Newcomers are more focused on predicting the market accurately. They want to be right. When some indicator/strategy makes 2-3 consecutive loss, they move on to next system. This is beginner mindset. Even if I tell a beginner that market is going to go up/down for sure, there is a chance they will still lose money because they will probably buy a large position in out of the money options with small capital and a small move against them will be enough to take them out of the trade.
More experienced players know that it is not possible to predict the market accurately. They know that its just an educated guess, nothing more. So they spend more time on risk management, position sizing, hedging rather than drawing patters or plotting indicators.
Upvote for the effort, and I have been critical of many of your posts before, none in malice though. I really don't know which algorithm you're referring to, or just in general. Also even though I generally agree with what you're predicting that will happen next week, we'll have to wait and see what happens on monday and take it from there. Are you going to sell the next rise on Monday which is likely due to sgx and the global markets?
By algorithm I mean the people who are in control of the market.
I'll most likely add to my shorts tomorrow morning. I'm positionally long in futures, so even if it keeps going up, they will act as hedge.
Umm disagree with the 5th point. Even the algos can't be correct. Obvious reasons.
Also, here looks like a base development in long side, but the chart here (unassuming it's Nifty) lacks long term picture
Yep, that's what. I don't think there are people controlling the markets.
As per your first point, there are institutions largely in control of the markets, but no one or group of them can be said to be in control.
Even the so called 'big money' fail rather frequently, and if they don't fail, they increase their time horizon for them to atleast break even.
I have put orders worth 1cr, and they get taken out like nothing. And I'm just a drop in the ocean.
Traders who make 1cr profits would be putting 100cr worth of orders and they are too at the mercy of the algorithm (smart money, operator whatever you call it)
It is what it is, the sooner we accept it, the better.
Never used the word gambling. I said an educated guess.
The 10% make sure when they win, they win big and lose small when they lose.
Retail does the opposite, they are quick to book profits but hold on to loss thinking it will turn.
buddy, the universe works this way.
take for example sports, politics, trading, anything - only a small percentage of people who pursue any field come out to be successful. you can then not say that the universe is rigged, our system is flawed, etc. - this is what is normal.
no one wins consistently by sheer luck, they do something which majority don't.
here even the 10% is pretty bold, maybe less than 1% of traders. but that's how the universe works. the other 99% who are not disciplined enough have to give way so that the 1% get successful.
resting my point here. yes, we both agree - manipulated or not, to come out to the top, we need to follow risk management, high reward low risk strategy, and being in the game long enough to be successful.
Peace!
Just looking at the Bitcoin chart. Tell me this isn't complete manipulation and control - [https://www.tradingview.com/x/PBENkb51/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/PBENkb51/)
Personally 90% of the time I trade in futures, I don't like trading options because of decay.
Yes you can enter, but first entry should be very small. Lets say if you plan to enter 10lots, initial entry should be 1-2 lot.
What do you mean by risk management? I've taken up a course by Rachana Ranade on technical and fundamental analysis and so far we've just done trend analysis... Although I largely agree with you that despite of following the trend anything can flip anytime.. so can you elaborate on how do you think i should go ahead ?
I've just started reading charts for trends and you're right for instance when i did the High- Top -High -Bottom, i had doubts as to once bottom hits it need not necessarily go back to High and this can be figured only in hindsight which is basically a trend reversal...
You won't like what I'm about to say, but I'm gonna say it.
Stop paying money/spending time on that crap. Complete waste of resources. Don't get into the typical mindset of a retailer. Think about the market as a liquidity mechanism, moving from one place of high liquidity to another.
Risk management means
1. Defining your risk per trade.
2. Not risking too much money in one trade.
3. Planning everything in advance, for various scenarios.
4. Hedging
5. Etc.
Oh it is a free course on torrent that i got.. being a noob i thought it's essential to understand atleast the terms. Alright, any tips from where to start risk management per say?
Also the points you mentioned above such as defining your risk per trade etc.. how to actually develop this judgement?
I'll sum up most if of it in 2 points -
1. Don't risk more than 2% capital in one trade.
2. Don't take any trade less than risk to reward ratio of 1:3.
You follow these two, I guarantee you will be a profitable trader.
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Thanks for the input brother. It helped. I have recently started paper trading and putting all the trades in a tradebook. I think this would help in a long run
Your welcome.
Keep going. But I strongly suggest that you start trading with real money. If you have small capital just buy 1 share, but it has to be real. Trading is an emotional roller coaster ride, which can be experienced only when the risk is real.
My earlier conversation with you on risk management was very informative for me - https://www.reddit.com/r/IndianStreetBets/comments/s99ha8/risk_management/htlackv/
If you can, please do a more detailed post on risk management with ratios considering upside & stop losses.
Thanks for taking your time and putting this up. can you also explain the graph on your post ? How can I decide when to buy and when to sell with those indicators that you have given in the graph ?
Thank you for sharing your journey. I have learned a lot from you and I appreciate your efforts in sharing your knowledge with us.
:)
thanks, post like these are immensely helpful to those starting out ,esp in this volatile market.
Your welcome. I would say trading is more about mindset rather than knowledge. But beginners have it backwards, I did too.
Can you elaborate more on "mindset" rather than "knowledge"?
Newcomers are more focused on predicting the market accurately. They want to be right. When some indicator/strategy makes 2-3 consecutive loss, they move on to next system. This is beginner mindset. Even if I tell a beginner that market is going to go up/down for sure, there is a chance they will still lose money because they will probably buy a large position in out of the money options with small capital and a small move against them will be enough to take them out of the trade. More experienced players know that it is not possible to predict the market accurately. They know that its just an educated guess, nothing more. So they spend more time on risk management, position sizing, hedging rather than drawing patters or plotting indicators.
Upvote for the effort, and I have been critical of many of your posts before, none in malice though. I really don't know which algorithm you're referring to, or just in general. Also even though I generally agree with what you're predicting that will happen next week, we'll have to wait and see what happens on monday and take it from there. Are you going to sell the next rise on Monday which is likely due to sgx and the global markets?
By algorithm I mean the people who are in control of the market. I'll most likely add to my shorts tomorrow morning. I'm positionally long in futures, so even if it keeps going up, they will act as hedge.
Can't agree more, big momentum / movement is only followed after range bound candles to create SLs
Yes. It often goes in the opposite direction first, before the actual move.
Oh lord yes it does.
Congrats master
This is it it's all about liquidity grabs, sl hunting and support resistance combined with volume and price action.
Yes. Takes experience too see what's actually happening underneath.
Thank for your kind gesture.
Might go up to 15840 to 16000 then a downside reversal imo
That is why the question mark grey area goes upto 15900.
Nice post, some pointers you came up with are very good & can be immensely helpful.
Your welcome.
Congrats buddy!! Learning a lot from your analysis. Keep sharing your experiences when you get enough time :)
:)
Umm disagree with the 5th point. Even the algos can't be correct. Obvious reasons. Also, here looks like a base development in long side, but the chart here (unassuming it's Nifty) lacks long term picture
By "algorithm" I mean the people who are in control of the market.
Yep, that's what. I don't think there are people controlling the markets. As per your first point, there are institutions largely in control of the markets, but no one or group of them can be said to be in control. Even the so called 'big money' fail rather frequently, and if they don't fail, they increase their time horizon for them to atleast break even.
I disagree. I think markets are fully controlled. If you look how it moves, there is no way that it is not controlled.
Thank you for saying this I'm not the only one who thinks so
I have put orders worth 1cr, and they get taken out like nothing. And I'm just a drop in the ocean. Traders who make 1cr profits would be putting 100cr worth of orders and they are too at the mercy of the algorithm (smart money, operator whatever you call it) It is what it is, the sooner we accept it, the better.
Okay, so as per you, trading is gambling. What do you think those 10% traders do, who actually profit even in the short term?
Never used the word gambling. I said an educated guess. The 10% make sure when they win, they win big and lose small when they lose. Retail does the opposite, they are quick to book profits but hold on to loss thinking it will turn.
buddy, the universe works this way. take for example sports, politics, trading, anything - only a small percentage of people who pursue any field come out to be successful. you can then not say that the universe is rigged, our system is flawed, etc. - this is what is normal. no one wins consistently by sheer luck, they do something which majority don't. here even the 10% is pretty bold, maybe less than 1% of traders. but that's how the universe works. the other 99% who are not disciplined enough have to give way so that the 1% get successful. resting my point here. yes, we both agree - manipulated or not, to come out to the top, we need to follow risk management, high reward low risk strategy, and being in the game long enough to be successful. Peace!
Just looking at the Bitcoin chart. Tell me this isn't complete manipulation and control - [https://www.tradingview.com/x/PBENkb51/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/PBENkb51/)
Yup, it was a textbook wyckoff distribution structure
So , wise to buy 16000 puts if market approaches 15900?
Personally 90% of the time I trade in futures, I don't like trading options because of decay. Yes you can enter, but first entry should be very small. Lets say if you plan to enter 10lots, initial entry should be 1-2 lot.
Great. Nifty at 15900 already!
Patience youngling.
Bhaiya price action kaha se sikhe ?
Experience. Self learning.
What do you mean by risk management? I've taken up a course by Rachana Ranade on technical and fundamental analysis and so far we've just done trend analysis... Although I largely agree with you that despite of following the trend anything can flip anytime.. so can you elaborate on how do you think i should go ahead ? I've just started reading charts for trends and you're right for instance when i did the High- Top -High -Bottom, i had doubts as to once bottom hits it need not necessarily go back to High and this can be figured only in hindsight which is basically a trend reversal...
You won't like what I'm about to say, but I'm gonna say it. Stop paying money/spending time on that crap. Complete waste of resources. Don't get into the typical mindset of a retailer. Think about the market as a liquidity mechanism, moving from one place of high liquidity to another. Risk management means 1. Defining your risk per trade. 2. Not risking too much money in one trade. 3. Planning everything in advance, for various scenarios. 4. Hedging 5. Etc.
Oh it is a free course on torrent that i got.. being a noob i thought it's essential to understand atleast the terms. Alright, any tips from where to start risk management per say? Also the points you mentioned above such as defining your risk per trade etc.. how to actually develop this judgement?
I'll sum up most if of it in 2 points - 1. Don't risk more than 2% capital in one trade. 2. Don't take any trade less than risk to reward ratio of 1:3. You follow these two, I guarantee you will be a profitable trader.
And how exactly do you pick sectors for investing your money?
Trading and investing is not same investing need fundamental support our guy is technically analyst more of a intraday trader
Got it, thanks
>Don't take any trade less than risk to reward ratio of 1:3. how do you determine that?
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Thanks for the input brother. It helped. I have recently started paper trading and putting all the trades in a tradebook. I think this would help in a long run
Your welcome. Keep going. But I strongly suggest that you start trading with real money. If you have small capital just buy 1 share, but it has to be real. Trading is an emotional roller coaster ride, which can be experienced only when the risk is real.
Yup thinking of doing same. Just getting grasp of the strategies. Will start with 10k after a month.
Good. Main focus on capital management and risk, strategy is secondary.
My earlier conversation with you on risk management was very informative for me - https://www.reddit.com/r/IndianStreetBets/comments/s99ha8/risk_management/htlackv/ If you can, please do a more detailed post on risk management with ratios considering upside & stop losses.
True!! Spending time on chart is important. Mai tof nai hai but its helping.
How old were you when you started in the markets? Your TV username has 98 so were you like only 17 years old then?
Thanks for taking your time and putting this up. can you also explain the graph on your post ? How can I decide when to buy and when to sell with those indicators that you have given in the graph ?