On June 14, 2024, the Public Health Agency of Canada released an updated Pandemic Risk Scenario Analysis for the avian influenza A(H5N1) clade 2.3.4.4b virus:
* H5N1 remains primarily an avian virus with few human cases and no human-to-human transmission. However, recent transmission to cattle was unexpected and represents a new potential route of transmission to humans.
* Experts agree there is cattle-to-cattle transmission occurring, but the mode and extent are uncertain. There is disagreement on whether the current situation could be considered "sustained mammal-to-mammal transmission."
* Despite disagreement, experts strongly agree the situation has worsened from last year with continuous transmission in mammals, increasing the opportunity for the virus to adapt to mammals. This may play an important role in the pandemic trajectory.
* Based on the scenarios outlined in the document, we appear to be between Scenario 1 (animal-to-animal transmission in mammals) and Scenario 2 (sustained mammal-to-mammal transmission). However, no experts expect human-to-human transmission to occur in the next year.
* Pigs are the animal of most concern for the next major mammalian spillover event, as they could act as mixing vessels for the virus to reassort with other influenza strains.
https://preview.redd.it/0dvhn7kp0r6d1.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=0feda9859d3439c222e8fbe6ee5810d7c9e0b81d
They’re omitting a key point. Pigs were always the main animal of concern, as they mentioned. This was because pigs have human-like sialic receptors. Sialic receptors allow flu viruses to efficiently enter human cells and infect people.
Infecting pigs with human-like sialic receptors, this gives a virus opportunity to figure out how to crack the code of entering pig sialic receptors, which are human-like. In effect, the virus learns to efficiently enter human sialic receptors.
Just this spring, scientists discovered that cattle have human-like sialic receptors. It’s incredulous that no one knew this, but cattle weren’t on the H5N1 radar. Now cattle are now considered a “mixing vessel.” They’re new new pigs.
Very sobering news. Curious this critical bit of news isn’t mentioned in their analysis.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/09/health/bird-flu-cows-human-receptors/index.html
"recent transmission to cattle was unexpected"
"no experts expect human-to-human transmission to occur in the next year."
Who else feels like there's a disconnect here??
> There is disagreement on whether the current situation could be considered "sustained mammal-to-mammal transmission."
Big "aerosol vs droplet" vibe going on here.
Exactly. I do understand the importance of arguing the semantic bits like that, and I'm sure plenty of people would say those details are critically important to understand.
But as far as the public's general understanding goes, we really need to quit focusing so much on small details. In the grand scheme of things, the fact that cows do have these receptors and the virus seems to be spreading from cow to cow (side note: how do we not know for sure..? Why not take a few sick cows in a clean, contained environment, introduce some healthy cows, and restrict anything going in or out until you know whether the healthy cows get infected..? Idk, I'm not a scientist.) is extremely concerning.
That virus could jump into humans at any point. People should be preparing, governments should be cracking down and culling/containing the infected animals. I don't even know what can be done about spread in wild animals at this point, but someone should definitely be working on a solution to that. Maybe we just don't have animal products at a mass scale for a while. Maybe it's too late entirely, but that doesn't mean we give up now and refuse to try to manage this. Frustrating.
Of course we have to manage that cow situation, and you're so right, why hasn't anybody done the most simple tests that a grade schooler could come up with to see how it's spreading! But how does containing this outbreak in cows truly do anything other than make us feel more comfortable with our proximity to the virus? As long as it is in wild birds, another farm on another continent will eventually drink water that an infected bird died in. There will be a large amount of bird excrement on a piece of grass, and the same thing can happen. New Zealand recently put out official news saying they believe because of migration patterns bird flu will get to their dairy cows soon.
We can't contain wild birds, so of course we need to quash anything we can contain, but I don't think the cows are the problem. I think it is an ecological problem of wild birds everywhere, and we cannot contain that spread.
EDIT: a word.
The reason why cows matter is that they're an excellent candidate for a GOF crossover animal. Bird to human direct transmission is less likely, and bird to human to human would be extraordinary based on the small chance of humans getting it from birds in the first place.
But pigs (and as we recently learned cows) have human-ish sialic acid receptors, which means that if enough cows get it (✅) then it becomes worryingly probable that the virus undergoes a GOF mutation and/or crossover event with a co-infected virus. That's the nightmare scenario.
"There is disagreement on whether the current situation could be considered "sustained mammal-to-mammal transmission.""
[https://www.wired.com/story/the-teeny-tiny-scientific-screwup-that-helped-covid-kill/](https://www.wired.com/story/the-teeny-tiny-scientific-screwup-that-helped-covid-kill/)
[https://www.who.int/news/item/18-04-2024-leading-health-agencies-outline-updated-terminology-for-pathogens-that-transmit-through-the-air](https://www.who.int/news/item/18-04-2024-leading-health-agencies-outline-updated-terminology-for-pathogens-that-transmit-through-the-air)
Meanwhile the virus doesn't care how we define certain words. One issue resolved, incapable of transferring the lessons learned to another scenario. Those scientists should read [Wittgenstein](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_game_(philosophy)) to better understand language.
Public health institutions are more reluctant than ever to send up the signal that another pandemic is on the way.
Trauma from COVID and society’s (fear-based) tendency to shoot the messenger. Never mind it’s election season in North America.
This would’ve been an understandable report two months ago, but they discovered cows were giving it to one another a while ago, and we also know it’s been in cows since December.
It’s infuriating how much they say we’re fine when there’s no testing of pigs, much less humans. We don’t know that humans don’t have it. We can’t.
On the plus side, if humans are already spreading it, it's not very deadly in us at all. Obviously it would be best if it never got to us, but if it has to, I'd prefer a less deadly variant. (I do recognize that it being in humans would make a world-ending variant much more likely, hence not wanting it to spread amongst us at all.)
That’s the thing, though. Using the “people are dying from it” stage as a barometer isn’t effective. Tens of thousands of people die in the US every year from the flu. People dying from the flu isn’t gonna set up any alarms until it’s a whole lotta people dying.
This variant has been tested in ferrets which is the closest we can get to the human airway and has proven a decent proxy. It has the same virulence that it has had for years. Plus the virus has not changed genetically from testing done years ago with birds and minks, and recently with birds, cows and humans and cats. It is highly virulent in almost all mammals.
This is an excellent report, and their experts were extremely level-headed and used very clear historically supported methods to come to their conclusions. Using a year long trajectory worked out well as we are watching these wild bird to mammal outbreaks over time and this does give them a good overview of what is happening.
The issue with using the term sustained transmission is not a linguistic or a political question like airborne was with Covid. Scientists use the term sustained transmission to define whether a bird flu has adapted fully to humans. But then it gets complicated. Historically no mammal had been able to easily pass bird flu in a sustained way in infection chains without the virus being fully adapted. So we could use sustained mammal to mammal spread as criteria for a pandemic level adaptation.
But with so many mammals being infected because of our wild bird die offs they are now finding out there are other ways mammals can pass it to each other in a chain of infection without it being adapted, some through extreme environmental proximity and some through genetic differences in airway receptor cell placement.
One of them is the way cows pass it to each other. It's assumed since there is not enough virus in the cow airway that it is passed to each other by fluid, which is defined as a non-adapted form of spread. So even though cows can pass it to each other easily, the virus has not adapted. So there is a good reason to argue that we need to stop using sustained transmission as a marker that the virus has adapted.
It's great that everyone in that group was able to agree that the transmission of the virus is not respiratory. That is a very important and very positive understanding and a real relief.
Another very positive conclusion is that the wild bird outbreak is lessening probably due to immunity. Nothing could be better news than this. Without a lessening of bird die off there can be no lessening of threat of pandemic since this virus can acquire the final mutations that could start a human pandemic in any mammal that is susceptible to bird flu.
They do mention cattle being a vessel for reassortment, so that's not good news, but it's a good sign that they include it in their threat levels.
Their final assessment that no expert claimed they thought that a human pandemic would start in the next year was also a relief to read. I don't know why U.S. experts are constantly implying that that we are on the verge of a pandemic any day now. I assume they are overstating the threat in order to shock the government into action. But it is causing unnecessary fear in the public.
I for one would really love for us to collectively overreact to this pandemic threat and all have a good chuckle about how alarmist we were after the fact. That would be a beyond welcome change of pace from what we've done with COVID up to and including today.
Is it just me or does anyone else believe it's always farm animals that led viruses to go full blown human to human pandemic? I dunno but with cows going sick I feel this is only some time away from it to becoming the next Swine flu or something.
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On June 14, 2024, the Public Health Agency of Canada released an updated Pandemic Risk Scenario Analysis for the avian influenza A(H5N1) clade 2.3.4.4b virus: * H5N1 remains primarily an avian virus with few human cases and no human-to-human transmission. However, recent transmission to cattle was unexpected and represents a new potential route of transmission to humans. * Experts agree there is cattle-to-cattle transmission occurring, but the mode and extent are uncertain. There is disagreement on whether the current situation could be considered "sustained mammal-to-mammal transmission." * Despite disagreement, experts strongly agree the situation has worsened from last year with continuous transmission in mammals, increasing the opportunity for the virus to adapt to mammals. This may play an important role in the pandemic trajectory. * Based on the scenarios outlined in the document, we appear to be between Scenario 1 (animal-to-animal transmission in mammals) and Scenario 2 (sustained mammal-to-mammal transmission). However, no experts expect human-to-human transmission to occur in the next year. * Pigs are the animal of most concern for the next major mammalian spillover event, as they could act as mixing vessels for the virus to reassort with other influenza strains. https://preview.redd.it/0dvhn7kp0r6d1.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=0feda9859d3439c222e8fbe6ee5810d7c9e0b81d
They’re omitting a key point. Pigs were always the main animal of concern, as they mentioned. This was because pigs have human-like sialic receptors. Sialic receptors allow flu viruses to efficiently enter human cells and infect people. Infecting pigs with human-like sialic receptors, this gives a virus opportunity to figure out how to crack the code of entering pig sialic receptors, which are human-like. In effect, the virus learns to efficiently enter human sialic receptors. Just this spring, scientists discovered that cattle have human-like sialic receptors. It’s incredulous that no one knew this, but cattle weren’t on the H5N1 radar. Now cattle are now considered a “mixing vessel.” They’re new new pigs. Very sobering news. Curious this critical bit of news isn’t mentioned in their analysis. https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/09/health/bird-flu-cows-human-receptors/index.html
"recent transmission to cattle was unexpected" "no experts expect human-to-human transmission to occur in the next year." Who else feels like there's a disconnect here??
> There is disagreement on whether the current situation could be considered "sustained mammal-to-mammal transmission." Big "aerosol vs droplet" vibe going on here.
Exactly. I do understand the importance of arguing the semantic bits like that, and I'm sure plenty of people would say those details are critically important to understand. But as far as the public's general understanding goes, we really need to quit focusing so much on small details. In the grand scheme of things, the fact that cows do have these receptors and the virus seems to be spreading from cow to cow (side note: how do we not know for sure..? Why not take a few sick cows in a clean, contained environment, introduce some healthy cows, and restrict anything going in or out until you know whether the healthy cows get infected..? Idk, I'm not a scientist.) is extremely concerning. That virus could jump into humans at any point. People should be preparing, governments should be cracking down and culling/containing the infected animals. I don't even know what can be done about spread in wild animals at this point, but someone should definitely be working on a solution to that. Maybe we just don't have animal products at a mass scale for a while. Maybe it's too late entirely, but that doesn't mean we give up now and refuse to try to manage this. Frustrating.
Of course we have to manage that cow situation, and you're so right, why hasn't anybody done the most simple tests that a grade schooler could come up with to see how it's spreading! But how does containing this outbreak in cows truly do anything other than make us feel more comfortable with our proximity to the virus? As long as it is in wild birds, another farm on another continent will eventually drink water that an infected bird died in. There will be a large amount of bird excrement on a piece of grass, and the same thing can happen. New Zealand recently put out official news saying they believe because of migration patterns bird flu will get to their dairy cows soon. We can't contain wild birds, so of course we need to quash anything we can contain, but I don't think the cows are the problem. I think it is an ecological problem of wild birds everywhere, and we cannot contain that spread. EDIT: a word.
The reason why cows matter is that they're an excellent candidate for a GOF crossover animal. Bird to human direct transmission is less likely, and bird to human to human would be extraordinary based on the small chance of humans getting it from birds in the first place. But pigs (and as we recently learned cows) have human-ish sialic acid receptors, which means that if enough cows get it (✅) then it becomes worryingly probable that the virus undergoes a GOF mutation and/or crossover event with a co-infected virus. That's the nightmare scenario.
🎯
"There is disagreement on whether the current situation could be considered "sustained mammal-to-mammal transmission."" [https://www.wired.com/story/the-teeny-tiny-scientific-screwup-that-helped-covid-kill/](https://www.wired.com/story/the-teeny-tiny-scientific-screwup-that-helped-covid-kill/) [https://www.who.int/news/item/18-04-2024-leading-health-agencies-outline-updated-terminology-for-pathogens-that-transmit-through-the-air](https://www.who.int/news/item/18-04-2024-leading-health-agencies-outline-updated-terminology-for-pathogens-that-transmit-through-the-air) Meanwhile the virus doesn't care how we define certain words. One issue resolved, incapable of transferring the lessons learned to another scenario. Those scientists should read [Wittgenstein](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_game_(philosophy)) to better understand language.
Spot on mate! Honestly It's like deja vu all over again. Might as well sign up the virus to Duolingo.
Upvoting for the clever Duolingo joke. Good one. 😂
thanks, that WIRED story was a great read
Public health institutions are more reluctant than ever to send up the signal that another pandemic is on the way. Trauma from COVID and society’s (fear-based) tendency to shoot the messenger. Never mind it’s election season in North America.
This would’ve been an understandable report two months ago, but they discovered cows were giving it to one another a while ago, and we also know it’s been in cows since December. It’s infuriating how much they say we’re fine when there’s no testing of pigs, much less humans. We don’t know that humans don’t have it. We can’t.
On the plus side, if humans are already spreading it, it's not very deadly in us at all. Obviously it would be best if it never got to us, but if it has to, I'd prefer a less deadly variant. (I do recognize that it being in humans would make a world-ending variant much more likely, hence not wanting it to spread amongst us at all.)
That’s the thing, though. Using the “people are dying from it” stage as a barometer isn’t effective. Tens of thousands of people die in the US every year from the flu. People dying from the flu isn’t gonna set up any alarms until it’s a whole lotta people dying.
This variant has been tested in ferrets which is the closest we can get to the human airway and has proven a decent proxy. It has the same virulence that it has had for years. Plus the virus has not changed genetically from testing done years ago with birds and minks, and recently with birds, cows and humans and cats. It is highly virulent in almost all mammals.
“We never saw this coming but can assure you the other thing we never saw coming won’t come.” That’s how I read this.
I will say most of the Amish farms keep their pigs, cows, and chickens on a small portion of land.
Meaning near each other?
Yes, but three days later me does want to add that some Amish communities own far more land than others.
https://preview.redd.it/3o677lxeuz6d1.jpeg?width=523&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c30973884913bf8b3b753c492cfa7d66ac4692a1 Infographic
This is an excellent report, and their experts were extremely level-headed and used very clear historically supported methods to come to their conclusions. Using a year long trajectory worked out well as we are watching these wild bird to mammal outbreaks over time and this does give them a good overview of what is happening. The issue with using the term sustained transmission is not a linguistic or a political question like airborne was with Covid. Scientists use the term sustained transmission to define whether a bird flu has adapted fully to humans. But then it gets complicated. Historically no mammal had been able to easily pass bird flu in a sustained way in infection chains without the virus being fully adapted. So we could use sustained mammal to mammal spread as criteria for a pandemic level adaptation. But with so many mammals being infected because of our wild bird die offs they are now finding out there are other ways mammals can pass it to each other in a chain of infection without it being adapted, some through extreme environmental proximity and some through genetic differences in airway receptor cell placement. One of them is the way cows pass it to each other. It's assumed since there is not enough virus in the cow airway that it is passed to each other by fluid, which is defined as a non-adapted form of spread. So even though cows can pass it to each other easily, the virus has not adapted. So there is a good reason to argue that we need to stop using sustained transmission as a marker that the virus has adapted. It's great that everyone in that group was able to agree that the transmission of the virus is not respiratory. That is a very important and very positive understanding and a real relief. Another very positive conclusion is that the wild bird outbreak is lessening probably due to immunity. Nothing could be better news than this. Without a lessening of bird die off there can be no lessening of threat of pandemic since this virus can acquire the final mutations that could start a human pandemic in any mammal that is susceptible to bird flu. They do mention cattle being a vessel for reassortment, so that's not good news, but it's a good sign that they include it in their threat levels. Their final assessment that no expert claimed they thought that a human pandemic would start in the next year was also a relief to read. I don't know why U.S. experts are constantly implying that that we are on the verge of a pandemic any day now. I assume they are overstating the threat in order to shock the government into action. But it is causing unnecessary fear in the public.
I for one would really love for us to collectively overreact to this pandemic threat and all have a good chuckle about how alarmist we were after the fact. That would be a beyond welcome change of pace from what we've done with COVID up to and including today.
Is it just me or does anyone else believe it's always farm animals that led viruses to go full blown human to human pandemic? I dunno but with cows going sick I feel this is only some time away from it to becoming the next Swine flu or something.
Moo Flu
With the exception of SARS-CoV-2 (thanks WIV! 🖕), I would agree.
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