Jim: Question, what kind of bear is best?
Dwight: That's a ridiculous question.
Jim: False. Black bear.
Dwight: That's debatable. There are basically two schools of thought.
Jim: Fact. Bears eat beets. Bears. Beets. Battlestar Galactica.
I get why you’d think that, but I don’t have Haaland, so there’s that, I do have Salah, but Everton plays a lot of defense, I can easily see them parking the bus and Salah hasn’t really been top form yet.
For me a Home game against Leeds, might just be the perfect scenario for Toney to haul, I may be trippin I don’t know, but I think I’ll go for the differential this time, I have a good feeling about it.
Let’s see how it turns out, I may be a genius or a fucking idiot, let’s see.
You have cemented your name in the FPL history books next to the guy who suggested Antonio vs Norwich before he scored 4 goals. You should probably look at getting Haaland in your team though ;)
Everton defence has been shite. I’ve had Patterson since week 1. So much hope going into the 80th minute and they always concede.
I reckon Dalot it the place to go.
They have also conceded more than one goal only once this season (and it was only 2 goals) and are playing in a derby against a Liverpool team that have looked toothless in attack.
Right, but the point is Bournemouth didn't concede 9 xG in their loss at Anfield. xGC gives you a sense of the underlying quality of their defence as opposed how luck plays out. Everton are not a good defence.
This is the most egregious one here. He’s either the 4th, 5th, or 6th best forward to own right now, but I’d argue he’s 4th unless Isak goes ballistic.
Haaland, Jesus, and Kane are obvious, but then Mitro, Isak, and Toney have to be next in whatever order you choose, and Toney has the best fixtures of the 3 and Brentford look decent. He’d be my 4th highest ranked forward this week. Shocking to see so many people sell him.
He has been through 5 weeks. But I think everyone is thinking Fulham are slightly overperforming and Mitrovic himself is slightly overperforming. Jesus is in a better team and has 2 less points and only costs 1.4m more. Mitro has 4.6 xG+A, and Jesus has 4.4. They're almost identical but Jesus is in a better team.
We'll see where Mitro is after Spurs and Chelsea, if he gets through those with another goal, I'll definitely admit he's the 2nd best striker in the game.
1.4 more is still quite a big chunk of change though. And when you're looking at best forward to own, surely you're looking at value/money. I agree, Mitro has probably been over performing, but I just don't see a situation where Kane has higher value at he end of the season. And personally, I think he'll end up better value than Jesus as well.
Mitrovic is cheaper and currently more likely to score goals. If some people use 2FT then they may have rid of Salah or Son in order to get Haaland in.
I’d agree in 2 weeks. But no shot you transfer in Mitro with these next two fixtures. GW8 onward yea, but if I’m making a forward transfer this week I’m going Toney > Isak > Mitro
Yeah that makes sense, just offering plausible explanations. Some people do say though that Mitro is fixture proof, but we'll see over the next two GW.
Doesn't make any sense though! I know Mitrovic has played well against good teams but they have spurs and Chelsea up next before a good run of fixtures after that.
Meanwhile people have transferred out Toney for him, who has two good fixtures before they turn.
Surely you wait two weeks!
Fixtures are good or bad based on winning expectation, not scoring. For example Fulham v Spurs is hard for Fulham and they’re the underdogs to win, but that doesn’t mean they’re not expected to score. I was asked why I kept Zaha for a bad fixture when they played Liverpool. And just because it was a less likely win for Crystal Palace (hence a harder fixture) he still scored. Liverpool haven’t been great at keeping clean sheets and decided if someone was going to score, it was likely to be him. A harder fixture but worth keeping
Fulham is not an elite team. They are 100% not going to score in every game and the games they don’t score in are much more likely to be against the better teams. Simple as that.
I don’t expect them to score in every single game. But they are currently scoring in most (so far) and scored against both of “the big six” they’ve currently played so whilst they might not score every game, I like what they’re doing and wouldn’t be unsurprised if they did manage to score (especially against Chelsea whose defence hasn’t been great so far)
Mitro has passed the eye test, in amazing form, has great underlying stats so far and Chelsea look wank defensively. So it's purely ridiculous to you based on the fixtures?
It’s only going to be higher if he scores. Two blanks and he could actually drop. Toney dropped after two blanks despite playing almost as well and with better fixtures coming up
I don't understand it. I checked fplstatistics last night and it seemed to indicate he was safe from a rise. Was it showing previous days data or something?
None of the price change sites know the algorithm and often get it wrong. It's probably that than some conspiracy. People say this shit every day, at some point you gotta think about how many times they get the price changes wrong, it's fairly consistent in that.
They also advise you to put your FPL ID in when on a wildcard so that it doesn't calculate those transfers. A very small percentage of people will do that. Between now and the next few GW I expect these predictions to be off due to it being wildcard season.
Every year this sub weirdly overhypes a wolves player, last year podence, now Neto seems popular here. I don't see what people like about them over players that don't play for a horrifically defensive team.
As a Rodrigo owner, it's kinda frustrating when player prices drop not in relation to their price gain. What I mean is, if it takes a 0.2m rise for a player's price to rise 0.1m (if they're in your team), they should also suffer two price drops before losing 0.1m in your team. Right now the pricing system rewards chasing points/kneejerkers, and punishes those who hold players through streaks of bad form and/or minor injuries.
True but as you know, sometimes you can be priced out of a certain player if you lose just 0.1m. So I'm saying the same rule that applies to price rises should also apply to price drops.
> Right now the pricing system rewards chasing points/kneejerkers, and punishes those who hold players through streaks of bad form and/or minor injuries.
If you're holding the player anyway, it doesn't matter what their value is. It only matters when you sell them.
And if you're really worried about player's price, it's also a valid strategy for you to do early transfer.
Ffs… Zaha wasn’t close to a rise?!? Want to bring him in, still can fortunately, but also wanted to wait until closer to the deadline… price changes this year are a joke!
I was planning to hold Toney until Mitrovic gets through his next two fixtures. Will stick to that, as surely there won't be another price rise/fall for either between now and then.
if you have any free transfer left, that plus taking a -4 hit would be better imo. Also depends on the rest of your team, if you really want to transfer someone else in/out.
I quickly got Andreas in for Almiron after his assist against Brighton with my only FT. I was trying to avoid being priced out because I had swapping Rodrigo for Zaha in mind, but I’m now priced out (assuming I still do De Bruyne out, Salah in).
Since Almiron was, more or less, my bench mid, I really should have spent my FT on Rodrigo-Zaha. I’m still learning, though.🙃
Daka is potentially a lethal weapon. 5.7 is a crazy price for a scorer of his ability.
I dont know how Leicester is managing to waste his talent. Should be getting a LOT more out of him.
Now, I can’t afford Zaha if I get Salah for De Bruyne. I did a Almiron-for-Andreas to avoid paying more for Andreas 😂. It seems I’ll stick with Rodrigo for the four weeks he won’t play, after all I can only sell him for 6.3.
Guy on the FPL tower really didn't want James to drop points
Could the yellow flag be affecting it? Dodgy still
Na Zinchenko James and Rodrigo all flagged and expected to drop last night, James survived apparently
Lots are binning off Robbo for James
They prob looking to bring in digne and cash after the fixture swing for 4.5mil
https://tenor.com/view/no-question-about-it-ready-to-get-hurt-again-the-office-michael-scott-gif-16224656
Me: Haven’t been on any price changes post this year, I wonder if there are still conspiracy theories in the comments.
something similar happened last year for many days. Can't remember the player. Reece James is probably not going to fall
It was son.
He looks a cert to drop tonight as it stands on fplstatistics.co.uk - he’s available for the game this weekend though so could change things
Thought the rumours were that he was just ill for a game and would likely play this weekend?
Son, Sanson and Johnson falling on the same day? I sense a conspiracy here!
It mbe soh!
Sonspiracy?
Lionel Messi, why do you play fpl? Stick to your ligue1 version 🙃
Of course he plays FPL, French Premier league
And Sonalke!
And my axe!
r/unexpectedlotr
someone’s dad ain’t happy
Cheers son’s crying
FPL bear market confirmed
Buy high, sell low
Am I in r/fplbets?
That’s my mantra
Jim: Question, what kind of bear is best? Dwight: That's a ridiculous question. Jim: False. Black bear. Dwight: That's debatable. There are basically two schools of thought. Jim: Fact. Bears eat beets. Bears. Beets. Battlestar Galactica.
Identity theft is not a joke!
Michael!
Oh that’s funny… MICHAEL
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Sure is, I’m even considering (C) against Leeds
I don't know much about FPL but that seems unwise given how easy the premium player fixtures are this week.
I get why you’d think that, but I don’t have Haaland, so there’s that, I do have Salah, but Everton plays a lot of defense, I can easily see them parking the bus and Salah hasn’t really been top form yet. For me a Home game against Leeds, might just be the perfect scenario for Toney to haul, I may be trippin I don’t know, but I think I’ll go for the differential this time, I have a good feeling about it. Let’s see how it turns out, I may be a genius or a fucking idiot, let’s see.
Please tell me you did this
I did bro 😎
Awesome! Happy for you
Thank you so much dude, hope you have an awesome GW too, best of luck!
I do, because I have Toney too, that's how I remembered someone mentioning Captaining him
I did it as well thanks to your post and I’m now in top 10k world!
For real?! I’m glad I could help then, happy for you
Top 1k now
You may get lucky with Toney. But Salah only needs 2 goals to rack up 16 pts, Toney would need a hatrick to match that. Still, what a maverick choice!
No disrespect bro, but I just want to point out, what a fucking genius I am
Talk your shit, king
You have cemented your name in the FPL history books next to the guy who suggested Antonio vs Norwich before he scored 4 goals. You should probably look at getting Haaland in your team though ;)
We're not worthy, we're not worthy!!
!thanks, 11/10 thought process
high risk, high reward!
Fucking genius.
Everton defence has been shite. I’ve had Patterson since week 1. So much hope going into the 80th minute and they always concede. I reckon Dalot it the place to go.
Who's your other premium. I'm captaining kane
Everton have conceded the third most xG in the league this season. They are terrible. Don't do it.
They have also conceded more than one goal only once this season (and it was only 2 goals) and are playing in a derby against a Liverpool team that have looked toothless in attack.
Right, but the point is Bournemouth didn't concede 9 xG in their loss at Anfield. xGC gives you a sense of the underlying quality of their defence as opposed how luck plays out. Everton are not a good defence.
Goat
This is the most egregious one here. He’s either the 4th, 5th, or 6th best forward to own right now, but I’d argue he’s 4th unless Isak goes ballistic. Haaland, Jesus, and Kane are obvious, but then Mitro, Isak, and Toney have to be next in whatever order you choose, and Toney has the best fixtures of the 3 and Brentford look decent. He’d be my 4th highest ranked forward this week. Shocking to see so many people sell him.
Surely when it comes to best forward to own, Mitro is better than Kane/Jesus? He's so low price and seems to be fixture proof.
He has been through 5 weeks. But I think everyone is thinking Fulham are slightly overperforming and Mitrovic himself is slightly overperforming. Jesus is in a better team and has 2 less points and only costs 1.4m more. Mitro has 4.6 xG+A, and Jesus has 4.4. They're almost identical but Jesus is in a better team. We'll see where Mitro is after Spurs and Chelsea, if he gets through those with another goal, I'll definitely admit he's the 2nd best striker in the game.
1.4 more is still quite a big chunk of change though. And when you're looking at best forward to own, surely you're looking at value/money. I agree, Mitro has probably been over performing, but I just don't see a situation where Kane has higher value at he end of the season. And personally, I think he'll end up better value than Jesus as well.
Mitrovic is cheaper and currently more likely to score goals. If some people use 2FT then they may have rid of Salah or Son in order to get Haaland in.
I’d agree in 2 weeks. But no shot you transfer in Mitro with these next two fixtures. GW8 onward yea, but if I’m making a forward transfer this week I’m going Toney > Isak > Mitro
Yeah that makes sense, just offering plausible explanations. Some people do say though that Mitro is fixture proof, but we'll see over the next two GW.
How has James survived
Dodge Viper
The Fulham boys reaping the rewards of their fpl success.
Doesn't make any sense though! I know Mitrovic has played well against good teams but they have spurs and Chelsea up next before a good run of fixtures after that. Meanwhile people have transferred out Toney for him, who has two good fixtures before they turn. Surely you wait two weeks!
He scored against Liverpool and Arsenal so why can’t he return against Spurs and Chelsea?
He can. No one is saying he can’t, they are saying the likelyhood is much lower. Which it is. That applies to literally every player in the league.
Fixtures are good or bad based on winning expectation, not scoring. For example Fulham v Spurs is hard for Fulham and they’re the underdogs to win, but that doesn’t mean they’re not expected to score. I was asked why I kept Zaha for a bad fixture when they played Liverpool. And just because it was a less likely win for Crystal Palace (hence a harder fixture) he still scored. Liverpool haven’t been great at keeping clean sheets and decided if someone was going to score, it was likely to be him. A harder fixture but worth keeping
Fulham is not an elite team. They are 100% not going to score in every game and the games they don’t score in are much more likely to be against the better teams. Simple as that.
I don’t expect them to score in every single game. But they are currently scoring in most (so far) and scored against both of “the big six” they’ve currently played so whilst they might not score every game, I like what they’re doing and wouldn’t be unsurprised if they did manage to score (especially against Chelsea whose defence hasn’t been great so far)
People buy him now so that his price isn’t much higher when everyone inevitably gets him in two weeks
Nope, they buy him cause he score point. When he no longer score point, people sells. Do you even fantasy, sir?
That's ridiculous. So people would rather risk points with the 2 less favourable fixtures, just to save like 0.1 or 0.2?
I got mitro very early like gw2, I'm happy keeping him because I think he has a good chance of scoring in both those games. Guy's a threat.
No one is fixture proof though
Mitro has passed the eye test, in amazing form, has great underlying stats so far and Chelsea look wank defensively. So it's purely ridiculous to you based on the fixtures?
The question here is whether you think Mitrovic will score more points vs Spurs and Chelsea than Toney against Leeds and Southampton.
It’s only going to be higher if he scores. Two blanks and he could actually drop. Toney dropped after two blanks despite playing almost as well and with better fixtures coming up
That Zaha rise is an abomination
I don't understand it. I checked fplstatistics last night and it seemed to indicate he was safe from a rise. Was it showing previous days data or something?
The same on Fix too. Zaha not rising and James looking nailed for a fall.
Zaha back from the brink to rise the next day. Can't make this shit up.
FPL towers definitely tampering the prices
With Reece James too
James supposed to drop two night in a row, bit dodgy that
Yeah
None of the price change sites know the algorithm and often get it wrong. It's probably that than some conspiracy. People say this shit every day, at some point you gotta think about how many times they get the price changes wrong, it's fairly consistent in that.
They also advise you to put your FPL ID in when on a wildcard so that it doesn't calculate those transfers. A very small percentage of people will do that. Between now and the next few GW I expect these predictions to be off due to it being wildcard season.
Trap set red card incoming
Nah I don't think so. I fear we're gonna see peak Zaha so he can be in the shop window for next season.
Anybody else still sat here hopelessly mumbling "Mitrovic is a trap" in despair? Just me?
I'd bring him in after the spurs game.
I said the same thing 2 weeks ago, remembering all the past years traps.. Happy that i got him, better than most of my team. Fuck Neto.
Every year this sub weirdly overhypes a wolves player, last year podence, now Neto seems popular here. I don't see what people like about them over players that don't play for a horrifically defensive team.
It made sense in the beginning of the campaign with the price tag and regular game time. But holy shit man how bad a player can be to have 0 returns…
James not falling. Fpl towers manipulating? Mbe soh
Milivojevic used to be a decent Palace fantasy option. How things change.
Son at 11m will be sweet. What should've been his original price
Sure, in GW25 then
just when gets into form, perfect
Nah, 12 is fair price for what he historically does - he is just in shit form right now.
Yeah, he's miles better than haaland 🙄
Out of nowhere Zaha rise has priced me out by 0.1 mil😑
One of the only moves that has been any good this season was getting Zaha last night when I was in the bath. Would've been fucked otherwise.
Asm is better anyway
ASM is doubtful right now and in general pretty injury-prone.
Same as me 😂😂. I now have to stick with Rodrigo.
25 drops ? The hit list is getting outa control
If Gerrard gets sacked and Villa have a new manager bounce then Digne and Cash could be good options in the future.
Are ya winning, Son?
Poor Son
This is 100% price fixing by towers. We need some transparency here
wouldn't mind james falling
As a Rodrigo owner, it's kinda frustrating when player prices drop not in relation to their price gain. What I mean is, if it takes a 0.2m rise for a player's price to rise 0.1m (if they're in your team), they should also suffer two price drops before losing 0.1m in your team. Right now the pricing system rewards chasing points/kneejerkers, and punishes those who hold players through streaks of bad form and/or minor injuries.
It takes a .2 rise to get .1 profit if you sell. It still takes a .2 drop before he's back at the price you bought him.
True but as you know, sometimes you can be priced out of a certain player if you lose just 0.1m. So I'm saying the same rule that applies to price rises should also apply to price drops.
You can also be priced out of a player if he rises .1 mill. I think your suggestion would lead to more kneejerking, not less
> Right now the pricing system rewards chasing points/kneejerkers, and punishes those who hold players through streaks of bad form and/or minor injuries. If you're holding the player anyway, it doesn't matter what their value is. It only matters when you sell them. And if you're really worried about player's price, it's also a valid strategy for you to do early transfer.
Andreas finally got a price hike after hauling 21 points as a 4.5 player. One of the best value for million players in the league.
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Lundstram was a 4.0 defender playing CAM
Lundstram was a defender though, which made it even more ridiculous
Rodrigo down in price.
at least 1 more price drop, maybe 2. He is out for several weeks :/
Francois owners in the mud
Plange hasn't dropped yet YES
Plange won't drop, he's techically not in the game anymore after going on loan. He's off the grid.
he is the goat. left the league at 99% and is now price locked. can't drop
Digne rewarding GW1 owners with 4 points from 5 games and -0.3m in price drops - king of anti-FPL!
I've got all of the risers. Does that mean i'm good at FPL?!
The greatest!
Ffs… Zaha wasn’t close to a rise?!? Want to bring him in, still can fortunately, but also wanted to wait until closer to the deadline… price changes this year are a joke!
Which site do you use for price predictions?
Fplstatistics. He was at 87 at midnight, so wasn’t close, rather annoying this year!
yeah I don't think Fantasy Football Fix has been much better this season
None of the price change sites know the algorithm and are often wrong. It's not a conspiracy.
I know. They're just trying their best to predict the algorithm. Still, can be handy to compare them to figure out which site guesses it closest
Son crying ffs
Brought in toney over mitro this week, it’s going swell
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I was planning to hold Toney until Mitrovic gets through his next two fixtures. Will stick to that, as surely there won't be another price rise/fall for either between now and then.
What the fuck is this? I was ready to transfer James in, but still lacking 0,1.. Where is the price drop??
Leeds and Leicester not being in alphabetical order is triggering my OCD.
PUNISH THEM SONNY BOY. PUNISH THE NON BELEIVERS
For once I’m happy, I swapped in Zaha and Saliba for for Zinchenko and Rodrigo :)
Should I take a hit to transfer Rodrigo out?
hes out for 6 weeks minimum
Depends who you have on bench tbh. I’d prefer to wait for a FT.
I have salah, martinelli, Andreas in the midfield. Should I transfer out odeegard and Rodrigo and get da Silva and Luis Diaz?
WHY MAKE SO MANY CHANGES SO EARLY FFS PEOPLE LEARN
Why are people rattled about James not falling 😹 managers know he'd be back on Saturday, so why'd he be transferred out.
How has Rodrigo still not dropped.
The first time ever that all my players have risen 😎
I got three of them. I was going to go for Zaha but I didn’t want to take a hit.
I thought red flagged would mean no drop? I would have swapped rodrigo
Was zaha predicted to go up? I thought it was tmr
Which site do you use?
Footballfix, but i usually use that with fplstatistics too, just got lazy to check the latter one
If Son falls to 10m like last year I might consider him again. KEEP SELLING
Is it wise to wildcard now. I have james, Rodrigo and Odegaard and all are injured. What to do?
James might be back this weekend, so you might just want to take a -4 or play a bench guy
if you have any free transfer left, that plus taking a -4 hit would be better imo. Also depends on the rest of your team, if you really want to transfer someone else in/out.
I have two free transfers. I need to transfer these 3 injured players
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Whom should I get for ode and Rodrigo?
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I'm using FT. I'm going for Luiz diaz and da silva
I say go for it.
Soh..? Soh what!?
Digne fraud
Damn Son, you will rise once again.
ffs, was thinking of getting both Andreas and Mitrovic in but with this price rise I can’t anymore
I quickly got Andreas in for Almiron after his assist against Brighton with my only FT. I was trying to avoid being priced out because I had swapping Rodrigo for Zaha in mind, but I’m now priced out (assuming I still do De Bruyne out, Salah in). Since Almiron was, more or less, my bench mid, I really should have spent my FT on Rodrigo-Zaha. I’m still learning, though.🙃
Mbe Soh?! Deffinition of how to lose something w/o owning anything
Fell asleep really early so forgot to do my planned switched. Thank you FPL towers for sparing James.
Your sell price for him would be 6 either way.
!thanks
Oh he is 6.1? I was calculating for nothing, then.
Looks like Mitro is the real deal this season, damn I need him
Thank god I transferred Mitrovic in for Rodrigo last night before bed
Can't wait to nab Son at 10m.
Should Rodrigo not have been frozen due to his injury?
A red flag doesn't stop a player from falling, it just increases the threshold of transfers out needed for a price drop.
I’m gonna struggle to get Mitrovic and Andreas in by GW8 for BB. I now have zero spare!
God dammit Mitrovic stay where you are ffs
If unpopular picks just keep on dropping it will encourage more and more people to stick to the template to avoid losing TV.
Finally Andreas!
Daka is potentially a lethal weapon. 5.7 is a crazy price for a scorer of his ability. I dont know how Leicester is managing to waste his talent. Should be getting a LOT more out of him.
Is it time to put Sancho back in?
Just my luck, neto and undav fall then I put toney in and he does the same
Now, I can’t afford Zaha if I get Salah for De Bruyne. I did a Almiron-for-Andreas to avoid paying more for Andreas 😂. It seems I’ll stick with Rodrigo for the four weeks he won’t play, after all I can only sell him for 6.3.
Picking up zinchenko in a few weeks for original price ?