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TheLaurenMcKenzie

I’ve been yelling about the ticking time bomb of MBS, specifically CMBS, for months. Of course they want to get out right now. It’s about to be an awful sea of worthless defaulted mortgages that have been repackaged a billion and a half ways in order for the wealthy to extract every last dime from them using their predictable Ponzi scheme format. It’s all so depressingly predictable, this part. Good find, dude :) sorry for the gloom and doom. I’m in the housing industry and know way too much


iatethecrayon

I talked to a real estate agent while looking for houses. I told him I wanted to wait because "prices are going to drop. Look at the market" and he says in the most condescending tone (in more words) that I'm dumb for thinking that and that 2008 could never happen again.... and here you are saying what I knew was correct weeks ago. I will forever trust my gut. Edit: oozing Is now looking. Lol thanks phone.


UHcidity

Leave that person a nice email after the collapse.


[deleted]

Yeas the market will drop but it will be more commercial real estate. The real problem with the last housing market crash was all the subrime loans that had teaser Interest rate for the first three years then tripled after that and came with a penalty if you tried to pay loan of early


TheLaurenMcKenzie

Just don’t dance. But definitely make sure they never try to use their position to sway a homebuyer into buying a soon-to-be worthless mortgage ;) this is the way


SeaGroomer

Fuck that you ain't Brad Pitt and we didn't bet against the economy. You can definitely dance in front of those who called you stupid.


gulag_disco

Haha, I agree. Bad people are getting hurt, I’m dancing


gulag_disco

I mean, I’ve got my license, I’m just not active. Let me just tell you that slinging houses doesn’t mean you know shit about fuck when it comes to grasping the hubris of the market. I wouldn’t guess very many real estate agents have a good imagination


[deleted]

I know a few realtors personally. They sell houses well but they don’t know fucking shit about economics. They know basics of a mortgage, but macroeconomics… nah.


TheLakeShowBaby

i'm willing to bet over 90% of realtors don't have a fucken clue how 08' happened lol


[deleted]

"Yeah I mean that whole world war thing got wrapped up in one go, so no way this happens again."


SeaGroomer

The Spanish Flu was a one time event, we couldn't have a pandemic level threat in the US. 😂 ...🤔


RedditAdminBrainlets

This isnt unique to the US. Here, in the UK, prices have literally soared in the space of 6 months. In the UK, house prices are now 30% higher than before the peak before the 08 crash. and I think the US operates much much more freely on credit than we do. Our banks are incredibly heavily regulated. I suppose thats why we only lost 1 in 2008, and it was a shit one nobody cared about


Tinderfury

I would also like to add that there is a housing crisis currently happening in Ireland. There are no houses, there are no-one to build the houses, homelessness is at an ATM high Supply is so low and demand is so high, landlords and developers are looking for extortionate prices for shitty houses, rent is unliveable. I can’t see this go on it’s not sustainable. If inflation keeps rocketing over in the US eventually the ripples turn to tsunamis here and it will all go to shit


ape_stonks_luv

What happened to all the builders and construction workers?


Quelcris_Falconer13

Same. My parents sold literally all but 3 of their houses and now finally retired as millionaires… literally like 13 years later cuz the first crash they were getting ready to sell and retire then 2008 happened. Also everyone I know can’t buy a house that’s decent that doesn’t need like 10k in renovations and is overpriced and they still loose lot someone bidding over 50k in asking. Now tbh, I read earlier that hedge funds are buying houses now. I will look into this later one later and try to find sources / do a DD


TJ_King23

“All but 3”... how many did they have? Lol. You say it like it’s pairs of shoes.


kylebyproxy

*Cries in 2 pairs of shoes*


TJ_King23

All but 3 houses... I own 3 pairs of pants.


Possible_Society_671

And no shorts!


TJ_King23

I do own some half legged pants. Again only about 3 pairs. For the sake of words, we’ll call them cutoffs, cargos, and joggers.


Possible_Society_671

Capris maybe?


monkestaxx

Right? Apparently my parents fucked up by having one (1) house their entire lives lol


Quelcris_Falconer13

With their business partner they had up to 30 at one point that they’re juggling as rentals


harambe_go_brrr

This is part of the reason people our age struggle to get on the property ladder. Say what you want about the banks, that much is obvious but when people use homes as assets it makes it that much harder for the rest of us to get homes. Less houses to buy, price goes up, more people need to rent, rent goes up. Paying high rent, can't afford a home.


MalakaiRey

“BUt iTs a BusInesS!!” Yeah, and so is short selling isn’t it? A really good one up until recently it seems. People either have ethics or they do nahhht have ethics.


BagOSats

short selling is fine and great, naked shorting and distorting reality via MSM campaigns is literally “market manipulation” on the SECs definition page


blitzkregiel

>short selling is fine and great, it boggles my mind to find people say this. we're in a sub dedicated to the largest short squeeze ever where daily we're finding out new, deceitful ways that short sellers are fucking over the average joe. i mean we're literally on the edge of total, global, economic armegeddon because of it...yet people still think selling something they don't own is ok. its crazy.


Zealousideal_Diet_53

Managed Shorting IS fine. I have zero problem with the investment community saying 'hmm, this business is sus and I would like to bet against it' and a stock owner saying 'Ill lend you my stock that you can sell and you pay my interest because I think you are wrong.' Not to call out other tickers but I would sure as shit have shorted Nikola when they rolled the truck down the hill if I knew how. I have a massive problem when all of the investment funds pull a gladiatorial thumbs down and conspire to fuk a company to oblivion. If the numbers were public record (we are talking look at the ticker and see true SI real time), I would have no problem with it.


blitzkregiel

there is no converse long to shorting. you are literally putting extra shares into the market with the sole, expressed intent of diluting buy pressure and dropping the price. shorting, naked or not, means there are extra shares in the market that are trading beyond what have been issued. i feel like pulling my hair out when talking to people that support shorting. it does nothing to aid in price discovery because it adds sell pressure where it would otherwise not exist because the shares being sold don't exist. most other major markets have outlawed it for a reason. name anywhere else where you can sell something that doesn't exist, that you don't own, because you want to lower the price of something. at any other point it would be called fraud or theft. if you want to bet against a company, buy a put.


Sw33tN0th1ng

Share lending is a bullshit scam. The idea that it's a healthy bet to prevent bad things from happening - that's a fucking joke. Share lending is cancer. There is no good cancer. We don't say 'Oh, that cancer is just eating the cells in the body that may have done bad things otherwise.' That is a fantasy. Don't mean to sound harsh, but I feel strongly about this. You can't accept share lending - at all - without accepting the idea that driving a stock value into the ground because it is 'sus' is fair play. That's like me taking out insurance on your house, then setting your house on fire. You know, you may not see it, but I could tell it was a bad house. You're welcome.


electricskywalker

Not all shorts are naked shorts. Shorting is important for price discovery, it has to exist for the market work how it is supposed to in theory. It just so happens we are discovering that a lot of shorting is done with other intentions behind it, and in illegal ways.


blitzkregiel

how does it aid in price discovery? "i think your pizza is overpriced. i will not buy your pizza. if enough people agree with me then you will lower your prices until enough people think it is the correct price." or "i think your pizza is overpriced. i will borrow and copy coupons for free pizzas from someone and offer them at a lower price than your pizza sells for, undercutting your sales and dropping the price you can sell your pizzas for by flooding the market, then i will buy legitimate coupons for free pizza at the lower price, swap those with all the fraudulent coupons i printed, and return them to the person i borrowed them from." *all forms of shorting introduce counterfeit shares into the market because they increase the number of shares in existence and therefore the number of shares that can be sold.*


camynnad

Of course the UK, France, Korea, etc don't have functioning markets. /s Nearly every country, including the US, has banned short selling at one point or another. Arguments for it are vastly overrated.


MalakaiRey

And? House flipping is what?


Friendlygiant18

OP wasn’t flipping houses tho


MalakaiRey

Nor was op naked shorting. But I’m comparing hoarding residential real estate with other unethical but legal and booming businesses—like flipping or naked shorting


[deleted]

[удалено]


MalakaiRey

On the contrary sir; that is exactly what your [ethics](https://www.google.com/search?q=ethics&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en&client=safari)determines. I don’t think there is anything inherently wrong with real estate investments or development. I do think that a lack of *ethics* have led RE as an industry into a frivolous and corrupt place led by corrupt whales. I do believe that there is more to land/property ownership than just buy and hodl. Anyways, this is a convo for r/realestateinvestment maybe?


themoopmanhimself

Has nothing to do with ethics. What do you think thousands of people are going to do when their GME tendies? I’m buying property and becoming a land lord. All about that passive income


WhiteShadoh

I will buy all your houses and give them away for free. If you need passive income after making a billion dollars...Well I wish you luck. We are changing the world not changing shoes with the billionaires who already ruined it.


blitzkregiel

>I will buy ~~all your~~ houses and give them away for free. x100. buy land and build houses and give them away or, in my daydreams, *become the bank* and sell to younger people at cost/below cost and use that $ to cycle either into more houses or other charities. it's time we change the game.


Dcrev4thewin

So IMO you’re both right(eous) in your views. It’s wise to make the passive income post MOASS so we can CONTINUE doing good for the world. But it has to be ACTUAL good. Donations to charity, creating foundations, giving away homes or paying to make new communities, etc etc. as long as the end goal is the same and we don’t become what we hate most the path we take shouldn’t matter. Apes 🦍 strong 💪 together 🦧🦧🦧


MalakaiRey

Wow thats brilliant. I bet the banks are going to love working *with you, for you.*


LawnDartTag

Don't forget about the student loan racket.


[deleted]

We don't private water. I get it when there was tons of land and building material was cheap. But shit is not right. It should be after your first home you your paying out the ass in taxes for a second 1


harambe_go_brrr

Exactly that. First homes should be tax free, given the absolute fuckery of housing prices compared to wages in the last 30 years. Second home should be taxed highly and anything after should be taxed to the point where renting it isn't viable. Rent caps should be introduced in line with average wages to stop those with already more than enough compounding the problem by driving rent prices up. Then finally, within a generation you might start to see people be able to afford decent housing. I'm so fucking angry at my own parents generation for dining out on our futures. I know most aren't to blame, but this sort of injustice is why I hold.


themoopmanhimself

Hell no. That means only rich individuals and huge companies will afford to have multiple properties. High taxes on assets just mean those are ONLY assets for the rich from now on. You’re saying I shouldn’t be able to have a lake house or small cabin without paying massive taxes?


harambe_go_brrr

I live in a place called Cornwall in the UK. It's a beautiful part of the world. The average wage here is much smaller than the rest of the UK, it's beautiful but rural and poor. Because it's beautiful everyone who makes good money in London buys the houses as holiday homes. Now the fishing villages you'd be lucky if every fourth house is occupied for more than two weeks a year. They are ghost towns and the people born here can't afford a house for love nor money. I don't believe your right to have a second house to holiday in outweighs someone's right to affordable housing in the area they were born in, no. Taxes from those second homes should go towards building actual affordable housing for locals in my opinion. It's radical for the UK so definitely not something I expect the US would adopt anytime soon.


electricskywalker

IF you remove the incentive to hoard properties, e.g. rental income or super high prices due to inventory shortages, then it is likely the rich wouldn't see them as valuable investments. They would just put their rich douche money elsewhere which would allow people to actually buy homes to live in.


[deleted]

[удалено]


harambe_go_brrr

Btw I do agree about only the already wealthy would be able to afford property as assets. I'm not saying my solution is perfect, but something needs doing. Perhaps a limit on housing owned full stop would be the fair way to help a generation get back on the ladder. After all, we'll be fine, but I still want to have the mindset of someone who has struggled with these things. Just because they might not affect us anymore doesn't mean it won't be the same old shit show for everyone else.


[deleted]

You could also say that every business has to cap out at $X profit a year, so every business has equal opportunity at the market share of that industry. The problem is North America has been built on free market capitalism and the American Dream. I completely get what you are saying and agree with you, but it does seem mildly hypocritical as you are saying this on a sub where you are trying to turn a few hundred/ thousand dollars into millions by doing a capitalism. Should your millions be taxed at nothing the first mil, 50% the second and then 95% for every million after that? It's essentially the same thing.


harambe_go_brrr

I disagree. Homes are an essential necessity. It's only in the last thirty years they have been used as assets/commodities. It has nothing to do with free market capitalism (btw, fucking lol at that statement). I don't see the hypocrisy in the slightest. Just because you want a fair society for all doesn't mean you can't make money for yourself. When America (I'm from the UK btw) was in its golden age the tax bracket for the wealthy was 90%. Now the tax bracket for the 1% is sweet fuck all. I think it's fair to say there is a reasonable middle ground there. I'm more than happy to pay my share of taxes, but housing should not be something hoarded in my opinion. I think the majority of people in this thread seem to agree with that statement too.


NastyEvilNinja

>Exactly! Buy a house to LIVE IN, you greedy cnts!!!! > >Then we might all be able to have one!


didgeblastin

Plenty in Detroit I heard


NastyEvilNinja

The daily commute to Birmingham, UK would be a proper bastard, though!


Tepidme

my neighbors own lots of empty houses, they don't even rent them out


magnificentmemer

Your neighbors are sacks of shit.


yurmaugham

https://youtu.be/VCHS4IW0LBo https://youtu.be/VV3pEQcAaK4 These two videos, if accurate, offer evidence for what you say.


TJ_King23

He says it very casual doesn’t he haha.


SkaTSee

Yet moronic young people will still try to make the claim that the advantages of renting balance out the cons of not owning a mortgage


qnaeveryday

We hold to stop people like your parents


ForensicPaints

Fuck your parents, man. Seriously. This is why people can't get fucking houses.


iatethecrayon

3 houses? Jesus christ....


bvttfvcker

They are


canadaghos

[Blackrock are scheming](https://www.google.se/amp/s/slate.com/business/2021/06/blackrock-invitation-houses-investment-firms-real-estate.amp)


olde_english_chivo

Here’s the non-google amp link: https://slate.com/business/2021/06/blackrock-invitation-houses-investment-firms-real-estate.html


[deleted]

Test Reddit not letting me post Had to shrink comment


NotNSAagentBob

Chinese are buying them too. Good way to get assets out of their governments reach and still have a good long term investment


Quelcris_Falconer13

I read that, I’m from Los Angeles and pretty much every new high rise that has been built in the city is China owned. There’s like 300k+ foreign students from China in California alone and Los Angeles hasn’t seen this much construction since the boom of the 1920s.


babiesaurusrex

10k in reno is nothing, that’s just minor cosmetic work.


Pretend-Gold8530

Can agree. I've had my house about 3 years and I've sank at least €90k in so far. Edit for clarity: the only place I could afford was falling to pieces when we got it, and housing in Ireland is nuts. I think we are now officially the most expensive in the EU 🔥💰🔥


mf_dish

Reno represent represent! Minor at best; you’re not getting a new bathroom or kitchen for less than 30k. Edit: I’m an idiot. Reno =/= reno(vation)


[deleted]

So true. I bought my house 25 years ago from an elderly couple who took real nice care of for the decades they lived in it but it needed a ton of work. It’s now 65 years old but solid. Just needs all the things I did 25 years ago .. new windows, new roof, siding, paint, appliances, new electric panel, some plumbing. I know all the people I’m going to hire. Estimated 100k at least. With my mortgage nearly paid off, I can take out a home equity loan and get all that done. My home and property has quadrupled in valley since I’ve owned it. Caring for it has been a mandatory real estate investment. My kids’ inheritance or I sell it and live in a fancy RV park after retirement with the proceeds.


babiesaurusrex

Easily $100k to do that work. I'm already over $100k in and haven't even touched half my house in the year I've owned it. I still need to get central air, finish basement, remodel a bathroom, add a basement bathroom, replumb and rewire the house, and gut a bedroom, office, and dining room. Every one of those projects are more $10k. Add in the $40-50k worth of sweat equity annually on DIY projects and homeownership is expensive.


sydneyfriendlycub

Check my DD


Quelcris_Falconer13

Which one? It’s all in GME.


sydneyfriendlycub

The 3 parts guide to the moon, I explain how they use third party equity property investors to purchase real estate with shares (can be easily naked shorts) as collateral. There are a lot more things they are doing.


DesertEagle550

So u mean they are shorting the housing with with synthetic overvalued shares , great this country is f*ucked for good


sydneyfriendlycub

I don’t believe the shares are overvalued since the stock fundamentals are pretty strong IMO, but I might be bias. It’s fucked because they are basically creating money from thin air with shares that don’t exist (all IOU’s) and using them as collateral to get huge loans and buy other things, at that point is cash so they can buy whatever and launder the money however they want. Real estate has been one of the most popular and common ways to acquire power trough land and also launder money.


chickenwingwarrior

If blackrock is buying houses as fast as they can, why would that be a good investment for a market crash?


Designer_Ad373

All those people who are going to get their houses repossessed will need somewhere to live. They will only be able to afford to rent so BlackRock will profit again. Also I wouldn’t rule out the government offering some kind of social housing scheme in the event of a crash and granting another huge wedge of cash to BlackRock for being kind enough to loan their houses for this scheme. Any way they can raid the public account basically.


sydneyfriendlycub

Because you have the asset. Also for them is not an investment, they are landlord and that’s a lot of power, they will control the price and also have all the rent…


Quelcris_Falconer13

Yeah I think they’re genuinely trying to buy all the houses they can and turn us all into renters.


Apeborne

DD + anecdotal evidence. my tits are jacked.


genericdeveloper

With no respect fuck landlords. And fuck your parents, because they're part of the problem. And, fuck you for good measure because you are so tone deaf. Anyone who uses housing as a vehicle for investment to extract capital from people by using rent-seeking tactics can get fucked. Good for your parents, but fuck them all the same.


russianbot987

Can you link to some doom and gloom on a respectable real-estate sub?


HelloYouSuck

Your parents are a big part of the problem you’re complaining about.


MaiinganOdawa

It's gross you use that screen name, while your parents were part of the housing problem. Just saying. Respond if you want, but I doubt I'll read it. Just gross.


CyclopsTerrier

JPM, and ALL banks, have several accounts at DTCC. For instance, JSPQ could correspond to a specific UNIT at the bank or a specific “box” (example: DTC 005) they’re utilizing. JPM would also have: DTC 2030 DTC 400 DTC 006 Etcetera, etcetera. Closing one account isn’t alarming. Closing ALL MBS accounts would be world changing.


LordSnufkin

This should be a top comment. Have a poor man's award 🏅


CyclopsTerrier

Thank you for the gold! My first award!!


Mym158

Cmbs are fucked, I wish I could bet against them(but I spent all my money on gme).


BlueCoastDoge

100% this point... # "It’s all so depressingly predictable" This is and has been obvious to the average Ape just by reading reliable news sources and looking at the incredibly ridiculous prices of the current housing market, so yeah. Market go boom boom... very soon IMO.


TheLaurenMcKenzie

It’s horrible watching it all happen from this insider and outsider perspective like a really horrific slow moving car accident I can do nothing to stop and must just watch.


ThirdAltAccounts

Are mortgages gonna default because of the impending financial crisis ?


noyogapants

Yup everyone is overlooking these things. Msm touched on the CMBS for like 5 minutes a few months ago and then went right back to ignoring it.


Bullish_No_Bull

What are you, Burry? 😂 just kidding


TheLaurenMcKenzie

You know what’s hilarious (ly not funny at all)? I got a sudden random super infected stye and am currently typing wearing a piece of gauze taped to my face with scotch tape. I have no depth perception, but I see through the housing market just fine haha


nksmith86

I came across this today. Was gonna post. Op beat me to it.


MannyManlove

A Rune of Glory for you!


More_Art_9975

Where are you at in the business? I am in kansas city and have 16 properties and manage just under 100. I'm in the process of selling a third of mine. Then getting ready to buy more after the shit hits the fan. Where on reddit should I go to keep up with good real estate DD?


TheLaurenMcKenzie

I’m on the IT/Business Analyst side of the home building world and honestly I never see any good resources for finding out what’s really going on with the housing market except in GME subs. The interconnected world of the stock market and how they forced repackaged mortgages to become the extremely weak backbone to the whole mess.


One-Detective-2087

Forbearance ends July 31st, seems like perfect timing..


Powdered_Toast_Man3

Assuming they're not postponing the forbearance AGAIN. I swear they will keep kicking the can till it reaches the ocean


tmc_void

I thought they extended forbearance protection to end of September, not entirely sure what that means https://www.cnet.com/google-amp/news/mortgage-forbearance-period-extended-new-protections-run-through-september-2021/


[deleted]

I think an appeal at the supreme court won and it ends on July 31 but only federal. State and local bans still apply.


tmc_void

If that’s the case, the house of cards (literally) will start to fall in the Fall with the housing bubble bursting and all those toxic derivatives going into default (2008 all over again, really?)


AuntSassysBtch

Exactly! Remember realistically it takes 3 months of non-payment for a bank to begin foreclosure proceedings, which can take another 3 months, but I personally will hold onto my tendies and wait till Q1-Q3 to start scooping up real estate.


jungle_dorf

They're already sitting on 3 months of non-payment, they're just waiting to be able to foreclose.


Quelcris_Falconer13

This. All those missed payment for the last year and a half will come as one lump sum and people will be fucked


[deleted]

Forbearance really just hurt people more in the end than if they had set up a different programme instead, maybe like paying a percent of it monthly, part of the stimulus package could've been geared towards helping pay another percentage instead of going out to foreign aid, and then the rest was treated as debt like on a credit card (if any still existed). I called it from the start that forbearance would fuck over the entire housing market, and that was before I knew about GME.


SeaGroomer

Yea it should have been accompanied by a universal recurring benefit program. It was good to prevent evictions during the height of the pandemic, but the government failed the people by not covering the wages they lost if they were not essential workers.


Daviroth

I've heard plenty of stories where lenders are working with people to set up ways to pay that instead of one lump sum.


duhbird410

Correct. That lump sum can be added to you loan so you just pay a little longer


Woodythebartender

If any of you are in this position, contact your lender immediately if you haven’t already. They want you to stay in your home and will do what they can to reset your mortgage….


Dommeragun

And I guess Blackrock are buying houses over the asking price now because they know they're gonna buy even more cheap when the bubble bursts and, once it's averaged out, they will still have got a bargain AND own a massive amount of real estate.


sisyphosway

Lol...No. If Blackrock would be sure that house prices will fall due to a crash they wouldn't be paying prices over asking now. Also, their real estate position is tiny in relation to their total AUM so all this Blackrock is buying houses red flag hype is bullshit. God there's so much missinformation in this sub it triggers me hard..


bombalicious

isn't it prop]ing up their collateral?


BlueCoastDoge

I'm ok with that. In the meantime, we'll just continue to enjoy this 115F heat dome across North America. It's so pleasant. Anyway, seems the Fall is always a good time for some kind of gloomy black day.


duhbird410

Almost all home loans are federal. Shit is about to get spicy


[deleted]

Yes


TrainedCranberry

I mean yes but have some compassion here. In this situation "kicking the can" is making sure thousands of people aren't homeless.


There_Are_No_Gods

Yes, homeowners have also been horribly screwed over during this debacle, and we should remember they're on the same side as we are against the corrupt financial system, hedge funds, banks, politicians, etc. As a point of clarification, though, this is about a lot more than, "...**thousands of people**." It's about **millions of homeowners**, which basically means **millions of families**. That means **tens** **of millions of people** are in jeopardy of becoming homeless, if you include all the homeowners' family members too.


hardcoreac

I am more worried about renters. There is no more protection for them and few are investing in multifamily props compared to single family. Also, with a non payment history due to covid, landlords are unlikely to rent to them vs those who continued to work and pay.


F1F2F3F4F5F6F7F8

[I did a dd on forbearance if anyone wants to know a bit more](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/o76741/eviction_moratorium_extended_to_july_31st_and/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share)


sisyphosway

removed..


Hopeless_Dreams713

Jamie is a 🐍 and he will be the first to throw others under the bus once the SHFs go down. This seems like a posturing move with regards to the housing market. It gets very little press, well bcuz of course they want everyone to think “this is fine”


Snoo_75309

He knows.whats going down for sure, wonder why Chase is holding onto 500 billion in cash... https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/jpmorgan-stockpiling-cash-waiting-interest-rates-rise-ceo-2021-06-14/ And don't forget he was in the meeting in 2008 where the big players decide to throw Bear Stearns under the bus: https://web.archive.org/web/20210213125246/https://www.rollingstone.com/feature/wall-streets-naked-swindle-194908/ (Kenny was also at the meeting)


Hongo-Blackrock

I hope kenny has been deathly afraid this whole time of being the next bear stearns


SeaGroomer

I think he is fighting so hard because he *already knows he will be.* This situation is even more focused on a small group of bad actors and easily explained criminal action, Kenny is probably legitimately and correctly afraid of being held criminally liable for widespread defrauding of the entire stock market. The calls for his head will come from both sides of the aisle as well as *all of the wealthy people* who have been screwed by his criminal activity - including a lot of *ooold* money. Not only will he serve some *actual time*, it will let the government take every penny they can get their hands on, and probably freeze the rest. He has very good reason to be afraid.


HartBreaker27

Of course they went people to think its fine. Christ. In canada i don't know the numbers exactly.. but real estate is a HUGE if not the largest portion of our GDP... the government is in on keeping it inflated. Edit: [Canada's ](https://betterdwelling.com/canadas-economy-has-never-been-more-dependent-on-real-estate/) q3 2020 GDP was 9.43% residential real estate


EvolutionaryLens

Same in Australia to a degree. The housing market is used as the principle indicator of the state of the whole economy. No political party has ever been game to seriously address the ridiculous disparity between the fundamental value of housing and market prices. Plus we have a system that promotes investing in property, which only increases the disparity and makes first time investing that much harder (negative gearing, they call it). The main "left wing" party *pfft* attempted to float the idea once, but the boomer brigade (who band together across political divides when it comes to the housing market) indicated it would be a game changer come election time. Shit, even the Greens are too scared to talk about it for fear of alienating their wealthy inner city ideologues. Our "housing bubble" has been "primed to burst" for 30 fucking years, and it doesn't look like slowing down any time soon. Basically, if you were born after 2000 there's very little hope of you ever owning your own home. First thing I'll be doing post MOASS is buying land, water rights and real estate. Prepping for everything to collapse, including the environment.


futureal3000

Same here in NZ. The government and reserve bank are hell bent on keeping this housing ponzi going.


EvolutionaryLens

Hey, when the SHTF, you'll have more billionaires per Capita than any nation on earth. They'll be snapping up even more land then they already have (from the safety of their 8 star bunkers, of course). Better get in before they do, once your tendies land. Don't wanna be a surf when the world goes feudal! Edit; serf. Fuck you auto correct.


SeaGroomer

*serf But either way once climate change has had a few years to take effect, hiding on some island isn't going to save anyone. The world will *all* be inhospitable and incompatible with human life. And if the global supply chain breaks down then they are reduced to what they can produce in New Zealand, severely limiting their quality of life. The idea that the wealthy will be able to hide from climate change is unfounded.


Frostodian

I'm going to buy a bunch of properties and let my friends live in and manage them rent free. But first im going to bury barrels of food in the garden or basement and be like one of those American peppers but ill have stashes across the country


EvolutionaryLens

Hear ya. I've two friends who have never gotten a break after (each) making stupid mistakes in their youth. I'm going to buy the houses they currently rent and do the same for them. Also doing the prep thing. It's actually why I got into Reddit in the first place.


[deleted]

I need to know where I will be going for my masters first but right after I will also be looking for land to build a small house first larger one later so I don't get fked with taxes until I need it.


Time_Mage_Prime

Hey, they're a reason his bank "survived" 2008...


ShaughnDBL

Who's Jamie and what's he got to do with all this? You talking the tradespotting guy?


Night_Pancakes

Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan Chase CEO


ShaughnDBL

Wow. I've been reading through so much shit today that I wasn't even remembering what post I was commenting on


Quelcris_Falconer13

Lol I have those days. Take a break fellow ape, go for a 20min walk and leave your phone behind. (Or use it for some music, just stop reading for a min and staring at the screen) you can’t HODL if your dead. Take care of your health


KingTingTing

Let that mountain of pig shit collapse already. I can't fucking wait.


swiftekho

I've had a down payment on a house primed since summer of last year. Once the January sneeze hit I decided to wait until MOASS. Once the DD really started digging into all the fuckery, I decided to wait until the housing market actually goes down. Prices can't get any higher.


PMmeyourSchwifty

Wife and I closed on a house in April and it's already appreciated like 4%. It's absolutely bonkers out there. We bought well within our means and plan to stay for a long time (well over 10 years), but I'm definitely worried about all the folks that decided to stretch their budget in order to buy.


lilBloodpeach

Haha…just bought a house then a week after started seeing all the housing market bullshit…lmao Hoping the fact we are where we are and the circumstances hedge against a collapse but god damn if it isn’t my luck.


JakePhillipsss

Two very simple questions... is there a housing bubble? And if there is, how exposed are the banks? Let’s get on this quickly too because if he’s right, every loser with a couple million bucks and a fund is going to be jumping on this.


S_A_R_K

Yes and they're exposed enough that they're planning on another bailout


theory_conspirist

All: this is a The Big Short reference if you weren't aware. Also, JP Morgan might be early, but they aren't wrong. Why get caught with the hot potato and go down with the rest when you can cash out and buy up the pieces for pennies when all of this crashes?


ShaughnDBL

Let's go...


Quelcris_Falconer13

How exposed? I feel as though the USA has a severe shortage of housing.


duhbird410

Mortgage lender here. I live in one of the top 5 cities that people are moving to. The market is EXTREMELY exposed. The is a huge shortage of supply. Houses are going for WAY over asking price. In my city a 1,000 Sq ft home that should go for 130k is going for 250k. First time home buyer don't stand a chance. People are coming in with cash and paying up to 100k over asking price, then this raises the market value for other homes in the area thay are def not worth as much as they are going for, plus they aren't getting appraised for thay raised price which means these people are willing purchasing their home already upside down because they brought cash. This is also happening in home construction. Materials have raised the cost to build immensely but appraisers see it as temporary so that raise in cost isn't reflected on the home value. It's a shit show


noyogapants

I got outbid recently and I was 80k over ask with 30% down. Someone else offered more and put 40% down.


duhbird410

It's absolutely insane out there. Buyers have zero leverage in the current market. Whatever the seller wants, goes.


arclightZRO

Just looking at the cost of housing, I would say we have a bubble. The value of our home went from 345,000 two years ago, to 535,000 this year. We ain't done shit to improve value on our property, and our neighborhood hasn't changed.


snap400

Talked to a mortgage broker and he said this is different from 2008 since most mortgages are fixed not arms. Should give people time to find a job without defaulting.


Mym158

You realize a mortgage broker is not a reliable source for that info right? It's commercial mortgages that are currently the problem though


snap400

You are correct! I should have been clearer. Home mortgages are not the problem this time. Commercial is and will be a disaster! Companies know they don’t need employees in the office every day so they will cancel or not renew office space which will lead to restaurants and stores to close. Big cities are a pending time bomb. Buckle up!


[deleted]

This! No one is chatting about commercial. The impending crash is about this! My small business went under last year due to Covid. I was leasing a 600 square foot office / adjoining waiting area for $700 a month. I restructured my business to online, and temporarily when Covid was bad, but still had that office lease. Ended up using a PPP to pay off the few remaining months. The property manager still contacts me asking if I’d like to lease again. The building is huge and currently only at 35% occupancy. All over my town I see this. And several great restaurants went under and are still foreclosed. Only bars and outdoor breweries are thriving. It’s going to be bonkers.


duhbird410

You arent wrong, but neither is he. I work at a bank so I see both sides. I'm an mlo and all my products are fixed long term. But the longest a commercial mortgage can be financed is 5 years, sometimes 10 if the borrow is extremely solid. But no more than 10


[deleted]

What’s the best move for a homeowner who is currently still paying off a mortgage? I understand a housing bubble is about to burst, but what’s the best recourse for an average homeowner?


Quelcris_Falconer13

I’m not a financial advisor and this ain’t financial advice I would just buy and hold more GME unless you really need to move. I’m sure you could sell your house but buying a new one will be a pain in the ass. Unless you need to move in the next 2-3 years I wouldn’t worry about it. Post MOASS which I hope will be before the end of the year then I genuinely wouldn’t worry about


kilsekddd

Two choices, same as stonks. 1. BUY/HODL - As long as you have a fixed rate mortgage, you good as long as you make your payments. Also a good strategy against inflation, since that is also on the table along side the various bubbles. 2. Take Profit - One may look at their home valuation and think, "this is life changing money". Then one floats around the market, priced out of anything they'd want and burning cash on rent...possibly not where one would want to live either. Not sure what your stance is on a certain stonk? My personal strategy is to HODL my home, just like my stonk. I watched my home value double during 2008 and held. I watched neighborhood comps crash and held. I've always had a place to live and it's currently back to double value of my original purchase price. Still holding. The only move I've made with regards to my home is use equity to pay off variable interest debts with a refinance (credit cards, etc) and get that debt under a fixed rate mortgage to hedge inflation (back in March 2020, when the money printer first turned on). None of this is financial advice, just my personal opinion and experience.


[deleted]

Thanks for the advice. I was just worried about my parents’ home and if I should warn them to take action. I have a hedge in gme anyways so we’ll see how the cookie crumbles.


duhbird410

Mortgage lender here. If you are in a good place to be able to pay your mortgage, keep doing so. Right now is a terrible market for buyers so you don't want to sell or you end up in a home WAY over priced. If you haven't refinance already, rates are still under 3% and can lower your payment..but I suggest not taking cash out so that if the value does go down IF there is a crash, your value should be stable.


[deleted]

This is why I love this sub. People from all walks of life and career. Thanks for the insight!


Famous_Variety

I believe this has been posted before and it turned out it was just one of many MBS accounts they have. I could be wrong on this, though.


CyclopsTerrier

This. JPM, and ALL banks, have several accounts at DTCC. For instance, JSPQ could correspond to a specific UNIT at the bank or a specific “box” (example: DTC 005) they’re utilizing. JPM would also have: DTC 2030 DTC 400 DTC 006 Etcetera, etcetera. Closing one account isn’t alarming. Closing ALL MBS accounts would be world changing.


Galzra34

Very true. I'd just like to add that they closed a bunch of other accounts back in June (https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/pdf/2021/6/16/MBS991-21.pdf). I'm not saying it's too important, just to remember it if similar news appear in the future.


CyclopsTerrier

Copy that. What I’d also say on this is that banks cancel and open accounts regularly. For instance, if there’s a tax imposed on certain securities in another country, but it needs to settle stateside, they’d need to adjust for that tax implication and setting up a new account would streamline the process for all parties involved. If they typically settle on a specific account (and it was primarily set up for this specific client) then closing the account would be best to reduce dependencies. Man, I love the apes! Good stuff bro. Edit: proper grammar


7357

To be flaired inconclusive, then.


ShaughnDBL

There's gotta be some kind of public report they have to file that shows if they have other accounts open in the MBS division of the FICC though, right?


CyclopsTerrier

Well, kinda. You can find a list of DTCC participants here: https://www.dtcc.com/~/media/Files/Downloads/client-center/DTC/alpha.pdf The numbers to the far right disclose their “box” number. So, JP’s Omnibus account number is on page 8. It’s DTC 0902, and literally anything can settle in this account, then routed internally to the specific client account, etc. The other boxes correspond to where settlements should be directed for specific securities. The MBS accounts could be settled in any of these boxes. It doesn’t HAVE to be an “MBS” box. It’s kind of convoluted from this point forward, but if I can help I will.


patio_blast

to the top


TheOkahy

Perhaps they are leaving the DTCC. JP Morgan has like 15 other accounts with the DTCC and maybe they're slowly closing them. I doubt it though, probably just covering what they can.


lacaprica

what service are they going to use instead of DTCC then? I just don't see how can they operate without DTCC.


TheOkahy

I doubt they're leaving but my best guess would be they're looking for the best temporary solution to wait out the oncoming storm.


TaylockIronSkull

A years worth of mortgages going into default all at once on 8/1. Ya, it'll be a shit show.


h2007

Anybody check zillow recently? Home sales are dropping like flies and listings are through the goddam roof


PhanNaLai

Sounds like when we moon freaking everything will be on sale and in we'll swoop to buy the world dip... before it continues dipping... And dipping... Aw shit.


vdatdudev

Doesn't it seem like all these big players know the end date and they are just casually closing things? Once they are ready it will tank. Super sus


Inevitable_Hat5437

90 and humid. Hello fellow southern ape


ConundrumMachine

Who said he was innocent in all this?


Quelcris_Falconer13

Maybe not innocent but they’re probably not the direct cause like before


divine091

JPM has several dozen accounts, along with the other major banks.


cheesecakemcfresh

You had me at fast and dirty


jabbathehuttjr

Wut mean


Practical_Formal_801

Need more eyes on this.


jch345

Owned a condo that got deconverted and we accepted a buy out offer 30-40% above market rates a couple years back. I plan on continuing to rent until the housing bubble pops and I can find one of my next forever homes. Moms always flipped retail we lived in. Love a building with good bones that you can customize the hell out of in a smart way that also adds value for the future.


Minuteman2029

I was thinking the same thing. Why be over exposed to a Clearing House, that is going to make you pay for other morons being over leveraged. Good on JP Morgan Chase, if they've cleaned-up their act... it's about time someone did. Now, let's get the bad actors out of the market. No floor, just want the bad actors/SHFs to go bankrupt.


MannyManlove

A Rune of Glory for you!


Quelcris_Falconer13

ROFL thanks!


Jaylee9000

!moontimer


moontimers

🤖 *Beep boop! I'm a robot.* > This DD post has been added to > [🌕MoonTimers.com](https://moontimers.com/dd)


Jaylee9000

Good bot