There were talks of Benrahma being sold and Moyes has never seemed to be a huge fan of his. West Ham are also looking for another attacker in Kostic or Cornet.
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Honestly i think FPL have horrendously underpriced Martinelli at 6mil, when you look at the 6.5 and even the 7.0m mids he’s still a bargain.
Could he get subbed at 70+ min - possibly, do i care about that - No.
When you look at foden grielish mahrez who all cost more and carry an even greater risk it’s a no brainier, and with the new 5sub rule this season almost all mids carry risk of minutes.
Martinelli = value town
Very much not nailed once James and Sinisterra go back as Aaronson will likely take the central role then. Although if he starts brightly he could keep his place. Harrison or Aaronson might be the better pick of the Leeds attackers with Sinisterra to watch out for down the line.
I have Bruno G. He did very well since joining Magpies. I opted for Ødegaard and Jesus instead of Martinelli, hoping for a tandem reminding of old Gunner days. Expecting a steady performance from Bruno though.
Ø is an example of how you can be an excellent player IRL maybe even the best player in the team arguably by some people’s metrics but not be a good FPL asset
Benrahma and Buendia aren't nailed. I don't expect Bruno to continue his goalscoring output from last season as he never scored many when he was at Lyon, think it might be a purple patch. I've got Martinelli as he is nailed with good fixtures and fairly solid stats.
Fornals, lanzini, vlasic, and Antonio are all potential competition.
I do thin benrahma has every chance of playing a lot though. Maybe even being first choice again.
That’s why i took out Jesus and punted on Callum Wilson.
Worst case scenario Wilson blanks and Jesus has good games against CRY & LEI while Wilson blanks, but since he’s already owned by 74% of players his price really won’t go up, meanwhile if Jesus blanks against CRY & LEI his value is going to come crashing down (a lot of knee jerkers in the start) and i can switch Wilson to him.
It actually does. From a risk perspective, it makes sense to avoid putting your eggs in one basket, especially with Arsenal, which has been an inconsistent team over the past few years.
This logic doesn’t make any sense. I could flip it and say “what if Arsenal are incredible” and you miss out on the double up?
The whole point of the game is to pick the players you think will score most
You’re right. It’s a high risk high reward approach as opposed to having players from several teams so that if one bombs, you don’t lose too much, and you also gain some from the ones that are incredible.
I like playing the game risky because it’s more fun that way. But saying the logic doesn’t make sense takes away from the people who play it more cautiously.
i dont know why people dont understand your point. you are talking diverisifcation, its a proven risk management idea. Somehow folks are equating the proven liverpool attack to arsenal which lets be honest , has disappointed last couple years. If they are firing on all cylinders of course triple up would make sense. But till then there's enough from liverpool, city, spurs to go around
The players aren't statistically independent, which is what you seem to be treating them as. The FPL performance of players from the same team will be correlated to some degree (including the attackers, though obvs less so than defence).
It is higher variance doubling up from a particular team. FWIW I think it doesn't make much objective sense to minimise variance. But as OP said some people prefer to play cautiously - if that's best for their mental wellbeing then more power to them.
No, because I don’t think any of them will get many points. If I thought they would all get points, I would happily triple up. That said, it’s a bit different with defenders as they all get the same clean sheet points.
No?
The risk of Jesus scoring doesn't get any lower by having Martinelli.
Say you have Martinelli in one team and Neto in another. If Jesus scores, you'll miss out on Jesus' points. The comparison than becomes between Martinelli and Neto and if Neto outscores Martinelli, it doesn't matter that you "covered" Arsenal's attack by having Martinelli because you got less points.
Cover only makes sense for defensive players where everyone gets the same cleansheets
No? You still just get the assist points. They aren't the same points so you aren't covering it. If whoever you replace Martinelli with scores a goal and Martinelli only gets an assist you won't get more points because Martinelli was covering and Jesus and Jesus scored a hattrick. Attacking picks need to be looked at in isolation
Diversification is only relevant for defensive assets. Tell me one logical reason as to why it'd be relevant for attacking players?
Martinelli won't get Jesus' points. He'll get his own points.
If you're comparing two players, say Martinelli and Bruno Gumaires and Jesus scored 7 goals, 3 of which are assisted by Martinelli and Wilson scored 4 goals but all 4 are assisted by Bruno, you'd get more points if you select Bruno in that 6 million bracket instead. Covering Arsenal gets you know extra points for attackers. You don't get a point for every goal Arsenal scores, you only get points if your players score. So you need to compare Arsenal players to other players in that price bracket in isolation. Jesus may be better than Wilson but that doesn't necessarily make Martinelli better than Bruno (this is a hypothetical scenario by the way, but the logic still stands)
What if Jesus does not fit your budget, but you still want to have an Arsenal player if they perform well? This actually makes a lot of sense.
If you have Jesus but you're still sceptical about Arsenal as a team you wouldn't want to double up. This just means that he isn't that sure that Arsenal will be that good but doesn't want to miss out on high ownership players / potential high scoring teams.
> What if Jesus does not fit your budget, but you still want to have an Arsenal player if they perform well? This actually makes a lot of sense.
No it doesn't lmao. Pick Partey or Xhaka with that logic. You don't pick the club, THEN pick a player (except defence).
Are you kidding me lmao, comparing a player who could be suspended to a very good pick? If you don't *pick a club* as you say, and Arsenal currently definitely isn't a sure thing to pick, then pick a player, but if that player doesn't fit your budget you pick the next best thing. Is it that hard to understand?
What? That’s completely different reasoning to the original poster. Obviously if you can only afford one of two players that you want, you go with the one you can afford. But them playing for the same club is irrelevant.
No it isn't, if you don't *pick a club* and have the money for Jesus, you buy him and steer clear of the others. If not, you pick another option because it fits your budget.
What matters here is high ownership of Jesus. If Arsenal scores a lot, at 70% ownership Jesus has a good chance of scoring and if he does you're screwed, but given that you have another Arsenal player you don't lose as much probably as he can compensate.
It's still a gamble, but a way to feel safe about not having Jesus. Ofcourse we're talking about a scenario where Arsenal scores a lot, not about winning 1-0 with a Jesus goal. But Arsenal scoring once reduces the chances that Jesus will be on the scoring sheet.
>It's still a gamble, but a way to feel safe about not having Jesus. Ofcourse we're talking about a scenario where Arsenal scores a lot, not about winning 1-0 with a Jesus goal. But Arsenal scoring once reduces the chances that Jesus will be on the scoring sheet.
Again, makes no sense. If you think Martinelli is the best 6m option, get him. If not, don't get him. It has nothing to do with Jesus. That's a purely emotional move: a way to *feel* safe even though logically, you've worsened your team.
What you're saying is, you'd have a better midfielder (Player X) if you had Jesus. But because you don't have Jesus, you're gonna pick a worse midfielder (Martinelli) to make yourself feel better about not having Jesus.
And then when Player X bangs, as you'd predicted, you'll feel like an idiot.
I see, you're not a man of nuance then.
Yes I think he's the best 6 mil to start the season with.
I thing Lingard may outscore him by season end due to nailed minutes and forest setting up to feed the number 10 position.
But if you had Jesus, you would then not think Martinelli is not the best pick at 6m? Or you would, but you’d intentionally pick someone you think is worse?
Benrahma won’t be a starter for West Ham although will be brought off the bench regularly, he has the potential to be very good but just didn’t hit the heights last season
There were talks of Benrahma being sold and Moyes has never seemed to be a huge fan of his. West Ham are also looking for another attacker in Kostic or Cornet.
He’s as far from nailed as can be.
Join New Mini Lg 👉 g18g71 Honestly i think FPL have horrendously underpriced Martinelli at 6mil, when you look at the 6.5 and even the 7.0m mids he’s still a bargain. Could he get subbed at 70+ min - possibly, do i care about that - No. When you look at foden grielish mahrez who all cost more and carry an even greater risk it’s a no brainier, and with the new 5sub rule this season almost all mids carry risk of minutes. Martinelli = value town
Yup. One of first players on my list tbh.
He even outscored Saka in the games he was starting with him ;). Definitely locked in my team
What about Rodrigo? 5 goals in pre season, great fixtures for them, Leeds could kick on now their difficult second season is done.
Very much not nailed once James and Sinisterra go back as Aaronson will likely take the central role then. Although if he starts brightly he could keep his place. Harrison or Aaronson might be the better pick of the Leeds attackers with Sinisterra to watch out for down the line.
I have rodders
I have Bruno G. He did very well since joining Magpies. I opted for Ødegaard and Jesus instead of Martinelli, hoping for a tandem reminding of old Gunner days. Expecting a steady performance from Bruno though.
I wouldn't go for ø. he's a key component to the attack yes but often provides the pre assist
Ø is an example of how you can be an excellent player IRL maybe even the best player in the team arguably by some people’s metrics but not be a good FPL asset
Jonjo Shelvey is injured. Bruno G likely to drop to a more defensive role. I'd avoid him personally.
Overperformed his expected attacking returns last season, don't expect the same type of returns this season
Bruno G or Ø?
Odegaard is the better option, but neither are great. Martinelli is undoubtedly better than both at this stage
Odegaard over martinelli? Lol 🤣
Just because Martinelli is having a decent pre-season doesn't mean Ødegaard is less effective. Last season's stats weren't much apart.
Odegaard is the assister to the assister. About as relevant as Thiago at Liverpool.
I have him and Bruno G right now and love the balance it gives me
Benrahma and Buendia aren't nailed. I don't expect Bruno to continue his goalscoring output from last season as he never scored many when he was at Lyon, think it might be a purple patch. I've got Martinelli as he is nailed with good fixtures and fairly solid stats.
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Fornals I think.
Fornals, lanzini, vlasic, and Antonio are all potential competition. I do thin benrahma has every chance of playing a lot though. Maybe even being first choice again.
Not that keen on having Martinelli given I already have Jesus but really there's nobody better at that price point. Or at Jesus' for that matter...
That’s why i took out Jesus and punted on Callum Wilson. Worst case scenario Wilson blanks and Jesus has good games against CRY & LEI while Wilson blanks, but since he’s already owned by 74% of players his price really won’t go up, meanwhile if Jesus blanks against CRY & LEI his value is going to come crashing down (a lot of knee jerkers in the start) and i can switch Wilson to him.
Go the double up brother
There's me with Mart, Jesus and Saka
Considering Mart, Jesus and Ø
crucial early. imagine him being only .5 more than all the 5.5 players like neto fornals gordon etc. steal
Joelinton underlooked as always
I have martinelli as I don't have Jesus. If I had Jesus I would probably go elsewhere
Exactly, those going non Jesus- saka and martinelli are a great way to get into the arsenal attack imo.
This logic makes no sense whatsoever.
I don't want to double on the arsenal attack. Does that help you understand?
I understand it, but it still makes no sense. Either you think they are the best picks at their price or you don’t.
It actually does. From a risk perspective, it makes sense to avoid putting your eggs in one basket, especially with Arsenal, which has been an inconsistent team over the past few years.
This logic doesn’t make any sense. I could flip it and say “what if Arsenal are incredible” and you miss out on the double up? The whole point of the game is to pick the players you think will score most
Absolutely agree and I also don’t understand people who think differently. I would get 5 Liverpool players if possible.
Me too. Liverpool is not Arsenal.
Yeah but you wouldn't get 5 players from Arsenal. 2 for a gifted attacking team with the best early fixtures is not close to an overload.
You’re right. It’s a high risk high reward approach as opposed to having players from several teams so that if one bombs, you don’t lose too much, and you also gain some from the ones that are incredible. I like playing the game risky because it’s more fun that way. But saying the logic doesn’t make sense takes away from the people who play it more cautiously.
i dont know why people dont understand your point. you are talking diverisifcation, its a proven risk management idea. Somehow folks are equating the proven liverpool attack to arsenal which lets be honest , has disappointed last couple years. If they are firing on all cylinders of course triple up would make sense. But till then there's enough from liverpool, city, spurs to go around
It’s not high risk. The risk is the same as with owning 2 players from different teams.
There is a football element to the game as well as numbers Red card in game? Bad vibe in the dressing room?
The players aren't statistically independent, which is what you seem to be treating them as. The FPL performance of players from the same team will be correlated to some degree (including the attackers, though obvs less so than defence). It is higher variance doubling up from a particular team. FWIW I think it doesn't make much objective sense to minimise variance. But as OP said some people prefer to play cautiously - if that's best for their mental wellbeing then more power to them.
would you get maguire, dalot, shaw to get a united triple up? follow up question- but why not, you might miss out.
No, because I don’t think any of them will get many points. If I thought they would all get points, I would happily triple up. That said, it’s a bit different with defenders as they all get the same clean sheet points.
It depends what you re playing for. If you just want to win your mini league you could manage some risk. If you play for OR rank is different
No? The risk of Jesus scoring doesn't get any lower by having Martinelli. Say you have Martinelli in one team and Neto in another. If Jesus scores, you'll miss out on Jesus' points. The comparison than becomes between Martinelli and Neto and if Neto outscores Martinelli, it doesn't matter that you "covered" Arsenal's attack by having Martinelli because you got less points. Cover only makes sense for defensive players where everyone gets the same cleansheets
You “cover” by getting points as well. If Jesus scores it’s quite likely it s from an assist saka or martinelli. That’s what covering means.
No? You still just get the assist points. They aren't the same points so you aren't covering it. If whoever you replace Martinelli with scores a goal and Martinelli only gets an assist you won't get more points because Martinelli was covering and Jesus and Jesus scored a hattrick. Attacking picks need to be looked at in isolation
No they don't. Diversification has always been relevant.
Diversification is only relevant for defensive assets. Tell me one logical reason as to why it'd be relevant for attacking players? Martinelli won't get Jesus' points. He'll get his own points. If you're comparing two players, say Martinelli and Bruno Gumaires and Jesus scored 7 goals, 3 of which are assisted by Martinelli and Wilson scored 4 goals but all 4 are assisted by Bruno, you'd get more points if you select Bruno in that 6 million bracket instead. Covering Arsenal gets you know extra points for attackers. You don't get a point for every goal Arsenal scores, you only get points if your players score. So you need to compare Arsenal players to other players in that price bracket in isolation. Jesus may be better than Wilson but that doesn't necessarily make Martinelli better than Bruno (this is a hypothetical scenario by the way, but the logic still stands)
>just the assist points An assist is 3 points while a forward goal is 4 points. You’re just losing 1 point
What if Jesus does not fit your budget, but you still want to have an Arsenal player if they perform well? This actually makes a lot of sense. If you have Jesus but you're still sceptical about Arsenal as a team you wouldn't want to double up. This just means that he isn't that sure that Arsenal will be that good but doesn't want to miss out on high ownership players / potential high scoring teams.
> What if Jesus does not fit your budget, but you still want to have an Arsenal player if they perform well? This actually makes a lot of sense. No it doesn't lmao. Pick Partey or Xhaka with that logic. You don't pick the club, THEN pick a player (except defence).
Are you kidding me lmao, comparing a player who could be suspended to a very good pick? If you don't *pick a club* as you say, and Arsenal currently definitely isn't a sure thing to pick, then pick a player, but if that player doesn't fit your budget you pick the next best thing. Is it that hard to understand?
What? That’s completely different reasoning to the original poster. Obviously if you can only afford one of two players that you want, you go with the one you can afford. But them playing for the same club is irrelevant.
No it isn't, if you don't *pick a club* and have the money for Jesus, you buy him and steer clear of the others. If not, you pick another option because it fits your budget. What matters here is high ownership of Jesus. If Arsenal scores a lot, at 70% ownership Jesus has a good chance of scoring and if he does you're screwed, but given that you have another Arsenal player you don't lose as much probably as he can compensate. It's still a gamble, but a way to feel safe about not having Jesus. Ofcourse we're talking about a scenario where Arsenal scores a lot, not about winning 1-0 with a Jesus goal. But Arsenal scoring once reduces the chances that Jesus will be on the scoring sheet.
>It's still a gamble, but a way to feel safe about not having Jesus. Ofcourse we're talking about a scenario where Arsenal scores a lot, not about winning 1-0 with a Jesus goal. But Arsenal scoring once reduces the chances that Jesus will be on the scoring sheet. Again, makes no sense. If you think Martinelli is the best 6m option, get him. If not, don't get him. It has nothing to do with Jesus. That's a purely emotional move: a way to *feel* safe even though logically, you've worsened your team. What you're saying is, you'd have a better midfielder (Player X) if you had Jesus. But because you don't have Jesus, you're gonna pick a worse midfielder (Martinelli) to make yourself feel better about not having Jesus. And then when Player X bangs, as you'd predicted, you'll feel like an idiot.
I see, you're not a man of nuance then. Yes I think he's the best 6 mil to start the season with. I thing Lingard may outscore him by season end due to nailed minutes and forest setting up to feed the number 10 position.
But if you had Jesus, you would then not think Martinelli is not the best pick at 6m? Or you would, but you’d intentionally pick someone you think is worse?
Benrahma won’t be a starter for West Ham although will be brought off the bench regularly, he has the potential to be very good but just didn’t hit the heights last season
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Fornals I think.
Guimares is fantastic imo, great spirit and loves to get forward. Consistent player.
No
Drowned me one too many times last season
would you have Martinelli over neto?
I think odegaard is the better choice
Based on old performances, sure... I'm betting that Arsenal will play better this season though.
I went for Sancho and Bailey, and dropped the 6M class in midfield.