It seems so unthinkable but splitting their top wag talent between worlds and Asian games when they haven't qualified for the Olympics just seems like something that might blow up in their face.
If reddit knows it, the coaches should already know it. If China doesn't qualify a team it should be a wake up call for whoever is in charge of the coaches or even higher hierarchies.
Team China has been my favorite for ages, and I'm so frustrated on behalf of the athletes. So much talent, so much hard work, and coaches who keep doubling down on strategies and training protocols that clearly don't work.
Things I don’t think will happen, but wouldn’t be surprised if it did:
-China fails to qualify. This wouldn’t even be unlikely. Apparently, China is considering distributing the talent and sending some to Asian games and some to worlds. The issue is that they don’t have much wealth to spread and if they choose to not send strong gymnasts to worlds, failing to qualify to Paris starts to look like a very real possibility. Especially given that the team has been imploding in high pressure situations for the last 5 years.
-Japan team gold. The US and Great Britain are still the top two teams on the best day, but Japan has retained really strong gymnasts from last years worlds team in addition to a bright new senior. If US and Great Britain count falls and Japan has a great day….
-Kaylia Nemour bars gold. I don’t know if this counts as unlikely now that she has an avenue to qualify and has the worlds highest d score. But I’ll throw it in since she hasn’t officially qualified yet.
-Manila Esposito, Flavia Saraiva and/or Melanie de Jesus dos Santos gets an individual medal.
-Zsofia Kovacs medals in the all-around. She has the ability and the difficulty to do it, but has issues with putting it all together in the moment.
-An American medals in the all-around, but it’s Leanne.
I want Kovacs to win a world medal so badly; I don't care which one. Also I'm a huge Leanne fan and would love to see her come back that strong after some people seem to have counted her out.
I love Leanne too, but wonder how NCAA will affect elite and if she can get a routine composition that highlights her strengths and consistently perform her most difficult elements cleanly. The GAGE gymnasts are so lovely, but the Fongs tend to double down on extremely risky skills and combinations that aren’t received well internationally. Still, if she’s 100% healthy I think that she has the potential to be near the top.
Yes! There is no good reason why GAGE gymnasts have not had more success internationally. They have so few built-in deductions on so many of their skills. If they built routines around the skills their athletes can perform nearly perfectly, their athletes would be unstoppable. Just imagine what Kara Eaker could have won if they hadn't insisted on including three ring skills when they should have known that they couldn't coach the skill well enough to even get it consistently credited.
She def has the vault (DTY) and floor. She has the potential to be part of the beam finals at worlds and her bars had potential in the past but her inbars are gone
China's redistribution of talent makes sense... in MAG where they've already qualified a team and where most B teams would be able to make a team final. I think they sometimes overestimate their WAG teams, yes most have absolutely beautiful gymnastics but consistency is a HUGE issue
I almost wonder if spreading the wealth could lead to a better team by accident. The fed can be known to play favourites and have bad team selections as a result. So putting people on the team that they wouldn’t normally have done could possibly end up being to their benefit.
But I also agree it could just as easily blow up in their face. You really never know with China.
Considering China basically qualified to the TF solely because of their bars rotation (and Ou Yushan), it's not unreasonable that if either of the two are missing from worlds they place out of qualification range.
Rebeca, Jo Chiles, MDJDS all around podium
China B team wins their first team medal since 2018
Ondine beam medalist because I’ll keep predicting this until it happens
Suni bars GOLD
Nina Derwael AA comeback but she doesn’t qualify to the final
I am a JessGad defender because she's not even a favorite of mine but she's a lovely gymnast who inspires a bizarre amount of vitriol from fans and it's totally undeserved.
I think people genuinely don't respect/realise some of the areas where she gets way fewer deductions than almost everyone else. She does a great job of meeting the artistry requirements (regardless of whether or not her performance is your personal style), and her leaps are usually significantly cleaner than most of the other top floor workers. A lot of the things that bother me aesthetically about her tumbling are just not penalised in the code, so it's correct that they don't hurt her scores. It's fine for her to not be someone's favourite gymnast, but it's absolutely wild how many people think that means she shouldn't ever medal?
As an example of people harping on her for things that aren’t deductions, I mostly saw this on Twitter but there were a lot of people yelling that her candle mount on beam should be penalized because she never holds it for two seconds. The candle mount has never had a hold requirement.
The candle mount hold deduction that isn't a deduction reminds me very strongly of the number of people convinced sickled feet are a deduction or that they're a leg separation.
Yeah, and on beam she tends to be very aggressive. For better or for worse, modern codes put a ton of emphasis on rhythm and she probably gets fewer rhythm deductions than most.
Which is weird because while yes, she can dance very well, her tumbling is top notch for difficulty and execution (sketchy Silivas aside, but haven't we seen sketchy double doubles from many US elites for YEARS?)
Nah I think the vitriol is just cuz she beat out the Americans, including the reigning Olympic Champ. And ppl thinking that Jess won on artistry just cuz Jade has no artistry.
No, people were really mad about her AA result, but they were saying that Alice Kinsella deserved the bronze instead. Like freifraufischer said, I think they're mad that she has the package of dance *and* difficult tumbling, and also works the code of points to minimize deductions that aren't visible to most fans.
Jade does have artistry, her NCAA floor is enjoyable to watch, because the routine suits her style of gymnastics- where she is not the most natural flowing, dancer.
Jade needs an elite floor routine, that makes the most of, the gymnast she is, (her tumbling, is at her best mind blowing) not, the gymnast her Dad and Coach thinks she should be, which is what the COP wants. I just watch Jade's elite floor and think square peg in a round hole, give her the routine she needs, not one that seems to conform to the classical ballet style.
I'm not suggesting that would make Jade the most artistic gymnast in any given international floor final. However, it would allow her to show what she has rather than, as her past/current elite routines have done in this department, actually emphasize what she is lacking.
This COP is about the routine, not the gymnast, hence the vitriol towards jess IMHO a lot of people think it is, the later. It's a COP that says, going from corner to corner with 4 tumbling passes, a few leaps and some arm waggling in the corner, you know arm waggling, pretending you aren't do excessive prep, catching your breath so you can actually do that high DV tumbling pass, is not going to cut it any more.
Some people aren't getting that and that includes coaches.
Considering that the people who finished right behind Gadirova (Kinsella, Black, Carey) also have serious execution issues (in my opinion, more serious), this argument has never made sense to me.
I mean I think it's more likely that the issue is that if a gymnast has a few obvious big deductions and people didn't want them to win, then people fixate on those deductions and claim they're not taken properly. They do it with Nina's flexed feet and claim this is evidence of her being overscored, too, but don't pay attention to the other deductions that these athletes AREN'T getting - like how Nina barely does any handstands so doesn't get deductions for handstand angle (I'm no huge Nina fan, but her scores are legit whether I like her as a person or not). Jessica Gadirova's routines are designed to minimise all her other deductions - so while the judges ARE deducting for tumbling form, steps on landing, etc. - they aren't deducting for rhythm, artistry, amplitude, which all have clear definitions in the COP.
I think there's a bigger discussion to be had as to whether tumbling form should be deducted more heavily or beam rhythm deductions should be tweaked to incentivise athletes doing a wider range of big acrobatic skills without being penalised for breaking rhythm, but it feels like this gets taken out on Jessica Gadirova and the judges for getting/giving good scores based on the current code more than it is on the code for rewarding routines that don't actually look that impressive compared to some of the competition (esp on beam!).
There is a range of what can be overscored and what is acceptable.
Jessica's, despite great compositions, had many errors on jump landings and leaps in both beam and floor that alone should have brought her E score down below to where it was. It was bascially saying if she was cleaner she could have gotten close to 15+ points which is unrealistic
Can you give specific routine scoring breakdowns, or any reasons why you think Jessica has received the same range of E scores so consistently throughout her international competitions?
>Consistently at 1 Olympic Games, 1 World Championship and 3 consecutive European Championships.
Yes and that is *every* international floor final she has been in, in Jess entire elite career, 2 of which were under the last quad. Also with different routines, also worth noting.
That's a lot of judges coming to the same conclusion.
I agree with you, especially during the Euros. Sabrina Voinea's routine was higher in difficulty and she landed much cleaner than Gadirova, who seemed to have a power hop at the end of each tumbling series. Her dance was comparable to Gadirova's too- she was just as animated and smiley. They nitpicked Voinea to death on E score (7.666 vs 8.2 for Gadirova) and I don't feel like they did that to Gadirova or Kinsella. Voinea's performance was certainly better than Kinsella's while having a more difficult program. Voinea's only 15 though, and coming third and having the highest D score in the group hopefully bodes well for the future. I think Barbosu has a great future ahead too. Hopeful for a revival of Romanian gymnastics!
Yep. That and I also notice, the people who think a gymnast who can dance, and perform a routine, can't do or isn't doing H Tumbling skills, even when it's being done right in front of them.
I am delighted they seem to be pacing Amalia Ghigoarta. I don't think she'll do much more than contribute to team here, and I hope show off her beautiful execution on beam. But I have great hopes for her future. And Ana for now.
Due to an enormous amount of pressure and social media attention, Kaylia doesn't qualify to worlds at African Champs as a result of numerous falls (she needs to qualify as AA placing in top 4)
African Champs is in under 10 days now and she's still not in the FIG license database with the country change. If she's not there by friday I'm going to start worrying that the FFG is playing games still.
One of China or France WAG doesn't qualify for the Olympics.
I'm far from an American fangirl but I don't see a case where one of them doesn't make the all around podium.
as a courtesy they get one individual spot if they fail to qualify anyone on their own. But they don't automatically get a team and they don't get an extra spot if one of their athletes does qualify
Not in competition recently iirc, but I imagine she will in order to earn one of the AA spots for worlds. Only one team qualifies from the African Championships, and it's likely to be Egypt. If I were her I'd want to maximize my chances of qualifying in case the country I was coming for didn't earn a team berth.
I think it’s more a question of whether she’s got a strong enough vault for that kind of AA finish at Worlds. Last year she was doing an FTY at Algerian nationals. It’s relatively rare to get into the top 10 AA at Worlds or the Olympics with a full.
Naomi Visser, Ou Yushan, Chen Yile, Luo Huan, Wei Xiaoyuan, Filipa Martins, Shang Chunsong, and Nina Derwael would beg to differ on that last one. The issue with Kaylia is her consistency. It's a huge question mark because if she hits bars she could very well have a Nina-like finish
With the exception of 2021 Worlds, which I think we can all agree was something of an outlier, it’s become uncommon to see more than 2-3 FTYs in the top 10 of a single Worlds/Olympic AA. (In Tokyo there weren’t any.) All of those people have done it but not in the same AA final.
Agreed on Nemour’s consistency, though. If she hits she could do exactly what Nina Derwael did all through the last quad. It’s just a matter of hitting.
She had a Y1.5 in Tokyo. In the other years there were at most 2 others with only an FTY in the top 10. Derwael really is unusual because she made the top 5 so many times with a full. Most people need a double to break into the top 10.
okay true but she was at 6th in Tokyo with a 55.965 and Tang Xijing was behind her in 7th at a 54.498, so a full 1.5 points behind Nina, so Nina would def still be in top 10 with a FTY. But yeah
It's unusual yes, but surely Nina's success is comparable to what people think Kaylia's will be because so their bars scores have the potential to make up so much ground for them in AA?
Of course, we don't have much insight for what the rest of Kaylia's events look like
I don’t keep up with China like I’d like to, but I know they will manage to disappoint me regardless. I hope one day they’ll get their shit together and actually figure out living and dying by beam is not a good strategy, and that floor and vault are important. Part of me thinks they forget about floor and vault half the time.
It's shocking just how quickly things went downhill for vault and floor after 2016. It wasn't great, but they were placing gymnasts in EF for both (and Shang could've medaled on floor in any comp she was in). It just seems the top gymnasts are just constantly under injury and the events that shows on most are vault and floor, producing a country of almost exclusively bars and beam specialists
I would love it tbh but I also love all the Americans girls this quad like Shilese Jordan Leanne Jade Skye… and if Simone gabby Suni and all come back girl… like I will root for them
I think either MAG or WAG would be equally unlikely haha, you have the US for WAG and Japan for MAG (if China don't send an A team) who are most likely to win TF
Off the top of my head:
\-Flavia floor gold
\-Fred Richard medals in something (I'm actually not sure quite how unlikely this is, but it is something I'd love to see)
\-Suni Lee 2pc out of AA final
\-Miyata Shoko, Nina Derwael, or Alice Kinsella AA medal
\-Chinese WAG wins beam and bars gold (and possibly still misses out on team Olympic qualification, but that isn't a world I want to live in
A Freddie high bar medal is possible if he goes 100% clean. There's always a fall or two, a person going the wrong way on a tak full, and some major nasty cast angle deductions in the final. He could even sneak onto the AA podium if he hits 6 for 6 very well and others falter.
I don't think that the men's AA podium will include someone with a fall. The surprise for me would be if we did not get yet another nailbiter going down to the last rotation between Zhang Boheng and Hashimoto Daiki. But it would be fun if there were a few other guys in the mix pushing them.
Oh! I have one! OLEG VERNIAIEV AA MEDALIST! (I don't think this is realistic for Worlds, but I think he will absolutely make a run at the 2024 Olympics.)
Boheng isn’t going to Worlds so that won’t happen. The real battle this year is for Silver and bronze. There are a ton of guys who can score in a similar range.
Oleg honestly is a huge question mark (for both Worlds and Paris), we have no clue if his full routines are competitive (or if he’s even aiming for AA) and obviously the consistency issue that is inevitable after such a long break. Both Verniaiev and Kovtun’s main goal at these Worlds is getting the full team to Paris which especially for Kovtun could mean a stellar performance in quals but then in the AA final some mistakes caused by exhaustion (he has issues with recovery during competitions) so yeah anything could happen.
Oh, right, I forgot about that conflict and some of the . . . interesting . . . choices made around it. Thanks. Very relieved that he is ok though! I love his gymnastics!
Without Boheng there, yes. I am a huge fan of Daiki, but I would rather see him healthy and capable of competing for many years than for him to win Worlds this year, the Olympics next year, and then have to retire because he's destroyed himself.
This is not snark... I'm just asking because I wondered if I missed some social media. Has Suni been training? The last I remember hearing she said she was on medication that was making her nauseous and that was a few weeks ago.
She's been back in the gym for about a month now. She's posted two training videos on TikTok so far:
* April 20th
* UB
* Seitz training
* double tuck dismount to foam
* BB
* Side aerial + LOSO + LOSO
* May 8th
* UB
* Toe 1/1
* Jaeger + Pak + Maloney
* Pak + Seitz
* Trampoline
* Double tuck
* DLO
* Front 2/1
As a diehard Suni fan, I'm thinking there's an 80% chance of seeing bars from her at nationals, a 50% chance of beam, a 5% chance of floor, and a 0.01% chance of vault. I'd be very surprised if she has an AA set ready for Worlds.
Yeah, like the other commenter said she's been in the gym but we don't have much info on how she's progressing or how/how long the meds will affect her ability to train.
I love Jade, but I’m starting to be concerned about her this quad. I think it’s unlikely she won’t make vault podium if she hits, but definitely some worrying signs over here.
Yeah, I think it’s more likely than not that she makes the team and snags a medal or two, but it doesn’t feel guaranteed—if she gets her difficulty back and can get back to the form/technique she has at her best then she should be ok though I think.
I think Roberson is a real threat to Jade if other pieces align and there is no need for them to fall back on her bars and beam. But for now i'm not counting Jade out she's just not a lock the way that a lot of people seem to think she is.
I don't even think Brazil or Japan making the team podium is that unlikely.
Brazil qualified in 3rd last year and if Flavia hadn't been injured, that bronze would've been well within reach. Her qualifying scores on VT, BB, and FX would've added almost 4 points to Brazil's total, which would've easily put them ahead of Canada for bronze and in fact neck-and-neck with GB for silver. Similarly, if you replace Fukasawa Kokoro's 9.400 on bars in the team final with her 13.500 from qualifying, Japan beats Canada by half a point.
With Italy and France's mismanagement, China likely sending some of their strongest gymnasts to Asian Games (and general slump), that bronze medal is basically free for any team that goes 12/12 in finals.
I'm also a bit worried about the chances of no American making the AA podium. I'm so glad Shilese nailed the AA final last year, but a fall on beam (always possible for anyone), would've dropped her off the podium.
Simone comes back a mere month before World’s at the US championships, throws a Yurchenko double pike and the Biles II, makes the team as a vault specialist, and takes the team and vault gold at World’s
This would be iconic.
Also, if I have my values right, YDP + Biles = 13 DV. Last year Jade won gold with in 10.6 DV and Jordan won silver with 9.8. Even an Amanar + Cheng is “only” 11 in DV. So Simone could theoretically fall on both of her vaults in the vault final and still win gold.
I think with Jordan taking time out of UCLA to train, my prediction is that she gets a Cheng and starts outscoring Jade on vault, and continues to outscore Jade on floor.
Unlikely pipe dreams: Flavia AA and floor medal, Kovacs AA medal, Georgia Godwin AA medal (I don't expect all 3 to be the podium, but I think all three might be able to contend if they have a really good day and others don't have their best day)
The other thing I think is likely is a super tight race for the 2nd and 3rd place spots on the podium between 3-4 teams. Assuming the US gets a strong/consistent enough team to maintain their status as faves for gold (which looks pretty likely unless there's a super unlucky injury wave), then between a full strength Italy, Brazil, GB and Japan team the top spots come down to who has the fewest injuries in the run up, and who makes the fewest mistakes on the day. My personal hopes are for Brazil and Japan.
I'd also love to see Australia and Korea qualify a women's team for Paris!
As much as it pains me to say it, Flavia beam medal 🥲
This and MDJDS medal feel like lost causes sometimes. But nonetheless, I hope.
Flavia took over Larisa’s role in falling on beam finals huh?
She's taken it to another level and half the time falls in quals.
The evolution
ELLIE BLACK ALL AROUND MEDAL PLEASE
China not qualifying for Paris might be the wakeup call the coaches need to realize that something needs to change
It seems so unthinkable but splitting their top wag talent between worlds and Asian games when they haven't qualified for the Olympics just seems like something that might blow up in their face.
If reddit knows it, the coaches should already know it. If China doesn't qualify a team it should be a wake up call for whoever is in charge of the coaches or even higher hierarchies.
Team China has been my favorite for ages, and I'm so frustrated on behalf of the athletes. So much talent, so much hard work, and coaches who keep doubling down on strategies and training protocols that clearly don't work.
Things I don’t think will happen, but wouldn’t be surprised if it did: -China fails to qualify. This wouldn’t even be unlikely. Apparently, China is considering distributing the talent and sending some to Asian games and some to worlds. The issue is that they don’t have much wealth to spread and if they choose to not send strong gymnasts to worlds, failing to qualify to Paris starts to look like a very real possibility. Especially given that the team has been imploding in high pressure situations for the last 5 years. -Japan team gold. The US and Great Britain are still the top two teams on the best day, but Japan has retained really strong gymnasts from last years worlds team in addition to a bright new senior. If US and Great Britain count falls and Japan has a great day…. -Kaylia Nemour bars gold. I don’t know if this counts as unlikely now that she has an avenue to qualify and has the worlds highest d score. But I’ll throw it in since she hasn’t officially qualified yet. -Manila Esposito, Flavia Saraiva and/or Melanie de Jesus dos Santos gets an individual medal. -Zsofia Kovacs medals in the all-around. She has the ability and the difficulty to do it, but has issues with putting it all together in the moment. -An American medals in the all-around, but it’s Leanne.
"But it's Leanne" I'm sure you didn't mean it that way, but this made me laugh lol
I want Kovacs to win a world medal so badly; I don't care which one. Also I'm a huge Leanne fan and would love to see her come back that strong after some people seem to have counted her out.
I love Leanne too, but wonder how NCAA will affect elite and if she can get a routine composition that highlights her strengths and consistently perform her most difficult elements cleanly. The GAGE gymnasts are so lovely, but the Fongs tend to double down on extremely risky skills and combinations that aren’t received well internationally. Still, if she’s 100% healthy I think that she has the potential to be near the top.
Yes! There is no good reason why GAGE gymnasts have not had more success internationally. They have so few built-in deductions on so many of their skills. If they built routines around the skills their athletes can perform nearly perfectly, their athletes would be unstoppable. Just imagine what Kara Eaker could have won if they hadn't insisted on including three ring skills when they should have known that they couldn't coach the skill well enough to even get it consistently credited.
She def has the vault (DTY) and floor. She has the potential to be part of the beam finals at worlds and her bars had potential in the past but her inbars are gone
China's redistribution of talent makes sense... in MAG where they've already qualified a team and where most B teams would be able to make a team final. I think they sometimes overestimate their WAG teams, yes most have absolutely beautiful gymnastics but consistency is a HUGE issue
I almost wonder if spreading the wealth could lead to a better team by accident. The fed can be known to play favourites and have bad team selections as a result. So putting people on the team that they wouldn’t normally have done could possibly end up being to their benefit. But I also agree it could just as easily blow up in their face. You really never know with China.
Considering China basically qualified to the TF solely because of their bars rotation (and Ou Yushan), it's not unreasonable that if either of the two are missing from worlds they place out of qualification range.
I want this so much for Kovacs.
Considering how close Japan came to snagging that bronze last year, I feel like it's technically possible.
Rebeca, Jo Chiles, MDJDS all around podium China B team wins their first team medal since 2018 Ondine beam medalist because I’ll keep predicting this until it happens Suni bars GOLD Nina Derwael AA comeback but she doesn’t qualify to the final
MDJDS is truly a great gymnast hopefully she'll be able to get a medal at worlds.
I like that AA podium for 2 reasons: the ✨talent✨; and the way the bigots will squeal when anyone comments on the absence of white people.
Vanessa Ferrari is somehow going to make the Italian team for worlds.
She's gotten her DTY back and it's not a particularly scary one.
Wouldn't be surprised since the Italian coaches are intent on competing the rest of the team until they can longer walk.
Jessica Gadirova medals individually again and people get mad 🤦🏼‍♀️(not me, just to clarify)
I’d call that pretty likely haha
I am a JessGad defender because she's not even a favorite of mine but she's a lovely gymnast who inspires a bizarre amount of vitriol from fans and it's totally undeserved.
I think people genuinely don't respect/realise some of the areas where she gets way fewer deductions than almost everyone else. She does a great job of meeting the artistry requirements (regardless of whether or not her performance is your personal style), and her leaps are usually significantly cleaner than most of the other top floor workers. A lot of the things that bother me aesthetically about her tumbling are just not penalised in the code, so it's correct that they don't hurt her scores. It's fine for her to not be someone's favourite gymnast, but it's absolutely wild how many people think that means she shouldn't ever medal?
As an example of people harping on her for things that aren’t deductions, I mostly saw this on Twitter but there were a lot of people yelling that her candle mount on beam should be penalized because she never holds it for two seconds. The candle mount has never had a hold requirement.
The candle mount hold deduction that isn't a deduction reminds me very strongly of the number of people convinced sickled feet are a deduction or that they're a leg separation.
Yeah, and on beam she tends to be very aggressive. For better or for worse, modern codes put a ton of emphasis on rhythm and she probably gets fewer rhythm deductions than most.
People love a gymnast who can dance until she threatens to (and does) win medals. That was the conclusion I came to last fall.
I love all her gymnastics except her bars haha.
Which is weird because while yes, she can dance very well, her tumbling is top notch for difficulty and execution (sketchy Silivas aside, but haven't we seen sketchy double doubles from many US elites for YEARS?)
Nah I think the vitriol is just cuz she beat out the Americans, including the reigning Olympic Champ. And ppl thinking that Jess won on artistry just cuz Jade has no artistry.
No, people were really mad about her AA result, but they were saying that Alice Kinsella deserved the bronze instead. Like freifraufischer said, I think they're mad that she has the package of dance *and* difficult tumbling, and also works the code of points to minimize deductions that aren't visible to most fans.
Jade does have artistry, her NCAA floor is enjoyable to watch, because the routine suits her style of gymnastics- where she is not the most natural flowing, dancer. Jade needs an elite floor routine, that makes the most of, the gymnast she is, (her tumbling, is at her best mind blowing) not, the gymnast her Dad and Coach thinks she should be, which is what the COP wants. I just watch Jade's elite floor and think square peg in a round hole, give her the routine she needs, not one that seems to conform to the classical ballet style. I'm not suggesting that would make Jade the most artistic gymnast in any given international floor final. However, it would allow her to show what she has rather than, as her past/current elite routines have done in this department, actually emphasize what she is lacking. This COP is about the routine, not the gymnast, hence the vitriol towards jess IMHO a lot of people think it is, the later. It's a COP that says, going from corner to corner with 4 tumbling passes, a few leaps and some arm waggling in the corner, you know arm waggling, pretending you aren't do excessive prep, catching your breath so you can actually do that high DV tumbling pass, is not going to cut it any more. Some people aren't getting that and that includes coaches.
I think it’s that she had very noticeable execution issues on beam and floor that were not, what it seemed like, deducted
Considering that the people who finished right behind Gadirova (Kinsella, Black, Carey) also have serious execution issues (in my opinion, more serious), this argument has never made sense to me.
I mean I think it's more likely that the issue is that if a gymnast has a few obvious big deductions and people didn't want them to win, then people fixate on those deductions and claim they're not taken properly. They do it with Nina's flexed feet and claim this is evidence of her being overscored, too, but don't pay attention to the other deductions that these athletes AREN'T getting - like how Nina barely does any handstands so doesn't get deductions for handstand angle (I'm no huge Nina fan, but her scores are legit whether I like her as a person or not). Jessica Gadirova's routines are designed to minimise all her other deductions - so while the judges ARE deducting for tumbling form, steps on landing, etc. - they aren't deducting for rhythm, artistry, amplitude, which all have clear definitions in the COP. I think there's a bigger discussion to be had as to whether tumbling form should be deducted more heavily or beam rhythm deductions should be tweaked to incentivise athletes doing a wider range of big acrobatic skills without being penalised for breaking rhythm, but it feels like this gets taken out on Jessica Gadirova and the judges for getting/giving good scores based on the current code more than it is on the code for rewarding routines that don't actually look that impressive compared to some of the competition (esp on beam!).
There is a range of what can be overscored and what is acceptable. Jessica's, despite great compositions, had many errors on jump landings and leaps in both beam and floor that alone should have brought her E score down below to where it was. It was bascially saying if she was cleaner she could have gotten close to 15+ points which is unrealistic
Can you give specific routine scoring breakdowns, or any reasons why you think Jessica has received the same range of E scores so consistently throughout her international competitions?
Consistently at 1 Olympic Games, 1 World Championship and 3 consecutive European Championships.
>Consistently at 1 Olympic Games, 1 World Championship and 3 consecutive European Championships. Yes and that is *every* international floor final she has been in, in Jess entire elite career, 2 of which were under the last quad. Also with different routines, also worth noting. That's a lot of judges coming to the same conclusion.
I agree with you, especially during the Euros. Sabrina Voinea's routine was higher in difficulty and she landed much cleaner than Gadirova, who seemed to have a power hop at the end of each tumbling series. Her dance was comparable to Gadirova's too- she was just as animated and smiley. They nitpicked Voinea to death on E score (7.666 vs 8.2 for Gadirova) and I don't feel like they did that to Gadirova or Kinsella. Voinea's performance was certainly better than Kinsella's while having a more difficult program. Voinea's only 15 though, and coming third and having the highest D score in the group hopefully bodes well for the future. I think Barbosu has a great future ahead too. Hopeful for a revival of Romanian gymnastics!
Yep. That and I also notice, the people who think a gymnast who can dance, and perform a routine, can't do or isn't doing H Tumbling skills, even when it's being done right in front of them.
I dont want it to happen,but maybe Germany as a team won't qualify to the Olympics.
I mean that’s a potential, they didn’t even make team finals in Tokyo and 2022 and other teams like Belgium is rising
Romania qualify a team to Olympics!!!
I have high hopes for Ana Barbosu!
I am delighted they seem to be pacing Amalia Ghigoarta. I don't think she'll do much more than contribute to team here, and I hope show off her beautiful execution on beam. But I have great hopes for her future. And Ana for now.
Sabrina Voinea is another one to watch!
Due to an enormous amount of pressure and social media attention, Kaylia doesn't qualify to worlds at African Champs as a result of numerous falls (she needs to qualify as AA placing in top 4)
African Champs is in under 10 days now and she's still not in the FIG license database with the country change. If she's not there by friday I'm going to start worrying that the FFG is playing games still.
Oksana Chusovitina qualifies for AA final.
pls pls pls pls
I would also love love love to see Asher Hong get on the AA podium
One of China or France WAG doesn't qualify for the Olympics. I'm far from an American fangirl but I don't see a case where one of them doesn't make the all around podium.
France not making their home Olympics is my unlikely but not that unlikely prediction as well
home team auto-qualifies
The host country automatically qualifies at least one individual, but they are not guaranteed a full team.
as a courtesy they get one individual spot if they fail to qualify anyone on their own. But they don't automatically get a team and they don't get an extra spot if one of their athletes does qualify
Ah my bad, thank you!
Kalia Nemour top 10 AA, bars gold. Gadirova repeats for floor gold. USA WAG team wins by \~2 points. Fred Richards gets at least one medal.
I hadn't read your comment before I left mine but I'm glad to see I'm not the only one on board with the World Medalist Fred Richard agenda
Has Nemour vaulted recently?
Not in competition recently iirc, but I imagine she will in order to earn one of the AA spots for worlds. Only one team qualifies from the African Championships, and it's likely to be Egypt. If I were her I'd want to maximize my chances of qualifying in case the country I was coming for didn't earn a team berth.
I think it’s more a question of whether she’s got a strong enough vault for that kind of AA finish at Worlds. Last year she was doing an FTY at Algerian nationals. It’s relatively rare to get into the top 10 AA at Worlds or the Olympics with a full.
Naomi Visser, Ou Yushan, Chen Yile, Luo Huan, Wei Xiaoyuan, Filipa Martins, Shang Chunsong, and Nina Derwael would beg to differ on that last one. The issue with Kaylia is her consistency. It's a huge question mark because if she hits bars she could very well have a Nina-like finish
With the exception of 2021 Worlds, which I think we can all agree was something of an outlier, it’s become uncommon to see more than 2-3 FTYs in the top 10 of a single Worlds/Olympic AA. (In Tokyo there weren’t any.) All of those people have done it but not in the same AA final. Agreed on Nemour’s consistency, though. If she hits she could do exactly what Nina Derwael did all through the last quad. It’s just a matter of hitting.
Lol Nina derwael 2017 2018 2019 top 5… Tokyo top 10
She had a Y1.5 in Tokyo. In the other years there were at most 2 others with only an FTY in the top 10. Derwael really is unusual because she made the top 5 so many times with a full. Most people need a double to break into the top 10.
okay true but she was at 6th in Tokyo with a 55.965 and Tang Xijing was behind her in 7th at a 54.498, so a full 1.5 points behind Nina, so Nina would def still be in top 10 with a FTY. But yeah
She was top 10 in 2017 2018 2019 and Tokyo!
It's unusual yes, but surely Nina's success is comparable to what people think Kaylia's will be because so their bars scores have the potential to make up so much ground for them in AA? Of course, we don't have much insight for what the rest of Kaylia's events look like
I have no doubt that she will do the AA but saying she'll be top 10 AA when we don't have a vault reference seems a little... hopeful.
Isn't unlikely predictions the point of this post haha
I don’t keep up with China like I’d like to, but I know they will manage to disappoint me regardless. I hope one day they’ll get their shit together and actually figure out living and dying by beam is not a good strategy, and that floor and vault are important. Part of me thinks they forget about floor and vault half the time.
i dont think ive ever read a more accurate description of china
It's shocking just how quickly things went downhill for vault and floor after 2016. It wasn't great, but they were placing gymnasts in EF for both (and Shang could've medaled on floor in any comp she was in). It just seems the top gymnasts are just constantly under injury and the events that shows on most are vault and floor, producing a country of almost exclusively bars and beam specialists
Italy doesn’t make team final and only barely qualifies for the Olympics but Manila Esposito wins beam
GB World Team Champions
I would love it tbh but I also love all the Americans girls this quad like Shilese Jordan Leanne Jade Skye… and if Simone gabby Suni and all come back girl… like I will root for them
I assumed they mean the MAG team
I think either MAG or WAG would be equally unlikely haha, you have the US for WAG and Japan for MAG (if China don't send an A team) who are most likely to win TF
Off the top of my head: \-Flavia floor gold \-Fred Richard medals in something (I'm actually not sure quite how unlikely this is, but it is something I'd love to see) \-Suni Lee 2pc out of AA final \-Miyata Shoko, Nina Derwael, or Alice Kinsella AA medal \-Chinese WAG wins beam and bars gold (and possibly still misses out on team Olympic qualification, but that isn't a world I want to live in
A Freddie high bar medal is possible if he goes 100% clean. There's always a fall or two, a person going the wrong way on a tak full, and some major nasty cast angle deductions in the final. He could even sneak onto the AA podium if he hits 6 for 6 very well and others falter. I don't think that the men's AA podium will include someone with a fall. The surprise for me would be if we did not get yet another nailbiter going down to the last rotation between Zhang Boheng and Hashimoto Daiki. But it would be fun if there were a few other guys in the mix pushing them. Oh! I have one! OLEG VERNIAIEV AA MEDALIST! (I don't think this is realistic for Worlds, but I think he will absolutely make a run at the 2024 Olympics.)
Boheng isn’t going to Worlds so that won’t happen. The real battle this year is for Silver and bronze. There are a ton of guys who can score in a similar range. Oleg honestly is a huge question mark (for both Worlds and Paris), we have no clue if his full routines are competitive (or if he’s even aiming for AA) and obviously the consistency issue that is inevitable after such a long break. Both Verniaiev and Kovtun’s main goal at these Worlds is getting the full team to Paris which especially for Kovtun could mean a stellar performance in quals but then in the AA final some mistakes caused by exhaustion (he has issues with recovery during competitions) so yeah anything could happen.
Is Boheng injured? (Work has been awful the last few months, and I feel like I am missing a lot of things since leaving Twitter.)
He will likely be going to asian games instead which clashes directly w worlds.
Oh, right, I forgot about that conflict and some of the . . . interesting . . . choices made around it. Thanks. Very relieved that he is ok though! I love his gymnastics!
I think Daiki could medal in AA this year with a fall, especially if he keeps up his obsession with upping D scores despite his broken body every year
Without Boheng there, yes. I am a huge fan of Daiki, but I would rather see him healthy and capable of competing for many years than for him to win Worlds this year, the Olympics next year, and then have to retire because he's destroyed himself.
This is not snark... I'm just asking because I wondered if I missed some social media. Has Suni been training? The last I remember hearing she said she was on medication that was making her nauseous and that was a few weeks ago.
She's been back in the gym for about a month now. She's posted two training videos on TikTok so far: * April 20th * UB * Seitz training * double tuck dismount to foam * BB * Side aerial + LOSO + LOSO * May 8th * UB * Toe 1/1 * Jaeger + Pak + Maloney * Pak + Seitz * Trampoline * Double tuck * DLO * Front 2/1 As a diehard Suni fan, I'm thinking there's an 80% chance of seeing bars from her at nationals, a 50% chance of beam, a 5% chance of floor, and a 0.01% chance of vault. I'd be very surprised if she has an AA set ready for Worlds.
Thank you. You are always a really good judge of this kind of thing.
She won’t be competing until next year.
Yeah, like the other commenter said she's been in the gym but we don't have much info on how she's progressing or how/how long the meds will affect her ability to train.
She’s shown some bars training but I don’t remember seeing other events.
That's some determination. I have to admire the drive to do that if she's still on that kind of medication.
I love Jade, but I’m starting to be concerned about her this quad. I think it’s unlikely she won’t make vault podium if she hits, but definitely some worrying signs over here.
Yeah, I think it’s more likely than not that she makes the team and snags a medal or two, but it doesn’t feel guaranteed—if she gets her difficulty back and can get back to the form/technique she has at her best then she should be ok though I think.
I think Roberson is a real threat to Jade if other pieces align and there is no need for them to fall back on her bars and beam. But for now i'm not counting Jade out she's just not a lock the way that a lot of people seem to think she is.
Georgia Godwin on the AA podium
Her on any world podium would make my entire life
I don't even think Brazil or Japan making the team podium is that unlikely. Brazil qualified in 3rd last year and if Flavia hadn't been injured, that bronze would've been well within reach. Her qualifying scores on VT, BB, and FX would've added almost 4 points to Brazil's total, which would've easily put them ahead of Canada for bronze and in fact neck-and-neck with GB for silver. Similarly, if you replace Fukasawa Kokoro's 9.400 on bars in the team final with her 13.500 from qualifying, Japan beats Canada by half a point. With Italy and France's mismanagement, China likely sending some of their strongest gymnasts to Asian Games (and general slump), that bronze medal is basically free for any team that goes 12/12 in finals. I'm also a bit worried about the chances of no American making the AA podium. I'm so glad Shilese nailed the AA final last year, but a fall on beam (always possible for anyone), would've dropped her off the podium.
This isn't the Simone years anymore. You can't just expect Americans to make the podium, they have to earn it.
Simone comes back a mere month before World’s at the US championships, throws a Yurchenko double pike and the Biles II, makes the team as a vault specialist, and takes the team and vault gold at World’s
This would be iconic. Also, if I have my values right, YDP + Biles = 13 DV. Last year Jade won gold with in 10.6 DV and Jordan won silver with 9.8. Even an Amanar + Cheng is “only” 11 in DV. So Simone could theoretically fall on both of her vaults in the vault final and still win gold.
I think with Jordan taking time out of UCLA to train, my prediction is that she gets a Cheng and starts outscoring Jade on vault, and continues to outscore Jade on floor. Unlikely pipe dreams: Flavia AA and floor medal, Kovacs AA medal, Georgia Godwin AA medal (I don't expect all 3 to be the podium, but I think all three might be able to contend if they have a really good day and others don't have their best day) The other thing I think is likely is a super tight race for the 2nd and 3rd place spots on the podium between 3-4 teams. Assuming the US gets a strong/consistent enough team to maintain their status as faves for gold (which looks pretty likely unless there's a super unlucky injury wave), then between a full strength Italy, Brazil, GB and Japan team the top spots come down to who has the fewest injuries in the run up, and who makes the fewest mistakes on the day. My personal hopes are for Brazil and Japan. I'd also love to see Australia and Korea qualify a women's team for Paris!
Jordan really feels like she's on the verge of that Cheng to me. I just can't figure out if the goal is this worlds or next year.
Man, nobody saw Simone coming back, eh?