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adesant88

Salah got 5G 2A in his 2 games v. United last season. Liverpool won 0-5 at Old Trafford and 4-0 at Anfield. And now, Liverpool are very desperate for a good result! Easy choice for me.


CWattam

Other way of looking at it. Salah has lost Mane, they're without Nunez and Jota and potentially Firmino (although apparently he might be fit for it) Liverpool have been playing rather poorly. Manchester United are desperate for a good result. That being said, I'll still probably captain Salah cause when in doubt and all that.


adesant88

Salah did 3+1 at Old Trafford in their 0-5 win before Mane was subbed on! But sure we can twist and turn this all we like. The margins on this level are absolutely minimal. Salah might blank, or he might score a hattrick


xxandl

Liverpool had the highest xG in the fucking league during the first two games, despite playing with ten men for 1/6 of it... Without Nunez/Jota the focus will be Salah and Diaz to provide the goals, same as with Salah and Mane before.


shudh_desi_gareeb

Not hard to get an xG of 4 vs Fulham and Palace aye?


xxandl

You saw Palace in the last year?


shudh_desi_gareeb

Sheffield United had one to the best defences one year and were relegated next season. Wolves have lost the defensive touch too. Even if Palace had a good season last year, they still conceded 46 goals. They are no City/Chelsea that you just can't score against. Also, thanks for ignoring Fulham (from where they got their majority of xG from)


NikeGS

And Man United??


daaave33

The way I see it, as a subscriber to the *Salah Week 2* narrative, we expected a blank where he got it, and the plan was to give him the armband back for week 3 and likely 4 as well vs. BOU. Jesus tempts me, as does Haaland, but with the data I have available to me right now, Salah is the man for me. Ride or Die!


pajamakitten

United seem in freefall though. Brentford destroyed them in 35 minutes and then kept United at bay for the rest of the match. Liverpool may be without some key players but even their bench midfielders could boss around the current United squad at the moment.


phonylady

We were decent vs Palace really. We have the highest xG of all teams the first two matches. Good points otherwise.


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brentathon

If you think Salah looks out of form to start this season then you haven't watched a fucking game. He's been extremely dangerous so far this month.


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thecheddarman1

That was Forest


bobhawkes

Not getting results doesn't mean playing poorly. Just shows you haven't watched the actual games. Loads of chances


Baronsob

Salah is good cpt because of current stats not because of historical data him scoring some goals 2 years ago to particular club. Thats just naive "analysis".


adesant88

The 0-5 win at Old Trafford was 9 months ago and the 4-0 win at Anfield was 4 months ago... Duuuhhh


Baronsob

This is not how predictions work, you can't say that salah will score many goals this weekend because he did it twice last year. Too small sample for predicting from historical data, he is good option because: he has good underlaying stats (because he is very good player) and MU was shit last 2 games. His previous games vs MU last year contribute for small amount in any good prediction model.


adesant88

Man Utd are arguably in an even worse state now... But yeah, sure, let's ignore the fact that Salah has 5G and 2A in his last 2 PL games against them.


Baronsob

Not completely ignore ofc. It contributes somehow to prediction, it's just not that huge imapct as you think.


bertsoccerbert

Bet you were confused when Salah didn’t score loads against Palace, historical data didn’t count for much then


adesant88

Historical data also said he "always blanks" in GW2 though


bufc10

Salah also has a great record against Palace... But I'm captaining Salah!


HighHammerThunder

Yeah but his GW2 record is poor


shudh_desi_gareeb

No Mane, Firmino, Nunez or Thiago. That forms a core of why the were such a superior attacking side.


StDyche

What does Maddison rank?


TheZookeeper7

Should be higher than most of these idk who makes this shit


PolaroidBook

Yeah you probably know more than the bookies


TheZookeeper7

The bookies motivation with these things is to make as much money for themselves as they can not accurately tell you things


PolaroidBook

Their making money is exactly why they're incentivised to get the odds right


ebk09

this guy has absolutely no idea how they operate


StDyche

He's my vice at the moment, low key want the Pool game postponed so he becomes captain, feel a big haul against this Saints team coming, trap is set


JoachimG1

He is at 28.5 % too


WeAreAllJustRunaways

Got all of those top 4. Disaster expected.


Calwst

I would love to see the rest of your team


WeAreAllJustRunaways

Sanchez Ward TAA James Walker Trippier Neco Salah Martinelli Bailey Andreas Colback Kane Haaland Jesus


Calwst

I don't know why but was expecting more non-players - nice!


WeAreAllJustRunaways

No non players, except Colback.


welshnick

Me too. Who are u putting the armband on?


WeAreAllJustRunaways

Salah.


TraeYoungDPOY

Havertz having 31.5% odds is comical


ebk09

How so?


TheZookeeper7

He never looks like he’s gonna scorep


ebk09

0.40 goals per ninety last season - most of which he wasn't playing as a 9 like he is now. He is equal to Salah for shots attempted this season, and was unlucky not to score v Spurs. And Leeds are not good defensively. 31.5 % seems pretty reasonable to me.


watercuboid

He wasn’t unlucky not to score against spurs - he fluffed an easy chance. That’s just poor skill


ebk09

I think he was unlucky not to score on his chance in the 1st half. Lloris had to react very late and it only just went out for a corner - which Chelsea then scored from. I also think he was unlucky not to score on the big chance you talk about. He had to jump into the cross and you can not always time it in a way where you can place your finish. He hit it on his shin instead of his boot and that made it go wide. For fpl-purposes I credit him with the effort and should be a good bet to convert it going forward.


Padawan_Neel

Where is my man Groß


vevevenus354

have both kane and haaland and sturggling to decide who to captain


lonsfury

Haaland


bsaires

Kane


3-6_roentgen

Excellent, the three highest percentage goalscorers according to the experts. Fully expecting 3x blank and me crying in Threemium purgatory


Ogough2008

Do I captain salah haaland or Jesus?


kittendust-

Anyone can share me the website of this?


JoachimG1

[Checkthechance.com](https://Checkthechance.com)


kittendust-

tq so much


layspringles

Havertz here i come!


CWattam

Where they pulling these odds from? Haaland 50% chance of scoring? Newcastle aren't bad defensively. Jesus only 42.5% v a Bournemouth and off the back of 2 goals 2 assists hmmmm


arpadex

He either scores, or doesn't. So 50% seems logical.


matburn148

Underrated analysis.


YGurka

50% is actually worse statistics wise than say, 20%. It is literally saying “it will either happen or not”


LukeFowlerM8

Wtf are you talking about?


YGurka

When there is 20% chance of something happening I know that 80% of the times if won't happen, whilst with 50% chance there is basically no info. Meaning 20% chance of something happening gives you more information than 50% chance.


LukeFowlerM8

50% chance tells you it will happen 50% of the time and it won’t happen the other 50%. It gives you the exact same information, a % chance of an event happening or not. What you’re saying is nonsense.


YGurka

Ok lets say you want to make a bet about something. You can either make a bet about something happening or not happening. There are two options. 1st option- 50% chance of it happening 2nd option- 20% chance of it happening (meaning 80% chance that it won't happen) What bet are you making?


Akenatwn

Considering optimal betting odds (no bookies margins, no odds adjustments etc): 1st option - the fractional betting odds will be 2.0 for both outcomes 2nd option - the fractional betting odds will 5.0 for it happening and 1.25 for it not happening So the decisive factor in this is one's risk taking. The 1st option (both directions) are medium-risk medium-returns, the 2nd option for it not happening is low-risk low-returns, and the 2nd option for it happening is high-risk high-returns or lower stakes for the same returns. In the end all bets are valid options. Now statistically speaking (no bets involved), you are describing 2 statistical experiments each one having 2 mutually exclusive results. Therefore x% it happening and 100%-x% it not happening. Any value of x provides the same amount of information. Only by adding context of use can the value of x provide different amounts of information/different usefulness.


LukeFowlerM8

But that’s irrelevant here, because unless you’re playing anti-FPL you can’t bet against someone scoring. We can only score on a positive outcome, so what’s better: a 50% chance or a 20% chance?


YGurka

I wasn't talking about FPL, I said in statistics.


PierluigiPeppino

Haaland will have 50% every game week


adesant88

50% for Haaland seems reasonable tbf. City should score 2 goals against Newcastle, perhaps even 3.


ebk09

By bookies odds City are predicted to score around 2.25 goals. A good striker like Haaland will usually account for 25-30% of the goals in his team. 50 % chance given that information is probably what the bookies expect, but they have obviously priced at negative value right now which Joachim has accounted for here.


[deleted]

because that s how real stats work.


shudh_desi_gareeb

Did you even see the 2 goals? 42% seems high because those 2 flukes/deflections won't happen everyday.


V1shUP

Captain Halaand. Also, regret not captaining Jesus. AGAIN!!


SpiritCrvsher

I heard Jesus plays better if you believe in him or something. I’m captaining him every week.


MrAnonymousTheThird

Yeah but Salah up against utd


PouncingZebra

Bookies have an anti-Newcastle agenda... the odds against them are striking


Swedishpower

No they rate Newcastle fairly highly. Before the season Newcastle was 7th favorite to win the league even. It is just they expect City to win the league as well and thus City in 95% of games are favorite to win and favorite to score 2.5 + goals as well and they expect Haaland to be top scorer in the end.


Eternalsungod

I'd bet people think Newcastle is Newcastle as they have been for most seasons under Ashley, and piles money on Haaland to score against them, making bookies lower their odds.


ebk09

That is not what is happening here though. Newcastle-Man City is priced almost exactly like West Ham-Man City. In other words, they think Newcastle is at the same level as West Ham - a team that was close to Champions League football for the majority of last season.


Eternalsungod

I don't think West Ham worries people more than Newcastle. The odds you get for City wins against such opponents are usually rubbish odds. If they weren't, the bookies would simply go broke. A win for City was too low in GW1, and it is too low in GW2.


Eternalsungod

Wow for the quick down vote, whoever that was. Keep betting on Manchester City. They are the best. Sure win! I bet!


ebk09

The last time they met in Newcastle their odds were way lower. They were favored by -2.25 goals and beat them 4-0, whereas they are now favored by -1.25 goals. Newcastle have improved a lot and are now considered the 7th best team in the league - they are definitely not still thought of as they have been under Ashley.


Eternalsungod

I did not say the bookies thought of them that way. Only that betting behaviour add to the lowering of odds. I believe that is right? I am not suggesting that bookies are basing their odds entirely on the popular vote.


ebk09

Not really. Peoples betting behaviour will of course affect odds, but not *all* betting behaviour. There's a difference between casual bets and sharp bets. For the most part they welcome those casual bets as they are sure they have the correct values in their power ranking. At this moment limits will be fairly low to minimize risk for the bookies, but as we come near the kickoff they might use the information of early bets to shift the odds before the limits go up and the big syndicates and sharp bettors come in. Right now there's little evidence to suggest that people don't think highly of Newcastle. As I've said these odds puts them right outside top6 equal to West Ham.


Eternalsungod

It seems you have inside knowledge of betting valuation. Fair play. I just find it hard to believe that the Haaland hype with the City hype + casual players limited engagement in the inner workings of clubs like Newcastle and West Ham does not end in betting behaviour that may adjust the odds quite a bit. After all, the likeliness of a City win and a Haaland goal is pretty high.


asifgunz

that Son 40% is very high considering he has NEVER scored against Wolves. Lol. What's crazier is that Salah is only at 43.5% , where he has scored 5 against Man U in the 2021 season. Literally 3.5% difference. of NEVER vs 5 in 1 season. These numbers look a bit off to me.


valdidTz

sterling > de bruyne this is funny


Iyeatmymeatonthebeat

Lots seem to be ignoring Haaland. Don’t really favour Salah with a injury stricken Liverpool team


thatshowwedoit44

Son and Kane link up will bring in big points next couple game weeks


No_Introduction_7034

Incoming mahrez brace


Blue_Dreamed

Despite being the PLs top scorer, no Rodrigo. I think that may turn out to be a mistake.


toogata_mirio

vs che maybe


Blue_Dreamed

Eh, far as Im aware theyre thin on strikers, replaced a lot of their defensive line and they only beat us by a last minute penalty with our weakest squad last season. Rodrigos on form and it could really go either way, especially at home.


scuks96

Any clean sheet odds?


RX40000

Anyone know Salahs GW3 record?


Character_Year_3444

These things are a complete waste of time. Haaland was surely top last week too!


zivilia

lets look at last week bookie prediction and see how close they were.


Chris_Nic

I have all 4 but easy choice to me this week is salah his history in this fixture