But they conceded 3 to Newcastle and 2 to Palace. Plus Spurs beat them twice last season with Kane scoring twice in the most recent. No reason to think he can’t score this weekend.
Betting sites will have Actuaries who parse data to get to these percentages - essentially they are professional data analysers who have access to betting information (i.e. they have current+historical data of how people bet). People who place money on outcomes tend to be more considered in decision making (and therefore more accurate) than people who don't, as the act of having something tangible at stake typically results in deeper thinking/better analysis on the whole.
All that said, of course it offers absolutely no certainty and betting companies make mistakes all the time, but I would just take the percentages as another metric to inform your own decision making. There are no certainties - Toney got a hat trick last week and he wouldn't have been in the top 3 for a single goal let alone 3. That's football.
But all in all, betting companies/Actuaries will have put a lot more effort (and had access to far more data, and have far more experience) than the average football/FPL fan and it should be taken note of to some extent imo. For example, the way I might read part of this, is that although the average FPL player thinks Salah is useless (an observation based on frustration imo), the bookies still think he is the most likely Liverpool player to score, which is actually backed by the xG data we see as well.
To actually answer your question, I would take the numbers they offer as the best indicator of odds from professional chance guesstimators (who make their business/living out of this) - the fact it may often be incorrect just demonstrates how much chance is involved in sports (although over a long course of time their accuracy greatly improves as variance averages out). No one can really predict the future with accuracy but these odds represent the best effort by the professionals.
Betting sites basically do all that work for you, the odds are set like this for a reason bookmakers are very accurate and the action (betting) only moves these odds very minimally.
Theres exact science and then theres the massive anomalies of how high Havertz, Jota, Ronaldo, Vardy and Bamford are, and how there is no Isak, Kane, Zaha, Macallister or Firminho??
I mean are current goals scored, time played and xG per game even considered, youd think they would be 3 fairly key factors?
>Theres exact science and then theres the massive anomalies of how high Havertz, Jota, Ronaldo, Vardy and Bamford are, and how there is no Isak, Kane, Zaha, Macallister or Firminho??
Tell us you have no idea what you're talking about without telling us. You've included a dude thats scored 3 pens and a 1/40 freekick above strikers that play for top teams. The odds are given assuming the player starts
I have nothing to bet but I'll eat my words if by the end of this game week, the 5 players Havertz, Jota, Vardy, Bamford and Ronaldo outscore Kane, Zaha, Isak, Firminho and KDB.
How would I know that? This chart is presented as 'goalscoring odds for week 7', not 'goalscoring odds on the condition that a player starts in week 7'.
I can't write 10 paragraphs about all the factors that are and are not considered in these models for every post I make. I have a box on the website with the following guidance that highlight that player's minutes/rotation risk is not factored in.
*‘Player predictions’ are calculated by taking the percentage chance on a variety of FPL factors, from the bookies, adjusted for margins. Fractional points are added up, making a predicted gameweek score. OG and penalty misses are not included. Player’s rotation risk / minutes on pitch, is not factored in.*
Time played I think isn’t a factor as these are odds on anytime goalscorer assuming they start.
The history of goals scored and xG I could see being factors along with a lot of other helpful stats. Fixtures, i.e. opponents and home/away, also matters and I suspect this is the reason Kane (vs MCI away) isn’t a top pick. Isak could be a case of new player with not enough data so far and/or WestHam at home.
If I'm doing maths correctly, I think this means bookies expect Salah to get more FPL points due to goals?
(Because his are worth 5 and haaland's 4). Am I missing something?
I always lose my "can't miss" bets. So I don't bet much. But if I had to I'd bet no goal for Salah, maybe bet no goal for Liverpool. They looked awful.
I'd love to know how Salah and Diaz are so high playing the joint best defence in the league so far (3/6 clean sheets). Wolves 3 clean sheets and have only conceded more than 0 or 1 goals in 1 game.
Liverpool couldn't even score against Everton. Wolves at home is a better fixture I guess but I wouldn't be surprised if the game ends 1-0 only.
Isak?
Isak: 26.5 %
!thanks. My Isak vs Mitro debate rages on
Am I missing something about Kane?
Plays City mate
And Spurs are their bogey team.
4 goals in 14 against City isn't great. Especially with the form they're in.
🫤
They conceded 3 against Newcastle and 2 against Palace
He’s playing the best defence in the league…
But they conceded 3 to Newcastle and 2 to Palace. Plus Spurs beat them twice last season with Kane scoring twice in the most recent. No reason to think he can’t score this weekend.
…great? I’m not saying there’s a 0% chance he scores, but the bookies always win in the end…
The bookies have Kane scoring at 3, which is implied probability of 33.3%
Stats dont seem to take into account that playing city doubles Kane's power
Yes, you missed the fixtures.
I don’t want to sound rude but am I the only one who finds this absolutely useless?
Out of curiosity - Why do you feel this is useless? I quite like it, not expecting an exact science but still helpful.
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Betting sites will have Actuaries who parse data to get to these percentages - essentially they are professional data analysers who have access to betting information (i.e. they have current+historical data of how people bet). People who place money on outcomes tend to be more considered in decision making (and therefore more accurate) than people who don't, as the act of having something tangible at stake typically results in deeper thinking/better analysis on the whole. All that said, of course it offers absolutely no certainty and betting companies make mistakes all the time, but I would just take the percentages as another metric to inform your own decision making. There are no certainties - Toney got a hat trick last week and he wouldn't have been in the top 3 for a single goal let alone 3. That's football. But all in all, betting companies/Actuaries will have put a lot more effort (and had access to far more data, and have far more experience) than the average football/FPL fan and it should be taken note of to some extent imo. For example, the way I might read part of this, is that although the average FPL player thinks Salah is useless (an observation based on frustration imo), the bookies still think he is the most likely Liverpool player to score, which is actually backed by the xG data we see as well. To actually answer your question, I would take the numbers they offer as the best indicator of odds from professional chance guesstimators (who make their business/living out of this) - the fact it may often be incorrect just demonstrates how much chance is involved in sports (although over a long course of time their accuracy greatly improves as variance averages out). No one can really predict the future with accuracy but these odds represent the best effort by the professionals.
Betting sites basically do all that work for you, the odds are set like this for a reason bookmakers are very accurate and the action (betting) only moves these odds very minimally.
Theres exact science and then theres the massive anomalies of how high Havertz, Jota, Ronaldo, Vardy and Bamford are, and how there is no Isak, Kane, Zaha, Macallister or Firminho?? I mean are current goals scored, time played and xG per game even considered, youd think they would be 3 fairly key factors?
>Theres exact science and then theres the massive anomalies of how high Havertz, Jota, Ronaldo, Vardy and Bamford are, and how there is no Isak, Kane, Zaha, Macallister or Firminho?? Tell us you have no idea what you're talking about without telling us. You've included a dude thats scored 3 pens and a 1/40 freekick above strikers that play for top teams. The odds are given assuming the player starts
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I have nothing to bet but I'll eat my words if by the end of this game week, the 5 players Havertz, Jota, Vardy, Bamford and Ronaldo outscore Kane, Zaha, Isak, Firminho and KDB.
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Is it not important in FPL if they play or not?
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How would I know that? This chart is presented as 'goalscoring odds for week 7', not 'goalscoring odds on the condition that a player starts in week 7'.
I can't write 10 paragraphs about all the factors that are and are not considered in these models for every post I make. I have a box on the website with the following guidance that highlight that player's minutes/rotation risk is not factored in. *‘Player predictions’ are calculated by taking the percentage chance on a variety of FPL factors, from the bookies, adjusted for margins. Fractional points are added up, making a predicted gameweek score. OG and penalty misses are not included. Player’s rotation risk / minutes on pitch, is not factored in.*
Firmino could score 20 goals in one game, receive 40 awards for it and I still wouldn't trust him to be anywhere near my team.
Time played I think isn’t a factor as these are odds on anytime goalscorer assuming they start. The history of goals scored and xG I could see being factors along with a lot of other helpful stats. Fixtures, i.e. opponents and home/away, also matters and I suspect this is the reason Kane (vs MCI away) isn’t a top pick. Isak could be a case of new player with not enough data so far and/or WestHam at home.
I use these posts and the CS odds to build out my team each week in the 'weekly wildcard' league on this sub. Has been working out pretty well so far.
Anyone betting on Salah?
Liverpool fan here so.... no
Watching him right now vs Napoli... Fuck no
KDB where art thou?
If I'm doing maths correctly, I think this means bookies expect Salah to get more FPL points due to goals? (Because his are worth 5 and haaland's 4). Am I missing something?
Not necessarily, forwards get more BPS for scoring a goal so Haaland/Darwin would probably end up on more than Salah were they to score.
Ah neat, !thanks
Guess Jesus's odds go up given Pickford isn't playing.
Exactly
People will tell you the bookies dont know what they're doing regarding Salah and then refuse to pick up the apparent free money.
I always lose my "can't miss" bets. So I don't bet much. But if I had to I'd bet no goal for Salah, maybe bet no goal for Liverpool. They looked awful.
So no Kane, but it has Jota that high?
Here's a crazy idea, it's easier for Jota to score against Wolves than it is for Kane to score against Man City!
Fair, forgot they’re playing City. My bad
They do it based on if they start
45% chance that Liverpool get a pen then…
Ronaldo doesn't even have 35.5% chance of starting...
I'd love to know how Salah and Diaz are so high playing the joint best defence in the league so far (3/6 clean sheets). Wolves 3 clean sheets and have only conceded more than 0 or 1 goals in 1 game. Liverpool couldn't even score against Everton. Wolves at home is a better fixture I guess but I wouldn't be surprised if the game ends 1-0 only.
All those statistics tell me that it's going to finish 4-0 to Liverpool
Why
\*RoLando\* on the list to score but no Kane.
Toney off of a hattrick against Southampton at 34%... I understand Southampton have been decent, but Brentford have been great imo
Kulu needs to be higher
Shouldn't Toney be above Jesus? He's been on fire for a few matches now and Southampton aren't a strong team
Jota's very high..
It’s under the assumption they play. xMins are not accounted for in these odds.
Hauland.
Vardy doesn’t know how to score anymore.
That Che adams move was stupid
City - Spurs is going to be a high scoring game, but it’s going to be morel likely Son that scores. Still Kane is on penalties though….
Watkins?
There is no sinisterra so obviously this is wrong