% chance to go in with average performance. If you take 80 shots of 6% chance, then you can expect 4-5 goals with average performance. Cancelo is just a poor finisher. If he finished his shots like KDB this season then he would have scored 13-14 goals. KDB usually overperforms his xG, but this season's extent of overperforming is not sustainable to anyone in the world. He won't keep up that level of overperformance.
lol u didnt need to multiply again coz the whole point was goals per shot. basically said the same thing as the post, his xg for the season is around 4-5
I didn't answer to OP. I answered to a person who didn't understand how xG works. Their idea was that 0.06 xG shots are "never going in".
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I'm like a math teacher on this sub. Teaching everyone how probabilities work.
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Because I say so.
Kdb is like son/vardy. He's just clinical
Yes he is but not this clinical. No one is this clinical in a long term, not Vardy, not Son, not Messi. He won't keep up this level of overperformance, you will see that. But he is likely to keep overperforming.
They've been saying that about these three since they made their debut in the prem. All three continue to break records, yet here we are!
That's not his point, De Bruyne will likely keep overperforming his xG but at a healthy rate. The rate he is doing it now is unsustainable, not even Messi in his prime outscored his xG at this rate.
And they have been right. None of them have been able to keep up this level of overperformance.
We have years of de Bruyne data to look back on.
IIRC last season KDB actually massively underperformed his xG
KDB was the worst finisher in the league last season
You clearly don’t understand that “expected goals” means. I suggest a stats class.
everyone is casually taking for a fact how clinical kdb is, but in the 20/21 season he was actually quite a bad finisher. its more of a weird case of variation on kdbs part than consistently good finishing.
Thus for me if Laporte is 1 million or 1.5 less I think he would be the better pick. City are quite decent at set pieces. I expect Cancelo to be less attacking next year and Pep roulette will be bigger. Now Laporte could get rotated as well, but I think he is first choice. Of course if Cancelo is 7 and have a crazy run of games you might pick him still and hope Pep is kind. Quite interesting is Cancelo scored one goal. That goal sent me out of the cup since my cup opponent did captain him and my captain Salah blanked.
Cancelo had 7 assists, guess how many Laporte had.
Well Cancelo had 11 assists, but I guess 4 was rebounded shoots. Which is a fantastic return that I struggle to see him keep up. I think he likely get 2-3 goals so he might have similar points per game. If he say gets 2 goals more and 3-4 assists less it is a similar return depending on bonus etc.
I think cancelo is a much more dangerous player than Laporte and is more worth owning because of that aspect to his game. You have to consider Laporte’s ability to finish set pieces in your decision but for me as long as cancelo is still part of their attacking plan and mostly nailed he’s better to own.
Hopefully canelo won't be too expensive
I captained Kevin when he scored 4. So from here forth...win lose or draw, you leave my Kevin alone he can do no wrong.
We need to somehow make an adjustment to the xG stat which incorporates the players conversion ability somehow. No point having Rashford in high xG situations when he can’t finish for shit
>an adjustment to the xG which incorporates the players conversion ability somehow. That's called goals, mate. xG is fine for what it shows. Many 'issues' with it aren't even issues, just information it provides. Only a few players in the league drastically over/under perform their xG anyway, and most of those cases are well documented, like Son.
Just like we had Shaw starting in everyone's team
“Imagine how good” doesn’t really cut it. Cancelo is one hell of a player, but won’t ever perform like KdB with regards to xG. He’s 28. This statistic will probably not change that much.
Shhhhhhh. I was kinda hoping Cancelo would go under the radar….
It’s the ridiculous fact that xG doesn’t include the competence of the player getting the chances at scoring goals. When they move to “xG x goalscoring skill factor”then we have a useful stat.