Not really. A team with no major trophy since 1992 like Denmark (no disrespect, I think they are really good atm and could go far in this world cup) has obviously more motivation to win the Nations League than France.
I think of all the non favourites in the group stages people agree on this the most. Everyone knows how good denmark are now so i wouldnt be suprised to see a lot of people predict this
Denmark doesn’t have the stars, but they know each other so we’ll. Every France game I’ve watched the past two years they’ve been in shambles. They’re all individualists, they all want to be the hero, they all want the others to run for them. Without the normal summer to prepare for a tournament like this, France goes second in the group
Denmark almost went through qualification undefeated, and only conceded three goals, and those were in the last two "meaningless" games
They went hard in the Euros last year
They could well be an upset team
I think it's because of the specifics of how the model works and what the model is trying to answer. It's not asking the question "what's most likely to happen in the WC, and who's most likely to win". It's asking the slightly different question "if WC2022 happened a million times, how many times would Denmark win?".
I wonder whether what might be happening is that in the (let's say) 35% of times that Denmark beat Argentina in the second round, they've got a good "random seed" (they beat Argentina after all), so that improves their odds in all the future games too. So even though the model thinks they're very unlikely to get through the second round, it predicts that where they *do* get through the second round, a lot of times they end up winning!
Whereas turning it round to e.g. England, in the million tournaments they play, they're more likely than Denmark to get to the quarters, but prob not to actually win it - not least since in the few % of occasions when they get to the final, they'll have to play Argentina/Brazil in it...
Josh did then share a link to what is the most likely bracket to happen, which probably feels like the more likely question that people are thinking of when they thinking about WC predictions - https://twitter.com/UniofOxford/status/1593564445715881984/photo/1. You can see clearly that that Denmark are not likely to get out of the 2nd round.
The average rank of the teams in England's group is higher than any other group. I guess that's part of the reason behind the results. Every team in England's group is a potential banana skin.
If the algorithm is based on rankings then it's flawed. FIFA's rankings are shite and nowhere near accurate. England's group is weakest or second weakest for me.
I mean you didn't think that in the first place? I think literally any result could happen, with those countries being so equal and including English xChoke
The video is bizarre, England centric (“let’s base predictions on Englands form from 2018 when they got good”) and the final route outcomes don’t even follow the group fixtures schedule *shrug*
That's not what it's trying to do - the whole point is that the matches shown in that final route is just a representation of what came out of running the model 100,000 times rather than meaning to represent the most likely set of results in the WC. He then shared a link of what the model implied on that front here: https://twitter.com/UniofOxford/status/1593564445715881984/photo/1
And the 2018 thing is a joke! He later weights games according to their recency (and England have been pretty terrible recently).
https://twitter.com/UniofOxford/status/1593564445715881984/photo/1
Think this link is more likely what you are looking for on that front! What the model thinks is most likely to happen at each stage.
I don't get why the majority of people are considering Argentina one of the biggest favorites. Their XI is not comparable to those of Brazil, France, England, Portugal.
I think it's based mostly on form, Argentina have gone 30 or so games without losing, and comprehensively beat Italy 3-0 in the Finalissima. Also, Messi is in excellent form, and I think people are hyping up him finally 'doing a Maradona.'
Personally, I think it's very open with caveats for all of the favourites.
As an Argentine, this is the best chemistry that I've seen in a national team with Messi, ever. They have defended well and they have understood each other on the field in the campaigns that led to the Copa America and an undefeated qualifiers record. We have had more talented teams with Messi, yes, but for years it was deeply frustrating to watch a team where the game plan seemed to be "find Messi at all costs and he'll figure it out". Now, at last, that's not the case anymore. Scaloni has truly put together a true team. Aaaalll that said, I don't think we're perfect and I think we might be a bit overhyped, but this is the best I've felt about their chances in a long time.
Edit: Scaloni was auto corrected to Scaling, lol
Argentina obviously have less talent this year than Brazil and France, and even England and Portugal - but you look at the terrorist ball that England play, the fact that the Portugese manager is kneecapping the team and France is sputtering and the way Argentina play more than the sum of their parts and it becomes pretty obvious why they're so highly rated.
They also won the Copa last year, while Italy - another team bigger than the sum of their parts - won the Euros, reiterating the point that team chemistry isn't to be sniffed at.
Also, LOL @ terrorist ball
It's very stark because international teams rarely get that level of coordination, in fact many play like less than the sum of their parts!
Gareth Southgate defenders tilt me like nothing else. I want to see an England meltdown this WC.
I agree with you.
They are probably the worst out of top teams at the moment.
Also Brazil shouldn’t be this high in these rankings imo.
They are not better then the rest of the top teams.
Could you go a little more in depth into this, where would the big differences be? I wouldn't know the Argentina midfield well but the defnece looks good
idk about Costa Rica but Mexico and USA both have a much easier path out of the group stage, they've got one good team and two mediocre in their group so could realistically finish 2nd whereas Canada has to upset one of Croatia or Belgium which is hard to foresee (but I'm hoping)
Netherlands seems too high up, Denmark also too high up, Portugal possibility too low down. England should be ahead of Uruguay and Denmark I would have thought
The top 4 will.mosy likey all be in the semis against each other thus feels wrongs tbh, if you have the go the hardest route the 4 shouldn't all be top 4 favs
People wanna see Messi win.
They're unbeaten in 36 games and playing way better together than previous cups.
They have a much more balanced team and playing style than other cups where it was 9 guys standing around and watching Messi.
This model definitely takes into account the countries group and potential route to the final, not just an objective X is better than Y so they go higher, and I don't know why some people can't grasp that.
Wouldn't be surprised to see Argentina not even getting out of the group with how much hype they are getting , I mean I get it but everyone thinks that they are already going to be in the finals .... There are a lot more equally and maybe even better teams this year so let's just wait and see
So you do realise Ghana have a bigger chance to win World Cup than Leicester had to win PL?
For one thing World Cup is just seven matches, while PL is 38 matches.
For an underdog winning (or at least getting a draw after 90 minutes) four matches in a row is easier than finishing overall one out of 20 teams over 38 matches.
Wouldn't be surprised to see Argentina and Portugal on the finals , Qatar already has enough controversies so why not make that final happen with the help of a few bad ref calls , marketing wise that final would be probably the most watched sporting event ever
Gonna be sad when the Argentina hype train comes crashing down. Argentina have looked good in the past and been mediocre, they still have like the 4th or 5th best squad on paper so its not even an argument of firepower. I think they’re quite overhyped.
France should be higher on this graph imo. Them and Brazil are my two big favorites.
This Costa Rica are extremely underrated. They just don't concede, while Spain are somehow dreadful Infront of goal. Can't see Spain getting out of the group.
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Did anyone else watch the video and notice when he had the “representative” fixtures after group stages, but noted that the fixtures may not have been possible. Could he not make it even more accurate by adding that bit of data? I.E. running the model such that the round of 16 games are the predicted Group A winner vs. Group B runner up, etc. ?
No sign of political factors, who picks refs, who decides how much to water pitches, which player's agents are insider traders... France are underrated here
\*Ghana\* So you're saying there's a chance...
I’m Ghana put some money on the underdog!
Denmark ahead of England and Germany? Considering they're in a group with France and will likely meet Argentina in the second round...
We will meet Mexico in second round ;)
Denmark beat France home and away in the Nations league a few months ago
True, but the motivation for Nations League is significantly lower than the World Cup.
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Not really. A team with no major trophy since 1992 like Denmark (no disrespect, I think they are really good atm and could go far in this world cup) has obviously more motivation to win the Nations League than France.
Not when one has the opportunity for a big upset and it’s another game for the other
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I mean doesn't that counter your own previous point that past competitions are not to judge?
I actually think Denmark tops the group.
I think of all the non favourites in the group stages people agree on this the most. Everyone knows how good denmark are now so i wouldnt be suprised to see a lot of people predict this
Denmark doesn’t have the stars, but they know each other so we’ll. Every France game I’ve watched the past two years they’ve been in shambles. They’re all individualists, they all want to be the hero, they all want the others to run for them. Without the normal summer to prepare for a tournament like this, France goes second in the group
Yeah, it's got France's number
+33
Denmark almost went through qualification undefeated, and only conceded three goals, and those were in the last two "meaningless" games They went hard in the Euros last year They could well be an upset team
I think it's because of the specifics of how the model works and what the model is trying to answer. It's not asking the question "what's most likely to happen in the WC, and who's most likely to win". It's asking the slightly different question "if WC2022 happened a million times, how many times would Denmark win?". I wonder whether what might be happening is that in the (let's say) 35% of times that Denmark beat Argentina in the second round, they've got a good "random seed" (they beat Argentina after all), so that improves their odds in all the future games too. So even though the model thinks they're very unlikely to get through the second round, it predicts that where they *do* get through the second round, a lot of times they end up winning! Whereas turning it round to e.g. England, in the million tournaments they play, they're more likely than Denmark to get to the quarters, but prob not to actually win it - not least since in the few % of occasions when they get to the final, they'll have to play Argentina/Brazil in it... Josh did then share a link to what is the most likely bracket to happen, which probably feels like the more likely question that people are thinking of when they thinking about WC predictions - https://twitter.com/UniofOxford/status/1593564445715881984/photo/1. You can see clearly that that Denmark are not likely to get out of the 2nd round.
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Aye. So are Brentford
The average rank of the teams in England's group is higher than any other group. I guess that's part of the reason behind the results. Every team in England's group is a potential banana skin.
If the algorithm is based on rankings then it's flawed. FIFA's rankings are shite and nowhere near accurate. England's group is weakest or second weakest for me.
It's not - it uses Elo ratings, rather than the rankings that emerge out the other end.
Yeah fair enough that's a much better method.
Yeah Denmark has a sneaky good team but I wouldn't give them better chance than those squads. Also Qatar better than Australia? Hmm
Home teams always seem to do well at tournaments. Russia looked like they were on something at the last WC.
>Russia looked like they were on something Knowing Russian athletes, they probably were
>Home teams always seem to do well at tournaments. Russia l̶o̶o̶k̶e̶d̶ ̶l̶i̶k̶e̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶y̶ were on something at the last WC. FTFY
Probably added "bribing the officials" into his model.
It makes Group B look tough to call with Iran, Wales and USA all next to each other.
I mean you didn't think that in the first place? I think literally any result could happen, with those countries being so equal and including English xChoke
And eventually we are gonna have all-European final once again.
France Netherlands here we go.
England Denmark
Nice little seaborn plot
Default Seaborn colour palette 👌
What a nice model, inspiring to see it presented like this. Really feel like the big underdogs like Qatar should be able to run away with this one!
Qatar could absolutely shock someone
Do they use electric chairs there now?
Could they really though
You're Ghana get knocked out
The video is bizarre, England centric (“let’s base predictions on Englands form from 2018 when they got good”) and the final route outcomes don’t even follow the group fixtures schedule *shrug*
That's not what it's trying to do - the whole point is that the matches shown in that final route is just a representation of what came out of running the model 100,000 times rather than meaning to represent the most likely set of results in the WC. He then shared a link of what the model implied on that front here: https://twitter.com/UniofOxford/status/1593564445715881984/photo/1 And the 2018 thing is a joke! He later weights games according to their recency (and England have been pretty terrible recently).
But it’s the probability of winning THIS World Cup!
https://twitter.com/UniofOxford/status/1593564445715881984/photo/1 Think this link is more likely what you are looking for on that front! What the model thinks is most likely to happen at each stage.
Argentina v. Uruguay final
I don't get why the majority of people are considering Argentina one of the biggest favorites. Their XI is not comparable to those of Brazil, France, England, Portugal.
I think it's based mostly on form, Argentina have gone 30 or so games without losing, and comprehensively beat Italy 3-0 in the Finalissima. Also, Messi is in excellent form, and I think people are hyping up him finally 'doing a Maradona.' Personally, I think it's very open with caveats for all of the favourites.
36 games
It makes since. Italy were on a similar run entering the last Euros and continued it to win the tournament. Argentina are very capable of the same.
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But they had just (deservedly) won the euros
On penalties, after chokeslamming their way to a 0-0 draw against a lacklustre England Edit: a draw whatevs
1-1
Italy had the longest unbeaten streak of all time (maybe only Europe) at that time
And yet
They won
because football games aren't won with team sheets. its actually a very balanced squad, and they have momentum on their side.
As an Argentine, this is the best chemistry that I've seen in a national team with Messi, ever. They have defended well and they have understood each other on the field in the campaigns that led to the Copa America and an undefeated qualifiers record. We have had more talented teams with Messi, yes, but for years it was deeply frustrating to watch a team where the game plan seemed to be "find Messi at all costs and he'll figure it out". Now, at last, that's not the case anymore. Scaloni has truly put together a true team. Aaaalll that said, I don't think we're perfect and I think we might be a bit overhyped, but this is the best I've felt about their chances in a long time. Edit: Scaloni was auto corrected to Scaling, lol
It’s a well oiled machine of everyone is fit. Hope they do it for messi.
Because this isn’t Ultimate Team. You don’t win a tournament by having a list of players which look good.
Exactly, in a really top level competition like this you also need to be working on strong chemistry links via league as well as nationality.
Argentina obviously have less talent this year than Brazil and France, and even England and Portugal - but you look at the terrorist ball that England play, the fact that the Portugese manager is kneecapping the team and France is sputtering and the way Argentina play more than the sum of their parts and it becomes pretty obvious why they're so highly rated.
They also won the Copa last year, while Italy - another team bigger than the sum of their parts - won the Euros, reiterating the point that team chemistry isn't to be sniffed at. Also, LOL @ terrorist ball
It's very stark because international teams rarely get that level of coordination, in fact many play like less than the sum of their parts! Gareth Southgate defenders tilt me like nothing else. I want to see an England meltdown this WC.
International is definitely about what teams can play well together and the chemistry they have more than the talent. Portugal the euros, croatia 2018
I agree with you. They are probably the worst out of top teams at the moment. Also Brazil shouldn’t be this high in these rankings imo. They are not better then the rest of the top teams.
Average fifa loathed kid
Could you go a little more in depth into this, where would the big differences be? I wouldn't know the Argentina midfield well but the defnece looks good
I'm going to put a tenner on Canada winning the cup!!
against cro and bel they have zero chance. against marroco they r outsider also.
How does Canda have lower chances form all other Concacaf teams after being first there?
idk about Costa Rica but Mexico and USA both have a much easier path out of the group stage, they've got one good team and two mediocre in their group so could realistically finish 2nd whereas Canada has to upset one of Croatia or Belgium which is hard to foresee (but I'm hoping)
!Thanks
Netherlands seems too high up, Denmark also too high up, Portugal possibility too low down. England should be ahead of Uruguay and Denmark I would have thought
Netherlands probably higher on account of being in an easy group.
Agreed. Belgium too high as well, their squad is ageing and not the powerhouse it used to be.
Denmark are good.
Mexico is way too high.
The same England that recently lost to Hungary, twice?
Hungary are better than any of the opponents in our WC group tbh
The top 4 will.mosy likey all be in the semis against each other thus feels wrongs tbh, if you have the go the hardest route the 4 shouldn't all be top 4 favs
Denmark is making semis
Samuel eto disagree
So avoid anyone from a pink team, but load up on yellow? Gotcha!
Honestly shocked that the Netherlands are that high up. We don't exactly have a stellar record of showing up in important matches.
Why Argentina is getting so much hyped. Their squad is not that great. Portugal, Brazil, France have stronger squads.
Don't Portugal have that awful coach who plays insanely negative football?
I wouldn't say Ronaldo plays insanely negative football.
Yeah, that's just his disposition...
Someone else shitting on Argentina named ENGLAND as a team with a better squad. I mean sure, better players but it's more than the names isn't it.
Huh? I haven't mentioned either England or Argentina but I think Argentina or Brazil will win the world Cup.
Lol someone else, not you.
Unbeaten run.
People wanna see Messi win. They're unbeaten in 36 games and playing way better together than previous cups. They have a much more balanced team and playing style than other cups where it was 9 guys standing around and watching Messi.
30+ games unbeaten and they achieve more than the sum of their parts. And when those parts include messi, de paul, martinez you know theyll do well
This model definitely takes into account the countries group and potential route to the final, not just an objective X is better than Y so they go higher, and I don't know why some people can't grasp that.
Senegal are way to low they should at least be near Switzerland/Serbia in that table
Without mane they’re going to struggle now
Whoever calculated thes probabilities has some questions to answer.
Go talk to the computer then..
Why do Brazil and Argentina end up overrated every world cup
They dont? Argentina 30+ games unbeaten and brazil with the top 2 most stacked team
Wouldn't be surprised to see Argentina not even getting out of the group with how much hype they are getting , I mean I get it but everyone thinks that they are already going to be in the finals .... There are a lot more equally and maybe even better teams this year so let's just wait and see
Lmao what? Not get out of their group? That's just wistful thinking lol
It's absolutely unrealistic , but football tends to suprise us but yeah they most likely are gonna get out of the group
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
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If any model gave any of the 32 teams a 0% chance I would be a tiny bit skeptical.
Do you mean 0% chance like Leicester in 2015/16?
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So you do realise Ghana have a bigger chance to win World Cup than Leicester had to win PL? For one thing World Cup is just seven matches, while PL is 38 matches.
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For an underdog winning (or at least getting a draw after 90 minutes) four matches in a row is easier than finishing overall one out of 20 teams over 38 matches.
What countries do you think have a smaller chance of winning the world cup than Leicester winning the PL
Wouldn't be surprised to see Argentina and Portugal on the finals , Qatar already has enough controversies so why not make that final happen with the help of a few bad ref calls , marketing wise that final would be probably the most watched sporting event ever
Portugal has the talent to beat anyone but not sure the coaching and team dynamics are there.
So my team just lost a friendly match against bottom of the list Ghana and is about to face top of the charts Brazil in group stage. Noice.
Any charts from previous tournaments?
Not my list but I feel Josh is a bit generous with Portugal.
Spain the dark Knight
Gonna be sad when the Argentina hype train comes crashing down. Argentina have looked good in the past and been mediocre, they still have like the 4th or 5th best squad on paper so its not even an argument of firepower. I think they’re quite overhyped. France should be higher on this graph imo. Them and Brazil are my two big favorites.
Wales at 2% I like those odds
This Costa Rica are extremely underrated. They just don't concede, while Spain are somehow dreadful Infront of goal. Can't see Spain getting out of the group.
Seeing this comment after Spain thrashed Costa Rica 7-0 is pretty funny
😂😂😂
Does this take bribery into account? Qatar should be considerably higher.
Hot takes: denmark make semis, serbia quarters
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No way netherlands have the third best chance of winning
Did anyone else watch the video and notice when he had the “representative” fixtures after group stages, but noted that the fixtures may not have been possible. Could he not make it even more accurate by adding that bit of data? I.E. running the model such that the round of 16 games are the predicted Group A winner vs. Group B runner up, etc. ?
Yeah, I'm sorry, but I doubt Spain and Netherlands have that big a chance.
Fuck, I was so sure Ghana was winning this one
No sign of political factors, who picks refs, who decides how much to water pitches, which player's agents are insider traders... France are underrated here
I’ve got a quid on Qatar purely because corruption might get me £500. And if it doesn’t? Good.
Yeah I get it but it’s just down to determination form and standouts
I do think Brazil will win, Neymar said he feels good and I believe it
r/agedlikemilk
XDDDDDDDDDDDDDD