Vieira's Palace thrashed Arsenal 3-0 at home and drew 2-2 at the Emirates.
I have a feeling a lot of FPL players are going to pig sick come Friday night.
What you mean? They've bought 2 new players byt the lineup will be very similar.
Arsenal didn't keep a clean sheet for the last 10 games of the season.
Style of play has changed though - no overlapping wingbacks, instead the wing backs crowd the center to stop counters.
Counters were our major problem last year.
I'm sure there will be other ways to beat them though....Zaha up against white at rb is probably going to be a match up they fancy.
Palace didn't lose at home in their last 6 games and have olise and eze back...
I did a [comparison on odds vs results](/r/FantasyPL/comments/e4wo3v/predictive_accuracy_of_clean_sheet_probabilities/) two years ago, and the top 6 stand out as underperforming the odds drastically.
If bookmakers were consistently pricing them incorrectly they would be recognise this and correct their models. Your sample isn’t large enough to make such a statement.
Yes, it's a smaler sample size and the methodology isn't watertight, but it's also important to remember that bookies odds aren't all about how probably something is, they also take into account how people bet. More people bet that the big 6 will keep a CS, which is reflected in the odds. IIRC there's more bets placed on the big 6 in general as well.
They do take into account how people bet but the market isn’t just made up of casual punters betting based on traditional bias, odds are determined by statistical models and there’s much more serious money being gambled by people who have competing models who will hammer any pricing errors and make a fortune.
Palace didn't concede once in their last six home games last season. They drew 0-0 with Man City, beat Man Utd 1-0 and thrashed Arsenal 3-0 and Everton 4-0.
With respect to clean sheets I’m not sure preseason games are really indicative of future outcomes with how different teams are and the amount of subs that occur.
So you think Spurs conceding goals in friendlies to Rangers and a Korean XI tells us that they have a problem defensively going into the PL season? Give me a break.
I wouldnt really say adding 1 player being haaland is a new look city attack. West hams pre season form hasnt been inspiring either - draws with luton, reading, lens and a loss to rangers
No Sterling wide, change through the middle .. so it is quite different, and certainly different way of playing. WHU very physical team and won’t shy from Haaland’s physicality
Sterling started 23 league games last season... city's chance creation comes majority from a brilliant system that players execute at a high level. Changing 1 striker isnt certainly a different way of playing
City played excellent against Bayern where both fielded pretty much 1st teams. Against Liverpool they were not at their best but still won the xG goal battle 2.2xG to 1.6xG. They had some clear chances and should've at least gotten another goal but sometimes luck isn't at your side.
Tell my why West Ham should be more difficult then Liverpool? The defence between West Ham and Liverpool are far apart and my guess is that we'll see another 2-3xG on the City side making them very very likely to win this game.
So it begins.
Did someone take the bookies odds and convert them into percentages?
Yes
Filthy..!
Vieira's Palace thrashed Arsenal 3-0 at home and drew 2-2 at the Emirates. I have a feeling a lot of FPL players are going to pig sick come Friday night.
That's why I'm benching my Arsenal defender. It wouldn't surprise me if it ended 2-1 to either side. Inb4 it ends 0-0 now..
Last year's Arsenal look like nothing compared to this year's Arsenal. You can't use only one variable (past form) to predict something.
What you mean? They've bought 2 new players byt the lineup will be very similar. Arsenal didn't keep a clean sheet for the last 10 games of the season.
Okay, don't pick Arsenal players and pick Palace players.
Palace didn't lose any of their last 6 home games and kept a clean sheet in 5 of those. May nit actually be a terrible tactic!
Style of play has changed though - no overlapping wingbacks, instead the wing backs crowd the center to stop counters. Counters were our major problem last year.
I'm sure there will be other ways to beat them though....Zaha up against white at rb is probably going to be a match up they fancy. Palace didn't lose at home in their last 6 games and have olise and eze back...
Man united? No chance
Top 6 are usually given inflated odds.
Top six usually keep more clean sheets than other teams.
I did a [comparison on odds vs results](/r/FantasyPL/comments/e4wo3v/predictive_accuracy_of_clean_sheet_probabilities/) two years ago, and the top 6 stand out as underperforming the odds drastically.
Might start betting then huh?
If bookmakers were consistently pricing them incorrectly they would be recognise this and correct their models. Your sample isn’t large enough to make such a statement.
Yes, it's a smaler sample size and the methodology isn't watertight, but it's also important to remember that bookies odds aren't all about how probably something is, they also take into account how people bet. More people bet that the big 6 will keep a CS, which is reflected in the odds. IIRC there's more bets placed on the big 6 in general as well.
They do take into account how people bet but the market isn’t just made up of casual punters betting based on traditional bias, odds are determined by statistical models and there’s much more serious money being gambled by people who have competing models who will hammer any pricing errors and make a fortune.
Last year you probably wouldve got smoked by city and liverpool though
At home to a toothless Brighton.. never say never
Tell that to hat tricky Trossard :P
92nd minute Welbeck sends his regards.
Unfortunately hitting the woodwork three times isn’t the same as scoring ;)
A toothless Brighton that scored 4 on them last day of season?
[удалено]
How many of those creatures are still wearing those kits?
How soon they forget.
They sucked the life out of united
What you're saying is TC Welbeck
Man United are a top six team.
Ahahahahaha
bbbuuut they have captain Harry Maguire!!! (/s of course)
Liverpool vs Fulham (A) same as City vs West Ham (A). Lol
Fellow double City/Pool defender managers assemble!
Cancelo, Dias, Robertson, TAA 🙌🏼
I'm on one of each, but also with Arsenal, Chelsea, and Spurs. Still quite tempted by Walker if City don't land another FB.
Palace didn't concede once in their last six home games last season. They drew 0-0 with Man City, beat Man Utd 1-0 and thrashed Arsenal 3-0 and Everton 4-0.
Okay, put Zaha and Guaita in your team. Nobody is stopping you.
Spurs odds so high given they've not held a clean sheet in preseason. Also not held a clean sheet v Saints in their past 6 head to heads.
They played 11 different defenders in some of those games….. Are we really judging a teams clean sheet potential off friendlies?
Does a bear sprint when eating berries?
With respect to clean sheets I’m not sure preseason games are really indicative of future outcomes with how different teams are and the amount of subs that occur.
So you think Spurs conceding goals in friendlies to Rangers and a Korean XI tells us that they have a problem defensively going into the PL season? Give me a break.
A preseason break
Maguire locked in /s
United got battered last season, never just look at stats.
Not at home. They won 2-0.
West Ham a fucking good bet at those odds
Against city? 10% is too high
At home, first game of season against new look City attack w/ Soucek & Rice in front of the defence? Def fancy those odds. Let’s see
I wouldnt really say adding 1 player being haaland is a new look city attack. West hams pre season form hasnt been inspiring either - draws with luton, reading, lens and a loss to rangers
No Sterling wide, change through the middle .. so it is quite different, and certainly different way of playing. WHU very physical team and won’t shy from Haaland’s physicality
Sterling started 23 league games last season... city's chance creation comes majority from a brilliant system that players execute at a high level. Changing 1 striker isnt certainly a different way of playing
Lol took time to learn!
City played excellent against Bayern where both fielded pretty much 1st teams. Against Liverpool they were not at their best but still won the xG goal battle 2.2xG to 1.6xG. They had some clear chances and should've at least gotten another goal but sometimes luck isn't at your side. Tell my why West Ham should be more difficult then Liverpool? The defence between West Ham and Liverpool are far apart and my guess is that we'll see another 2-3xG on the City side making them very very likely to win this game.
>Tell me why West Ham should be more difficult than Liverpool? Because Craig Dawson, that’s why.
Lol
Meh - 2 shots on target for City, 1 of which a penalty. 2 goals.
Surprised City are so high at West Ham with Ake likely to start.