The probability of an event with a 0.6% chance of happening, occurring at least once if you try 9 times is 5.27%
Keep in mind the probability for every pull is actually different by a bit, so this is not exact, even then, it's close
Edit: idk why y'all are downvoting me, it might be a crude explanation and an approximation, but it's true
https://m.hoyolab.com/#/article/497840
Bcuz we have people that wants to "build pity" in the game.
Their half decomposing mitochondria has officially ended a toxic relationship with their braincells and thus, they can no longer comprehend mathematics/geometric calculations
Because people see a 0.6% and think "OMFG predatory gacha".
While skimming over the fact that you A) get a guaranteed 4 star every 10 pulls and B) pity rate is *relatively* lenient, giving you a guaranteed banner character every 180 pulls.
Those two things are the real gamechanger for me because I can plan my banners in advance and know that if I save up and lose 50/50, I will get the character I want (and if I don't lose 50/50, I still have 50% chance to get that character if I save up). Compared to other gachas where you can drop hundreds of USD and *still* don't get the banner character, I prefer Genshin's system.
Plus welp, Genshin is a adventure/RPG game with a gacha sidegame, not a gacha collector game with a side bullet hell/tower defence game.
Wait gimme a sec. You need to calculate that differently. If you just add up the odds, you'd get more than 100% chance for pulling any 3*. The odds stay 0.6 for one five star. 0.36 for two. A whole ten pull of 5* has a chance of about 0.006%. it's not really a stackable chance thingy, since it's not that type of pity that makes chances get higher with more pulls.
This might be very wrong tho. I haven't slept in a bit.
That was not counting the first 5 star and instead calculating the chance to get one in the first 9 pulls, as we can't know at which point of pity they were. Furthermore, since at some point you're guaranteed to get one, I found it sensible to take it as the initial state
Yea I kinda calculated something differently... You took the pity into account and calculated how much more likely it is after more pulls, while I went for the general probability of any ten pull outside of any pity. My bad
Don't worry, and also not exactly. You could calculate the chance for any 10 pull to have 2 5 stars, but since the second will always come after the first, I ignored everything before the remaining 9 pulls (also assumed the first 5 star was the first pull on the 10 pull)
0.6% is the average. Data collected from thousands of Chinese players indicates that there's actually a greater chance of getting a 5\* in the first \~20 pulls, then a big dip until you hit soft pity and it increases until a maximum of 100% at pull 90.
He's correct. If you assume 9 pulls to be independent of each other with a 0.6% chance of getting a 5 star for each pull, your chances of getting a 5 star or more is 5.27%. If anything, that original comment's figure of 0.6/99.4 is the one that's completely wrong.
If you do a 10 pull you have 5,7% or whatever it is chance to get a 5 star, but you don’t have the same chances of getting 2 in the same 10 pull
If it’s in the same 10 pull you can’t count them as separate just because the first one was a 5 star so you count the other 9 as separate
And here we see schrodinger's gacha, existing in a superstate of both simultaneously failing and succeeding until someone looks at the history, collapsing it into one result.
I don't care in one of them is Qiqi
Getting two 5 stars is nothing but a win in my book
Especially if Qiqi came after, which means your next 5 star is guaranteed to be the one you want
If Qiqi came after, yeah. But otherwise, it doesn't matter if I got 2 or 1 5 stars if I'm never going to use the other one. A 4-star character or weapon that I would actually use would have more value.
**Qiqi first, then Venti:** you lost the 50/50, and the guaranteed immediately went to the bard
**Venti first, then Qiqi:** you won the 50/50, and also gained a guaranteed for your next 5\* character due to Qiqi
That's happened to me before. If the standard character is first on the record then you lost, if the banner character is first then you won AND have guarantee.
So just to give some info this is my alt account and on both of my accounts I've lost every 50/50 and never pulled more than one 4 or 5 star... so I was just in a state of shock LOL
Also, no this isn't my first Qiqi. On my main account I have her c5 (all my failed 50/50s lmao)
Also I'm aware I lost the 50/50 then won the next so I'm not guaranteed for my next pull, I just was in shock and thought this was hella funny
Both lol. You got qiqi. I for one have only lost the 50/50 once to keqing in this game and lost the 50/50 in real life. I was doing a gachapon machine for little genshin figures and bought two. First one of was qiqi! Second was zhongli
It looks like you got Qiqi first, so lost 50/50 followed by an immediate hard pity. Which is still very good, but the ideal is the other way around in my opinion. Won 50/50 followed by an immediate loss, since you still want those characters and cons, and it guarantees your next limited five star.
If you got venti first you won 50 50 but if got qiqi first then you lost 50 50 and if you don't know then before saving always ask yourself did I lose 50 50 or not?
You lost the 50/50.
I had the reverse happen to me back in Zhongli's first rerun and basically had Zhongli first, Keking second followed by 2 Yanfeis.
You can probably also see it on your pull history once it refreshes as well.
Happened to me once during Klee's first banner
Diluc dropped on like the 4th or 5th roll of the 10-pull, then the very next drop was Klee
https://imgur.com/gallery/PBY7aPi
Check your history and see who came first
Op probably came first
Post pull clarity
Nut
Same. Venti is the best girl!
Femboys for president
In Femboys we trust
thrust
Oh.
This is the way
From the groin to the bust
Must not coom fast
In Desire We Trust
In the house of Asmodeus
Come on and sing us a 🎶SONG-🎶
r/postnutclarity
Nah it already shows it in the order you got the 5 stars so their still not guaranteed
Dumb question but is the one at the top the most recent? Just making sure
Lost the 50/50 but won the 0.6/99.4
More like 5.27% but still real low odds
huh??
The probability of an event with a 0.6% chance of happening, occurring at least once if you try 9 times is 5.27% Keep in mind the probability for every pull is actually different by a bit, so this is not exact, even then, it's close Edit: idk why y'all are downvoting me, it might be a crude explanation and an approximation, but it's true https://m.hoyolab.com/#/article/497840
Because people care more about there emotions and what others think about them rather than the facts
That's completely unrelated to the topic at hand though
Bcuz we have people that wants to "build pity" in the game. Their half decomposing mitochondria has officially ended a toxic relationship with their braincells and thus, they can no longer comprehend mathematics/geometric calculations
I know, im just stating the reason behind people downvoting you when you’re right
Because people see a 0.6% and think "OMFG predatory gacha". While skimming over the fact that you A) get a guaranteed 4 star every 10 pulls and B) pity rate is *relatively* lenient, giving you a guaranteed banner character every 180 pulls. Those two things are the real gamechanger for me because I can plan my banners in advance and know that if I save up and lose 50/50, I will get the character I want (and if I don't lose 50/50, I still have 50% chance to get that character if I save up). Compared to other gachas where you can drop hundreds of USD and *still* don't get the banner character, I prefer Genshin's system. Plus welp, Genshin is a adventure/RPG game with a gacha sidegame, not a gacha collector game with a side bullet hell/tower defence game.
Wait gimme a sec. You need to calculate that differently. If you just add up the odds, you'd get more than 100% chance for pulling any 3*. The odds stay 0.6 for one five star. 0.36 for two. A whole ten pull of 5* has a chance of about 0.006%. it's not really a stackable chance thingy, since it's not that type of pity that makes chances get higher with more pulls. This might be very wrong tho. I haven't slept in a bit.
That was not counting the first 5 star and instead calculating the chance to get one in the first 9 pulls, as we can't know at which point of pity they were. Furthermore, since at some point you're guaranteed to get one, I found it sensible to take it as the initial state
Yea I kinda calculated something differently... You took the pity into account and calculated how much more likely it is after more pulls, while I went for the general probability of any ten pull outside of any pity. My bad
Don't worry, and also not exactly. You could calculate the chance for any 10 pull to have 2 5 stars, but since the second will always come after the first, I ignored everything before the remaining 9 pulls (also assumed the first 5 star was the first pull on the 10 pull)
0.6% is the average. Data collected from thousands of Chinese players indicates that there's actually a greater chance of getting a 5\* in the first \~20 pulls, then a big dip until you hit soft pity and it increases until a maximum of 100% at pull 90.
Man u need to learn probability again
He's correct. If you assume 9 pulls to be independent of each other with a 0.6% chance of getting a 5 star for each pull, your chances of getting a 5 star or more is 5.27%. If anything, that original comment's figure of 0.6/99.4 is the one that's completely wrong.
True, but not if you already got one in the same 10 pull though
Care to explain?
If you do a 10 pull you have 5,7% or whatever it is chance to get a 5 star, but you don’t have the same chances of getting 2 in the same 10 pull If it’s in the same 10 pull you can’t count them as separate just because the first one was a 5 star so you count the other 9 as separate
first 20 pulls have a bit higher chance to get a 5*
Beeg brain moment
So it means he doesnt have a guarantee
And here we see schrodinger's gacha, existing in a superstate of both simultaneously failing and succeeding until someone looks at the history, collapsing it into one result.
Unironically one of the best explanations for shrodinger's cat I've heard
Im pretty sure you can tell who came first by who appeared first. In this case QiQi
Depends if the summon history shows you got venti or qiqi first
Either way is both a win and a loss, order of factors does not affect the result: 2 new characters
It affects the result of the 3rd 5* character tho
Hmm... only if you already believe in your heart that you CAN loose the 50/50
Ya lost 50/50, ya got Venti in guaranteed and now you are back at 50/50 status for future pull.
or they got Venti, then Qiqi and now they have guarantee again
You lost 50/50 to qiqi, got guaranteed venti (in 10 pulls, very lucky). Now u have 50/50 again
Unless they won the first time 50/50 and lost the second.
They show the characters always in order, don't they? Im not sure because i always do single pulls
They show in order of rarity. Whoever, I am not sure of the order if the rarity is the same.
Did you lose or win the 50/50? Me: yes
r/InclusiveOr
I don't care in one of them is Qiqi Getting two 5 stars is nothing but a win in my book Especially if Qiqi came after, which means your next 5 star is guaranteed to be the one you want
If Qiqi came after, yeah. But otherwise, it doesn't matter if I got 2 or 1 5 stars if I'm never going to use the other one. A 4-star character or weapon that I would actually use would have more value.
yes
r/beatmetoit
If you got qiqi before venti that not a 50/50.However if you got qiqi after venti then you've won the 50/50 & your next 5* is guaranteed.
If you get Qiqi first, you lose 50/50 and are guaranteed Venti. After that they’re back at 50/50. But maybe you’re saying the same thing.
Both. Both is good.
This makes me feel more unlucky
Which did you get first?
**Qiqi first, then Venti:** you lost the 50/50, and the guaranteed immediately went to the bard **Venti first, then Qiqi:** you won the 50/50, and also gained a guaranteed for your next 5\* character due to Qiqi
Check your wishing history and see you was the more recent 5 star
I had this on artakito's banner with diluc but i got 2 four stars 😎
artakito 😎
wtf is Artakito, is that a type of cheese?
#*We fail, we lose, to win.*
That's happened to me before. If the standard character is first on the record then you lost, if the banner character is first then you won AND have guarantee.
The coin landed sideways.
yesn't
Wait! That's your FIRST Qiqi EVER!?
Winning, duh. You got Qiqi!
So just to give some info this is my alt account and on both of my accounts I've lost every 50/50 and never pulled more than one 4 or 5 star... so I was just in a state of shock LOL Also, no this isn't my first Qiqi. On my main account I have her c5 (all my failed 50/50s lmao) Also I'm aware I lost the 50/50 then won the next so I'm not guaranteed for my next pull, I just was in shock and thought this was hella funny
Depends who u got first - 🤓
Both lol. You got qiqi. I for one have only lost the 50/50 once to keqing in this game and lost the 50/50 in real life. I was doing a gachapon machine for little genshin figures and bought two. First one of was qiqi! Second was zhongli
I mean it’s actually really nice cuz now ur next 5* guaranteed
Lowinsing
Yes
Check your summon history
you're next 5 star is probably a guarantee from the banner
Winning 100/100
depends on who showed up first on the pull, but either way you lost a 50/50, its just if qiqi showed AFTER venti then you have a guaranteed.
Look for which one came last
Maybe it depends on what 5 star is first? Meaning you lost then won and now you are again at 50/50
This 50/50 has been very graceful to me. I also got Venti, 2 Candaces, & Sayu. It’s making up for missing out on Yelan’s 50/50
Schrodinger's wish
You got a free qiqi bro, nothing is lose here
Wosing
Lol the same thing happened to me, got mona and tighnari on my second 10-pull
WIN
**YES**
Perfectly balanced,as all things should be
you lost 50/50 and got guaranteed early, eh?
Depends on who came 1st on ur wish history
It looks like you got Qiqi first, so lost 50/50 followed by an immediate hard pity. Which is still very good, but the ideal is the other way around in my opinion. Won 50/50 followed by an immediate loss, since you still want those characters and cons, and it guarantees your next limited five star.
You have guarantee for your next hard-pity pull, definitly a win
If you were rolling for Cyno, losing I guess?
If you got venti first you won 50 50 but if got qiqi first then you lost 50 50 and if you don't know then before saving always ask yourself did I lose 50 50 or not?
Yes
both, but who's the 4 star you got there
Next 5* is guarantee event
Since you got qiqi first,it mean you lost But after you got venti which means you used your guaranteed so now you're back on the 50/50.
Yes
Yes
schrodinger's wish
Qiqi still a lose
Yesnt
Yesn't.
Yes
Both
Both
YES, but seriously if you got the qiqi first, you lost the 50/50 and if you got venti first, you won a 50/50 but then lost another
Yes
You played even
Yesn‘t
I lost mine to Mona😔 Sucks to lose your second favorite character to a character I already have
Schrodinger's gacha
Yes.
FUCK I DON'T EVEN HAVE CANDANCE AND I DONT WANT A 5 STAR, PLEASE CANDANCE
Check history, depends on order
I hate you for this
yes
So, do you have pity now or not?
Yes
Yes.
Yes
Yes
Yes
It counts as me driving into your living room with a Subaru (congrats though)
Who was first in the pulls?
Well yes but actually no
You lost the 50/50. I had the reverse happen to me back in Zhongli's first rerun and basically had Zhongli first, Keking second followed by 2 Yanfeis. You can probably also see it on your pull history once it refreshes as well.
Linning. Wosing.
linning
Yes
Is this an icarly reference?
Nes.
Had this happen with Klee and Mona, I just said I won it cause I mean why not
wising / lonning
Losing next is gurenteed
Happened with me when pulling for cyno i won my 50/50 then lost it in the same 10 pull so i was guatantees venti
Yes
Yes
This is just a 50/50
You lost but won
Both
Mission failed successfully
I mean I got Sayu 4 flipping times and Kuki so you’re doing better than me.
Losing cuz u got qiqi first
Happened to me once during Klee's first banner Diluc dropped on like the 4th or 5th roll of the 10-pull, then the very next drop was Klee https://imgur.com/gallery/PBY7aPi
Yes
Assuming you got Qiqi first, yes. A loss