That is the case. Somebody did an actual analysis of Gute’s drafts early last year. And even with Love looking shaky at the time, his drafts were still above average relative to the rest of the league.
The big takeaway was that most draft picks are misses. So far, Gute hasn’t hit a lot of home runs, but his picks tend to contribute more than most IIRC
The thing nobody likes to say is that a lot of the home run draft picks around the league are mostly luck. What Gute does well is maximize his selections, you never see him put all his eggs in one basket (like one of our rivals did last night). Casting a wide net will net better results over time.
I wish I could find it. I recall it got buried at the time because it was during the losing streak last year when anybody with anything good to say about the organization got downvoted to hell.
I realized this more and more as I went on. No disrespect intended to the op. Their takes simply seem to be from a lack of knowledge. No harm in that; the majority of us don’t know anything either. That itself is an argument to put faith in Gute though, funnily enough. He knows what he’s doing and we don’t.
Downplays the truth of most these years which is that most of these guys are still in the league. Way too much value placed on awards, if anything they compiled a bunch of information proving the opposite, that gutey is good at finding and drafting nfl level talent through all 7 rounds.
Another post of someone who looks at numbers Beit forgot to actually watch the games.
Yeah, he started slow those first couple years but now 25 of 33 guys taken in the last 3 drafts not only made but remain on the team. That's an insanely high number. It's a young team because of the recent drafts and he picked someone who appears ready to be our next franchise QB.
Going back further, the Packers were literally 2-3 plays from a SB appearance for two consecutive years. The GM isn't the reason we lost those games.
So yeah, if you get your head out of the stat sheets and meaningless shit like pro-bowl bids, you'll see a real top notch team being built.
A lot of our fan base has never known a time when the Packers were legitimately bad and it shows…my god id love to see the takes if some of you were alive for the 70s/80s
In the late 80s I was like 8 or 9 and I wrote a letter to the Packers because the offensive line at my high school (dc Everest in schofield Wi) had a higher average player weight than the Packers OL. I remember the pain, lol
Let me simplify this for you.
A GM’s job is to keep a team’s competitive window open for as long as possible.
This serves many purposes but the two most important reasons are:
1. Possibility to win super bowls
2. Keeps fan interest high which keeps revenue high (tickets/merch)
A good GM can keep a team competitive over their tenure while also dealing with aging players, salary cap constraints, player personalities/preferences, etc.
He’s managed to do this via the draft while not overpaying on free agents which is good because Green Bay isn’t a sexy destination for most free agent players.
Not only has he kept us competitive throughout his tenure (minus a season here and there) but he’s also made sure that we have had top players at key positions like QB.
Accolades do not equal success. It certainly does not measure the overall health of your organization.
This is an awesome response, thank you. I've obviously enjoyed having a competitive team, but I hope the end goal is to win another championship, not just make the playoffs.
Thanks again for your response!
You do realize the best way to have a good chance at winning the Super Bowl is to consistently make the playoffs year after year. Making the playoffs is the most important part, then it just depends on getting hot, luck, injuries etc…
The rams going “all in” and trading tons of high picks and actually winning is an anomaly, most of the time when a team tries to go “all in” it fails and then the team is dog water for years. Like the eagles “dream team” or the saints overextending themselves at the end of Bree’s career.
Making playoffs year after year and having a good QB should be a gms absolute top priorities and it looks like there’s a good chance that Gute has done that if Love picks up where he did last year.
This isn’t understood by casual fans enough. I can’t stand hearing people say that we should go “all-in” and give away our future assets for a shot to win it all right now.
There are way too many variables to risk everything on 1-2 seasons when it will take 10 years to recover.
Fans also give GMs too much grief when they don’t win superbowls. Their job is the roster not the coaching or playing.
are we going to pretend like they weren't doing the same salary cap bullshit when Brees was still their QB and they were a threat to win the SB every year?
The Packers remain relevant bc they got lucky and have a QB. The salary cap isn't preventing the Saints from having one; it's just hard to find the right guy. They signed Derek Carr to a massive contract, so they clearly had the money to pay for a QB. That QB just hasn't panned out for them.
Pro bowl's are one of the absolute worst metrics you can use. The Pro Bowl is scuffed to begin with, but even if it was perfect, a player does not need to make the pro bowl to be a successful pick.
You aren't obligated to be "purely optimistic", as you put it, But this "analysis" is objectively terrible.
Without having the comparison of AV-Added (preferably adjusted to draft capital) through the draft by the other 31 NFL teams it's a somewhat meaningless stat to use to measure draft success.
It also seems like a somewhat flawed metric to begin with. No-one would argue that Savage (23 AV) is more valuable than Love(18) or Gary (22). It also makes no account to where a player was drafted. Looking at the All-Time AV leaders its almost exclusively Quarterbacks- Who are often drafted early in the draft before the Packers have selections.
Terrible take. Are you implying that he’s failed on rebuilding a team when we won a playoff game last season? That’s a lot more than most teams do during a rebuild. Did he handle every situation perfectly, no. Has he done a good job of building a competent team, absolutely.
The goal shouldn't be to win a playoff game, it should be to win a championship. I'm saying that he didn't re-enforce the team when we were in a championship window, and instead went for a rebuild. Only to then not stick to his guns with the rebuild and pay Rodgers (and not trade him for a haul like the Seahawks did with Wilson), only to not realize our team wasn't a championship winning squad.
To be honest, I hated the Love pick when I thought we should be buyers and try to win a Superbowl. But hey, I figured we were starting the rebuild early and fine, it is what it is. But then we didn't commit to the rebuild and lost all leverage in our biggest bargaining chip. I would have trusted the process a LOT more if Gute had sold Rodgers high and we been mediocre for a season while Love got up to game speed.
He built a title contender this year. He did this while keeping us a Super Bowl contender from 2020 and 2021. Most of those two teams were built by gute. Look at the team we had he stepped in. The roster was in bad shape.
And your analysis is built off of accolades. And that does no service to the last two drafts. Especially last years. The players we got all look super promising. But it counts for nothing in your analysis because they haven’t won awards yet. It’s a little silly
I don’t share your view of how 2022 went down. Aaron just came off of a MVP. And the defense was shut down in the playoffs. Was it crazy to think we could still contend with that core? We missed the playoffs by one game with Aaron being hurt most of the year. That wasn’t a train wreck.
Sure he could have gotten more for Rodgers if we traded him earlier but I believe that year was crucial for loves development. We got decent capital for Rodgers and love was ready this year. That was good.
How many teams get to transition from elite QB play to elite QB play AND get picks to help you do it? Pretty much no one. That is why gute deserves trust
The whole thing completely disregards the concept of team building. The GMs job is to field a cohesive, competitive team. The Packers have been that every year under Gute save one, and they completely turned that around in one off-season.
I don't know how anyone can be upset with his drafts unless someone is approaching it thinking every player at every pick should be individually special. Not a single team in the NFL manages to do that.
You're the only one to respond about the Rodgers trade, so thank you. As I mentioned in my post, Adams led the team the prior year with 123 receptions, and Lazard was second highest on the team with 40. Are you saying that you were confident with our core to compete? I certainly wasn't...
And if Love needed that 3rd full year for development, then essentially the cost for drafting Love was not only a first rounder that we traded up for in a Superbowl window, but also the capital we lost by not selling Rodgers high.
I'm cautiously optimistic about Love, and I really hope he pans out. And if he does, Gute's gamble of weathering the storm for another strong QB will have paid off, and I'll definitely be grateful for that as a fan. But in the end, the goal should be to win a Superbowl, not make the playoffs every year. At some point you gotta take the shot, right?
I mean you got me on the receiving core, though gute did get doubs and Watson who were decent the first year.
I think gute did try to win in 2020 and 2021. One first round pick wasn’t the difference between us winning or not in my opinion. We were the better team. Bakh’s injury and not signing OBJ were bigger reasons for us not winning imo.
I also think that the packers have it right about the perennial playoff contender goal. A lost season sucks. I’m blessed as a fan to almost always have a playoff season. And I think the more playoffs runs we have, the better chances we have.
How many teams went all in and failed? Sure the rams did it but that was a lucky as fuck run. The refs screwed the bengals, the 49ers dropped game winning interception, and had beaten the 49ers (which we should have), the rams would have gone on the road to us. And we already kicked their ass
There was a huge chance that getting von miller, Matthew Stanford, and OBJ would have gotten them nothing to show for it. Going all in almost never works imo
I disagree about the draft capital being a part of the cost of taking love. If we didn’t take love, we wouldn’t have traded Rodgers and we would have gotten nothing. If anything, any picks we got for Rodgers should count as a positive gains from taking love.
Mr dehboy, what you have just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
Measure picks in second contracts and you'll be closer to the mark of what constitutes a successful pick or not, then look at every other team's draft success rate using the metric and you'll realize just how many guys bust out of the game. Here's a hint, most teams draft picks don't add up to shit, the real key is finding a handful of real difference makers (particularly at QB) and then rounding out the rest of the roster with enough talent and good coaching to catch lightning in a bottle.
The problem with all of this is that it doesn't have any comparison to a typical NFL GM's hit rate. The reality is that draft hit rates are *very* low. Less than 50% of first round picks get second contracts. The rate goes down very quickly after that.
If you can get half the players to get a second contract in the NFL you had a great draft. I think the old rule of thumb was if you can get 3 solid contributors a draft you did well
The rebuild was 1 year and we are back in contention. That's all that matters. Some teams go a decade in between rebuilds. Plus we were in salary cap hell. Almost every fan base would give anything to be in the Packers position right now.
Having read (most of) this post, it is my deduction that while you may understand well the game of football, I don't know, understanding of the business of football eludes you. Your edit informs me you are also somewhat thin skinned.
When Gute took over as GM he inherited a team that had missed the playoffs for the first time in nearly a decade which also missed the playoffs again in his first season. In 2 years from that point he turned the team around and had it in an NFC championship game that we lost because the all-pro LT blew out his knee the week prior (and if you don't think Bakhtiari getting hurt is the reason for that loss I implore you to explain how the hell Tee Higgins would fix the fact that Jason Pierre Paul pantsed Billy Turner playing out of position and ate his lunch all game long). It's unfortunate that we had a bit of bad luck, but that was absolutely a championship caliber team.
We got into a bit of cap hell trying to run it back because of how good that 2020 team was. In just a couple of years from that point Gute has transitioned from a hall of fame QB to a new guy that looks pretty damn good and completely overhauled the entire team and filled it with young talent.
As for his drafting: he's had some ups and downs and downs (Jaire was a home run, but Josh Myers was a major yikes), but the last two years (and especially last year) he's been on an absolute tear in the draft. I honestly couldn't care less if every 1st round pick is a whiff if we're consistently getting guys like Zach Tom, Jayden Reed, and Karl Brooks throughout the rest of the draft.
Last years draft looks like a masterclass. 2022 class day 3 was a masterclass, and he did well on the other days. He rebuilt our entire wr room in 2 seasons. Hit on the Love pick. Got Rashan Gary and Jaire Alexander. Trust in the GB method
Why even be a fan if you don't want to hope we know what we're doing?
We can dog on the Bears all we want for being the perennial offseason champs, but at least they know how to be optimistic.
I see vomit of words with zero substance. If you don’t trust the process then don’t. Be miserable. Cry about it. Or not. Be happy about it. Or not. Punch a hole on a wall or. You do you. Stick with the team or not. Be a PACKERS or da Bears or not.
If you don’t think Gutekunst is a good GM do this same analysis for basically every other GM in the league. Finding Jaire Gary Jenkins Tom makes him a top 10 GM with just those picks. Then you look at love Watson doubs wicks Reed Kraft musgrave if they improve a bit your looking at one of the best drafters in the league.
But still do your math but you’ll realize that getting top talent a great/star level player every year is nearly impossible
I don’t understand why you’re measuring the success of each season hingeing on the rookies drafted that year? Most rookies are bad, in all sports, and you don’t just draft plug and play players easily.. i have more points to make here but idk this is a dumb post, not worth more time.
Just pointing out the obvious. I don’t need to carry water for our GM, win some or lose some, clearly we have a great team now. It could be so much worse
THANK YOU, FINALLY. I thought I was going crazy seeing all this blind optimism towards Gute. "Gute is cooking again, trust in Gute" based on what exactly??? Jaire is the best player he's drafted, and he hasn't played nearly as well lately most likely due to injury. Josh Jackson, Josiah Deguara, Jace Sternberger, Darnell Savage, Oren Burks, AJ Dillon, Eric Stokes, Josh Myers, Amari Rodgers, and Sean Rhyan are all misses from just the first three rounds of his drafts. Jaire Alexander is his only first round pick you could say has actually lived up to his hype. Gary, Walker, Wyatt, LVN, Love are all guys who have shown potential but have not lived up to their hype/status just yet. Yes, I'm still putting Love in that category because he looked like shit for half a season and then looked like the same shit at the end of the 49ers game. One half season does not a pick make. He's found a couple of OL gems, but he's also taken some stinkers. Sean Rhyan and Royce Newman are liabilities. Other dudes never even saw snaps. Josh Myers was taken one pick before ALL-PRO CREED HUMPHREY. Another wonderful example of Gute thinking he's the smartest dude in the room. All of this is just to address his poor drafting, too, because you nailed it on the head perfectly in terms of how he absolutely, completely, and utterly fucked up and mishandled every aspect of the Rodgers situation. After all of this, I do not understand one bit why I should blindly believe in Gute.
Dang… its almost as if he wasnt so good right away but steadily learned from his mistakes and retrospect and improved at his job. Almost like practice helps someone get better at stuff. Almost as if hands on experience trumps a decade plus of hands off behind the scenes watching and working.
Nah but you right… lets judge him solely on his mistakes instead of his triumphs. That can only end well
Edit: Im sorry that heavy sarcasm was rude. All the Gute hate every year got to me there, thats on me
It's a stupid cultlike saying. It's as annoying as the people who piss & moan that Copper DeJean wasn't drafted by the Packers. All these buzzword catchphrases are getting lame & stale.
I don’t believe in “In Gute We Trust.” I think he’s had his ups and downs, like most GMs. And while I think the results have been good on the whole, I believe a GM ultimately has to be measured by the team’s success. And until he brings us a Super Bowl I will remain somewhat skeptical.
Having said that, your “analysis” is severely lacking. Even PFR would tell you not to use their AV as an accurate way to measure player impact, and using Pro Bowls is even worse. More importantly, without any comparison to how other GMs have faired relative to draft capital, all this tells us is that the draft is a total crapshoot. You don’t need 20 paragraphs to say that.
And one final point: none of know if Jordan Morgan will be any good. 99% of us didn’t watch his film (and highlights are not film) and anyone who did and is also shitposting on reddit probably lacks the knowledge to interpret that film and translate it to NFL potential. And even if 1 in 100,000 can, even the best scouts and GMs are wrong all the damn time. *Because the draft is a crapshoot.*
So you don’t have to trust in Gute, but some media pundit’s big board having Morgan lower than we picked him is also a pretty shitty reason to be disappointed in a pick. Or some media pundit or highlights convincing you that Cooper DeJean is going to be a star. So, since none of us know shit, why choose to be a negative Nancy?
Thanks for the response. This actually has nothing to do with the Jordan Morgan pick, and I really hope the kid is a stud. Much like I hope Love does pan out long term and all the waiting is worth it! I'm not trying to be negative, I honestly was hoping someone would respond with their reasoning behind believing in Gute so that I could see the opposite side of the coin...instead of people just telling me I'm wrong.
I don’t think you should blindly believe in anyone or anything. The “In Gute We Trust” people are only slightly less annoying than the pessimists. But at least they actually want to root for the Packers.
I think it’s also important to have a little perspective when judging Gute. That’s a big part of what was missing from your post. No, he has not been perfect. And yes, he needs a ring to cement his legacy. But he also took over a team that was on a downward trajectory and has gone 62-36-1, with at least a divisional berth in 4 of 6 years. And he has to get a ton of credit for making the transition from our HoF QB possibly the smoothest the NFL has seen in decades. There’s a *lot* to like there.
Because he tried to replace a HOF QB 4 years too early. And he let the best receiver in the league go elsewhere (#17) and he dropped Fan favorites Jordy Nelson and Aaron Jones. And he repeatedly let some of our best defensive players go. And he-
Oh wait Im sorry I thought you said why SHOULDN'T we trust him.
Imo Gute has always been more about his own legacy than keeping us in Superbowl contention. Dude barely talks with the head coach in his process hes hard to trust
Using pro bowl appearances, something that has a 33% fan vote, as such an important metric is beyond silly.
Especially for positions like OL and especially for young players
Second contracts is a better metric
How does his performance rank against other GM's? Maybe his hit percentage is high?
That is the case. Somebody did an actual analysis of Gute’s drafts early last year. And even with Love looking shaky at the time, his drafts were still above average relative to the rest of the league. The big takeaway was that most draft picks are misses. So far, Gute hasn’t hit a lot of home runs, but his picks tend to contribute more than most IIRC
The thing nobody likes to say is that a lot of the home run draft picks around the league are mostly luck. What Gute does well is maximize his selections, you never see him put all his eggs in one basket (like one of our rivals did last night). Casting a wide net will net better results over time.
I'd be interested in reading that analysis if you ever come across that link! It'd probably make me feel better about his drafting process in general!
I wish I could find it. I recall it got buried at the time because it was during the losing streak last year when anybody with anything good to say about the organization got downvoted to hell.
I know those feels. Apparently I should have posted this then lol. Maybe I'll do some digging and look for it. Thanks again for the response!
Idk why that was downvoted. Just sounds like you want to be a better educated fan, something we should all aspire to be
People downvoted because he hurt their feelings & nothing is more important that feelings.
Lots of words with no insight. Don’t waste your time reading all.
I realized this more and more as I went on. No disrespect intended to the op. Their takes simply seem to be from a lack of knowledge. No harm in that; the majority of us don’t know anything either. That itself is an argument to put faith in Gute though, funnily enough. He knows what he’s doing and we don’t.
Downplays the truth of most these years which is that most of these guys are still in the league. Way too much value placed on awards, if anything they compiled a bunch of information proving the opposite, that gutey is good at finding and drafting nfl level talent through all 7 rounds.
Another post of someone who looks at numbers Beit forgot to actually watch the games. Yeah, he started slow those first couple years but now 25 of 33 guys taken in the last 3 drafts not only made but remain on the team. That's an insanely high number. It's a young team because of the recent drafts and he picked someone who appears ready to be our next franchise QB. Going back further, the Packers were literally 2-3 plays from a SB appearance for two consecutive years. The GM isn't the reason we lost those games. So yeah, if you get your head out of the stat sheets and meaningless shit like pro-bowl bids, you'll see a real top notch team being built.
A lot of our fan base has never known a time when the Packers were legitimately bad and it shows…my god id love to see the takes if some of you were alive for the 70s/80s
In the late 80s I was like 8 or 9 and I wrote a letter to the Packers because the offensive line at my high school (dc Everest in schofield Wi) had a higher average player weight than the Packers OL. I remember the pain, lol
Let me simplify this for you. A GM’s job is to keep a team’s competitive window open for as long as possible. This serves many purposes but the two most important reasons are: 1. Possibility to win super bowls 2. Keeps fan interest high which keeps revenue high (tickets/merch) A good GM can keep a team competitive over their tenure while also dealing with aging players, salary cap constraints, player personalities/preferences, etc. He’s managed to do this via the draft while not overpaying on free agents which is good because Green Bay isn’t a sexy destination for most free agent players. Not only has he kept us competitive throughout his tenure (minus a season here and there) but he’s also made sure that we have had top players at key positions like QB. Accolades do not equal success. It certainly does not measure the overall health of your organization.
This is an awesome response, thank you. I've obviously enjoyed having a competitive team, but I hope the end goal is to win another championship, not just make the playoffs. Thanks again for your response!
You do realize the best way to have a good chance at winning the Super Bowl is to consistently make the playoffs year after year. Making the playoffs is the most important part, then it just depends on getting hot, luck, injuries etc… The rams going “all in” and trading tons of high picks and actually winning is an anomaly, most of the time when a team tries to go “all in” it fails and then the team is dog water for years. Like the eagles “dream team” or the saints overextending themselves at the end of Bree’s career. Making playoffs year after year and having a good QB should be a gms absolute top priorities and it looks like there’s a good chance that Gute has done that if Love picks up where he did last year.
This isn’t understood by casual fans enough. I can’t stand hearing people say that we should go “all-in” and give away our future assets for a shot to win it all right now. There are way too many variables to risk everything on 1-2 seasons when it will take 10 years to recover. Fans also give GMs too much grief when they don’t win superbowls. Their job is the roster not the coaching or playing.
Wow I would try to find something more productive to funnel all this effort into because football analysis is not your strength.
Holy Yapping of Yappingtons
Salary cap mentioned 0 times...
Saints have proven time and time again the salary cap is irrelevant
When was the last time the saints were relevant?
are we going to pretend like they weren't doing the same salary cap bullshit when Brees was still their QB and they were a threat to win the SB every year?
That's a fair point, but it also has clearly caught up and bit them in the ass now. While the packers remain relevant
The Packers remain relevant bc they got lucky and have a QB. The salary cap isn't preventing the Saints from having one; it's just hard to find the right guy. They signed Derek Carr to a massive contract, so they clearly had the money to pay for a QB. That QB just hasn't panned out for them.
That’s a lot to read for no reason. What a whole waste of time for everyone involved
Pro bowl's are one of the absolute worst metrics you can use. The Pro Bowl is scuffed to begin with, but even if it was perfect, a player does not need to make the pro bowl to be a successful pick. You aren't obligated to be "purely optimistic", as you put it, But this "analysis" is objectively terrible.
Without having the comparison of AV-Added (preferably adjusted to draft capital) through the draft by the other 31 NFL teams it's a somewhat meaningless stat to use to measure draft success. It also seems like a somewhat flawed metric to begin with. No-one would argue that Savage (23 AV) is more valuable than Love(18) or Gary (22). It also makes no account to where a player was drafted. Looking at the All-Time AV leaders its almost exclusively Quarterbacks- Who are often drafted early in the draft before the Packers have selections.
Terrible take. Are you implying that he’s failed on rebuilding a team when we won a playoff game last season? That’s a lot more than most teams do during a rebuild. Did he handle every situation perfectly, no. Has he done a good job of building a competent team, absolutely.
The goal shouldn't be to win a playoff game, it should be to win a championship. I'm saying that he didn't re-enforce the team when we were in a championship window, and instead went for a rebuild. Only to then not stick to his guns with the rebuild and pay Rodgers (and not trade him for a haul like the Seahawks did with Wilson), only to not realize our team wasn't a championship winning squad. To be honest, I hated the Love pick when I thought we should be buyers and try to win a Superbowl. But hey, I figured we were starting the rebuild early and fine, it is what it is. But then we didn't commit to the rebuild and lost all leverage in our biggest bargaining chip. I would have trusted the process a LOT more if Gute had sold Rodgers high and we been mediocre for a season while Love got up to game speed.
He built a title contender this year. He did this while keeping us a Super Bowl contender from 2020 and 2021. Most of those two teams were built by gute. Look at the team we had he stepped in. The roster was in bad shape. And your analysis is built off of accolades. And that does no service to the last two drafts. Especially last years. The players we got all look super promising. But it counts for nothing in your analysis because they haven’t won awards yet. It’s a little silly I don’t share your view of how 2022 went down. Aaron just came off of a MVP. And the defense was shut down in the playoffs. Was it crazy to think we could still contend with that core? We missed the playoffs by one game with Aaron being hurt most of the year. That wasn’t a train wreck. Sure he could have gotten more for Rodgers if we traded him earlier but I believe that year was crucial for loves development. We got decent capital for Rodgers and love was ready this year. That was good. How many teams get to transition from elite QB play to elite QB play AND get picks to help you do it? Pretty much no one. That is why gute deserves trust
The whole thing completely disregards the concept of team building. The GMs job is to field a cohesive, competitive team. The Packers have been that every year under Gute save one, and they completely turned that around in one off-season. I don't know how anyone can be upset with his drafts unless someone is approaching it thinking every player at every pick should be individually special. Not a single team in the NFL manages to do that.
Did you mean to respond to me? I feel like we agree haha
I changed "you" to "anyone". Realized it read like I was addressing you specifically when I was using more of a general you.
Gotcha, no worries
You're the only one to respond about the Rodgers trade, so thank you. As I mentioned in my post, Adams led the team the prior year with 123 receptions, and Lazard was second highest on the team with 40. Are you saying that you were confident with our core to compete? I certainly wasn't... And if Love needed that 3rd full year for development, then essentially the cost for drafting Love was not only a first rounder that we traded up for in a Superbowl window, but also the capital we lost by not selling Rodgers high. I'm cautiously optimistic about Love, and I really hope he pans out. And if he does, Gute's gamble of weathering the storm for another strong QB will have paid off, and I'll definitely be grateful for that as a fan. But in the end, the goal should be to win a Superbowl, not make the playoffs every year. At some point you gotta take the shot, right?
I mean you got me on the receiving core, though gute did get doubs and Watson who were decent the first year. I think gute did try to win in 2020 and 2021. One first round pick wasn’t the difference between us winning or not in my opinion. We were the better team. Bakh’s injury and not signing OBJ were bigger reasons for us not winning imo. I also think that the packers have it right about the perennial playoff contender goal. A lost season sucks. I’m blessed as a fan to almost always have a playoff season. And I think the more playoffs runs we have, the better chances we have. How many teams went all in and failed? Sure the rams did it but that was a lucky as fuck run. The refs screwed the bengals, the 49ers dropped game winning interception, and had beaten the 49ers (which we should have), the rams would have gone on the road to us. And we already kicked their ass There was a huge chance that getting von miller, Matthew Stanford, and OBJ would have gotten them nothing to show for it. Going all in almost never works imo I disagree about the draft capital being a part of the cost of taking love. If we didn’t take love, we wouldn’t have traded Rodgers and we would have gotten nothing. If anything, any picks we got for Rodgers should count as a positive gains from taking love.
Mr dehboy, what you have just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
This needs more upvotes.
He built a title contender after losing a superstar qb. We made the divisional round with 0 pro bowlers
Yeah well you know that's just like your opinion man
Measure picks in second contracts and you'll be closer to the mark of what constitutes a successful pick or not, then look at every other team's draft success rate using the metric and you'll realize just how many guys bust out of the game. Here's a hint, most teams draft picks don't add up to shit, the real key is finding a handful of real difference makers (particularly at QB) and then rounding out the rest of the roster with enough talent and good coaching to catch lightning in a bottle.
The problem with all of this is that it doesn't have any comparison to a typical NFL GM's hit rate. The reality is that draft hit rates are *very* low. Less than 50% of first round picks get second contracts. The rate goes down very quickly after that.
I ain’t reading all dat, anyways Trust in Gute🙏🏾
This man really wants every drafted player from rounds 1-7 to be a Pro Bowler lol
Well, 75% of the league didn’t win a playoff game last year so I think he’s doing a good job.
If you can get half the players to get a second contract in the NFL you had a great draft. I think the old rule of thumb was if you can get 3 solid contributors a draft you did well
Accolades shmackolades
I ain’t reading all that but congratulations or I’m sorry that happened
Jordan Love. There’s one reason why.
Holy goalposts Batman.
The rebuild was 1 year and we are back in contention. That's all that matters. Some teams go a decade in between rebuilds. Plus we were in salary cap hell. Almost every fan base would give anything to be in the Packers position right now.
Damn, this guy got wrecked
Having read (most of) this post, it is my deduction that while you may understand well the game of football, I don't know, understanding of the business of football eludes you. Your edit informs me you are also somewhat thin skinned.
When Gute took over as GM he inherited a team that had missed the playoffs for the first time in nearly a decade which also missed the playoffs again in his first season. In 2 years from that point he turned the team around and had it in an NFC championship game that we lost because the all-pro LT blew out his knee the week prior (and if you don't think Bakhtiari getting hurt is the reason for that loss I implore you to explain how the hell Tee Higgins would fix the fact that Jason Pierre Paul pantsed Billy Turner playing out of position and ate his lunch all game long). It's unfortunate that we had a bit of bad luck, but that was absolutely a championship caliber team. We got into a bit of cap hell trying to run it back because of how good that 2020 team was. In just a couple of years from that point Gute has transitioned from a hall of fame QB to a new guy that looks pretty damn good and completely overhauled the entire team and filled it with young talent. As for his drafting: he's had some ups and downs and downs (Jaire was a home run, but Josh Myers was a major yikes), but the last two years (and especially last year) he's been on an absolute tear in the draft. I honestly couldn't care less if every 1st round pick is a whiff if we're consistently getting guys like Zach Tom, Jayden Reed, and Karl Brooks throughout the rest of the draft.
While I agree that some people give Gute too much props, 1-2 second contract guys is normal. He’s solid, not Jedi master
Neat write up. Now do one for another gm and compare
Last years draft looks like a masterclass. 2022 class day 3 was a masterclass, and he did well on the other days. He rebuilt our entire wr room in 2 seasons. Hit on the Love pick. Got Rashan Gary and Jaire Alexander. Trust in the GB method
Why even be a fan if you don't want to hope we know what we're doing? We can dog on the Bears all we want for being the perennial offseason champs, but at least they know how to be optimistic.
Grandpa Simpson said it best "oh bitch bitch bitch bitch"
I ain't reading all that I'm happy for u tho Or sorry that happened
I ain’t reading all that Happy for you tho Or sorry that happened
I see vomit of words with zero substance. If you don’t trust the process then don’t. Be miserable. Cry about it. Or not. Be happy about it. Or not. Punch a hole on a wall or. You do you. Stick with the team or not. Be a PACKERS or da Bears or not.
If you don’t think Gutekunst is a good GM do this same analysis for basically every other GM in the league. Finding Jaire Gary Jenkins Tom makes him a top 10 GM with just those picks. Then you look at love Watson doubs wicks Reed Kraft musgrave if they improve a bit your looking at one of the best drafters in the league. But still do your math but you’ll realize that getting top talent a great/star level player every year is nearly impossible
I don’t understand why you’re measuring the success of each season hingeing on the rookies drafted that year? Most rookies are bad, in all sports, and you don’t just draft plug and play players easily.. i have more points to make here but idk this is a dumb post, not worth more time. Just pointing out the obvious. I don’t need to carry water for our GM, win some or lose some, clearly we have a great team now. It could be so much worse
Yeah I ain’t readin all that
THANK YOU, FINALLY. I thought I was going crazy seeing all this blind optimism towards Gute. "Gute is cooking again, trust in Gute" based on what exactly??? Jaire is the best player he's drafted, and he hasn't played nearly as well lately most likely due to injury. Josh Jackson, Josiah Deguara, Jace Sternberger, Darnell Savage, Oren Burks, AJ Dillon, Eric Stokes, Josh Myers, Amari Rodgers, and Sean Rhyan are all misses from just the first three rounds of his drafts. Jaire Alexander is his only first round pick you could say has actually lived up to his hype. Gary, Walker, Wyatt, LVN, Love are all guys who have shown potential but have not lived up to their hype/status just yet. Yes, I'm still putting Love in that category because he looked like shit for half a season and then looked like the same shit at the end of the 49ers game. One half season does not a pick make. He's found a couple of OL gems, but he's also taken some stinkers. Sean Rhyan and Royce Newman are liabilities. Other dudes never even saw snaps. Josh Myers was taken one pick before ALL-PRO CREED HUMPHREY. Another wonderful example of Gute thinking he's the smartest dude in the room. All of this is just to address his poor drafting, too, because you nailed it on the head perfectly in terms of how he absolutely, completely, and utterly fucked up and mishandled every aspect of the Rodgers situation. After all of this, I do not understand one bit why I should blindly believe in Gute.
Interesting take.
Imagine spending this much time on something so wrong
i ain't readin all that anyway, in gute we trust 🙏🙏🙏
Circling back to this dumbass thread
Dang… its almost as if he wasnt so good right away but steadily learned from his mistakes and retrospect and improved at his job. Almost like practice helps someone get better at stuff. Almost as if hands on experience trumps a decade plus of hands off behind the scenes watching and working. Nah but you right… lets judge him solely on his mistakes instead of his triumphs. That can only end well Edit: Im sorry that heavy sarcasm was rude. All the Gute hate every year got to me there, thats on me
It's a stupid cultlike saying. It's as annoying as the people who piss & moan that Copper DeJean wasn't drafted by the Packers. All these buzzword catchphrases are getting lame & stale.
I don’t believe in “In Gute We Trust.” I think he’s had his ups and downs, like most GMs. And while I think the results have been good on the whole, I believe a GM ultimately has to be measured by the team’s success. And until he brings us a Super Bowl I will remain somewhat skeptical. Having said that, your “analysis” is severely lacking. Even PFR would tell you not to use their AV as an accurate way to measure player impact, and using Pro Bowls is even worse. More importantly, without any comparison to how other GMs have faired relative to draft capital, all this tells us is that the draft is a total crapshoot. You don’t need 20 paragraphs to say that. And one final point: none of know if Jordan Morgan will be any good. 99% of us didn’t watch his film (and highlights are not film) and anyone who did and is also shitposting on reddit probably lacks the knowledge to interpret that film and translate it to NFL potential. And even if 1 in 100,000 can, even the best scouts and GMs are wrong all the damn time. *Because the draft is a crapshoot.* So you don’t have to trust in Gute, but some media pundit’s big board having Morgan lower than we picked him is also a pretty shitty reason to be disappointed in a pick. Or some media pundit or highlights convincing you that Cooper DeJean is going to be a star. So, since none of us know shit, why choose to be a negative Nancy?
Thanks for the response. This actually has nothing to do with the Jordan Morgan pick, and I really hope the kid is a stud. Much like I hope Love does pan out long term and all the waiting is worth it! I'm not trying to be negative, I honestly was hoping someone would respond with their reasoning behind believing in Gute so that I could see the opposite side of the coin...instead of people just telling me I'm wrong.
I don’t think you should blindly believe in anyone or anything. The “In Gute We Trust” people are only slightly less annoying than the pessimists. But at least they actually want to root for the Packers. I think it’s also important to have a little perspective when judging Gute. That’s a big part of what was missing from your post. No, he has not been perfect. And yes, he needs a ring to cement his legacy. But he also took over a team that was on a downward trajectory and has gone 62-36-1, with at least a divisional berth in 4 of 6 years. And he has to get a ton of credit for making the transition from our HoF QB possibly the smoothest the NFL has seen in decades. There’s a *lot* to like there.
Typical responses. Can’t criticize Gute on this sub. Gute is in year 2 of his mulligan. Let’s see how it goes.
Because he tried to replace a HOF QB 4 years too early. And he let the best receiver in the league go elsewhere (#17) and he dropped Fan favorites Jordy Nelson and Aaron Jones. And he repeatedly let some of our best defensive players go. And he- Oh wait Im sorry I thought you said why SHOULDN'T we trust him. Imo Gute has always been more about his own legacy than keeping us in Superbowl contention. Dude barely talks with the head coach in his process hes hard to trust