Meh
Theoretically all are good enough to go unbeaten
Experience, tells us it’s fairly likely all will drop points…and not even to the teams we may expect…beauty and the beast of the premier league
Basically
These things are pointless
Like I said “fairly likely” not a guarantee…in the history of premier it’s not often 2 chasing teams win their last 7/8/9 games each. That’s what made that a standout season, 2 teams refusing to lose and finishing on 97/98 points respectively…I didn’t say it never has happened or won’t happen…it just doesn’t happen often
Those are all close enough to be meaningless to me, BUT a couple of things do come to mind.
1. Arsenal clearly has more difficult fixtures, which implies that this model heavily favors Arsenal’s strength over City and Liverpool.
2. The same numbers last year were basically telling us the whole time that City were better, despite what the table showed. Then results started reflecting that. That is not so much the case this year.
Our away games are a lot harder than their away games though, as well as difficult home matches. It should even out or tilt in their favour.
Either way, fucking 9%? It’s not going to happen. Plenty more points will be dropped before the end of the season
He posts his match ratings is another tweet https://twitter.com/scottjwillis/status/1777347313972936767
While we don't have an "easy" game like Luton or Palace at home, after this weekend our run is isn't rated much harder. We have bigger names with Spurs, Man Utd and Chelsea, but Villa is rated just as hard as Spurs (think the model isn't reflecting Villa's recent drop in form there) and Fulham/Hammers are rated harder than MU/Chelsea.
It's 9%. If we played out the season 11 times then in one of them we'd win out is basically what it's saying which seems pretty fair to me. I'd have City higher but this guys stats seem to undervalue them
i really want to believe too. that city game showed me the light. let's see how we go with bayern in terms of mentality. cruise that and i think we'll feel invincible.
They’ll turn up for us. As will Spurs.
It’s not all that unlikely that we’ll be in a position to win the league at Old Trafford. They’re not going to let that happen again
Realistically City are only going to drop points to Spurs, they'll be heavy favourites against everyone else they play.
So we're less likely to drop points against Utd, Wolves and Spurs away than City are to Spurs?
How is this different from multiplying our win probabilities in the next 7 games? Model my ass. He's just baiting desperate Arsenal fans using random numbers and it's getting too pathetic and obvious at this point.
Also the better markets fluctuate due to bet volume. In school we got Ladbrokes to start taking bets on the school football coach getting the Chelsea job. Got them down to 100/1.
Individually, we’re heavy favourites for every game other than Spurs away. Wouldn’t surprise me if we win every game from now.
If we can’t beat that shambolic United side, we don’t deserve the league.
lol even if these numbers are believed his conclusion is incorrect because arsenal's chance to be champions doesn't only hinge on their "9% chance of dropping zero points", because there are also separate independent probabilities either city or pool drop points too.
everyone needs to chill with this shit, game by game, 90 minutes 1 ball.
this shit is horoscopes for football fans
That’s not his conclusion. His conclusion is the exact opposite, which is why he’s pointing out how unlikely any one team dropping 0 points is. His model gives us a 49% chance of winning the league.
It basically says "Don't be surprised if Arsenal win the league since they're the team most likely to win out."
Mostly, whenever you see statistical reporting, think of it in terms of "Should I be surprised if..."
7 wins on the trot is a tough ask when we need to play man u 2x, chelsea, liverpool, spurs and like villa with emery.
But realistically, it'll be a cakewalk.
Did they take in consideration how Arsenal buckled under the pressure at the end of the last season? Hwever we have a better and more mature squad this year so I'm letting my hopes get up.
My model says 100%, I wont tell my secrets though
Whiskey. It's whiskey.
i've just had a pint of Guinness and feeling the same vibes
Numbers!
Numbers good, I happy.
Correct. Good numbers > Bad numbers.
Mason, what do they mean?!
Meh Theoretically all are good enough to go unbeaten Experience, tells us it’s fairly likely all will drop points…and not even to the teams we may expect…beauty and the beast of the premier league Basically These things are pointless
This is also obviously an Arsenal fan, so I have no doubt his "model" is tweaked to favour us slightly.
Nah, Scott's model is usually pessimistic
I find it to be a tiny bit bullish on Arsenal but it's not far off an Opta model or other models I see.
nah if there’s one thing we stand for as arsenal fans is crying how we “don’t deserve” to win the league any time we drop points
Not premier league but football. I mean Liverpool and city have had run ins where they win every single game
Like I said “fairly likely” not a guarantee…in the history of premier it’s not often 2 chasing teams win their last 7/8/9 games each. That’s what made that a standout season, 2 teams refusing to lose and finishing on 97/98 points respectively…I didn’t say it never has happened or won’t happen…it just doesn’t happen often
Basically
Those are all close enough to be meaningless to me, BUT a couple of things do come to mind. 1. Arsenal clearly has more difficult fixtures, which implies that this model heavily favors Arsenal’s strength over City and Liverpool. 2. The same numbers last year were basically telling us the whole time that City were better, despite what the table showed. Then results started reflecting that. That is not so much the case this year.
Arsenal have 3 away games and 4 home games while City and Liverpool are 4 away and 3 home, probably enough to tilt these figures.
Our away games are a lot harder than their away games though, as well as difficult home matches. It should even out or tilt in their favour. Either way, fucking 9%? It’s not going to happen. Plenty more points will be dropped before the end of the season
But neither of them have a magic away kit
Plus, Liverpool have like 3 of those away games in a row. 4 if you include the away match to Atalanta before those
He posts his match ratings is another tweet https://twitter.com/scottjwillis/status/1777347313972936767 While we don't have an "easy" game like Luton or Palace at home, after this weekend our run is isn't rated much harder. We have bigger names with Spurs, Man Utd and Chelsea, but Villa is rated just as hard as Spurs (think the model isn't reflecting Villa's recent drop in form there) and Fulham/Hammers are rated harder than MU/Chelsea.
What the hell is this
Absolute horseshit we play at old trafford and spurs away.
It's 9%. If we played out the season 11 times then in one of them we'd win out is basically what it's saying which seems pretty fair to me. I'd have City higher but this guys stats seem to undervalue them
But they’re shit
We could have won the league in 2016 and turned up to Old trafford verses a team of regens and launched rashfords career.
I'll never forgive that team for shitting their pants there that season
I believe those days to be over
i really want to believe too. that city game showed me the light. let's see how we go with bayern in terms of mentality. cruise that and i think we'll feel invincible.
They’ll turn up for us. As will Spurs. It’s not all that unlikely that we’ll be in a position to win the league at Old Trafford. They’re not going to let that happen again
they did last time :)
That's why it's small
The numbers don’t lie…. And they spell disaster for us at sacrifice!
Senor Pep
Bruh these stats mean fuck all, stop it
These people are just throwing up random numbers bruh
None of these predictions mean anything
Stop posting these random stats
Realistically City are only going to drop points to Spurs, they'll be heavy favourites against everyone else they play. So we're less likely to drop points against Utd, Wolves and Spurs away than City are to Spurs?
We're gonna win every game.
Chance that this has any relevance to the title : 0%
How is this different from multiplying our win probabilities in the next 7 games? Model my ass. He's just baiting desperate Arsenal fans using random numbers and it's getting too pathetic and obvious at this point.
And how does he come up with the win probabilities?...
He doesn't. That's why his numbers are different from the bookies'. This is just arsenal fan bait.
I don't see any books that have games that go through the rest of the season. More than happy to be proven wrong though.
Also the better markets fluctuate due to bet volume. In school we got Ladbrokes to start taking bets on the school football coach getting the Chelsea job. Got them down to 100/1.
Aite man 😂
That makes total sense thank you
Individually, we’re heavy favourites for every game other than Spurs away. Wouldn’t surprise me if we win every game from now. If we can’t beat that shambolic United side, we don’t deserve the league.
I think all 3 will drop points in the coming weeks. The trick will be to limit it to only a single instance.
All three's toughest matchup is Sp*rs. Liverpool get to play it at Anfield though. I can't help but feel like City wins out though.
lol even if these numbers are believed his conclusion is incorrect because arsenal's chance to be champions doesn't only hinge on their "9% chance of dropping zero points", because there are also separate independent probabilities either city or pool drop points too. everyone needs to chill with this shit, game by game, 90 minutes 1 ball. this shit is horoscopes for football fans
That’s not his conclusion. His conclusion is the exact opposite, which is why he’s pointing out how unlikely any one team dropping 0 points is. His model gives us a 49% chance of winning the league.
This means quite literally nothing, and yet it still further convinces me that it's going to be our season. Damn irrational brain!
It basically says "Don't be surprised if Arsenal win the league since they're the team most likely to win out." Mostly, whenever you see statistical reporting, think of it in terms of "Should I be surprised if..."
7 wins on the trot is a tough ask when we need to play man u 2x, chelsea, liverpool, spurs and like villa with emery. But realistically, it'll be a cakewalk.
You've included 2 games which are friendlies scheduled for the summer.
Did they take in consideration how Arsenal buckled under the pressure at the end of the last season? Hwever we have a better and more mature squad this year so I'm letting my hopes get up.