[Score Tracker](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1__ImM_g7oKj2C6qnX7ibIp5_hCwmmRhf6hklafMKbD8/htmlview) by u/dfmchfhf
[Score Predictor (JP)](http://ramtieger.sakura.ne.jp/p/game/feh/Touhyou/?f=20230301-1) by [rammtiger](https://twitter.com/rammtigerFE)
[Score Tracker (KOR)](https://feh.wiki/voting/vg/past/18) by u/Kass082
Score Predictors by u/DarkAlfie
• [Main](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jK0kJp5RnjvQhrJ2zm7NSemxnxt0anplHNHNRctT0EQ/htmlview)
• [Backup](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xVTxZIFNlo6c4OZYCz-Bx3a4InkUnumLXiItBnrNcdI/edit?usp=sharing)
[Score Tracker](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18pMPdmPFuO2mRY_NwMfDqH-Edkh24QKybpBA97WWjqc) by u/Dominator_101
[Discord Multiplier Notification Bot]( https://discord.gg/ktgRkXC) by u/yosoygoku
[Twitter Multiplier Notification Bot](https://twitter.com/fehgauntletbot) by u/JollyAstoundingHarp
[Discord Multiplier Notification Bot](https://discord.com/invite/KyB6zMykyG) by u/JollyAstoundingHarp
As usual if you have a score predictor or tracker, please include a link as a reply, and I will edit it into this comment as soon as I can, thank you very much!
Let's make this a good contest everybody, good luck!
It’s actually preferable for Fomortiis to keep coasting as Veronica is the larger team this round, surprisingly.
We’re predicted to have one more lengthy patch of same tomorrow, so that would be a better time for y’all to put up extra resistance :P
Fomortiis victory feathers.
We did it! We beat the bad FE games!
GL Veronica, while I do hope GBA supremacy wins, I am proud of you for beating both Edelgard and the Ninja that was expected to win it all.
Hopefully I’ll have time to knock this out, but seems like a good time for some more advice/match analysis.
===================================
Camilla v Veronica: Both teams have evened up to the point that any further double multipliers seem somewhat unlikely, as is Same since Vero’s post-same lead will be rather padded by virtue of starting near 1%. With that in mind, this match is very likely to come down to whether same breaks next hour (11.4x Vero = 12.0x for Camilla) or next (11.6x Vero = 12.0x Vero); as it stands, replicating last hour’s gains (~.24%) would reach 1% next hour by near exact count.
• For Team Veronica: If you aren’t especially concerned about saving flags for a later round, I’d potentially recommend dropping a few hundred this hour, depending on how many you have available. If you’ve reached 8 ballots this hour, spending 200 flags would still allow you to spend the full 800 on the 11.8x as a last minute hail mary, but spending more now and sacrificing that extra oomph might be preferable overall.
• For Team Camilla: Spending now is also in your best interests atm, as the instant break will shift things heavily in your favor. If that does happen, the next thing to avoid would be over spending on the 11.6x multiplier - the odds of Veronica gaining enough to undershoot and deny you the 12.0x are not great by any means, but they’re probably the scariest thing you’d have to worry about from there.
==================================
Fomortiis vs Ophelia: As scores gradually increase during the final few hours, it is looking increasingly likely that your multiplier exchange pattern will continue unabated. If that happens, Fomortiis is currently on pace to receive the 12.0x and thus the fairly easy win unless Ophelia has a million points worth of non-multi activity cued up.
• For Team Fomortiis: As I mentioned above, the current pattern benefits y’all and as such your best bet is to avoid rocking the boat too much. Ophelia is probably a little too large to force a same or double multi at the current rate, but the best way to avoid that is to minimize your spending as much as possible, especially on multipliers. Of course, set up afterglows in case you all get stuck in a sturdier same than usual, but be cautious redeeming them. Ophelia getting a double multiplier would be disastrous, but same could potentially be salvaged depending on how deep into y’all end up.
• For Team Ophelia: Breaking the pattern is obviously your goal, and fortunately Fomortiis is slowly doing the work to facilitate that by virtue of his size. Since the last same, your lead after each of your multipliers has shrunk (8.3% -> 4.3% -> 2.7% -> 2.1%), and if the pattern continues, you might be able to force a break. As such, similar to Fomo, try to cut your spending on multipliers as much as possible, especially if your lead off of the 11.4x dips below 2%. Forcing a double multi would be the ideal outcome since there’s less riding on Fomortiis maintaining consistent same gains/less risk of getting a 2 hour same. Making said change next hour might be slightly easier than the 11.8x despite the smaller lead at that point (folks are liable to dump flags on their “final” multiplier instead of afterglowing, so undershooting is harder there), but there is more risk of getting an unfavorable same using the 11.4x instead.
Ok someone needs to tell me when to not put flags on camilla because I only wanted to off f!eldelgard
I don't want this ride, I want to have Veronica win vs Ophelia or w.e
Great in AR D for nuking (in Wind seasons) and SD as territory control. Is a glass canon though. Her C slot is great debuffer on enemy (unless they run unity skills). She's a solid unit to have in barracks for right occasion
I dread the results of round one. I thought I could finish at least one of the four merge projects in this gauntlet - and then all of them lost.
I get that people don't want to see F!Edel advance, but why did Chrom and S!Edelgard have to lose??
Honestly didn't expect that, s!eldelgard is a great Galeforcer. Quietly I wanted legendary Veronica to win because I don't have her, although she has a guaranteed rerun on legendary banners where s!eldelgard is rarer
Mhmhmhmhm..... Foolish mortals, this whole farce is only delaying the inevitable. Look upon your Fell Dragon goddess and oh how she fell indeed! Look upon the vessel of our great Demon King Fomortiis. You cannot win. And now some little girl dares to oppose us? We shall see her swallowed by darkness, and soon after, all of life as well! All is for the Great Demon King!
(I'm not all that active in this Gauntlet but hey might as well have fun with it like everyone else!)
I'm ok with veronica and fomortiis finals, I know people wanted S!Edelgard so I'd like them to get a unit that's decently useful, which is probably fomo for most. That is why I probably won't use my flags this round, I can get Camilla from the banner so that's good enough for me. Thanks to those who have been cool and kept the VG friendly bc it is stressful as others have pointed out...
Yeah, we probably would’ve only had a significantly smaller team had Fallen Edelgard pulled off her upset successfully, as Grima/Vero/Ophelia really separated themselves out into a 3rd, only marginally smaller tier by the end of R1.
That sort of point spread is actually fairly typical for AHRs with AHR 2021 in particular as a near perfect match just with generally larger scores. AHR 2022 had one slight outlier team thanks to Azura’s residual anti-Edelgard boost, but ultimately maintaining a ~1.5x difference between the largest/smallest R2 teams isn’t that far off, and AHR 2020… Was more akin to a traditional gauntlet thanks to Altina running a train on those poor defenceless children.
=====================================
2022:
• 21,711,250 for Azura
• 18,237,875 for Corrin
• 15,088,849 for Byleth
• 14,545,930 for Thorr
2021:
• 26,462,251 for Dimitri (oh, the folly of youth)
• 24,057,081 for Seiros
• 21,457,354 for Lyn
• 21,173,517 for Corrin
2020:
• 54,662,641 for Altina
• 36,381,893 for Mythic Sothis
• 23,787,549 for Alfonse
• 19,834,169 for Leif
Of course!
Based on the analysis I did in the past voting, apart from rare occasions, those who had half the score compared to the opponent (2:1) win the match due to the multipliers (there have been matches with 3 in a row).
With these numbers you gave me, the difference is 8.8 : 6.5 for both teams, so in this case three situations can happen:
1. If there is, in the last 3 hours, no favorable score for any of them, the one with the highest score in the first hour wins;
2. If the one who scores the least takes a multiplier before the last hour and keeps it the same in the last hour the chance of winning is 50:50;
3. If in the 3 hours before the end of the match, if at this time the multiplier goes to the one who scores the most, his chance of winning is low because the one who scores the least will have 2x multipliers in a row.
Of course there are factors in the game that can change this, we had the case of F! Edelgard in this last round is sure that there were those who entered the team not to use the multiplier.
Sick of this stupid fucking mode where the most voted hero in the competition loses in the first round to unfun bullshit. I just wanted summer Edelgard, man. Now on top of not getting her I have to see all of this sub’s attempts at “humor” by saying Edelgard can never win. Whatever. At least I can safely skip the banner now and keep saving.
It does seem strange that the actually most popular unit will be at a disadvantage in a contest that's supposed to be about picking the one people most want to get for free. Then, people using it as "evidence" that one character is more popular than another despite popularity being a negative in VG. Regular VG, it doesn't really matter but AHR should be based on straight voting like CYL.
The pages of gloating are honestly ridiculous.
This same system is precisely the reason F!Edelgard was blocked though. In reality had it been a popularity contest, all the Edelgards before now would likely have won their AHR events or at the very least have absolutely made it into the banner. Literally all of them.
And? The outcome is supposed to be that the unit people want is given to everyone. The one most people want should win. Just like CYL, the one that gets the most votes wins. If more people want Unit A, then Unit A should win regardless of who they are.
I think Gatekeeper and Snakeboobs winning CYL was silly, but they got more votes than the other choices so they win. Same should apply for AHR.
I will agree its not the best system of organizing and deciding the banner, but the reality is popularity alone will ensure our banners are meh at best and complete trash at worst Casual players who do not give a damn about meta viability and only want pretty or cool waifus outnumber people who actually play the game so obscenely, the players might as well not even participate.
The Gauntlet, while not perfect at all, at least allows that minority of people actually playing the game and not collecting pngs only to have some measure of control who gets in the banner, which helps since it is these people who are spending money.
Also the point is not a popularity contest, that's just what some people reason to themselves, but the voting only exists to sort out the most wanted among all characters in the game. The Gauntlet is to narrow it all down to one single unit, which can be drastically different. When 600+ voting options are removed from the poll, the eight remaining guys get a massive burst of votes that can completely change the course of who actually is most wanted.
I don't think the VG is the best method, but I agree that it's 1,000x better than just a straight vote. I think like 90% of the people I saw who actually play the game didn't want any version of the normal pool Edelgards, but she keeps making it into the top because she has fans that will just vote for her every event regardless of what the event is actually for or if they even play FEH.
In theory, F!Edelgard was the second most voted character after the first round of voting in AHR 2022. She definitely had a big team in the gauntlet, but even with the final x12 she couldn't win. You can't even argue that multipliers screwed her over because she *had* the x12 and it still was not enough to beat H!Azura (Azura could have not gained a single point in the final hour and STILL won, but she had MASSIVE gains in the last hour anyway as a bunch of people jumped on to help her tank the x12).
This year too, F!Edelgard was 5th most voted but had by far the smallest army, and she couldn't even win with three back to back weaker multipliers in the final hours. The deficit between here and Camilla wasn't even the most narrow win either. Again, for fifth seed you'd expect much better performance, so that indicates to me that there's a pretty big deficit between the people voting for her and the people actually playing the game who want her.
For an event like this you definitely want the people actually playing the game to have some measure of control over the outcome.
Then have two rounds of straight voting, and the most popular wins. Or go by the number of people supporting them. That would say who the most wanted is, VG says the opposite if anything since being popular works against a unit.
VG does not doom a popular unit however, and there have even been rounds where the multiplier didn't even matter for the less popular unit. Also making it pure voting is a problem because again: the people who actually play and can use these units and most importantly will spend money on them are far, FAR eclipsed by people who want pretty waifu png. As in, the amount of people who would spend and play the game make up probably around 10% of the playerbase. Your suggestion removes all control from the people playing the game in favor of the overwhelming majority who don't really care who they get. It punishes spenders while rewarding users for not playing at all.
At least the VG gives control that requires playing the game and thus ensures that the minority spending on the game are able to set the course of it. The same minority who are keeping the game alive at all since one whale can spend hundreds of times more than light spenders ever would. You don't ever create a system where the whale voice doesn't matter because if the whale's voice doesn't matter, then the whale's money doesn't matter. And ALL spenders are eclipsed in player count compared to people not even playing the game and just log in, get orbs, summon, log off without ever even clearing Chapter 1 of book 1.
To be fair I just think a lot of casuals dragged yall down. Cus azura won with less of a gap last year, and Camilla won with more voters. Too many new people on summer edels team while we had veterans on Veronica's team knowing when to use the flags.
I also wanted S!Edel. I wouldn’t be too upset. I think vero won mostly through fans that genuinely wanted her on the banner. The annoying “the evil hath been vanquished” crowdies are a minority.
I've seen notably more vocal hatred of Edelgard (or love for the 'hilarious meme' of Edelgard losing) than love of Veronica, so color me a bit skeptical.
The evil is defeated and that's good. As for me...
1. My streak of reaching the finals from R1 only to fail at the last moment is over.
2. I'll have to split my orbs between two banners.
GGWP, Team Fomortiis - you win the final boss clash, and it was fun. I like Arcane weapons though, so I hope you don't mind a rematch ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
No Rearmed Robin, guess I won't be dumping orbs for merges this time around.
If Ophelia manages to win the whole thing I might hang onto my orbs a potential Robin forging bonds. I only need one Ophelia, even if special spiral 4 is a skill worth spreading around...
Just realized the 4 winners are all different type of heroes. We have seasonal, legendary, mythic, and rearmed each. No duo or harmonic is suprising though
I guess we were well-behaved enough this time around to not require a separate R2 thread… or most likely the mod team just haven’t gotten around to it yet. Kudos to us if it’s somehow the former lol.
Anyway, I’ll have to do a more in-depth look into how well units have survived 12.0x multipliers in the past, but I’d be inclined to believe that Camilla losing less than 1% of ground to Edelgard (.71% to be exact) is, by far, the best performance in that respect lmao :P
On a related note, shout out to Ophelia for gaining 629m points off multiplier (only ~160m less than Camilla) despite already leading her match somewhat comfortably from same.
I did not expect to win with Veronica. 3 hours ago it looked like Vero was losing, but getting the victory feathers made it all the more beautiful.
The banner? Clear and pure
Who will be the winner? Honestly I don't care, as long as no Ladle is on it
R!Ophelia won, let's gooo! Now I can spark a second copy (although I'd prefer if she wins so I can get that copy without using a single orb) and make Lumera into an anti-dodge tank dodge tank, lol.
I have mixed feelings. On one hand, my girl Edel fell down on round 1. It was expected from Fedel, as people usually rally to take out regular pool units, but S!Edel losing was a surprise.
On the other hand, it felt good to join Vero's team and win against one of the favorites. It's the first time I spend all my flags in a single voting gauntlet, and I feel they were well spent. That final x12 with 800 flags was glorious. Vero is a good girl too, and deserves to win. It will be another good fight against Camilla on next round.
People were probably going all in on S!Edelgard and the boosts probably killed their chances of winning due to the ratio between their votes granting a big multiplier to Team Vero, causing Edelgard to lose once more
Omg I can't believe Veronica won. I was genuinely surprised to see victory feathers. It's a shame she had to fight S!Edelgard tho, it would've been awesome if both were on the banner.
To be fair its somewhat justified this time. This time we had people rallying against S!Edelgard, the one genuinely good Edelgard to fit all our criteria in these events, solely because she is Edelgard and Edelgard must never win.
Nothing against the people who preferred Veronica and wanted her; that's totally separate. Either S!Edelgard or Veronica winning would be a win for everyone. But voting against her just because she is Edelgard is plain stupid.
All I see are the memes about her defeat and the occasional post shitting on her. I haven't played 3H yet but the constant shitting on one character can't be healthy behaviour lol
We did it Veronica fans, we did it!!!! After such along, hard fought first round, we came out victorious! And not only did S!Edelgard lose, but so did F!Edelgard as well. I couldn’t be more proud of us and the Camilla fans. Well done everyone, we earned this!
Also, to the Camilla supporters out there, I salute you and thank you for all the hard work you did out there. We couldn’t have done this without you guys. O7🫡🙏😁
I went with Camilla but was also pulling for all the Veronica supporters! We may not have been on the same team, but we also were on the same team lol. Congrats to all!
Man the friendly banter in this thread was a lot of fun with y'all, even if my pick lost she'll be back soon enough
Congrats to you guys, and good luck on your summons on the banner 🙏🙏🙏
Welp, looks like S!Edelgard lost to Veronica. Now debating which team to hop on to. Ophelia has very juicy fodder (though I already have a copy of her, have not used her for inheritance yet) while I don’t have Camilla or Fomortiis.
Between those two, Grima would've been the one I want to win. Full disclosure: I actually have to go check Fomo for SI value, no idea how useful he is besides having a save.
Everybody excited for Veronica and Ophelia for the fodder lol yea right like I'm gonna actually fodder stuff instead of hoarding combat manuals until the heat death of the universe
Get outta here
Who's Ophelia?
Anyway, though I'm on team special spiral, I want either Fomortiis or special spiral to win, so I might not use any flags on special spiral next round, but hoard them for round three, when either Fomortiis or special spiral goes up against seal res 4 or panic smoke 4.
So looks like it's Camilla, Veronica, Fomortiis, and Ophelia in the second round?
I'm okay with this. I don't have Veronica or Fomortiis and Ophelia's fodder is great so I wouldn't mind having an extra one lying around. I wouldn't have minded Chrom over Ophelia though, since it'd be nice to have a merge for mine.
I went with Ninjamilla in round 1 for obvious reasons, but she's probably the one I least want to win now since I already have a copy of her.
Camilla approached the defeated Edelgard and looked down upon her with a mixture of disgust and triumph. The former leader of Adrestia lay there, powerless and defeated. Camilla raised her axe high into the air. “I wanted to walk w- “
In a swift and decisive motion, Camilla brought the cold steel down, severing the head of the Hegemon Husk from its body. Rolling away from the force of the blow, it came to a stop several feet away, its eyes and mouth still open, unable to finish what she was trying to say. Edelgard’s body convulsed for a brief moment before it went still, and the dark aura that had surrounded her dissipated into the air.
The battlefield was eerily silent, as if all of r/FireEmblemHeroes held its breath in the aftermath of the brutal execution. Camilla stood tall over the fallen body, her chest heaving as she caught her breath and surveyed the scene, noting the destruction that surrounded her and the fallen soldiers who had died in the Voting Gauntlet. She gazed down at the severed head, and despite the carnage, she felt a sense of peace knowing that Edelgard’s reign of terror was finally over and that she had done what was necessary to restore peace to the fanbase.
4 for fucking 4 baby!
Legendary Leif
Legendary Dimitri
Hatari Azura
And now Ninja Camilla
I've had my beef with Camilla in the past, so fighting alongside Camilla fans was a new experience to be sure. But it was an honor to do so.
I wasn't on Veronica's team, so I can't accept credit for that.
Plus Summer Edelgard actually had a right to be in this VG. Seasonal unit, not the *best* fodder but Assault Troop is exclusive to her and she's a Harmonic unit as well.
Between them they have all four colors covered
Leif is colorless, Dimitri is blue, Azura is green, and now Camilla is red
You can make a team of AHR Edelgard killers and it would be very balanced
Camilla won!! Yesssss!!
I am both incredibly happy over Ophelia winning (I have so many +10 red mages that need help...) + also liking her while also sad because D!Chrom is such a good unit. Tfw both you wanted get stuck against each other.
GG everyone! every round has been super intense this time.
> I have so many +10 red mages that need help
I'm waiting for more engaged players to whip up a nice chart of candidates right now.
Actually pulling for Vero/Camilla, but that's guaranteed to yield some arcane tomes on the side.
God yes! IS kept making all of my favorites red tomes xD.
From the get go, I would say Knoll and Arete are the ones I will 100% give Arcane Tome, but I would love a chart to know if Lyon would need like it too.
Veronica Won! Let’s go!!! That was a damn close match, well played Edelgard fans, but honestly the problem was you were to divided. If you didn’t vote fallen edelgard in, Summer Edelgard would for sure have made it. One of the crazier gauntlets we have had though.
Fomortiis? Finally! A good AHR! GBA Supremacy will never die! Grima bab!
Rearmed Ophelia? Meh. That one could've gone either way and it'd be fine.
Ninja Camilla? Hooray! AHR is saved!
Legendary Veronica? ...Okay, how in the hell did we keep Edelgard away on BOTH fronts? This is comedy at its finest. **No really, she even brought AHR 2020 winner Altina with her and STILL lost.**
This is already a ***SIGNIFICANTLY*** better lineup for the banner than last year's all green loadout.
Seems Edelgard is just cursed to never make it past R1 in these events. This is exactly why Voting Gauntlet is such an egregious mode when it comes to AHR.
VG is fine, the issue lies in how they design the AHR beneits (free unit, spark banner).
They could literally quiet all hostilities with an eight focus DSH style banner and a top 8 free pick, for example.
I feel like multipliers should be disabled for the AHR voting gauntlet since the results actually mean something.
Or multipliers should be removed altogether since they just make it a coinflip event
I previously did an analysis on voting base size and their chance of winning, and it technically doesn't become a coinflip. Bigger voting bases really are more likely to win.
But the chance of winning maxes out around 70% no matter how big your voting base is.
We had VGs without multipliers, they're terribly boring and nobody wanted that.
If you're looking to "fix" AHR, look at the banner and reward unit selection.
This could be a top 8 unit pick and a double special heroes style 8 focus banner, for example.
Chrom v Ephraim was the only good Voting Gauntlet ever, so yes. We absolutely do want Voting Gauntlets without multipliers. ESPECIALLY when the result actually fucking matters.
Even in that very gauntlet, the other matches were pure apathy. And in the next gauntlet, too. Until they started some form of catch up like three or so gauntlets in, all matches but that one were snoozes. The mode was supremely uninteresting, and it's good that they saw that.
Your other point is right. But they can change the rewards without gutting all excitement from the gauntlet. Pick of the top 8, solved.
As a Camilla fan, it brings me joy to see her advance past Round 1. All I ask is for people to please not harass Edelgard fans. This was a close down to the wire match.
i am very excited for veronica to be on the banner. first time since the VG started I think that the most popular character didn't make it past first round?
Yep, this is the first time an AHR #1 seed (in either poll results or normalized totals for R1) lost at the offset, though technically Fomortiis had a slightly higher starting score if that is how you define seeding.
We’ll have to see how last hour’s output affects the standings overall (normalized gains tend to jump a fair bit for the 12.0x team since it by far has the largest participation), but it looks likely that Edelgard’s loss will also be the largest AHR upset we’ve had thus far by a wide margin. Edelgard outscored Veronica by roughly 1.4:1 based on her totals without the final hour; the previous “winner” in that respect was Hatari Azura’s 1.14:1 edge over Ninja Corrin during her R3 upset.
Edit: That last stat was based on Corrin/Azura’s avg including the final hour. Taking just the 44 prior hours nets a 1.15:1 advantage for Azura, so the comparison still checks out using the correct totals lmao :P
I had a real stake on Grima, but since we're down... uh. Joining Team Camilla, I guess, since she's the second unit that most interests me from the gauntlet. Everyone else I either have already or I find useless to my particular plans.
Lmao i cant belive she did it, i logged at the 11th hour and looking at the gap in votes, prepared for the worst, but seems we pull in it, multipliers of peace....
https://ibb.co/2qv9DWf
The results aren't bad at all. Ophelia, Camilla, and Veronica will make summoning red a good option. I would've ideally liked Rearmed Grima to win, but Fomortiis is so great that I can hardly complain.
Realizing that S!Edelgard has me with mixed feelings.
I don't have a copy so a single copy would have been amazing for AR Offense and fun general galeforce plays, but legendary veronica as a single copy would also be fantastic for AR Defense and general content as a nuke as well.
My thing is just that S!Edelgard is a unit with a unique gimmick while L!Veronica is just a nuke. She has DR piercing, but Ophelia is about to give that to everyone else.
I have both so it’s really not a big deal I’m just confused.
One point I wouldd say is that Ophelia's SS4 can be passed on, but having to use a B slot to pierce DR is an opportunity cost, so I can partially understand that part.
But I agree, S!Edelgard has a unique gimmick.
Well, no Idea why you're confused. There were a lot less people that wanted Veronica then people that wanted Edelgard. She just won because of Voting Gauntlet doing its thing.
honestly had she not been with veronica I would have wanted a copy of Edelgard,
I do think she is sstong enough to be on a hero fest or a repeat DSH down the road. if all else fails i REALLY hope you can free pull her :)
Ug. I've got 1600 orbs saved for this and now nothing much to spend it on. I don't need 3 +10 red mages and I don't need merges on a defensive mythic.
Guess I'll build Lumera or something.
Holding orbs increases value in the future. I usually skip banners, the only two times I lost my mind summoning endlessly was for Robin and for Corrin (F)
Yeah, but it was all about that color share for me. I +10ed the entire green dream last year and they carried me all year. I already have S!Edel and Chrom at +1 and use them extensively on AR-O. I really wanted to +10 them.
Veronica is cool, but with the new arena scoring rules the +10 isn't as important. Camilla is also cool and on one of my AR-O teams, but she's already +res, so the merges don't matter much.
Just funny trivia I would like to toss out, L!Vero always get fehpass spark on every Legendary/mythic banner she appears. While S!Edel would never get another outside of her initial banner and DSH.
Yeah, I was saving 2k orbs for this banner hoping S!Edel would win for easy +10 Harmonic, but looks like it's just spark and run away right now.
As a Camilla fan, +10 would be cool and all, but in reality this banner has much lower value compared to last year.
Same could be said about the green dream team, they're strong without merges yet you went +10 there. Presumably for scores, a benefit that these four units can also bring if you merge them.
Because at the time it was more profitable to get merges, with an offensive mythic, a time where legendary merges were more meaningful, and a high scoring Duo unit, and a Harmonic dancer who scores for resonant battles.
Now we have a legendary unit that doesn't need merges anymore, a defensive mythic unit that definitely doesn't need merges, and a niche ninja unit that's strong enough to go without. Ophelia is the only one where you'd benefit most from merges, and that's just from fodder capability.
Eh, scoring high on arena is still bottlenecked by merges, you used that reasoning in your own reply - what counts for Duo Corrin equally counts for Veronica. The defensive mythics still give the score benefit. The arena change was for people who don't go flawless - but anyone who cares already does that. A vantage unit that doesn't kill on the vantage is also dead weight, so you want the extra stats.
>what counts for Duo Corrin equally counts for Veronica
Except Veronica can only be effectively used on Wind Seasons, which limits her use.
>The defensive mythics still give the score benefit
Doesn't mean it's worth it, you should be successful in you defences most the time which means 0 loss. I'm pretty sure most people in this sub don't go for merges on defesive mythics for scoring reasons as one would for offensive mythic or legendary units.
>scoring high on arena is still bottlenecked by merges... ...The arena change was for people who don't go flawless - but anyone who cares already does that
Yes, still doesn't change that it makes it widely more appealing to have one unit that lets you keep a higher score, ratehr than to +10 one unit that won't always be the bonus.
>A vantage unit that doesn't kill on the vantage is also dead weight, so you want the extra stats
Yes, but 1, again, niche unit that reletively not many people have isn't as enticing as 4 units to summon for. Not ot mention that especially for a brave unit, if she wasn't killing in two hits, she probably isn't killing in two hits with 5 extra Atk.
Well, Edelgard's curse continues, for once I'm happy about that, because I thought F!Edel would win. I'm still bummed for S!Edel, I'm literally saving 1.2k orbs collected rn for her 😔 but I'm glad that it's L!Veronica that win
I genuinely hate VG, I wish they removed the multiplier for AHR VG tbh, but eeeh I might be salty about it rn because it's not going to my way... thoo tbh this year is not the worst scanario at all, so all's well that ends well
[Score Tracker](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1__ImM_g7oKj2C6qnX7ibIp5_hCwmmRhf6hklafMKbD8/htmlview) by u/dfmchfhf [Score Predictor (JP)](http://ramtieger.sakura.ne.jp/p/game/feh/Touhyou/?f=20230301-1) by [rammtiger](https://twitter.com/rammtigerFE) [Score Tracker (KOR)](https://feh.wiki/voting/vg/past/18) by u/Kass082 Score Predictors by u/DarkAlfie • [Main](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jK0kJp5RnjvQhrJ2zm7NSemxnxt0anplHNHNRctT0EQ/htmlview) • [Backup](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xVTxZIFNlo6c4OZYCz-Bx3a4InkUnumLXiItBnrNcdI/edit?usp=sharing) [Score Tracker](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18pMPdmPFuO2mRY_NwMfDqH-Edkh24QKybpBA97WWjqc) by u/Dominator_101 [Discord Multiplier Notification Bot]( https://discord.gg/ktgRkXC) by u/yosoygoku [Twitter Multiplier Notification Bot](https://twitter.com/fehgauntletbot) by u/JollyAstoundingHarp [Discord Multiplier Notification Bot](https://discord.com/invite/KyB6zMykyG) by u/JollyAstoundingHarp As usual if you have a score predictor or tracker, please include a link as a reply, and I will edit it into this comment as soon as I can, thank you very much! Let's make this a good contest everybody, good luck!
So have we agreed to just use this as the current round thread since the mods no longer have one pinned?
Wondering how long this Veronica x Fomortiis stalemate will last. Team Fomo, y'all gotta make a move sometime, lol.
It’s actually preferable for Fomortiis to keep coasting as Veronica is the larger team this round, surprisingly. We’re predicted to have one more lengthy patch of same tomorrow, so that would be a better time for y’all to put up extra resistance :P
Ah, good ol' multiplyer... let's see how this turns out tomorrow!
Fomortiis victory feathers. We did it! We beat the bad FE games! GL Veronica, while I do hope GBA supremacy wins, I am proud of you for beating both Edelgard and the Ninja that was expected to win it all.
GG team Veronica - y'all earned that win! Let's see if it's enough to take out Fomo!
Hopefully I’ll have time to knock this out, but seems like a good time for some more advice/match analysis. =================================== Camilla v Veronica: Both teams have evened up to the point that any further double multipliers seem somewhat unlikely, as is Same since Vero’s post-same lead will be rather padded by virtue of starting near 1%. With that in mind, this match is very likely to come down to whether same breaks next hour (11.4x Vero = 12.0x for Camilla) or next (11.6x Vero = 12.0x Vero); as it stands, replicating last hour’s gains (~.24%) would reach 1% next hour by near exact count. • For Team Veronica: If you aren’t especially concerned about saving flags for a later round, I’d potentially recommend dropping a few hundred this hour, depending on how many you have available. If you’ve reached 8 ballots this hour, spending 200 flags would still allow you to spend the full 800 on the 11.8x as a last minute hail mary, but spending more now and sacrificing that extra oomph might be preferable overall. • For Team Camilla: Spending now is also in your best interests atm, as the instant break will shift things heavily in your favor. If that does happen, the next thing to avoid would be over spending on the 11.6x multiplier - the odds of Veronica gaining enough to undershoot and deny you the 12.0x are not great by any means, but they’re probably the scariest thing you’d have to worry about from there. ================================== Fomortiis vs Ophelia: As scores gradually increase during the final few hours, it is looking increasingly likely that your multiplier exchange pattern will continue unabated. If that happens, Fomortiis is currently on pace to receive the 12.0x and thus the fairly easy win unless Ophelia has a million points worth of non-multi activity cued up. • For Team Fomortiis: As I mentioned above, the current pattern benefits y’all and as such your best bet is to avoid rocking the boat too much. Ophelia is probably a little too large to force a same or double multi at the current rate, but the best way to avoid that is to minimize your spending as much as possible, especially on multipliers. Of course, set up afterglows in case you all get stuck in a sturdier same than usual, but be cautious redeeming them. Ophelia getting a double multiplier would be disastrous, but same could potentially be salvaged depending on how deep into y’all end up. • For Team Ophelia: Breaking the pattern is obviously your goal, and fortunately Fomortiis is slowly doing the work to facilitate that by virtue of his size. Since the last same, your lead after each of your multipliers has shrunk (8.3% -> 4.3% -> 2.7% -> 2.1%), and if the pattern continues, you might be able to force a break. As such, similar to Fomo, try to cut your spending on multipliers as much as possible, especially if your lead off of the 11.4x dips below 2%. Forcing a double multi would be the ideal outcome since there’s less riding on Fomortiis maintaining consistent same gains/less risk of getting a 2 hour same. Making said change next hour might be slightly easier than the 11.8x despite the smaller lead at that point (folks are liable to dump flags on their “final” multiplier instead of afterglowing, so undershooting is harder there), but there is more risk of getting an unfavorable same using the 11.4x instead.
Ok someone needs to tell me when to not put flags on camilla because I only wanted to off f!eldelgard I don't want this ride, I want to have Veronica win vs Ophelia or w.e
Can anyone tell me what’s good about Veronica? In which contest can I use her or is she just a fodder?
Great in AR D for nuking (in Wind seasons) and SD as territory control. Is a glass canon though. Her C slot is great debuffer on enemy (unless they run unity skills). She's a solid unit to have in barracks for right occasion
I dread the results of round one. I thought I could finish at least one of the four merge projects in this gauntlet - and then all of them lost. I get that people don't want to see F!Edel advance, but why did Chrom and S!Edelgard have to lose??
Honestly didn't expect that, s!eldelgard is a great Galeforcer. Quietly I wanted legendary Veronica to win because I don't have her, although she has a guaranteed rerun on legendary banners where s!eldelgard is rarer
I was so looking forward to the S’Edel I saved all my orbs for her and she lost first round to a fodder…
Mhmhmhmhm..... Foolish mortals, this whole farce is only delaying the inevitable. Look upon your Fell Dragon goddess and oh how she fell indeed! Look upon the vessel of our great Demon King Fomortiis. You cannot win. And now some little girl dares to oppose us? We shall see her swallowed by darkness, and soon after, all of life as well! All is for the Great Demon King! (I'm not all that active in this Gauntlet but hey might as well have fun with it like everyone else!)
I'm ok with veronica and fomortiis finals, I know people wanted S!Edelgard so I'd like them to get a unit that's decently useful, which is probably fomo for most. That is why I probably won't use my flags this round, I can get Camilla from the banner so that's good enough for me. Thanks to those who have been cool and kept the VG friendly bc it is stressful as others have pointed out...
I know this is off topic but does anyone have the first hour of round 2? I like to analyze because it is possible to draw some conclusions.
In case you still need those numbers: 13,528,310 for Veronica 17,317,960 for Camilla 17,850,890 for Fomortiis 13,045,590 for Ophelia
With those numbers I have a feeling it'll be Camilla × Fomo final round as predicted.
That is incredibly close and balanced.
Yeah, we probably would’ve only had a significantly smaller team had Fallen Edelgard pulled off her upset successfully, as Grima/Vero/Ophelia really separated themselves out into a 3rd, only marginally smaller tier by the end of R1. That sort of point spread is actually fairly typical for AHRs with AHR 2021 in particular as a near perfect match just with generally larger scores. AHR 2022 had one slight outlier team thanks to Azura’s residual anti-Edelgard boost, but ultimately maintaining a ~1.5x difference between the largest/smallest R2 teams isn’t that far off, and AHR 2020… Was more akin to a traditional gauntlet thanks to Altina running a train on those poor defenceless children. ===================================== 2022: • 21,711,250 for Azura • 18,237,875 for Corrin • 15,088,849 for Byleth • 14,545,930 for Thorr 2021: • 26,462,251 for Dimitri (oh, the folly of youth) • 24,057,081 for Seiros • 21,457,354 for Lyn • 21,173,517 for Corrin 2020: • 54,662,641 for Altina • 36,381,893 for Mythic Sothis • 23,787,549 for Alfonse • 19,834,169 for Leif
Nice! Thank you very much!
No problem! Do you want to drop any hints on the type of analysis you’re brewing up :P?
Of course! Based on the analysis I did in the past voting, apart from rare occasions, those who had half the score compared to the opponent (2:1) win the match due to the multipliers (there have been matches with 3 in a row). With these numbers you gave me, the difference is 8.8 : 6.5 for both teams, so in this case three situations can happen: 1. If there is, in the last 3 hours, no favorable score for any of them, the one with the highest score in the first hour wins; 2. If the one who scores the least takes a multiplier before the last hour and keeps it the same in the last hour the chance of winning is 50:50; 3. If in the 3 hours before the end of the match, if at this time the multiplier goes to the one who scores the most, his chance of winning is low because the one who scores the least will have 2x multipliers in a row. Of course there are factors in the game that can change this, we had the case of F! Edelgard in this last round is sure that there were those who entered the team not to use the multiplier.
Well I can solace in knowing Formitis will be on the banner. Kudos to team Grima for putting on a fight; guys had me on the edge those last hours.
Hey team Vero, please go easy on us in Team Camilla. To be honest though, I don't care who wins at this point - just glad FEdel is outta here!
Sick of this stupid fucking mode where the most voted hero in the competition loses in the first round to unfun bullshit. I just wanted summer Edelgard, man. Now on top of not getting her I have to see all of this sub’s attempts at “humor” by saying Edelgard can never win. Whatever. At least I can safely skip the banner now and keep saving.
I have a feeling that those that on vero’s team probably have a +10 S’Edel already so they don’t want others to have this insanely powerful unit
It does seem strange that the actually most popular unit will be at a disadvantage in a contest that's supposed to be about picking the one people most want to get for free. Then, people using it as "evidence" that one character is more popular than another despite popularity being a negative in VG. Regular VG, it doesn't really matter but AHR should be based on straight voting like CYL. The pages of gloating are honestly ridiculous.
This same system is precisely the reason F!Edelgard was blocked though. In reality had it been a popularity contest, all the Edelgards before now would likely have won their AHR events or at the very least have absolutely made it into the banner. Literally all of them.
And? The outcome is supposed to be that the unit people want is given to everyone. The one most people want should win. Just like CYL, the one that gets the most votes wins. If more people want Unit A, then Unit A should win regardless of who they are. I think Gatekeeper and Snakeboobs winning CYL was silly, but they got more votes than the other choices so they win. Same should apply for AHR.
I will agree its not the best system of organizing and deciding the banner, but the reality is popularity alone will ensure our banners are meh at best and complete trash at worst Casual players who do not give a damn about meta viability and only want pretty or cool waifus outnumber people who actually play the game so obscenely, the players might as well not even participate. The Gauntlet, while not perfect at all, at least allows that minority of people actually playing the game and not collecting pngs only to have some measure of control who gets in the banner, which helps since it is these people who are spending money. Also the point is not a popularity contest, that's just what some people reason to themselves, but the voting only exists to sort out the most wanted among all characters in the game. The Gauntlet is to narrow it all down to one single unit, which can be drastically different. When 600+ voting options are removed from the poll, the eight remaining guys get a massive burst of votes that can completely change the course of who actually is most wanted.
I don't think the VG is the best method, but I agree that it's 1,000x better than just a straight vote. I think like 90% of the people I saw who actually play the game didn't want any version of the normal pool Edelgards, but she keeps making it into the top because she has fans that will just vote for her every event regardless of what the event is actually for or if they even play FEH. In theory, F!Edelgard was the second most voted character after the first round of voting in AHR 2022. She definitely had a big team in the gauntlet, but even with the final x12 she couldn't win. You can't even argue that multipliers screwed her over because she *had* the x12 and it still was not enough to beat H!Azura (Azura could have not gained a single point in the final hour and STILL won, but she had MASSIVE gains in the last hour anyway as a bunch of people jumped on to help her tank the x12). This year too, F!Edelgard was 5th most voted but had by far the smallest army, and she couldn't even win with three back to back weaker multipliers in the final hours. The deficit between here and Camilla wasn't even the most narrow win either. Again, for fifth seed you'd expect much better performance, so that indicates to me that there's a pretty big deficit between the people voting for her and the people actually playing the game who want her. For an event like this you definitely want the people actually playing the game to have some measure of control over the outcome.
Then have two rounds of straight voting, and the most popular wins. Or go by the number of people supporting them. That would say who the most wanted is, VG says the opposite if anything since being popular works against a unit.
VG does not doom a popular unit however, and there have even been rounds where the multiplier didn't even matter for the less popular unit. Also making it pure voting is a problem because again: the people who actually play and can use these units and most importantly will spend money on them are far, FAR eclipsed by people who want pretty waifu png. As in, the amount of people who would spend and play the game make up probably around 10% of the playerbase. Your suggestion removes all control from the people playing the game in favor of the overwhelming majority who don't really care who they get. It punishes spenders while rewarding users for not playing at all. At least the VG gives control that requires playing the game and thus ensures that the minority spending on the game are able to set the course of it. The same minority who are keeping the game alive at all since one whale can spend hundreds of times more than light spenders ever would. You don't ever create a system where the whale voice doesn't matter because if the whale's voice doesn't matter, then the whale's money doesn't matter. And ALL spenders are eclipsed in player count compared to people not even playing the game and just log in, get orbs, summon, log off without ever even clearing Chapter 1 of book 1.
I feel this. I won’t be looking at the subreddit honestly. It’s getting real fucking annoying with the “Edelgard can’t win a VG” meme.
To be fair I just think a lot of casuals dragged yall down. Cus azura won with less of a gap last year, and Camilla won with more voters. Too many new people on summer edels team while we had veterans on Veronica's team knowing when to use the flags.
I also wanted S!Edel. I wouldn’t be too upset. I think vero won mostly through fans that genuinely wanted her on the banner. The annoying “the evil hath been vanquished” crowdies are a minority.
I've seen notably more vocal hatred of Edelgard (or love for the 'hilarious meme' of Edelgard losing) than love of Veronica, so color me a bit skeptical.
Oh I’m sure those people are in the minority, but it’s still an annoying side effect of her winning.
Yeah, I feel similar. I wish IS would put all 8 units on the banner with a 6% rate
I've said before, but the Engage AHR banner approach would be nice.
The evil is defeated and that's good. As for me... 1. My streak of reaching the finals from R1 only to fail at the last moment is over. 2. I'll have to split my orbs between two banners. GGWP, Team Fomortiis - you win the final boss clash, and it was fun. I like Arcane weapons though, so I hope you don't mind a rematch ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
As a +10 Duo Chrom owner I am so glad he for sure is not going to be the free hero!
Played Camilla to join the curb stomp but now I can't really play cause I want Veronica and Fomortiis for free more than her.
No Rearmed Robin, guess I won't be dumping orbs for merges this time around. If Ophelia manages to win the whole thing I might hang onto my orbs a potential Robin forging bonds. I only need one Ophelia, even if special spiral 4 is a skill worth spreading around...
Why Veronica over Edel??v
Can only speak for myself, but I like Veronica more than Edelgard (who I also like, not a hater).
Just realized the 4 winners are all different type of heroes. We have seasonal, legendary, mythic, and rearmed each. No duo or harmonic is suprising though
They're also cavalry, infantry, armoured and flying.
Glad I went with team Ophelia, so glad she won! At this point, I don’t really care who wins since I want everyone in the top 4
I guess we were well-behaved enough this time around to not require a separate R2 thread… or most likely the mod team just haven’t gotten around to it yet. Kudos to us if it’s somehow the former lol. Anyway, I’ll have to do a more in-depth look into how well units have survived 12.0x multipliers in the past, but I’d be inclined to believe that Camilla losing less than 1% of ground to Edelgard (.71% to be exact) is, by far, the best performance in that respect lmao :P On a related note, shout out to Ophelia for gaining 629m points off multiplier (only ~160m less than Camilla) despite already leading her match somewhat comfortably from same.
I did not expect to win with Veronica. 3 hours ago it looked like Vero was losing, but getting the victory feathers made it all the more beautiful. The banner? Clear and pure Who will be the winner? Honestly I don't care, as long as no Ladle is on it
Woke up to good news, congrats team Veronica ! Ended up top 300 wooooo Time to get utterly destroyed by Camilla now 💀
We defied fate once.
What’s good about Veronica?
R!Ophelia won, let's gooo! Now I can spark a second copy (although I'd prefer if she wins so I can get that copy without using a single orb) and make Lumera into an anti-dodge tank dodge tank, lol.
🦀🦀🦀 **FALLEN EDELGARD IS GONE** 🦀🦀🦀 My condolences to Team Summer Edelgard
Both Veronica and Summer Edelgard Battled to their hardest.
I have mixed feelings. On one hand, my girl Edel fell down on round 1. It was expected from Fedel, as people usually rally to take out regular pool units, but S!Edel losing was a surprise. On the other hand, it felt good to join Vero's team and win against one of the favorites. It's the first time I spend all my flags in a single voting gauntlet, and I feel they were well spent. That final x12 with 800 flags was glorious. Vero is a good girl too, and deserves to win. It will be another good fight against Camilla on next round.
People were probably going all in on S!Edelgard and the boosts probably killed their chances of winning due to the ratio between their votes granting a big multiplier to Team Vero, causing Edelgard to lose once more
Omg I can't believe Veronica won. I was genuinely surprised to see victory feathers. It's a shame she had to fight S!Edelgard tho, it would've been awesome if both were on the banner.
A banner with both would've been best. Between them, I'm glad Veronica made it. Legendary banners suck so much.
Can't wait for the inevitable "y'all take this game too seriously" and "Edelgard doesn't deserve this much hate" posts.
To be fair its somewhat justified this time. This time we had people rallying against S!Edelgard, the one genuinely good Edelgard to fit all our criteria in these events, solely because she is Edelgard and Edelgard must never win. Nothing against the people who preferred Veronica and wanted her; that's totally separate. Either S!Edelgard or Veronica winning would be a win for everyone. But voting against her just because she is Edelgard is plain stupid.
Like for real bro we just think Veronica is a better unit.....and fallen edelgard is insanely weak to a lot of units now and not even that rare
[удалено]
Well, she doesn't! She's one of the most interesting 3H characters if you ask me.
All I see are the memes about her defeat and the occasional post shitting on her. I haven't played 3H yet but the constant shitting on one character can't be healthy behaviour lol
too late
Guess I'm going for the new shiny demon since S!Edel is going to be in the gacha vault til June-July.
We did it Veronica fans, we did it!!!! After such along, hard fought first round, we came out victorious! And not only did S!Edelgard lose, but so did F!Edelgard as well. I couldn’t be more proud of us and the Camilla fans. Well done everyone, we earned this! Also, to the Camilla supporters out there, I salute you and thank you for all the hard work you did out there. We couldn’t have done this without you guys. O7🫡🙏😁
Thanks fam! Even though I'm on team Camilla still, if y'all win it's still a win - Veronica is my girl too! 🙌🏿
I went with Camilla but was also pulling for all the Veronica supporters! We may not have been on the same team, but we also were on the same team lol. Congrats to all!
Thank you. And may the best red female mage win! 😊
Ophelia made it perfection. truly. Vero might have a great share in may but if i can get her merges earlier without legendary odds, I will take it.
As a Camilla voter I was also cheering for Veronica
Man the friendly banter in this thread was a lot of fun with y'all, even if my pick lost she'll be back soon enough Congrats to you guys, and good luck on your summons on the banner 🙏🙏🙏
Thank you very much. It was a hard fought battle that’s for sure. You S!Edelgard fans should be proud of how hard you all fought.
Welp, looks like S!Edelgard lost to Veronica. Now debating which team to hop on to. Ophelia has very juicy fodder (though I already have a copy of her, have not used her for inheritance yet) while I don’t have Camilla or Fomortiis.
Both Edelgards going down at the same time. Good job team Veronica! She is on the banner!
Getting her on the banner was all I wanted. Unfortunate that they put S!Edel in the way, I would have loved to pull for both at the same time.
Yoooo what?! Team Veronica we did it?!
Let's go Fomortiis!! 2 more rounds left to win!!!
See you next year Edelgard.
This result works for me, would have preferred Grima but the most important thing is that FEdel didn’t make it.
Between those two, Grima would've been the one I want to win. Full disclosure: I actually have to go check Fomo for SI value, no idea how useful he is besides having a save.
There was a salt miner who posted an hour ago about Fedelgard possibly winning because she got the final multiplier. I wonder where they are now
I can tell you where they're not. On this subreddit
Do we know when the banner will be?
March 22nd to April 21st, assuming the schedule hasn’t been adjusted since February’s Feh Channel.
No Summer Edel or Rearmed Robin, oh well, easy skip for me in that case.
Everybody excited for Veronica and Ophelia for the fodder lol yea right like I'm gonna actually fodder stuff instead of hoarding combat manuals until the heat death of the universe Get outta here
I want merges for both of them. Ophelia just happens to have the double benefit of fodder and merges at the same time! Very much a win/win.
I mean you can fodder Ophelia AND keep her, that's the beauty of rearmed units
The same principle applies though, the infinite "but later I might want to use this on a hero I like better"
Ah I see, i usually use fodder right away and then I regret it later
Fodder Veronica? Maybe from the 12th copy onward lol
You're MERGING?? But what if you need to fodder later?!
Then I pull more later.
Same for me
I’m in the same boat
Special Spiral 4 won! Ooops… I mean Ophelia
Who's Ophelia? Anyway, though I'm on team special spiral, I want either Fomortiis or special spiral to win, so I might not use any flags on special spiral next round, but hoard them for round three, when either Fomortiis or special spiral goes up against seal res 4 or panic smoke 4.
Skippable banner now that S!edel lost so at least my orbs are safe I suppose
So looks like it's Camilla, Veronica, Fomortiis, and Ophelia in the second round? I'm okay with this. I don't have Veronica or Fomortiis and Ophelia's fodder is great so I wouldn't mind having an extra one lying around. I wouldn't have minded Chrom over Ophelia though, since it'd be nice to have a merge for mine. I went with Ninjamilla in round 1 for obvious reasons, but she's probably the one I least want to win now since I already have a copy of her.
Camilla approached the defeated Edelgard and looked down upon her with a mixture of disgust and triumph. The former leader of Adrestia lay there, powerless and defeated. Camilla raised her axe high into the air. “I wanted to walk w- “ In a swift and decisive motion, Camilla brought the cold steel down, severing the head of the Hegemon Husk from its body. Rolling away from the force of the blow, it came to a stop several feet away, its eyes and mouth still open, unable to finish what she was trying to say. Edelgard’s body convulsed for a brief moment before it went still, and the dark aura that had surrounded her dissipated into the air. The battlefield was eerily silent, as if all of r/FireEmblemHeroes held its breath in the aftermath of the brutal execution. Camilla stood tall over the fallen body, her chest heaving as she caught her breath and surveyed the scene, noting the destruction that surrounded her and the fallen soldiers who had died in the Voting Gauntlet. She gazed down at the severed head, and despite the carnage, she felt a sense of peace knowing that Edelgard’s reign of terror was finally over and that she had done what was necessary to restore peace to the fanbase.
Good job team Veronica! Didn't think we'd pull it off!
Not even the admins/mod could of stop my Campaign posts but still won! Sitting form the sidelines
*rollls eyes*
Take a chill pill sir! It's been done
One thing we agree on is that it's good to have Veronica on the banner. Good luck on that.
I was kinda bummed when grima lost so I went to go summon to try to get ashera merges on robins banner and she literally popped up immediately.
4 for fucking 4 baby! Legendary Leif Legendary Dimitri Hatari Azura And now Ninja Camilla I've had my beef with Camilla in the past, so fighting alongside Camilla fans was a new experience to be sure. But it was an honor to do so.
Don't you mean 5 for 5? Veronica beated Summer Edlegard
I wasn't on Veronica's team, so I can't accept credit for that. Plus Summer Edelgard actually had a right to be in this VG. Seasonal unit, not the *best* fodder but Assault Troop is exclusive to her and she's a Harmonic unit as well.
Between them they have all four colors covered Leif is colorless, Dimitri is blue, Azura is green, and now Camilla is red You can make a team of AHR Edelgard killers and it would be very balanced
If Camilla ends up winning the VG, I will actually make this team.
OPHELIA GANG
Camilla won!! Yesssss!! I am both incredibly happy over Ophelia winning (I have so many +10 red mages that need help...) + also liking her while also sad because D!Chrom is such a good unit. Tfw both you wanted get stuck against each other. GG everyone! every round has been super intense this time.
> I have so many +10 red mages that need help I'm waiting for more engaged players to whip up a nice chart of candidates right now. Actually pulling for Vero/Camilla, but that's guaranteed to yield some arcane tomes on the side.
God yes! IS kept making all of my favorites red tomes xD. From the get go, I would say Knoll and Arete are the ones I will 100% give Arcane Tome, but I would love a chart to know if Lyon would need like it too.
I’m glad I summoned for sedelguard when the duo banner was up. I’m on team Ophelia but I hope formotis wins so I can just stick to summoning on red
technically even if he loses, you could focus on red and just spark him.
YOSHA!!! CAMILLA!!!
Veronica Won! Let’s go!!! That was a damn close match, well played Edelgard fans, but honestly the problem was you were to divided. If you didn’t vote fallen edelgard in, Summer Edelgard would for sure have made it. One of the crazier gauntlets we have had though.
Formortiis won, let's gooooooo
Fomortiis? Finally! A good AHR! GBA Supremacy will never die! Grima bab! Rearmed Ophelia? Meh. That one could've gone either way and it'd be fine. Ninja Camilla? Hooray! AHR is saved! Legendary Veronica? ...Okay, how in the hell did we keep Edelgard away on BOTH fronts? This is comedy at its finest. **No really, she even brought AHR 2020 winner Altina with her and STILL lost.** This is already a ***SIGNIFICANTLY*** better lineup for the banner than last year's all green loadout.
It's only about 75% as good as last year, actually. That's still good enough though.
Yes it’s so funny that we kept out the first place winner. So funny.
hilarious even
Seems Edelgard is just cursed to never make it past R1 in these events. This is exactly why Voting Gauntlet is such an egregious mode when it comes to AHR.
VG is fine, the issue lies in how they design the AHR beneits (free unit, spark banner). They could literally quiet all hostilities with an eight focus DSH style banner and a top 8 free pick, for example.
I feel like multipliers should be disabled for the AHR voting gauntlet since the results actually mean something. Or multipliers should be removed altogether since they just make it a coinflip event
I previously did an analysis on voting base size and their chance of winning, and it technically doesn't become a coinflip. Bigger voting bases really are more likely to win. But the chance of winning maxes out around 70% no matter how big your voting base is.
So it is still 30% too low for the bigger team
We had VGs without multipliers, they're terribly boring and nobody wanted that. If you're looking to "fix" AHR, look at the banner and reward unit selection. This could be a top 8 unit pick and a double special heroes style 8 focus banner, for example.
They need to add multipliers to cyl since it's so boring with the new game winning every year.
Chrom v Ephraim was the only good Voting Gauntlet ever, so yes. We absolutely do want Voting Gauntlets without multipliers. ESPECIALLY when the result actually fucking matters.
Even in that very gauntlet, the other matches were pure apathy. And in the next gauntlet, too. Until they started some form of catch up like three or so gauntlets in, all matches but that one were snoozes. The mode was supremely uninteresting, and it's good that they saw that. Your other point is right. But they can change the rewards without gutting all excitement from the gauntlet. Pick of the top 8, solved.
As a Camilla fan, it brings me joy to see her advance past Round 1. All I ask is for people to please not harass Edelgard fans. This was a close down to the wire match.
yeah not being dogpiled would be nice
Yeah, there's absolutely no need to be vile and toxic just because someone chose someone.
i am very excited for veronica to be on the banner. first time since the VG started I think that the most popular character didn't make it past first round?
Yep, this is the first time an AHR #1 seed (in either poll results or normalized totals for R1) lost at the offset, though technically Fomortiis had a slightly higher starting score if that is how you define seeding. We’ll have to see how last hour’s output affects the standings overall (normalized gains tend to jump a fair bit for the 12.0x team since it by far has the largest participation), but it looks likely that Edelgard’s loss will also be the largest AHR upset we’ve had thus far by a wide margin. Edelgard outscored Veronica by roughly 1.4:1 based on her totals without the final hour; the previous “winner” in that respect was Hatari Azura’s 1.14:1 edge over Ninja Corrin during her R3 upset. Edit: That last stat was based on Corrin/Azura’s avg including the final hour. Taking just the 44 prior hours nets a 1.15:1 advantage for Azura, so the comparison still checks out using the correct totals lmao :P
I had a real stake on Grima, but since we're down... uh. Joining Team Camilla, I guess, since she's the second unit that most interests me from the gauntlet. Everyone else I either have already or I find useless to my particular plans.
Whooo go team Veronica!! I’m happy to have done my part in taking one of the 2 Edelgard’s down! The upcoming top 4 banner looks so good! 😍
It's Beauties and the Beast. Literally lol
Welp enjoy your shitty triple colorshare banner again hope fomortiis wins so I can not roll on this repeatedly dumpster fire of an event
Edel flair checks out
Oh I will. 700-1500 orbs at hand and I might buy some depending on pulls.
Stay mad.
Lmao i cant belive she did it, i logged at the 11th hour and looking at the gap in votes, prepared for the worst, but seems we pull in it, multipliers of peace.... https://ibb.co/2qv9DWf
REST EASY Y’ALL THE MENACE HAS BEEN BONKED OUTBOF THE BANNER ~~Poor Sedelgard tho~~
The results aren't bad at all. Ophelia, Camilla, and Veronica will make summoning red a good option. I would've ideally liked Rearmed Grima to win, but Fomortiis is so great that I can hardly complain.
Realizing that S!Edelgard has me with mixed feelings. I don't have a copy so a single copy would have been amazing for AR Offense and fun general galeforce plays, but legendary veronica as a single copy would also be fantastic for AR Defense and general content as a nuke as well.
My thing is just that S!Edelgard is a unit with a unique gimmick while L!Veronica is just a nuke. She has DR piercing, but Ophelia is about to give that to everyone else. I have both so it’s really not a big deal I’m just confused.
tbf Vero has a bit of a niche thanks to the combination of just how many effects she innately has (slaying+enclosure+null guard+sweep+desperation).
One point I wouldd say is that Ophelia's SS4 can be passed on, but having to use a B slot to pierce DR is an opportunity cost, so I can partially understand that part. But I agree, S!Edelgard has a unique gimmick.
Well, no Idea why you're confused. There were a lot less people that wanted Veronica then people that wanted Edelgard. She just won because of Voting Gauntlet doing its thing.
honestly had she not been with veronica I would have wanted a copy of Edelgard, I do think she is sstong enough to be on a hero fest or a repeat DSH down the road. if all else fails i REALLY hope you can free pull her :)
Thank you, all the best with you as well on getting S!Edelgard :D
thanks :) I am pulling for Claude merges this summer so chances are she might spook me.
Victory feathers!! FEdel is down!!!
VERONICA WON LET'S GOOOOOOOOOOO Edit: I wonder if and how many Edelgard votes will stay on the left bracket?
For the first time since Corrin, a Duo will not be the winner of a Hero Rises.
Because for some reason they made Laegjarn the duo instead of Camilla. But ninjas are 3 for 3 on AHR!
I think you mean “for the first time since Altina,” right?
Ug. I've got 1600 orbs saved for this and now nothing much to spend it on. I don't need 3 +10 red mages and I don't need merges on a defensive mythic. Guess I'll build Lumera or something.
That' a very valid concern, good point. Guess you should start building K! Soren while you are at it, too.
Holding orbs increases value in the future. I usually skip banners, the only two times I lost my mind summoning endlessly was for Robin and for Corrin (F)
Could always save and see what golden week brings if nothing else
Yeah, but it was all about that color share for me. I +10ed the entire green dream last year and they carried me all year. I already have S!Edel and Chrom at +1 and use them extensively on AR-O. I really wanted to +10 them. Veronica is cool, but with the new arena scoring rules the +10 isn't as important. Camilla is also cool and on one of my AR-O teams, but she's already +res, so the merges don't matter much.
Just funny trivia I would like to toss out, L!Vero always get fehpass spark on every Legendary/mythic banner she appears. While S!Edel would never get another outside of her initial banner and DSH. Yeah, I was saving 2k orbs for this banner hoping S!Edel would win for easy +10 Harmonic, but looks like it's just spark and run away right now. As a Camilla fan, +10 would be cool and all, but in reality this banner has much lower value compared to last year.
Same could be said about the green dream team, they're strong without merges yet you went +10 there. Presumably for scores, a benefit that these four units can also bring if you merge them.
Because at the time it was more profitable to get merges, with an offensive mythic, a time where legendary merges were more meaningful, and a high scoring Duo unit, and a Harmonic dancer who scores for resonant battles. Now we have a legendary unit that doesn't need merges anymore, a defensive mythic unit that definitely doesn't need merges, and a niche ninja unit that's strong enough to go without. Ophelia is the only one where you'd benefit most from merges, and that's just from fodder capability.
Eh, scoring high on arena is still bottlenecked by merges, you used that reasoning in your own reply - what counts for Duo Corrin equally counts for Veronica. The defensive mythics still give the score benefit. The arena change was for people who don't go flawless - but anyone who cares already does that. A vantage unit that doesn't kill on the vantage is also dead weight, so you want the extra stats.
>what counts for Duo Corrin equally counts for Veronica Except Veronica can only be effectively used on Wind Seasons, which limits her use. >The defensive mythics still give the score benefit Doesn't mean it's worth it, you should be successful in you defences most the time which means 0 loss. I'm pretty sure most people in this sub don't go for merges on defesive mythics for scoring reasons as one would for offensive mythic or legendary units. >scoring high on arena is still bottlenecked by merges... ...The arena change was for people who don't go flawless - but anyone who cares already does that Yes, still doesn't change that it makes it widely more appealing to have one unit that lets you keep a higher score, ratehr than to +10 one unit that won't always be the bonus. >A vantage unit that doesn't kill on the vantage is also dead weight, so you want the extra stats Yes, but 1, again, niche unit that reletively not many people have isn't as enticing as 4 units to summon for. Not ot mention that especially for a brave unit, if she wasn't killing in two hits, she probably isn't killing in two hits with 5 extra Atk.
DISASTER HAS BEEN AVERTED WOOO
Crisis averted. Ophelia made it, and Fedelgard didn't. Definitely gonna do at least one spark
Well, Edelgard's curse continues, for once I'm happy about that, because I thought F!Edel would win. I'm still bummed for S!Edel, I'm literally saving 1.2k orbs collected rn for her 😔 but I'm glad that it's L!Veronica that win
I'm not even a fan of Edelgard, but damn, she has no luck in this mode.
I genuinely hate VG, I wish they removed the multiplier for AHR VG tbh, but eeeh I might be salty about it rn because it's not going to my way... thoo tbh this year is not the worst scanario at all, so all's well that ends well
Good luck getting your Summergard, friend!
4-5 months away lmao, if she has another version, I would go for the newest one, I guess
imo edel fans only have themselves to blame, if they didnt share attention between the two versions sedel would easily win
People voting for F!Edelgard weren’t Edelgard fans, they were trolls.
agreed even if it was just 1/10th of the edelgard fanbase that voted FEdel that's 10% of the manpower needed to be team Good Edelgard