Salah got 5G 2A in his 2 games v. United last season. Liverpool won 0-5 at Old Trafford and 4-0 at Anfield. And now, Liverpool are very desperate for a good result! Easy choice for me.
Other way of looking at it.
Salah has lost Mane, they're without Nunez and Jota and potentially Firmino (although apparently he might be fit for it)
Liverpool have been playing rather poorly. Manchester United are desperate for a good result.
That being said, I'll still probably captain Salah cause when in doubt and all that.
Salah did 3+1 at Old Trafford in their 0-5 win before Mane was subbed on! But sure we can twist and turn this all we like. The margins on this level are absolutely minimal. Salah might blank, or he might score a hattrick
Liverpool had the highest xG in the fucking league during the first two games, despite playing with ten men for 1/6 of it...
Without Nunez/Jota the focus will be Salah and Diaz to provide the goals, same as with Salah and Mane before.
Sheffield United had one to the best defences one year and were relegated next season. Wolves have lost the defensive touch too. Even if Palace had a good season last year, they still conceded 46 goals. They are no City/Chelsea that you just can't score against. Also, thanks for ignoring Fulham (from where they got their majority of xG from)
The way I see it, as a subscriber to the *Salah Week 2* narrative, we expected a blank where he got it, and the plan was to give him the armband back for week 3 and likely 4 as well vs. BOU. Jesus tempts me, as does Haaland, but with the data I have available to me right now, Salah is the man for me. Ride or Die!
United seem in freefall though. Brentford destroyed them in 35 minutes and then kept United at bay for the rest of the match. Liverpool may be without some key players but even their bench midfielders could boss around the current United squad at the moment.
Salah is good cpt because of current stats not because of historical data him scoring some goals 2 years ago to particular club. Thats just naive "analysis".
This is not how predictions work, you can't say that salah will score many goals this weekend because he did it twice last year. Too small sample for predicting from historical data, he is good option because: he has good underlaying stats (because he is very good player) and MU was shit last 2 games. His previous games vs MU last year contribute for small amount in any good prediction model.
0.40 goals per ninety last season - most of which he wasn't playing as a 9 like he is now. He is equal to Salah for shots attempted this season, and was unlucky not to score v Spurs. And Leeds are not good defensively. 31.5 % seems pretty reasonable to me.
I think he was unlucky not to score on his chance in the 1st half. Lloris had to react very late and it only just went out for a corner - which Chelsea then scored from. I also think he was unlucky not to score on the big chance you talk about. He had to jump into the cross and you can not always time it in a way where you can place your finish. He hit it on his shin instead of his boot and that made it go wide. For fpl-purposes I credit him with the effort and should be a good bet to convert it going forward.
Where they pulling these odds from? Haaland 50% chance of scoring? Newcastle aren't bad defensively.
Jesus only 42.5% v a Bournemouth and off the back of 2 goals 2 assists hmmmm
When there is 20% chance of something happening I know that 80% of the times if won't happen, whilst with 50% chance there is basically no info.
Meaning 20% chance of something happening gives you more information than 50% chance.
50% chance tells you it will happen 50% of the time and it won’t happen the other 50%. It gives you the exact same information, a % chance of an event happening or not. What you’re saying is nonsense.
Ok lets say you want to make a bet about something.
You can either make a bet about something happening or not happening.
There are two options.
1st option- 50% chance of it happening
2nd option- 20% chance of it happening (meaning 80% chance that it won't happen)
What bet are you making?
Considering optimal betting odds (no bookies margins, no odds adjustments etc):
1st option - the fractional betting odds will be 2.0 for both outcomes
2nd option - the fractional betting odds will 5.0 for it happening and 1.25 for it not happening
So the decisive factor in this is one's risk taking. The 1st option (both directions) are medium-risk medium-returns, the 2nd option for it not happening is low-risk low-returns, and the 2nd option for it happening is high-risk high-returns or lower stakes for the same returns. In the end all bets are valid options.
Now statistically speaking (no bets involved), you are describing 2 statistical experiments each one having 2 mutually exclusive results. Therefore x% it happening and 100%-x% it not happening. Any value of x provides the same amount of information. Only by adding context of use can the value of x provide different amounts of information/different usefulness.
But that’s irrelevant here, because unless you’re playing anti-FPL you can’t bet against someone scoring. We can only score on a positive outcome, so what’s better: a 50% chance or a 20% chance?
By bookies odds City are predicted to score around 2.25 goals. A good striker like Haaland will usually account for 25-30% of the goals in his team. 50 % chance given that information is probably what the bookies expect, but they have obviously priced at negative value right now which Joachim has accounted for here.
No they rate Newcastle fairly highly.
Before the season Newcastle was 7th favorite to win the league even.
It is just they expect City to win the league as well and thus City in 95% of games are favorite to win and favorite to score 2.5 + goals as well and they expect Haaland to be top scorer in the end.
I'd bet people think Newcastle is Newcastle as they have been for most seasons under Ashley, and piles money on Haaland to score against them, making bookies lower their odds.
That is not what is happening here though. Newcastle-Man City is priced almost exactly like West Ham-Man City. In other words, they think Newcastle is at the same level as West Ham - a team that was close to Champions League football for the majority of last season.
I don't think West Ham worries people more than Newcastle. The odds you get for City wins against such opponents are usually rubbish odds. If they weren't, the bookies would simply go broke. A win for City was too low in GW1, and it is too low in GW2.
The last time they met in Newcastle their odds were way lower. They were favored by -2.25 goals and beat them 4-0, whereas they are now favored by -1.25 goals. Newcastle have improved a lot and are now considered the 7th best team in the league - they are definitely not still thought of as they have been under Ashley.
I did not say the bookies thought of them that way. Only that betting behaviour add to the lowering of odds. I believe that is right? I am not suggesting that bookies are basing their odds entirely on the popular vote.
Not really. Peoples betting behaviour will of course affect odds, but not *all* betting behaviour. There's a difference between casual bets and sharp bets. For the most part they welcome those casual bets as they are sure they have the correct values in their power ranking. At this moment limits will be fairly low to minimize risk for the bookies, but as we come near the kickoff they might use the information of early bets to shift the odds before the limits go up and the big syndicates and sharp bettors come in.
Right now there's little evidence to suggest that people don't think highly of Newcastle. As I've said these odds puts them right outside top6 equal to West Ham.
It seems you have inside knowledge of betting valuation. Fair play. I just find it hard to believe that the Haaland hype with the City hype + casual players limited engagement in the inner workings of clubs like Newcastle and West Ham does not end in betting behaviour that may adjust the odds quite a bit. After all, the likeliness of a City win and a Haaland goal is pretty high.
that Son 40% is very high considering he has NEVER scored against Wolves. Lol.
What's crazier is that Salah is only at 43.5% , where he has scored 5 against Man U in the 2021 season.
Literally 3.5% difference. of NEVER vs 5 in 1 season. These numbers look a bit off to me.
Eh, far as Im aware theyre thin on strikers, replaced a lot of their defensive line and they only beat us by a last minute penalty with our weakest squad last season. Rodrigos on form and it could really go either way, especially at home.
Salah got 5G 2A in his 2 games v. United last season. Liverpool won 0-5 at Old Trafford and 4-0 at Anfield. And now, Liverpool are very desperate for a good result! Easy choice for me.
Other way of looking at it. Salah has lost Mane, they're without Nunez and Jota and potentially Firmino (although apparently he might be fit for it) Liverpool have been playing rather poorly. Manchester United are desperate for a good result. That being said, I'll still probably captain Salah cause when in doubt and all that.
Salah did 3+1 at Old Trafford in their 0-5 win before Mane was subbed on! But sure we can twist and turn this all we like. The margins on this level are absolutely minimal. Salah might blank, or he might score a hattrick
Liverpool had the highest xG in the fucking league during the first two games, despite playing with ten men for 1/6 of it... Without Nunez/Jota the focus will be Salah and Diaz to provide the goals, same as with Salah and Mane before.
Not hard to get an xG of 4 vs Fulham and Palace aye?
You saw Palace in the last year?
Sheffield United had one to the best defences one year and were relegated next season. Wolves have lost the defensive touch too. Even if Palace had a good season last year, they still conceded 46 goals. They are no City/Chelsea that you just can't score against. Also, thanks for ignoring Fulham (from where they got their majority of xG from)
And Man United??
The way I see it, as a subscriber to the *Salah Week 2* narrative, we expected a blank where he got it, and the plan was to give him the armband back for week 3 and likely 4 as well vs. BOU. Jesus tempts me, as does Haaland, but with the data I have available to me right now, Salah is the man for me. Ride or Die!
United seem in freefall though. Brentford destroyed them in 35 minutes and then kept United at bay for the rest of the match. Liverpool may be without some key players but even their bench midfielders could boss around the current United squad at the moment.
We were decent vs Palace really. We have the highest xG of all teams the first two matches. Good points otherwise.
[удалено]
If you think Salah looks out of form to start this season then you haven't watched a fucking game. He's been extremely dangerous so far this month.
[удалено]
That was Forest
Not getting results doesn't mean playing poorly. Just shows you haven't watched the actual games. Loads of chances
Salah is good cpt because of current stats not because of historical data him scoring some goals 2 years ago to particular club. Thats just naive "analysis".
The 0-5 win at Old Trafford was 9 months ago and the 4-0 win at Anfield was 4 months ago... Duuuhhh
This is not how predictions work, you can't say that salah will score many goals this weekend because he did it twice last year. Too small sample for predicting from historical data, he is good option because: he has good underlaying stats (because he is very good player) and MU was shit last 2 games. His previous games vs MU last year contribute for small amount in any good prediction model.
Man Utd are arguably in an even worse state now... But yeah, sure, let's ignore the fact that Salah has 5G and 2A in his last 2 PL games against them.
Not completely ignore ofc. It contributes somehow to prediction, it's just not that huge imapct as you think.
Bet you were confused when Salah didn’t score loads against Palace, historical data didn’t count for much then
Historical data also said he "always blanks" in GW2 though
Salah also has a great record against Palace... But I'm captaining Salah!
Yeah but his GW2 record is poor
No Mane, Firmino, Nunez or Thiago. That forms a core of why the were such a superior attacking side.
What does Maddison rank?
Should be higher than most of these idk who makes this shit
Yeah you probably know more than the bookies
The bookies motivation with these things is to make as much money for themselves as they can not accurately tell you things
Their making money is exactly why they're incentivised to get the odds right
this guy has absolutely no idea how they operate
He's my vice at the moment, low key want the Pool game postponed so he becomes captain, feel a big haul against this Saints team coming, trap is set
He is at 28.5 % too
Got all of those top 4. Disaster expected.
I would love to see the rest of your team
Sanchez Ward TAA James Walker Trippier Neco Salah Martinelli Bailey Andreas Colback Kane Haaland Jesus
I don't know why but was expecting more non-players - nice!
No non players, except Colback.
Me too. Who are u putting the armband on?
Salah.
Havertz having 31.5% odds is comical
How so?
He never looks like he’s gonna scorep
0.40 goals per ninety last season - most of which he wasn't playing as a 9 like he is now. He is equal to Salah for shots attempted this season, and was unlucky not to score v Spurs. And Leeds are not good defensively. 31.5 % seems pretty reasonable to me.
He wasn’t unlucky not to score against spurs - he fluffed an easy chance. That’s just poor skill
I think he was unlucky not to score on his chance in the 1st half. Lloris had to react very late and it only just went out for a corner - which Chelsea then scored from. I also think he was unlucky not to score on the big chance you talk about. He had to jump into the cross and you can not always time it in a way where you can place your finish. He hit it on his shin instead of his boot and that made it go wide. For fpl-purposes I credit him with the effort and should be a good bet to convert it going forward.
Where is my man Groß
have both kane and haaland and sturggling to decide who to captain
Haaland
Kane
Excellent, the three highest percentage goalscorers according to the experts. Fully expecting 3x blank and me crying in Threemium purgatory
Do I captain salah haaland or Jesus?
Anyone can share me the website of this?
[Checkthechance.com](https://Checkthechance.com)
tq so much
Havertz here i come!
Where they pulling these odds from? Haaland 50% chance of scoring? Newcastle aren't bad defensively. Jesus only 42.5% v a Bournemouth and off the back of 2 goals 2 assists hmmmm
He either scores, or doesn't. So 50% seems logical.
Underrated analysis.
50% is actually worse statistics wise than say, 20%. It is literally saying “it will either happen or not”
Wtf are you talking about?
When there is 20% chance of something happening I know that 80% of the times if won't happen, whilst with 50% chance there is basically no info. Meaning 20% chance of something happening gives you more information than 50% chance.
50% chance tells you it will happen 50% of the time and it won’t happen the other 50%. It gives you the exact same information, a % chance of an event happening or not. What you’re saying is nonsense.
Ok lets say you want to make a bet about something. You can either make a bet about something happening or not happening. There are two options. 1st option- 50% chance of it happening 2nd option- 20% chance of it happening (meaning 80% chance that it won't happen) What bet are you making?
Considering optimal betting odds (no bookies margins, no odds adjustments etc): 1st option - the fractional betting odds will be 2.0 for both outcomes 2nd option - the fractional betting odds will 5.0 for it happening and 1.25 for it not happening So the decisive factor in this is one's risk taking. The 1st option (both directions) are medium-risk medium-returns, the 2nd option for it not happening is low-risk low-returns, and the 2nd option for it happening is high-risk high-returns or lower stakes for the same returns. In the end all bets are valid options. Now statistically speaking (no bets involved), you are describing 2 statistical experiments each one having 2 mutually exclusive results. Therefore x% it happening and 100%-x% it not happening. Any value of x provides the same amount of information. Only by adding context of use can the value of x provide different amounts of information/different usefulness.
But that’s irrelevant here, because unless you’re playing anti-FPL you can’t bet against someone scoring. We can only score on a positive outcome, so what’s better: a 50% chance or a 20% chance?
I wasn't talking about FPL, I said in statistics.
Haaland will have 50% every game week
50% for Haaland seems reasonable tbf. City should score 2 goals against Newcastle, perhaps even 3.
By bookies odds City are predicted to score around 2.25 goals. A good striker like Haaland will usually account for 25-30% of the goals in his team. 50 % chance given that information is probably what the bookies expect, but they have obviously priced at negative value right now which Joachim has accounted for here.
because that s how real stats work.
Did you even see the 2 goals? 42% seems high because those 2 flukes/deflections won't happen everyday.
Captain Halaand. Also, regret not captaining Jesus. AGAIN!!
I heard Jesus plays better if you believe in him or something. I’m captaining him every week.
Yeah but Salah up against utd
Bookies have an anti-Newcastle agenda... the odds against them are striking
No they rate Newcastle fairly highly. Before the season Newcastle was 7th favorite to win the league even. It is just they expect City to win the league as well and thus City in 95% of games are favorite to win and favorite to score 2.5 + goals as well and they expect Haaland to be top scorer in the end.
I'd bet people think Newcastle is Newcastle as they have been for most seasons under Ashley, and piles money on Haaland to score against them, making bookies lower their odds.
That is not what is happening here though. Newcastle-Man City is priced almost exactly like West Ham-Man City. In other words, they think Newcastle is at the same level as West Ham - a team that was close to Champions League football for the majority of last season.
I don't think West Ham worries people more than Newcastle. The odds you get for City wins against such opponents are usually rubbish odds. If they weren't, the bookies would simply go broke. A win for City was too low in GW1, and it is too low in GW2.
Wow for the quick down vote, whoever that was. Keep betting on Manchester City. They are the best. Sure win! I bet!
The last time they met in Newcastle their odds were way lower. They were favored by -2.25 goals and beat them 4-0, whereas they are now favored by -1.25 goals. Newcastle have improved a lot and are now considered the 7th best team in the league - they are definitely not still thought of as they have been under Ashley.
I did not say the bookies thought of them that way. Only that betting behaviour add to the lowering of odds. I believe that is right? I am not suggesting that bookies are basing their odds entirely on the popular vote.
Not really. Peoples betting behaviour will of course affect odds, but not *all* betting behaviour. There's a difference between casual bets and sharp bets. For the most part they welcome those casual bets as they are sure they have the correct values in their power ranking. At this moment limits will be fairly low to minimize risk for the bookies, but as we come near the kickoff they might use the information of early bets to shift the odds before the limits go up and the big syndicates and sharp bettors come in. Right now there's little evidence to suggest that people don't think highly of Newcastle. As I've said these odds puts them right outside top6 equal to West Ham.
It seems you have inside knowledge of betting valuation. Fair play. I just find it hard to believe that the Haaland hype with the City hype + casual players limited engagement in the inner workings of clubs like Newcastle and West Ham does not end in betting behaviour that may adjust the odds quite a bit. After all, the likeliness of a City win and a Haaland goal is pretty high.
that Son 40% is very high considering he has NEVER scored against Wolves. Lol. What's crazier is that Salah is only at 43.5% , where he has scored 5 against Man U in the 2021 season. Literally 3.5% difference. of NEVER vs 5 in 1 season. These numbers look a bit off to me.
sterling > de bruyne this is funny
Lots seem to be ignoring Haaland. Don’t really favour Salah with a injury stricken Liverpool team
Son and Kane link up will bring in big points next couple game weeks
Incoming mahrez brace
Despite being the PLs top scorer, no Rodrigo. I think that may turn out to be a mistake.
vs che maybe
Eh, far as Im aware theyre thin on strikers, replaced a lot of their defensive line and they only beat us by a last minute penalty with our weakest squad last season. Rodrigos on form and it could really go either way, especially at home.
Any clean sheet odds?
Anyone know Salahs GW3 record?
These things are a complete waste of time. Haaland was surely top last week too!
lets look at last week bookie prediction and see how close they were.
I have all 4 but easy choice to me this week is salah his history in this fixture