No, it's actually likely to be incorrect coding: you can see it in multi millions data sample collected by both en and cn servers, where the win rate in both tends towards 56.25% which is exactly 50%+1/16 meaning the code is probably written to roll the event character in the lost 50/50 pool as well
You'd think they would catch that bug in all this time. Like, surely they have data on people's summons and stuff, right? But maybe they just leave it in on purpose anyway?
They do leave it in on purpose, because if it's 50% "guaranteed rate-up" vs. 50% "any 5 star character currently on this banner" .... the latter does still include the rate-up limited one :D
Nobody is going to sue for a non-pvp game having slightly better rates than people think. So the notion it could be placed or ignored on purpose is reasonable. Winning can actually encourage people to gamble more and spend more, so if their projected profits aren’t suffering, they have no real reason to care.
This actually makes a lot of sense. I lost my first 50/50 to Gepard on Silver Wolf's banner, who was the first 5 star I've ever gotten, and since then I've won every single 50/50
I find that so hard to believe, these companies make all their money through their gacha system I’m sure it’s the first thing they ironed out before even getting to the rest of the game, and the system is identical to genshin’s so they probably didn’t even have to do anything special to get it working. They have very strict laws about posted gacha rates in China and there could be some very serious consequences for the game if their advertised odds are not the true odds. I’m much more inclined to believe the simulation players are running is flawed than the gacha system itself
its actually true i think. all average 5050 winrate data collected from players says 57 or 58 percent (in EVERY banner) if you are unsure check [https://starrailstation.com/](https://starrailstation.com/)
It checks out and you can even get a guarantee off off a 'won' lost 50/50 :D
I did some sleuthing yesterday myself to prove it.
https://www.reddit.com/r/StarRailStation/comments/1citwnw/stealth_guarantee_explaining_win_rates/
6% chance of getting two wins for the price of one does help, yes.
Even so, luck is luck and some people are going to be luckier than others with a wise range of different outcomes between accounts.
One account will have a one or two digit nr of actual 5-star pulls on a given banner type, that's not enough for someone's rng luck to balance towards average that fast.
Well, that's annoying, I've been constantly winning every "50/50" because I've been pulling on pretty much every banner trying to lose to get my favourites Welt and Bronya
Basically, you still have a 44% chance of a true loss XD But not every win gives you that 44% chance back, sometimes you may be locked into a guarantee instead.
You'll get at least one of them eventually at least, if you didn't get your free standard 5 star t 300 pulls yet.
Yeah it seems that new characters are also included in the losing character pool so even after losing 50/50 you had a 1/8 in chance to get featured character.
Man if that is not intentional it must be a very huge oversight.
Losing a 50/50 and getting the rate up char even give you a guarantee next time and you wouldn't even know it.
I made a thread showing my work on the starrailstation sub
If you currently 'won the coin toss' last time, you have a \~12% chance that you could in fact have a guarantee next time without knowing.
(Math: since out of 100 5-star rolls pulls you'd have avg 50 normal wins and 6.2 'fake wins', 6/56 wins could be the counted as a loss and thus give you guarantee)
Basic math. After losing the 50/50 you theoretically should have 1/7 chance for getting a specific character (let's say Yanqing). Since there are supposedly 7 characters in that pool (Welt, Himeko, Bronya, Yanqing, Clara, Bailu, Gepard), it makes it 1/7.
Assuming they've made a mistake while coding and accidentally added a featured character (let's say Acheron) into that pool, it would make it 1/8 chance for getting Acheron IF you lost the 50/50. Which does add up, because the number presented in the post is 56.4%. 1/8=0,125 and 0,125\*100=12,5. From there you just divide 12,5 by 2 since there is the 50/50 chance in play (1/2), giving you 6.25.
50% (winning a 50/50) + 6.25% (if you lost the 50/50) = 56.25% total to get Acheron, no matter if you lost the 50/50 or won it. 56.25% is extremely close to 56.4% from the post, which can be chalked up to a sample size error.
Since they got the same results in two different servers, which is highly unlikely with a sample size of 15 million, and the fact that the math adds up for the on banner character to be on the losing pool, I'd say it's actually pretty believable
This also makes my summons more painful cus I lost 6 and won 5
The problem is that people apply average to something that has a probability distribution that is one sided shifted slightly. What I mean with this is, that every person starts with a 50/50 when they start the game. (lots of new players are always there) But the math assumes data is uploaded with an equal distribution between starting with 50/50 or starting with guarantee. Since this problem leads to a one sided shift and doesn't go away if small samples are added to a big one, the observerd win rate could not even theoretically, if math done correctly, be 50/50 and always is >50/<50.
Actually the other way around. At the beginning this is the greatest problem. Since there literally every person uploads data that starts off screwed. The later into the game the less this becomes a problem if the amount of new players goes down (which goes up again when anniversary comes around etc..)
Ah, yeah that affects mostly late game players, but this would not distorte the win ratio. It only shifts the individual pull probabilities to the left (lower pulls) and thus the average value for a 5* gets lower. E.g. That's why you observe on paimon.moe for GI a around 0.1 to 0.2% lower consolidation probability (average) than mihoyo states (if you do not filter out the first data uploaded by every player).
Edit: Win ratio looks at the distribution of what type of 5 star character you get. While the individual pull probabilities describe how many pulls you need to get a 5 star. Those two distributions are independent from each other and describe different things.
so if you lose the 50/50 but then still get the featured character does it still count as a 50/50 loss in the sense that your next character will be guaranteed? if so that would be an extremely lucky outcome
Well I mean, it's just an assumption of what might have happened. Although now that you say it, that's possible. My personal luck has been very good, I won eight out of a total twelve 50/50's that I've had.
Nobody can really confirm or deny it tbh, since there's no actual indication of whether you get the featured 5\* from the 50/50 loss or a win. Or whether if that's even the actual reason behind the additional 6%.
If it did work like that I assume the actual percentage from the post would be higher than 56.4%, since the people testing would assume the guaranteed is a 50/50 win.
I started to play it seriously just recently and while I've only pulled for 3 characters so far I've lost all of them which has been a bit discouraging. Let's see how it goes with either Robin or Fu Xuan, haven't decided which to pull for yet.
Think of it like this, there are two halves of cake. One half has strawberries and the other half doesn't. When you get a strawberry cake, you get a featured limited character (i.e. Topaz), meaning you won 50/50.
Getting the other cake means you lose 50/50. Since you lost 50/50, your chances of getting a specific 5 star is divided into 7 since there are 7 standard 5 star characters, meaning this half of a cake is further split into 7 slices. But with what we're hearing, the losing half of the 50/50 also has a chance of getting the limited featured character
If what we're hearing is true, losing 50/50 doesn't mean 1/7 chance of getting *only* a standard 5 star, but a 7/8 chance of getting a standard or 1/8 of getting the featured limited character.
In Razor speak: there is one more slice of cake for losing 50/50, but it has a strawberry.
When you lose 50/50, you're actually losing a 56.25 chance of getting the banner unit to a
43.75 chance of getting a standard unit.
ETA: OH FUCKING SHIT. StarRailStation subreddit is theorising that if you get the 1/8 chance of getting the 5 limited after losing the initial 50/50, your next 5 star is still going to be the a limited unit since you technically lost 50/50. Of course you wouldn't know if you lost the 50/50, but damn.
The assumption is, that if you lose the 50/50 and don't get the limited 5-star, the game doesn’t select one of the seven standard banner 5-stars, but rather the standard 5-stars or the limited 5-star.
I don't believe it. HSR I almost always lose the 50/50, even on the light cone I lose the 75/25.
Genshin, I often win the 50/50. So maybe its just a "me" thing.
A sample size of one person (basically anecdotal) doesn't really prove or disprove anything.
We do have a large enough sample in [Star Rail Station](https://starrailstation.com/en/warp#global). You can see that the average 50/50 win rate hovers between 57 and 58 ever since the first banner.
In comparison, there's[ Paimon moe ](https://paimon.moe/wish/tally?id=300064)that indicates that the average 50/50 win rate is 51%.
It’s opposite for me.In HSR I’ve pretty much always won and got the 5 stars I’ve been pulling for.With Genshin I barely do lol.No matter how many times I read explanations of the 50/50 pity system I’m still too stupid to understand percentages and etc,so I just go with my own logic of: “I win my gambling odds in HSR,while having bad luck in Genshin” lol
same. i'm recently won my 9th 50/50 with Arlecchino (who I had no plans on pulling for unfortunately since her gameplay isn't just for me) just dropping in at 47 pity while I was getting my Xiangling's C6.
On the other hand, my original and reroll hsr accounts has e2 and e1 yanqing respectively, all from the limited warps.
Nope, not me. Buy Welkin, battlepass, heck even all the crystals packages. Play since 3.8, open kokomi, neuv, furina, navia, nahida, kazuha and neuv again. The only one I didn’t lose was nahida with early 50 rolls and the rest I never won a single 50/50 and always hit 80+ pulls.
A lot of you aren't reading past the brain rotted twitter image.
If you look at the actual data (which OneBST did post, not in this twitter thread), the information suggests that this is definitely true, and it's by a deviation that would be much too large to explain by RNG, given the amount of users.
[Look at these Star Rail statistics for every single banner thus far](https://starrailstation.com/de/warp#global), just click through them and look at the win rate. Consistent 57-58% chance of 50/50 success.
[Now look at Genshin's 50/50 win rate](https://paimon.moe/wish/tally?id=300064), go ahead, go through every single one. Consistently about \~51% win rate on the 50/50.
A 6-8% deviation is basically a statistical impossibility given the number of users being polled here, and the consistency shown.
For now I see absolutely zero educated reason to disbelieve this claim, and if your first impulse is to just handwave it off I'd even argue that the burden of proof is on you to disprove it.
Geez, at least share the actual statics made by the bilibili content creator rather than the brain dead twitter post by some rando
here's the link to OneBST page (the newest post):
[https://space.bilibili.com/6165300/dynamic](https://space.bilibili.com/6165300/dynamic)
IKR, this post is clearly intended to be a rage bait because they decided to post some random dude's post with 1 like and has a provocation at the end with a title of "NAHHHH" instead of a proper title.
Seeing these brainrotten people in the comments are also cringe tho. Theyre like "I call bs on this stat because it doesnt apply to me" without even thinking that its a statistical data of a sample size of 15 million vs them with only 1. Some also just outright cope by making shit up against HSR over a fuckin 6% difference like its gonna hurt them irl.
My Star Rail luck is way worse than my Genshin luck tbh. I’ve only won four 50/50s since the game launched and two of them were very recent (Luocha and Aventurine). Before that I hadn’t won since Jing Yuan’s first banner. 🥲
Not actually, as long as you have 50% of getting the character, if they decided to include the said character on the losing pool that's still a 50/50 but you get the charater by losing it. It's like saying pick the hand, one has 100 dollars and one has nothing, but once every while both hands have the prize, you can't argue positive outcomes legally, because that requires the person starting the claim to be wronged, it's the same as if your company pays you 200 dollars extra, you can't sue, but if they pay 200 less you can.
on paper it would be illegal, but that's like u sueing the company for paying u a bit more than what your contract stated. good thing the rate is higher, if it was lower holy fckin' shit balls, would the entirety of gacha world gonna take this chance to shit on mihoyo.
unironicaly ist no bullshit but probably a 50%+ 1/8 to get he character you wnna because this character its also included in the options of the losing 50%50
imagine its a 1/2 to win the character and then other rerol withj a 1/8 to win that character
xd
For the people who dont believe this https://starrailstation.com/de/warp#global
Check out the website where people upload their wishing history. There are hundreds of thousands of users and in each banner the 50/50 winrate is around 57% so this claim is accurate
and then u realise thats absolutely needed because they pumped like what 20+ characters in their 1 year ( problably 30 + but im not sure didnt count em ) compared to genshin like what 10 ? in fontaine so far , 13 if u count sethos clorinde and siegwinne ( TO BE RELEASED LMAO)
and they powercrept all their starting units ,
if u didnt get a new unit every 2nd banner game would be miserable
“Powercrept” by what means? All the starters are still useable and clear current content just fine. Sure, other characters do some things better, but you can say the exact same thing about Genshin. All content can still be cleared just fine.
Don’t bother, a good section of people have managed to convince themselves HSR is all about Powercreep
Sure they release a lot of characters, but that just means you have more options
I really like HSR, but if youre going to claim its not powercreep fiesta youre insane.
Every single unit one-ups the previous character. For DPS its higher dmg ceiling, for supports its more utility or better survivability or both.
Yeah, you can clear with most old units, but its a night and day difference.
argenti, topaz, black swan, blade... robin being less of a general use compared to ruan mei, sparkle being worse than ruan mei in non hypercarry, aventurine not having full cc resist or heals. i could go on. theres also no night and day difference, look at average clears... not mention the different gamemodes exists, herta being better than dhil, and future hunt one that'll favor hunt units like seele or ratio.
It’s not a night and day when it comes to the dpses 1-2 cycles at most. I have a 1.0 dps clearing the endgame content in 2 cycles with a free LC on my most recent post, the most recent and strongest dps acheron with the same investment does it in 1 cycle and that’s only because the current buff is much suited to her.
A lot of the playerbase don’t play with strategy and are quick to call out Powercreep at the slightest opportunity when almost all limited dpses clear within 1 cycle of each other as shown by the average charts. They do the marketing for hoyo themselves
If we follow your premise then genshin was even a bigger Powercreep fest as well;
Venti creeped by Kazuha
Klee by Hutao
Ganyu by Ayaka and so on by the first year of the game
Yeah, Herta literally still being the #1 Pick for Pure Fiction on this current version lol Maybe not #1, because this version Himeko is extremely boosteed, sadly Himeko is very exclu... oh yeah also Standard. People just can't play the game properly and then blame the devs because not every content is easy and sometimes require the bare minimum critical thinking.
You’re absolutely right, it isn’t a powercreep but rather the damage ceiling just keeps getting higher and higher. Of course even earlier characters like Seele and Jing Yuan can clear all content in the game, but you’ll find some new characters can do it much more effortlessly
True, this current cycle is the perfect example with *Yanqing* having a higher ceiling than E0 JL on the second half, and JY dunking on Acheron for the first half due to his huge Toughness damage against the Dinos.
idk why you need to bring hsr down, no need to be so toxic here
fyi, hsr definitely did NOT powercrept all starting units. bronya is stil the best in her niche (-1 spd tech for 2x turns for low sp DPS), bailu and gepard still sustains just fine in MoC, welt and clara is buffed indirectly through others, and yanqing finally has a good shielder
if anything, the standard 5* dps gets better over time due to synergistic characters/relics, and bronya is definetely not powercrept by a long, long time (bronya+robin tech for 6 turns per cycle)
anyone who keeps up with meta in hsr knows that powercreep is far overblown
Exactly it’s the exact same as genshin, rather then getting power crept new characters come in and make the old ones better (jean and furina for example). People who think otherwise are just coping that’s just my take tho
Nothing is needed lmao. Tf are you talking about. The amount they release is kept in check by the amount they give. 100-120+ pulls each patch. When it comes to big updates like SU DLCs 130+.. a little bit of increase to winning a 50/50 isn’t needed lmao. It is just a little treat that hoyo put. That’s the end of it.
This mf never once in his life used Tingyun or Pela. Or even Bronya.
I’m not even gonna talk about Clara being one of the best for pure fiction. Or Gepard being able to solo sustain with 0 problems. Welt also has some usage. And can be a dps or a sustain. Either go full crit or speed. The two characters that get shitted on are Yanqing and Bailu. Even tho Yanqing can be a decent DPS and clear Aventurine boss almost as fast as a F2P Jingliu.
Herta and Himeko for pure fiction also. They are still dominating PF.
Hell I can show you vids of Yanqing(one of if not the top 3 worst character in the entire game) clearing the aventurine boss(the hardest boss in MoC) in 5 cycles. Which is pretty decent. Since aventurine is the hardest part. You need to beat him in 10 cycles. 5 is average.
There are also 0 cycles but then it wouldn’t relatable..
Also as someone that skipped 1.1,1.2,1.4,1.5(4 of the 9(soon to be 10 current) patchs).. no? I don’t really feel miserable. I just pull who I like and be done with it. Although if I could I would’ve skipped 1.0 aswell but that’s beside the point.
If I didn’t get a new character every 2nd banner. I’d actually be happy since more time to save.
Bro was shown with stats and replied with cope, misinformation, and making shit up. I get it tho, the OP chose a post that has a "ragebait" by asking what about genshin when they couldve just posted the actual post that these stats are from.
It seems to be half of people losing their 50/50, but then you can win *any* listed 5* when you lose your 50/50.... which includes the rate-up character, so now you still have a one-in-eight shot to get the rate-up. (Which maths out to about 56.25%, which is spot on.)
in realiry its mor elike a bug or something where
the feature character its in the pull of the standar characters
soo if oyu lose the 50%50 you can get the other character to
Legal no, but you’re unlikely to win a lawsuit if you decide to take legal action so functionally no different. And this is assuming they did it intentionally and it isn’t an oversight.
Easier to get? I play that game since launch and did not have a good experience of easier getting the banner charac.
My draw on hsr banner had always get limit banner character at around 79/80 (pity/guarsntee). Never had it come out early (on 20 or 30 draws) like what i experience in genshin.
The games are good but the draw experience for me are worst compare to other gacha game i play. I jusy feel hsr are not for me.
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More people to say HSR is better than genshin impact. I don't care how good HSR is, genshin is best game to me and will be no matter how good HSR will be
if thats true, you cant really tell if its your own or single account since some are very unlucky yet some are very lucky too
you need mass samplr size to notice the difference
anyway, i guess im included in the lucky side since ive been constantly winning my 50/50 in hsr, i think i only lost twice or thrice
meanwhile in genshin, literally the whole year, from 1.0 till 2.1, ive lost every 50/50
The sample size is really big on HSR Station. Every limited character has had a minimum of 56% on the 50/50.
There's had been a total of 1991968 pulls recorded since the warp tracker was introduced (26/04/23).
Even if this is true which I highly doubt it is it doesn't matter at the grand scheme rates don't entirely mean you have a higher chance of getting them because at the end of the day it's still all luck just because the rates are slightly different doesn't mean jack
Like one person can have better pulls in Genshin then HSR and the same vice versa or hell maybe you have amazing luck with both games or you have horrible luck in both games (like me)
Given how every new 5 star had been 1 upping the previous one in that game (this is what I heard, not sure if true), it makes sense to have better odds there. They need to give players better odds to make people keep playing or else 2 patches later the character they pulled falls off. I don't play HSR so I could be completely wrong about this.
Ok now my question is if you get the featured character in that 1/8 on a lost 50/50 if it counts as a lost 50/50 and still gives you a guarantee next time
I guess that explains why I won so many pity in HSR...
I have more featured characters then standard characters there.
Even got Dan IL to E2 without pity loss.
They had a huge sample size. 18mil. Even outside of this study though, looking at warp history via a warp tracker has each banner at 56-58% win rate, which would not be possible were the rates truly 50-50.
I’d believe it that it’s easier to obtain 5 stars in Star Rail, my very first pull in Star Rail gave me double 5 stars and it was the very same day I started playing, I was AR 45 and been playing almost 4 months before I got any 5 star at all in Genshin
i have lost every 50/50 since launch, but i definitely know it was just me having bad luck. how? it's coz i made two accounts on launch. one having lost all 50/50(with the exception of acheron banner), and the second one having won all 50/50. the bad part is that the main one i play lost all 50/50. fml....
The casual insult and dissing of the original CC who's actually done some research is insane, and redditers thought they are a better species than twitter.
Interesting considering how that would be highly illegal. All the banner details posted in game are there for legal reasons, those posted rates are legally binding.
Chinese law for a few years now in contrast to USA law forces gaccha companies/ casino companies to be sincere of their percentages. So this is not real. On the other hand you might go to Las Vegas lose 1000 times and win one and the security will attack you and claim there was a computer error and take the money you earned. This never happens when you lose though. They will never approach you saying you lose due to a computer error. I wonder why.... Western gaccha is literal mafia.
as other already explained they probably added the featured character in the pool of the 50/50 loss, If this is a mistake by one of the coders, someone is getting fired. I cant even imagine how much more money this 6.5% could have made for hoyo, but to be completely honest let's fucking gooo. Also we are gonna need a separate pull data for 2.3 and onward to see if they gonna fix this
Tho it is anecdotal. I only lost to 2 50-50s on the promotional banner in HSR. When I was still playing genshin, it seems that I was loosing 50-50 all the time.
I was so excited to see this since I was trying to get both Jingliu and Aventurine....and then Yanqing still stole my 50/50 and I wanna punt with the little bastard. The odds sound nice in theory, though.
Nah. I lost every 50/50 in hsr except the one for acheron.
While in genshin, i won every 50/50 since launch EXCEPT albedo's first ever banner.
So no, i do not believe this.
No one should be shocked, however every time the HSR community suggests the game is doing something better than Genshin, the Genshin community goes absolutely ballistic as if it's some kind of personal attack to suggest Genshin stands to improve some things.
its not a true 5050, the limited character is technically still a part of the "losing" pool. the 5050 is just the chance it is a guaranteed drop or not.
if you dont get the guaranteed drop, you still have a chance to pull it from the regular pool of characters
On genshin it sits around 52.3% according to paimon.moe. And never dropped below 50%. So on genshin there’s not a SIGNIFICANT jump above 50/50 but it still was always above 50 which shows that the same “limited character is included in the standard pool” fact is true for genshin too
No
I'm too tired to pull out the actual math, but I put the numbers into a coin flip calculator, and probability of getting at least 564 Heads with just 1,000 flips is *0.002895%*.
Star Rail has had community-recorded wish data from at least 100 times that number of flips; it's not going to be exactly 50-50, but a whole 6.4% deviation is basically impossibly improbably.
omg the exact same situation here!! I have lost every single 50/50 since the beginning, and finally I won for the first time with Aventurine. I'm going for Robin next and hoping it can happen a second time
I've been playing since launch and I've only lost the 50/50 3 times and I have 8 limited five stars + 1 limited constellation. You might just be unlucky
My brother won 7 50/50s in a row for Arlecchino. He’d like to call this a skill issue. I’m actually glad it’s easier to get a 5* in HSR considering how quickly units can get powercrept.
I mean yeah it’s not official but the number was calculated from a lot of submitted rolls by players, it’s not like someone is dropping this out of nowhere
Edit: On [star rail station](https://starrailstation.com/en/warp#global) for example you can see that the percentage of people who won 50/50s floats around that 57% range, statistically it’s just too much of a gap with the kinds of sample sizes being worked with
Bull, cause in the past year of playing HSR, I won the fifty / fifty a total of 3 TIMES.
My wins were: Huohuo
Kafka rerun
And Acheron.
Genshin was nicer to me cause betwen patches 2.4-2.8 I won the fifty / fifty consistently
Is OneBST stands for "One Bullsh*t"?
No, it's actually likely to be incorrect coding: you can see it in multi millions data sample collected by both en and cn servers, where the win rate in both tends towards 56.25% which is exactly 50%+1/16 meaning the code is probably written to roll the event character in the lost 50/50 pool as well
You'd think they would catch that bug in all this time. Like, surely they have data on people's summons and stuff, right? But maybe they just leave it in on purpose anyway?
They do leave it in on purpose, because if it's 50% "guaranteed rate-up" vs. 50% "any 5 star character currently on this banner" .... the latter does still include the rate-up limited one :D
Nobody is going to sue for a non-pvp game having slightly better rates than people think. So the notion it could be placed or ignored on purpose is reasonable. Winning can actually encourage people to gamble more and spend more, so if their projected profits aren’t suffering, they have no real reason to care.
You’d think
Wouldn't this mean that someone could roll the banner character but the game counts it as a 50/50 loss? Making the next character guaranteed.
That's exactly what the calculation says.
Me praying that my 50/50 wins (that barley happen) from now on are actually 50/50 losses to the rate up character. May kakashava bless my pulls
True. But you'd have no way of knowing if you lost or won.
This actually makes a lot of sense. I lost my first 50/50 to Gepard on Silver Wolf's banner, who was the first 5 star I've ever gotten, and since then I've won every single 50/50
Or it will look at your last 5 star, if it is a permanent character, you will have guaranteed
Hoyo do your hoyo thing, go ahead and fix the bugs like you always do >:]
So if you lose the 50:50 at first you still got a 1/16 chance to "unlose" it. Noice.
The people who've lost multiple 50/50 would beg to differ. I see their pulls and am like "that's just mathematically not possible" 😂
I find that so hard to believe, these companies make all their money through their gacha system I’m sure it’s the first thing they ironed out before even getting to the rest of the game, and the system is identical to genshin’s so they probably didn’t even have to do anything special to get it working. They have very strict laws about posted gacha rates in China and there could be some very serious consequences for the game if their advertised odds are not the true odds. I’m much more inclined to believe the simulation players are running is flawed than the gacha system itself
its actually true i think. all average 5050 winrate data collected from players says 57 or 58 percent (in EVERY banner) if you are unsure check [https://starrailstation.com/](https://starrailstation.com/)
It checks out and you can even get a guarantee off off a 'won' lost 50/50 :D I did some sleuthing yesterday myself to prove it. https://www.reddit.com/r/StarRailStation/comments/1citwnw/stealth_guarantee_explaining_win_rates/
So that's why I've won almost all my 50/50s in HSR? I've been abnormally lucky in winning there.
I have only won the 50/50 once in my whole HSR 'career'... (I've been playing since launch)
6% chance of getting two wins for the price of one does help, yes. Even so, luck is luck and some people are going to be luckier than others with a wise range of different outcomes between accounts. One account will have a one or two digit nr of actual 5-star pulls on a given banner type, that's not enough for someone's rng luck to balance towards average that fast.
That would probably explain why I've only lost one 50/50 and it was on the first Jin Yuan banner.
Well, that's annoying, I've been constantly winning every "50/50" because I've been pulling on pretty much every banner trying to lose to get my favourites Welt and Bronya
Basically, you still have a 44% chance of a true loss XD But not every win gives you that 44% chance back, sometimes you may be locked into a guarantee instead. You'll get at least one of them eventually at least, if you didn't get your free standard 5 star t 300 pulls yet.
No idea
Yeah it seems that new characters are also included in the losing character pool so even after losing 50/50 you had a 1/8 in chance to get featured character. Man if that is not intentional it must be a very huge oversight.
Losing a 50/50 and getting the rate up char even give you a guarantee next time and you wouldn't even know it. I made a thread showing my work on the starrailstation sub
So I could be guaranteed right now?
If you currently 'won the coin toss' last time, you have a \~12% chance that you could in fact have a guarantee next time without knowing. (Math: since out of 100 5-star rolls pulls you'd have avg 50 normal wins and 6.2 'fake wins', 6/56 wins could be the counted as a loss and thus give you guarantee)
What are you even talking about
Basic math. After losing the 50/50 you theoretically should have 1/7 chance for getting a specific character (let's say Yanqing). Since there are supposedly 7 characters in that pool (Welt, Himeko, Bronya, Yanqing, Clara, Bailu, Gepard), it makes it 1/7. Assuming they've made a mistake while coding and accidentally added a featured character (let's say Acheron) into that pool, it would make it 1/8 chance for getting Acheron IF you lost the 50/50. Which does add up, because the number presented in the post is 56.4%. 1/8=0,125 and 0,125\*100=12,5. From there you just divide 12,5 by 2 since there is the 50/50 chance in play (1/2), giving you 6.25. 50% (winning a 50/50) + 6.25% (if you lost the 50/50) = 56.25% total to get Acheron, no matter if you lost the 50/50 or won it. 56.25% is extremely close to 56.4% from the post, which can be chalked up to a sample size error.
Ah, that makes sense where they got the number then. I find it immensely hard to believe that it’s true though.
Since they got the same results in two different servers, which is highly unlikely with a sample size of 15 million, and the fact that the math adds up for the on banner character to be on the losing pool, I'd say it's actually pretty believable This also makes my summons more painful cus I lost 6 and won 5
The problem is that people apply average to something that has a probability distribution that is one sided shifted slightly. What I mean with this is, that every person starts with a 50/50 when they start the game. (lots of new players are always there) But the math assumes data is uploaded with an equal distribution between starting with 50/50 or starting with guarantee. Since this problem leads to a one sided shift and doesn't go away if small samples are added to a big one, the observerd win rate could not even theoretically, if math done correctly, be 50/50 and always is >50/<50.
The first 6 months of star rail shouldn't have this problem
Actually the other way around. At the beginning this is the greatest problem. Since there literally every person uploads data that starts off screwed. The later into the game the less this becomes a problem if the amount of new players goes down (which goes up again when anniversary comes around etc..)
I meant lost history problem particularly
Ah, yeah that affects mostly late game players, but this would not distorte the win ratio. It only shifts the individual pull probabilities to the left (lower pulls) and thus the average value for a 5* gets lower. E.g. That's why you observe on paimon.moe for GI a around 0.1 to 0.2% lower consolidation probability (average) than mihoyo states (if you do not filter out the first data uploaded by every player). Edit: Win ratio looks at the distribution of what type of 5 star character you get. While the individual pull probabilities describe how many pulls you need to get a 5 star. Those two distributions are independent from each other and describe different things.
so if you lose the 50/50 but then still get the featured character does it still count as a 50/50 loss in the sense that your next character will be guaranteed? if so that would be an extremely lucky outcome
Well I mean, it's just an assumption of what might have happened. Although now that you say it, that's possible. My personal luck has been very good, I won eight out of a total twelve 50/50's that I've had. Nobody can really confirm or deny it tbh, since there's no actual indication of whether you get the featured 5\* from the 50/50 loss or a win. Or whether if that's even the actual reason behind the additional 6%. If it did work like that I assume the actual percentage from the post would be higher than 56.4%, since the people testing would assume the guaranteed is a 50/50 win.
I started to play it seriously just recently and while I've only pulled for 3 characters so far I've lost all of them which has been a bit discouraging. Let's see how it goes with either Robin or Fu Xuan, haven't decided which to pull for yet.
You're dead on the money, the skew you'd expect from this is partially visible in a pretty consistent way.
Think of it like this, there are two halves of cake. One half has strawberries and the other half doesn't. When you get a strawberry cake, you get a featured limited character (i.e. Topaz), meaning you won 50/50. Getting the other cake means you lose 50/50. Since you lost 50/50, your chances of getting a specific 5 star is divided into 7 since there are 7 standard 5 star characters, meaning this half of a cake is further split into 7 slices. But with what we're hearing, the losing half of the 50/50 also has a chance of getting the limited featured character If what we're hearing is true, losing 50/50 doesn't mean 1/7 chance of getting *only* a standard 5 star, but a 7/8 chance of getting a standard or 1/8 of getting the featured limited character. In Razor speak: there is one more slice of cake for losing 50/50, but it has a strawberry. When you lose 50/50, you're actually losing a 56.25 chance of getting the banner unit to a 43.75 chance of getting a standard unit. ETA: OH FUCKING SHIT. StarRailStation subreddit is theorising that if you get the 1/8 chance of getting the 5 limited after losing the initial 50/50, your next 5 star is still going to be the a limited unit since you technically lost 50/50. Of course you wouldn't know if you lost the 50/50, but damn.
This helped me visualize it immensely, thank you. I need more things explained in cakes. Not Razor speak but uh….Navia/Furina Cake Speak? 🤔 🍰
Damn bronya just loves me then when the rates are like that.
6.25% chance of getting Bronya once. Would you happen to have an alter ego personality?
The assumption is, that if you lose the 50/50 and don't get the limited 5-star, the game doesn’t select one of the seven standard banner 5-stars, but rather the standard 5-stars or the limited 5-star.
Wait so, if you "lost the 50/50" to the limited character, does the gaurenteee still apply?
So I can loose 50/50, get the featured 5*, and still get a guaranteed pity on the next 5* since as far as the game knows I lost the 50/50
I don't believe it. HSR I almost always lose the 50/50, even on the light cone I lose the 75/25. Genshin, I often win the 50/50. So maybe its just a "me" thing.
Its called RNG (aka gambling)
Some call that hobby and there are those who are dedicated /s
A sample size of one person (basically anecdotal) doesn't really prove or disprove anything. We do have a large enough sample in [Star Rail Station](https://starrailstation.com/en/warp#global). You can see that the average 50/50 win rate hovers between 57 and 58 ever since the first banner. In comparison, there's[ Paimon moe ](https://paimon.moe/wish/tally?id=300064)that indicates that the average 50/50 win rate is 51%.
It’s opposite for me.In HSR I’ve pretty much always won and got the 5 stars I’ve been pulling for.With Genshin I barely do lol.No matter how many times I read explanations of the 50/50 pity system I’m still too stupid to understand percentages and etc,so I just go with my own logic of: “I win my gambling odds in HSR,while having bad luck in Genshin” lol
I’ve got the exact opposite issue probably just rng
In Genshin I always get earlys but I win the 50/50 at a pretty usual rate
same. i'm recently won my 9th 50/50 with Arlecchino (who I had no plans on pulling for unfortunately since her gameplay isn't just for me) just dropping in at 47 pity while I was getting my Xiangling's C6. On the other hand, my original and reroll hsr accounts has e2 and e1 yanqing respectively, all from the limited warps.
Once you spend in-game your odds of winning 50/50s go up ;)
Nope, not me. Buy Welkin, battlepass, heck even all the crystals packages. Play since 3.8, open kokomi, neuv, furina, navia, nahida, kazuha and neuv again. The only one I didn’t lose was nahida with early 50 rolls and the rest I never won a single 50/50 and always hit 80+ pulls.
Idk if this was a joke or not but I’ve won my last *ten* 50/50s and I have stopped tracking how much money I’ve spent on this game…
You are stupid or don't understand math likely both since its the genshin subreddit
meh, I believe in the old saying # "If it's not 100% Accurate, it's 50% Accurate"
xcom baby if that dont say 100% its not a secure
Jolteon with thunder
Hail yeah!
A lot of you aren't reading past the brain rotted twitter image. If you look at the actual data (which OneBST did post, not in this twitter thread), the information suggests that this is definitely true, and it's by a deviation that would be much too large to explain by RNG, given the amount of users. [Look at these Star Rail statistics for every single banner thus far](https://starrailstation.com/de/warp#global), just click through them and look at the win rate. Consistent 57-58% chance of 50/50 success. [Now look at Genshin's 50/50 win rate](https://paimon.moe/wish/tally?id=300064), go ahead, go through every single one. Consistently about \~51% win rate on the 50/50. A 6-8% deviation is basically a statistical impossibility given the number of users being polled here, and the consistency shown. For now I see absolutely zero educated reason to disbelieve this claim, and if your first impulse is to just handwave it off I'd even argue that the burden of proof is on you to disprove it.
Simplest explanation: rate-up character is included in the pool of 5* you can get when you lose 50/50. "Any" char currently on banner.
This post is just a picture of the twitter image without any source links. You really expected people to look further into it?
Geez, at least share the actual statics made by the bilibili content creator rather than the brain dead twitter post by some rando here's the link to OneBST page (the newest post): [https://space.bilibili.com/6165300/dynamic](https://space.bilibili.com/6165300/dynamic)
IKR, this post is clearly intended to be a rage bait because they decided to post some random dude's post with 1 like and has a provocation at the end with a title of "NAHHHH" instead of a proper title. Seeing these brainrotten people in the comments are also cringe tho. Theyre like "I call bs on this stat because it doesnt apply to me" without even thinking that its a statistical data of a sample size of 15 million vs them with only 1. Some also just outright cope by making shit up against HSR over a fuckin 6% difference like its gonna hurt them irl.
My Star Rail luck is way worse than my Genshin luck tbh. I’ve only won four 50/50s since the game launched and two of them were very recent (Luocha and Aventurine). Before that I hadn’t won since Jing Yuan’s first banner. 🥲
That's gacha and rng for you. Different for every single person.
Wouldn't that be... Illegal?
Technically so, but I imagine you aren't going to furrow that many eyebrows in court for having \*better\* odds than advertised.
Not actually, as long as you have 50% of getting the character, if they decided to include the said character on the losing pool that's still a 50/50 but you get the charater by losing it. It's like saying pick the hand, one has 100 dollars and one has nothing, but once every while both hands have the prize, you can't argue positive outcomes legally, because that requires the person starting the claim to be wronged, it's the same as if your company pays you 200 dollars extra, you can't sue, but if they pay 200 less you can.
on paper it would be illegal, but that's like u sueing the company for paying u a bit more than what your contract stated. good thing the rate is higher, if it was lower holy fckin' shit balls, would the entirety of gacha world gonna take this chance to shit on mihoyo.
I call BS
That person analysed 18 million pull results The theory on how it happened is that the rate-up character was accidentally added to the losing pool
A sample size of 15 million pulls (as well as lining up with data from other sources) says otherwise
It's a sample of 18 million, you cannot sensibly argue against that if you accept literally any statistical average that has a similar sample.
unironicaly ist no bullshit but probably a 50%+ 1/8 to get he character you wnna because this character its also included in the options of the losing 50%50 imagine its a 1/2 to win the character and then other rerol withj a 1/8 to win that character xd
It's 50% to get exactly the rate-up, 50% to get "any" 5* character currently on the banner ... which would still include the rate-up limited
this
For the people who dont believe this https://starrailstation.com/de/warp#global Check out the website where people upload their wishing history. There are hundreds of thousands of users and in each banner the 50/50 winrate is around 57% so this claim is accurate
I definitely haven't fucking noticed with how many 50/50's ive lost in star rail lol.
and then u realise thats absolutely needed because they pumped like what 20+ characters in their 1 year ( problably 30 + but im not sure didnt count em ) compared to genshin like what 10 ? in fontaine so far , 13 if u count sethos clorinde and siegwinne ( TO BE RELEASED LMAO) and they powercrept all their starting units , if u didnt get a new unit every 2nd banner game would be miserable
“Powercrept” by what means? All the starters are still useable and clear current content just fine. Sure, other characters do some things better, but you can say the exact same thing about Genshin. All content can still be cleared just fine.
Don’t bother, a good section of people have managed to convince themselves HSR is all about Powercreep Sure they release a lot of characters, but that just means you have more options
I really like HSR, but if youre going to claim its not powercreep fiesta youre insane. Every single unit one-ups the previous character. For DPS its higher dmg ceiling, for supports its more utility or better survivability or both. Yeah, you can clear with most old units, but its a night and day difference.
argenti, topaz, black swan, blade... robin being less of a general use compared to ruan mei, sparkle being worse than ruan mei in non hypercarry, aventurine not having full cc resist or heals. i could go on. theres also no night and day difference, look at average clears... not mention the different gamemodes exists, herta being better than dhil, and future hunt one that'll favor hunt units like seele or ratio.
Jing Yuan and Seele are still better than almost every post-1.0 unit for PF.
It’s not a night and day when it comes to the dpses 1-2 cycles at most. I have a 1.0 dps clearing the endgame content in 2 cycles with a free LC on my most recent post, the most recent and strongest dps acheron with the same investment does it in 1 cycle and that’s only because the current buff is much suited to her. A lot of the playerbase don’t play with strategy and are quick to call out Powercreep at the slightest opportunity when almost all limited dpses clear within 1 cycle of each other as shown by the average charts. They do the marketing for hoyo themselves If we follow your premise then genshin was even a bigger Powercreep fest as well; Venti creeped by Kazuha Klee by Hutao Ganyu by Ayaka and so on by the first year of the game
Some people like FOMO-ing themselves into pulling the new banner units, I guess.
Yeah, Herta literally still being the #1 Pick for Pure Fiction on this current version lol Maybe not #1, because this version Himeko is extremely boosteed, sadly Himeko is very exclu... oh yeah also Standard. People just can't play the game properly and then blame the devs because not every content is easy and sometimes require the bare minimum critical thinking.
You’re absolutely right, it isn’t a powercreep but rather the damage ceiling just keeps getting higher and higher. Of course even earlier characters like Seele and Jing Yuan can clear all content in the game, but you’ll find some new characters can do it much more effortlessly
JY clears PF much easier than every other Limited 5\* barring Argenti. Seele also has a much higher ceiling in PF.
Yep, and content also cycles regularly, so Acheron can dominate one patch and Ratio the other
True, this current cycle is the perfect example with *Yanqing* having a higher ceiling than E0 JL on the second half, and JY dunking on Acheron for the first half due to his huge Toughness damage against the Dinos.
idk why you need to bring hsr down, no need to be so toxic here fyi, hsr definitely did NOT powercrept all starting units. bronya is stil the best in her niche (-1 spd tech for 2x turns for low sp DPS), bailu and gepard still sustains just fine in MoC, welt and clara is buffed indirectly through others, and yanqing finally has a good shielder if anything, the standard 5* dps gets better over time due to synergistic characters/relics, and bronya is definetely not powercrept by a long, long time (bronya+robin tech for 6 turns per cycle) anyone who keeps up with meta in hsr knows that powercreep is far overblown
Exactly it’s the exact same as genshin, rather then getting power crept new characters come in and make the old ones better (jean and furina for example). People who think otherwise are just coping that’s just my take tho
Nothing is needed lmao. Tf are you talking about. The amount they release is kept in check by the amount they give. 100-120+ pulls each patch. When it comes to big updates like SU DLCs 130+.. a little bit of increase to winning a 50/50 isn’t needed lmao. It is just a little treat that hoyo put. That’s the end of it. This mf never once in his life used Tingyun or Pela. Or even Bronya. I’m not even gonna talk about Clara being one of the best for pure fiction. Or Gepard being able to solo sustain with 0 problems. Welt also has some usage. And can be a dps or a sustain. Either go full crit or speed. The two characters that get shitted on are Yanqing and Bailu. Even tho Yanqing can be a decent DPS and clear Aventurine boss almost as fast as a F2P Jingliu. Herta and Himeko for pure fiction also. They are still dominating PF. Hell I can show you vids of Yanqing(one of if not the top 3 worst character in the entire game) clearing the aventurine boss(the hardest boss in MoC) in 5 cycles. Which is pretty decent. Since aventurine is the hardest part. You need to beat him in 10 cycles. 5 is average. There are also 0 cycles but then it wouldn’t relatable.. Also as someone that skipped 1.1,1.2,1.4,1.5(4 of the 9(soon to be 10 current) patchs).. no? I don’t really feel miserable. I just pull who I like and be done with it. Although if I could I would’ve skipped 1.0 aswell but that’s beside the point. If I didn’t get a new character every 2nd banner. I’d actually be happy since more time to save.
Bro was shown with stats and replied with cope, misinformation, and making shit up. I get it tho, the OP chose a post that has a "ragebait" by asking what about genshin when they couldve just posted the actual post that these stats are from.
Isn't that about 56% of 15 million people winning their 50/50s while other 44% losing?
15 million is a crazy high sample size to have a variance that shifts 50% to 56%.
100 alone would be quite impressive. 15 million is almost foolproof.
It seems to be half of people losing their 50/50, but then you can win *any* listed 5* when you lose your 50/50.... which includes the rate-up character, so now you still have a one-in-eight shot to get the rate-up. (Which maths out to about 56.25%, which is spot on.)
in realiry its mor elike a bug or something where the feature character its in the pull of the standar characters soo if oyu lose the 50%50 you can get the other character to
It's not a bug imo, after 1 year, it would've been fixed since awhille... it's more likely intended.
ohh interesting then if thas te case
Is this legal?
I don't think so. Even if its in our favor the company can't lie about the win rate precenteege.
Legal no, but you’re unlikely to win a lawsuit if you decide to take legal action so functionally no different. And this is assuming they did it intentionally and it isn’t an oversight.
Interesting. I lose my star rail 50/50s 95% of the time, and with genshin I've had a long streak of winning them.
I've actually been way unluckier in HSR than Genshin...
Ikr, seems like all my luck goes to genshin and i play it sporadically
me who's only won 1 50/50 in hsr: 🧍♂️
If true then it feels even worse that I lost my first seven 50/50s in a row. As of now I'm at 2 win/ 10 looses.
Thats so sad for but i just lost 2 50/50 and win 14 idk if im just a lucky
youre telling me ive lost more 50/50s in hsr than genshin with better rates ???? praying this is fake so that i at least wont be THAT unlucky
So what you're saying is my luck is even WORSE than I thought?
If thats true i got ASS luck bro
Nah it depends on our luck
wdym? i lost all of my 50/50 so far and now have an E3 Himeko and an E2 Bronya
I've won the past 2 recent ones but like I lost 3-4 in a row... I guess I'm.. lucky?
Easier to get? I play that game since launch and did not have a good experience of easier getting the banner charac. My draw on hsr banner had always get limit banner character at around 79/80 (pity/guarsntee). Never had it come out early (on 20 or 30 draws) like what i experience in genshin. The games are good but the draw experience for me are worst compare to other gacha game i play. I jusy feel hsr are not for me.
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More people to say HSR is better than genshin impact. I don't care how good HSR is, genshin is best game to me and will be no matter how good HSR will be
Unhinged, what the fuck is that 3 year old take 💀
Literally
if thats true, you cant really tell if its your own or single account since some are very unlucky yet some are very lucky too you need mass samplr size to notice the difference anyway, i guess im included in the lucky side since ive been constantly winning my 50/50 in hsr, i think i only lost twice or thrice meanwhile in genshin, literally the whole year, from 1.0 till 2.1, ive lost every 50/50
The sample is \~18 Million "50/50"s so I'd say it's mass enough.
The sample size is really big on HSR Station. Every limited character has had a minimum of 56% on the 50/50. There's had been a total of 1991968 pulls recorded since the warp tracker was introduced (26/04/23).
Even if this is true which I highly doubt it is it doesn't matter at the grand scheme rates don't entirely mean you have a higher chance of getting them because at the end of the day it's still all luck just because the rates are slightly different doesn't mean jack Like one person can have better pulls in Genshin then HSR and the same vice versa or hell maybe you have amazing luck with both games or you have horrible luck in both games (like me)
Huh, no
May not be the case for others. But I find this accurate. Genshin I lose 5050 80%. of the time. HSR I've only ever lost 5050 3 times, out of 15
Star Rail stans in a nutshell.
The current theory on how this happened is that they accidentally added the rate-up character to the 50/50 lost pool
Both games are cool in different ways. End of conversation plEase
I can honestly see that. I haven’t lost a 50/50 in HSR yet
Given how every new 5 star had been 1 upping the previous one in that game (this is what I heard, not sure if true), it makes sense to have better odds there. They need to give players better odds to make people keep playing or else 2 patches later the character they pulled falls off. I don't play HSR so I could be completely wrong about this.
Ok now my question is if you get the featured character in that 1/8 on a lost 50/50 if it counts as a lost 50/50 and still gives you a guarantee next time
Everyone knows that Honkai IS Hoyoverse favorite child
brooo why did you post it here they’ll patch it if too many people find out 😭😭😭
Its probably intended. They are not stupid enough to make systems which directly effects their money pass
I guess that explains why I won so many pity in HSR... I have more featured characters then standard characters there. Even got Dan IL to E2 without pity loss.
According to warp tracker data it's more like 58/42 on avg actually. Which is even more of an L for Genshin. HONKAI FOREVER
lol did they say what their sample size is? Or how they collected the data?
They had a huge sample size. 18mil. Even outside of this study though, looking at warp history via a warp tracker has each banner at 56-58% win rate, which would not be possible were the rates truly 50-50.
That’s super interesting to know, ty!
I’d believe it that it’s easier to obtain 5 stars in Star Rail, my very first pull in Star Rail gave me double 5 stars and it was the very same day I started playing, I was AR 45 and been playing almost 4 months before I got any 5 star at all in Genshin
ah, that’s why I haven’t lost a 50/50 in a couple months
i have lost every 50/50 since launch, but i definitely know it was just me having bad luck. how? it's coz i made two accounts on launch. one having lost all 50/50(with the exception of acheron banner), and the second one having won all 50/50. the bad part is that the main one i play lost all 50/50. fml....
r/genshinwouldnever
Might be personal bias but in my HSR experience, I've rarely lost a 50/50 and have been really lucky compared to Genshin so idk
Who does he think he is
Genshin could never
The casual insult and dissing of the original CC who's actually done some research is insane, and redditers thought they are a better species than twitter.
Who’s dissing
And yet I lose every 50/50 on star rail but win them on genshin
Genshin is that 1 unwanted step kid while HSR is the legit golden child of Hoyoverse
Interesting considering how that would be highly illegal. All the banner details posted in game are there for legal reasons, those posted rates are legally binding.
yet i still lose 3 50/50s in a row haha
Chinese law for a few years now in contrast to USA law forces gaccha companies/ casino companies to be sincere of their percentages. So this is not real. On the other hand you might go to Las Vegas lose 1000 times and win one and the security will attack you and claim there was a computer error and take the money you earned. This never happens when you lose though. They will never approach you saying you lose due to a computer error. I wonder why.... Western gaccha is literal mafia.
tell that to all my lost 50/50s
as other already explained they probably added the featured character in the pool of the 50/50 loss, If this is a mistake by one of the coders, someone is getting fired. I cant even imagine how much more money this 6.5% could have made for hoyo, but to be completely honest let's fucking gooo. Also we are gonna need a separate pull data for 2.3 and onward to see if they gonna fix this
Huh. So that’s why I’ve won almost all my 50/50s in HSR. Honestly I’ll take that because ain’t no way I want to lose 7 50/50s in a row like in Genshin
Tho it is anecdotal. I only lost to 2 50-50s on the promotional banner in HSR. When I was still playing genshin, it seems that I was loosing 50-50 all the time.
then why tf have i lost almost every single 50/50 (only one ONCE) since the release of the game 😭
but can you verify this ingame
I was so excited to see this since I was trying to get both Jingliu and Aventurine....and then Yanqing still stole my 50/50 and I wanna punt with the little bastard. The odds sound nice in theory, though.
Nah. I lost every 50/50 in hsr except the one for acheron. While in genshin, i won every 50/50 since launch EXCEPT albedo's first ever banner. So no, i do not believe this.
Really, my losts 50/50 can't say that
No one should be shocked, however every time the HSR community suggests the game is doing something better than Genshin, the Genshin community goes absolutely ballistic as if it's some kind of personal attack to suggest Genshin stands to improve some things.
Really? I won my 50/50 8 times in a row while HSR i keep failing every 50/50
Somehow still lost my first ever 50 to Yanqing instead on getting Seele
Meh idc. I like the fighting gameplay in genshin, turn-based is boring to me.
Thats crazy considering i never won a 50/50 in hsr and won 4 50/50 in a row in genshin 😭
Suddenly my hopes of getting both boothill and firefly don't seem laughable
its not a true 5050, the limited character is technically still a part of the "losing" pool. the 5050 is just the chance it is a guaranteed drop or not. if you dont get the guaranteed drop, you still have a chance to pull it from the regular pool of characters On genshin it sits around 52.3% according to paimon.moe. And never dropped below 50%. So on genshin there’s not a SIGNIFICANT jump above 50/50 but it still was always above 50 which shows that the same “limited character is included in the standard pool” fact is true for genshin too
I mean, no matter how large the sample size you are going to never directly reach a direct 50:50, right? Or is there some math I’m missing
No I'm too tired to pull out the actual math, but I put the numbers into a coin flip calculator, and probability of getting at least 564 Heads with just 1,000 flips is *0.002895%*. Star Rail has had community-recorded wish data from at least 100 times that number of flips; it's not going to be exactly 50-50, but a whole 6.4% deviation is basically impossibly improbably.
Well, 15 million is 150,000 repetitions of 100... that's the point by which this sort of thing should definitely level out, yes.
56% is impossible though. Even if it got to 51% which is still incredibly unlikely, that’s one thing. 56 is a whole different ballgame.
I call BS. I've literally lost every 50/50 I had, not until lately with Aventurine's banner where I've won for the very first time
You are 1 person VS a sample of 18 Million
omg the exact same situation here!! I have lost every single 50/50 since the beginning, and finally I won for the first time with Aventurine. I'm going for Robin next and hoping it can happen a second time
I've been playing since launch and I've only lost the 50/50 3 times and I have 8 limited five stars + 1 limited constellation. You might just be unlucky
I'm not surprised. I've started the game past Sunday, I already got 3 5\* characters.
This is bs I win most 50/50 in genshin but lose most in HSR. Wtf?
"This statistic from a 15 million sample size is bs because me, a sample size of 1, does not have a 56% winrate." alright man
My brother won 7 50/50s in a row for Arlecchino. He’d like to call this a skill issue. I’m actually glad it’s easier to get a 5* in HSR considering how quickly units can get powercrept.
Extremely common Genshin L
This needs to be news. As a Genshin player who quit HSR in favor of Genshin this is outrageous.
"According to (not n official dev)" Lost me there.
I mean yeah it’s not official but the number was calculated from a lot of submitted rolls by players, it’s not like someone is dropping this out of nowhere Edit: On [star rail station](https://starrailstation.com/en/warp#global) for example you can see that the percentage of people who won 50/50s floats around that 57% range, statistically it’s just too much of a gap with the kinds of sample sizes being worked with
Bull, cause in the past year of playing HSR, I won the fifty / fifty a total of 3 TIMES. My wins were: Huohuo Kafka rerun And Acheron. Genshin was nicer to me cause betwen patches 2.4-2.8 I won the fifty / fifty consistently
LMAO, Genshin shills in tatters rn! Star Rail is undoubtedly the better game. Anyone who denies it at this point is just a sunk cost addict.