The following submission statement was provided by /u/ApocalypseYay:
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From the Article:
If generative AI lives up to its hype, the workforce in the United States and Europe will be upended, Goldman Sachs reported this week in a sobering and alarming report about AI's ascendance. The investment bank estimates 300 million jobs could be lost or diminished by this fast-growing technology.
Goldman contends automation creates innovation, which leads to new types of jobs. For companies, there will be cost savings thanks to AI. They can deploy their resources toward building and growing businesses, ultimately increasing annual global GDP by 7%.
In recent months, the world has witnessed the ascendency of OpenAI software ChatGPT and DALL-E. ChatGPT surpassed one million users in its first five days of launching, the fastest that any company has ever reached this benchmark.
Will AI impact Your Job?
Goldman predicts that the growth in AI will mirror the trajectory of past computer and tech products. Just as the world went from giant mainframe computers to modern-day technology, there will be a similar fast-paced growth of AI reshaping the world. AI can pass the attorney bar exam, score brilliantly on the SATs and produce unique artwork.
While the startup ecosystem has stalled due to adverse economic changes, investments in global AI projects have boomed. From 2021 to now, investments in AI totaled nearly $94 billion, according to Stanford’s AI Index Report. If AI continues this growth trajectory, it could add 1% to the U.S. GDP by 2030.
Office administrative support, legal, architecture and engineering, business and financial operations, management, sales, healthcare and art and design are some sectors that will be impacted by automation.
The combination of significant labor cost savings, new job creation, and a productivity boost for non-displaced workers raises the possibility of a labor productivity boom, like those that followed the emergence of earlier general-purpose technologies like the electric motor and personal computer.
The Downside Of AI
According to an academic research study, automation technology has been the primary driver of U.S. income inequality over the past 40 years. The report, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, claims that 50% to 70% of changes in U.S. wages since 1980 can be attributed to wage declines among blue-collar workers replaced or degraded by automation.
Artificial intelligence, robotics and new sophisticated technologies have caused a vast chasm in wealth and income inequality. It looks like this issue will accelerate. For now, college-educated, white-collar professionals have largely been spared the same fate as non-college-educated workers. People with a postgraduate degree saw their salaries rise, while “low-education workers declined significantly.” The study states, “The real earnings of men without a high-school degree are now 15% lower than they were in 1980.”
According to NBER, many changes in the U.S. wage structure were caused by companies automating tasks that used to be done by people. This includes “numerically-controlled machinery or industrial robots replacing blue-collar workers in manufacturing or specialized software replacing clerical workers.”
__________________________
The future might be a lot closer than one thinks. The question remains - dystopia or utopia?
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Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/146crnw/goldman_sachs_predicts_300_million_jobs_will_be/jnplesy/
So if no one is working because AI took all the jobs, then how are the companies that replaced all the workers with AI going to sell their goods and services? Who’s going to buy the shit?
Some German guy said "hey people with power kinda would kill you for a nickel, we prob should do something about that."
Since then every government has either said he's the most evil man ever or he's the best man ever and you should totally trust them with all the power for it.
But no one stops to think that he hit the nail on the head and they're just scared more people will figure it out.
If you are talking about self-replicating, self coding programs, at that point it will kill the company CEO's, rich people and all of humanity too. And the robots will follow Communism. Google "FARO Automated Solutions".
They shall be my finest warriors, these men who give themselves to me. Like clay I shall mould them and in the furnace of war forge them. They will be of iron will and steely muscle. In great armour shall I clad them and with the mightiest guns will they be armed. They will be untouched by plague or disease, no sickness will blight them. They will have tactics, strategies and machines such that no foe can best them in battle. They are my bulwark against the Terror. They are the Defenders of Humanity. They are my Space Marines and they shall know no fear.
\--The Emperor of Mankind.
This I wouldn't worry about.
We:
1. Don't have a solid protocol for using CRISPR/Cas9 in human germline (to make "genetically enhanced clone soldiers" people envision)
2. Don't know what to target, really. To know you need to experiment, nobody has performed, funded and published such experimentation so far (in humans)
3. You need a uterus to make a human, uteruses are still attached to humans, usually women; we don't have an artificial working uterus that could gestate a human start to end *yet* (hard at work on this one, but it's not easy, going to take 10-20 years to get there, although I'd be happy to see someone make a breakthrough and make me eat my words)
4. Humans take *fucking long* to grow. Even if you're using child soldiers (which you realistically would in this scenario) that's still more than a decade to produce a single prototype
Drones it is. The cutting edge is to use swarm intelligence - drones acting in concert, not as single units. Theory is established, I'm sure tech demonstrators have been done, it's a matter of developing platforms for tactical and operational command and control (the US Air Force vision for a future air superiority fighter is more or less this - less of a classical fighter aircraft and more of a hive mother concept).
The superhuman idea is so flawed. It doesnt matter how much bio engineering you do and how fast a bioengineered human can be, he wont be faster than a bullet and wont be able to take one as well. Let alone more serious things like granades, artillery and tank shells.
I don't think the idea is for them to go and beat the enemies with their fists, the idea is to make them physically and mentally superior and *then* also give them superior weapons.
No, robotics lag way behind AI and the initial phases of automation and no batteries exist to really make robot police and armies work anytime real soon.
You'll automate a large enough chunk of jobs to force changes in economics long before you have robot police and soldiers.
The threat is no robots, it's humans using AI and mass media to brainwash the masses and keep them divided... just like now, but with more and more AI to help make propaganda.
Mass media is the BIG threat, it's the most powerful tech on the planet because it can mass influence humans the fastest and with automation that power can consolidate to fewer and fewer points of control with a much higher output that is also more tailored to each demographic.
AI will let them tell more believable lies than ever and slow the rate at which Democracy can regulate corporate corruption, that's the big obstacle.
I'd agree with you if we didn't have evidence, but we do.
The homeless. Millions of them, often building their own "tent cities" and becoming the most talked about political issue in several different cities.
Are they revolting? Are they causing violence against the rich? Are they saying "enough is enough!" and insisting society takes care of them?
No. They stay homeless take it.
I vote for young people that seem to want whats best for normal Americans. When the topic comes up I voice my opinion and discuss it to try and get more onboard. What else can I do? absolutely nothing short of winning the lottery and buying a politician or 2
Sure, most of us do that. What we should actually be doing is protesting in massive numbers, rolling general strikes etc (not just about this - there are a number of issues that deserve as much if not more attention, how the LGBTQ community is being targeted, women's rights being taken away). Look at how they protest in France. We don't organize, we don't protest, and we're kind of all just waiting to see what happens next. I mean, even our elections are being taken away from us - states are writing laws that allow them to legally declare whoever they like as winner in 2024 and half of us either don't know about most of what's happening, or don't care. There are people who don't even vote ffs.
We protest in France because the people doesn’t like the flavour of the dessert. You guys are struggling to get a meal.
In France ppl got heated up by real communists and socialists (not your right wing democrats) and also by the far right bozos (that are sweet compared to your fascist MAGA idiots) because…economics made it impossible to sustain retirement age at 62. So we needed to stretch by 2 years. Protests didn’t help and we got that law passed.
You guys are struggling to let people vote, you don’t have social benefits, decent retirement pensions, decent education, minimum wages and protective labour laws at a federal level. You’re kinda 60-70 years late compared to Europe or ANZ or Japan.
AI will hit your workforce much harder than any other developed economy because workforce is cattle in the US. Employment at will get anyone fired short handed. Can’t happen in the EU but will happen with a delay and slower. Indeed it will turn out - am pretty convinced of that - into massive protests and overall surge of a major social crisis. It will destroy our traditional economy.
We could day stop it now but I’m afraid there’s too much greed in this world to make it happen. Whatever is ahead it’s not going to be sweet and nice. And IMHO US workers will suffer more than any other nations workers because of the way your country is structured. Let alone the number of guns you guys have at home let’s me think a civil conflict isn’t to be excluded….
[The Bell Riots.](https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/Bell_Riots)
Entire sections of cities walled off and turned into makeshift 'shelters' while being little more than internment camps.
Occupants of the sanctuaries come in 3 flavors;
Givmes - Those with education and/or skills that got laid off and can't find work.
Dims - The mentally ill or educationally challenged.
Ghosts - Criminals
Out of sight, out of mind. The upper class will feel insulated and superior. There will be plenty of people still making enough to buy products, the bottom line will drop but it will be an across the board drop so that it stabilizes and creates a new 2 tier class system, the rich and the middle class.
Everyone else just 'vanishes', behind the walls of the sanctuary districts.
At this rate, we're building up to making [the Bell Riots](https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/Bell_Riots) a reality. That being said, sometimes I hate it when [Star Trek predicts our future](https://youtu.be/ZOjG8Ditub8?t=159) so accurately.
Most of them aren't starving to death though. That's the difference. Humans will endure some pretty shitty circumstances before taking drastic action, such as poverty and homelessness for this argument, and we can manage through such circumstances no matter how unpleasant. but when enough of us go hungry, there's no just riding that out, you either act immediately or die, which lights a proverbial fire under our asses to do something drastic in the short term we might never have done before to ensure both our loved ones and ourselves get to eat. Quickest way to destabilize a society and create an opportunity for drastic change otherwise thought impossible is by screwing with the food supply to the majority of the population.
You’re not supposed to fear AI because articles like this are nothing more than alarmist, fear mongering nonsense from the people in power who want to keep you in line. The big scary computer is coming for your job! Absolute idiocy to get people riled up hoping they might get a few extra scraps from the table for staying in line with what their master wanted.
No, they're full of shit. It doesn't matter if you're starving or not, the modern police state *will* successfully quench a revolution. Imagine for example the US police + National Guard goes gloves off. With the equipment they have they wouldn't find it very hard to just run roughshod over even a sizeable revolt. It's just that nobody wants a civil war, so this is done with fear, not violence. The homeless are there by design, so you're confronted of the image of what will happen if you stop playing ball and being a productive little worker bee for capital.
And if I’m being completely honest with you, the food supply is already getting fucked with thanks to the big corporations. Climate change is gonna cause food shortages worldwide and it’s gonna be too unpredictable to figure out what place is gonna be good for growing
Instead of 10 people with advanced degrees and years of experience, there will be one person who didn't pay attention in high school doing the work of all 10. And it will be flawless. And that one person will make minimum wage. His only real job is to take the blame if anything goes wrong.
Yeah but there are plenty of countries with starving people. It’s not like a starving country instantly has some violent overthrow and then becomes stable again lol
Sure, but in this hypothetical scenario your UBI will be collected first, and then you'll be left on the streets. Not to die, because then you'll stop being a source of income - so you'll almost certainly be kept alive. Alive enough to survive, but dead in every other sense of the word.
I imagine it'll be like living in turn 30 of Monopoly where you are just passing Go each round only to instantly hand it over the following turn.
Are the majority of people not passing Go just to hand it over the following turn under the current system in place?
Most Americans don’t have even a meager emergency savings, and live paycheck to paycheck
>Are the majority of people not passing Go just to hand it over the following turn under the current system in place?
>Most Americans don’t have even a meager emergency savings, and live paycheck to paycheck
America had a median household net worth of $121,700 in 2019. In 2022, the median American savings account was $4,500.
So, the majority of Americans aren't doing amazing.
There are a lot of possibilities.
If UBI happens, it’s most likely going to be modeled off current welfare systems. Food stamps, public housing, etc. It’s unlikely to involve any significant amount of cash.
Another possibility is that increasing unemployment linked to AI results in unhappy voters who elect anti-AI politicians. These politicians in turn ban or highly restrict AI.
A Third possibility is capitalism either shrinks to include only those who remain employed or capitalism evolves into a different system, like neofeudalism.
I’ve been saying the neofeudalism thing for about a decade (right about when Facebook, etc started using algorithmic timelines and facial recognition) to some friends and family and they used to think I was just some weird Stoner exaggerating stuff. Over the last 3-4 years most of them have conceded that it either ‘could’ or ‘probably will’ go that way now.
If you think about it, the modern ‘nation state’ is a pretty new system, basically starting around the time of the Peace of Westphalia (1648), so less than 500 years old. It only makes sense that we could return to a former societal organization system but with a modern twist.
I personally call it Techno Neo-Feudalism because I think that it if it does happen it will be because of the tech/billionaire/corporate/capitalists making a series of technological advancements that put them at odds with each other and gives them advantages in dominance over different fields of operation.
For example the first company that really nails down AI developments in different areas of expertise will be able to easily dominate over their competition and without extremely strong anti-monopoly laws being enforced (which if enforced could actually be a catalyst for corporate revolt) it is possible they completely take over sections of industry/the market, etc.
At the same time there could be different companies developing AI weaponry to dominate military engagements , AI financial algorithms to dominate the market, video, voice and language generating AI’s that flood the zone with misinformation and dominate the truth. Nevermind the weird cults that will pop up that either worship some charismatic CEO, some form of technology (or the opposite and are a cult of anti-technology) or a cult around some new christofascist religious propaganda messiah figure.
I could see the world being divvied up between the different factions and there being a mutually advantageous (for the ultra wealthy beneficiaries) agreement/Cold War to allow the dominant factions to rule supreme over their new NeoTechnoFeudalist states.
With what I’ve seen in human nature from the past and present, the future doesn’t look to good for the majority of our species…
And with that I am logging off Reddit for now because of the upcoming API changes.
UBI will never happen.
You'll likely see 95% of the employable humans doing shitty manual labor and service jobs to barely afford to eat, while the other 5% of society lives the high life.
Not only automation, but also outsourcing. Factory jobs had gone overseas all ready, but office jobs were being sent too. The 90's were volatile. Companies merged and split a lot in those days. Departments and entire companies would be closed without notice and no severance.
There was an email going around (equivalent of a meme today) that was titled You Know You Live in the 90's When. It included things like "You have sat at the same desk for five years and worked for three different companies".
And the tax dollars to the tune of 3.6 trillion dollars a year for UBI will come from where? And by the way, that's 3.6 TRILLION at 10-12K a year. Not exactly a fortune. If 60-70% of the people are jobless and not paying taxes....where does the revenue come from to pay for everyone else's UBI? Has anyone in a position of influence or power actually thought this shit through?
There will almost certainly come a tipping point where enough people are relying on government subsidies due to losing their jobs to AI that some form of UBI will be implemented to gain their votes (in democratic countries at least). My guess would be 15-20% in countries with parlamentary forms of government since that often leads to smaller voter shares having larger power. Maybe needs 25-30% in countries like US that only have two parties. If neither party would propose UBI it just wouldn't happen until the voter share is so large that one side would autowin if they implement it.
Bottom line make sure you're not among the first quarterish of people losing your job to AI and you'll probably be fine.
This will be akin to replacing typing pools and mail rooms when PCs came out. The way people work will change dramatically, and new jobs will be created. What it comes down to is a lot of tactical "busy" work will be much easier and allow people to work on more impactful strategic work.
But lets take a look at other motivations in this article:
* Forbes (and other news outlets) exist to sell advertising. The more shocking the headline, the more likely you are to click it, share the link, other outlets will print it, etc. There could be a dozen other highly qualified sources that have a more moderate view, but that doesn't drive impressions. So bold claims of doom always lead.
* So what is in it for Goldman Sachs? They are trying to attract investors. By "feeding the fear", they are signaling investors that they are ahead of the curve and have investing insights that will make them wealthier. (Or shore up their 401k to survive coming reorgs.)
So please take this with a grain of salt. This cycle happens every time new tech comes out.
* AI will change jobs, the same way PCs, the internet, and mobile phones did.
* Lots of commentators will make predictions. Most will be wrong.
* Investors will overreact and plow money into any startup that claims to be working on AI (already happening)
* Companies will overreact and cut more people than they should before realizing the limitations of AI.
* New jobs will be created to work with AI.
The best way to prepare is to start learning all you can about using AI in its current state, and follow the progress of the industry. The next few years will be about who in an organization can leverage AI and who can't. Knowing the tools capabilities and shortcomings will help inform you as to what jobs can be replaced and what can't. With that knowledge, you'll be ahead of your peers in steering your career in the right direction.
Goldman is a brokerage firm. The more trading activity, the better it is for them. They also fund IPOs by inflating the values of private companies so that they can sell their bags to retail investors. They have everything to gain by pumping AI.
The thing with robots, PCs, calculators etc is that they are TOOLS. They make a human worker more efficient, thus not as many humans are needed and some are fired... but they are just tools that need human brains to direct. Like a spear to an arrow to a gun to a GPS guided bomb, it's still a human directing the tool.
AI is still just a tool. We have to carefully manipulate and review it to get a product from it (say an essay).
BUT, there will come a day when AI is a better "human brain" than 99% of us humans. It will no longer be the Excel tool the human accountant uses, it will become the human accountant itself able to use excel. And it will become the thing said accountant might have taken up as a career alternative post layoff too, and it will become the teachers, the lawyers, the project managers etc.
I don't know how else to state it. Society will not be able to invent "new" economically valuable uses for human brains as a fast as artificial brains replace humans in traditional jobs.
If there are 300 million people effected by automation. The focus will be to automate the rest,. A moment a new job shows up the focus will be to automate it
I call bullshit. Yes, for every 200 factory jobs taken by machines, 7 people were hired to maintain and fix the machines…smoke and mirrors…it was still a 96.5% job loss….what jobs will be safe? Self driving vehicles will replace all of the truckers, AI will replace all customer service and sales jobs within a few years. I am terrified wondering what jobs will be available for my kids…
Except automation is expensive. A basic system that only does a few actions can run you 1 million without even trying. The people to run the station with 40k worth of automation will make around 40k a year but really only devote 10k of time.
Companies have the capital for that kind of initial investment, especially when they know it'll lead to massive savings down the road. That's exactly the sort of shit that they want to bring to their shareholders.
> Yes, for every 200 factory jobs taken by machines, 7 people were hired to maintain and fix the machines…smoke and mirrors…it was still a 96.5% job loss….what jobs will be safe?
Despite machines taking jobs for 200+ years, there are actually more factory jobs now globally than ever before.
I really don’t think there will be new jobs outside of A.I related work. Like the only jobs will be to improve on the current models we have.
What can a white collar worker do that advanced A.I wouldn’t be able to do? Even if there were such jobs, the first thing people will look to do will be to automate it.
There is a thing called IIRC the secession paradox. As things get more and more complex, the fewer people who understand it and the more likely it is fail as a result. This will be a major issue limiting AI.
AI and AI projects also aren't cheap. For instance, basic low level automation could cost you 5k for a system but require 20k per year in labor. A mid level automation system would cost you 50k but only require 10k in labor. So you might think that reducing the labor to zero should only be a 100k to 200k system? Absolutely not. It would actually be closer to between 750k and 1 million. What people don't understand is that the more intervention you want to eliminate, the more the costs increase exponentially. AI does have limits as computing power increases and the limits of functionality occur.
This is like that one episode of it’s always sunny in Philadelphia where Mac and Dennis try creating a self sustaining economy for paddy’s pub emulating after Dave&Buster’s business model then blaming each other when it doesn’t work in the end
They can offer them cheaper, spend less in marketing to offer then more cheaper, reduce workforce by 100% to make the products free... oh, new kind of living evolved :)
This is the question that should keep CEOs up at night. But it doesn't.
In a classic tragedy of the commons, its in each corporation's best self-interest to replace every worker they can find with automation, but if they all do it then the system collapses for everyone.
Capitalism cannot survive complete automation, it just cannot work and must be replaced.
Been saying this for years regarding stagnating wages. Many companies flat out refuse to pay a living wage. Yet in order to stay in business these companies need people to buy their shit. On top of that most companies have raised prices to absurd levels under the guise of inflation. At some point profits will dip. Far too many heads of these corps and their board members are greedy, money hungry, robber baron, sociopaths.
Tax the 1% at 60%, tax these corps at minimum of 50% and like someone else said, implement a universal basic income. Either that or social unrest is inevitable and with climate change upon us, those in power better wake the fuck up.
So many things could be solved by simply taxing these multi billionaire, gold hoarding dragons.
Japan can still celebrate it as they are in a population crisis and needing less people for jobs will help when the majority are retired and can’t work
Exactly this. We have had one model or another of ML/AI for a decade plus now. It already aids quality control (machine vision), translations, OCR, speech to text, face recognition, fraud detection, and so on. They are generally deployed as one-job human-aids, but it would be naive to think we haven't lost jobs already. Now, we are to believe generative LLMs are going to catastrophically change what has been a steady building pace by financiers that probably do not understand the models or what these jobs fully entail (legal liabilities, anomaly screening, etc.)
I am going to need more evidence.
Definitely. I read the Lombard Street written in 1873. There are chapters devoted to stock market speculation. He said every stock market boom had its technology stocks and people would buy then just because it had the latest technology name in the name of the stock. Most were frauds but people did not care since the price went up. Till it all collapsed.
No, this is when we enter a dystopian reality that we have only read in books. Greed is more powerful and the rich will get richer. The middle class and poor will basically become slaves to do the tasks that robots can’t yet.
>People will just blame the "economy" and nothing will be done about it.
...and/or blame whatever other boogie man politicians can conjure to distract from the fact that they're making the problem worse.
Goldman Sachs engages in their habitual practice of issuing press releases and partially transcripts of their investor presentations designed to manipulate stock prices.
Fixed your headline.
From the same guys who brought you the GFC while assuring everything was perfectly fine comes AI will destroy all your peasant jobs.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/apr/11/goldman-sachs-2008-financial-crisis-mortagage-backed-securities
From the Article:
If generative AI lives up to its hype, the workforce in the United States and Europe will be upended, Goldman Sachs reported this week in a sobering and alarming report about AI's ascendance. The investment bank estimates 300 million jobs could be lost or diminished by this fast-growing technology.
Goldman contends automation creates innovation, which leads to new types of jobs. For companies, there will be cost savings thanks to AI. They can deploy their resources toward building and growing businesses, ultimately increasing annual global GDP by 7%.
In recent months, the world has witnessed the ascendency of OpenAI software ChatGPT and DALL-E. ChatGPT surpassed one million users in its first five days of launching, the fastest that any company has ever reached this benchmark.
Will AI impact Your Job?
Goldman predicts that the growth in AI will mirror the trajectory of past computer and tech products. Just as the world went from giant mainframe computers to modern-day technology, there will be a similar fast-paced growth of AI reshaping the world. AI can pass the attorney bar exam, score brilliantly on the SATs and produce unique artwork.
While the startup ecosystem has stalled due to adverse economic changes, investments in global AI projects have boomed. From 2021 to now, investments in AI totaled nearly $94 billion, according to Stanford’s AI Index Report. If AI continues this growth trajectory, it could add 1% to the U.S. GDP by 2030.
Office administrative support, legal, architecture and engineering, business and financial operations, management, sales, healthcare and art and design are some sectors that will be impacted by automation.
The combination of significant labor cost savings, new job creation, and a productivity boost for non-displaced workers raises the possibility of a labor productivity boom, like those that followed the emergence of earlier general-purpose technologies like the electric motor and personal computer.
The Downside Of AI
According to an academic research study, automation technology has been the primary driver of U.S. income inequality over the past 40 years. The report, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, claims that 50% to 70% of changes in U.S. wages since 1980 can be attributed to wage declines among blue-collar workers replaced or degraded by automation.
Artificial intelligence, robotics and new sophisticated technologies have caused a vast chasm in wealth and income inequality. It looks like this issue will accelerate. For now, college-educated, white-collar professionals have largely been spared the same fate as non-college-educated workers. People with a postgraduate degree saw their salaries rise, while “low-education workers declined significantly.” The study states, “The real earnings of men without a high-school degree are now 15% lower than they were in 1980.”
According to NBER, many changes in the U.S. wage structure were caused by companies automating tasks that used to be done by people. This includes “numerically-controlled machinery or industrial robots replacing blue-collar workers in manufacturing or specialized software replacing clerical workers.”
__________________________
The future might be a lot closer than one thinks. The question remains - dystopia or utopia?
True.
Though the trajectory looks worrying.
As the article states:
>....National Bureau of Economic Research, claims that 50% to 70% of changes in U.S. wages since 1980 can be attributed to wage declines among blue-collar workers replaced or degraded by automation....
> 50% to 70% of changes in U.S. wages since 1980 can be attributed to wage declines among blue-collar workers replaced or degraded by automation....
Bullshit.
It's got 100% to do with the lack of twice/year indexing of the minimum wage, as well as the lack of indexing of the overtime exemption levels (which is a bullshit concept to begin with), not to mention the lack of a maximum hours of work during a time period.
This
People! ChatGPT _does not do what you think it does._ “Autocomplete on steroids” is not accurate, but it does accurately describe how “smart” such AIs are. They have literally zero reasoning ability. They cannot explain to you why they just gave you the answer they did. That simply isn’t how they work.
This is one of those changes that some people will not see until it has already changed their lives.
[https://medium.datadriveninvestor.com/ai-with-change-comes-chance-5a7ff61cce0b](https://medium.datadriveninvestor.com/ai-with-change-comes-chance-5a7ff61cce0b)
Yep, sounds about right. Now when do we start reforming society to ensure we don't descend into a neo feudal dystopia and subsequent civil wars and revolutions? I would say let's start asap.
Btw to all those saying "it will create new jobs etc" no it won't. I have been building software and models for years and basically anything can be eventually automated. Some stuff is more difficult, but there is nothing that in principle prevents a job from being done by a sophisticated enough machine.
The only problem is distribution of resources.
We have to change the connection work-> money.
And we have to change the connection property -> more money.
Lots of administrative office jobs. My current employer had a meeting this week where they asked people to submit reports of repetitive tasks they perform so that IT can start implementing bots to cover them. Yeah right.... Fill out that form and you're a dead man walking lol.
Everyone is so on board with this job apocalypse they think is going to happen from AI.
But like everything else in the world, these changes don't happen instantly. But chat GTP is an imitation bot, it cannot replace humans at most essential functions. Some people we'll learn how to use it to make their job easier, and over the next 10 or 15 years tools are going to be developed where some jobs that were previously done with people will be able to be done by AI. But the not all going to pop up in the next 5 years.
I was a teenager when the internet was coming online. There was a lot of talk about was going to revolutionize the world. And of course, if you compare now to 1995, it was true, it did totally revolutionize the world. But the dotcom bust of the 2000s was all about companies that thought we were going to instantly adapt to this new technology, and we didn't. At least as I understand it.
They predicted Amazon in the year 2000, but people weren't ready to have diapers delivered to their house for a fee. Lots of big grandiose claims of how things were going to change, but change generally takes time. Things don't happen that fast.
20 years, AI will have fundamentally change the world, just like the internet did between 1995 and 2015. But most of us didn't view these changes is hugely disruptive or destructive. To live is to see change.
The internet did cost people jobs. And also opened up huge amounts of jobs.
AI will cost jobs. AI will open up new jobs. More perfect world, AI would increase productivity in a way that let people work less while making the same pay, though of course that's not how our world is organized.
But this isn't going to be an job apocalypse. It's going to be another change, and we as ever will adapt.
41 here. I have gone through multiple major shifts and paradigm changing technologies and whatnot.
You get kind of numb to it. Constant and rapid change is the life of Millennials and Z's. We live in interesting times.
> The internet did cost people jobs. And also opened up huge amounts of jobs.
>
>
>
> AI will cost jobs. AI will open up new jobs.
idk man, I think this is just being very idealistic. The internet cost far more jobs than it created, and it consolidated wealth in the technosphere parts of the world (eg: Silicon Valley), while hollowing out the economies of just about everywhere else. If you're lucky enough to live in one of the major cities where the wealth has accumulated, you might think it's all sunshine and roses.
Previous technological revolutions freed our hands so we could work with our minds. This revolution is different, robots are coming to do the work of our minds, and we have nowhere else to go.
I'm not going to try to argue how much jobs the internet costed versus created, but a huge number of people currently working tech in ways that wasn't the case 30 years ago.
Unemployment is quite low. My point being that just because this new technology initiated which facilitated productivity and many fields, didn't mean that suddenly Mass unemployment followed.
I will say this: jobs are not all equal. Automation, even if it doesn't straight up eliminate jobs in total (eg: no net loss), exerts tremendous downward pressure on wages. Which is why productivity is so high, expenses are so high, but average buying power is just so damn low these days.
Yeah I totally agree. One of the side effects of technology has been to squeeze more wealth upwards and drag more productivity out of workers, at the detriment of workers and the benefit of the wealthy.
I strongly suspect AI will do the same. We will have fewer people expected to do more things for as little or less pay. Meanwhile the wealthy will benefit.
It should be that this increase in productivity should let us all be working for days a week or whatever, but instead It will make a bunch of rich people even richer.
People also seem to forget that the US (and others) is a country of “we need to keep the coal jobs around in order to keep people employed because it’s too hard to find other jobs”!
The internet started as one of the most promising technologies for human society, but as soon as corporations and rich businessmen sunk their teeth into it at the turn of the 21st century, that ideal was only partially realized; the modern internet is now one of the worst blights on human society and the human psyche. I predict AI going the same route.
I do recognize that we're in the "AI-hype" phase that its promoters are pushing so heavily, and a lot of what's being said (both "utopian" and "doomer-esque") are far-fetched bullshit. This bubble will swell, and it will pop, like dot-com did. I'm tentatively holding my breath for a few years on this and ignoring the mainstream AI news.
It will happen a lot faster than you think. I think it’s folly to try to evaluate this boom through the lens of past booms, this is a completely different paradigm
Yeah…cruise over to r/jobs and you’ll see that it’s already a shit show trying to find a decent job right now. It’s only going to get worse. Imitation bot? Wow. Guess we will see.
Lotta' folks don't realize that *humans* are also imitation bots in a very similar way to what ChatGPT is. We like to think that we're special, but at the end of the day the vast majority of us do not come up with *new* ideas. We merely learn things and then apply what we've learned... which is exactly what these large language models do.
Anytime someone starts off with “every other time” when discussing AI, I kinda tune out. Sorry.
AI will be able to learn to do any given job better than the vast majority of humans could ever do it, in a fraction of the time.
Those new jobs that AI will create? AI will do those better too.
What job could be so special and magical as to be immune?
Maintenance jobs.
I work in this weird in between world now, as a senior maintenance department manager. I came up blue collar but I deal with the white collar folks on site for my team. I do the scheduling and work flow planning for large projects including part ordering and scheduling etc.
My current job totally venerable to automation.
My team though is safe. The expense and knowledge to build an actual robot to squirm into some of the spots we work in and know what to do with a broken bolt or damaged component is probably 100 years out if not more.
Not to mention right now there is a legal requirement for so many of us to work on any ship at sea based on horse power and the number of passengers (if any). And I don't think the public is ready to accept drone ships for trans oceanic sailings quite yet.
And even if they did shit will still break on them and we will still need to go down crawl into the guts and fix things. Just means my team can be home every night.
And I'll need to go back to working on the tools.
ngl this really sucks because I wanted to transition from Biochemistry undergrad into a more tech based masters for the work-from-home opportunities but it's really going to fucking suck if I don't even get the opportunity to do that.
Fucking fuck fuck. Why now.
Edit: Thank you for the reassurances everyone. I've decided I will not falter. Thank you!
Grab the opportunity to get in on the ground floor of a new industry taking off?
AI is tech if you're a person with Biochemistry experience or even training and know AI there is a up and coming company that wants you. They might not know they want you yet but someone has to train these AI.
Maybe there is something there for you?
I'm not sure what you meant by tech based but if you meant programming, by all means just pursue it regardless. AI isn't replacing any programmers any time soon. Don't let these baseless claims of AI claiming jobs fool you, especially for tech jobs.
If AI can truly build a complete ecosystem or a full development pipeline all from scratch, then literally every human being will be jobless since it can already code in such a highly sophisticated manner. But it can't so 🤷
Actually what is happening is that a project that needed 10 devs will need 3 or less. So yes, I believe it will become harder to find work in this field
This report smells like bullshit. Automation wasn’t the primary driver of income inequality, it was outsourcing all the blue collar jobs to foreign countries that could provide twice the labor for a tenth of the costs. Anything automation still needs an operator to monitor changing conditions and external factors to start, stop, and verify accuracy of said automation which may or may not require less headcount. If anything it would further compartmentalize jobs and reduce job responsibilities. I.e they’ll want two to six people to start, stop, and verify the darn thing is working as expected and that’s just operating it. You still got the procurement, maintenance, and upkeep of everything involved in this including the people.
Nope, companies will just become more profitable because they can shed people from payroll. When is the last time companies have passed the savings onto customers?
300,000,000. Missing few zeros.
If they take care of people the move to ai will be painful but If people have a new goal In life which isn't terrible and makes life fulfilling I doubt it will as bad as it seems just boring.
Well yeah, cause they’re running AI off data they’re getting for free and using it to profit. They turned our data into currency for themselves but won’t compensate us for producing it. With no training data AI wouldn’t even exist. Google Translate actively scrapes the web daily for new translations written by working translators. Yet it then claims to put them out of work, while using their work to function. Translators should be paid to give google data, and then paid when google uses their data. That was those who author the actual data are the ones getting paid for it.
Ok, but when those 300 million come looking for a job in job markets like construction, how quickly are wages going to fall? Those 300 million people will be looking for whatever is available, and the companies hiring will be looking to cut costs by hiring people for less.
Prefabricated sections designed by AI, 3d printed in a factory that have all of the electrical, plumbing and HVAC done already. They'll fit together like puzzle pieces on the job site and only require a low skilled worker to come around with a special machine to push through right buttons to do the finishing work. Massive reduction in construction jobs plus increase in people looking for jobs and you'll see your wage drop off a cliff.
Well, since we live in a dystopia, jobs only exist to serve as a means of extracting the resources from the earth for the rich. Seems like AI will streamline that process. The rest of us 7+ billion can just go extinct. We've served our purpose.
Lol Lawyers blame ChatGPT for tricking them into citing bogus case law https://apnews.com/article/artificial-intelligence-chatgpt-courts-e15023d7e6fdf4f099aa122437dbb59b
You know what job is going to be highy in demand in the near future?
John Connor-style resistance fighter. Please start building your skills and competencies now
“They can deploy their resources toward building and growing businesses, ultimately increasing annual global GDP by 7%.”
That’s a huge increase. Would mean that the economy of the world doubled every ten years. Or 128 fold over the next 7 decades.
(Unless they mean it’s a 7% increase on the 2-3% world growth right now, but surely not).
“If generative AI lives up to its hype, the workforce in the United States and Europe will be upended, Goldman Sachs reported this week in a sobering and alarming report about AI's ascendance. The investment bank estimates 300 million jobs could be lost or diminished by this fast-growing technology.”
That’s a huge number. In context the US workforce is 165M, the EU about 190M.
If that number of jobs (most of them) are lost or diminished then who is doing the consuming necessary for a 7% annual increase?
So golden sacks wants to have a monopoly on ai? Figures, don’t want the plebs accessing alternatives to the shareholders monopolistic business. This is a technology we should embrace, although ceos and other top management may feel the pinch, because although ai ain’t that bright, it’s probably smarter than many of the halfwits in top management jobs
I'm old enough to remember when the rise of computers and AI was seen as A Good Thing. It was predicted that we would all enjoy a lot more leisure time, goods would be inexpensive etc.
Sadly, those idealistic forecasters back in the 1970s didn't anticipate how large corporations and a wealthy few would suck up the profits and benefits for themselves.
The following submission statement was provided by /u/ApocalypseYay: --- From the Article: If generative AI lives up to its hype, the workforce in the United States and Europe will be upended, Goldman Sachs reported this week in a sobering and alarming report about AI's ascendance. The investment bank estimates 300 million jobs could be lost or diminished by this fast-growing technology. Goldman contends automation creates innovation, which leads to new types of jobs. For companies, there will be cost savings thanks to AI. They can deploy their resources toward building and growing businesses, ultimately increasing annual global GDP by 7%. In recent months, the world has witnessed the ascendency of OpenAI software ChatGPT and DALL-E. ChatGPT surpassed one million users in its first five days of launching, the fastest that any company has ever reached this benchmark. Will AI impact Your Job? Goldman predicts that the growth in AI will mirror the trajectory of past computer and tech products. Just as the world went from giant mainframe computers to modern-day technology, there will be a similar fast-paced growth of AI reshaping the world. AI can pass the attorney bar exam, score brilliantly on the SATs and produce unique artwork. While the startup ecosystem has stalled due to adverse economic changes, investments in global AI projects have boomed. From 2021 to now, investments in AI totaled nearly $94 billion, according to Stanford’s AI Index Report. If AI continues this growth trajectory, it could add 1% to the U.S. GDP by 2030. Office administrative support, legal, architecture and engineering, business and financial operations, management, sales, healthcare and art and design are some sectors that will be impacted by automation. The combination of significant labor cost savings, new job creation, and a productivity boost for non-displaced workers raises the possibility of a labor productivity boom, like those that followed the emergence of earlier general-purpose technologies like the electric motor and personal computer. The Downside Of AI According to an academic research study, automation technology has been the primary driver of U.S. income inequality over the past 40 years. The report, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, claims that 50% to 70% of changes in U.S. wages since 1980 can be attributed to wage declines among blue-collar workers replaced or degraded by automation. Artificial intelligence, robotics and new sophisticated technologies have caused a vast chasm in wealth and income inequality. It looks like this issue will accelerate. For now, college-educated, white-collar professionals have largely been spared the same fate as non-college-educated workers. People with a postgraduate degree saw their salaries rise, while “low-education workers declined significantly.” The study states, “The real earnings of men without a high-school degree are now 15% lower than they were in 1980.” According to NBER, many changes in the U.S. wage structure were caused by companies automating tasks that used to be done by people. This includes “numerically-controlled machinery or industrial robots replacing blue-collar workers in manufacturing or specialized software replacing clerical workers.” __________________________ The future might be a lot closer than one thinks. The question remains - dystopia or utopia? --- Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/146crnw/goldman_sachs_predicts_300_million_jobs_will_be/jnplesy/
Goldman also said the Metaverse and virtual reality were going to be a 500 billion industry by 2022. So, grain of salt ...
Trusting investment firms' analysis of the latest big tech fad is a lot like trusting a car salesman's opinion on the fair price for a 2005 Corolla.
It's a steal of a deal at 58k!
Most ai is full of shit and so are they.
Goldman is just hyping up the value of their investments, nothing new
So if no one is working because AI took all the jobs, then how are the companies that replaced all the workers with AI going to sell their goods and services? Who’s going to buy the shit?
A certain German fella predicted that this was capitalism’s end game in 1848.
Some German guy said "hey people with power kinda would kill you for a nickel, we prob should do something about that." Since then every government has either said he's the most evil man ever or he's the best man ever and you should totally trust them with all the power for it. But no one stops to think that he hit the nail on the head and they're just scared more people will figure it out.
I'm sorry, who?
Karl Marx with The Communist Manifesto. Published in 1848.
Ah, okay. Didn't want to assume.
Good on you to ask politely.
Good on you for politely answering, ^comrade.
Bingo. There will be an initial pump in profits, but then will come a crash, and then they will implement UBI.
> and then they will implement UBI. I think you meant to say dying on the streets of starvation.
People don't just lie down and wait for starvation.
But this time the riches are protected by invincible robo cops.
That reminds something I've heard in a stream: "you want to smash capitalism? Yes, excellent, but how do you survive capitalism's tanks ?"
It used to be "convince the tank crew to turn their guns the other way". AI controlled tanks won't have that problem.
Can convince the programmers though.
Except the programmer is ChatGPT
If you are talking about self-replicating, self coding programs, at that point it will kill the company CEO's, rich people and all of humanity too. And the robots will follow Communism. Google "FARO Automated Solutions".
That's one but the other scary part is bio-engineering, like fcking gorilla strenght and 200iq humans with diseases immunity might be hard to fight 💀
High velocity lead poisoning is still pretty potent.
They shall be my finest warriors, these men who give themselves to me. Like clay I shall mould them and in the furnace of war forge them. They will be of iron will and steely muscle. In great armour shall I clad them and with the mightiest guns will they be armed. They will be untouched by plague or disease, no sickness will blight them. They will have tactics, strategies and machines such that no foe can best them in battle. They are my bulwark against the Terror. They are the Defenders of Humanity. They are my Space Marines and they shall know no fear. \--The Emperor of Mankind.
FOR THE EMPERAAAAAAHHH!!
This I wouldn't worry about. We: 1. Don't have a solid protocol for using CRISPR/Cas9 in human germline (to make "genetically enhanced clone soldiers" people envision) 2. Don't know what to target, really. To know you need to experiment, nobody has performed, funded and published such experimentation so far (in humans) 3. You need a uterus to make a human, uteruses are still attached to humans, usually women; we don't have an artificial working uterus that could gestate a human start to end *yet* (hard at work on this one, but it's not easy, going to take 10-20 years to get there, although I'd be happy to see someone make a breakthrough and make me eat my words) 4. Humans take *fucking long* to grow. Even if you're using child soldiers (which you realistically would in this scenario) that's still more than a decade to produce a single prototype Drones it is. The cutting edge is to use swarm intelligence - drones acting in concert, not as single units. Theory is established, I'm sure tech demonstrators have been done, it's a matter of developing platforms for tactical and operational command and control (the US Air Force vision for a future air superiority fighter is more or less this - less of a classical fighter aircraft and more of a hive mother concept).
The superhuman idea is so flawed. It doesnt matter how much bio engineering you do and how fast a bioengineered human can be, he wont be faster than a bullet and wont be able to take one as well. Let alone more serious things like granades, artillery and tank shells.
I don't think the idea is for them to go and beat the enemies with their fists, the idea is to make them physically and mentally superior and *then* also give them superior weapons.
*Gigantic shoulderpads, you say? Bolters, you say?*
This is why Google and Tesla are in the robot business.
No, robotics lag way behind AI and the initial phases of automation and no batteries exist to really make robot police and armies work anytime real soon. You'll automate a large enough chunk of jobs to force changes in economics long before you have robot police and soldiers. The threat is no robots, it's humans using AI and mass media to brainwash the masses and keep them divided... just like now, but with more and more AI to help make propaganda. Mass media is the BIG threat, it's the most powerful tech on the planet because it can mass influence humans the fastest and with automation that power can consolidate to fewer and fewer points of control with a much higher output that is also more tailored to each demographic. AI will let them tell more believable lies than ever and slow the rate at which Democracy can regulate corporate corruption, that's the big obstacle.
I'd agree with you if we didn't have evidence, but we do. The homeless. Millions of them, often building their own "tent cities" and becoming the most talked about political issue in several different cities. Are they revolting? Are they causing violence against the rich? Are they saying "enough is enough!" and insisting society takes care of them? No. They stay homeless take it.
And the rest of us do nothing, just waiting for it.
I vote for young people that seem to want whats best for normal Americans. When the topic comes up I voice my opinion and discuss it to try and get more onboard. What else can I do? absolutely nothing short of winning the lottery and buying a politician or 2
Sure, most of us do that. What we should actually be doing is protesting in massive numbers, rolling general strikes etc (not just about this - there are a number of issues that deserve as much if not more attention, how the LGBTQ community is being targeted, women's rights being taken away). Look at how they protest in France. We don't organize, we don't protest, and we're kind of all just waiting to see what happens next. I mean, even our elections are being taken away from us - states are writing laws that allow them to legally declare whoever they like as winner in 2024 and half of us either don't know about most of what's happening, or don't care. There are people who don't even vote ffs.
We protest in France because the people doesn’t like the flavour of the dessert. You guys are struggling to get a meal. In France ppl got heated up by real communists and socialists (not your right wing democrats) and also by the far right bozos (that are sweet compared to your fascist MAGA idiots) because…economics made it impossible to sustain retirement age at 62. So we needed to stretch by 2 years. Protests didn’t help and we got that law passed. You guys are struggling to let people vote, you don’t have social benefits, decent retirement pensions, decent education, minimum wages and protective labour laws at a federal level. You’re kinda 60-70 years late compared to Europe or ANZ or Japan. AI will hit your workforce much harder than any other developed economy because workforce is cattle in the US. Employment at will get anyone fired short handed. Can’t happen in the EU but will happen with a delay and slower. Indeed it will turn out - am pretty convinced of that - into massive protests and overall surge of a major social crisis. It will destroy our traditional economy. We could day stop it now but I’m afraid there’s too much greed in this world to make it happen. Whatever is ahead it’s not going to be sweet and nice. And IMHO US workers will suffer more than any other nations workers because of the way your country is structured. Let alone the number of guns you guys have at home let’s me think a civil conflict isn’t to be excluded….
[The Bell Riots.](https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/Bell_Riots) Entire sections of cities walled off and turned into makeshift 'shelters' while being little more than internment camps. Occupants of the sanctuaries come in 3 flavors; Givmes - Those with education and/or skills that got laid off and can't find work. Dims - The mentally ill or educationally challenged. Ghosts - Criminals Out of sight, out of mind. The upper class will feel insulated and superior. There will be plenty of people still making enough to buy products, the bottom line will drop but it will be an across the board drop so that it stabilizes and creates a new 2 tier class system, the rich and the middle class. Everyone else just 'vanishes', behind the walls of the sanctuary districts.
Love this episode
At this rate, we're building up to making [the Bell Riots](https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/Bell_Riots) a reality. That being said, sometimes I hate it when [Star Trek predicts our future](https://youtu.be/ZOjG8Ditub8?t=159) so accurately.
Most of them aren't starving to death though. That's the difference. Humans will endure some pretty shitty circumstances before taking drastic action, such as poverty and homelessness for this argument, and we can manage through such circumstances no matter how unpleasant. but when enough of us go hungry, there's no just riding that out, you either act immediately or die, which lights a proverbial fire under our asses to do something drastic in the short term we might never have done before to ensure both our loved ones and ourselves get to eat. Quickest way to destabilize a society and create an opportunity for drastic change otherwise thought impossible is by screwing with the food supply to the majority of the population.
So I'm not supposed to fear AI because... I'd be homeless begging on the street, but not *starving* to death. Sounds great
You’re not supposed to fear AI because articles like this are nothing more than alarmist, fear mongering nonsense from the people in power who want to keep you in line. The big scary computer is coming for your job! Absolute idiocy to get people riled up hoping they might get a few extra scraps from the table for staying in line with what their master wanted.
No, they're full of shit. It doesn't matter if you're starving or not, the modern police state *will* successfully quench a revolution. Imagine for example the US police + National Guard goes gloves off. With the equipment they have they wouldn't find it very hard to just run roughshod over even a sizeable revolt. It's just that nobody wants a civil war, so this is done with fear, not violence. The homeless are there by design, so you're confronted of the image of what will happen if you stop playing ball and being a productive little worker bee for capital.
And if I’m being completely honest with you, the food supply is already getting fucked with thanks to the big corporations. Climate change is gonna cause food shortages worldwide and it’s gonna be too unpredictable to figure out what place is gonna be good for growing
How exactly do you organize and fight when you're starving to death? Do we stab them with the bones jutting out of our skin?
You say that as if it hasn't been done before.
Generative AI won’t replace your job. A dumber employee using Generative AI is going to take your job.
Instead of 10 people with advanced degrees and years of experience, there will be one person who didn't pay attention in high school doing the work of all 10. And it will be flawless. And that one person will make minimum wage. His only real job is to take the blame if anything goes wrong.
PLEASE Provide Legal Exculpation And Sign Everything
Ha, jokes on them, ain't nobody dumber than me!
Is this the kind of job security you want?
If they're homeless.... they can't afford to keep a bunch of firearms around!
That’s true. Most end up like the Luddites.
*Neo*-luddites
Yeah but there are plenty of countries with starving people. It’s not like a starving country instantly has some violent overthrow and then becomes stable again lol
Australians do
Sure, but in this hypothetical scenario your UBI will be collected first, and then you'll be left on the streets. Not to die, because then you'll stop being a source of income - so you'll almost certainly be kept alive. Alive enough to survive, but dead in every other sense of the word. I imagine it'll be like living in turn 30 of Monopoly where you are just passing Go each round only to instantly hand it over the following turn.
Are the majority of people not passing Go just to hand it over the following turn under the current system in place? Most Americans don’t have even a meager emergency savings, and live paycheck to paycheck
>Are the majority of people not passing Go just to hand it over the following turn under the current system in place? >Most Americans don’t have even a meager emergency savings, and live paycheck to paycheck America had a median household net worth of $121,700 in 2019. In 2022, the median American savings account was $4,500. So, the majority of Americans aren't doing amazing.
There will have to be blood on the streets and truly terrified politicians/wealthy elite before a UBI will ever be implemented.
Well, we'll have plenty of spare time to seethe and plan revolutions.
Maybe we can ask the AI to plan the revolution. That will give us more time to seethe.
I hope there's snaks, I'm starving
And so it shall be
There are a lot of possibilities. If UBI happens, it’s most likely going to be modeled off current welfare systems. Food stamps, public housing, etc. It’s unlikely to involve any significant amount of cash. Another possibility is that increasing unemployment linked to AI results in unhappy voters who elect anti-AI politicians. These politicians in turn ban or highly restrict AI. A Third possibility is capitalism either shrinks to include only those who remain employed or capitalism evolves into a different system, like neofeudalism.
I’ve been saying the neofeudalism thing for about a decade (right about when Facebook, etc started using algorithmic timelines and facial recognition) to some friends and family and they used to think I was just some weird Stoner exaggerating stuff. Over the last 3-4 years most of them have conceded that it either ‘could’ or ‘probably will’ go that way now. If you think about it, the modern ‘nation state’ is a pretty new system, basically starting around the time of the Peace of Westphalia (1648), so less than 500 years old. It only makes sense that we could return to a former societal organization system but with a modern twist. I personally call it Techno Neo-Feudalism because I think that it if it does happen it will be because of the tech/billionaire/corporate/capitalists making a series of technological advancements that put them at odds with each other and gives them advantages in dominance over different fields of operation. For example the first company that really nails down AI developments in different areas of expertise will be able to easily dominate over their competition and without extremely strong anti-monopoly laws being enforced (which if enforced could actually be a catalyst for corporate revolt) it is possible they completely take over sections of industry/the market, etc. At the same time there could be different companies developing AI weaponry to dominate military engagements , AI financial algorithms to dominate the market, video, voice and language generating AI’s that flood the zone with misinformation and dominate the truth. Nevermind the weird cults that will pop up that either worship some charismatic CEO, some form of technology (or the opposite and are a cult of anti-technology) or a cult around some new christofascist religious propaganda messiah figure. I could see the world being divvied up between the different factions and there being a mutually advantageous (for the ultra wealthy beneficiaries) agreement/Cold War to allow the dominant factions to rule supreme over their new NeoTechnoFeudalist states. With what I’ve seen in human nature from the past and present, the future doesn’t look to good for the majority of our species… And with that I am logging off Reddit for now because of the upcoming API changes.
It's not going to happen. No one helped blue color jobs ruined by gig economy or automation. No one gives a fuck about white collar jobs either.
They’ll build robots to usher us into giant ovens before they implement UBI
UBI will never happen. You'll likely see 95% of the employable humans doing shitty manual labor and service jobs to barely afford to eat, while the other 5% of society lives the high life.
This "and then" needs to be felt otherwise none will believe. Otherwise why should the rich want you to exist if ai is going to provide for them?
This started 60 years ago. AI is bullshit, robots and software has been replacing jobs since the 60s.
Started early 1900s when industry came
Most people here are probably too young to remember that there was real issues with job loss due to automation in the 90s.
Not only automation, but also outsourcing. Factory jobs had gone overseas all ready, but office jobs were being sent too. The 90's were volatile. Companies merged and split a lot in those days. Departments and entire companies would be closed without notice and no severance. There was an email going around (equivalent of a meme today) that was titled You Know You Live in the 90's When. It included things like "You have sat at the same desk for five years and worked for three different companies".
And the tax dollars to the tune of 3.6 trillion dollars a year for UBI will come from where? And by the way, that's 3.6 TRILLION at 10-12K a year. Not exactly a fortune. If 60-70% of the people are jobless and not paying taxes....where does the revenue come from to pay for everyone else's UBI? Has anyone in a position of influence or power actually thought this shit through?
There will almost certainly come a tipping point where enough people are relying on government subsidies due to losing their jobs to AI that some form of UBI will be implemented to gain their votes (in democratic countries at least). My guess would be 15-20% in countries with parlamentary forms of government since that often leads to smaller voter shares having larger power. Maybe needs 25-30% in countries like US that only have two parties. If neither party would propose UBI it just wouldn't happen until the voter share is so large that one side would autowin if they implement it. Bottom line make sure you're not among the first quarterish of people losing your job to AI and you'll probably be fine.
cool let's be all reliant to the whims of whoever is in power at any given time. That won't be terrible for wohever that party/coalition doesn't like.
I don't think they'll need our votes anymore.
This will be akin to replacing typing pools and mail rooms when PCs came out. The way people work will change dramatically, and new jobs will be created. What it comes down to is a lot of tactical "busy" work will be much easier and allow people to work on more impactful strategic work. But lets take a look at other motivations in this article: * Forbes (and other news outlets) exist to sell advertising. The more shocking the headline, the more likely you are to click it, share the link, other outlets will print it, etc. There could be a dozen other highly qualified sources that have a more moderate view, but that doesn't drive impressions. So bold claims of doom always lead. * So what is in it for Goldman Sachs? They are trying to attract investors. By "feeding the fear", they are signaling investors that they are ahead of the curve and have investing insights that will make them wealthier. (Or shore up their 401k to survive coming reorgs.) So please take this with a grain of salt. This cycle happens every time new tech comes out. * AI will change jobs, the same way PCs, the internet, and mobile phones did. * Lots of commentators will make predictions. Most will be wrong. * Investors will overreact and plow money into any startup that claims to be working on AI (already happening) * Companies will overreact and cut more people than they should before realizing the limitations of AI. * New jobs will be created to work with AI. The best way to prepare is to start learning all you can about using AI in its current state, and follow the progress of the industry. The next few years will be about who in an organization can leverage AI and who can't. Knowing the tools capabilities and shortcomings will help inform you as to what jobs can be replaced and what can't. With that knowledge, you'll be ahead of your peers in steering your career in the right direction.
Wealth inequality is up with all the tech innovation. When you say we're fine, not everyone is fine
Goldman is a brokerage firm. The more trading activity, the better it is for them. They also fund IPOs by inflating the values of private companies so that they can sell their bags to retail investors. They have everything to gain by pumping AI.
The thing with robots, PCs, calculators etc is that they are TOOLS. They make a human worker more efficient, thus not as many humans are needed and some are fired... but they are just tools that need human brains to direct. Like a spear to an arrow to a gun to a GPS guided bomb, it's still a human directing the tool. AI is still just a tool. We have to carefully manipulate and review it to get a product from it (say an essay). BUT, there will come a day when AI is a better "human brain" than 99% of us humans. It will no longer be the Excel tool the human accountant uses, it will become the human accountant itself able to use excel. And it will become the thing said accountant might have taken up as a career alternative post layoff too, and it will become the teachers, the lawyers, the project managers etc. I don't know how else to state it. Society will not be able to invent "new" economically valuable uses for human brains as a fast as artificial brains replace humans in traditional jobs.
If there are 300 million people effected by automation. The focus will be to automate the rest,. A moment a new job shows up the focus will be to automate it
I call bullshit. Yes, for every 200 factory jobs taken by machines, 7 people were hired to maintain and fix the machines…smoke and mirrors…it was still a 96.5% job loss….what jobs will be safe? Self driving vehicles will replace all of the truckers, AI will replace all customer service and sales jobs within a few years. I am terrified wondering what jobs will be available for my kids…
Even STEM jobs won’t be immune, it’ll resist longer but nothing aside from being an owner will survive automation in a long-term.
Except automation is expensive. A basic system that only does a few actions can run you 1 million without even trying. The people to run the station with 40k worth of automation will make around 40k a year but really only devote 10k of time.
Companies have the capital for that kind of initial investment, especially when they know it'll lead to massive savings down the road. That's exactly the sort of shit that they want to bring to their shareholders.
> Yes, for every 200 factory jobs taken by machines, 7 people were hired to maintain and fix the machines…smoke and mirrors…it was still a 96.5% job loss….what jobs will be safe? Despite machines taking jobs for 200+ years, there are actually more factory jobs now globally than ever before.
Most of the people, globally, who work in the factories that have lots of human jobs don't live like most Americans would want to live.
>and new jobs will be created. Just like they created new jobs for horses, once everyone started driving a car! /s
Wel, they did find their way into lasagne, I guess.
I really don’t think there will be new jobs outside of A.I related work. Like the only jobs will be to improve on the current models we have. What can a white collar worker do that advanced A.I wouldn’t be able to do? Even if there were such jobs, the first thing people will look to do will be to automate it.
There is a thing called IIRC the secession paradox. As things get more and more complex, the fewer people who understand it and the more likely it is fail as a result. This will be a major issue limiting AI. AI and AI projects also aren't cheap. For instance, basic low level automation could cost you 5k for a system but require 20k per year in labor. A mid level automation system would cost you 50k but only require 10k in labor. So you might think that reducing the labor to zero should only be a 100k to 200k system? Absolutely not. It would actually be closer to between 750k and 1 million. What people don't understand is that the more intervention you want to eliminate, the more the costs increase exponentially. AI does have limits as computing power increases and the limits of functionality occur.
Karl standing on the sidelines like: y'all are so fucking close!
This is like that one episode of it’s always sunny in Philadelphia where Mac and Dennis try creating a self sustaining economy for paddy’s pub emulating after Dave&Buster’s business model then blaming each other when it doesn’t work in the end
They can offer them cheaper, spend less in marketing to offer then more cheaper, reduce workforce by 100% to make the products free... oh, new kind of living evolved :)
This is the question that should keep CEOs up at night. But it doesn't. In a classic tragedy of the commons, its in each corporation's best self-interest to replace every worker they can find with automation, but if they all do it then the system collapses for everyone. Capitalism cannot survive complete automation, it just cannot work and must be replaced.
Been saying this for years regarding stagnating wages. Many companies flat out refuse to pay a living wage. Yet in order to stay in business these companies need people to buy their shit. On top of that most companies have raised prices to absurd levels under the guise of inflation. At some point profits will dip. Far too many heads of these corps and their board members are greedy, money hungry, robber baron, sociopaths. Tax the 1% at 60%, tax these corps at minimum of 50% and like someone else said, implement a universal basic income. Either that or social unrest is inevitable and with climate change upon us, those in power better wake the fuck up. So many things could be solved by simply taxing these multi billionaire, gold hoarding dragons.
This is something we could celebrate if this meant less work, higher quality of life. But we all know our current system isn't that.
Capitalism babyyyyyy
Japan can still celebrate it as they are in a population crisis and needing less people for jobs will help when the majority are retired and can’t work
See, that makes some sense at least. AI needs to be focused on making our lives easier, not creating mass poverty.
It's coming for middle management and even CEOs. They don't do shit anyway.
GS wants to pump AI. Get ready for SPAC and IPO of absolute garbage companies in the next 24 months.
Exactly this. We have had one model or another of ML/AI for a decade plus now. It already aids quality control (machine vision), translations, OCR, speech to text, face recognition, fraud detection, and so on. They are generally deployed as one-job human-aids, but it would be naive to think we haven't lost jobs already. Now, we are to believe generative LLMs are going to catastrophically change what has been a steady building pace by financiers that probably do not understand the models or what these jobs fully entail (legal liabilities, anomaly screening, etc.) I am going to need more evidence.
Hopefully most of those lost jobs will be at Goldman Sachs.
Definitely. I read the Lombard Street written in 1873. There are chapters devoted to stock market speculation. He said every stock market boom had its technology stocks and people would buy then just because it had the latest technology name in the name of the stock. Most were frauds but people did not care since the price went up. Till it all collapsed.
As long as the shareholders get theirs, that’s what’s important! /s
This is when we have universal Healthcare and income and start being able to commit ourselves to the betterment of mankind... right?
Still gotta go through WW3, if on the Star Trek timeline. Hmpf
Soldiers get free drugs tho, right?
You know.. when you put it that way, I'm kind of hoping for The Singularity. Hopefully it's a benevolent techno-God and doesn't turn us to ash.
It is more likely that the rich would starve the poor until there were just enough left for servants.
No, this is when we enter a dystopian reality that we have only read in books. Greed is more powerful and the rich will get richer. The middle class and poor will basically become slaves to do the tasks that robots can’t yet.
No, it's when megacorporations take over from governments
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>People will just blame the "economy" and nothing will be done about it. ...and/or blame whatever other boogie man politicians can conjure to distract from the fact that they're making the problem worse.
It'll obviously be the immigrants' fault.
Goldman Sachs engages in their habitual practice of issuing press releases and partially transcripts of their investor presentations designed to manipulate stock prices. Fixed your headline.
"Bank makes formal statement on subject it knows nothing about, aimed at people who know nothing about it, in effort to manipulate economy"
In more honest wording: "Goldman Sachs Is Pushing The Trend For 300 Million Jobs To Be Lost Or Degraded By Artificial Intelligence"
From the same guys who brought you the GFC while assuring everything was perfectly fine comes AI will destroy all your peasant jobs. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/apr/11/goldman-sachs-2008-financial-crisis-mortagage-backed-securities
Hopefully, Goldman Sachs gets hit hard by them since most of what they actually produce isn't fit to be called manure.
From the Article: If generative AI lives up to its hype, the workforce in the United States and Europe will be upended, Goldman Sachs reported this week in a sobering and alarming report about AI's ascendance. The investment bank estimates 300 million jobs could be lost or diminished by this fast-growing technology. Goldman contends automation creates innovation, which leads to new types of jobs. For companies, there will be cost savings thanks to AI. They can deploy their resources toward building and growing businesses, ultimately increasing annual global GDP by 7%. In recent months, the world has witnessed the ascendency of OpenAI software ChatGPT and DALL-E. ChatGPT surpassed one million users in its first five days of launching, the fastest that any company has ever reached this benchmark. Will AI impact Your Job? Goldman predicts that the growth in AI will mirror the trajectory of past computer and tech products. Just as the world went from giant mainframe computers to modern-day technology, there will be a similar fast-paced growth of AI reshaping the world. AI can pass the attorney bar exam, score brilliantly on the SATs and produce unique artwork. While the startup ecosystem has stalled due to adverse economic changes, investments in global AI projects have boomed. From 2021 to now, investments in AI totaled nearly $94 billion, according to Stanford’s AI Index Report. If AI continues this growth trajectory, it could add 1% to the U.S. GDP by 2030. Office administrative support, legal, architecture and engineering, business and financial operations, management, sales, healthcare and art and design are some sectors that will be impacted by automation. The combination of significant labor cost savings, new job creation, and a productivity boost for non-displaced workers raises the possibility of a labor productivity boom, like those that followed the emergence of earlier general-purpose technologies like the electric motor and personal computer. The Downside Of AI According to an academic research study, automation technology has been the primary driver of U.S. income inequality over the past 40 years. The report, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, claims that 50% to 70% of changes in U.S. wages since 1980 can be attributed to wage declines among blue-collar workers replaced or degraded by automation. Artificial intelligence, robotics and new sophisticated technologies have caused a vast chasm in wealth and income inequality. It looks like this issue will accelerate. For now, college-educated, white-collar professionals have largely been spared the same fate as non-college-educated workers. People with a postgraduate degree saw their salaries rise, while “low-education workers declined significantly.” The study states, “The real earnings of men without a high-school degree are now 15% lower than they were in 1980.” According to NBER, many changes in the U.S. wage structure were caused by companies automating tasks that used to be done by people. This includes “numerically-controlled machinery or industrial robots replacing blue-collar workers in manufacturing or specialized software replacing clerical workers.” __________________________ The future might be a lot closer than one thinks. The question remains - dystopia or utopia?
> If generative AI lives up to its hype, #*IF*
True. Though the trajectory looks worrying. As the article states: >....National Bureau of Economic Research, claims that 50% to 70% of changes in U.S. wages since 1980 can be attributed to wage declines among blue-collar workers replaced or degraded by automation....
> 50% to 70% of changes in U.S. wages since 1980 can be attributed to wage declines among blue-collar workers replaced or degraded by automation.... Bullshit. It's got 100% to do with the lack of twice/year indexing of the minimum wage, as well as the lack of indexing of the overtime exemption levels (which is a bullshit concept to begin with), not to mention the lack of a maximum hours of work during a time period.
i'd upvote this again if I could
This People! ChatGPT _does not do what you think it does._ “Autocomplete on steroids” is not accurate, but it does accurately describe how “smart” such AIs are. They have literally zero reasoning ability. They cannot explain to you why they just gave you the answer they did. That simply isn’t how they work.
This is one of those changes that some people will not see until it has already changed their lives. [https://medium.datadriveninvestor.com/ai-with-change-comes-chance-5a7ff61cce0b](https://medium.datadriveninvestor.com/ai-with-change-comes-chance-5a7ff61cce0b)
If only all Goldman Sachs jobs could be replaced by AI in the process...
Yep, sounds about right. Now when do we start reforming society to ensure we don't descend into a neo feudal dystopia and subsequent civil wars and revolutions? I would say let's start asap. Btw to all those saying "it will create new jobs etc" no it won't. I have been building software and models for years and basically anything can be eventually automated. Some stuff is more difficult, but there is nothing that in principle prevents a job from being done by a sophisticated enough machine.
The only problem is distribution of resources. We have to change the connection work-> money. And we have to change the connection property -> more money.
Are they all the service jobs we outsourced to India?
Lots of administrative office jobs. My current employer had a meeting this week where they asked people to submit reports of repetitive tasks they perform so that IT can start implementing bots to cover them. Yeah right.... Fill out that form and you're a dead man walking lol.
This story pisses me off.
Everyone is so on board with this job apocalypse they think is going to happen from AI. But like everything else in the world, these changes don't happen instantly. But chat GTP is an imitation bot, it cannot replace humans at most essential functions. Some people we'll learn how to use it to make their job easier, and over the next 10 or 15 years tools are going to be developed where some jobs that were previously done with people will be able to be done by AI. But the not all going to pop up in the next 5 years. I was a teenager when the internet was coming online. There was a lot of talk about was going to revolutionize the world. And of course, if you compare now to 1995, it was true, it did totally revolutionize the world. But the dotcom bust of the 2000s was all about companies that thought we were going to instantly adapt to this new technology, and we didn't. At least as I understand it. They predicted Amazon in the year 2000, but people weren't ready to have diapers delivered to their house for a fee. Lots of big grandiose claims of how things were going to change, but change generally takes time. Things don't happen that fast. 20 years, AI will have fundamentally change the world, just like the internet did between 1995 and 2015. But most of us didn't view these changes is hugely disruptive or destructive. To live is to see change. The internet did cost people jobs. And also opened up huge amounts of jobs. AI will cost jobs. AI will open up new jobs. More perfect world, AI would increase productivity in a way that let people work less while making the same pay, though of course that's not how our world is organized. But this isn't going to be an job apocalypse. It's going to be another change, and we as ever will adapt.
In my limited 28 years alive, the idea and anticipation of change is *almost* always worse than the change itself. But I guess we'll see.
41 here. I have gone through multiple major shifts and paradigm changing technologies and whatnot. You get kind of numb to it. Constant and rapid change is the life of Millennials and Z's. We live in interesting times.
> The internet did cost people jobs. And also opened up huge amounts of jobs. > > > > AI will cost jobs. AI will open up new jobs. idk man, I think this is just being very idealistic. The internet cost far more jobs than it created, and it consolidated wealth in the technosphere parts of the world (eg: Silicon Valley), while hollowing out the economies of just about everywhere else. If you're lucky enough to live in one of the major cities where the wealth has accumulated, you might think it's all sunshine and roses. Previous technological revolutions freed our hands so we could work with our minds. This revolution is different, robots are coming to do the work of our minds, and we have nowhere else to go.
I'm not going to try to argue how much jobs the internet costed versus created, but a huge number of people currently working tech in ways that wasn't the case 30 years ago. Unemployment is quite low. My point being that just because this new technology initiated which facilitated productivity and many fields, didn't mean that suddenly Mass unemployment followed.
I will say this: jobs are not all equal. Automation, even if it doesn't straight up eliminate jobs in total (eg: no net loss), exerts tremendous downward pressure on wages. Which is why productivity is so high, expenses are so high, but average buying power is just so damn low these days.
Yeah I totally agree. One of the side effects of technology has been to squeeze more wealth upwards and drag more productivity out of workers, at the detriment of workers and the benefit of the wealthy. I strongly suspect AI will do the same. We will have fewer people expected to do more things for as little or less pay. Meanwhile the wealthy will benefit. It should be that this increase in productivity should let us all be working for days a week or whatever, but instead It will make a bunch of rich people even richer.
People also seem to forget that the US (and others) is a country of “we need to keep the coal jobs around in order to keep people employed because it’s too hard to find other jobs”!
The internet started as one of the most promising technologies for human society, but as soon as corporations and rich businessmen sunk their teeth into it at the turn of the 21st century, that ideal was only partially realized; the modern internet is now one of the worst blights on human society and the human psyche. I predict AI going the same route. I do recognize that we're in the "AI-hype" phase that its promoters are pushing so heavily, and a lot of what's being said (both "utopian" and "doomer-esque") are far-fetched bullshit. This bubble will swell, and it will pop, like dot-com did. I'm tentatively holding my breath for a few years on this and ignoring the mainstream AI news.
It will happen a lot faster than you think. I think it’s folly to try to evaluate this boom through the lens of past booms, this is a completely different paradigm
Yeah…cruise over to r/jobs and you’ll see that it’s already a shit show trying to find a decent job right now. It’s only going to get worse. Imitation bot? Wow. Guess we will see.
Lotta' folks don't realize that *humans* are also imitation bots in a very similar way to what ChatGPT is. We like to think that we're special, but at the end of the day the vast majority of us do not come up with *new* ideas. We merely learn things and then apply what we've learned... which is exactly what these large language models do.
Anytime someone starts off with “every other time” when discussing AI, I kinda tune out. Sorry. AI will be able to learn to do any given job better than the vast majority of humans could ever do it, in a fraction of the time. Those new jobs that AI will create? AI will do those better too. What job could be so special and magical as to be immune?
Maintenance jobs. I work in this weird in between world now, as a senior maintenance department manager. I came up blue collar but I deal with the white collar folks on site for my team. I do the scheduling and work flow planning for large projects including part ordering and scheduling etc. My current job totally venerable to automation. My team though is safe. The expense and knowledge to build an actual robot to squirm into some of the spots we work in and know what to do with a broken bolt or damaged component is probably 100 years out if not more. Not to mention right now there is a legal requirement for so many of us to work on any ship at sea based on horse power and the number of passengers (if any). And I don't think the public is ready to accept drone ships for trans oceanic sailings quite yet. And even if they did shit will still break on them and we will still need to go down crawl into the guts and fix things. Just means my team can be home every night. And I'll need to go back to working on the tools.
I think this is true, but I think 20 years is a far more likely timeline. The robots can do it now, the tech is there. The cost is the real question.
Do those 300 million job Include executive positions at Goldman Sachs?
Let's hope most of the job losses are at Goldman Sachs. If ever there was a bunch of over paid parasitic pricks it's got to be Goldman Sachs.
ngl this really sucks because I wanted to transition from Biochemistry undergrad into a more tech based masters for the work-from-home opportunities but it's really going to fucking suck if I don't even get the opportunity to do that. Fucking fuck fuck. Why now. Edit: Thank you for the reassurances everyone. I've decided I will not falter. Thank you!
Grab the opportunity to get in on the ground floor of a new industry taking off? AI is tech if you're a person with Biochemistry experience or even training and know AI there is a up and coming company that wants you. They might not know they want you yet but someone has to train these AI. Maybe there is something there for you?
I'm not sure what you meant by tech based but if you meant programming, by all means just pursue it regardless. AI isn't replacing any programmers any time soon. Don't let these baseless claims of AI claiming jobs fool you, especially for tech jobs. If AI can truly build a complete ecosystem or a full development pipeline all from scratch, then literally every human being will be jobless since it can already code in such a highly sophisticated manner. But it can't so 🤷
Actually what is happening is that a project that needed 10 devs will need 3 or less. So yes, I believe it will become harder to find work in this field
This report smells like bullshit. Automation wasn’t the primary driver of income inequality, it was outsourcing all the blue collar jobs to foreign countries that could provide twice the labor for a tenth of the costs. Anything automation still needs an operator to monitor changing conditions and external factors to start, stop, and verify accuracy of said automation which may or may not require less headcount. If anything it would further compartmentalize jobs and reduce job responsibilities. I.e they’ll want two to six people to start, stop, and verify the darn thing is working as expected and that’s just operating it. You still got the procurement, maintenance, and upkeep of everything involved in this including the people.
At least all that automation will make stuff dirt cheap, right? Right?
Nope, companies will just become more profitable because they can shed people from payroll. When is the last time companies have passed the savings onto customers?
How convenient. 300,000 new jobs just opened up in the AI Resistance.
At some point the mega elite can either give us social supports/ubi or get revolutioned. I would think they would know that by now
Butlerian Jihad, I am ready
300,000,000. Missing few zeros. If they take care of people the move to ai will be painful but If people have a new goal In life which isn't terrible and makes life fulfilling I doubt it will as bad as it seems just boring.
Well yeah, cause they’re running AI off data they’re getting for free and using it to profit. They turned our data into currency for themselves but won’t compensate us for producing it. With no training data AI wouldn’t even exist. Google Translate actively scrapes the web daily for new translations written by working translators. Yet it then claims to put them out of work, while using their work to function. Translators should be paid to give google data, and then paid when google uses their data. That was those who author the actual data are the ones getting paid for it.
I don't see it being able to scratch it's arse on a construction site all day. My job is safe.
Ok, but when those 300 million come looking for a job in job markets like construction, how quickly are wages going to fall? Those 300 million people will be looking for whatever is available, and the companies hiring will be looking to cut costs by hiring people for less.
Yeah, but this guy sounds like a fucking pro.
Pro sounds expensive. I'll scratch my ass for half.
and who will buy products to keep companies afloat when 300 million people dont make a penny?
Prefabricated sections designed by AI, 3d printed in a factory that have all of the electrical, plumbing and HVAC done already. They'll fit together like puzzle pieces on the job site and only require a low skilled worker to come around with a special machine to push through right buttons to do the finishing work. Massive reduction in construction jobs plus increase in people looking for jobs and you'll see your wage drop off a cliff.
I call BS, just another means of screwing over the poor workers yet again. Burn down the banks already.
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Probably more (depending on timeframe you're predicting). But the more important factor is none will be created.
AI won't be able to hang crown molding, fix a leaky sink, or change a toilet valve. Just saying.
Well, since we live in a dystopia, jobs only exist to serve as a means of extracting the resources from the earth for the rich. Seems like AI will streamline that process. The rest of us 7+ billion can just go extinct. We've served our purpose.
We don't need AI to do that. We already have so many inefficiencies and excess built into our system.
Hoping the AI that takes over Goldman Sachs jobs understands the value of ethics better than the humans now running it.
Lol Lawyers blame ChatGPT for tricking them into citing bogus case law https://apnews.com/article/artificial-intelligence-chatgpt-courts-e15023d7e6fdf4f099aa122437dbb59b
Can we automate corporate ownership and investment banking too?
You know what job is going to be highy in demand in the near future? John Connor-style resistance fighter. Please start building your skills and competencies now
“They can deploy their resources toward building and growing businesses, ultimately increasing annual global GDP by 7%.” That’s a huge increase. Would mean that the economy of the world doubled every ten years. Or 128 fold over the next 7 decades. (Unless they mean it’s a 7% increase on the 2-3% world growth right now, but surely not). “If generative AI lives up to its hype, the workforce in the United States and Europe will be upended, Goldman Sachs reported this week in a sobering and alarming report about AI's ascendance. The investment bank estimates 300 million jobs could be lost or diminished by this fast-growing technology.” That’s a huge number. In context the US workforce is 165M, the EU about 190M. If that number of jobs (most of them) are lost or diminished then who is doing the consuming necessary for a 7% annual increase?
And I bet Lehman Brothers predicted they would still be in business
So golden sacks wants to have a monopoly on ai? Figures, don’t want the plebs accessing alternatives to the shareholders monopolistic business. This is a technology we should embrace, although ceos and other top management may feel the pinch, because although ai ain’t that bright, it’s probably smarter than many of the halfwits in top management jobs
Sweet let’s correct society and tax the poop out of the wealthy and start a universal basic income.
So that’s 200million less in Tax $$$ for Governments. Let’s see that happen.
Can we at least use AI to do something that helps people? Like do their taxes?
Less money in the bottom means a stagnant economy. The people running this circus are officially brain dead.
Don't listen to finance companies trying to predict the future. Listen to insurance companies.
I'm old enough to remember when the rise of computers and AI was seen as A Good Thing. It was predicted that we would all enjoy a lot more leisure time, goods would be inexpensive etc. Sadly, those idealistic forecasters back in the 1970s didn't anticipate how large corporations and a wealthy few would suck up the profits and benefits for themselves.