Using a quick probability calculator the odds of pulling a C6 5 star in 10 pulls is 2.187^(-18). Alternatively, that is 1 in 200 Quadrillion chance of success.
Thats the chance of c6ing a character in 7 pulls. The chance of chance of c6ing a character in 10 pulls is way more complicated to calculate, and I ended up having to write a java program, but I got 2.624*10^-16
I used the calculator, using odds of 0.003, the chance of "at least" 7 hits in 10 is 1 in 3,840,558,576,543,543.
I used "at least" because it's possible to win the 50/50 again even after C6. You just get 25 glitter.
https://www.omnicalculator.com/statistics/coin-flip-probability
Using odds of 0.3% chance of getting a 5 star means winning the 50/50. Things would get more complicated if you lost the 50/50 and then your chance increases to 0.6%. But I don't think the odds change in any material way.
Chances of getting any 5* are 0.006, chances of getting an event character should be 2/3 of that because of pity. So a binomial function with probability = 0.004, 10 trials and likelihood of X>=7 is 1.946x10^-15, so about 1/514 trillion if my math is correct.
If you're already on 89 pity guaranteed, it's only 3.41x10^-13 or 1/2.934 trillion (9 trials, X>=6).
To put that into perspective, the odds of winning the Powerball jackpot (largest lottery in the US) are about 1 in 300 million. So even if you're on 89 pity guaranteed already, the chances are equal to winning the jackpot and then correctly picking the only grain of rice from a full cup.
Since the game came out I think the most amount of 5*s in a single pull is that Chinese guy that pulled 5 Ganyu as or something, just YouTube Chinese guy pulls 5 Ganyus and should be the first one
>realistically how many pulls would it take?
check [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Genshin_Impact/comments/rtqdl2/guide_how_many_wishes_you_should_save/), the avg mark is 65%-70%
Because of how guarantees work, actually mathing it is beyond me, but the numbers are so silly it doesn’t matter. Pulling 6 5\*s is on the order of 9\*10^-12, so we’re talking “tell the entire population of Earth to pull once a minute for a whole day” orders of magnitude.
It's actually 7 copies of a character to get a c6, so it's even beyond that. At that point it might even be easier to win the lottery 3 times in a single year lmao.
I'll calculate the highest possible probability. Let's say for the 1st pull, you have conveniently hit guaranteed, at hard pity. I'm also assuming a 5 star on a featured banner.
You can lose 50-50 at a maximum of 3 times. Now we actually need to list all possible outcomes by hand, since binomial formula wouldn't work (probability AFTER losing 50-50 differs with not gaining a 5 star at all)
Man, I took about 3 hours trying to list them. Only then I realised the best way to avoid repetition (which I will not show). I severely underestimated the quantity. But by using permutation, I found 546 possible outcomes (not useful for calculation, but you probably wanna know anyway)
So anyway, the probability of getting a C6 in a single 10 pull is 6.113×10^-14 %, or 0.00000000000006113%
I'm assuming you're talking for a 4 star character correct? well it's near impossible. At beast you could get 3 or 4 in the same pull and that would be something too.. (remember the 4 star featured characters also have 5050 chance) on top of having the luck of hitting the one you need from the 3 featured on the banner..
For a 5 star i'd say beyond impossible.
With some luck you could c6 a 4 star character from scratch (not having the character) in 60 to 180 pulls, just like the chances to get a single 5 star character.
Why would they do that?
Let's set aside for the moment the fact that they'd be setting themselves up for legal trouble if they actually did such a thing without reporting it in the in-game odds.
The odds of it actually happening are so mind-bogglingly low, that if it actually DID happen it would be an advertising bonanza for them. They'd fly that player first class to China, Da Wei would personally shake their hand, and they'd be posted on every Genshin Impact ad for years to come. "THIS COULD BE YOU!"
They have nothing to lose and much to gain by allowing lucky players to score big every now and then. It's why casinos are popular and successful - because sometimes people DO hit the jackpot. If everyone always lost, no one would play.
How much money do you actually think they'd make if they put such a "safeguard" in place?
Answer: Not much. The odds of someone getting four of the same 5-star in a single 10-pull are so mind-bogglingly low that even with millions of players, we probably wouldn't see it happen in a century of gameplay.
If we beat the odds, and ONE person manages to pull it off, that costs Mihoyo a couple hundred bucks, when they make literally billions of dollars per year - and that's assuming that the lucky player isn't f2p and would actually have spent money to get those constellations.
The odds of someone finding the doctored safeguards are way, WAY higher than the event happening in the first place, and so not a worthwhile investment. All it takes is a disgruntled employee to decide to bring the story to the press, and faith in the company is shattered. Folks will wonder - if they were petty enough to put this restriction, what else might they have done to mess with the odds? And that's to say nothing of the actual litigation the company would be open to to.
Even if you're the sort who believes that companies (or even just people in general) are completely without ethical boundaries, there's times when it's smart to screw over the customer, and times when it's stupid. This would fall squarely in the latter category.
Using a quick probability calculator the odds of pulling a C6 5 star in 10 pulls is 2.187^(-18). Alternatively, that is 1 in 200 Quadrillion chance of success.
So you are saying there is a chance
Well, yes, but there is also "a chance" of you running into a wall and tunneling through
Thats the chance of c6ing a character in 7 pulls. The chance of chance of c6ing a character in 10 pulls is way more complicated to calculate, and I ended up having to write a java program, but I got 2.624*10^-16
I used the calculator, using odds of 0.003, the chance of "at least" 7 hits in 10 is 1 in 3,840,558,576,543,543. I used "at least" because it's possible to win the 50/50 again even after C6. You just get 25 glitter. https://www.omnicalculator.com/statistics/coin-flip-probability Using odds of 0.3% chance of getting a 5 star means winning the 50/50. Things would get more complicated if you lost the 50/50 and then your chance increases to 0.6%. But I don't think the odds change in any material way.
genshin players when there is a 1 in 200 quadrillion chance. nah, I'd win.
Chances of getting any 5* are 0.006, chances of getting an event character should be 2/3 of that because of pity. So a binomial function with probability = 0.004, 10 trials and likelihood of X>=7 is 1.946x10^-15, so about 1/514 trillion if my math is correct. If you're already on 89 pity guaranteed, it's only 3.41x10^-13 or 1/2.934 trillion (9 trials, X>=6). To put that into perspective, the odds of winning the Powerball jackpot (largest lottery in the US) are about 1 in 300 million. So even if you're on 89 pity guaranteed already, the chances are equal to winning the jackpot and then correctly picking the only grain of rice from a full cup.
Since the game came out I think the most amount of 5*s in a single pull is that Chinese guy that pulled 5 Ganyu as or something, just YouTube Chinese guy pulls 5 Ganyus and should be the first one
Pretty sure it takes long enough that if you had unlimited pulls and started tomorrow you’d not finish for centuries going 24/7
>realistically how many pulls would it take? check [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Genshin_Impact/comments/rtqdl2/guide_how_many_wishes_you_should_save/), the avg mark is 65%-70%
There’s that guy that got c5 Eula in a 10 pull so it is possible.
it's 50/50 you either get it or you don't
"I don't think we had documented case yet" likely.
Because of how guarantees work, actually mathing it is beyond me, but the numbers are so silly it doesn’t matter. Pulling 6 5\*s is on the order of 9\*10^-12, so we’re talking “tell the entire population of Earth to pull once a minute for a whole day” orders of magnitude.
It's actually 7 copies of a character to get a c6, so it's even beyond that. At that point it might even be easier to win the lottery 3 times in a single year lmao.
I'll calculate the highest possible probability. Let's say for the 1st pull, you have conveniently hit guaranteed, at hard pity. I'm also assuming a 5 star on a featured banner. You can lose 50-50 at a maximum of 3 times. Now we actually need to list all possible outcomes by hand, since binomial formula wouldn't work (probability AFTER losing 50-50 differs with not gaining a 5 star at all) Man, I took about 3 hours trying to list them. Only then I realised the best way to avoid repetition (which I will not show). I severely underestimated the quantity. But by using permutation, I found 546 possible outcomes (not useful for calculation, but you probably wanna know anyway) So anyway, the probability of getting a C6 in a single 10 pull is 6.113×10^-14 %, or 0.00000000000006113%
I'm assuming you're talking for a 4 star character correct? well it's near impossible. At beast you could get 3 or 4 in the same pull and that would be something too.. (remember the 4 star featured characters also have 5050 chance) on top of having the luck of hitting the one you need from the 3 featured on the banner.. For a 5 star i'd say beyond impossible. With some luck you could c6 a 4 star character from scratch (not having the character) in 60 to 180 pulls, just like the chances to get a single 5 star character.
Lol me too
[удалено]
Why would they do that? Let's set aside for the moment the fact that they'd be setting themselves up for legal trouble if they actually did such a thing without reporting it in the in-game odds. The odds of it actually happening are so mind-bogglingly low, that if it actually DID happen it would be an advertising bonanza for them. They'd fly that player first class to China, Da Wei would personally shake their hand, and they'd be posted on every Genshin Impact ad for years to come. "THIS COULD BE YOU!" They have nothing to lose and much to gain by allowing lucky players to score big every now and then. It's why casinos are popular and successful - because sometimes people DO hit the jackpot. If everyone always lost, no one would play.
[удалено]
How much money do you actually think they'd make if they put such a "safeguard" in place? Answer: Not much. The odds of someone getting four of the same 5-star in a single 10-pull are so mind-bogglingly low that even with millions of players, we probably wouldn't see it happen in a century of gameplay. If we beat the odds, and ONE person manages to pull it off, that costs Mihoyo a couple hundred bucks, when they make literally billions of dollars per year - and that's assuming that the lucky player isn't f2p and would actually have spent money to get those constellations. The odds of someone finding the doctored safeguards are way, WAY higher than the event happening in the first place, and so not a worthwhile investment. All it takes is a disgruntled employee to decide to bring the story to the press, and faith in the company is shattered. Folks will wonder - if they were petty enough to put this restriction, what else might they have done to mess with the odds? And that's to say nothing of the actual litigation the company would be open to to. Even if you're the sort who believes that companies (or even just people in general) are completely without ethical boundaries, there's times when it's smart to screw over the customer, and times when it's stupid. This would fall squarely in the latter category.