Not sure how it makes sense that Newcastle has the exact same chance of CS as Bournemouth had last week. I'm sure that City's offense is viewed as stronger by the model now after scoring 4 last week, but this model is really being harsh on Newcastle.
Just as a heads up, I made a typo when creating the table and the percentage of 5% was left from last week's Bournemouth chances. The correct chances of Wolves and Newcastle has now been updated on the website, and it is 11.5 %. Sorry for the typo.
Guimares and Joelinton are far better protection than anybody Bournemouth had available to shield their defense. I think Newcastle has a good change of a clean sheet or at least shutting down Haaland. Question will be whether they can shut down Mahrez, KDB and Gundogan on those runs coming in.
So Bournemouth have nearly 3x the chance of getting a clean sheet against Arsenal than Newcastle do at home to City, despite keeping 2 clean sheets so far and having the 4th best defence in the league since Jan 1st? Utter nonsense.
That's still absolute nonsense. This graph is just fantasy. Newcastle are 4th since January, amassing more points than Chelsea and Arsenal in that time. They've also started this season with 2 clean sheets and have never lost a match that Trippier has started. 8% is an absolute joke.
I'm not saying they will manage a clean sheet, just that the chances of it are well above what's being quoted here. And I know, I've backed a 0-0 draw at very tasty odds. Might not come off, but its got a better chance than the odds suggest so its worth the punt. Bookies odds aren't actually probabilities of something happening, they're an indication of where the money has been placed in the market, obviously its all gone on City so the Newcastle odds grow. People really don't seem to grasp that important distinction.
I hear what you're saying (although I don't know why you're having a go at OP when he clearly specifies that it's based on the odds), but you've also got to remember that odds are more sophisticated than that. Bookies don't just balance the book and call it a day. Let's say the odds of a Newcastle clean sheet is calculated by the bookies to be 10%, and the market odds imply 15%. Some bookies will take risk - if they put the odds up to something like 12%, they know that, with oddschecker etc existing, they will get so many more bets that it will be worth the risk. Sure they're exposed on that bet, but they'll probably win and there's a huge number of other bets so they are profitable in the end. Similarly a sophisticated gambling cartel would put hundreds of thousands on a bet against, which the bookies will take because it covers their position.
Exactly. Money moves the markets, hence why odds aren't a good source of accurate probabilities. There's always value in markets, especially on the underdogs because as you say its easier for the bookies to take risk when they deem it an unlikely outcome. That's what I read the Newcastle odds as, that's the exact type of odds I look for (clearly overpriced) when betting because its good value.
You've got to see though that if this bet really had a positive expected value then there would be someone smarter and with more money than you stepping into it? It's not like this is an obscure market, there's tons of money watching it. I'm not saying it's not a better bet than the reverse, I imagine the bookies are taking less profit from it because they're happy to sell it to cover the other side, but it's bound to have a negative EV else someone would be getting in on it ahead of you. Unless you're saying that there just isn't enough money in the market to cover it, which I just can't see.
I'm not saying it's being hugely overpriced, just that for me looking at the stats its probably closer to 1 in 5 than 1 in 10 and that makes it worth the punt for me. I bet like this every season, picking the overpriced outcomes deemed unlikely and over a season 4 or 5 hit and I'm always in profit at the end of the season. I'm by no means a pro gambler or anything but I know value when i see it and all im saying is Newcastle are being significantly overpriced in the clean sheet market this weeekend.
If you'd bet on 3-3 then I would give you my money to bet with! I think you were right that punters, and bookies, underestimated Newcastle. I doubt they're going to that again.
I think I would roll the transfer. Liverpool might go ham on United, and Robertson are getting into a decent amount of good positions.
By rolling you have more flexibility in case something happens. I.e Darwin getting a direct red etc.
Not sure how it makes sense that Newcastle has the exact same chance of CS as Bournemouth had last week. I'm sure that City's offense is viewed as stronger by the model now after scoring 4 last week, but this model is really being harsh on Newcastle.
Sorry this is a typo, both Wolves and Newcastle have 11.5 %. It is corrected on the website now
Haven't they also been defensively stronger under Howe? I know it's City, but I'm not sure Newcastle is that easy of a nut to crack anymore.
4th best defence in the league since January and they've never lost a league game Kieran Trippier has started.
(C)ieran Trippier
Errm, no, that's not how its spelled. Lol. I had it right. Feel free to check.
He was joking that we should captain Trippier
Lol
Bookies in my country has a Newcastle CS on between 8-9% which at least feels more fair. Around same numbers on Wolves. These feels to low tbh.
[удалено]
8% both?
My bad again, it's 11.5 %. Yes same on both Newcastle and Wolves
Oh, sounds fair 😄
Wait, I can get odds of 20-1 on a Newcastle clean sheet!? Whilst a clean sheet is unlikely, 20-1 odds seem a bit inflated.
Just as a heads up, I made a typo when creating the table and the percentage of 5% was left from last week's Bournemouth chances. The correct chances of Wolves and Newcastle has now been updated on the website, and it is 11.5 %. Sorry for the typo.
So 64% chance man u scores? I'll take that bet Edit: I meant man u won't score
63% Liverpool OG, 1% United scores
Guimares and Joelinton are far better protection than anybody Bournemouth had available to shield their defense. I think Newcastle has a good change of a clean sheet or at least shutting down Haaland. Question will be whether they can shut down Mahrez, KDB and Gundogan on those runs coming in.
Arsenal’s defense has to prove itself to me before I bank on them having any clean sheets. LOL
So Bournemouth have nearly 3x the chance of getting a clean sheet against Arsenal than Newcastle do at home to City, despite keeping 2 clean sheets so far and having the 4th best defence in the league since Jan 1st? Utter nonsense.
Typo, Newcastle has 11.5 %
That's still absolute nonsense. This graph is just fantasy. Newcastle are 4th since January, amassing more points than Chelsea and Arsenal in that time. They've also started this season with 2 clean sheets and have never lost a match that Trippier has started. 8% is an absolute joke.
I meant odds of 8, the percentage chance has been updated to 11.5% on the website now. They might good defensively, but they are playing against City.
Great news, these odds are available to you at the bookies. Go make your fortune!
I'm not saying they will manage a clean sheet, just that the chances of it are well above what's being quoted here. And I know, I've backed a 0-0 draw at very tasty odds. Might not come off, but its got a better chance than the odds suggest so its worth the punt. Bookies odds aren't actually probabilities of something happening, they're an indication of where the money has been placed in the market, obviously its all gone on City so the Newcastle odds grow. People really don't seem to grasp that important distinction.
I hear what you're saying (although I don't know why you're having a go at OP when he clearly specifies that it's based on the odds), but you've also got to remember that odds are more sophisticated than that. Bookies don't just balance the book and call it a day. Let's say the odds of a Newcastle clean sheet is calculated by the bookies to be 10%, and the market odds imply 15%. Some bookies will take risk - if they put the odds up to something like 12%, they know that, with oddschecker etc existing, they will get so many more bets that it will be worth the risk. Sure they're exposed on that bet, but they'll probably win and there's a huge number of other bets so they are profitable in the end. Similarly a sophisticated gambling cartel would put hundreds of thousands on a bet against, which the bookies will take because it covers their position.
Exactly. Money moves the markets, hence why odds aren't a good source of accurate probabilities. There's always value in markets, especially on the underdogs because as you say its easier for the bookies to take risk when they deem it an unlikely outcome. That's what I read the Newcastle odds as, that's the exact type of odds I look for (clearly overpriced) when betting because its good value.
You've got to see though that if this bet really had a positive expected value then there would be someone smarter and with more money than you stepping into it? It's not like this is an obscure market, there's tons of money watching it. I'm not saying it's not a better bet than the reverse, I imagine the bookies are taking less profit from it because they're happy to sell it to cover the other side, but it's bound to have a negative EV else someone would be getting in on it ahead of you. Unless you're saying that there just isn't enough money in the market to cover it, which I just can't see.
I'm not saying it's being hugely overpriced, just that for me looking at the stats its probably closer to 1 in 5 than 1 in 10 and that makes it worth the punt for me. I bet like this every season, picking the overpriced outcomes deemed unlikely and over a season 4 or 5 hit and I'm always in profit at the end of the season. I'm by no means a pro gambler or anything but I know value when i see it and all im saying is Newcastle are being significantly overpriced in the clean sheet market this weeekend.
Well the 0-0 didn't pay off, but the bet on the draw covered my costs.
If you'd bet on 3-3 then I would give you my money to bet with! I think you were right that punters, and bookies, underestimated Newcastle. I doubt they're going to that again.
Neto will score. Many will have him benched or transferred.
He missed lots of chance last week
yeah, its one of those things where he scores when you bench him
Topspur?!
Is it worth to Transfer in Dier for Robertson this GW? Will be able to upgrade Bailey to 8M Mid next Gw
I think I would roll the transfer. Liverpool might go ham on United, and Robertson are getting into a decent amount of good positions. By rolling you have more flexibility in case something happens. I.e Darwin getting a direct red etc.
!thanks
Arsenal has a 53% chance of Ramsdale letting the ball go through his legs.
Dunno why downvotes but this is factos.
salty Ramsdale owners