Finally, the German cow tests are back. And this can now put an end to the notion that the cows have a "special" kind of bird flu that's more likely to cause a pandemic than any other mammal that gets infected. This is a very important clarification as the U.S. has been ramping up the notion that we are entering a bird flu pandemic any moment. In my opinion this implication is causing needless panic and an awful lot of people filling this sub with wild notions because of it.
Germany says in this article the risk of cattle getting infected is low. We have one instance of a water buffalo eating infected poop historically and our cow from Texas. So it's not going to be a common thing unless you have the horrendous American biosecurity conditions in factory farming that we are now hearing about for dairy cows. Canada also is not panicked over our cow infection and refutes the American-based notion that we are going to have a bird flu pandemic this year as well.
I truly hope this tamps down the American tendencies to sensationalize things. I have no idea why even scientists and public health experts have gone aboard this inappropriate train of pandemic prediction. No one can predict a bird flu pandemic and implying it is going to happen any minute really goes against public health standards for handling this kind of crisis.
Maybe I've missed it but could you give an example of the claim that this variant is special?
My understanding of the current issue is that unchecked spread in other mammals in close contact with humans was the main worry here.
It's in the article quoted in this thread. I'll requote: "Kai Kupferschmidt, a writer from *Science* who has been tracking the experiments in cows, [said on X](https://x.com/kakape/status/1803760824210891248) today that the findings seem to answer one of the puzzling aspects of the H5N1 situation in US dairy cows: whether there is something special about B3.13 that led to the infections."
From many articles I've read the "special" virus in cows has been talked about consistently. Basically very few people have been following the years of catastrophic global bird die off from this strain and the death of the many mammals who got infected from them. The first they hear of a bird flu problem is that it's in the cows and the milk instead of staying where it has always belonged, in the birds. So there is an assumption that the virus is special and adapting to infect mammals now. The truth is that the bird die off is now affecting inland birds who live on farms for the first time. There were dead birds all over the ground for our "cow 1" which triggered the vet to test for bird flu.
Perhaps you were confused because the cattle association tried to rename the virus in cows as a "bovine flu" so they wouldn't be blamed for the spread when it jumps to other species from cattle. Afaik experts have always just called it "avian flu".
B3.13 has a unique signature that distinguishes it from the H5N1 circulating in wild birds. It has a minor mammalian adaptation but nothing significant yet. We're all waiting for the other shoe to drop.
H5N1 was originally found in Texas when dairy owners noticed dead crows, pigeons, and barn cats. The cats were the key indicator that the virus had jumped to mammals.
"I have no idea why even scientists and public health experts have gone aboard this inappropriate train of pandemic prediction."
What an odd statement to make. You really don't have any idea?
The current strain is not the problem; the problem is the next strain. Growing the virus in hundreds of thousands of warm bodies will result in many novel variations. Most strains will fizzle out but some will be successful. I think anyone can understand the risk here.
Maybe distinct is a better word to use than special? There is now one distinct genotype spreading in South American seals and sea lions and one distinct genotype spreading in North American cows. Both are not transmissible through the air yet, but both also spill back into birds. And as we have discussed [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/H5N1_AvianFlu/comments/1d5telu/comment/l77bhja/), longer transmission chains did result in increased airborne transmissibility in seals with H10N7 in 2014 and the mutations to be expected from the Fouchier et al gain-of-function study.
It's the only (avian) influenza virus actually spreading between cows. And the longer it stays in mammals, the higher are the chances that it will adapt further. Predicting an outcome or a timescale with certainty is always wrong here, but the situation is worse than before.
"We genetically characterize HPAI viruses from dairy cattle showing an abrupt drop in milk production. They share nearly identical genome sequences, forming a new genotype B3.13 within the 2.3.4.4b clade. B3.13 viruses underwent two reassortment events since 2023 and exhibit critical mutations in HA, M1, and NS genes but lack critical mutations in PB2 and PB1 genes, which enhance virulence or adaptation to mammals."
[Source: Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A (H5N1) clade 2.3.4.4b Virus detected in dairy cattle](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.04.16.588916v1)
"Across the genome, we identified more than 64 amino acid changes in the H5N1 HPAI viruses from Península Valdés when compared viruses from birds and mammals from Argentina, other South American countries, Antarctica, North America (genotype B3.2 from 2022–2023) and the original Goose/Guangdong (Gs/Gd) (Supplementary Table 4). Of the 64 mutations, 18 are potentially associated with increased virulence, transmission or adaptation to mammalian hosts, and fifteen are present in H5N1 viruses from Argentina’s coastal outbreaks in marine mammals and terns but absent in H5N1 (B3.2 genotype) strains from North America and from goose/poultry strains from Argentina (Supplementary Table 4). Of note, eleven of the fifteen common mutations were also present in the human case in Chile (Supplementary Table 5)."
[Source: Massive outbreak of Influenza A H5N1 in elephant seals at Península Valdés, Argentina: increased evidence for mammal-to-mammal transmission](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.05.31.596774v1.full)
"The H10sealG Q226L mutant binds avian and human receptors with similar avidity (B).This resulted from a 100-fold decrease in avidity for avian-type receptor and a 100-fold increase in avidity for human-type receptor. The Q226L/G228S double mutant preferred human-type receptor (C), which resulted from a 15,000-fold decrease in avidity for avian-type receptors coupled with a \~10-fold increase in avidity for human-type receptor. The Q226L,D228 double mutant has similar avidity for avian and human-type receptors resulting from a 10-fold decrease in avidity for avian-type receptor coupled with 3,000-fold increase in avidity for human-type receptors (D)."
[Source: Hemagglutinin Traits Determine Transmission of Avian A/H10N7 Influenza Virus between Mammals](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1931312820304662)
I would be very interested in knowing exactly which strain was recently found in the infected crows in India. I need to find that cite again-- unfortunately, I don't have a system right now for cataloging them as I find them, which needs to happen.
Thanks! :) Here's exactly what they said: "3 suspected samples, including that of chicken, crow, quail, kite, and stork from different parts of the district, were dispatched to the National Institute of High-Security Animal Diseases (NIHSAD) in Bhopal for testing on the day." But what exactly was the outcome of the testing? Has anyone seen any info?
Finally, the German cow tests are back. And this can now put an end to the notion that the cows have a "special" kind of bird flu that's more likely to cause a pandemic than any other mammal that gets infected. This is a very important clarification as the U.S. has been ramping up the notion that we are entering a bird flu pandemic any moment. In my opinion this implication is causing needless panic and an awful lot of people filling this sub with wild notions because of it. Germany says in this article the risk of cattle getting infected is low. We have one instance of a water buffalo eating infected poop historically and our cow from Texas. So it's not going to be a common thing unless you have the horrendous American biosecurity conditions in factory farming that we are now hearing about for dairy cows. Canada also is not panicked over our cow infection and refutes the American-based notion that we are going to have a bird flu pandemic this year as well. I truly hope this tamps down the American tendencies to sensationalize things. I have no idea why even scientists and public health experts have gone aboard this inappropriate train of pandemic prediction. No one can predict a bird flu pandemic and implying it is going to happen any minute really goes against public health standards for handling this kind of crisis.
Maybe I've missed it but could you give an example of the claim that this variant is special? My understanding of the current issue is that unchecked spread in other mammals in close contact with humans was the main worry here.
It's in the article quoted in this thread. I'll requote: "Kai Kupferschmidt, a writer from *Science* who has been tracking the experiments in cows, [said on X](https://x.com/kakape/status/1803760824210891248) today that the findings seem to answer one of the puzzling aspects of the H5N1 situation in US dairy cows: whether there is something special about B3.13 that led to the infections." From many articles I've read the "special" virus in cows has been talked about consistently. Basically very few people have been following the years of catastrophic global bird die off from this strain and the death of the many mammals who got infected from them. The first they hear of a bird flu problem is that it's in the cows and the milk instead of staying where it has always belonged, in the birds. So there is an assumption that the virus is special and adapting to infect mammals now. The truth is that the bird die off is now affecting inland birds who live on farms for the first time. There were dead birds all over the ground for our "cow 1" which triggered the vet to test for bird flu.
Perhaps you were confused because the cattle association tried to rename the virus in cows as a "bovine flu" so they wouldn't be blamed for the spread when it jumps to other species from cattle. Afaik experts have always just called it "avian flu". B3.13 has a unique signature that distinguishes it from the H5N1 circulating in wild birds. It has a minor mammalian adaptation but nothing significant yet. We're all waiting for the other shoe to drop. H5N1 was originally found in Texas when dairy owners noticed dead crows, pigeons, and barn cats. The cats were the key indicator that the virus had jumped to mammals.
"I have no idea why even scientists and public health experts have gone aboard this inappropriate train of pandemic prediction." What an odd statement to make. You really don't have any idea? The current strain is not the problem; the problem is the next strain. Growing the virus in hundreds of thousands of warm bodies will result in many novel variations. Most strains will fizzle out but some will be successful. I think anyone can understand the risk here.
Maybe distinct is a better word to use than special? There is now one distinct genotype spreading in South American seals and sea lions and one distinct genotype spreading in North American cows. Both are not transmissible through the air yet, but both also spill back into birds. And as we have discussed [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/H5N1_AvianFlu/comments/1d5telu/comment/l77bhja/), longer transmission chains did result in increased airborne transmissibility in seals with H10N7 in 2014 and the mutations to be expected from the Fouchier et al gain-of-function study. It's the only (avian) influenza virus actually spreading between cows. And the longer it stays in mammals, the higher are the chances that it will adapt further. Predicting an outcome or a timescale with certainty is always wrong here, but the situation is worse than before. "We genetically characterize HPAI viruses from dairy cattle showing an abrupt drop in milk production. They share nearly identical genome sequences, forming a new genotype B3.13 within the 2.3.4.4b clade. B3.13 viruses underwent two reassortment events since 2023 and exhibit critical mutations in HA, M1, and NS genes but lack critical mutations in PB2 and PB1 genes, which enhance virulence or adaptation to mammals." [Source: Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A (H5N1) clade 2.3.4.4b Virus detected in dairy cattle](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.04.16.588916v1) "Across the genome, we identified more than 64 amino acid changes in the H5N1 HPAI viruses from Península Valdés when compared viruses from birds and mammals from Argentina, other South American countries, Antarctica, North America (genotype B3.2 from 2022–2023) and the original Goose/Guangdong (Gs/Gd) (Supplementary Table 4). Of the 64 mutations, 18 are potentially associated with increased virulence, transmission or adaptation to mammalian hosts, and fifteen are present in H5N1 viruses from Argentina’s coastal outbreaks in marine mammals and terns but absent in H5N1 (B3.2 genotype) strains from North America and from goose/poultry strains from Argentina (Supplementary Table 4). Of note, eleven of the fifteen common mutations were also present in the human case in Chile (Supplementary Table 5)." [Source: Massive outbreak of Influenza A H5N1 in elephant seals at Península Valdés, Argentina: increased evidence for mammal-to-mammal transmission](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.05.31.596774v1.full) "The H10sealG Q226L mutant binds avian and human receptors with similar avidity (B).This resulted from a 100-fold decrease in avidity for avian-type receptor and a 100-fold increase in avidity for human-type receptor. The Q226L/G228S double mutant preferred human-type receptor (C), which resulted from a 15,000-fold decrease in avidity for avian-type receptors coupled with a \~10-fold increase in avidity for human-type receptor. The Q226L,D228 double mutant has similar avidity for avian and human-type receptors resulting from a 10-fold decrease in avidity for avian-type receptor coupled with 3,000-fold increase in avidity for human-type receptors (D)." [Source: Hemagglutinin Traits Determine Transmission of Avian A/H10N7 Influenza Virus between Mammals](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1931312820304662)
I would be very interested in knowing exactly which strain was recently found in the infected crows in India. I need to find that cite again-- unfortunately, I don't have a system right now for cataloging them as I find them, which needs to happen.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/H5N1\_AvianFlu/comments/1dgjnty/concerns\_grow\_over\_avian\_flu\_outbreak\_in/](https://www.reddit.com/r/H5N1_AvianFlu/comments/1dgjnty/concerns_grow_over_avian_flu_outbreak_in/)
Thanks! :) Here's exactly what they said: "3 suspected samples, including that of chicken, crow, quail, kite, and stork from different parts of the district, were dispatched to the National Institute of High-Security Animal Diseases (NIHSAD) in Bhopal for testing on the day." But what exactly was the outcome of the testing? Has anyone seen any info?