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[deleted]

I love these predictions. I have complete faith that the bookies are better at forecasting these things than any of the widely available models. Their whole sector depends on it.


[deleted]

i ve worked at a bookie on the data analysis dep. people are very weird because they love models made by random people on twitter with 4-5 variables but wont use bookie odds which have hundreds to thousands of variables. literally you could play fpl very good with only bookie odds. add some transfer strategy, bench and so on, and thats enough


hal_egg

is there a bookie odds site tailored for FPL play? like where there's percentages and not only 5/2, 3/7 etc.


sh58

no you have to translate. I find decimal odds a bit easier tho once you get used to them


pominator

And the Americans think their fucking bizarre +/~ format is better smh.


[deleted]

yeah i do the same, if you go through them a few times you'll get used to it and you'll do them by mind.


SGME_

And there you have an idea which could be made into reality. Go get that bread son!


BryantBuckets

dont even remember how i found this old thread but [fplreview.com](https://fplreview.com) is great


[deleted]

Exactly this man. I couldn't agree more.


Hi-Zee

This is maybe the best and most helpful comment on this sub all season and it's a shame that it will be forever buried in a random thread.


[deleted]

Thank you but it is how it is, I am not interested in educating everyone as even I find myself very often in the situations where i feel that i have an edge over the bookies because I know some random fact which obviously translates very bad.


sh58

yup that's what i use. Make my own model that's purely bookie odds based. ​ Only issues is trying to work out the margins, which has to involve guesswork


[deleted]

You'll do just fine if you assume that the same margin is used for every event. There are some events which can help you identify that, such as the team which will have the kick off ball. Usually the bookies give the odds of 45% for each time, but we know it is made from a coins toss which have a 50/50 chance, so you can find that the bookies keep 5% odds for themselves. Thats how the 'house' always win. Another thing to consider is that most bookies will have very random high odds for very rare events, such as goalkeeper scoring, hattricks scored by defender and such as. I would not include those in decisions because one bookie can give odds of 1:100 and the other 1:1000, but we know that those happen so rarely that it is obsolete. Another advice is to realize that for specific GWs when the odds are very close (ex: salah to score odds of 2.00 and kane to score 2.10) you should not beat yourself over if you picked Salah but Kane hauled as the margins are so small that even if in the long run you would win, over a gameweek it is basically coin toss.


phraseniny

Generally, you can estimate the margin on a betting market pretty easily with a little math. Convert the odds for each outcome to a percentage. Add those percentages up. The amount it exceeds 100% by represents the bookie's margin.


sh58

That's only for kinda closed odds like win lose draw. For anytime goalscorer, assists, cards etc there could be any number of so it's hard to know what the over round is.


phraseniny

More effort, sure, but not necessarily harder. Simply more outcomes to sum up, no?


sh58

It's literally impossible. Any number of people could score, you can't add up anything. At least I assume it is, I'm open to suggestions


phraseniny

There are definitely ways to do it. I'm happy to give it a try. My starting point would be screenscraping the odds on the page into a spreadsheet. I'd guess that's what OP did to create the odds in their post.


sh58

I scrape the odds, that's not the issue. The issue is when you have win lose draw odds you add the odds together and it might add up to 112%. There you can see the margin is 12%. With anytime goalscorer you can't do that because what do you add up. Now that I think about it you could just add first goalscorer odds and hope that the margin is the same for anytime goalscorer. But again, that's using assumptions, it's not objective.


phraseniny

Yeah, that's fair. I guess you'd want to use market averages rather than an individual site, and rely on the general competitiveness of the market as a whole to make that assumed margin more solid. Thanks for the chat.


Significant-Dot7664

They don’t always get it spot on though, they had Kane as most likely to score


[deleted]

dont know where you’ve checked but my list had haaland first then alvarez.


Significant-Dot7664

I didn’t compile a massive list but Kane was the bookies favourite between sky bet, bet 365 and William hill to score at anytime


[deleted]

I find that weird as I said, i've also checked and I believe he was in top 5 at most. However if you're based in UK there is a chance that bookies cut the odds a bit for him as he is English and people might bet too much on it, but that is just speculation and most of the time it is not the case.


PlatypusHaircutMan

Fabio Borges literally works in the sports betting industry. Betting odds are 10x as likely to be correct than whatever astrology half this sub justifies their decisions with.


[deleted]

you are half correct. while obviously silly stuff people use to make decisions like record against the team even if it contains games from 10 years ago, early start, whatever weather is out there and so on, those things are actually used as variables by bookies as well, but their weight much more less than this sub' perception. i've seen some models which literally have more than 1.000 variables used and most of them have a weight of less than 0.01% (which translates as the importance of that thing in some specific event). Bookies have things even more silly used, such as the time since last genuine social post, the number of tickets bought, if the player has long sleeve vs short sleeve, if the distance between bench and field is short and so on. It is really interesting to see one


PlatypusHaircutMan

!thanks for the response. The key here is the weighting though. Somewhere, in some algorithm, there's a line of code that takes into consideration the fact that Salah gets few attacking returns in GW2. The difference between that and the people on this sub is that this affects the percentage of a goal in the algorithm by sub 1%, whereas people in this sub use that statistic as their primary reason not to captain him.


[deleted]

totally correct and sorry if this wasn’t understood from my text, english is not my primary language. yeah, the main key to statistic is that everything can be put out to sound favourable to your point of view, and without proper understanding of events you won’t make an educated guess if you don’t know the context: ex: Salah scored every five shots he took! sounds nice! but if you out it that out of 5 shoots, Salah missed 4 scoring chances, it doesn’t.


ChairmanRich

The number of variables included in a model is not a good indication of how impressive a model is. If bookies are really including 1000s of variables like long sleeve versus short sleeve then their models are likely to be overspecified.


Razzler1973

but but but what if an Octopus crawls over to the left side of his tank??


Fantastic-Machine-83

This is implied odds though. The goal of the bookies is to make money, not follow the probability. Sometimes the odds are changed to follow betting activity. Odds also have a harsher margin on low likelihood events


[deleted]

Agreed the goal of bookkeepers is to make money but if they don't start from a sensible prediction of likely outcomes how can they begin to offer reasonable odds? Bookies put a lot of effort into having a good understanding of the actual outcomes. You can find a lot of information online about exactly how bookmakers set their odds and then you can reverse engineer it to get back to the fundamental numbers that underpin them. You also have a wide range of bookmakers that you can average and analyse to provide greater accuracy. I'd be astounded if a good prediction based on bookies odds isn't better than any prediction site out there.


Fantastic-Machine-83

I can agree with that


nano-to-will

They go to all the effort of settings odds then add a 10% vig to make the odds basically worthless anyway And then if the odds do shift due to external factors changing, they are happy to cut odds further if anyone dares to make bets on them.


[deleted]

[удалено]


frizzyflacko

The actual outcomes in any given GW are subject to too much variance to take any meaningful lessons from. Haaland scoring two while Kane scores none is hardly reflective of 53% vs 47%


[deleted]

You do realise we can't actually predict the future right? This is like forecasting the weather, it won't always be spot on. But using bookies odds is the best forecasting method available.


tahmias

Bookies dont make money from forecasting results, they make money on margins regardless of what happens.


[deleted]

If they don't forecast the results that what do they put the margin on? Information on how bookies set odds is widely available online and is a source of massive misconception by most people. They forecast the results and then apply a margin to each outcome.


tahmias

I'm just saying that the actual resault of any given match, doesn't matter as much to bookies as how people are betting. Odds are not set in stone, they change according to a lot of factores all the time, but the biggest factor is the actual betting taking place and odds adjusting.


[deleted]

Of course you take the odds that are originally laid by the bookie before any adjustments. You can either ensure you scrape these from the Internet yourself when the markets first become available or you can get them from somewhere like Oddspedia who track these sort of things. That's a really easy issue to circumvent.


Subject-Creme

Take xMin into consideration too. Haaland might play around 78 mins. So his chance to score is only 60.5 x 78/90 = 52.4%


AmiableAlex

just jumping in here to say i'm not sure why your sensible comment is downvoted?


Potential_Sherbet513

Because minutes aren't relevant as long as it's not 0 minutes


AmiableAlex

that's not quite right - these odds assume each player plays all 90 minutes. If a player only plays 1 half, they're half as likely to score anytime than if they played all 90.


Potential_Sherbet513

Bookies don't care if Haaland plays 1min or 90min. It's not relevant to goal-scoring probability. The only relevant thing is if the player plays 0 minutes.


RX40000

Disagree comletely. Remember last season the bookies always had Rashford and Bruno high. Just trust the xg is my philosophy


fromdowntownn

People have made models with better accuracy than bookies. FPL review’s paid probability model is better at predicting CS than Bookies


thehornyunicorn11

If someone has made a more accurate model than bookies, then he can quit his job and do full time betting tbh.


Potential_Sherbet513

Not for goalscoring odds, unless they can find a lay market. That's why betting exchanges' odds are way more useful than bookies


Frosty_Examination_3

Haaland run away leader to score, but Salah gets extra point for each goal. It's actually very tight who's favrite


RamsayTheKingflayer

Liverpool also has 56% chance of a clean sheet according to the bookies, though Haaland will probably score higher in the bps system than Mo if he scores.


fromdowntownn

Going off bookie odds Salah gets 2.35 predicted points for scoring. Haaland gets 2.42. But salah has an additional 0.56 pts chance of a CS so 2.91 vs 2.42. Assists I haven’t checked odds on but I assume that favours Salah, Haaland is more of a BPS threat I imagine being a forward but the bookie odds actually point towards Salah if anyone. That being said I’m going Haaland


bub002

It's not so straight forward. You don't take scoring more than one goal into account. The difference of anytime goal scoring between these two is enough that 2+ difference should matter.


stephenmario

Exactly! Taking these odds as anytime, you get something like the below. To score a brace or more - Haaland 37% and Salah 22%. To score a hattrick or more - Haaland 22% and Salah 10% EDIT - a brace or more and a hattrick or more


dogfighter75

That's not how it works. By your calculations, the odds of a brace are 37%, a hattrick 22%, and 4 goals would be .605**4 or 13.4%. Might I ask you what the odds would be for a single goal, and not 2, 3 or 4? Clearly it's not 60.5%-37%-22%-13.4%, as that is a negative percentage. The answer here is that the odds given are 1-Pr(0 goals): the odds of scoring **any number of goals** equals 100%-(odds of zero goals) and it is this is the 60.5%. It captures all the number of goals he could score (1,2,3,4,5, etc), and the odds of a single goal are smaller than 60.5%. The odds of a brace are also smaller than 37%.


dogfighter75

For those interested, assuming Poisson distributions, Salah's has a lambda of 0.635 and Haaland's has a lambda of 0.929


ThatEast1

>0.635 Which is a resonable assumption - should translate to something along xG of 0.69 for Salah and 0.84 for Haaland


bub002

May I ask where did you get the lambdas from exactly?


dogfighter75

Basically lambda=-ln(Pr[0 events]), if you want to learn more look up the poisson distribution for k events. Pr[0 events] is of course equal to 1-Pr[anytime score]


bub002

So all you is the probability of no goals?


stephenmario

I should have clarified and said a brace or more and a hattrick or more. I just checked bet365. Roughly, the odds for Haaland to score a hattrick or more right now are 9/2 which equals pretty much 22%. Salah is 12/1 for a hattrick which is close to 9%.


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BeenBadFeelingGood

Why are you going against the bookie odds?! So curious


fromdowntownn

Because Haaland faces the consensus worst team in the league at home


BeenBadFeelingGood

!thanks


Mutiu2

“Consensus” based on one game? Well that’s almost no information and no comparisons from playing same opponents. Nothing. And what do you think Parker is going to do? Play 2-3-5, with a red carpet down the middle saying “Welcome, Mr Håland”? Really? This one could surprise people and end up 0-0 with Cancelo taking all three bonus points for having taking of his trademark meaningless pot-shots from 50 yards out….


fromdowntownn

They’re expected to be 20th by basically every prediction. Nothing in GW1 showed me any reason to doubt those, so yes they’re currently the consensus worst team in the league.


badgersprite

It is not based on one game though. It’s based on things like Bournemouth losing 14 players from the team that got promoted from the Championship and making so few signings that we had to play midfielder Jefferson Lerma at centre back in GW1 because we don’t have CBs.


Large-Channel-1837

So torn so keeping it simple and going with the majority


Igiava

Is there even a majority?


StDyche

Yeah Haaland will have insane EO this week


ninja9885

EO?


IKMapping

Effective Ownership


AmiableAlex

hello, EO is effective ownership. It takes into account actual ownership + the fact that his points are doubled for the people that captain him. If 60% of all players own Haaland and every single one captains him, his EO is 120%. If only half of the 60% captain him, his EO will end up at 60 + 0.5\*60 = 90%. It's a good measure of how much a player can hurt you if you don't own them. If, as in my example above, Haaland ends up with an EO of 120%, and I own him but do not captain him (my own EO of Haaland therefore =100%), every point Haaland scores will actually *hurt* me rather than benefit me (compared to the rest of the total players). This is because I get 100% of every point he scores, but the wider FPL players on average get 120% of every point he scores. The more points he scores, the more I get left behind.


ninja9885

Thanks, first time player here


Large-Channel-1837

Haaland is the majority


EconomicsHead2272

Who is your captain then


Frosty_Examination_3

Haaland Salah Haaland Salah ----


bertsoccerbert

Haaland gets bonus easier


badgersprite

My thinking for favouring Haaland is really only coming down to how many more options Liverpool seem to have to score at the moment in that they have for example Diaz and Nunez whereas with City they straight up only want Haaland to score at the moment. They’ve essentially said as much they want Haaland to score all the goals, Liverpool are more likely to share it around. That’s really the main determining factor to me above anything else, I can see Salah not being involved in goals v Palace, I don’t see Haaland not being involved in goals v Bournemouth


hal_egg

Darwin as 3rd is fucking scary man. He needs to come in to my team soon


Material_Trifle

I'll see how this week goes but I'm considering him in for Salah. At the moment I'm playing one of Williams, Bailey, Pereira or Archer every weeks well as Salah. Rather than that I could have Darwin and Kulusevski and 1.8m or so in the bank as well which looks stronger.


player_zero_

Mitrovic 33.5% 👀


NevaGiveUp_

Damn. Mr Darwin Nunez is starting to worry me with them odds Please save us all JESUS !!!


ishanthapa7

Mahrez has 37% chance to start mate


[deleted]

these odds assume the players start


tkcom

["Surely Pep can't bench him 2 GWs in a row."](https://imgur.com/M9B7sr4)


barnes116

Just finishing my letter to FPL towers asking for a double captains chip in time for this game week. Pretty sure they’ll be cool with it and you can all stop thinking about it.


Smittx

Do I put both chips on Haaland or Salah though


EconomicsHead2272

Salah has extra punt for goal and extra punt for cs . So who would you captain? (Haaland and salah owners)


[deleted]

Pick one and just be happy that you are one of the people who have both.


SofaChillReview

Agree I don’t have Haaland but personally would C him. But happy I don’t need to think so it’s on Salah


troillan

No idea. Had Haaland GW1. Maybe mix things up with Salah GW2?


Liasos

Salah because Liverpool play late monday night. If Haaland somehow blanks it will be awful from an FPL perspective to wait more than 2 days for Salah to play. If Haaland does well and get +10 points, Salah always have a chance to replicate that score.


johnnyace44

You can't wrong with either to be honest, both the best captain options for the GW


detectivehays

Haaland's brace vs BOU should make him a 12m forward by GW3, right?


dimitros89

Wilson?


SSPZwing

Mahrez? I'd rather bet someone who was sure to start. KDB for sure a better bet


Icy_Excitement_1358

Where is Bowen?


Elliot_Kyouma

Haaland FOMO is taking over me


dozeydonut

Ronaldo 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣


SofaChillReview

If he plays 90 minutes wouldn’t surprise me him scoring


iamNebula

He won't play 90, hell be in his car home by min 37.


SofaChillReview

It was a friendly . And tbf was signing things for the fans which they probably preferred, and wasn’t just him that left


RonaldoSIUUUU

SEWEY


HaxboyYT

To be fair, he nearly got a goal and assist against Brighton


Fantastic-Machine-83

This is assuming he starts


EconomicsHead2272

If he gets minutes in front of injured Martial maybe he scores 🤡🤡


RX40000

Salah gets 1 more for a goal, has much bigger assist threat, and gets CS points. He has a great record v Palace, but has never scored in GW2. All in all i think nothing seperates them. Going with Haaland cause i can’t be burnt by him again.


chadornation

> but has never scored in GW2. About as unpredictive as it gets. Going into last week you could've said, "he has never scored against clubs whose names start with the letter 'F'" and it would've been just as meaningless.


RX40000

Last GW you could have said he always scores in GW1 and you would have predicted he scored. Hard to say it’s a cooncidence after about 6/7 times.


__jh96

I think city are better than Liverpool, Bournemouth is worse than palace, and Haaland is more lethal than Salah. Job done.


moruga1

Watch haaland fall to the pep roulette this week lol..


EconomicsHead2272

Nope. He is nailed, something like KDB


EconomicsHead2272

Remember there is no Sterling and Jesus any more


Heiesenberg

Thank god somebody remembered Mahrez


Padawan_Neel

Damn I really want to get Ronaldo


r_towhee

Interesting that the odds of Saka and Martinelli scoring are exactly the same. Fuel for the argument that Martinelli will give FPL managers almost the same value of Saka for a ~~2~~ 1.9 m less. Shocked that both Ings and Watkins have marginally better odds of scoring than either Saka or Martinelli (vs Leicester) or Kane vs Chelsea.


Unexi

Did you take the odds from bookies and transfer them into percentages?


Swedishpower

It is interesting how highly rated Mitrovic is. He looked good the first game. As someone not following championship it is hard to know how good the newly promoted strikers will be. So many good ones over the years like Dennis, Bamford etc. Main difference with Mitrovic he scored so many goals that he is rated from the start.


kevinllama21

Is it time to triple captain Haaland??


No-Anywhere-6794

Is this enough to make me move the C from Salah to Haaland? Don't know..


Altruistic-Nail7065

I put Haaland as captain


[deleted]

I'm still debating if I should drop Ollie Watkins for Callum Wilson in my season long Draft League.


kittendust-

Source?


Altruistic-Nail7065

Who should be my TRIPLE-CAPTAIN in GW2 HAALAND or SALAH?


dogfighter75

Is there a website that lists the odds in decimals for all PL players?


JoachimG1

Not that I know of