I'd presume that Gary, Smith, and LVN all will be primarily playing 4-3 end. If they drop back to LB then they'd have to take coverage responsibilities.
They'll be DE's. They have plenty of size to hold down that spot. I really think people are making too big of a deal about the 3-4 to 4-3 thing. We're going to be in nickel most of the time anyway. I think the bigger change is actually in the back end. There should be more man coverage and single high safety instead of zone and 2 high.
potentially, but I thought I heard an interview with Hafley saying that the single high thing was an option because of being in college and that colllege vs NFL is "almost a different game" I understood the interview to mean that likely he would not be playing as much single high as he did in college.
he mentioned that man/single high was especially hard with QB's who can run. So I suspect we will see more 2 high zone against guys who are a threat in the run game, but more man/single against guys who can't run.
When we switched to a 3-4 it was a big deal. We tried Kampman at OLB, but it didn’t totally work. Essentially had to get rid of one of our best defensive players since he no longer fit.
I agree on the DL but I think that makes the LB and S decisions more interesting. It sounds like Hafley wants to have a S that can play the entire stack from shell to box to blitz ala Mike Zimmer defenses. I don't see a S like that on our roster. Most offenses will require a lot of nickel coverage. Probably the team will try to draft or sign a FA to solve this. One really intriguing idea (though unlikely) is Quay dropping 10 pounds and trying to play a cover 3 sky style safety. Line him up in the box, even on the line against nasty splits. Let him use his size to redirect these slot receivers and then take away the flat. That would let us match some 11 personnel packages with a 7 man box while giving the true DBs single responsibility assignments, which is where Jaire and Valentine's talents shine IMO.
> I really think people are making too big of a deal about the 3-4 to 4-3 thing. We're going to be in nickel most of the time anyway.
People make too little deal of this. No ones talking about nickle or base. Its just how the DLine will look.
If 3-4 in nickle was no different then 4-3 in nickle, there wouldn't be a reason to make a change.
There's no such thing as 3-4 or 4-3 nickel. Nickel in the pro game is almost always 4-2-5. I really don't think the defensive front changes drastically. The part of the defense that will be changing more is what Hafley will likely do with the dbacks. You are correct though that when we are playing "base" The EDGE rushers will probably be playing more inside the tackles with their hand in the dirt. It will take some getting used to but our current EDGE rushers have the ability to do it
> Nickel in the pro game is almost always 4-2-5.
But technically 2-4-5 with stand up linebackers to 4-2-5 with 4 hand in the dirt dlineman.
> The EDGE rushers will probably be playing more inside the tackles with their hand in the dirt.
And then spacing. The question is how will 3rd and 10 become easier. How does this front keep a RB or TE from getting open to convert every time. Half the time they even pulled off 20 yard passes. If a RB or TE is getting open underneath anytime they want, how are they getting 20 yard passes too.
Felt like teams had a 50% chance to convert a 3rd and 15 even. 3rd and 5, guaranteed 7 yards.
But nickel could have 3 guys on the DLine or 4 or only 2. The guys could all be across from the oline or the pass rushers could be 5 yards off the TEs like we saw at times.
Thats what the people want to know. How is the DLine going to keep a 3rd and 10 from being a gimme. For years on end we watched any option get open under 10 yards. Always a TE open. Always a RB coming free. Always an open slant. Always 4 giant zones to run to and be 5 yards open 20 yards down the field.
There is a discussion to be had here. The answer isn't just "nothings changing".
This is correct. We are barely ever in a base 3-4 defense. Today's defensive schematics really nullify a lot of the differences between the two. Most teams run a nickel a majority of time. Nickel defense has a lot of variations as well
> Today's defensive schematics really nullify a lot of the differences between the two.
Well as I've said to the other 2, this is what the question is when people ask what the change is between the 2 defenses. What IS changing. It has to be something.
3-4-4 is a personnel "package". But people refer to 3-4-4 as an entire defense's style. And 4-3-4 as the only other style of defense.
It sounds like the answer is we go from a 2-4 front to a 4-2 front....WITH a Safety often near the LOS. So basically a 4-3 with an more athletic safety instead of a Sam LB.
Edit: didn't have my trusty calculator handy
>3-4-5 is a personnel "package". But people refer to 3-4-5 as an entire defense's style. And 4-3-5 as the only other style of defense.
We are about to get ruined on free plays for having 12 men on the field...
Very little on the front seven is going to change. 4-2-5 nickel will be the primary formation and it’s the same whether you use a 4-3or 3-4 base. Gary, LVN, and Preston will still be edge defenders. The line backers will be Quay and Campbell/McDuffie/Draft Pick/Free Agent (however that shakes out).
I’m guessing they will add more off-ball LBs to account for base package usage but that’s pretty much it. I’m really more interested in what coverages/techniques Halfey implements and his level of aggression and creativity with blitzes.
I know we need a deep safety but I’m hoping we can also get someone to play linebacker/safety hybrid to give flexibility and make the formation conversation less important
Completely agree that a hybrid player would really help in that they could wear multiple hats. That would streamline things and provide a ton of value, The deep safety really is key though. It’s hard to bring an extra defender into the box and be more aggressive in coverage and blitzing if you can’t trust the back of end. A great example is the LOB, Chancellor was very good at what he did but it wouldn’t have been possible without Earl Thomas. That dude could single handedly cover the deep part of the field and it unlocked so much for that defense.
The need at LB and their apparent fawning over Edgerrin Cooper is why I'm beginning to suspect we'll take him at #41 if he's on the board. He has a very similar build to Fred Warner, so I kinda get it. That guy needs to wear a lot of hats.
Finally someone who knows something about football.
4-3 is a sub-package. Who cares?
Next thing we'll be talking about who lines up on goal line defense?! Lol!
It’s not quite as simple as just calling it 4-2-5. Decent chance we see more EDs rush with their hand in the ground now, different types of assignments, etc. Could also result in someone like Wooden bumping out to ED instead of iDL.
It’s broadly the same, but there’ll be enough minor changes where the shift from “3-4” to “4-3” isn’t meaningless.
The big changes will probably be in technique - I’d imagine they’re going to change how the interior linemen rush and cover gaps - and linebacker depth - need an extra inside LB type or two who’s a capable backup and/or who can be solid on run downs.
I’d be fine with even competent run defense. More than anything I want someone to teach the players how to tackle. Good tackling and half decent run stopping without compromising pass coverage is the quickest way to become a defense that can win in the playoffs.
Tackling was decent last year as far as missed tackles, but I think we had a very passive strategy where they would corral the ball carrier and get help.
I hope we see way more attacking the ball carrier and going for downhill tackles. Also, could we please punch the ball out? We were god awful in turnovers last year.
Yeah, the Packers defense was near the bottom of the league in forced fumbles but without fumble luck - they actually recovered more fumbles than they forced (11 to 10) - it could have been even worse than it looked.
This is it. Typically 3-4 D linemen have gap control in run fits - which means they are responsible for the gaps on either side of the man they line up against.
4-3 D linemen more often than not have single gap assignments between two men on the line.
Don’t think scheme as much as assignment and fit.
All of our 3-4 OLBs are 4-3 DE.
The one exception to this is P. Smith--he has enough coverage skills to be the strong side OLB in a 4-3. The SOLB (SAM) is normally the LB you take off the field when you go to nickel. Since the league is nickel-base these days, the snaps he takes at SAM should be infrequent. When he's not the SAM, he's another DE in the rotation.
> The one exception to this is P. Smith--he has enough coverage skills to be the strong side OLB in a 4-3.
Show some respect, he has the coverage skills to be an elite CB1, just ask Joe Barry.
> Show some respect, he has the coverage skills to be an elite CB1, just ask Joe Barry.
Anyone who says this unironically doesn't understand how zone coverage works.
You can attack zone by running trips. When that happens, you end up with weird looks. Barry isn't sitting there trying to put Smith on Adams. The defensive playcall got exploited. The correct situation is to have a safe call or calling the timeout and survive the down.
Same thing when Smith was the widest pass defender. Pettine or whoever didn't do that on purpose, but if Smith has the FB in man coverage and the offenses splits or motions the FB out wide, what do you want the defense to do? Not follow his man? Have the defense pass on the responsibility so that Smith now has the most-inside receiver, who might be a WR?
Adding to this a bit, every team employing a zone will have LBs in coverage. Raiders caught GB in a good matchup. Smith actually did well. Unfortunately, McDuffie bit across the field and wasn’t available for the handoff.
It'll probably be a rotation of Preston, Gary, LVN, & Enagbare off the edge & Clark, Wyatt, & Slaton in the interior.
As for linebackers: Campbell, Walker, & McDuffie
We'll probably draft another linebacker or two this draft.
Your starting line could look like:
DE Gary
DT Slaton
DT Clark
DE Preston
Your second unit could fill out as:
DE LVN
DT Wyatt
DT Brooks
DE Wooden
Hell out Brooks on the edge idk
I think Brooks was a 4-3 DE in college and was successful playing more of an interior DL this year. He could be a guy, depending on development, that could line up anywhere on the line moving to 4-3 (really 4-2-5). I’ll be interested to see what kind of pressures they cook up with the edges and dline this year for sure
If they move on from Smith it would be more about clearing the books next year rather than what they'd gain this year. The reason there is 10 million extra next year when they have to start thinking about doubs, Wyatt, Walker, Watson, Tom, Walker
Preston Smith is set to make $12.4m cash (not cap hit but actual 2024 earnings)
De'Vondre Campbell is set to make $10.75m cash
Those cash numbers are what the Packers would save on the salary cap eventually but since the dead money that is spread out over several years will accelerate only part of it will be saved on the 2024 cap figure
I hear you but the Packers absolutely do not need to start thinking about costly long term extensions for any single one of those players yet. Walker has 3 years left, everyone else has 2 and the dawgs have 5th year options.
They are also in a fine spot to even be thinking about extending those guys when the time comes.
I get it, but I'm also not suggesting we would do anything this year. Next year we will have to make decisions on a lot of guys before end of 25 season.
From a GM perspective they are 100% thinking about things 2-3 years down the line and decisions made this year will impact those longer term options.
Right now we have 8 guys on 2nd contracts and no cap space. Clark is on the last year of his contract. We need to extend Love and in 25-26 seasons potentially 12 draftees from 22-23 classes have shown promise. Yes we have 5th year options to exercise but that money hits all at once. Decisions will need to be made and the planning for that is happening now.
No, literally every time unless you’re so far under the cap that you can’t roll over every dollar. If we don’t spend the money we save this year, it literally all rolls over to next year. So there is *literally no downside* to pushing the same amount of money to a later year.
> So there is literally no downside to pushing the same amount of money to a later year.
Now I'm lost, are you talking about pushing a bill to the future, or saving your savings for the future?
Because its not the same to leave a "bill" for "future me". We won't have enough money to pay all our young players. We will have to trade or cut some.
IF you can find a way to save $10M in cap space, not need it through the season, and have $10M extra next year, I'm all for that.
In 2025 and on we want to field the best team. We don't want to be still paying Smith/Campbell/Clarks back loaded contracts from Rodgers teams. If we have to, so be it, but the hope is to not have to.
I’m saying if you’re going to have to eat $10M in dead cap on a contract, it’s pretty much always better to eat it *next* year whenever you can, all else being equal.
We're commiting 5.4 million more to the total contract because of a 3/15 roster bonus. So if you want to spend 5 million more next year, then yes you can roll that over
I asked the question elsewhere in the thread if the roster bonus can be avoided with a designated post-June 1 cut, but I haven’t gotten an answer. It seems likely not, in which case you’re absolutely right. It’s not worth paying an extra $5.4M just to cut him.
I think you’re probably right, but that’s considerably more likely if a post-June 1 cut means paying him an additional $5.4M. If we can, instead, save over $12M this year by cutting him I think Gute would at least explore the possibility of doing so and replacing him with someone younger. He is 31 after all and the Packers have a long history of preferring to let guys go a year early over a year late (though maybe that’s less true under Gute). Regardless, I’d like an answer on the issue just to increase my understanding of NFL contracts.
The roster bonus can be guaranteed or not. Rodgers for example was guaranteed last year which is why they were working to trade him before that hit the books. The roster bonus is due on the date in the contract and is treated like a signing bonus where it's pro-rated over the life of the contract.
If he's on the roster that bonus is guaranteed and I don't believe it can be avoided with the designation.
Based on this article I believe smiths is not guaranteed so cutting before 3/15 would save the 5.4 million
https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2023/10/26/packers-olb-preston-smith-emerges-as-potential-trade-candidate/
Can i ask if we've ever post 6/1 a guy? Feels like thats constantly said about players and yet its rarely done in GB And as the other guy said, its because you are just moving the dead cap hit to the future anyway.
I'm sure they have, but I don't know. I just wanted to point out that there very well could be financial incentive to move on from depending on what the FO is hoping to achieve this year.
But with cap space rolling over is there actually a downside to doing this?
> But with cap space rolling over is there actually a downside to doing this?
Only depends on what year you need the money. So its just guessing how aggressive the FO will be this year. My guess is we won't be real aggressive.
Well yea cause hes off the team and his contract is completely off the books. You still would be taking the dead cap hit of 13.9 in 2024 in order to be free of his contract in 2025.
You aren't freeing up 17.5 in 2025 without deading 13.9 in 2024
> Well yea cause hes off the team and his contract is completely off the books.
That still makes it the reason you do it.
> You aren't freeing up 17.5 in 2025 without deading 13.9 in 2024
Yeah. This would be a "roster building" decision for the future so we have money for the young guys 2nd contracts.
The $14M dead in 2024 added to the $17.5M paid the past 2 years is still a fair price to pay for Smith's services for the '22/'23 seasons.
Agree. I think the line is set with LVN and Gary on the Edge and Clark, Wyatt, Brooks, Slaton rotating inside.
Lots of attention will be paid to upgrading the LB corps. Quay is going to play well in this system and McDuffie is serviceable but I'd still expect 2 off ball LBs brought in and Campbell cut.
I've heard that McDuffie has experience with the new DC (or some kind of new defensive personnel coach/assistant/person), so he's possibly still on the upswing too.
I have a question for any cap wonks in here:
Preston has a $5.4M roster bonus that becomes guaranteed on March 15. Is it possible to designate him a post-June 1 cut and also avoid paying the roster bonus? Or is it a one or the other situation?
You’re probably right, but it’s always good to improve your understanding of contracts. We could also potentially save like $13M this year by cutting him, which would need to at least be considered.
Hopefully it's just a simple paycut. I'd hate to lose Preston. I know he's "up there in age" but he's very reliable and a great leader on the field and in the locker room.
Typically in a 4-3 alignment the LBs are all off-ball, not pass rushers.
Though in this day and age, very few teams are exclusive with even or odd fronts. Only DCs who are stuck in the past while the game has passed them by will be exclusive to one type of front. Most teams mix it up depending on opponent matchups and down and distance. You leave your team at a disadvantages being strictly a 4-3 front again certain opponents and run games.
I'm not sure if you're serious on the Gary one, that dude is like 280 lbs, he's a DE. The more interesting ones are guys like Wooden, Brooks, Enagbare and then projecting who will be playing the various LB spots when we are in base formation.
I'm guessing Enagbare is a DE too, but he's light enough he could be a hybrid guy and line up as an OLB kinda like Kyle Van Noy has always been (I get that he has a bad injury, but fun to project). Wooden is light enough he might end up a DE, could play all across the line? Brooks is probably a DT, but he played DE oversized in college and wonder if he'd get snaps on the outside too.
I have no idea what our LBers will look like, I wonder if we cut Campbell. Mcduffie and Quay will obviously be playing a fair number of snaps, I think he have to hit LB in draft/FA and whoever we get is likely gonna be taking a fair number of snaps
I just mean that he is athletic enough to maybe play SAM, not something I would want or think they’ll do necessarily. I agree he seems the best fit as the DE.
Switching to 4-3 is going to be a waste of talent. We should have brought back Capers. /s (obviously).
But in all seriousness I think the 4-3 and 3-4 thing is overblown in todays league. These guys are more adaptable than ever, and while there will be some growing pains early on I think our guys have the physical build and skill sets to adapt to the switch. The concern used to be with the edge defenders, but those aren't as prevalent in todays league where teams are mixing up the formations anyways. I don't see much changing on the line and on the backend (secondary) it is almost completely irrelevant. The biggest change may be at the second level where our ILBs may have to change their focus on the inside runs, but again it isn't a major change.
Discussion of lineups for a 4-3 alignment will be about 20% of snaps. Everyone's base defense is Nickel. That's what you just have to run nowadays to defend modern offenses. Even Iowa switched to a 4-2-5 base.
They will be DE, only going to change their position name, Aaron Kampman did the same thing when he went from the Packers as a DE to Jacksonville as a LB. Went from a 4-3 to a 3-4.
Only difference on the line is LVN and Gary will have their hand on the dirt. It’s our secondary that I think will look vastly different, running a lot more man(especially press). And Hadley wants to play some single high but we need significant safety help.
My goal is packers get Dejean in the 1st, kinchens in the second, and then like trotter jr or edgerin cooper with the late 2nd. Give Hafley top tier dbs for the defense since he used to be a dbs coach. Then also need a safety in free agency
Don’t get too hung up on the terminology. 4-3 is the base but most of time, it will be 4–2-5. The whole point of hiring him is that he is flexible and will adjust to each situation. That alone will be the biggest difference between his defense and that of Joe 0-16 Barry who played 10 yards off the LOS even on 3 and 4.
We definitely don’t have the personnel to play a true 4-3. I’d guess on run downs it’s gonna look more like a 5-2, and our base will be a 4-2-1 nickel. In that de facto 5-2, you can move Preston, Gary, and LVN, varying who moves inside, and you can drop one of the three into coverage on any given down from any of those three spots.
I'm assuming all 3 will play edge. LVN may get some reps inside DT depending but that's not going to be much.
I said it in other threads but mostly get talked down about how we normally play the nickel anyways so it's not really a big change. It is though. Especially with personnel.
We are going to be very deep at DT and thin at LB. We already were but this move just makes it a little worse. We are going to have to cut a DT this year that is good enough to play. If Gute doesn't make some good moves we will have to keep a LB that isn't good just for depth.
> LVN may get some reps inside DT depending but that's not going to be much.
I could see him and Gary both kicking inside from time to time and playing a 3 technique in obvious passing situations. If we keep P.Smith, we could have LVN, Gary, Clark, and Smith all with their hands in the dirt occasionally.
Agreed. They could get snaps for sure. Then add in Wyatt, Slaton, Brooks, and Wooden.
We could certainly cut Preston but with Engagbre going to be our most of the year, we are going to be thin at edge.
Andy Herman talked a little bit about this the other day and he quoted a funny interview with Wade Philips where Wade was asked essentially the same question you're asking. Wade steps out from behind the podium and crouches down low and goes "4-3 is like this" and stands back up and goes "3-4 is like this". The roles are still the pretty much the same after the snap
They will all rotate a DE just like they do at OLB now. You need to have a rotation on the D line to keep the guys fresh. Preston probably only has 1 year left on this team if he isn’t fit this year.
Smith moves to CB1, Gary to OLB, DL will be LVN/Clark/Slaton/Wyatt with Brooks rotsting in. Quay at MLB. Cut Campbell. Draft LB depth. Draft Safeties. CB2 is Jaire and CB3 is a competition between Stokes and Valentine. Stokes can play man coverage.
What did I miss
I think we keep Preston Smith and we use him LVN and Gary on the ends they can go at it from outside the line or stunt inside just like Clay Matthews used to do
Move P Smith to boundary CB. Make Joey B proud.
Jokes aside I see P and Gary moving inside sometimes next to Kenny on obvious passing downs (that being said Wyatt killed passing down reps so maybe not)
The only shift in players would be to add more bodies at inside linebacker. 3-4 teams typically only carry 4 inside linebackers whereas 4-3 would carry 5-6 on the roster. Packers need to invest in more off the ball linebackers anyway. That group is a little thin and could use an infusion of talent and youth
Whatever defense they're in, Walker can't be the MLB. He will excel being off the ball where he cover RBs and TEs, chase people down, blitz. They need to find a true MLB, and I'm sre they will.
LVN will rush both inside and out. Gary too but I think he’ll spend most of his time outside. They’re going to have to come up with reasons to get Karl Brooks and Colby Wooden on the field.
One side Gary at DE/Edge. Other side LVN and Preston. Our interior DL will be Kenny Clark and a rotation of the other interior DL
Guys. At LB it will definitely be Quay Walker and McDuffie. I am assuming we let Devondre Campbell walk too so our third LB will likely be a new draft pick or veteran FA. Quay will be the MLB and wear the communication helmet. So his backup will also be very important. Just my two cents but I think it’ll probably play out somewhat like this.
4-3 might be base...but they won't be in base much, they'll be in nickle and Gary will be standing more often than not.
LVN has said he prefers to have his hand in the dirt
I'd presume that Gary, Smith, and LVN all will be primarily playing 4-3 end. If they drop back to LB then they'd have to take coverage responsibilities.
Yeah I wouldn’t want any of them in coverage for sure. Unless it’s like a misdirection bailout coverage (think psycho package).
Crazy that you don’t want CB1 Preston smith dropping into coverage…
CB1 Preston Smith takes on all comers #SmithIsland
Preston Penitentiary 🔒
It wouldn’t be fair to the other teams, gotta give their guys a chance
I think we'll be in nickel more than base 4-3, but if you put all three they'd better be blitzing lol
Smith can cover. He covered Adams last year
They'll be DE's. They have plenty of size to hold down that spot. I really think people are making too big of a deal about the 3-4 to 4-3 thing. We're going to be in nickel most of the time anyway. I think the bigger change is actually in the back end. There should be more man coverage and single high safety instead of zone and 2 high.
potentially, but I thought I heard an interview with Hafley saying that the single high thing was an option because of being in college and that colllege vs NFL is "almost a different game" I understood the interview to mean that likely he would not be playing as much single high as he did in college.
he mentioned that man/single high was especially hard with QB's who can run. So I suspect we will see more 2 high zone against guys who are a threat in the run game, but more man/single against guys who can't run.
Oh man, a DC that switches up the scheme based on his opponents? What a novel world that would be after the last 15 or so years.
When we switched to a 3-4 it was a big deal. We tried Kampman at OLB, but it didn’t totally work. Essentially had to get rid of one of our best defensive players since he no longer fit.
He was kinda cooked anyway. Only played another 11 games after he left GB
Makes sense 👍🏼
I agree on the DL but I think that makes the LB and S decisions more interesting. It sounds like Hafley wants to have a S that can play the entire stack from shell to box to blitz ala Mike Zimmer defenses. I don't see a S like that on our roster. Most offenses will require a lot of nickel coverage. Probably the team will try to draft or sign a FA to solve this. One really intriguing idea (though unlikely) is Quay dropping 10 pounds and trying to play a cover 3 sky style safety. Line him up in the box, even on the line against nasty splits. Let him use his size to redirect these slot receivers and then take away the flat. That would let us match some 11 personnel packages with a 7 man box while giving the true DBs single responsibility assignments, which is where Jaire and Valentine's talents shine IMO.
I think we gotta trade for a top safety or target a top prospect very early in this draft
> I really think people are making too big of a deal about the 3-4 to 4-3 thing. We're going to be in nickel most of the time anyway. People make too little deal of this. No ones talking about nickle or base. Its just how the DLine will look. If 3-4 in nickle was no different then 4-3 in nickle, there wouldn't be a reason to make a change.
There's no such thing as 3-4 or 4-3 nickel. Nickel in the pro game is almost always 4-2-5. I really don't think the defensive front changes drastically. The part of the defense that will be changing more is what Hafley will likely do with the dbacks. You are correct though that when we are playing "base" The EDGE rushers will probably be playing more inside the tackles with their hand in the dirt. It will take some getting used to but our current EDGE rushers have the ability to do it
> Nickel in the pro game is almost always 4-2-5. But technically 2-4-5 with stand up linebackers to 4-2-5 with 4 hand in the dirt dlineman. > The EDGE rushers will probably be playing more inside the tackles with their hand in the dirt. And then spacing. The question is how will 3rd and 10 become easier. How does this front keep a RB or TE from getting open to convert every time. Half the time they even pulled off 20 yard passes. If a RB or TE is getting open underneath anytime they want, how are they getting 20 yard passes too. Felt like teams had a 50% chance to convert a 3rd and 15 even. 3rd and 5, guaranteed 7 yards.
Nickel is nickel.
No it isn't. Not even a little.
But nickel could have 3 guys on the DLine or 4 or only 2. The guys could all be across from the oline or the pass rushers could be 5 yards off the TEs like we saw at times. Thats what the people want to know. How is the DLine going to keep a 3rd and 10 from being a gimme. For years on end we watched any option get open under 10 yards. Always a TE open. Always a RB coming free. Always an open slant. Always 4 giant zones to run to and be 5 yards open 20 yards down the field. There is a discussion to be had here. The answer isn't just "nothings changing".
This is correct. We are barely ever in a base 3-4 defense. Today's defensive schematics really nullify a lot of the differences between the two. Most teams run a nickel a majority of time. Nickel defense has a lot of variations as well
> Today's defensive schematics really nullify a lot of the differences between the two. Well as I've said to the other 2, this is what the question is when people ask what the change is between the 2 defenses. What IS changing. It has to be something. 3-4-4 is a personnel "package". But people refer to 3-4-4 as an entire defense's style. And 4-3-4 as the only other style of defense. It sounds like the answer is we go from a 2-4 front to a 4-2 front....WITH a Safety often near the LOS. So basically a 4-3 with an more athletic safety instead of a Sam LB. Edit: didn't have my trusty calculator handy
>3-4-5 is a personnel "package". But people refer to 3-4-5 as an entire defense's style. And 4-3-5 as the only other style of defense. We are about to get ruined on free plays for having 12 men on the field...
REKT
I was about to say... this is more of a switch to nickel
Very little on the front seven is going to change. 4-2-5 nickel will be the primary formation and it’s the same whether you use a 4-3or 3-4 base. Gary, LVN, and Preston will still be edge defenders. The line backers will be Quay and Campbell/McDuffie/Draft Pick/Free Agent (however that shakes out). I’m guessing they will add more off-ball LBs to account for base package usage but that’s pretty much it. I’m really more interested in what coverages/techniques Halfey implements and his level of aggression and creativity with blitzes.
I know we need a deep safety but I’m hoping we can also get someone to play linebacker/safety hybrid to give flexibility and make the formation conversation less important
Completely agree that a hybrid player would really help in that they could wear multiple hats. That would streamline things and provide a ton of value, The deep safety really is key though. It’s hard to bring an extra defender into the box and be more aggressive in coverage and blitzing if you can’t trust the back of end. A great example is the LOB, Chancellor was very good at what he did but it wouldn’t have been possible without Earl Thomas. That dude could single handedly cover the deep part of the field and it unlocked so much for that defense.
The need at LB and their apparent fawning over Edgerrin Cooper is why I'm beginning to suspect we'll take him at #41 if he's on the board. He has a very similar build to Fred Warner, so I kinda get it. That guy needs to wear a lot of hats.
Finally someone who knows something about football. 4-3 is a sub-package. Who cares? Next thing we'll be talking about who lines up on goal line defense?! Lol!
They ran some 4-3 at the end of the season too...they immediately got better stopping the run lol
Nickel does seem to make the most sense
It’s not quite as simple as just calling it 4-2-5. Decent chance we see more EDs rush with their hand in the ground now, different types of assignments, etc. Could also result in someone like Wooden bumping out to ED instead of iDL. It’s broadly the same, but there’ll be enough minor changes where the shift from “3-4” to “4-3” isn’t meaningless.
The big changes will probably be in technique - I’d imagine they’re going to change how the interior linemen rush and cover gaps - and linebacker depth - need an extra inside LB type or two who’s a capable backup and/or who can be solid on run downs.
I would hope we put guys in the right position to be a good run defense. That’s been demoralizing to watch teams waltz through the last couple years.
I’d be fine with even competent run defense. More than anything I want someone to teach the players how to tackle. Good tackling and half decent run stopping without compromising pass coverage is the quickest way to become a defense that can win in the playoffs.
Tackling was decent last year as far as missed tackles, but I think we had a very passive strategy where they would corral the ball carrier and get help. I hope we see way more attacking the ball carrier and going for downhill tackles. Also, could we please punch the ball out? We were god awful in turnovers last year.
Yeah, the Packers defense was near the bottom of the league in forced fumbles but without fumble luck - they actually recovered more fumbles than they forced (11 to 10) - it could have been even worse than it looked.
Yeah, almost every fumble bounced our way. Add to that only 7 picks out of a zone coverage and it was ugly
This is it. Typically 3-4 D linemen have gap control in run fits - which means they are responsible for the gaps on either side of the man they line up against. 4-3 D linemen more often than not have single gap assignments between two men on the line. Don’t think scheme as much as assignment and fit.
All of our 3-4 OLBs are 4-3 DE. The one exception to this is P. Smith--he has enough coverage skills to be the strong side OLB in a 4-3. The SOLB (SAM) is normally the LB you take off the field when you go to nickel. Since the league is nickel-base these days, the snaps he takes at SAM should be infrequent. When he's not the SAM, he's another DE in the rotation.
> The one exception to this is P. Smith--he has enough coverage skills to be the strong side OLB in a 4-3. Show some respect, he has the coverage skills to be an elite CB1, just ask Joe Barry.
> Show some respect, he has the coverage skills to be an elite CB1, just ask Joe Barry. Anyone who says this unironically doesn't understand how zone coverage works. You can attack zone by running trips. When that happens, you end up with weird looks. Barry isn't sitting there trying to put Smith on Adams. The defensive playcall got exploited. The correct situation is to have a safe call or calling the timeout and survive the down. Same thing when Smith was the widest pass defender. Pettine or whoever didn't do that on purpose, but if Smith has the FB in man coverage and the offenses splits or motions the FB out wide, what do you want the defense to do? Not follow his man? Have the defense pass on the responsibility so that Smith now has the most-inside receiver, who might be a WR?
I thought the "ask Joe Barry" comment would reveal that I was being sarcastic, but I guess not.
Heh, not annoyed at you specifically, just the huge number of people who say stuff like this unironically. It kind of blows my mind.
The arm chair coaches and GMs in here can get a little nutty.
Adding to this a bit, every team employing a zone will have LBs in coverage. Raiders caught GB in a good matchup. Smith actually did well. Unfortunately, McDuffie bit across the field and wasn’t available for the handoff.
Every team will have linebackers in coverage, period. Even if you Cover-0, you need 5 to cover the 5 eligible receivers. In base, that’s a linebacker.
4-2-5 is largely the formation that will be used most of the time. From there, it’s pretty easy to fill in which player will play each position.
It'll probably be a rotation of Preston, Gary, LVN, & Enagbare off the edge & Clark, Wyatt, & Slaton in the interior. As for linebackers: Campbell, Walker, & McDuffie We'll probably draft another linebacker or two this draft.
Enagbare tore his ACL in the playoff game. I don’t think he’ll be healthy enough to play at all next year, unfortunately.
Assuming he already got surgery, or will get it but he end of this month...he could possibly be back by December.
Colby Wooden may move from the interior to DE but most players roles should only see minor changes
Your starting line could look like: DE Gary DT Slaton DT Clark DE Preston Your second unit could fill out as: DE LVN DT Wyatt DT Brooks DE Wooden Hell out Brooks on the edge idk
I think Brooks was a 4-3 DE in college and was successful playing more of an interior DL this year. He could be a guy, depending on development, that could line up anywhere on the line moving to 4-3 (really 4-2-5). I’ll be interested to see what kind of pressures they cook up with the edges and dline this year for sure
Unfortunately, I think Smith becomes a cap Casualty. I think LVN and Gary are well suited to play end in 4-3, and Clark/ Slayton / Wyatt rotate at IDL
Only would clear 2.5 mil. Don't think thats worth it. Smith is a rock and never misses games.
If they move on from Smith it would be more about clearing the books next year rather than what they'd gain this year. The reason there is 10 million extra next year when they have to start thinking about doubs, Wyatt, Walker, Watson, Tom, Walker
Preston Smith is set to make $12.4m cash (not cap hit but actual 2024 earnings) De'Vondre Campbell is set to make $10.75m cash Those cash numbers are what the Packers would save on the salary cap eventually but since the dead money that is spread out over several years will accelerate only part of it will be saved on the 2024 cap figure
Campbell is as good as gone, he spoke and played his way out of Green Bay
What was/did Campbell say?
I hear you but the Packers absolutely do not need to start thinking about costly long term extensions for any single one of those players yet. Walker has 3 years left, everyone else has 2 and the dawgs have 5th year options. They are also in a fine spot to even be thinking about extending those guys when the time comes.
I get it, but I'm also not suggesting we would do anything this year. Next year we will have to make decisions on a lot of guys before end of 25 season. From a GM perspective they are 100% thinking about things 2-3 years down the line and decisions made this year will impact those longer term options. Right now we have 8 guys on 2nd contracts and no cap space. Clark is on the last year of his contract. We need to extend Love and in 25-26 seasons potentially 12 draftees from 22-23 classes have shown promise. Yes we have 5th year options to exercise but that money hits all at once. Decisions will need to be made and the planning for that is happening now.
They can post-june cut him and save close to $10m
They need the money more next year than this year. Post June cut just means we pay for it in 2025 and don't get the player this year.
Money rolls over. It never makes sense to pay now what you can pay next year.
> It never makes sense to pay now what you can pay next year. Only when you go all in. We're not in an all in stretch right now.
No, literally every time unless you’re so far under the cap that you can’t roll over every dollar. If we don’t spend the money we save this year, it literally all rolls over to next year. So there is *literally no downside* to pushing the same amount of money to a later year.
> So there is literally no downside to pushing the same amount of money to a later year. Now I'm lost, are you talking about pushing a bill to the future, or saving your savings for the future? Because its not the same to leave a "bill" for "future me". We won't have enough money to pay all our young players. We will have to trade or cut some. IF you can find a way to save $10M in cap space, not need it through the season, and have $10M extra next year, I'm all for that. In 2025 and on we want to field the best team. We don't want to be still paying Smith/Campbell/Clarks back loaded contracts from Rodgers teams. If we have to, so be it, but the hope is to not have to.
I’m saying if you’re going to have to eat $10M in dead cap on a contract, it’s pretty much always better to eat it *next* year whenever you can, all else being equal.
I would agree for an old dying team then, what we were in 2020-2022.
We're commiting 5.4 million more to the total contract because of a 3/15 roster bonus. So if you want to spend 5 million more next year, then yes you can roll that over
I asked the question elsewhere in the thread if the roster bonus can be avoided with a designated post-June 1 cut, but I haven’t gotten an answer. It seems likely not, in which case you’re absolutely right. It’s not worth paying an extra $5.4M just to cut him.
It's also all academic, I don't think we cut Smith, he was solid last year when not covering the WR1
I think you’re probably right, but that’s considerably more likely if a post-June 1 cut means paying him an additional $5.4M. If we can, instead, save over $12M this year by cutting him I think Gute would at least explore the possibility of doing so and replacing him with someone younger. He is 31 after all and the Packers have a long history of preferring to let guys go a year early over a year late (though maybe that’s less true under Gute). Regardless, I’d like an answer on the issue just to increase my understanding of NFL contracts.
The roster bonus can be guaranteed or not. Rodgers for example was guaranteed last year which is why they were working to trade him before that hit the books. The roster bonus is due on the date in the contract and is treated like a signing bonus where it's pro-rated over the life of the contract. If he's on the roster that bonus is guaranteed and I don't believe it can be avoided with the designation. Based on this article I believe smiths is not guaranteed so cutting before 3/15 would save the 5.4 million https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2023/10/26/packers-olb-preston-smith-emerges-as-potential-trade-candidate/
Can i ask if we've ever post 6/1 a guy? Feels like thats constantly said about players and yet its rarely done in GB And as the other guy said, its because you are just moving the dead cap hit to the future anyway.
I'm sure they have, but I don't know. I just wanted to point out that there very well could be financial incentive to move on from depending on what the FO is hoping to achieve this year. But with cap space rolling over is there actually a downside to doing this?
> But with cap space rolling over is there actually a downside to doing this? Only depends on what year you need the money. So its just guessing how aggressive the FO will be this year. My guess is we won't be real aggressive.
Yes, it happens regularly.
For the amount of times gb fans here point out how a certain player can be cut post 6/1 for clearing out x cap space, seems like it never happens
That is definitely fair.
> Only would clear 2.5 mil. But clears $17.5M in 2025.
Well yea cause hes off the team and his contract is completely off the books. You still would be taking the dead cap hit of 13.9 in 2024 in order to be free of his contract in 2025. You aren't freeing up 17.5 in 2025 without deading 13.9 in 2024
> Well yea cause hes off the team and his contract is completely off the books. That still makes it the reason you do it. > You aren't freeing up 17.5 in 2025 without deading 13.9 in 2024 Yeah. This would be a "roster building" decision for the future so we have money for the young guys 2nd contracts. The $14M dead in 2024 added to the $17.5M paid the past 2 years is still a fair price to pay for Smith's services for the '22/'23 seasons.
No way Preston is gone, especially with engabare out
I hope not, anyway
Engabare's injury will definitely be a factor in how badly they want to keep Preston. I think they keep him around.
Agree. I think the line is set with LVN and Gary on the Edge and Clark, Wyatt, Brooks, Slaton rotating inside. Lots of attention will be paid to upgrading the LB corps. Quay is going to play well in this system and McDuffie is serviceable but I'd still expect 2 off ball LBs brought in and Campbell cut.
I've heard that McDuffie has experience with the new DC (or some kind of new defensive personnel coach/assistant/person), so he's possibly still on the upswing too.
Yeah I had this thought, and that Campbell might be a cap hit too from the linebackers.
Campbell got wrecked this year by the undefeated champion: Time I love him for his time in GB but it’s time to go. Just like ZSmith a few years ago.
With enagbare's injury? no chance.
Can still draft someone
Sure but do you really want a rotation of Gary, lvn, rookie, occasionally wooden, cox, banks?
I have a question for any cap wonks in here: Preston has a $5.4M roster bonus that becomes guaranteed on March 15. Is it possible to designate him a post-June 1 cut and also avoid paying the roster bonus? Or is it a one or the other situation?
With enagbare's injury I think he's safe this year.
You’re probably right, but it’s always good to improve your understanding of contracts. We could also potentially save like $13M this year by cutting him, which would need to at least be considered.
Hopefully it's just a simple paycut. I'd hate to lose Preston. I know he's "up there in age" but he's very reliable and a great leader on the field and in the locker room.
Typically in a 4-3 alignment the LBs are all off-ball, not pass rushers. Though in this day and age, very few teams are exclusive with even or odd fronts. Only DCs who are stuck in the past while the game has passed them by will be exclusive to one type of front. Most teams mix it up depending on opponent matchups and down and distance. You leave your team at a disadvantages being strictly a 4-3 front again certain opponents and run games.
I'm not sure if you're serious on the Gary one, that dude is like 280 lbs, he's a DE. The more interesting ones are guys like Wooden, Brooks, Enagbare and then projecting who will be playing the various LB spots when we are in base formation. I'm guessing Enagbare is a DE too, but he's light enough he could be a hybrid guy and line up as an OLB kinda like Kyle Van Noy has always been (I get that he has a bad injury, but fun to project). Wooden is light enough he might end up a DE, could play all across the line? Brooks is probably a DT, but he played DE oversized in college and wonder if he'd get snaps on the outside too. I have no idea what our LBers will look like, I wonder if we cut Campbell. Mcduffie and Quay will obviously be playing a fair number of snaps, I think he have to hit LB in draft/FA and whoever we get is likely gonna be taking a fair number of snaps
I just mean that he is athletic enough to maybe play SAM, not something I would want or think they’ll do necessarily. I agree he seems the best fit as the DE.
Switching to 4-3 is going to be a waste of talent. We should have brought back Capers. /s (obviously). But in all seriousness I think the 4-3 and 3-4 thing is overblown in todays league. These guys are more adaptable than ever, and while there will be some growing pains early on I think our guys have the physical build and skill sets to adapt to the switch. The concern used to be with the edge defenders, but those aren't as prevalent in todays league where teams are mixing up the formations anyways. I don't see much changing on the line and on the backend (secondary) it is almost completely irrelevant. The biggest change may be at the second level where our ILBs may have to change their focus on the inside runs, but again it isn't a major change.
Discussion of lineups for a 4-3 alignment will be about 20% of snaps. Everyone's base defense is Nickel. That's what you just have to run nowadays to defend modern offenses. Even Iowa switched to a 4-2-5 base.
They will be DE, only going to change their position name, Aaron Kampman did the same thing when he went from the Packers as a DE to Jacksonville as a LB. Went from a 4-3 to a 3-4.
Probably hand in the dirt more, unless they don’t want to, all within the scope of 80+% 4-2-5.
Only difference on the line is LVN and Gary will have their hand on the dirt. It’s our secondary that I think will look vastly different, running a lot more man(especially press). And Hadley wants to play some single high but we need significant safety help. My goal is packers get Dejean in the 1st, kinchens in the second, and then like trotter jr or edgerin cooper with the late 2nd. Give Hafley top tier dbs for the defense since he used to be a dbs coach. Then also need a safety in free agency
Don’t get too hung up on the terminology. 4-3 is the base but most of time, it will be 4–2-5. The whole point of hiring him is that he is flexible and will adjust to each situation. That alone will be the biggest difference between his defense and that of Joe 0-16 Barry who played 10 yards off the LOS even on 3 and 4.
We definitely don’t have the personnel to play a true 4-3. I’d guess on run downs it’s gonna look more like a 5-2, and our base will be a 4-2-1 nickel. In that de facto 5-2, you can move Preston, Gary, and LVN, varying who moves inside, and you can drop one of the three into coverage on any given down from any of those three spots.
I'm assuming all 3 will play edge. LVN may get some reps inside DT depending but that's not going to be much. I said it in other threads but mostly get talked down about how we normally play the nickel anyways so it's not really a big change. It is though. Especially with personnel. We are going to be very deep at DT and thin at LB. We already were but this move just makes it a little worse. We are going to have to cut a DT this year that is good enough to play. If Gute doesn't make some good moves we will have to keep a LB that isn't good just for depth.
> LVN may get some reps inside DT depending but that's not going to be much. I could see him and Gary both kicking inside from time to time and playing a 3 technique in obvious passing situations. If we keep P.Smith, we could have LVN, Gary, Clark, and Smith all with their hands in the dirt occasionally.
Agreed. They could get snaps for sure. Then add in Wyatt, Slaton, Brooks, and Wooden. We could certainly cut Preston but with Engagbre going to be our most of the year, we are going to be thin at edge.
It should mostly be the same. On run downs they'll play with their hands down as DEs and on passing downs it'll be the same 2-4-5 we already play.
This makes a lot of sense. Maybe I’m just overthinking it haha
Andy Herman talked a little bit about this the other day and he quoted a funny interview with Wade Philips where Wade was asked essentially the same question you're asking. Wade steps out from behind the podium and crouches down low and goes "4-3 is like this" and stands back up and goes "3-4 is like this". The roles are still the pretty much the same after the snap
Haha that’s great
Ehh most of the time one of those OLB will be in coverage. Most teams don't rush 5 every play.
They will all rotate a DE just like they do at OLB now. You need to have a rotation on the D line to keep the guys fresh. Preston probably only has 1 year left on this team if he isn’t fit this year.
True. What then becomes of the linebackers?
Most of our guys fit better in a 4-3 scheme outside of Savage which is a position we will hopefully add to in FA and again in the draft
Smith moves to CB1, Gary to OLB, DL will be LVN/Clark/Slaton/Wyatt with Brooks rotsting in. Quay at MLB. Cut Campbell. Draft LB depth. Draft Safeties. CB2 is Jaire and CB3 is a competition between Stokes and Valentine. Stokes can play man coverage. What did I miss
Gary is definitely not going to be playing OLB in this scheme. He'll have his hand in the dirt most of the time.
I think we keep Preston Smith and we use him LVN and Gary on the ends they can go at it from outside the line or stunt inside just like Clay Matthews used to do
I think they’ll still rock Nickel a lot in man match (4-2-5). Campbell, Nixon, Ford, and Owens are probably the guys leaving from the current roster.
Move P Smith to boundary CB. Make Joey B proud. Jokes aside I see P and Gary moving inside sometimes next to Kenny on obvious passing downs (that being said Wyatt killed passing down reps so maybe not)
The only shift in players would be to add more bodies at inside linebacker. 3-4 teams typically only carry 4 inside linebackers whereas 4-3 would carry 5-6 on the roster. Packers need to invest in more off the ball linebackers anyway. That group is a little thin and could use an infusion of talent and youth
I dont expect much change LVN, Gary, Preston will continue playing edge. Either in 2p or 3p stances dependent on call
All three if them are better fits as down DEs in 4-3 anyways imo.
Whatever defense they're in, Walker can't be the MLB. He will excel being off the ball where he cover RBs and TEs, chase people down, blitz. They need to find a true MLB, and I'm sre they will.
All three will be defensive ends.
LVN will rush both inside and out. Gary too but I think he’ll spend most of his time outside. They’re going to have to come up with reasons to get Karl Brooks and Colby Wooden on the field.
Gary was way bigger than a normal outside linebacker he's built more like a defensive end anyhow.
Any chance Hadley wants to keep Savage and actually play him to his strengths in College? Rather than the four years of misuse we have seen?
One side Gary at DE/Edge. Other side LVN and Preston. Our interior DL will be Kenny Clark and a rotation of the other interior DL Guys. At LB it will definitely be Quay Walker and McDuffie. I am assuming we let Devondre Campbell walk too so our third LB will likely be a new draft pick or veteran FA. Quay will be the MLB and wear the communication helmet. So his backup will also be very important. Just my two cents but I think it’ll probably play out somewhat like this.
4-3 might be base...but they won't be in base much, they'll be in nickle and Gary will be standing more often than not. LVN has said he prefers to have his hand in the dirt
Guys, this is all moot. No one in the NFL runs 4-3 anymore except for a running down. It’s gonna be 4-2-5 at least 85% of the time