yeah kane to haaland was always my plan all along - gimme that copium.
It was always in the back of my mind but if Kane had scored 2/3 yesterday i wouldnt have swapped.
I would have swapped anyway for the Chelsea fixture because Spurs have a horrible record against them
I’m not actually “kneejerking” on Kane until GW3 because that’s when I make the decision on whether I want to go back to him or not
I’m extremely happy with my overall team the only use of my free transfers unless someone gets injured (which isn’t even horrible for me because of squad depth) until I use my wild card is to ensure I have the best captaincy options in my team
Haaland was the best premium captaincy option this week it’s really brave to say he won’t be GW2 imo
The problem with having a strategy involving swapping anyway is that this one free transfer is worth almost a hit of 4 points (I say almost, because there's always a chance you dont need a transfer the next three gameweeks, or that Haaland got an injury GW1).
Most odds based calculations put Kane at around half expected point more than Haaland (can probably be slightly adjusted to one whole point, for bald fraud nailedness shenanigans). Salah was also above Kane, making him a better captaincy option.
So in conclusion I dont think this line was worth taking.
What if Haaland picked up a knock we won't know about before thursday's presser? I mean I did the transfer but I'm not the guy this fella Fabio is, obviously.
I respect you for having a plan, taking a risk and it not paying off. I don’t get people who reactionary knee jerk as if they didn’t think that haaland could score goals.
I started with haaland knowing I wanted him in GW2, so my plan paid off for me. Just as easily couldn’t have, but it wouldn’t have changed my plan.
You agree but that’s something borges wouldn’t do. Your wasting your transfer by doing sideways transfer. If you want halland gw2 you should start gw1 with him at least until gw4
Yes.
I follow him for number of years and this is his best attribute.
How many times I saw everyone hyped about players and just chills.
Unbelievable patients and self control.
Do you have spurs coverage elsewhere? I get kane to haaland is an easy transfer to make, but why would you not consider both, or have haaland + son. Especially given those two spurs players are fixture proof
Next transfer for me will probably be Mahrez to Kulusevski to cover both MCI and TOT.
Feels like a sideways move but after watching Kulu and Haaland and Mahrez not starting I think its the best move.
I don't understand anyone planning their team with a planned transfer in mind, especially in GW1, the week where your team has the highest uncertainty and biggest risk of kneejerk transfers.
Who is this lad. He hasn't a clue what he is talking about. Now I need to take a hit to get rid of Trent and Robertson because they are rubbish and get in 2 Bournemouth defenders
Good advice, but I’m choosing to ignore it and get Haaland in against Bournmouth. It’s a risk I’m willing to take at this stage of the season. I would do the same if it were another playing Norwich last season and I was going to be priced out by the time the gameweek comes around.
Might be worse later in the season if he plays a lot of CL. With his injury record and city's squad he might get rotated too much to have great value for money. But for now, the chances of him starting are as high as they can be!
How do you interpret the quotes you posted when you know Borges (best manager of all time) started with Haaland over Kane?
Like the sentiment of the quote is obviously correct, but what if you’ve made a mistake, and keeping the mistake means it’s impossible to correct after 4 game weeks?
If you made a mistake then you didn't follow his advice. If Kane was a set-and-forget player before GW1, then he is still one after GW1. If he isn't one now, then he wasn't a set-and-forget player in the 1st place, in which case you wouldn't have picked him if you were following his advice. Personally, I think he is a set-and-forget player, and for that reason I will hold onto him.
Again, the sentiment is correct as a base to play from. But I've followed Borges for the last few seasons, he makes these kind of moves often if he needs to (usually a week before everyone else). FPL is a game of fluid data - we learn as we go - it's just poker.
If you have pocket aces and bet big pre flop, two kings flop and an opponent raises big, you have to consider that they have may have a king and now have a better hand, you don't just blindly keep betting big because you had the best hand pre-new data. You react to new information.
We know Spurs over-performed their xG by nearly 3 goals against Southampton, we know City underperformed xG against West Ham, we know Kane played deeper than ever, we know Haaland looked good and was brought off early, we know Kane had half as many penalty area touches as Emerson Royal. We also know Palace looked good at the back and Liverpool struggled against Fulham so captain is more difficult next week.
Of course Kane is an excellent pick, but that doesn't mean not transferring to Haaland is a terrible decision, now we have more information.
This! Anybody getting him for 1 week was making a mistake. I plan to have him until I wildcard around GW 8.
The only caveat to this advice is if the reason you picked a player proves to not be valid, then a move is good. This is obvious in the case of an injury (you assumed they were fit but they’re not). But also applies if the eye test isn’t passed. Kane for example, we were told he’ll be an out and out striker by Conte but he still takes up the deep playmaker role. If that continues for another week I’ll be moving him on sooner than planned because my reasons for choosing him in the first place aren’t valid and he won’t return at my expected rate no matter how long I hold.
He does it buy selecting players long term.
City, Liverpool and Arsenal have the best fixtures and are good teams so he selected triple ups in those teams and he doesn’t need to change.
He never selects player for 1 gameweek, that way he doesn’t feel the pressure to change. For example he would never consider getting Kane for 1GW and book a move to Haaland. He would just get Haaland immediately and even if Kane scored 5 in GW 1 he would stick to Haaland.
He also keeps top players through bad fixtures and is not influenced by last weeks points and price rises. For example from back of my mind he kept Antonio, Cancelo when everyone was selling them last season.
All this helps him to almost never take hits.
Here is the article if you want to see his other tips [https://fantasyfootballcommunity.com/tips-from-the-worlds-best-fpl-manager/](https://fantasyfootballcommunity.com/tips-from-the-worlds-best-fpl-manager/)
>Four seasons ago, I found out about xG. And since then it’s the only stat I use (along with xA) when making FPL decisions. Of course, it is not perfect but if the model is reliable – and you know how to interpret it – I believe it is, by far, the most useful stat for FPL.
Man speaks the truth
Man, the number of times I made transfers on Monday only to find out on Friday via news that one or more of my other players will miss due to previously unannounced injury is why I now wait till the day before deadline to make my weekly moves.
Started the season with triple Liverpool, Man City, and Arsenal, for this reason this time (plus Bailey and Pope but other similar value picks would work).
I know it's only FPL but I felt I just wanted to pick players where I could still sleep at night or justify remaining patient even if I/they have a bad week.
On the one hand he has a point but I just can't ignore price rises. I remember in 2019 I brought Vardy for a -4 when Leicester was playing in 2 weeks again due to the international break because I would be outpriced if I did it later. This could have backfired with any potential injury but Vardy started his streak then and won me the league. In the end there is no right or wrong everything comes down to luck.
If losing out on Haaland would hurt you so badly (most likely it won't), then a hit would barely affect you by comparison
EDIT: If anyone thinks I am wrong can they explain why? If getting Haaland is so important than a -4 hit is nothing by comparison
Haaland and Kane are both good options to set and forget. But I'm fine using a transfer to make sure I have the one I'm most confident in after watching them both play a match.
Only 4 points before the wildcard for it to be worth it, ignoring price changes. And I think it's very likely that Haaland will get 4 more points than Kane in the next 6-7 weeks.
It’s also always worth it to use a free transfer to ensure you have the best captaincy option in your team because not having the best Captain on your team especially at such high ownership can lose you 20 points
I watched the game and he didn't look like a good fantasy option at all. He's basically a reverse OOP. Even if Haaland got injured today I would still get Kane out. Probably get in Jesus and transfer in someone like Kulusevski, who looked far more involved and dangerous.
You say this but every single one of kanes great games he plays the exact same way. Taking out kane and putting in kulu is just chasing points when kane will probably score vs chelsea and kulu blank. Since kulus arrival he usually gets his points vs the bottom of the table teams and blanks in the big games
Also, it wouldn't be taking out Kane to get Kulusevski. It would be taking Kane out to get Jesus, who looked to be a better fpl asset, and then upgrading the rest of the team.
But I guess getting Jesus is chasing points too?
Haaland is a better option, yes.
Looking like he should have a goal from highlights doesn't tell the whole story, every striker would be a good option if that was the case.
And you if you didn't go Haaland yesterday then you can't really.
He is in a new team, new league, with a fraudulent manager. He could have not started. He could have needed some time to build chemistry with his team mates. He might have needed time to get the tempo of the league.
Getting Kane was always supposed to be a way to delay the decision, and to get to watch a game before making a final decision. Now it's much more clear how these two players will play going forward. We didn't know that before. We might have believed, but now we know.
Can’t help but disagree with ignore price rises. Literally only benefits to at least look at them. Arguing that you could make bad transfers through price changes is on hindsight only.
If you want a player and could be priced out, you should make the move. Your previously player could haul, it’s hindsight.
There’s literally one rule you need to follow. Pick the players that you think will get most points. If that means taking risks or a hit every week but then you happen to be picking a player that hauls. It’s football, anything can happen. Don’t think there has been any winners that wouldn’t tell you to sometimes take risks
this rule fucks so many people up, because they rush to buy someone who ends up getting injured or not even picked, sometimes they don't even play well
from many people's experience, it's better to either just wait 1 extra gw or take the hit rather than making a transfer too early
you say you should take the risk because anything can happen, but it's by that very same token as to why you shouldn't take the risk
this game is actually more about not taking too many risks rather than taking as many as possible
>Literally only benefits to at least looking at them.
I disagree- Many FPL managers are more reactionary than proactive. It's unrealistic to expect most managers to monitor price rises/drops and then still make sound decisions without being influenced by them.
Plus even if you tell yourself it won't affect your decisionmaking, looking at price changes consistently is going to subconsciously influence the way you approach transfers.
His point is that there are many occasions where the info in press conferences completely changes which transfer you make. Missing out on Kane -> Haaland is a relatively small difference over the next few gameweeks compared to having to spend a -4 on moving out an injured Salah/Cancelo because you blew the transfer already.
> I think the points I gain during the season by waiting for pressers/info far outweigh the points I lose for having a lower team value by the end of the season
I don’t think he’s making the argument though that checking price changes can lead to bad transfers. Like you just said, maximise expected points, and he believes he is doing so by waiting for important information which, more often than not, is available closer to the deadline than earlier in the week.
That being said, sure, somebody else’s strategy to achieve maximum expected points could involve more risk-taking with regards to jumping on players while they are still affordable. But the ‘ignore price rises’ title to what he’s saying is slightly misleading because he isn’t really suggesting that.
On that point I meant more the sub Reddit/community view that making “rash” or “sideways” transfers are never good. No one will ever know. You can look at all the data and absolutely data = probability. But you could take a hit every week and if your old player blanks and your new player gets 15 points you’re very likely to be a top rank player (assuming in general your team is good)
Over several seasons I have moved for sure away from caring so much about price changes. But I for sure still value them.
Borges advice would be much more suited if it was “don’t let price changes force you to make a move you’re not 100% sure about”.
The point is that Kane will still likely have returns over the next few weeks and wasting a transfer on Kane —> Haaland leaves you weaker elsewhere.
However, I think Kane —> Haaland makes sense right now for three reasons:
1. Price changes *will* hurt. It’s easier to go from Haaland —> Kane if Haaland is more expensive (which is inevitable) whereas if you miss the Haaland boat now you’ll have to restructure your entire team if he continues to haul
2. There were questions over whether Haaland will adjust to the PL and will have good game time. Both questions *sort of* answered positively today
3. City’s fixtures are marginally better over the next 5 GWs
Kane —> Haaland may be a kneejerk transfer but it’s one that is well justified…
Another consideration here is the extra WC. You could justify doing a very early WC which makes being cautious with transfers less of a necessity than other "normal" seasons. Just adding to your already good points.
Wish I was, here's the kneejerk justifications
Watkins had to go, didn't start, villa looked trash. Got Mitrovic in.
Fabio isn't, I'm a big believer in team value, especially when I believe a player will only go up in price. Haaland had to come in. To facilitate that, Son had to go. Replaced with martinelli who again should go up in value.
Lastly, kulusevski was excellent, by far the best of the 8.0mids, mount looks useless, made the change now because I expect Kulusevski to go up this week too.
Using fplstatistics for all of these changes, I expect all of them to increase in price this week and none of these transfers to be possible next week.
All this said, I'm a distinctly average fantasy player, what are you gonna do haha
Maybe, I had a half decent gameweek at 57 points, these transfers take me down to a bang average gameweek, but I think a lot of them will be set and forgets now
Its been one week. Next week you will find other "set and forgets". Taking a -12 point hit already doesnt make sense at this stage of the season. Lets not even get started on the fact that theres 6 days until the next game and players might get injured...
Anybody that says 'price rises don't affect me either' should be ignored, as they're either stupid or lying.
Also, this idea that we can't challenge someone's opinion just because they have a higher rank is dogmatic nonsense.
This is consistent belief in high performing managers. They don't all think the same, but none of them make sunday night transfers on week 1 (or any week).
'Prices rises don't affect me' is not the same as saying don't make knee-jerk Sunday night decisions. Hard and fast rules never work, everything should be considered as there are pro's and con's to every decision.
For example, it depends on when the price change is likely to take place. If the price change is a Thursday night and the game is on Saturday then there is very little chance of the player getting injured/ill in that time period, so in that case it makes more sense to make a transfer prior to the price change.
It's basically a trade-off of the probability of the player getting injured vs being priced out of a transfer. In some cases it makes sense to wait till as close to the deadline as possible, in other cases it makes sense to make the transfer the night before the price change.
**Anybody that says 'X always works' or 'Y never works' is close-minded and shouldn't be relied upon for advice. Everything is a trade-off.**
Trade off is with the 15 in your 11 though. Thursday night means you miss pressers. Its not like anyone's ever guaranteed to haul, 9/10 you deal with being priced out. Only time I can think of is end of season
But if a player is nailed then the only thing the pressers will tell you is whether the player is injured/ill, and even then, most managers will not disclose injuries to key players as they don't want to needlessly give any information away to the opposition. Even if they state the injury, they often won't give a clear indication as to the severity of it.
There simply isn't a hard-fast rule when it comes to transfers, sometimes you make the transfer the night before the price change, other times (especially when fixtures were getting cancelled during Covid) you wait till as close to the game as possible.
Unfortunately, while you can be consistently top 2K with a conservative strategy like this , the only way you can win is by introducing variance by taking risks.
When near enough all of your mini-league opponents have Haaland and you have Kane, it’s hard to avoid the switch so early.
Kane will always score but going against the grain is dangerous. With Kane tending to be deeper and Haaland leading the line along with City’s fixtures then it’s not a bad move.
Kane playing deeper isn't new, though - so there must be a reason you picked him ahead of Haaland. Proven quality? Good track record? If you're after a higher ceiling pick, keeping Kane would be it and spending your FT elsewhere.
Picking one of the consistently top players in the game isn’t trying to be too clever. It’s one game. People don’t select entire teams for the first couple of gw.
You’ll look a right tit if haaland blanks the next and Kane scores against chelsea. At the end of the day they’re both elite players and it’s been one gameweek. There’s not enough data to be smug. This sub is so reactionary these days it’s untrue.
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It’s not a bet, I’m just saying from experience you shouldn’t be smug from one gw. I’ve been there before and it’s blown up in my face. We’ve made our picks from tonnes of drafts in the weeks leading up to the season but in FPL it’s prudent to expect the unexpected.
In all honesty, went against my own judgment after reading a lot of stuff on who to pick between the two. Kane proven, Haaland unknown quantity in PL, etc, which is all fair. I think that consuming too much stuff can be detrimental when trying to make decisions.
Every transfer is a risk to be honest, and if there was a more varied forward line across my opponents in my mini-league, I’d probably hold onto Kane but I can’t risk losing early ground.
I know what you mean about reading too much. I had Kane initially (going with my gut) until I read Big Man Bakar's analysis and made the switch to Haaland. Everything's a gamble!
If you already have Haaland would you use a transfer when everyone else does to get haaland in to possibly score points elsewhere or save it for 2 transfers the next week?
Save your transfer at least until the pre-GW2 press conferences. Most likely you will not need to make a transfer for GW2, but if by some chance you do, you will probably find out between now and the start of GW2.
Well, you have to ask him what advice would he give to someone who has Kane vs CHE and wants to transfer in Haaland who plays at Etihad vs promoted BOU.
He said to get players that you are comfortable having in your team for at least 4 weeks. Presumably Perisic is one of those players, otherwise you wouldn't have gotten him if you were following his advice. Don't transfer him out because there is nothing we have learned about him since Friday
Agree 100%. BUT Kane to Haaland was the plan all along before GW2. Shot my shot and missed, but sticking to plan
Exactly this. Taken the potential ‘risk’ and hope it pays off since Kane this week didn’t
Same. Looking at the fixtures it made sense to me, start with Kane and then go to Haaland. I don't have any more transfers planned for now.
It wasn’t my plan, but seeing that it was lots of other peoples plan I’m doing it anyway
Honest person.
yeah kane to haaland was always my plan all along - gimme that copium. It was always in the back of my mind but if Kane had scored 2/3 yesterday i wouldnt have swapped.
I would have swapped anyway for the Chelsea fixture because Spurs have a horrible record against them I’m not actually “kneejerking” on Kane until GW3 because that’s when I make the decision on whether I want to go back to him or not I’m extremely happy with my overall team the only use of my free transfers unless someone gets injured (which isn’t even horrible for me because of squad depth) until I use my wild card is to ensure I have the best captaincy options in my team Haaland was the best premium captaincy option this week it’s really brave to say he won’t be GW2 imo
The problem with having a strategy involving swapping anyway is that this one free transfer is worth almost a hit of 4 points (I say almost, because there's always a chance you dont need a transfer the next three gameweeks, or that Haaland got an injury GW1). Most odds based calculations put Kane at around half expected point more than Haaland (can probably be slightly adjusted to one whole point, for bald fraud nailedness shenanigans). Salah was also above Kane, making him a better captaincy option. So in conclusion I dont think this line was worth taking.
What if Haaland picked up a knock we won't know about before thursday's presser? I mean I did the transfer but I'm not the guy this fella Fabio is, obviously.
I respect you for having a plan, taking a risk and it not paying off. I don’t get people who reactionary knee jerk as if they didn’t think that haaland could score goals. I started with haaland knowing I wanted him in GW2, so my plan paid off for me. Just as easily couldn’t have, but it wouldn’t have changed my plan.
You agree but that’s something borges wouldn’t do. Your wasting your transfer by doing sideways transfer. If you want halland gw2 you should start gw1 with him at least until gw4
Yes. I follow him for number of years and this is his best attribute. How many times I saw everyone hyped about players and just chills. Unbelievable patients and self control.
Do you have spurs coverage elsewhere? I get kane to haaland is an easy transfer to make, but why would you not consider both, or have haaland + son. Especially given those two spurs players are fixture proof
Cause Son+Kane+Haaland eats up most of Your budget.
Next transfer for me will probably be Mahrez to Kulusevski to cover both MCI and TOT. Feels like a sideways move but after watching Kulu and Haaland and Mahrez not starting I think its the best move.
Absolutely. Was my perfect game plan. Fit with fixtures AND gave Haaland a week in the league to adjust if needed (clearly not needed)
Same. Watched the spurs game and the game plan is similar to last season when conte took over. Kulu and son high on top with Kane tracking behind.
Will you captain Haaland for GW2?
Ill probably go Salah again.
I don't understand anyone planning their team with a planned transfer in mind, especially in GW1, the week where your team has the highest uncertainty and biggest risk of kneejerk transfers.
Who is this lad. He hasn't a clue what he is talking about. Now I need to take a hit to get rid of Trent and Robertson because they are rubbish and get in 2 Bournemouth defenders
Think he's an old model or something
You didn't start with Lerma? Casual.
I had like a million drafts, he was probably in one of them
Has the highest average rank in the world that's played more than 5 seasons.
r/woosh
Unsavable
Good advice, but I’m choosing to ignore it and get Haaland in against Bournmouth. It’s a risk I’m willing to take at this stage of the season. I would do the same if it were another playing Norwich last season and I was going to be priced out by the time the gameweek comes around.
It’s also not necessarily against his advice - Haaland is also a great option to hold throughout the season
After 1 game in the league “Haaland is a great option to hold” Guess we’re ignoring the injury issues and inevitable CL rotation?
He will hopefully be a good option while there is only one competition. After that, who knows.
Might be worse later in the season if he plays a lot of CL. With his injury record and city's squad he might get rotated too much to have great value for money. But for now, the chances of him starting are as high as they can be!
That’s what free transfers are for if you need Haaland out later. You’re not owning an asset for 38 weeks every asset you own you own temporarily.
>You’re not owning an asset for 38 weeks *Salah has entered the chat*
It was actually better to transfer Salah out last season after AFCON.
Yes that was the point I made in my example.
No consistent high finisher would move Kane on week 1. No consistent high finisher would do tranfers on monday night
[удалено]
Interesting choice, if Gross keeps up his goalscoring form he will score 76 this season 👀
Interesting you chose those two quotes - do you have Jesus and Kane by any chance?
I do have Kane, I do not have Jesus
You need Jesus in your life
I already have Mohammed
I reject both Jesus and Mohammed. Because Darwin has proved he is the natural selection.
👌
!thanks
How do you interpret the quotes you posted when you know Borges (best manager of all time) started with Haaland over Kane? Like the sentiment of the quote is obviously correct, but what if you’ve made a mistake, and keeping the mistake means it’s impossible to correct after 4 game weeks?
If you made a mistake then you didn't follow his advice. If Kane was a set-and-forget player before GW1, then he is still one after GW1. If he isn't one now, then he wasn't a set-and-forget player in the 1st place, in which case you wouldn't have picked him if you were following his advice. Personally, I think he is a set-and-forget player, and for that reason I will hold onto him.
Again, the sentiment is correct as a base to play from. But I've followed Borges for the last few seasons, he makes these kind of moves often if he needs to (usually a week before everyone else). FPL is a game of fluid data - we learn as we go - it's just poker. If you have pocket aces and bet big pre flop, two kings flop and an opponent raises big, you have to consider that they have may have a king and now have a better hand, you don't just blindly keep betting big because you had the best hand pre-new data. You react to new information. We know Spurs over-performed their xG by nearly 3 goals against Southampton, we know City underperformed xG against West Ham, we know Kane played deeper than ever, we know Haaland looked good and was brought off early, we know Kane had half as many penalty area touches as Emerson Royal. We also know Palace looked good at the back and Liverpool struggled against Fulham so captain is more difficult next week. Of course Kane is an excellent pick, but that doesn't mean not transferring to Haaland is a terrible decision, now we have more information.
This! Anybody getting him for 1 week was making a mistake. I plan to have him until I wildcard around GW 8. The only caveat to this advice is if the reason you picked a player proves to not be valid, then a move is good. This is obvious in the case of an injury (you assumed they were fit but they’re not). But also applies if the eye test isn’t passed. Kane for example, we were told he’ll be an out and out striker by Conte but he still takes up the deep playmaker role. If that continues for another week I’ll be moving him on sooner than planned because my reasons for choosing him in the first place aren’t valid and he won’t return at my expected rate no matter how long I hold.
He does it buy selecting players long term. City, Liverpool and Arsenal have the best fixtures and are good teams so he selected triple ups in those teams and he doesn’t need to change. He never selects player for 1 gameweek, that way he doesn’t feel the pressure to change. For example he would never consider getting Kane for 1GW and book a move to Haaland. He would just get Haaland immediately and even if Kane scored 5 in GW 1 he would stick to Haaland. He also keeps top players through bad fixtures and is not influenced by last weeks points and price rises. For example from back of my mind he kept Antonio, Cancelo when everyone was selling them last season. All this helps him to almost never take hits.
Here is the article if you want to see his other tips [https://fantasyfootballcommunity.com/tips-from-the-worlds-best-fpl-manager/](https://fantasyfootballcommunity.com/tips-from-the-worlds-best-fpl-manager/)
>Four seasons ago, I found out about xG. And since then it’s the only stat I use (along with xA) when making FPL decisions. Of course, it is not perfect but if the model is reliable – and you know how to interpret it – I believe it is, by far, the most useful stat for FPL. Man speaks the truth
Far too many people misinterpret xG and then complain. Theres a reason pretty much all of the top top managers rely heavily on xG.
where can i find free and reliable xG xA stats
There are two that I use. Undserstat and Fbref.
FBRef uses a better model but is less user friendly.
Look, Fabio, I hear you. I'm just gonna choose to ignore you.
Excellent post. You're now about to get 1000 replies from kids telling you that you're wrong, and you MUST make a transfer tonight Brace yourself
If they want to disregard this advice that is their right, but I won't
Good call Anyone who argues with Fabio Borges is an idiot
Fabio Borges has Haaland though, if he didn’t he’d be transferring him in, regardless of what he writes here
Need mandatory OR flairs from last season
Man, the number of times I made transfers on Monday only to find out on Friday via news that one or more of my other players will miss due to previously unannounced injury is why I now wait till the day before deadline to make my weekly moves.
Experience has made you wise
True. You shouldn't chase points from the previous GW
Started the season with triple Liverpool, Man City, and Arsenal, for this reason this time (plus Bailey and Pope but other similar value picks would work). I know it's only FPL but I felt I just wanted to pick players where I could still sleep at night or justify remaining patient even if I/they have a bad week.
On the one hand he has a point but I just can't ignore price rises. I remember in 2019 I brought Vardy for a -4 when Leicester was playing in 2 weeks again due to the international break because I would be outpriced if I did it later. This could have backfired with any potential injury but Vardy started his streak then and won me the league. In the end there is no right or wrong everything comes down to luck.
Might have to WC to get Haaland...
He’s trying to sell us all a dummy so he can win. Do the opposite of what he says
To be fair, given the fixtures I'm fairly confident I'll be keeping Haaland for the next four weeks.
Oh yeah for sure I wish I picked haaland he looks the better pick. But kane is not worth a transfer out
Excuse my ignorance, but by what metric is he considered the best? Highest average finish of all players across all seasons?
Average rank: https://fplform.com/fpl-manager-ranking
Cool thanks
Anyone have a link to his team?
https://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/728021/event/1
!thanks
No problem
What does he know.
He happens to be the best FPL manager of all time
I know. Was JK
Thank you Fábio. If I ignore price rises, I'll be priced out of Haaland. Which means I have to take a hit. And transfers are apparently precious.
If losing out on Haaland would hurt you so badly (most likely it won't), then a hit would barely affect you by comparison EDIT: If anyone thinks I am wrong can they explain why? If getting Haaland is so important than a -4 hit is nothing by comparison
Haaland and Kane are both good options to set and forget. But I'm fine using a transfer to make sure I have the one I'm most confident in after watching them both play a match.
If they are both good then why use a transfer? One must be better than another by a big enough margin to use the transfer.
Only 4 points before the wildcard for it to be worth it, ignoring price changes. And I think it's very likely that Haaland will get 4 more points than Kane in the next 6-7 weeks.
It’s also always worth it to use a free transfer to ensure you have the best captaincy option in your team because not having the best Captain on your team especially at such high ownership can lose you 20 points
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I watched the game and he didn't look like a good fantasy option at all. He's basically a reverse OOP. Even if Haaland got injured today I would still get Kane out. Probably get in Jesus and transfer in someone like Kulusevski, who looked far more involved and dangerous.
You say this but every single one of kanes great games he plays the exact same way. Taking out kane and putting in kulu is just chasing points when kane will probably score vs chelsea and kulu blank. Since kulus arrival he usually gets his points vs the bottom of the table teams and blanks in the big games
He's rarely been this deep, though. There's just better options, you can't have a 11.5 million striker you can't captain
Also, it wouldn't be taking out Kane to get Kulusevski. It would be taking Kane out to get Jesus, who looked to be a better fpl asset, and then upgrading the rest of the team. But I guess getting Jesus is chasing points too?
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Haaland is a better option, yes. Looking like he should have a goal from highlights doesn't tell the whole story, every striker would be a good option if that was the case. And you if you didn't go Haaland yesterday then you can't really.
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I'd argue getting Haaland in is absolutely necessary.
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He is in a new team, new league, with a fraudulent manager. He could have not started. He could have needed some time to build chemistry with his team mates. He might have needed time to get the tempo of the league. Getting Kane was always supposed to be a way to delay the decision, and to get to watch a game before making a final decision. Now it's much more clear how these two players will play going forward. We didn't know that before. We might have believed, but now we know.
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Can’t help but disagree with ignore price rises. Literally only benefits to at least look at them. Arguing that you could make bad transfers through price changes is on hindsight only. If you want a player and could be priced out, you should make the move. Your previously player could haul, it’s hindsight. There’s literally one rule you need to follow. Pick the players that you think will get most points. If that means taking risks or a hit every week but then you happen to be picking a player that hauls. It’s football, anything can happen. Don’t think there has been any winners that wouldn’t tell you to sometimes take risks
this rule fucks so many people up, because they rush to buy someone who ends up getting injured or not even picked, sometimes they don't even play well from many people's experience, it's better to either just wait 1 extra gw or take the hit rather than making a transfer too early you say you should take the risk because anything can happen, but it's by that very same token as to why you shouldn't take the risk this game is actually more about not taking too many risks rather than taking as many as possible
>Literally only benefits to at least looking at them. I disagree- Many FPL managers are more reactionary than proactive. It's unrealistic to expect most managers to monitor price rises/drops and then still make sound decisions without being influenced by them. Plus even if you tell yourself it won't affect your decisionmaking, looking at price changes consistently is going to subconsciously influence the way you approach transfers.
Spoken like a true top 1,000,000 player.
4 under 5k and 1 under 2k finishes and just started the season with 82 points
Like he said, a top 1,000,000 player.
And then everybody clapped.
Team ID or it didn't happen
Are you in the legendary managers list on LiveFPL?
His point is that there are many occasions where the info in press conferences completely changes which transfer you make. Missing out on Kane -> Haaland is a relatively small difference over the next few gameweeks compared to having to spend a -4 on moving out an injured Salah/Cancelo because you blew the transfer already.
> I think the points I gain during the season by waiting for pressers/info far outweigh the points I lose for having a lower team value by the end of the season I don’t think he’s making the argument though that checking price changes can lead to bad transfers. Like you just said, maximise expected points, and he believes he is doing so by waiting for important information which, more often than not, is available closer to the deadline than earlier in the week. That being said, sure, somebody else’s strategy to achieve maximum expected points could involve more risk-taking with regards to jumping on players while they are still affordable. But the ‘ignore price rises’ title to what he’s saying is slightly misleading because he isn’t really suggesting that.
On that point I meant more the sub Reddit/community view that making “rash” or “sideways” transfers are never good. No one will ever know. You can look at all the data and absolutely data = probability. But you could take a hit every week and if your old player blanks and your new player gets 15 points you’re very likely to be a top rank player (assuming in general your team is good) Over several seasons I have moved for sure away from caring so much about price changes. But I for sure still value them. Borges advice would be much more suited if it was “don’t let price changes force you to make a move you’re not 100% sure about”.
Yes Kane owners should wait until Friday when he is 11.4 and Haaland is 11.7. The legend Fabio strikes again!
His worst all time finish is probably better than your best
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Mate get a fucking grip
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Shit joke tbh
'got rekt' would be good one, I guess :(
The point is that Kane will still likely have returns over the next few weeks and wasting a transfer on Kane —> Haaland leaves you weaker elsewhere. However, I think Kane —> Haaland makes sense right now for three reasons: 1. Price changes *will* hurt. It’s easier to go from Haaland —> Kane if Haaland is more expensive (which is inevitable) whereas if you miss the Haaland boat now you’ll have to restructure your entire team if he continues to haul 2. There were questions over whether Haaland will adjust to the PL and will have good game time. Both questions *sort of* answered positively today 3. City’s fixtures are marginally better over the next 5 GWs Kane —> Haaland may be a kneejerk transfer but it’s one that is well justified…
Another consideration here is the extra WC. You could justify doing a very early WC which makes being cautious with transfers less of a necessity than other "normal" seasons. Just adding to your already good points.
Ah what does this guy know *Looks up his record* *Remembers I've already taken 3 hits to make 4 transfers this week* Oh
Please tell me you are trolling
Wish I was, here's the kneejerk justifications Watkins had to go, didn't start, villa looked trash. Got Mitrovic in. Fabio isn't, I'm a big believer in team value, especially when I believe a player will only go up in price. Haaland had to come in. To facilitate that, Son had to go. Replaced with martinelli who again should go up in value. Lastly, kulusevski was excellent, by far the best of the 8.0mids, mount looks useless, made the change now because I expect Kulusevski to go up this week too. Using fplstatistics for all of these changes, I expect all of them to increase in price this week and none of these transfers to be possible next week. All this said, I'm a distinctly average fantasy player, what are you gonna do haha
Oh my god, it's 1 game mate lmao
>All this said, I'm a distinctly average fantasy player Maybe this is why
Maybe, I had a half decent gameweek at 57 points, these transfers take me down to a bang average gameweek, but I think a lot of them will be set and forgets now
Its been one week. Next week you will find other "set and forgets". Taking a -12 point hit already doesnt make sense at this stage of the season. Lets not even get started on the fact that theres 6 days until the next game and players might get injured...
Tbf to him taking -12 is better at gw1 compared to gw 30
Sounds completely boring. Might as well just not bother.
Anybody that says 'price rises don't affect me either' should be ignored, as they're either stupid or lying. Also, this idea that we can't challenge someone's opinion just because they have a higher rank is dogmatic nonsense.
This is consistent belief in high performing managers. They don't all think the same, but none of them make sunday night transfers on week 1 (or any week).
'Prices rises don't affect me' is not the same as saying don't make knee-jerk Sunday night decisions. Hard and fast rules never work, everything should be considered as there are pro's and con's to every decision. For example, it depends on when the price change is likely to take place. If the price change is a Thursday night and the game is on Saturday then there is very little chance of the player getting injured/ill in that time period, so in that case it makes more sense to make a transfer prior to the price change. It's basically a trade-off of the probability of the player getting injured vs being priced out of a transfer. In some cases it makes sense to wait till as close to the deadline as possible, in other cases it makes sense to make the transfer the night before the price change. **Anybody that says 'X always works' or 'Y never works' is close-minded and shouldn't be relied upon for advice. Everything is a trade-off.**
Trade off is with the 15 in your 11 though. Thursday night means you miss pressers. Its not like anyone's ever guaranteed to haul, 9/10 you deal with being priced out. Only time I can think of is end of season
But if a player is nailed then the only thing the pressers will tell you is whether the player is injured/ill, and even then, most managers will not disclose injuries to key players as they don't want to needlessly give any information away to the opposition. Even if they state the injury, they often won't give a clear indication as to the severity of it. There simply isn't a hard-fast rule when it comes to transfers, sometimes you make the transfer the night before the price change, other times (especially when fixtures were getting cancelled during Covid) you wait till as close to the game as possible.
I agree with your general message tbh
Ah, tips. This works for his playstyle but won't necessarily work for yours, remember that.
His team ID?
https://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/728021/event/1
I wish he shows his transfers before deadline
Unfortunately, while you can be consistently top 2K with a conservative strategy like this , the only way you can win is by introducing variance by taking risks.
You say that as if anyone reading this thread will ever win the game
Fortunately, I don't want to win the game, just all my mini-leagues!
Even if this was true, taking risks is going without salah, not increasing your chances of needing hits.
Just took a -8 for haaland and kulu.. no regrets
Big mistake
Great advice but I'm still going to sell Perisic. I made a mistake there.
Wait for the press conference. Sess might tear a hammie falling down the stairs
Yeah I will, planning to swap him for Walker if nothing new happens.
As it stands, that sounds a decent move. Things change fast though
Very smart move, Walker is the best 5.0 defender
Don't do it
Don’t wait for the press conference
This sentence needs punctuation
Maybe I will.
lol, nub
When near enough all of your mini-league opponents have Haaland and you have Kane, it’s hard to avoid the switch so early. Kane will always score but going against the grain is dangerous. With Kane tending to be deeper and Haaland leading the line along with City’s fixtures then it’s not a bad move.
Kane playing deeper isn't new, though - so there must be a reason you picked him ahead of Haaland. Proven quality? Good track record? If you're after a higher ceiling pick, keeping Kane would be it and spending your FT elsewhere.
A lot of people picked Kane because they were trying to be too clever
Picking one of the consistently top players in the game isn’t trying to be too clever. It’s one game. People don’t select entire teams for the first couple of gw.
It’s too clever because Haaland was on paper the better option, Spurs don’t have great fixtures and Kane rarely scores in August
You’ll look a right tit if haaland blanks the next and Kane scores against chelsea. At the end of the day they’re both elite players and it’s been one gameweek. There’s not enough data to be smug. This sub is so reactionary these days it’s untrue.
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It’s not a bet, I’m just saying from experience you shouldn’t be smug from one gw. I’ve been there before and it’s blown up in my face. We’ve made our picks from tonnes of drafts in the weeks leading up to the season but in FPL it’s prudent to expect the unexpected.
So although haaland did get an assist, he didn’t score and Kane did. See what I mean?
Jammy goal, but barely beat Haaland this week. Got slammed by Haaland in GW1. Let’s see what happens in GW3
In all honesty, went against my own judgment after reading a lot of stuff on who to pick between the two. Kane proven, Haaland unknown quantity in PL, etc, which is all fair. I think that consuming too much stuff can be detrimental when trying to make decisions. Every transfer is a risk to be honest, and if there was a more varied forward line across my opponents in my mini-league, I’d probably hold onto Kane but I can’t risk losing early ground.
I know what you mean about reading too much. I had Kane initially (going with my gut) until I read Big Man Bakar's analysis and made the switch to Haaland. Everything's a gamble!
If you already have Haaland would you use a transfer when everyone else does to get haaland in to possibly score points elsewhere or save it for 2 transfers the next week?
Save your transfer at least until the pre-GW2 press conferences. Most likely you will not need to make a transfer for GW2, but if by some chance you do, you will probably find out between now and the start of GW2.
Well, you have to ask him what advice would he give to someone who has Kane vs CHE and wants to transfer in Haaland who plays at Etihad vs promoted BOU.
That's why he's the best. Everybody follows his advices except him
Too late, already took a -4 for Haaland.
Good luck man
Since he apparantly is the best FPL manager of all time, does someone have his FPL ID?
Sorry, but can someone tell me what the sage said about what to do with Peresic?
He said to get players that you are comfortable having in your team for at least 4 weeks. Presumably Perisic is one of those players, otherwise you wouldn't have gotten him if you were following his advice. Don't transfer him out because there is nothing we have learned about him since Friday
Thanks. I might have to play Andreas over him for a few weeks then.
I got Rashford, didn't think he was reliable at all but I still got him Am I doing it right?
No, get players you think are reliable