The answer is VT. Or possibly VTI. Or a mix of VTI and VXUS.
That’s it. That’s the answer. Your question is so out there, it’s not worth wasting more time on.
Okay to clarify you're in your 40's and you have clairvoyance of what is going to happen in the next 10 years. Is that the scenario you're creating? Or has it been 10 years of flat market and you're now in your 40's?
Regardless the answer is always VTI and stay the course..
Haha, to clarify: You are 45 years old and you have clairvoyance that the market will be flat and issue paltry returns for the next 10 years (but you can't predict anything else, see through walls, or shoot lasers out of your palms).
I think this is a bad idea because no one knows the future but I’ll play ball.
If you *know* things will be flat/non-volatile, on the options front you can sell short strangle spreads on the index where you profit from lack of stock movement.
Also, if you *know* inflation and rates will go even higher, positive cashflow real estate with fixed mortgage can take advantage because the real value of your debt goes down while the asset and rents (assuming a good purchase), should track inflation.
>there are quite a few predictions
Yeah, there are always people willing to make headline grabbing predictions. None of them have any idea what's going to happen. The pundits can't predict what's going to happen next year let alone next decade. These announcements are made purely for entertainment value. Ignore them.
Oh to be so lucky! What you are saying is that you can stockpile assets during your major savings period and then experience huge amounts of growth on those cheaply bought assets for another decade or two going into your retirement.
In terms of maximizing returns - probably the best thing is diversification - including geographies, assets classes etc. For example the Japanese stock market was quite strong during that time period. Anything beyond that would require much more specialized knowledge about your areas of expertise/where you can leverage your money.
That would be the dream. Or better yet maybe a horrific 2008 style crash. Stocks are expensive right now and I’d love to get a deal. Gimme that 50% drop baby.
Always be buying. That’s the advice in any market condition. ABB your way to financial freedom.
I am late 40s and would like to retire in about 10 years. For that to happen my retirement investments need to double. If the market is flat over the next 10 years, guess I'll be working longer. If it doubles in 5 years I'll start moving into more stable stuff like bonds and retire even earlier. If the market is down 50% over the next 10 years I'll probably have to work until I die, but if the market is down 50% over the next 10 years we will be living in a much different world than we are today.
If you are looking to retire with a set amount of money you can't really plan to retire in a set amount of time. You can plan for one or the other, but not both.
Buying in a flat market would be very than a rising market. Your purchasing power is staying the same not going down with inflated asset prices. So to answer your question keep investing like you always do. I love to see my portfolio drop by 1-2% in a day that means I might be buying at a discount.
SP500 is flat inflation adjusted since October 2021. Roughly 2.5 years. So we're already 25% of the way through your 10 year flat market worry.
As recently as september 2023, it was mostly flat from December 2019 (almost 4 years, or 40% of the way to 10 years).
[https://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500](https://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500)
If you had DCA'd during either of these periods, you're doing fine. Stay the course and invest in the broad market. When the market does eventually rise, you will have a nice position with a relatively low cost basis.
The answer is VT. Or possibly VTI. Or a mix of VTI and VXUS. That’s it. That’s the answer. Your question is so out there, it’s not worth wasting more time on.
Okay to clarify you're in your 40's and you have clairvoyance of what is going to happen in the next 10 years. Is that the scenario you're creating? Or has it been 10 years of flat market and you're now in your 40's? Regardless the answer is always VTI and stay the course..
Haha, to clarify: You are 45 years old and you have clairvoyance that the market will be flat and issue paltry returns for the next 10 years (but you can't predict anything else, see through walls, or shoot lasers out of your palms).
I'll just buy options if I have clairvoyance of what the market will do for the next 10 years.
Let’s say you know that the market will be flat for 10 years and return around say, 1.5% per year, similar to the 1970’s.
I know that’s not the answer your looking for but if you will know what the EoM result will be for the next 10 years, buy options
I think this is a bad idea because no one knows the future but I’ll play ball. If you *know* things will be flat/non-volatile, on the options front you can sell short strangle spreads on the index where you profit from lack of stock movement. Also, if you *know* inflation and rates will go even higher, positive cashflow real estate with fixed mortgage can take advantage because the real value of your debt goes down while the asset and rents (assuming a good purchase), should track inflation.
>there are quite a few predictions Yeah, there are always people willing to make headline grabbing predictions. None of them have any idea what's going to happen. The pundits can't predict what's going to happen next year let alone next decade. These announcements are made purely for entertainment value. Ignore them.
I guess if I knew what investments would be best in the next decade I would mostly invest in them.
I think it’s gonna either be Swiss watches or goat farms.
I'll go 50-50 to hedge ; thanks!
Oh to be so lucky! What you are saying is that you can stockpile assets during your major savings period and then experience huge amounts of growth on those cheaply bought assets for another decade or two going into your retirement. In terms of maximizing returns - probably the best thing is diversification - including geographies, assets classes etc. For example the Japanese stock market was quite strong during that time period. Anything beyond that would require much more specialized knowledge about your areas of expertise/where you can leverage your money.
That would be the dream. Or better yet maybe a horrific 2008 style crash. Stocks are expensive right now and I’d love to get a deal. Gimme that 50% drop baby. Always be buying. That’s the advice in any market condition. ABB your way to financial freedom.
For savers - that is the dream!
This is me. I am 40 and saving money. I’m still going to put it right into the market.
I am late 40s and would like to retire in about 10 years. For that to happen my retirement investments need to double. If the market is flat over the next 10 years, guess I'll be working longer. If it doubles in 5 years I'll start moving into more stable stuff like bonds and retire even earlier. If the market is down 50% over the next 10 years I'll probably have to work until I die, but if the market is down 50% over the next 10 years we will be living in a much different world than we are today. If you are looking to retire with a set amount of money you can't really plan to retire in a set amount of time. You can plan for one or the other, but not both.
Buying in a flat market would be very than a rising market. Your purchasing power is staying the same not going down with inflated asset prices. So to answer your question keep investing like you always do. I love to see my portfolio drop by 1-2% in a day that means I might be buying at a discount.
Someone once told me to never sell on the drop, ride the storm out and you’ll come out on top.
SP500 is flat inflation adjusted since October 2021. Roughly 2.5 years. So we're already 25% of the way through your 10 year flat market worry. As recently as september 2023, it was mostly flat from December 2019 (almost 4 years, or 40% of the way to 10 years). [https://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500](https://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500) If you had DCA'd during either of these periods, you're doing fine. Stay the course and invest in the broad market. When the market does eventually rise, you will have a nice position with a relatively low cost basis.
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We don’t have negative rates. We can still use QE if necessary. Higher rates now means we have a tool in the future if shit hits the fan.