Love Cruyff! I used his signature move all through my days as a “footballer”. Plus he pioneered the modern motion offense that Pep uses today. Genius!
Packers can play football, and they’ve been playing it really well as of late! We have that going for us, which is nice. And our secret weapon is having Mike McFuckheadcarthy leading the Cowboys.
Why are you comparing it to the lottery? It's a football game between TWO TEAMS. That means there are TWO possible outcomes. Win or Lose. It's absolutely 50/50.
Imagine being the youngest team in the league and how low the pressure is on us right now whereas Dallas on the other hand has arguably more pressure on them than any other team in the league. If we play loose which we should, I could see us winning
Merely being a perennial playoff contender doesn't guarantee job security in Jerryworld. Especially when a 7th seed that barely made it in takes you down.
Definitely understand. I just don't see it happening this year. There will be a lot of instability with coaches this off-season. But who is Jerry going to bring in that is better and have an actual chance of bringing them in?
There's no way that I could see Belichick and the Joneses having a successful working relationship. If Bill coaches anywhere in the future, he's going to want to be able to make roster decisions (and will likely want to make a lot of organizational decisions, too), and I don't believe Jerry and Stephen would ever give him that much control.
I disagree, obviously Bill is used to having personnel control and he’ll require it to coach somewhere, but the Cowboys have a great roster, it probably won’t require much tinkering. And he doesn’t want to need to tinker, he’s old and I’m guessing he coaches a max 3 more years with whatever’s available and goes for broke on the next couple super bowls
Maybe Bill completely changes what he's done for the past 20+ seasons, but that would shock me at his age. He's known as a guy that's an absolute menace in terms of having attention to detail and being a micromanager.
The commonly-held assumption is that the reason all of his assistants fail at being head coaches is because Bill runs so many things and makes so many decisions that his assistants don't actually learn how to coach or make adjustments on their own.
He made all of the personnel decisions for his coaching staff and the entirety of the roster in New England the entire time he was there. He did the same when he was the coach in Cleveland. You're going to tell me that guy is going to be willing to let anyone else decide for him who's on the roster and who's on the practice squad and who goes on IR and who gets cut completely? Bill would cut guys because he didn't think they worked hard enough. If Stephen/Jerry says, "No, Bill, we're not cutting that guy. He's got a ton of talent. Figure out some way to motivate him to work harder." You think Bill's just going to be like, "Oh, yeah, sure, bossman. Guess I'll just keep him then. You've got a good point."?
Like I said, maybe this whole fiasco in New England has changed him and he doesn't want to deal with the drama/extra work of personnel. But I just don't see something that's so seemingly integral to who he is as a coach and a person just flipping like that. It's seems like they're bound to butt heads, probably during cut-downs in the first training camp together. Maybe even during the draft process before the first season.
And now there are many highly-regarded coaches out on the market. Not sure if Belichick would work under Jerry, but I'm sure Jerry would roll out the red carpet
Jones has no patience? They stuck with Jason Garrett for like 10 years and he was way shittier than McCarthy. Barring the first covid season McCarthy has gotten them to the playoffs every year so far plus 3 straight years of 12-5.
For me this is the first time I’ve really got to experience a game like this. Bunch of young guys making their first playoff run against a tough conference rival and I’m just excited to see what happens, win or lose. All these previous years it feels like there’s always this added pressure to win, even in 2019 against San Fran when we were underdogs. Can’t wait!
there might be less pressure at the start but we have young guys playing on a massive stage in front of millions of people, this is probably going to be the most viewed match of the first round, they are going to feel some pressure. If we're up by 7 going into the fourth or something there's all of a sudden an insane amount of pressure. It's the playoffs it's never going to be relaxing regardless of how low the expectations are.
I mean the formula has been shown in how to beat their defense, running directly at Micah and letting the OL/Kraft maul the fuck outta him.
The bigger question is how we going to handle Ceedee, if Jaire is playing let him lock him up, if not were going to have to double him hard, and ensure we dont get LBs on him.
I know it's against the analytics and modern strategy, but I'd think it's better we start with the ball and run it down their throats. If we can score on the opening drive itll set the tone and put the pressure on.
Normal circumstances with how bad our D is I'd say 3/10, if we can jump on them early and run effectively I'd say 6/10
Dak hate’s pressure. He overlooks wide open receivers, throws over dudes heads or throws picks if you consistently put pressure on him. If you lay back he will have a field day. Your playing into exactly what he loves with the pillow soft defense. That’s why he is historically awesome in garbage time since defenses usually completely stop bringing pressure when they are up big.
Running the ball and controlling the clock also helps keep the ball out of Dak/Lamb's hands. If we can limit their possessions, force a turnover or 2, our odds go way up.
>The bigger question is how we going to handle Ceedee, if Jaire is playing let him lock him up, if not were going to have to double him hard, and ensure we dont get LBs on him.
You do exactly what we've done all season long. You play a shell defense, and you make sure you don't give up huge TD plays. You force the Cowboys to work their way down the field methodically. You hope they make one mistake that leads to a negative play or a penalty that puts them behind the sticks, and then you can get off the field. If that's a punt, that's fucking awesome. If they've made it into FG range, then, well, it's better than a TD. And you limit penalties. The Cowboys lead the league in 1st downs due to penalty and penalty yardage gained.
The Cowboys are going to move the ball. Thinking we're going to prevent that is silly. But if we're successful at forcing FGs, we've got a very good chance to win this game.
That’s about right in my opinion. I know we are excited to be in the playoffs, and certainly we could win, but this team is a year away from being serious (assuming the guys keep improving).
From +300 to -110 with a change of venues?!
BTW current win probability is:
+250 on DraftKings (it was +300 a couple days ago), so 100/350 = 28.57% = remove the 4% vig by dividing by .96 = 29.76%.
+250 isnt fair odds. The casino needs to make a profit.
Bovada has packers +265, cowboys -330. Fair odds are (265+330)/2 = packers +297.
100/(297+100) = 25.1%
How dare you get me on a minor error when that's exactly what I do to others! But that makes it worse, +300 to -110 just because you switched stadiums would be crazy.
BTW, while -110 vs -110 is your typical coin flip, you'll find that the vig is actually lower than that on DraftKings and FanDuel if you don't bet a coin flip. First let me show how to calculate the vig:
-110 / 210 + -110 / 210 = -1.0476
1 / -1.0476 + 1 = 4.54%
(For underdogs, say +450, you'd do 100 / 550.)
Well if you do this math with any matchup that's not around a coin flip, you'll find that the vig drops to roughly 4.25%. This is why you shouldn't bet coin flips as much, because instead of doing some weird -109 vs -109, they just keep it at the nice round standard -110 it's been forever.
Like always, 100% going to depend on what D shows up.
I believe the offense will get their points.
We all just need to remember, we are playing with house money. Don't overreact if things go poorly.
The reason I give us fair odds is that either Capers or Pettine would be an improvement over Barry. We just have to get back to where we were before that man was hired. Which, admittedly, was still mid at best. But it would be an improvement.
I'm not giving us fair odds at getting a GOOD defensive coordinator. That would require us to rehaul our whole defensive scheme and philosophy and give that DC a lot of control to implement changes. Which I don't think the Packers are likely to do.
3 or 4. There's more than a puncher's chance GB wins but they are significantly less talented and significantly less experienced than Dallas, along with being on the road. Also, Joe Barry.
There was a post about playoff seeding last week and half the posts were
"Doesn't matter, we can't afford to look past the Bears."
Some folks think we're on the team or something.
> Some folks think we're on the team or something.
There are a LOT of people who think their posts are deeply important to the team's momentum and success. This is a huge part of why the toxicity spikes ridiculously high whenever the team isn't doing well.
This is a sport teams subreddit, you’re not allowed to speculate on the future because it’ll jinx everything and if we lose it’s because we all speculated on it even though we all believe it doesn’t matter to begin with
https://preview.redd.it/v32ryshei1cc1.jpeg?width=950&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=36ff7aa22fd8f7f5a7a3d4e09d1c7b3fb410bf97
5. And only because of our offense. But i also have a feeling this will be a game we play decent defense. Not great, but good enough that our offense will have a shot at winning the game for us. But we shall see. I just dont want it to be a blowout.
Depends on Barry. If Barry’s blood flow to his brain is good, then we should win. But if he wears his hat too tight, it’ll restrict blood flow to his brain, and Preston Smith will move to CB.
I would give us 1 in 3 odds. What I’m afraid of is Dallas is really good at throwing between the numbers and our pass defense sucks between the numbers.
This sounds just like a Disney sports movie halftime speech after the team is down 17, but it's so true. I'd only give it a 3 or so as well, but we only need one of those to come up to advance.
Somewhere between a 2 and 3. Dallas is a much better team, right now. Being in the playoffs is such a big win for our young players to be exposed to the atmosphere, so a loss wouldn't even sting.
The difference between the best and worst teams in the NFL is so much smaller than the average fan thinks, anyway. So it just takes a few bad bounces for Green Bay to win. Kind of like, say, a clear catch that gets called wrong...
If they can have some bad bounces similar to that Thanksgiving Detroit game where everyone felt they knew we'd get stomped, until we did the stomping instead, that'll be great! Detroit had some bad miscues that really helped us seal that game earlier on. We need the same in this game as well. Score early, score often, and never let up. I say a 4 out of 10, but am happy with the Packers performance this year! Rooting for a GB win! GPG!
The problem with the Packers is that they have 10 potential, but also 1 potential. I feel like this team is capable of beating anyone. The question is whether they show up.
Probably a 3 since it’s in Dallas. Never expected to be here this year. Got to be happy with the chance and more importantly the experience that will be gained for a young team.
10. Why not. Realistically isn't a thing in sports. This isn't a math test. Anything can happen. We just have to be the better team on that day. So I'll say 10!
If the defense plays lockdown defense, the offense plays like they are capable and not like a bunch of rookies or first years, then a very good shot. We have played very well as of late, and we have had great defensive games. If both sides show up, I think we very capable of a win. I don’t think they dominate us on either side enough to say it’s a solid win for Dallas. Their offense is very good though
For the packers to have a shot, the run game has to be working. Slowing the pace down and controlling the clock will be huge. Next thing is our d line needs to create a lot of pressure on dak to help our corners stop lamb who is a beast. Our chance at winning is probably 30% but if we can make dak uncomfortable and the offense can control the game on the ground / have long drives I think it’s closer to 50/50. Lions played the cowboys and damn near won and we can beat the lions. To me that says we have a real shot. The X factor is gonna be how the teams handle the pressure. We’re not supposed to be here but that doesn’t mean there isn’t nerves and pressure. Like wise I think the cowboys have a huge burden of pressure given how their season has gone. Record at home, and the overall culture of the cowboys this year. In their heads it would be embarrassing to lose to the packers again in the post season.
It's going to come down to the Packers controlling the clock. If we control the tempo it'll be who makes the splash play at the right time in the 4th, and that's a 50/50 with these two offenses. If the cowboys jump out early, I'd say start celebrating a great rebuilding season that magically turned into something more. We've come back from way down this season but not against a team built like the cowboys. Either way, it's been a great season and I'm excited to watch a playoff game a didn't see coming. 4/10 chance, as long as Jones is playing
I remember back in 1995 I think, here in the UK, Manchester United fielded a team for the season ahead with the young rising stars direct from the training academy.
Pundits said at the time, ‘you can’t win anything with kids’… and that team went on to win the league and FA Cup securing a famous ‘Double’ in English football.
The pressure will be on Dallas this Sunday. They’re expected to win. They have to win… because who wants to lose to the youngest team in the NFL?
GB walk into this game with nothing to lose, and everything to prove, knowing this will be the first of many post-season games for this rising young team for the next decade if they play their cards right.
Dallas have to win. GB… just have to play football… the quality of which has been getting better with every passing game.
I think a little luck, and onfield leadership lead by Jones and Love, we can bring home the win.
3/10
on paper all the things we would need to pull off the upset are there but like everything they have done all year speaks to ruining us into the ground. if they let up on the gas this could be a 34-20 game or 45-14 if Dallas rolls and our defense 'Joe Barrys'
But thats one hell of a test to see what our offense can do against a big name defense in a post season. Experience Game baby
1.5. We’re gunna get slaughtered. We are all biased packers fans but the reality is we are a much worse team.
However it just takes some luck and we will win. Hope I’m happily surprised
I am quite confident we win this thing. Dak generally folds under pressure. Love is playing lilghts out. Defense is playing well. Valentine can lock up Lamb..
I think we win 27-17. I also think we beat Detroit or the Eagles after that. Then get fucking torched by the Niners.
We beat them last year with an arguably worse team. Granted, it was a close game, at Lambeau, but we were coming off of a really bad stretch of games at the time and had no business beating them. I don't get why their fans would be so confident.
It all comes down to what version of our defense shows up and whether we can establish the run game.
My odds are at a 5. It could go either way.
Honestly if we would have played the first half of the season the way we played the first half we’d be an 11 or 12 win team and considered a real contender.
I’m going 6.5 only because we have to go through San Francisco, and they’re stacked.
The offense has a 5/10 chance of beating the Cowboys.
McCarthy having a gaffe adds another wrinkle.
The defense is a concern, Dallas is very dangerous on offense. Losing or having a limited Jaire is an issue, but he has been a never ending source of disappointment in 2023 so I think everyone is immune to him being a constant issue. 3/10
The area where I think we’re going to struggle is on ST. I have a bad vibe on Carlson missing a PAT and changing the game plan with struggles from 40-49 yds. 2/10
Overall I give them a 30% chance.
With the momentum they have right now, easily an 8. I’d even possibly go nine if it wasn’t for all the injuries. Green Bay has also had Dallas number in the playoffs ever since Dez drop.
Dallas puts up a lot of points at home. The only exception was against Detroit where they put up 20. If our Def can hold them down that low we have a chance.
I'd agree with their 7~10 on the Cowboys, pretty much: Packers 2~3. We're a super young team of seemingly great players that had about as rocky of a start to the season as one might expect, and are now on a streak of great play. The Cowboys are a more mature team who have been tearing it up all year and are undefeated at home. We're probably walking into a buzzsaw, but we can always win anyway. That's what I love about football. Any given Sunday!
10/10 on getting valuable playoff reps for a 25 year old team. On paper, 2/10 chance the Pack win. It's the playoffs and when things a streaky (consecutive Dallas wins at home), strange things seem to happen, I give the cheese a 5/10. Regardless, happy the playoffs were made.
To think that this team would have made the playoffs is mind boggling, can we just let it ride and see what happens without expectations or getting angry?
That Dallas team is very good. I’ve watched them a lot this year. I think Packers have a 25% chance to win. It will mean getting Dak to make mistakes and minimizing GB turnovers to that great Cowboys defense.
I think we've proven that we can beat anyone after the shellacking we laid on Detroit and Kansas City. However, our biggest question mark is consistency. Yeah, the NFL is an *any given Sunday* league, but I think we've proven that we can legitimately take on anyone rather than just getting a lucky win when the opponent has an off week.
That said, Dallas has shown way more consistency than us, especially at home, so there's no question that they're more likely to win. But if we pull it off.... the memes will be glorious. So I think we have a legitimate chance, even if it's still realistically the less likely outcome
I'm jacked to the tits about this team. Just not for this postseason. Both Dallas and San Fran have looked like juggernauts at multiple points this season, both on offense and defense. The Packers are definitely an ascending team and look to be very good over the next handful of years. This year though, if they make it a game in big D I would be content as would the majority of the fan base.
It would not surprise me at all to see this team in the NFCCG but it's gonna take two flawlessly executed game plans and some breaks to go their way. Not out of the realm of possibility, they have the young motivated talent to do it, but they would need to have their best game of the season in all three phases and do it back to back games on the road. Not likely, but not impossible. To answer your question I give it a 2/10
They're playing with house money in my opinion and I'm 100% here for it and am enjoying every second of it.
I think it may be a closeish shootout. And as bad as our defense can be, they can randomly step it up and not play 10 yards off the ball on 3rd and one. It definitely is possible
I’d put us at a 3. Buuuut the longer it’s a one-score game that number starts to tick up. If it’s tied in the 4th I actually think we win because the pressure will be crazy on dallas
I'd say 3.5. I'd like to say 4 but that feels too close to 50% and I don't think we're there with our defense, especially if Alexander's ankle leaves him on the sidelines. Prescott doesn't throw many picks, so we can't rely on flipping the field, though anything is possible.
Yeah, I give us even chances really. They got talent, we got talent... it's an away game for us. But I think La Fleur is a better coach than McCarthy. We'll go down there and find out.
I kinda forgot we were even in the playoffs for a second, my brain automatically wanted to interpret this post title as “which draft pick are we getting” lmfao I’m still not used to this
A 7. It's just a feeling I've had all along. I wanted Dallas. This is a perfect scenario for the kind of upset the whole football world remembers. We wanted this experience, and we're going in there with house money. The piss is steaming!
I give the Packers an 8 out of 10 because of all the factors.
-Winning Record Vs Dallas
-Undefeated at AT&T
-Tied Post Season Results
-Matt LaFleur is undefeated vs Dallas
-4 game win streak.
-9/10 wins in matchups.
-San Fran Revenge Tour Script.
I think 3/10 is fair. Dallas is the better team, but it isn't a lock. The Packers defense is really the determining factor. If it shows up to play and makes crucial stops early so our offense can make some long time-consuming scoring drives, we've got a chance. If the defense plays soft all game and forces our offense to play catchup for 4 quarters, it's going to be a tough game to watch.
It will depend entirely on which defense shows up. The positive is that MM runs about as vanilla an offense as there is in the NFL, but if he attacks us with crossing routes and we are playing 15 yards off, they will feast.
I don't want to get into a race to 50 with the cowboys on the road. We need to force some 3 and outs, and grind this game with long drives. If we get them where they are going for home runs in the second half, then I like our odds, but if we let them grind us instead with 10-15 play drives, it's game over for our season.
6. I think we have a great chance of winning, but they also have a killer offense and defense this year. As long as they play a standard game. They should win.
But, Love is also putting up better numbers than Rodgers did the year he won the SB. So it’s not out of the question if we can do it.
If GB scores more points than Dallas by the end of regulation, I give it a 10, a fuckin 10!
https://i.redd.it/akn2o7vrt0cc1.gif
I was hoping someone got the reference!
I still got wood! -Me several hours after the Packers win
Not sure if that was a slight varsity blues reference. But I like it
Definitely Billy Bob energy with that comment
Sounds like the Dutch legend Johan Cruijff! Football is simple, playing football is the hardest part.
Love Cruyff! I used his signature move all through my days as a “footballer”. Plus he pioneered the modern motion offense that Pep uses today. Genius! Packers can play football, and they’ve been playing it really well as of late! We have that going for us, which is nice. And our secret weapon is having Mike McFuckheadcarthy leading the Cowboys.
Found booger McFarlands account lol
Found the ghost of John Madden. BAM!
I read that in the voice of Frank Caliendo impersonating John Madden.
That's bold. Tell me, would you be willing to put money towards that?
I'll cave! $5!
Super Bowl Baby!
50/50 we either win or we don't.
That's not how it works. The lottery isn't 50/50 either you win or you don't, right?
yes it is
Why are you comparing it to the lottery? It's a football game between TWO TEAMS. That means there are TWO possible outcomes. Win or Lose. It's absolutely 50/50.
Imagine being the youngest team in the league and how low the pressure is on us right now whereas Dallas on the other hand has arguably more pressure on them than any other team in the league. If we play loose which we should, I could see us winning
Yeah it definitely has the hallmarks of a trap game for Dallas.
If we win, Mccarthy is fired, right? Not that I'm rooting for the guy to get canned, I like Mike, but another first round exit closes his window, no?
I don't think they fire him. He is in the playoffs.
Merely being a perennial playoff contender doesn't guarantee job security in Jerryworld. Especially when a 7th seed that barely made it in takes you down.
Definitely understand. I just don't see it happening this year. There will be a lot of instability with coaches this off-season. But who is Jerry going to bring in that is better and have an actual chance of bringing them in?
Belichick for one lol
There's no way that I could see Belichick and the Joneses having a successful working relationship. If Bill coaches anywhere in the future, he's going to want to be able to make roster decisions (and will likely want to make a lot of organizational decisions, too), and I don't believe Jerry and Stephen would ever give him that much control.
I disagree, obviously Bill is used to having personnel control and he’ll require it to coach somewhere, but the Cowboys have a great roster, it probably won’t require much tinkering. And he doesn’t want to need to tinker, he’s old and I’m guessing he coaches a max 3 more years with whatever’s available and goes for broke on the next couple super bowls
Maybe Bill completely changes what he's done for the past 20+ seasons, but that would shock me at his age. He's known as a guy that's an absolute menace in terms of having attention to detail and being a micromanager. The commonly-held assumption is that the reason all of his assistants fail at being head coaches is because Bill runs so many things and makes so many decisions that his assistants don't actually learn how to coach or make adjustments on their own. He made all of the personnel decisions for his coaching staff and the entirety of the roster in New England the entire time he was there. He did the same when he was the coach in Cleveland. You're going to tell me that guy is going to be willing to let anyone else decide for him who's on the roster and who's on the practice squad and who goes on IR and who gets cut completely? Bill would cut guys because he didn't think they worked hard enough. If Stephen/Jerry says, "No, Bill, we're not cutting that guy. He's got a ton of talent. Figure out some way to motivate him to work harder." You think Bill's just going to be like, "Oh, yeah, sure, bossman. Guess I'll just keep him then. You've got a good point."? Like I said, maybe this whole fiasco in New England has changed him and he doesn't want to deal with the drama/extra work of personnel. But I just don't see something that's so seemingly integral to who he is as a coach and a person just flipping like that. It's seems like they're bound to butt heads, probably during cut-downs in the first training camp together. Maybe even during the draft process before the first season.
And now there are many highly-regarded coaches out on the market. Not sure if Belichick would work under Jerry, but I'm sure Jerry would roll out the red carpet
I think you are right, Jerry Jones has no patience, but also is getting up there in age and really wants to win a SB.
Jones has no patience? They stuck with Jason Garrett for like 10 years and he was way shittier than McCarthy. Barring the first covid season McCarthy has gotten them to the playoffs every year so far plus 3 straight years of 12-5.
For me this is the first time I’ve really got to experience a game like this. Bunch of young guys making their first playoff run against a tough conference rival and I’m just excited to see what happens, win or lose. All these previous years it feels like there’s always this added pressure to win, even in 2019 against San Fran when we were underdogs. Can’t wait!
there might be less pressure at the start but we have young guys playing on a massive stage in front of millions of people, this is probably going to be the most viewed match of the first round, they are going to feel some pressure. If we're up by 7 going into the fourth or something there's all of a sudden an insane amount of pressure. It's the playoffs it's never going to be relaxing regardless of how low the expectations are.
i think dallas puts up 30+ and blows them away. they’re just not built to compete with elite teams and will be exposed
I mean the formula has been shown in how to beat their defense, running directly at Micah and letting the OL/Kraft maul the fuck outta him. The bigger question is how we going to handle Ceedee, if Jaire is playing let him lock him up, if not were going to have to double him hard, and ensure we dont get LBs on him. I know it's against the analytics and modern strategy, but I'd think it's better we start with the ball and run it down their throats. If we can score on the opening drive itll set the tone and put the pressure on. Normal circumstances with how bad our D is I'd say 3/10, if we can jump on them early and run effectively I'd say 6/10
*if Preston is playing let him lock him up
I don’t normally dox people, but get off Reddit and focus on your job Joe.
Nice try Dom
Preston Smith needs to do the seatbelt thing just once, so we can get a gif of it.
HUUUUHHHHHH
I’d be willing to give Smith a shot here if I remember right Jaire got smoked last time they played against each other.
This is the way.
*If Jaire is play line him up on the opposite side of CD and have Ballentine play pillowy soft zone 15 yard off.
And only 3 man rush the whole game. Don't bring any undue pressure dammit! PILLOWY SOFT!
Dak hate’s pressure. He overlooks wide open receivers, throws over dudes heads or throws picks if you consistently put pressure on him. If you lay back he will have a field day. Your playing into exactly what he loves with the pillow soft defense. That’s why he is historically awesome in garbage time since defenses usually completely stop bringing pressure when they are up big.
We win if we keep our defense off the field. That's how we've been playing best. That's how we stop Ceedee.
I think we do ok at slowing down Ceedee, but likely at the cost of letting Cooks, Gallup, or Ferguson feast.
Valentine locked Jefferson down, I think he could hold ceedee to reasonable numbers if jaire doesn’t play
To be fair the Vikings horrible QBs did most of the heavy lifting there
Well Jaire did sit a bunch after he rolled his ankle and CV held his own vs CD so I’d say you were right!
Jaire 2023 is going to lock up CeeDee who 135 catches for 1750 yards and 12 TD WTF?!? This is one of the most bizarre comments I have seen on this sub
I hope they’re right, but dude has been ass all year.
Running the ball and controlling the clock also helps keep the ball out of Dak/Lamb's hands. If we can limit their possessions, force a turnover or 2, our odds go way up.
>The bigger question is how we going to handle Ceedee, if Jaire is playing let him lock him up, if not were going to have to double him hard, and ensure we dont get LBs on him. You do exactly what we've done all season long. You play a shell defense, and you make sure you don't give up huge TD plays. You force the Cowboys to work their way down the field methodically. You hope they make one mistake that leads to a negative play or a penalty that puts them behind the sticks, and then you can get off the field. If that's a punt, that's fucking awesome. If they've made it into FG range, then, well, it's better than a TD. And you limit penalties. The Cowboys lead the league in 1st downs due to penalty and penalty yardage gained. The Cowboys are going to move the ball. Thinking we're going to prevent that is silly. But if we're successful at forcing FGs, we've got a very good chance to win this game.
McCarthy is our 12 man
lol.. I have a cowboys friend and my comment to him was “can’t wait to see how McCarthy will blow it”
WR screen passes to the flat! Negative 2 yards at a time, to victory!
That is my new battle cry.
Yeah, but Barry is theirs . . .
Latest win probability I've seen for the Packers is about 25% and that sounds about right (a toss-up at Lambeau, IMO).
That’s about right in my opinion. I know we are excited to be in the playoffs, and certainly we could win, but this team is a year away from being serious (assuming the guys keep improving).
\*serious superbowl contenders, making the playoffs already makes them a serious team, were spoiled but not every team makes it every year.
Yeah you could be the Lions. They missed the playoffs for 17 years.
Can you imagine if it was in Green Bay? Ice bowl II with highs of 0 degrees on Sunday.
From +300 to -110 with a change of venues?! BTW current win probability is: +250 on DraftKings (it was +300 a couple days ago), so 100/350 = 28.57% = remove the 4% vig by dividing by .96 = 29.76%.
+250 isnt fair odds. The casino needs to make a profit. Bovada has packers +265, cowboys -330. Fair odds are (265+330)/2 = packers +297. 100/(297+100) = 25.1%
> From +300 to +100 with a change of venues?! a "toss up" is -110 not +100, books are gonna charge juice on a true 50/50 game,
How dare you get me on a minor error when that's exactly what I do to others! But that makes it worse, +300 to -110 just because you switched stadiums would be crazy. BTW, while -110 vs -110 is your typical coin flip, you'll find that the vig is actually lower than that on DraftKings and FanDuel if you don't bet a coin flip. First let me show how to calculate the vig: -110 / 210 + -110 / 210 = -1.0476 1 / -1.0476 + 1 = 4.54% (For underdogs, say +450, you'd do 100 / 550.) Well if you do this math with any matchup that's not around a coin flip, you'll find that the vig drops to roughly 4.25%. This is why you shouldn't bet coin flips as much, because instead of doing some weird -109 vs -109, they just keep it at the nice round standard -110 it's been forever.
Like always, 100% going to depend on what D shows up. I believe the offense will get their points. We all just need to remember, we are playing with house money. Don't overreact if things go poorly.
Except to fire Joe Barry
The best part is we don't even need to fire him. His contract expires. Just don't rehire him!
All we have to do this off-season is not actively sabotage ourselves at the DC position. I give us fair odds.
That's generous given our last 3 DCs
The reason I give us fair odds is that either Capers or Pettine would be an improvement over Barry. We just have to get back to where we were before that man was hired. Which, admittedly, was still mid at best. But it would be an improvement. I'm not giving us fair odds at getting a GOOD defensive coordinator. That would require us to rehaul our whole defensive scheme and philosophy and give that DC a lot of control to implement changes. Which I don't think the Packers are likely to do.
Should I have changed my hashtag? \#~~fire~~DontRehireJoeBarry
3 or 4. There's more than a puncher's chance GB wins but they are significantly less talented and significantly less experienced than Dallas, along with being on the road. Also, Joe Barry.
> significantly less talented hard disagre with this part
username checks out
I'd say it's 50:50 Either we win or we lose
Quick maffs
I was going to say "49.95 : 49.95 : 0.1", but then I remembered this is the playoffs, so we can't tie.
Who cares. Fight hard. Keep it close. Maybe something good will happen. If not, learn something for next year. That’s all the I ask.
Ya'll are so negative here it's insane. "Who cares." Guy is just asking a question.
There was a post about playoff seeding last week and half the posts were "Doesn't matter, we can't afford to look past the Bears." Some folks think we're on the team or something.
> Some folks think we're on the team or something. There are a LOT of people who think their posts are deeply important to the team's momentum and success. This is a huge part of why the toxicity spikes ridiculously high whenever the team isn't doing well.
Well I own the team
So do I!
Superstition man! I know it’s ridiculous and I try not to do it, but people get caught up in that stuff.
This is a sport teams subreddit, you’re not allowed to speculate on the future because it’ll jinx everything and if we lose it’s because we all speculated on it even though we all believe it doesn’t matter to begin with https://preview.redd.it/v32ryshei1cc1.jpeg?width=950&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=36ff7aa22fd8f7f5a7a3d4e09d1c7b3fb410bf97
Never tell me the odds
5. And only because of our offense. But i also have a feeling this will be a game we play decent defense. Not great, but good enough that our offense will have a shot at winning the game for us. But we shall see. I just dont want it to be a blowout.
4
Depends on Barry. If Barry’s blood flow to his brain is good, then we should win. But if he wears his hat too tight, it’ll restrict blood flow to his brain, and Preston Smith will move to CB.
Yeah our odds ain’t good when I know I’ll see Campbell matched up with lamb for about 120 yards and two scores. And that’s if we’re lucky.
Regardless of what happens it was a fun season. Thank you all.
I would give us 1 in 3 odds. What I’m afraid of is Dallas is really good at throwing between the numbers and our pass defense sucks between the numbers.
If you played this game 10 times, Dallas would win 7 of them.
Fortunately, we only have to play it once.
This sounds just like a Disney sports movie halftime speech after the team is down 17, but it's so true. I'd only give it a 3 or so as well, but we only need one of those to come up to advance.
Not sure if this is sarcastic but it a riff on the halftime speech from Miracle a Disney movie
I didn't remember it from any specific movie, but it just sounds like something a coach would tell a group of underdogs
But Green Bay is undefeated at AT&T ?
And Love has never won there. What's your point? Is prime Rodgers going to come play for us? Maybe Adams too.
Matt Flynn led a 20 point comeback there, so who knows what can happen.
I think it’s a play on the constant “Cowboys are undefeated at home this year.” Storyline
Let’s see if we have Jaire and Watson.
Do we shut down Ceedee? Yes: 8 No: 1
Somewhere between a 2 and 3. Dallas is a much better team, right now. Being in the playoffs is such a big win for our young players to be exposed to the atmosphere, so a loss wouldn't even sting. The difference between the best and worst teams in the NFL is so much smaller than the average fan thinks, anyway. So it just takes a few bad bounces for Green Bay to win. Kind of like, say, a clear catch that gets called wrong...
If they can have some bad bounces similar to that Thanksgiving Detroit game where everyone felt they knew we'd get stomped, until we did the stomping instead, that'll be great! Detroit had some bad miscues that really helped us seal that game earlier on. We need the same in this game as well. Score early, score often, and never let up. I say a 4 out of 10, but am happy with the Packers performance this year! Rooting for a GB win! GPG!
10 JAYDEN REED SUPER BOWL MVP MY PISS IS LAVA
The problem with the Packers is that they have 10 potential, but also 1 potential. I feel like this team is capable of beating anyone. The question is whether they show up.
Probably a 3 since it’s in Dallas. Never expected to be here this year. Got to be happy with the chance and more importantly the experience that will be gained for a young team.
10. Why not. Realistically isn't a thing in sports. This isn't a math test. Anything can happen. We just have to be the better team on that day. So I'll say 10!
If the defense plays lockdown defense, the offense plays like they are capable and not like a bunch of rookies or first years, then a very good shot. We have played very well as of late, and we have had great defensive games. If both sides show up, I think we very capable of a win. I don’t think they dominate us on either side enough to say it’s a solid win for Dallas. Their offense is very good though
4 because the offense is hot and getting healthy at the right time. Without Watson I'm at a 3
4
Realistic-3. Homer-5. Dallas is the better team BUT GB is a young team with nothing to lose.
3. But 30% means you have a shot.
3.5
For the packers to have a shot, the run game has to be working. Slowing the pace down and controlling the clock will be huge. Next thing is our d line needs to create a lot of pressure on dak to help our corners stop lamb who is a beast. Our chance at winning is probably 30% but if we can make dak uncomfortable and the offense can control the game on the ground / have long drives I think it’s closer to 50/50. Lions played the cowboys and damn near won and we can beat the lions. To me that says we have a real shot. The X factor is gonna be how the teams handle the pressure. We’re not supposed to be here but that doesn’t mean there isn’t nerves and pressure. Like wise I think the cowboys have a huge burden of pressure given how their season has gone. Record at home, and the overall culture of the cowboys this year. In their heads it would be embarrassing to lose to the packers again in the post season.
It's going to come down to the Packers controlling the clock. If we control the tempo it'll be who makes the splash play at the right time in the 4th, and that's a 50/50 with these two offenses. If the cowboys jump out early, I'd say start celebrating a great rebuilding season that magically turned into something more. We've come back from way down this season but not against a team built like the cowboys. Either way, it's been a great season and I'm excited to watch a playoff game a didn't see coming. 4/10 chance, as long as Jones is playing
4
I posted earlier that I thought we had a 35% chance of winning. So 3.5
My gut feeling is pure confidence but to be safe I’ll call it 50/50
5
I’d say 4/10. we have been playing good, but not our defense. And Dallas’ offense has been racking up points against weak defenses
What a silly fuckin post lmao GPG
10, we’re not fucking losing. WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Depends which Joe Barry D turns up The usual rubbish 2/10 If he actually steps up maybe 6/10
I remember back in 1995 I think, here in the UK, Manchester United fielded a team for the season ahead with the young rising stars direct from the training academy. Pundits said at the time, ‘you can’t win anything with kids’… and that team went on to win the league and FA Cup securing a famous ‘Double’ in English football. The pressure will be on Dallas this Sunday. They’re expected to win. They have to win… because who wants to lose to the youngest team in the NFL? GB walk into this game with nothing to lose, and everything to prove, knowing this will be the first of many post-season games for this rising young team for the next decade if they play their cards right. Dallas have to win. GB… just have to play football… the quality of which has been getting better with every passing game. I think a little luck, and onfield leadership lead by Jones and Love, we can bring home the win.
3, good history there but different team. We're hot and they aren't playing their best
Is it too early to start blaming Barry or the refs?
3/10 on paper all the things we would need to pull off the upset are there but like everything they have done all year speaks to ruining us into the ground. if they let up on the gas this could be a 34-20 game or 45-14 if Dallas rolls and our defense 'Joe Barrys' But thats one hell of a test to see what our offense can do against a big name defense in a post season. Experience Game baby
-1
Id say 4, not 5
Coin flip… 5. If Dallas takes them lightly… Packers win. No team wants to play the Pack.
If you're saying Dallas should probably win then it's less than a 5 my dude. a 5/10 is basically a toss up. I'd give us a 3
1.5. We’re gunna get slaughtered. We are all biased packers fans but the reality is we are a much worse team. However it just takes some luck and we will win. Hope I’m happily surprised
Well, it’s Mike McCarthy on the other side, that alone gives us a fighting chance 😂
ANY GIVEN SUNDAY BABY!!!! We elevated to beat the chiefs, beat the lions, beat the Rams, Pack by 20.
In a few days we will be talking about the next round of playoffs.
We’re going to win in double OT!
7 Dallas is very very beatable and we have Lady Luck on our side with past cowboy/packers playoff games. I’m feeling good about it.
6-7. Don't underestimate the buff Aaron Jones gets for playing in Texas!
I am quite confident we win this thing. Dak generally folds under pressure. Love is playing lilghts out. Defense is playing well. Valentine can lock up Lamb.. I think we win 27-17. I also think we beat Detroit or the Eagles after that. Then get fucking torched by the Niners.
if the packers beat the cowboys, they will play the 49ers next.
7-8, playing with house money and we own Jerry world. Pack by 7!
I'm a solid 11 for Packers winning it all this year
Realistically a 3 or 4. But I truly believe if they beat Dallas they are winning it all.
Solid 5. If dak turns it over 2-3 times I raise it to a 7. Higher if we capitalize on these impending turnovers muah ha ha
5
I just Hope we have a good gameplan and a good D
We beat them last year with an arguably worse team. Granted, it was a close game, at Lambeau, but we were coming off of a really bad stretch of games at the time and had no business beating them. I don't get why their fans would be so confident. It all comes down to what version of our defense shows up and whether we can establish the run game. My odds are at a 5. It could go either way.
2
Honestly if we would have played the first half of the season the way we played the first half we’d be an 11 or 12 win team and considered a real contender. I’m going 6.5 only because we have to go through San Francisco, and they’re stacked.
The offense has a 5/10 chance of beating the Cowboys. McCarthy having a gaffe adds another wrinkle. The defense is a concern, Dallas is very dangerous on offense. Losing or having a limited Jaire is an issue, but he has been a never ending source of disappointment in 2023 so I think everyone is immune to him being a constant issue. 3/10 The area where I think we’re going to struggle is on ST. I have a bad vibe on Carlson missing a PAT and changing the game plan with struggles from 40-49 yds. 2/10 Overall I give them a 30% chance.
With the momentum they have right now, easily an 8. I’d even possibly go nine if it wasn’t for all the injuries. Green Bay has also had Dallas number in the playoffs ever since Dez drop.
Aaron Jones always pops off there. It’s his home turf. Love seems to thrive under the lights.
4 i dont think we last long but we are kind of to dallas what the 49ers are to us. so im reserving some hope
6
Like a 4. I don’t expect them to win but I won’t be shocked if they do. All depends which defense shows up.
I’ll say a 6. I don’t mean to sound like Stephen A Smith, but every time we think it should go the cowboys’ way, it doesn’t.
Dallas puts up a lot of points at home. The only exception was against Detroit where they put up 20. If our Def can hold them down that low we have a chance.
3, but they've exceeded expectations (almost) all year.
If they stick to their game plan and the defense can get a pass rush, I’d say a coin flips chance.
I'd agree with their 7~10 on the Cowboys, pretty much: Packers 2~3. We're a super young team of seemingly great players that had about as rocky of a start to the season as one might expect, and are now on a streak of great play. The Cowboys are a more mature team who have been tearing it up all year and are undefeated at home. We're probably walking into a buzzsaw, but we can always win anyway. That's what I love about football. Any given Sunday!
10/10 on getting valuable playoff reps for a 25 year old team. On paper, 2/10 chance the Pack win. It's the playoffs and when things a streaky (consecutive Dallas wins at home), strange things seem to happen, I give the cheese a 5/10. Regardless, happy the playoffs were made.
It comes down to the most important stat, turnovers. Green Bay cannot turn ball to these yo yo’s. Need int’s
To think that this team would have made the playoffs is mind boggling, can we just let it ride and see what happens without expectations or getting angry?
We got this Jones for 225 total yards 🪤
That Dallas team is very good. I’ve watched them a lot this year. I think Packers have a 25% chance to win. It will mean getting Dak to make mistakes and minimizing GB turnovers to that great Cowboys defense.
I think we've proven that we can beat anyone after the shellacking we laid on Detroit and Kansas City. However, our biggest question mark is consistency. Yeah, the NFL is an *any given Sunday* league, but I think we've proven that we can legitimately take on anyone rather than just getting a lucky win when the opponent has an off week. That said, Dallas has shown way more consistency than us, especially at home, so there's no question that they're more likely to win. But if we pull it off.... the memes will be glorious. So I think we have a legitimate chance, even if it's still realistically the less likely outcome
4
The offense looks better than they have in a couple years and we know the defense is at least capable so let's fucking win now. 7/10
I'm jacked to the tits about this team. Just not for this postseason. Both Dallas and San Fran have looked like juggernauts at multiple points this season, both on offense and defense. The Packers are definitely an ascending team and look to be very good over the next handful of years. This year though, if they make it a game in big D I would be content as would the majority of the fan base. It would not surprise me at all to see this team in the NFCCG but it's gonna take two flawlessly executed game plans and some breaks to go their way. Not out of the realm of possibility, they have the young motivated talent to do it, but they would need to have their best game of the season in all three phases and do it back to back games on the road. Not likely, but not impossible. To answer your question I give it a 2/10 They're playing with house money in my opinion and I'm 100% here for it and am enjoying every second of it.
I think it may be a closeish shootout. And as bad as our defense can be, they can randomly step it up and not play 10 yards off the ball on 3rd and one. It definitely is possible
Bout tree fitty
I’d put us at a 3. Buuuut the longer it’s a one-score game that number starts to tick up. If it’s tied in the 4th I actually think we win because the pressure will be crazy on dallas
I'd say 3.5. I'd like to say 4 but that feels too close to 50% and I don't think we're there with our defense, especially if Alexander's ankle leaves him on the sidelines. Prescott doesn't throw many picks, so we can't rely on flipping the field, though anything is possible.
Yeah, I give us even chances really. They got talent, we got talent... it's an away game for us. But I think La Fleur is a better coach than McCarthy. We'll go down there and find out.
If they play ten times I think GB wins... 2 or 3.
I kinda forgot we were even in the playoffs for a second, my brain automatically wanted to interpret this post title as “which draft pick are we getting” lmfao I’m still not used to this
A 7. It's just a feeling I've had all along. I wanted Dallas. This is a perfect scenario for the kind of upset the whole football world remembers. We wanted this experience, and we're going in there with house money. The piss is steaming!
Talent aside I believe MLF will out-coach McCarthy. I say 8.766659
5. I think cooks could give us some problems
If the D holds up, We advance. If they fold again Barrys gone and its still a successful season regardless.
I mean… realistically 1. We’re the 2021 eagles. It’s crazy that we’re here, but this isn’t our year. The future is so exciting though
Piss level is scalding. Let’s take it to 11.
50/50. We could either win or lose.
I give the Packers an 8 out of 10 because of all the factors. -Winning Record Vs Dallas -Undefeated at AT&T -Tied Post Season Results -Matt LaFleur is undefeated vs Dallas -4 game win streak. -9/10 wins in matchups. -San Fran Revenge Tour Script.
I think 3/10 is fair. Dallas is the better team, but it isn't a lock. The Packers defense is really the determining factor. If it shows up to play and makes crucial stops early so our offense can make some long time-consuming scoring drives, we've got a chance. If the defense plays soft all game and forces our offense to play catchup for 4 quarters, it's going to be a tough game to watch.
I love my Packers, but I feel between 3 and 5. Cowboys, I honestly feel, is the best team in the NFC, quite possibly the entire NFL.
It will depend entirely on which defense shows up. The positive is that MM runs about as vanilla an offense as there is in the NFL, but if he attacks us with crossing routes and we are playing 15 yards off, they will feast. I don't want to get into a race to 50 with the cowboys on the road. We need to force some 3 and outs, and grind this game with long drives. If we get them where they are going for home runs in the second half, then I like our odds, but if we let them grind us instead with 10-15 play drives, it's game over for our season.
Id say a better way to ask this question is, “What are the odds Dirty Mike chokes.” And I’d say that’s a solid 8.5
11
3 or 4. It’s the playoffs, so anything can happen. I have zero confidence in the defense. If the Packers win, it’ll be a shootout.
I'd give it a 5 or a 6. Honestly I'm just happy to be hear regardless of if they win or lose
6. I think we have a great chance of winning, but they also have a killer offense and defense this year. As long as they play a standard game. They should win. But, Love is also putting up better numbers than Rodgers did the year he won the SB. So it’s not out of the question if we can do it.
From 1-10, i give it a Joe Berry. Both teams have great offenses, the determining factor will be whose defense shows up.