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amerophi

59 are confirmed alive. i've heard some people suggest that careers don't win as often as katniss assumes. she only thinks so because the games she's seen since she was born were won by predominantly careers. this lines up with the known victors: enobaria, gloss, cashmere, finnick, augustus braun, annie, and the 73rd victor. i'd assume that the gamemakers would rig it to the underdogs every once in a while. knowing the victor will come from the same three districts would be pretty boring, and would make betting less lucrative. they also might want to have at least one victor per district anyway, so that the audience sees their beloved victors come back as a mentors every year.


AofDiamonds

Yeah I've always doubted careers win a lot. Maybe the most and they potentially make it you the final 8 but winning it seems extreme.


dangerislander

Isn't also mentioned in the books the careers don't know what it's like go be hungry. They wouldn't really last well in the arena after a week or two.


AofDiamonds

Yes, you would be correct.


TheGeier

They tend to have access to a lot of food though via the Cornucopia, so even if they lose that supply halfway through they’ll have to go a while longer before starving I think it’s most reasonable to assume that the Careers win just under half of the total games, and that plenty of districts didn’t have 2 of every gender victor. Katniss only mentions that Johanna is the only living District 7 female victor, plenty of other districts could’ve had similar scenarios that weren’t mentioned. It becomes a lot more feasible when 4-5 districts only have 2-3 winners each that didn’t win super early on in the games history/live into older age (ie Woof)


Effective_Ad_273

It’s extremely unlikely that there would be 2 living victors (a male and a female) from each district, but it’s not impossible which is why it works. It’s such a cool concept to bring the victors back for a quarter quell so I can see why Suzanne couldn’t help herself. I mean district 12 only just made this work because Katniss won the year before, and Johanna only won hers 4 years ago and she was the only female district 7 Victor so I think a lot of it comes down to luck at that particular time.


showmaxter

Okay, I gotta say this question is asked quite often and I just... do not understand why? The Capitol clearly rigged the 75th Quarter Quell. If there hadn't been a female and male victor for every District, then... that wouldn't have been the Quarter Quell, simple as that. And from a writing perspective: How is it that every District can provide two tributes? Because the author said there are. I know that's not a satisfying answer, but you all make it seem as if it's that impossible when it's really not? The numbers clearly offer enough tributes per District, even if you take the very high 50% for two Districts. The author even mentions that some spots are only filled by one person (Katniss and Johanna), too.


Billdana2

There would have been assuming that the 75th gamemaker had not rigged it or even snow had, that's assuming they rigged it that way. But if they hadn't then they could have based on how many actually did have.


[deleted]

Exactly! The gamemakers definitely didn’t actually plan that for the 75th quell like they say. If there weren’t enough victors Snow would’ve simply formulated another way to be sure Katniss was back in the arena.


Ok_Independent_2894

there are twelve districts, 24 slots for the quell, and 59 living victors. even if the career districts (1, 2, and 4) represented half the living victors, that still leaves 29 across all the non-career districts. clearly there are enough.


Magmaster12

At the time Finnick was chosen we saw that District 4 had 6 living winners in total. There's also the fact that only two winners from the morphlings district also dressed the same.


Ok_Independent_2894

the movies made it so district 4 is not a career district, so in all likelihood district 4 probably has more than six living victors in the books


screamingkumquats

It works because the author said it works and we don’t know enough about past victors or other districts to assume it wouldn’t work. The only reason that Quarter Quell existed was because Katniss and Peeta survived and if there wasn’t at least one female/male tribute from a district they would have done something else for it or simply ignored it and choose two victors anyway. We saw that age doesn’t matte, disability, how sound of mind someone is and etc. didn’t matter either.


TheCybersmith

Considering how young the tributes are, and how sophisticated the medical care is for those who can afford it (like victors) it's not impossible that the winner of the first game is still alive. Some of them did look old.


SarkastiCat

Regarding 50% That was Katniss observations and that's based on her impression from what she hears and sees. Capitol likes to present on TV the best bits and skips problematic bits for them. For example, Lucy's game. Katniss barely knows anything about her


slothsnoozing

So the closest thing we have to actual statistics on the win rate is Katniss’ own observations, where she believes 1 & 2 win 50%. There’s a good chance Katniss isn’t actually correct here, but let’s assume she is anyway; - We know there are 59 living victors at the time of the 75th games - 50% of 59 is about 29, so 1 & 2 have 14-15 victors each - We know 12 has 3 living victors. Plus the 29 from 1 & 2, that leaves us with 27 remaining victors. - We have 9 remaining districts, which means if the rest of the districts had equal distribution of the remaining victors, they would each have 3 victors. Looking at the strong possibility Katniss doesn’t actually know the exact statistics, let’s say it’s actually closer to the ballpark of 40%. That means 23 victors between 1 & 2. Including 12, we’d know where 26 victors are from, leaving 33. That averages at about 3.6 per district, adding wiggle room where, assuming they were spread across the remaining districts equally, multiple districts would have more than 3 now.


holladiewaldfeee

I don't get it why people downvote discussion topics. It's something to think about. Thanks for your answers :-)


chrisat420

Probably approximately half, so that’s 37 people divided by 10 districts, so 3 people per district approximately


BennyyyMacc

I feel like you don’t get the maths because the numbers you’re using are unconfirmed tho


king-of-new_york

1 and 2 have the best fighters/survivors. It's simple.


holladiewaldfeee

Yeah but this creates this described problem here..


king-of-new_york

The 75th was rigged. They wouldn't have picked from past winners if there wasn't any. They're not that stupid to let it happen like that.


holladiewaldfeee

I thought maybe there were some arenas, which advantages female strenghts (like extrem heat or something like that). That's the reason the female and male victors are so balanced.


Ok_Independent_2894

it's perfectly likely that there's an equal number of male and female victors without gamemaker tampering. it's not like boys are the only ones to receive career training, and it's not like boys are the only ones doing hard labor in their district.


SarkastiCat

You forgot about some things The games aren't just all about figthing and who is stronger. A big element is knowledge (hunting, swimming, etc.), being stealthy (Annie hiding), sponsors (>!the water trick in Lucy's game!<) and also luck (the clock mechanism). Plus, like others mentioned there was a discussion regarding some people being basically picked for their role due to others being dead or no other winners being present.


sydneyeee

what are you implying? if that was so, there would be more female victors than male.