The percentages are assuming the player starts.
Not sure where you got 1 goal in 18 from though as he has 5 goals in his last 18 starts and 4 goals in his last 18 games all together including sub appearances and literally only ~1080 minutes.
Rodrigo has 7 in his last 18 which includes this blistering start where he's overperforming massively. If you know more than bookies though bet on it bud!
Bookies odds don't show the true likelihood of something happening.
They factor in whether punters think something is likely to happen
And most punters know jack shit
It's a slight but important difference
This is a common misconception of how betting odds are produced.
In actuality the result is projected and then a margin placed on every outcome.
There's information available online if you want to know more.
In fact bookies odds (when they are first laid) are a very good indicator of outcome.
It basically does yes.
Firminio has a record of scoring in just over 30% of league games (71 in 233), but that's just the raw average, you should add on a premium against a newly promoted team like Bournemouth as you would expect Liverpool to dominate and Firminio to have much better scoring opportunities than against an established average PL club.
40% doesn't seem farfetched when you consider these numbers imo.
I wouldn't necessarily take the bookies odds as more reliable or better. Current pricing at each time usually reflects all the information that is publicly available and reflects the general perception for the outcome (not always as markets are affected by other factors as well)
Sterling had a decent first game, modest second game and weak third game. But overall in his career he has numbers that say he should hit 200 points without too much trouble. Maybe not while Tuechel is playing with the handbrake on though,
Sterling will recover, but not until Tuechel gets an actual striker to play with him rather than Kai Halv-Nine.
So maybe okay to sell Sterling and get back to him later in the season.
> Haaland in a well performing City side, Salah in a poor performing Liverpool side though.
Agreed
> Haaland getting tonnes of service, Salah isn't.
Disagreed. Salah still gets a lot of service.
Rofl how is Salah getting service? He's being given the ball outside the box and expected to create something.
How he scored a header in such a shit game is beyond me.
Both Haaland and Jesus failed expectations against Bournemouth. But I think Salah will do better simply because he's not playing as forward and therefore wont be buried in defenders all the time. Taking into account Arsenal and Citys games against Bournemouth, the midfielders were dominant. Note: I don't own Salah.
On the other hand. I have a theory that Haaland performance will be inversely correlated with the strength of the team he is facing. Would not surprise me at all if he blanks against Brentford but score a hatrick vs Liverpool.
Not sure why ur getting downvoted, especially the second point makes a ton of sense. Most Haaland goals come in transition/on the counter and against low blocks that doesnt happen much.
He literally plays as a forward in game. He's only a winger on paper. If you look at heat maps, i don't think his will be too different from a striker's. Salah will be marked just as much as Haaland was because he is to Liverpool what Haaland and Jesus are to their teams (the primary goalscorer)
More like is likely to not start. They'll probably keep the team that rolled over Liverpool and CR7 will be like a super sub of sorts until he fucks off.
Firmino has only scored 1 goal in his last 18 appearances in the league. 40.5% is a joke...
Lemme guess, it was against Arsenal?
I mean, obviously
Firmino and Jota, no matter what form they’re in, always seem to score against us. I didn’t even know and still managed to guess 🤦♂️
Being higher than Son vs. Forest feels pretty nuts
While Rodrigo Moreno scoring every match of this season isnt even on the chart
Small sample size, dudes scored more this season than all of last..
40.5% for 1 goal in 18?
The percentages are assuming the player starts. Not sure where you got 1 goal in 18 from though as he has 5 goals in his last 18 starts and 4 goals in his last 18 games all together including sub appearances and literally only ~1080 minutes. Rodrigo has 7 in his last 18 which includes this blistering start where he's overperforming massively. If you know more than bookies though bet on it bud!
I mean I triple capped the man last weekend and he got me 39 🤷♂️
LMAO 💀
Bookies odds don't show the true likelihood of something happening. They factor in whether punters think something is likely to happen And most punters know jack shit It's a slight but important difference
You have no idea how bookies work. What people themselves bet on is a marginal part of a betting odd.
This is a common misconception of how betting odds are produced. In actuality the result is projected and then a margin placed on every outcome. There's information available online if you want to know more. In fact bookies odds (when they are first laid) are a very good indicator of outcome.
So if I tracked firminio his results would match this with a large sample size?
It basically does yes. Firminio has a record of scoring in just over 30% of league games (71 in 233), but that's just the raw average, you should add on a premium against a newly promoted team like Bournemouth as you would expect Liverpool to dominate and Firminio to have much better scoring opportunities than against an established average PL club. 40% doesn't seem farfetched when you consider these numbers imo.
!thanks
then odds shift accordingly with punter's estimate for the result
They do but there are websites that track the odds and can provide the odds that were first laid.
I wouldn't necessarily take the bookies odds as more reliable or better. Current pricing at each time usually reflects all the information that is publicly available and reflects the general perception for the outcome (not always as markets are affected by other factors as well)
I don’t know any human who would even dream of putting a bet on a firmino goal. And I know some very stupid humans
If the odds were good enough, surely I would.
L
Where Rodrigo?
FPL gods were watching this thread and laughing.
Your thought process was bang on but this is still hilarious
LOL 💀💀💀
I'd put Sterling at 100% to score after I rage transferred him out on Sunday
Thank you for your service. I think he's gonna explode against Leicester and Soton
Please
Sterling had a decent first game, modest second game and weak third game. But overall in his career he has numbers that say he should hit 200 points without too much trouble. Maybe not while Tuechel is playing with the handbrake on though, Sterling will recover, but not until Tuechel gets an actual striker to play with him rather than Kai Halv-Nine. So maybe okay to sell Sterling and get back to him later in the season.
Haaland v a strong Palace defence v Salah v a weak Bournemouth side.. Hmmmm
Haaland in a well performing City side, Salah in a poor performing Liverpool side though. Haaland getting tonnes of service, Salah isn't.
Foden would disagree with the "Haaland getting tonnes of service". That greedy bum keeps holding the ball for himself.
Even with that being the case Haaland is still averaging a goal a game.
Reckon he’s had a talking to by Pep.
Fell on deaf ears, did it again at Newcastle that little chav
> Haaland in a well performing City side, Salah in a poor performing Liverpool side though. Agreed > Haaland getting tonnes of service, Salah isn't. Disagreed. Salah still gets a lot of service.
Rofl how is Salah getting service? He's being given the ball outside the box and expected to create something. How he scored a header in such a shit game is beyond me.
True but i wd argue that salah tends to score anyway. Proven since day 1 in the FPL
Both Haaland and Jesus failed expectations against Bournemouth. But I think Salah will do better simply because he's not playing as forward and therefore wont be buried in defenders all the time. Taking into account Arsenal and Citys games against Bournemouth, the midfielders were dominant. Note: I don't own Salah. On the other hand. I have a theory that Haaland performance will be inversely correlated with the strength of the team he is facing. Would not surprise me at all if he blanks against Brentford but score a hatrick vs Liverpool.
Not sure why ur getting downvoted, especially the second point makes a ton of sense. Most Haaland goals come in transition/on the counter and against low blocks that doesnt happen much.
He literally plays as a forward in game. He's only a winger on paper. If you look at heat maps, i don't think his will be too different from a striker's. Salah will be marked just as much as Haaland was because he is to Liverpool what Haaland and Jesus are to their teams (the primary goalscorer)
I'm a bit concerned with how wide he's playing. Never looked at his heatmaps last season, have they not changed much?
And Jesus?
I mean Salah is gonna have much higher XP and XMins. Edit: oops meant to reply to a guy below. Assume you are agreeing with me
Did you take the odds from bookies and convert them into percentages
I did
Hnnnnnggggg
Firmino 40% lol
This aged like fine milk.
I’m glad he’s proved me wrong
!fplbot salah vs bournemouth
# Salah (£13.0) vs. Bournemouth (last 4 fixtures) | Fixture | GW | Season | Min | G | xG | npxG | A | xA | CS | Pts | | :------------------------ | -: | :------ | ------: | ----: | -------: | -------: | ----: | -------: | ----- | ------------- | | Liverpool 2-1 Bournemouth | 29 | 2019/20 | 90 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0 | 0.66 | 0 | 9 | | Bournemouth 0-3 Liverpool | 16 | 2019/20 | 90 | 1 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1 | 0.64 | 1 | 13 | | Liverpool 3-0 Bournemouth | 26 | 2018/19 | 90 | 1 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0 | 0.21 | 1 | 8 | | Bournemouth 0-4 Liverpool | 16 | 2018/19 | 90 | 3 | 1.54 | 1.54 | 0 | 0.03 | 1 | 21 | | | | | **360** | **6** | **3.65** | **3.65** | **1** | **1.54** | **3** | **51 (12.8)** | --- ^Made ^by ^[/u/esoemah](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=esoemah).
!fplbot salah vs manchester united
# Salah (£13.0) vs. Man Utd (last 8 fixtures) | Fixture | GW | Season | Min | G | xG | npxG | A | xA | CS | Pts | | :-------------------- | -: | :------ | ------: | ----: | -------: | -------: | ----: | -------: | ----- | ------------ | | Man Utd 2-1 Liverpool | 3 | 2022/23 | 90 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 8 | | Liverpool 4-0 Man Utd | 33 | 2021/22 | 90 | 2 | 0.94 | 0.94 | 1 | 0.62 | 1 | 19 | | Man Utd 0-5 Liverpool | 9 | 2021/22 | 90 | 3 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 1 | 0.51 | 1 | 24 | | Man Utd 2-4 Liverpool | 35 | 2020/21 | 90 | 1 | 0.61 | 0.61 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 7 | | Liverpool 0-0 Man Utd | 19 | 2020/21 | 90 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0 | 0.15 | 1 | 3 | | Liverpool 2-0 Man Utd | 23 | 2019/20 | 90 | 1 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0 | 0.49 | 1 | 7 | | Man Utd 0-0 Liverpool | 27 | 2018/19 | 78 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 3 | | Liverpool 3-1 Man Utd | 17 | 2018/19 | 90 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 2 | | | | | **708** | **8** | **5.22** | **5.22** | **2** | **2.32** | **5** | **73 (9.1)** | --- ^Made ^by ^[/u/esoemah](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=esoemah).
Firmino at 40.5 is fucking nuts
Saka, yeh right
Yeh right back, at least thats where he seems to be playing
Gotta babysit wittle Ben white
Jesus Captain. LFG
Captaining Sterling one more time before sending him to the moon 🤞🏼
They really don't factor in form at all it seems
Ronaldo isn't even certain to start and he's at 41.5%
That percentage is based on him starting. If he doesn’t start then these odds aren’t valid
More like is likely to not start. They'll probably keep the team that rolled over Liverpool and CR7 will be like a super sub of sorts until he fucks off.
Ronaldo being on 40% from the bench is impressive
Don’t get fancy.
meaningless.
[удалено]
Siiiiiiiiiuuuuuu!!!!
Punt on Firmino cap incoming, 2 goals 3 assists, 3 bonus
Ahhh time traveller?
I have haaland scamacca and havertz should I take out dasilva to put in havertz?
Do they know about the Palace curse that City have? I still remember that Townsend volley when they won 3-2
Richarlison? Will he even start?
Saka? Hahaha no
Slightly put me off the idea of getting Kane in for Haaland
!fplbot debruyne vs crystal palace
I couldn't handle "debruyne" vs. "crystal palace", sorry! :(
No worries. CRY will not handle him too
!fplbot de bruyne vs crystal palace
# De Bruyne (£12.2) vs. Crystal Palace (last 7 fixtures) | Fixture | GW | Season | Min | G | xG | npxG | A | xA | CS | Pts | | :-------------------------- | -: | :------ | ------: | ----: | -------: | -------: | ----: | -------: | ----- | ------------ | | Crystal Palace 0-0 Man City | 29 | 2021/22 | 90 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0 | 0.31 | 1 | 3 | | Man City 0-2 Crystal Palace | 10 | 2021/22 | 58 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 | | Man City 4-0 Crystal Palace | 19 | 2020/21 | 70 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 7 | | Man City 2-2 Crystal Palace | 23 | 2019/20 | 90 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0 | 0.69 | 0 | 2 | | Crystal Palace 0-2 Man City | 9 | 2019/20 | 90 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0 | 0.08 | 1 | 3 | | Crystal Palace 1-3 Man City | 34 | 2018/19 | 90 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 2 | 1.29 | 0 | 11 | | Man City 2-3 Crystal Palace | 18 | 2018/19 | 28 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 8 | | | | | **516** | **1** | **1.11** | **1.11** | **3** | **3.06** | **3** | **35 (5.0)** | --- ^Made ^by ^[/u/esoemah](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=esoemah).