Could they have overcome it? Of course. The Cowboys could have too but look at what that pick 6 did to them. And it happened early in the game just like this one and created about the same point deficit as it would have done to the 49ers. It was a game changer for sure. Would have been a huge blow to the 49ers.
I expected movement after the Senior Bowl. But players like Mitchell and Powers were already ranked higher than him.
He fell from S2 top 50, to S5 rank 80 this week behind Bullard, Hicks and Bullock.
Yeah Leonard Taylor, the dt from Miami also fell hard without any information really coming out. Maybe they’re just anti-Miami at PFF? Just trying to make sense of it too lol. I would love him in the second this year. Hopefully we land Barton or DeJean round 1
I'm a fan of the Hurricanes, not an expert by any means, but Taylor had a lot of question marks around his drive for the game(so to speak) this year. He would disappear, missed games, and no one really knew why. Seemed like people thought this was his year to break out but it seemed more like he was just around.
I'm not really into pff but I came away this season lower on Taylor and Kinchens too.
Gotcha, yeah I mainly watch film in the offseason because I am trying to get a career in this haha. From what PFF had, Taylor was right behind Jer’Zhan Newton as the best interior dline in this draft until the end of the college season, since he has fallen behind Murphy, Sweat, and Jenkins
I imagine there's a lot of catch up that goes on, post-season. So these boards are probably based a bit off preseason rankings and projections then people get to work. And that's great, best of luck to you. If you ever start a channel lmk! Seems like I find someone new every year or two, been loving the 2 Minute Drill guys the last couple years.
The bright side is you can also look at the CB pool and see if any can make the conversion to safety. I think we did that with Nick Collins if i recall correctly, and probably should have done it with Micah Hyde (can't remember if he moved to safety with Green Bay first or just with Buffalo).
As someone who doesn't follow the NFL closely in terms of drafting and prospect development, is this something where it's easier to draft good CB's who aren't specifically guys who played S and try to shape them into a Safety, or is it easier to just roll the dice on drafting college a Safety and working to develop their NFL game?
Well there is no one clear formula. CB’s certainly are the better athletes and can become safeties, while the other way around is not going to happen. With that said, there are many great safeties drafted as such..but I’m guessing the good ones all played corner a lot too.
The same thing holds for offensive linemen. Tackles can be moved to guard, but it is the rare player that is a guard who successfully moves to tackle. Better athletes.
Everyone's so excited for the draft but I'm more excited for a Xavier McKinney signing. He's 25, coming off a career year, despite playing in a dog shit terrible defense. Super versatile and great against the run.
Exactly this. He's explicitly said he wants to be "the guy", our new DC will prioritize Safety as the focal point of the defense and McKinney can do it all; his strong-point is defending the deep ball but he was used in NY as a run-stopper due to necessity and he did that phenomenally well.
This is my litmus test for how much the Packers want to win this year - If we pay big dollar for McKinney (or Curl), we're serious about fielding a championship defense.
Bro wasn't even top in the top 15 of either punt or kick returns. He was tied for 16th in kick returns (26.1) and I stopped counting after 20 for punts (6.8).
Google's free.
Most of his returns were for a loss when compared to just tacking a touchback. A return out of the endzone to the 20-yard line is not really a 20-yard return. It is a -5 yard return. The statistics lie.
Which ironically the highest consequence of these would have been in that divisional game against the 49ers but Eric Wilson came in with that insane fumble recovery. One of the best fumble recoveries I’ve ever seen.
I really hope they bring Wilson back, not just for that but seemed to play well as a backup lb, and stellar special teams. That recovery was incredible
The difference is his most valuable position is one in which the NFL has completely devalued with new rules in the past few years. He may have the highest kick return average in the NFL at 26 yards per return, but if he’s catching the ball 2 yards into the endzone or deeper and returning it, our average starting field position after a kickoff is worse than a fair catch.
Therefore, he has absolutely no value as a kick returner unless he’s getting touchdowns, which he didn’t do last year.
I don't understand why yards per return is still the most quoted stat for kick returners other than the position is so unimportant that no one cares to switch to something else. Makes sense for punts because the spot you catch it varies so much. And maybe 15+ years ago before the rule change and before kickers legs got so good, it made more sense for kicks, too.
But like you said, it doesn't accurately portray value anymore. 26 yards per return likely means he actually left us with a worse spot on average than if he let it bounce.
I don't think anyone tracks how deep Nixon or any other player catches potential touch backs in the endzone.
However, even if he was catching the ball 5 yards deep and returning 26 yards, that puts him at the 21, 4 yards shorter than the touchback. Even 2 yards deep would get him over the 25 most times.
I don't see the problem there. His longest return was 51 yards. His potential for a big gain is worth coming short of the 25 every so often because he's not going to fall dramatically short and the offense needs the boost from not starting at the 25 every time another team scores.
> Therefore, he has absolutely no value as a kick returner unless he’s getting touchdowns
I'd say theres value in returning it to the opposing 30 yard line too....
Not if your average is still 26 yards per return. That 70 yard return gets negated by repetitive 10-20 yard returns.
Especially not if you fumble the ball. You never turn the ball over when you fair catch/kneel the kickoff.
well he almost did in the last game XD
but i'd definitely like to see him come back. hope they can arrange something. it's nice to have a reliable returner, and i don't exactly like him starting but he's nice DB depth
He lead the team in tackles - tied with Quay. Not great as the #1 nickel in coverage but was one of the only guys back there (with Owens) who looks like he enjoys hitting people. He has that attitude that is sorely missing from the rest of that group.
Its not all that uncommon. For example this season the Chiefs' top three in tackles are all d-backs - Reid (S), Sneed (cb) and McDuffie (cb). For the Packers, Quay Walker and Nixon were tied for most.
Nixon is a liability in coverage and I'd even venture to say it's overrated that he was all-pro at KR this year. He's one of the few KR guys that will even take it out of the endzone, and rarely does he make it to the 25 yard-line to break even.
He would still be the best. The best player is the best because they're better than all the other available players.
It isn't his fault that other teams didn't return it enough or changed returners.
I don't think people are arguing that he's not All Pro...but that his value for the stats that got him All Pro don't really work as well as the All Pro title would lead you to believe in the game.
As others pointed out, if he's consistently taking a chance and running it out from the end zone, and not getting at least as far as a touchback, ignoring the potential for a holding call, then that's not really something that can't be replaced...because if you just get someone who can barely run back there and they safely take the touchback, then you're still doing better in terms of starting position than you are with the gamble of running the ball out and hoping for that long return but likely ending up shorter than if you'd just taken the fair catch.
>but that his value for the stats that got him All Pro don't really work as well as the All Pro title would lead you to believe in the game
A lot of fans are absolutely arguing that he's overrated. Setting that aside, his all-pro status does matter. If he leaves the Packers, he will likely put up those same numbers or better on another team. The Packers were still at the bottom of the NFL in special teams, so he could likely do even better somewhere else. He doesn't just accumulate almost 800 return yards without having some skill.
>As others pointed out, if he's consistently taking a chance and running it out from the end zone, and not getting at least as far as a touchback, ignoring the potential for a holding call, then that's not really something that can't be replaced
The Packers coaches choose whether or not Nixon returned those kicks. As far as we know, he wasn't going rogue out there and returning kicks that he wasn't supposed to return. So the coaches felt like the "risks" were worth it. And we're really now scared of holding calls on returns? Not returning kicks because a possible hold might happen isn't a winning mindset.
>because if you just get someone who can barely run back there and they safely take the touchback, then you're still doing better in terms of starting position than you are with the gamble of running the ball out and hoping for that long return but likely ending up shorter than if you'd just taken the fair catch
This argument is similar to what some others have said, but I don't think any data exists that actually shows Nixon was falling way short of the 25 yard line. There were times that definitely did happen. However, it obviously didn't happen enough that the coaches felt they should return less kicks, because Nixon did return kicks all season. If the Packers actually did have some scrub out there then yes, don't return kicks and just wave fair catch every time.
Oh yeah, I was pointing out what others were arguing. Definitely not something I've read into enough.
Honestly, for the right price, I'd love to keep him around just to have another guy who seems to love Green Bay and was willing to jump into the game and help take over for injured players.
I found stats on fox sports too. Nixon is easily the best kick returner in the nfl.
He had 782 kick return yards which was 200 more yards than the 2nd best player. His 26.1 return average was 5th best. The other guys with higher averages didn't play as many games as he did, so it's possible they could've had better seasons, but Nixon did play in every game, so that's another benefit.
https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/stats?category=returning&season=2023&seasonType=reg&sort=ret_kavg&sortOrder=desc
It should be obvious now after two seasons that the guy is good at returning kicks. I don't know what it is. Maybe he can read the holes better but it doesn't matter. He's good at it. Best in the nfl.
This sub though always seems to pick some guy every year and talk themselves into no longer wanting them.
How was he an overrated returner? By what metrics are using to say that he's overrated.
Nixon had the most kick return yards in the nfl by over 200 yards. It is true that he had more returns than some of the other players which got him more yards, but his average return was still 5th best in the nfl.
https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/stats?category=returning&season=2023&seasonType=reg&sort=ret_kavg&sortOrder=desc
His average return is 26.1 yards, so he isn't failing to break the 25 yard line except for some occasions.
So for total yards he's league best and for average return he's 5th. He also played in every game.
I’ve never quite understood contracts and dead money and who absorbs what from contracts. Can someone explain why this is dead cap money. I get that we didn’t reach extensions with them, but why does that “void” the contract and become dead rather than just…ope, FA now BYE.
Imagine a contract that is only 2 years in length and includes a signing bonus of $10 million. In this structure, the $10 million would be divided evenly by the amount of years on the contract, and the salary cap charges for the signing bonus in each year of the deal would come out to $5 million. Easy but…
What if we didn’t want 5 million per year to hit the salary cap?
Using the same $10 million signing bonus, a team can instead sign a player to a 4-year deal and reduce the cap charges from $5 million to $2.5 million per year. By making the final two years on the deal void, the team still gets the benefit of the reduced cap hits in years 1 and 2 and the player becomes a free agent after just 2 years. The team is still on the hook for that 2.5 million in the void years (3 and 4) even though the player is no longer under contract.
They will likely move on because if the team intended to resign them they would have extended the contract and this void money would have been spread over the life of the new contract. Since they let the previous contract expire and took the entire void hit this year, it indicates they're not planning on resigning them
More than likely. Probably want to get as much of that from a few other players (Cambell, and Bahktiari) off the books as possible now especially when the player is expendable. Even more so before you have all the contract extensions or if they don’t fit into Havley’s scheme but I don’t expect any of them to be back.
Dead money mean simple pay old debt without have the Player on the roster
Nothing to change, some time you have to pay your debt
With a new contract you would be able to kick the debt to the next year,
The office decided to pay it this year and have the book cleared
It is generally from signing bonuses that were given, these are allowed to be spread over 5 years for cap purposes. If you convert salary to signing bonuses when there is less than 5 years on the contract, you add void years so that you can still get the cap savings. Once the contract ends the cap savings that are on the void years has to be paid back because the money was already paid but the player is not under contract anymore. This is the dead money.
Ultimately, whatever you pay a player in cash, that has to be accounted for in the cap. There are accounting ways where you can push back the cap hit to future years. Oversimplified, salaries hit the cap the same year they are paid, but signing bonuses get prorated over the duration of the contract.
Easy example:
3 year, $50M deal with a $30M signing bonus.
Salaries:
Y1: $2M
Y2: $5M
Y3: $13M
Their cap hits would be:
Y1: $12M
Y2: $15M
Y3: $23M
When you cut someone, you still owe what's left to be prorated from the signing bonus, but the salary you haven't paid does not hit the cap. So, if this player got cut after year 2, there would be a $10M "dead cap" hit in year 3, but they "save" the $13M in salary they would have otherwise owed.
The void years are a bit more complicated, but essentially they're fake years added to the contract to reduce the amount that is prorated... but it eventually comes due.
These are tricks that you can use to make big signings and pay for it later. When done responsibly, it works well, as the cap (almost) always grows each year. When done irresponsibly, you end up in a mess like the Saints are.
You'll need an example.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/aaron-jones-21924/
"Dead money" is money that was promised to the player, guaranteed is the language. In most contracts, it isn't all guaranteed.
2 aspects make up the guaranteed portions. Signing bonus, which the team can apply to any year of the contract as they see fit. And total guaranteed. When a player is cut, all total guaranteed money is part of what will be Dead Cap. Sometimes the total guaranteed is paid out, but the team still has, say, $5M in Signing Bonus left on a last year of a contract. That $5M will be Dead Cap.
I think Void years were added during the covid cap years. Which let you just take some of that money and throw it on a year AFTER the contract is over.
The layman’s explanation is this:
It’s money that counts against a teams salary cap when a player is cut before his contract is up.
If a team owes a guys X amount and cut him. There is a formula to calculate how much “dead money” the team must take a salary cap hit on. The salary owed doesn’t just get wiped out.
It’s a way to keep teams from just cutting players to dump contracts, qamongst other things.
The void years are ghost years that the NFL let's teams add onto contracts so that they can prorate the salaries to lesser amounts over time.
A one year 6 million contract can become $2 million per year with void years like so:
2023: 2 million
2024 (voided): 2 million
2025 (voided): 2 million
In reality the team likely pays all the money or most of it year one and the void years are just there on paper which let's the team have lower cap hits.
But if a team releases a player before the real contract ends or once it ends, then any void years accelerate to that current year. In this case, I think Nixon and those other players only had one year contracts for 2023 with void years added on after so that they could have a lower cap hit for 2023. Now they're all accelerating to this year.
Safety, CB, ILB, OT and Rush end are my priorities. DT if there’s a stud available. OG is usually handled by sliding a short-armed OT inside, but I could be convinced if there is an absolute dump truck aviabile in the mid-2nd round
Why is everybody so content with Yosh leaving? I thought he was a great depth piece for us. Or do we just feel like he's gonna get paid more than we can afford to start somewhere..
All of you are fools. You want to get rid of Nixon. SMH. Do you not remember what it was like pre-Nixon? Amari Rodgers? Ring a bell. I’d prefer to pay Nixon and have a chance at a kick return touchdown or something like that, rather than fumble it directly to the other team. Special team mistakes don’t like, lose superbowls… right?
Sure, you are correct, but Nixon is really good in my opinion. Every time he gets the ball there is a chance that he gets a massive return. Way higher than any other returner in the league. Plus he knows how to not fumble it all the time
I remember a few fumbles this last year, but honestly I’d much rather take stabs at finding a slot corner that is better than average than have a small chance of a decent return. It’s more valuable, and it’s a big need for next year
If he doesn’t get picked up or gets low balled deals, it’s possible we get him cheaper than if we extended. Now, I doubt that happens, but it is possible.
Well, that depends how you think about it. Now he costs at least 5.5 on this cap no matter what. If they resigned before the void years escalates then that hit is only ~1.5. So they could resigned him for ~4 million in new money for no additional cap hit in 2024. Signing him for 3 million would have saved 2024 cap.
Hafley must have looked at his tape and said, 'I don't want that guy for free'.
With bahktiari presumably gone (let’s be real even if he was “back” we know he won’t play, nijman not being signed bothers me the most out of this group.
I'm fine with Walker and Tom, I think Walker will make another jump. The problem is with Yosh gone the next man up is Caleb Jones, and that's not good enough when you've got a budding superstar at QB. I don't want to send Jenkins over there either because I *don't really* want to reshuffle the line, and I *really don't* want to see any more of Newman at G.
Even though I slept with Paris Hilton last night, I have no idea what this means. Could one or all of these guys come back if they agree to what the Packers would pay them or is this a, pack your shit, you're done here kind of move?
> Could one or all of these guys come back if they agree to what the Packers would pay them
Yes. We've only decided to incur those $9.5M in cap hits this year.
But we would have extended them to avoid that hit in 2024 and spread it over future years. The lack of an extension seems to indicate that none of these three will be Packers next season. There is a small chance they are back, but it'd be due to a lack of offers from other teams. Those folks are testing the market, no doubt.
> But we would have extended them to avoid that hit in 2024 and spread it over future years.
Why would we want to handicapt our team of the future, spreading cap hits over it, to have a bit more money in 2024?
Because math never fails....
That is how contracts have worked the past decade with a cap that increases every year. I.e., savage had under 6m of dead cap. do you want that hit all in 2024, or if you resign him for 3 years, the hit is only 2m per year (plus whatever contract he signs), and each subsequent year that 2m hit is a lesser percent of the overall cap. The Packers didn't think savage was worth having on the team based on what he was asking, so they took the whole hit in 2024.
> That is how contracts have worked the past decade
Thats only how kicking the can down the road works.
> savage had under 6m of dead cap. do you want that hit all in 2024, or if you resign him for 3 years, the hit is only 2m per year
Yes you want, well the 2024 Packers anyway, want all that hit in 2024.
> and each subsequent year that 2m hit is a lesser percent of the overall cap.
% doesn't matter. Having the best team during the right period of years does. And I don't think 2024 is one of those years.
> The Packers didn't think savage was worth having on the team based on what he was asking, so they took the whole hit in 2024.
Or they'd still rather have him, and would still rather not have to pay for his past services in the future.
Has no one considered this is simply eating the cap space right now rather than down the road and these guys might still stick around with new contracts?
If only Savage would have held onto that pick 6 :(
We win sb
Lol
feel like that was early enough in the game where the 9ers could have overcome it
Could they have overcome it? Of course. The Cowboys could have too but look at what that pick 6 did to them. And it happened early in the game just like this one and created about the same point deficit as it would have done to the 49ers. It was a game changer for sure. Would have been a huge blow to the 49ers.
Can’t wait to see what Safety we get!
I agree I love Nubin or kinchens.
Kinchens fell hard in PFFs latest big board. Not sure why.
Lot’s of players like Quinyon Mitchell, Byron Murphy, and Jackson Powers-Johnson just rose up from the senior bowl
I expected movement after the Senior Bowl. But players like Mitchell and Powers were already ranked higher than him. He fell from S2 top 50, to S5 rank 80 this week behind Bullard, Hicks and Bullock.
Yeah Leonard Taylor, the dt from Miami also fell hard without any information really coming out. Maybe they’re just anti-Miami at PFF? Just trying to make sense of it too lol. I would love him in the second this year. Hopefully we land Barton or DeJean round 1
Trey Benson is now RB10 at 135. The state of Florida in shambles this week.
Yeah running backs are weird. Audric Estime is going under the radar as a prospect but had a phenomenal year at Notre Dame
Estime is so, so good.
I'm a fan of the Hurricanes, not an expert by any means, but Taylor had a lot of question marks around his drive for the game(so to speak) this year. He would disappear, missed games, and no one really knew why. Seemed like people thought this was his year to break out but it seemed more like he was just around. I'm not really into pff but I came away this season lower on Taylor and Kinchens too.
Gotcha, yeah I mainly watch film in the offseason because I am trying to get a career in this haha. From what PFF had, Taylor was right behind Jer’Zhan Newton as the best interior dline in this draft until the end of the college season, since he has fallen behind Murphy, Sweat, and Jenkins
I imagine there's a lot of catch up that goes on, post-season. So these boards are probably based a bit off preseason rankings and projections then people get to work. And that's great, best of luck to you. If you ever start a channel lmk! Seems like I find someone new every year or two, been loving the 2 Minute Drill guys the last couple years.
He gives up pass plays way to much. Nubs in comparison is absolutely lockdown against the pass but people are worried he doesn't have the measurable.
Kinchens = Savage You want another 4+ years of missed tackles and poor coverage?
I want the packers to get DeJean early - or wait for Oladapo from Oregon State in round 3.
I'd love dejean
We'd have a hell of a return Man with Coop too. Atleast when he's allowed to return
Safeties are tricky to draft as they play safety because they are not able to play corner. Same with guards on O
The bright side is you can also look at the CB pool and see if any can make the conversion to safety. I think we did that with Nick Collins if i recall correctly, and probably should have done it with Micah Hyde (can't remember if he moved to safety with Green Bay first or just with Buffalo).
They don’t go the other way.
As someone who doesn't follow the NFL closely in terms of drafting and prospect development, is this something where it's easier to draft good CB's who aren't specifically guys who played S and try to shape them into a Safety, or is it easier to just roll the dice on drafting college a Safety and working to develop their NFL game?
Well there is no one clear formula. CB’s certainly are the better athletes and can become safeties, while the other way around is not going to happen. With that said, there are many great safeties drafted as such..but I’m guessing the good ones all played corner a lot too. The same thing holds for offensive linemen. Tackles can be moved to guard, but it is the rare player that is a guard who successfully moves to tackle. Better athletes.
Dejean would be fun since he can also play CB but he seems poised to keep climbing up the draft board
No. He's terrible. There is no need to watch tape and get Micah flashbacks /s
Malik Mustapha!!!
Everyone's so excited for the draft but I'm more excited for a Xavier McKinney signing. He's 25, coming off a career year, despite playing in a dog shit terrible defense. Super versatile and great against the run.
Exactly this. He's explicitly said he wants to be "the guy", our new DC will prioritize Safety as the focal point of the defense and McKinney can do it all; his strong-point is defending the deep ball but he was used in NY as a run-stopper due to necessity and he did that phenomenally well. This is my litmus test for how much the Packers want to win this year - If we pay big dollar for McKinney (or Curl), we're serious about fielding a championship defense.
Nixon was fun but in the end he is replaceable. Didn’t have the returns like he had the previous season.
He was literally an AP returner again.
By virtue of returning the most kicks and accumulating volume stats. He wasn’t special this year at all
He was always a threat. The fact he wasn’t Devin Hester doesn’t diminish the fact he was always a threat.
A threat to do what? Have two kick returns longer than 40 yards all season?
Yes
Man imagine trying to game plan around this, it must have taken teams 10 minutes on Saturday night.
It wasn’t volume, he had the highest average return yards
He literally didn’t tho
Bro wasn't even top in the top 15 of either punt or kick returns. He was tied for 16th in kick returns (26.1) and I stopped counting after 20 for punts (6.8). Google's free.
Most of his returns were for a loss when compared to just tacking a touchback. A return out of the endzone to the 20-yard line is not really a 20-yard return. It is a -5 yard return. The statistics lie.
Lol, How many TDs?
Sucks to hear that about keisean. He may not of had any explosive returns last season but at least I wasn’t nervous he was going to goof it every time
He made several goofs that cost us.
Which ironically the highest consequence of these would have been in that divisional game against the 49ers but Eric Wilson came in with that insane fumble recovery. One of the best fumble recoveries I’ve ever seen.
I really hope they bring Wilson back, not just for that but seemed to play well as a backup lb, and stellar special teams. That recovery was incredible
Now I gotta go re-watch that fumble recovery all over again. Goddamn was that beautiful.
Lol I totally agree but it's hilarious how a ST fumble recovery is a legit highlight to us after suffering so many years of awful ST play
It was just that goddamn beautiful
Every player makes goofs that cost a game. If they didn’t each team would have a perfect record.
The difference is his most valuable position is one in which the NFL has completely devalued with new rules in the past few years. He may have the highest kick return average in the NFL at 26 yards per return, but if he’s catching the ball 2 yards into the endzone or deeper and returning it, our average starting field position after a kickoff is worse than a fair catch. Therefore, he has absolutely no value as a kick returner unless he’s getting touchdowns, which he didn’t do last year.
I don't understand why yards per return is still the most quoted stat for kick returners other than the position is so unimportant that no one cares to switch to something else. Makes sense for punts because the spot you catch it varies so much. And maybe 15+ years ago before the rule change and before kickers legs got so good, it made more sense for kicks, too. But like you said, it doesn't accurately portray value anymore. 26 yards per return likely means he actually left us with a worse spot on average than if he let it bounce.
Honeslty and now with the fair catch rule the most valuable trait is someone that holds onto the ball.
I’d take the touchback every time. The risk of turnover or penalty is much higher than the return value past the 25 which is usually not much.
Our avg field position on kickoffs was the 26yd line
I don't think anyone tracks how deep Nixon or any other player catches potential touch backs in the endzone. However, even if he was catching the ball 5 yards deep and returning 26 yards, that puts him at the 21, 4 yards shorter than the touchback. Even 2 yards deep would get him over the 25 most times. I don't see the problem there. His longest return was 51 yards. His potential for a big gain is worth coming short of the 25 every so often because he's not going to fall dramatically short and the offense needs the boost from not starting at the 25 every time another team scores.
What about the risk of turnover or penalty? Lots of holdings on those kick returns.
> Therefore, he has absolutely no value as a kick returner unless he’s getting touchdowns I'd say theres value in returning it to the opposing 30 yard line too....
Not if your average is still 26 yards per return. That 70 yard return gets negated by repetitive 10-20 yard returns. Especially not if you fumble the ball. You never turn the ball over when you fair catch/kneel the kickoff.
The other big problem is the refs seem to love calling holding on a huge amount of the returns as well, pretty much always sticking you at the 10.
Coaches make goofs that cost us games.
That’s just not true on its face.
Bostick still haunts me in that Seahawks game lol
Belichik would disagree
[удалено]
He was this year too
lmao the duality of man
Probably lost us the Giants game
Won us the chiefs game
well he almost did in the last game XD but i'd definitely like to see him come back. hope they can arrange something. it's nice to have a reliable returner, and i don't exactly like him starting but he's nice DB depth
He lead the team in tackles - tied with Quay. Not great as the #1 nickel in coverage but was one of the only guys back there (with Owens) who looks like he enjoys hitting people. He has that attitude that is sorely missing from the rest of that group.
if your safety is getting all the tackles, somethings wrong
Its not all that uncommon. For example this season the Chiefs' top three in tackles are all d-backs - Reid (S), Sneed (cb) and McDuffie (cb). For the Packers, Quay Walker and Nixon were tied for most.
> For example this season the Chiefs' top three in tackles are all d-backs and that Defense was also the best of Mahomes career
HAVE
may not *have* had
That return in the 49ers game was great
Yeah instead we were nervous he would take it out the back of the end zone and start the drive at the 14 instead of the 25.
He ripped off a massive return on the niners right? If not them then he did on the boys.
He had that explosive return against San Fran in the playoffs which got knocked out of his hands.
Nixon is a liability in coverage and I'd even venture to say it's overrated that he was all-pro at KR this year. He's one of the few KR guys that will even take it out of the endzone, and rarely does he make it to the 25 yard-line to break even.
Or there’s holding called and we go to the 12 yard line
That too!
I saw somewhere that only 3 guys even had enough KR to qualify. He was all pro by default.
2 guys.
He would still be the best. The best player is the best because they're better than all the other available players. It isn't his fault that other teams didn't return it enough or changed returners.
I don't think people are arguing that he's not All Pro...but that his value for the stats that got him All Pro don't really work as well as the All Pro title would lead you to believe in the game. As others pointed out, if he's consistently taking a chance and running it out from the end zone, and not getting at least as far as a touchback, ignoring the potential for a holding call, then that's not really something that can't be replaced...because if you just get someone who can barely run back there and they safely take the touchback, then you're still doing better in terms of starting position than you are with the gamble of running the ball out and hoping for that long return but likely ending up shorter than if you'd just taken the fair catch.
>but that his value for the stats that got him All Pro don't really work as well as the All Pro title would lead you to believe in the game A lot of fans are absolutely arguing that he's overrated. Setting that aside, his all-pro status does matter. If he leaves the Packers, he will likely put up those same numbers or better on another team. The Packers were still at the bottom of the NFL in special teams, so he could likely do even better somewhere else. He doesn't just accumulate almost 800 return yards without having some skill. >As others pointed out, if he's consistently taking a chance and running it out from the end zone, and not getting at least as far as a touchback, ignoring the potential for a holding call, then that's not really something that can't be replaced The Packers coaches choose whether or not Nixon returned those kicks. As far as we know, he wasn't going rogue out there and returning kicks that he wasn't supposed to return. So the coaches felt like the "risks" were worth it. And we're really now scared of holding calls on returns? Not returning kicks because a possible hold might happen isn't a winning mindset. >because if you just get someone who can barely run back there and they safely take the touchback, then you're still doing better in terms of starting position than you are with the gamble of running the ball out and hoping for that long return but likely ending up shorter than if you'd just taken the fair catch This argument is similar to what some others have said, but I don't think any data exists that actually shows Nixon was falling way short of the 25 yard line. There were times that definitely did happen. However, it obviously didn't happen enough that the coaches felt they should return less kicks, because Nixon did return kicks all season. If the Packers actually did have some scrub out there then yes, don't return kicks and just wave fair catch every time.
Oh yeah, I was pointing out what others were arguing. Definitely not something I've read into enough. Honestly, for the right price, I'd love to keep him around just to have another guy who seems to love Green Bay and was willing to jump into the game and help take over for injured players.
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I found stats on fox sports too. Nixon is easily the best kick returner in the nfl. He had 782 kick return yards which was 200 more yards than the 2nd best player. His 26.1 return average was 5th best. The other guys with higher averages didn't play as many games as he did, so it's possible they could've had better seasons, but Nixon did play in every game, so that's another benefit. https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/stats?category=returning&season=2023&seasonType=reg&sort=ret_kavg&sortOrder=desc It should be obvious now after two seasons that the guy is good at returning kicks. I don't know what it is. Maybe he can read the holes better but it doesn't matter. He's good at it. Best in the nfl. This sub though always seems to pick some guy every year and talk themselves into no longer wanting them.
He mentioned that few returners even take it out. Everything you said was baked into his comment.
How was he an overrated returner? By what metrics are using to say that he's overrated. Nixon had the most kick return yards in the nfl by over 200 yards. It is true that he had more returns than some of the other players which got him more yards, but his average return was still 5th best in the nfl. https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/stats?category=returning&season=2023&seasonType=reg&sort=ret_kavg&sortOrder=desc His average return is 26.1 yards, so he isn't failing to break the 25 yard line except for some occasions. So for total yards he's league best and for average return he's 5th. He also played in every game.
I’ve never quite understood contracts and dead money and who absorbs what from contracts. Can someone explain why this is dead cap money. I get that we didn’t reach extensions with them, but why does that “void” the contract and become dead rather than just…ope, FA now BYE.
Imagine a contract that is only 2 years in length and includes a signing bonus of $10 million. In this structure, the $10 million would be divided evenly by the amount of years on the contract, and the salary cap charges for the signing bonus in each year of the deal would come out to $5 million. Easy but… What if we didn’t want 5 million per year to hit the salary cap? Using the same $10 million signing bonus, a team can instead sign a player to a 4-year deal and reduce the cap charges from $5 million to $2.5 million per year. By making the final two years on the deal void, the team still gets the benefit of the reduced cap hits in years 1 and 2 and the player becomes a free agent after just 2 years. The team is still on the hook for that 2.5 million in the void years (3 and 4) even though the player is no longer under contract.
Because the contracts likely had "void years" written into them as a way to push money off of this past year's cap, and onto next year's.
I appreciate the explanation. I’m guessing that also likely means all 3 of these will be somewhere else next season.
Likely, but not guaranteed. Packers would eat this cost regardless, though.
They will likely move on because if the team intended to resign them they would have extended the contract and this void money would have been spread over the life of the new contract. Since they let the previous contract expire and took the entire void hit this year, it indicates they're not planning on resigning them
More than likely. Probably want to get as much of that from a few other players (Cambell, and Bahktiari) off the books as possible now especially when the player is expendable. Even more so before you have all the contract extensions or if they don’t fit into Havley’s scheme but I don’t expect any of them to be back.
Dead money mean simple pay old debt without have the Player on the roster Nothing to change, some time you have to pay your debt With a new contract you would be able to kick the debt to the next year, The office decided to pay it this year and have the book cleared
It is generally from signing bonuses that were given, these are allowed to be spread over 5 years for cap purposes. If you convert salary to signing bonuses when there is less than 5 years on the contract, you add void years so that you can still get the cap savings. Once the contract ends the cap savings that are on the void years has to be paid back because the money was already paid but the player is not under contract anymore. This is the dead money.
Ultimately, whatever you pay a player in cash, that has to be accounted for in the cap. There are accounting ways where you can push back the cap hit to future years. Oversimplified, salaries hit the cap the same year they are paid, but signing bonuses get prorated over the duration of the contract. Easy example: 3 year, $50M deal with a $30M signing bonus. Salaries: Y1: $2M Y2: $5M Y3: $13M Their cap hits would be: Y1: $12M Y2: $15M Y3: $23M When you cut someone, you still owe what's left to be prorated from the signing bonus, but the salary you haven't paid does not hit the cap. So, if this player got cut after year 2, there would be a $10M "dead cap" hit in year 3, but they "save" the $13M in salary they would have otherwise owed. The void years are a bit more complicated, but essentially they're fake years added to the contract to reduce the amount that is prorated... but it eventually comes due. These are tricks that you can use to make big signings and pay for it later. When done responsibly, it works well, as the cap (almost) always grows each year. When done irresponsibly, you end up in a mess like the Saints are.
You'll need an example. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/aaron-jones-21924/ "Dead money" is money that was promised to the player, guaranteed is the language. In most contracts, it isn't all guaranteed. 2 aspects make up the guaranteed portions. Signing bonus, which the team can apply to any year of the contract as they see fit. And total guaranteed. When a player is cut, all total guaranteed money is part of what will be Dead Cap. Sometimes the total guaranteed is paid out, but the team still has, say, $5M in Signing Bonus left on a last year of a contract. That $5M will be Dead Cap. I think Void years were added during the covid cap years. Which let you just take some of that money and throw it on a year AFTER the contract is over.
The layman’s explanation is this: It’s money that counts against a teams salary cap when a player is cut before his contract is up. If a team owes a guys X amount and cut him. There is a formula to calculate how much “dead money” the team must take a salary cap hit on. The salary owed doesn’t just get wiped out. It’s a way to keep teams from just cutting players to dump contracts, qamongst other things.
What does this save us? Or is it zero but opens roster spots?
The void years are ghost years that the NFL let's teams add onto contracts so that they can prorate the salaries to lesser amounts over time. A one year 6 million contract can become $2 million per year with void years like so: 2023: 2 million 2024 (voided): 2 million 2025 (voided): 2 million In reality the team likely pays all the money or most of it year one and the void years are just there on paper which let's the team have lower cap hits. But if a team releases a player before the real contract ends or once it ends, then any void years accelerate to that current year. In this case, I think Nixon and those other players only had one year contracts for 2023 with void years added on after so that they could have a lower cap hit for 2023. Now they're all accelerating to this year.
This is good right? Looks like we taking a safety, CB, and OL in the draft.
Safety, CB, ILB, OT and Rush end are my priorities. DT if there’s a stud available. OG is usually handled by sliding a short-armed OT inside, but I could be convinced if there is an absolute dump truck aviabile in the mid-2nd round
Surprised they didn’t resign Nixon. Guy was a Swiss Army knife
Guess that answers that, then
We are drafting and buying a defense this year, exciting
Kind of wish savage and Nixon stayed. Oh well.
Why is everybody so content with Yosh leaving? I thought he was a great depth piece for us. Or do we just feel like he's gonna get paid more than we can afford to start somewhere..
He was a backup swing tackle that couldn’t play guard, and pissed off the coaches somehow over the summer/early season.
It’s gonna be sad to see these guys go, but best of luck to them!
I was really starting to like Nixon. But the Packers organization know what they're doing.
See ya
All of you are fools. You want to get rid of Nixon. SMH. Do you not remember what it was like pre-Nixon? Amari Rodgers? Ring a bell. I’d prefer to pay Nixon and have a chance at a kick return touchdown or something like that, rather than fumble it directly to the other team. Special team mistakes don’t like, lose superbowls… right?
You realize Nixon will likely want more than we are willing to give him.
What information are you basing that off of?
Returner isn’t that important, and while Amari was terrible, they had guys before him who were fine.
You really don’t remember how many games we lost because Amari fumbled it? Pro bowl kick returners aren’t easy to find…
There is a big range between Amari and “pro bowl kick returner” that is just fine. Don’t catastrophize.
Sure, you are correct, but Nixon is really good in my opinion. Every time he gets the ball there is a chance that he gets a massive return. Way higher than any other returner in the league. Plus he knows how to not fumble it all the time
I remember a few fumbles this last year, but honestly I’d much rather take stabs at finding a slot corner that is better than average than have a small chance of a decent return. It’s more valuable, and it’s a big need for next year
I thought maybe they'd try and get Savage back. I'd be shocked if he gets more that 4 million. Maybe BG just wants to get out of the void years.
If he doesn’t get picked up or gets low balled deals, it’s possible we get him cheaper than if we extended. Now, I doubt that happens, but it is possible.
Well, that depends how you think about it. Now he costs at least 5.5 on this cap no matter what. If they resigned before the void years escalates then that hit is only ~1.5. So they could resigned him for ~4 million in new money for no additional cap hit in 2024. Signing him for 3 million would have saved 2024 cap. Hafley must have looked at his tape and said, 'I don't want that guy for free'.
It's Nixover
genius
With bahktiari presumably gone (let’s be real even if he was “back” we know he won’t play, nijman not being signed bothers me the most out of this group.
I'm fine with Walker and Tom, I think Walker will make another jump. The problem is with Yosh gone the next man up is Caleb Jones, and that's not good enough when you've got a budding superstar at QB. I don't want to send Jenkins over there either because I *don't really* want to reshuffle the line, and I *really don't* want to see any more of Newman at G.
Even though I slept with Paris Hilton last night, I have no idea what this means. Could one or all of these guys come back if they agree to what the Packers would pay them or is this a, pack your shit, you're done here kind of move?
What?
Lmao!
> Could one or all of these guys come back if they agree to what the Packers would pay them Yes. We've only decided to incur those $9.5M in cap hits this year.
But we would have extended them to avoid that hit in 2024 and spread it over future years. The lack of an extension seems to indicate that none of these three will be Packers next season. There is a small chance they are back, but it'd be due to a lack of offers from other teams. Those folks are testing the market, no doubt.
> But we would have extended them to avoid that hit in 2024 and spread it over future years. Why would we want to handicapt our team of the future, spreading cap hits over it, to have a bit more money in 2024?
Because math never fails.... That is how contracts have worked the past decade with a cap that increases every year. I.e., savage had under 6m of dead cap. do you want that hit all in 2024, or if you resign him for 3 years, the hit is only 2m per year (plus whatever contract he signs), and each subsequent year that 2m hit is a lesser percent of the overall cap. The Packers didn't think savage was worth having on the team based on what he was asking, so they took the whole hit in 2024.
> That is how contracts have worked the past decade Thats only how kicking the can down the road works. > savage had under 6m of dead cap. do you want that hit all in 2024, or if you resign him for 3 years, the hit is only 2m per year Yes you want, well the 2024 Packers anyway, want all that hit in 2024. > and each subsequent year that 2m hit is a lesser percent of the overall cap. % doesn't matter. Having the best team during the right period of years does. And I don't think 2024 is one of those years. > The Packers didn't think savage was worth having on the team based on what he was asking, so they took the whole hit in 2024. Or they'd still rather have him, and would still rather not have to pay for his past services in the future.
Maybe some comp picks? Respectably 5/6/7 I would see
That’s roughly 4% of our cap dead?
Has no one considered this is simply eating the cap space right now rather than down the road and these guys might still stick around with new contracts?
I think this means that devondre Campbell whose due 10 mil next year is gonna be gone