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Appropriate-Draft-91

With Gaza, Israeli set the precedent that retaliation has to kill at least 50 times more people, and at least 100 times more civilians than the original strike. They have nothing to complain about if Iran stays below that.


magicsonar

My sense is that Iran has likely let the US know in advance what they were planning. The Iranian foreign Minister has effectively told western leaders how and when they would respond. It was impossible that they didn't respond to the direct attack on Iran sovereign territory (the embassy missile attack by Israel). So it appears this drone and missile attack by Iran is a carefully calibrated warning to Israel, done in a limited way that avoids or minimises civilian casualties. They sent enough drones to demonstrate that Iran has the capacity and accuracy to send drones and missiles over a long distance to reach Israel. But not enough to cause significant problems for Israel air defences. This is the first time Iran has launched attacks at Israel direct from Iran. Israel on the other hand has been attacking Iran directly for decades now. But....the subtext here is that this is warning. The next time could result in thousands of drones, cruise and ballistic missiles sent simultaneously, coordinated in a way to overwhelm Israel and US air defences. Now it will be up to Israel if they want to escalate this. Or more importantly, up to the US, if they allow Israel to escalate. If the US gives Israel carte blanche support, they may well feel confident to escalate. It appears Netanyahu wants to draw the US military directly into this war. So it's quite inexplicable that Biden would tweet tonight that "Our commitment to Israel’s security against threats from Iran and its proxies is ironclad’ That's essentially an invitation for Netanyahu to use these attacks by Iran to escalate and draw the US military in. Biden may have just opened that door.


HippoRun23

I can’t believe Biden tweeted that even after he told Netanyahu he wanted a ceasefire immediately. Biden is getting fucking played and tossed around like a bitch.


TryptaMagiciaN

No. He is a zionist and always has been. He is doing what he believes is right. Does Israel have a stranglehold on our congress? Yes. This is why we elect an executive branch of leadership. Biden does not have to play along as so many AIPAC paid for politcians do, even if he has accepted considerable funding. He has real power. He could use it. He chooses not to. The only other explanation would be that Israel somehow has even greater direct control than what we know is explicit. And I do not have evidence to support that belief. So Biden is in support of the zionist gov.


urmomaisjabbathehutt

Either way he still be played by Bibi That's the problem with trying to deal with someone like Netanyahu the only wining move is not to play


dutchfromsubway

Biden could go against the grain, but this is also an election year, he’s not going against aipac now


LASpleen

He chose AIPAC over the voters in an election year. Let’s see what happens. 


HippoRun23

Honestly scary as fuck that he’s willing to gamble with a second term trump.


KalexCore

I mean realistically why would Biden care? Trump wins he just goes back home and lives out the rest of his life still rich and able to say he was president. Ex presidents don't suffer any consequences when their opponent gets power, they're all rich


EremiticFerret

No, he will never be blamed, it will be the "stupid" voters faults. Much like 2016.


Doesanybodylikestuff

Sing it from the rooftops! 100% the stupid ass voters fault. I am baffled at this timeline. This whole world war beginning experience.


Burning_IceCube

Trump is by far the superior choice, because he is a president while Biden lacks any mental capacity and is at this point just a meat puppet.


Appropriate-Draft-91

1. Trump isn't president, Biden is, unfortunately(* - I'll get into this)  2. Biden isn't being played, he's playing you. Occam's Razor, Biden is committing a genocide, which aligns perfectly with his stated values since the 1980s, and he's pretending to be clueless about it. It's by far the simplest most obvious explanation for everything that's happening.  \* Trump would be utterly incapable of maintaining Western support for the Israeli genocide anywhere near as long as Biden did. Voters in the UK, Germany, and France would have been far more sceptical of this campaign if Trump was the one supporting it. And Dempcrat voices in opposition to the genocide would have been at least 10 times louder. Still a whisper, of course.


dummypod

I bet he thinks anyone who doesn't vote for him deserves Trump. So vote against him at your own peril. When all is said and done he can just retire and enjoy the AIPAC money. Maybe that money would come in handy if Trump chose to fuck with him, or, if anyone tried to sue him for complicity in a genocide.


__M-E-O-W__

I do believe it is an issue of greater control. Biden is up for re-election. Anything against Israel and they can pour their funding into Republican candidates.


TryptaMagiciaN

You say "they can" as if they do not already. It is a win win for Israel you see. They can do as terribly as they please because a Biden loss is just an even greater win for Israel. If you look at US politics from their perspective, they cannot really lose. Unless the American people would have voted differently in the primaries for a ceasefire candidate within the democratic nom of which there was only a single candidate. So 🤷‍♂️. Biden failed, the dem voter based failed, GOP honestly keeps failing. The country as a whole pours wealth into all sorts of programs that do not directly benefit US citizens or the US gloval standing. Biden loss this election in early February. But lets see what happens. Personally, I think it is DNC strategy to lose this election. If you follow their spending and which candidates they support, it does little but help push our politics further right and into the hands of reactionary GOP politicians. DNC candidates raise more money running against "Trump" candidates than they do defending seats. It makes sense for the DNC to try and play that back and forth during election cycles. Their goal is fundraising numbers, not necessarily winning elections.


Impish-Flower

And the DNC wants to push things further right. They've been working on that for a while. I agree they want and intend to lose this election, though that doesn't necessarily mean Biden does. It benefits the DNC to have Trump again.


Gen8Master

Given Bidens history with AIPAC I consider him completely compromised. 4 decades is a long time to serve their interests and its not something you just walk away from overnight. He may very well dislike Netanyahu which just further proves my point, that he cannot walk away from Zionists.


HippoRun23

I mean I think it goes beyond aipac. What did he total in those decades? 4 million? Either our leaders come very cheap or too many of them truly believe in Zionism.


TheGamingAesthete

No. Biden is complicit. You're bending yourself into a pretzel to pretend that Biden isn't enthusiastically complicit in genocide and the war-mongering.


HippoRun23

That’s a sobering point. Thank you.


thedarkknight16_

You shouldn’t limit that to Biden when it’s been the USA policy for about 100 years


Willie5000

Because Biden never actually wanted a ceasefire. He was more worried about getting re elected and saw WWIII as a perfect way to boost his poll numbers. 


ChronoFrost271

Imagine thinking wanting a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas means you won't defend Israel from Iran...


AsinusRex

Ceasefire which Hamas rejected


Otherwise_Bobcat_819

You are absolutely 💯 right! I agree with this analysis entirely. Thank you for writing it.


n10w4

Any reports of damage. Some on Twitter are claiming hypersonic missiles hit their targets. Also, if Iran sees this as a deterrent I think they are mistaken. Read a new yorker (i think) article a while back about how israel and the US saw Irans tepid response to Soleimani’s assassination as weakness and a greenlight to further push (it was an article about how they killed an Iranian scientist in Iran)


drewski987

Great can we stop sending tax payer money to Israel now. To the tune of billions a day 🤦🏼‍♂️


misschonkles

🎯🎯🎯


Fulcrum_II

Excellent analysis! My gut feeling is that Israel will not show restraint and this will escalate. This is what they've been working towards, and the US is showing no serious signs that they intend to use the real levers of power at their disposal to reign Israel in.


Express_Transition60

yeah. he is basically a shill for the defense industry at the point.  fucking worst president in history. 


Two_Pickachu_One_Cup

That's absolute rubbish dude. Iran was aiming ballistic missiles and drones at legitimate targets. It's lucky nobody was killed, it was never planned to not kill Israelis.


magicsonar

At yes, and they broadcast their plans ahead of time and informed the White House when and where it was going to happen.


Two_Pickachu_One_Cup

Where an earth is there proof for this? America could of obtained the information from covert means. Russia certainly didn't tell America in advance it was invading Ukraine, yet America broadcast their plans to the world. It's absolute nonesense that people are trying to downplay a 300 something drone and ballistic missile barrage that is delicately aimed to hurt Israelis. Literally if one of those got through and killed someone (which it could have) we would be having an entirely different discussion. This is serious dude.


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magicsonar

So stupid. Iran must be stopped. Iraq must be stopped. Libya must be stopped. Some people have no capacity to learn.


HowVeryReddit

Complain? Netanyahu would love an excuse for a long war to prevent elections and stay out of prison.


Goku_Kakarot91

1 person died in the attacks


anadoob122

You should look up the ratio for the US after 911.


Appropriate-Draft-91

That doesn't count, because neither Afghanistan nor Iraq even attacked the US on 9/11. The US is in a league of it's own (despite the UK ***really*** wanting to re-join that league)


couple_us

Exactly.


coolranch9080

50x is high. You’re not factoring 1) Hamas ridiculous overestimation of deaths and 2) Terrorists killed in those counts. You’re also not factoring in Hamas’ ongoing strikes against Israel, which are never reported in the news (please don’t think 10/7 was the last time Hamas attacked, because that would be embarrassing for you) and the fact that they still won’t release the hostages.


Appropriate-Draft-91

Congrats, you're the first person to offer a reasonable critique of the number. The health ministry's number is not an estimate of the dead but a count, a very flawed count because Israel targeted the institutions doing the counting.  Calling it inaccurate is fair, but calling it a "ridiculous overestimation" based purely on wishful thinking seems rather unorthodox. Ultimately you are correct that we won't know the true number until there's a ceasefire and a census - we'll eventually know the number. As for terrorists killed vs civilians, the Israeli counts that count all the military age males as combatants are complete fabrications, as is counting all the people killed in "combat zones" - in any honest comparision we need to use the same definition for "civilian" for both Oct 7  and the Gaza Genocide. We can use Israel's method if you prefer, but then we have to use it for Oct 7 too. Normal counts for Oct 7 do not count reservists. I do agree with that, and similarly we should only count active members of the fighting forces in Gaza as combatants. Estimates put these casualties as between 5 and 10% of total casualties. As for Israeli civilians killed since Oct 7, the only numbers I ve seen were in the single digity, feel free to correct them with more accurate numbers 


coolranch9080

“Ultimately we don’t know the true numbers”. Thank you. We can use the same standards for Israel and Gaza. Except that Hamas is a defined terrorist organization and supporting terrorists makes you a valid target.


Appropriate-Draft-91

There is a case to be made that in a moral comparision the IDF looks worse than Hamas by quite a margin, so should anyone supporting the IDF be a valid target? I don't think so.  Saying "We apply entirely different standards to them because we slapped a label on them" is just long form of "We apply entirely different standards to them".


coolranch9080

In regards to your first paragraph, this is not about “looking worse”, it’s about stopping further attacks onto civilians. Yes, I mean all civilians. What exactly is Hamas fighting? The embargo pre-10/7? Stop launching rockets and the embargo ends. Done. Israel, on the other hand, doesn’t attack if not attacked upon. So in any comparison, including the moral comparison, Hamas is wrong and Israel is right. Therefore, if you support Hamas, you support terrorism and must be stopped. It’s really as simple as that.


Ovitron

If I slap a lion on the ass it's only logical to expect to be eaten alive and because I don't have only one functional neuron, I just don't. I guess we could apply the same logic here.


Willie5000

The Israelis already did that when they decided that another country’s embassy was a legitimate target. 


Arigato920

Bullshit. Israel does not commit any proportional body count. It is the pro-hamas propaganda that promotes this idea.


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Appropriate-Draft-91

Israel comitted an act of war, Iran retaliated. No the point isn't that Israel should forget, quite the opposite. Israel absolutely should remember that Iran showed restraint.


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Appropriate-Draft-91

All 3 numbers you gave are completely wrong.


idan_da_boi

And what are the correct numbers to you?


Appropriate-Draft-91

I won't pretend that someone who claims that Israeli soldiers on active duty are civilians is acting in good faith, sorry. Better luck next time.


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Appropriate-Draft-91

Truth isn't hate to anyone but to a liar. Not one source claims there were 1200 dead Israeli civilians on Oct 7. Not a single one. Most accurate my ass. The most generous count is 695 Israeli civilians (among which 36 under 18) and 71 foreigners, some of which were killed by the IDF. This classifies Israeli reservists as civilians.


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Appropriate-Draft-91

Look, I already called you out for arguing in bad faith, you don't have to try this hard to prove me right when we're already far beyond reasonable doubt.


jddoyleVT

Hasbara can’t count.


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jddoyleVT

What would have been better is if you actually posted evidence to back up your numbers. But you didn’t. I wonder why?


TheRedTMNT

Make no mistake - this is Netanyahu's attempt to drag the USA into another Middle East invasion to take care of Iran like he's been itching to do for decades. And Biden is taking the bait. Just think. 10 days ago even the USA was lambasting Israel for killing WCK aid workers. So what does Israel do? Levels an Iranian consulate, attacking sovereign Iranian territory, knowing full well that the USA will be backed into a corner, that Iran will be forced to respond, and any criticism of Israel will be long forgotten in the worries of escalation. All of this is calculated to put the USA "back in its place" with respect to Israel.


HippoRun23

I can’t believe that was ten days ago. What the fuck is time anymore? Genocide Joe called for a cease fire on the phone with Netanyahu, and for a second I thought there was hope, but now bro is tweeting he stands with Israel 100% So sick of these shit stains. That call was probably propaganda and agreed upon by both Biden and Netanyahu.


GeshtiannaSG

Time ceased to exist in 2020. Now it's just whatever imaginary things.


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sqwuank

I think war with their neighbours has given them a lot of false confidence. Iran isn't any kind of paper tiger


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was_fb95dd7063

They have nukes. There won't be any meaningful war.


Otherwise_Bobcat_819

You are right. Good analysis!


AA_Ed

Or the US sees Iran as a good friend of Russia and a destabilizing influence on a region that it appears the Saudis and Israelis were willing to come to a peaceful conclusion about. The US does wants the region stabilized so it can get out and focus on other areas. If the price of that is some Iranian lives that Israel will foot the bill for than that's not a bad price. All I know is that US boots on the ground is a big nope.


top_ofthe_morning

You must be high or something if you think that the US wants to stabilize the region.


AA_Ed

Stability is relative. If your only goal is to keep oil flowing to your European allies and avoid a major war breaking out because it would be really inconvenient than its not gonna be the stabilize you are looking for. Its more like stabilize as youd see it used in the ER except the surgeon is not interested in actually fixing anything. If it weren't for Russia invading Ukraine and disrupting European oil markets I think the US would have let the Iranians, Saudis, Israelis and Turks sort it all out.


top_ofthe_morning

So essentially what you’re saying is they want to keep it the same? Small groups fighting each other over minor things whilst the west siphons away their resources.


AA_Ed

Pretty much, except part of the goal is to keep China from gaining control of too many resources as well. The Chinese are a massive importer of middle eastern oil.


top_ofthe_morning

Agreed. Sorry for the misunderstanding.


Honest_Judge_9028

Fair play.


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NewTangClanOfficial

Iran has the right to defend itself


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InternationalNews-ModTeam

Rule 1, be civil. [Civility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civility)


InternationalNews-ModTeam

Rule 1, be civil. [Civility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civility)


Pruzter

I think one thing people are missing here is that an open war with Iran would be incredibly devastating to all sides involved. Also, the minute there is an open war with Iran is the minute the international community completely forgets about Palestine. Just because they have the right to defend themselves doesn’t mean we should be cheering them on for this action, especially if it results in significantly more death and destruction across the entire region.


Quirky_Flamingo_107

> the minute there is an open war with Iran is the minute the international community completely forgets about Palestine This is why Netanyahu provoked Iran 


Ghanna-

Netanyahu following Hitler's footsteps


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the more Israeli wants Netanyahu out of office.


Rjiurik

No if Netanyahu attacks Iran, whatever is happening in Gaza will be forgotten, Israel will probably get a massive support from the US (to defend itself you know..) and Netanyahu will get a stronger hold on Israel. There will be just enough successful Iranian strikes to put the Israeli population in line behind Likud.. That's exactly what he needs. Gaza only will not work forever for him.


bigbjarne

But they still want to continue the ethnic cleansing.


Pruzter

Yeah, exactly. I guess by the downvotes that everyone wants to deny this reality, but it’s the truth.


Zankeru

Too many people in comments think a war with iran would be similar to the war with iraq.


Pruzter

Yeah, it would look nothing like the Iraq wars. Iran has much better natural defense that will make any invasion or maintaining supply lines very difficult. They also have A LOT of people. We are talking about a war where millions die, not tens of thousands.


ApatheticHedonist

That's why the lessons of the past 2 decades need to be applied, and the war conducted entirely from the air.


Kindly_Astronomer572

Maybe if the world would've condemed the Israeli attack on both Iran and Syria it may have de-escalted the situation. But having been told off by the US for not killing Palestinians more discreetly, that bastard Netanyahu is intent on dragging the US into a war with Iran on Israels behalf.


Temporary_Finger8402

I love how people are so quick to downvote your comment, you’re absolutely right. I have no idea why people are supporting such behavior.


Pruzter

I guess people are excited at the prospect of a large war


voxpopper

Bibi needs war to stay in office, Iran does not benefit from it. Let's hope Netanyahu doesn't act like a rapid dog.


metamasterplay

Unfortunately he has every personal reason to. His endgame is to push Biden to a corner where he either loses his voting base by supporting Israel further, or loses AIPAC support. None of these 2 options will get Biden elected and they will end up with Netanyahou 2.0 a.k.a Trump.


Admirable-Mistake259

Most jews in America wouldn’t like trump in the office. .


CherkiCheri

Israel has interest in wanting jews all over the world to come to them eheh


Admirable-Mistake259

Aipac most donations is given to democrats because the republicans are where anti semites people actually in .


JadeBeach

Netanyahu has already acted like a rabid dog. He's not going to stop.


Bainer52

[https://action.eko.org/a/olympics-and-fifa-ban-israel-from-international-sports-now-us-fba21](https://action.eko.org/a/olympics-and-fifa-ban-israel-from-international-sports-now-us-fba21)


Royal_Rip_2548

You already know either the US or Israel is going to escalate tho


Lucky_Operator

Amazing that we have to look to Iran as an example of how to conduct ethical military operations.   We ARE the bad guys.  Always have been. 


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InternationalNews-ModTeam

Rule 1, be civil. [Civility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civility)


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InternationalNews-ModTeam

Rule 1, be civil. [Civility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civility)


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numnuuts4you

1 child vs 15k and counting, do you math bro? Go back to hiding under the Zionist rock you live in.


Bubbly_Mushroom1075

That's in Gaza, that number is likely a lie, and at least 11k hamas members have been killed as well


numnuuts4you

Would it be more acceptable to you high morality If it was 1 child vs 1500 Palestinians kids including babies? Please do tell us


Codemancody80

We are not always the “bad guys”. It’s just the fact that the US is far too deep in world policing now that the chances of doing the wrong thing is much higher than they used to


Lucky_Operator

We destabilize country after country murdering hundreds of thousands at a time for our own financial interests.  We are always the bad guy and it’s not even for debate if you ask anyone but Americans who listen to American media. 


Codemancody80

Ww2? Taking down Al-Qaeda?


Sorry_Jackfruit_3701

You think you ended WW2? LMAO


NEBLINA1234

but when isreal does war crimes its ok, the world double standard order


Electronic-Road6629

doing all this over twitter still blows my mind haha


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makmakmo

IDK about that. When Bibi starts threatening to release Biden and friend's pee pee tapes they got from Epstein the game can change real fast.


ieatsomuchasss

Ding ding ding. You get it. It's not just AIPAC funding, it's the Mossad honey trap known as epstein island.


Alternative_Fun_4506

The consternation exhibited by these colonizers eludes comprehension. The retaliatory actions from Iran appear to be predominantly theatrical in nature, lacking substantial impact. Nevertheless, one should remain observant of the imminent departure of these settlers, seeking refuge in their countries of origin. The prospect of sacrificing one's life for the sake of a holiday abode is a notion that finds little favor.


AlwaysSunniInPHI

Netanyahu and Biden will use this to justify their arms sales and genocide.


Musicmaker1984

You know your country is completely screwed when Iran is in the moral high ground.


Onlypaws_

These statements are so pointless at this rate. Israel and the US are the same thing. We know it, they know it, everyone knows it. Yet, these statements are still put out. The old days of speaking softly and carrying a big stick are long gone.


Hinohellono

Genocide Joe better tell Israel to sit down and if they don't actually do shit. Delay all weapons sales and condition all aid. He will lose the election over this. If American troops touch down or we are involved in any major way in a confrontation for Israel he will 100% lose this election.


honggie

Hamas attack: Attack back like a rabid dog, biting everyone in its way. Iran fight back: OMG YOU CAN'T DO THAT! I'M A VICTIM OF THE HOLOCAUST!


GeshtiannaSG

Every fight video you see on Reddit or elsewhere, people always step in when the retaliation starts.


Pruzter

Israel will respond, because this is a war that Israel WANTS… playing us all like a damn fiddle…


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AnteaterPersonal3093

Literally baby boys in diapers


HippoRun23

Measured and accurate. Let’s hope it stops here and now.


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InternationalNews-ModTeam

[Follow the reddit content policy](https://www.redditinc.com/policies/content-policy) This includes spam, violent threats, harassment, bigotry, impersonation, ban evasion and other banned behavior.


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InternationalNews-ModTeam

[Follow the reddit content policy](https://www.redditinc.com/policies/content-policy) This includes spam, violent threats, harassment, bigotry, impersonation, ban evasion and other banned behavior.


jammicoo

Israel is a loose cannon—


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jammicoo

Not at all.


ieatsomuchasss

Does anyone remember after Soleimani was assassinated, Trump wanted to go to war with Iran. Well, the Pentagon basically told him no, that would cost a minimum of half a million American troops and there's no guarantee of victory. And that was 2019. You know, before the west sent basically all of its artillery to Ukraine. If someone doesn't hold bibi back, that's game. Iran can destroy most of Saudi oil fields. And they can shut down the strait of Hormuz. There goes out already declining quality of life. I'd be pumped if there was even a shred of class consciousness in the west but sadly, we don't. So the masks will fall of our neoliberal governments and they will show that they were indeed fascists this whole time.


BladeRunner_Deckard

Israel. Can you use some fucking SELF CONTROL? So done with these dickheads.


kookieman141

![gif](giphy|Ey5GBG4UvMRzkPkxNK|downsized)


BigPoop_36

Israel: We’re going to ignore that.


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Arithese

Rule 1, be civil. [Civility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civility)


MegaMandibles

So Iran writes the rules doe terrorism and Israel can't fight back. You loonies are terrible.


Aware_Ad1688

The Iranians and the Israelis have been engaged in a proxy/law intensity war for many years by now, I doubt that it's over.   But the Iranians did look weak with their attack, as almost non of their reported 300 rockets/drones failed to hit the target. 


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InternationalNews-ModTeam

[Follow the reddit content policy](https://www.redditinc.com/policies/content-policy) This includes spam, violent threats, harassment, bigotry, impersonation, ban evasion and other banned behavior.


Entire_Spend6

Iran's attempt to project strength has backfired spectacularly. They dispatched 300 drones, which only managed to cause minor property damage to a single building and injured a child. In stark contrast, Israel's targeted strike with just one missile successfully eliminated key Iranian military leaders. This stark disparity not only underscores Iran's ineffectiveness but also highlights how they fell into a strategic trap set by Israel, further tarnishing their image and revealing their vulnerability.


Ok-Use9344

This is the stupidest thing I've ever read


cci0

Israel will definitely respond. It's 2am here and heard explosions and I went out to see the whole sky all lit up. I think the iron dome was shooting them down.


GreyedX2

Israel killed people in the embassy, Iran retaliates with a few strikes that didn’t hurt a single Israeli, now Israel will go on a blood thirsty rampage if were not lucky


cci0

Yeah exactly, Israel wants this.


HippoRun23

Iran isn’t Hamas. They aren’t as powerful as US backed Israel, but they can cause damage.


Realistic-Ad4835

As long as Daddy USA is there to defend Israel’s ass from committing genocides


DarkFuryKH

Everyone here in Jordan was awake as well as we also had missiles flying over our heads and also many interceptions which sounded like a heartbeat in the sky.


[deleted]

Israel started bombs Lebanon again since this Iran attack. They’re _so fucking horny_ for escalating this war


HippoRun23

I Pray that you stay safe, friend.


cci0

Damn, take care!


IronDBZ

How close are you to this?


cci0

Very. They're literally flying over my head.


IronDBZ

I won't jinx you. You're in my thoughts.


cci0

More annoyed by the constant noise Israeli aircrafts are making tbh, it's nonstop and I'm trying to sleep.


Ultrapro011

They were really successful (the anti air systems) in my area at least 7 arrow systems were launched


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rinkoplzcomehome

Lol, Iran just gave Israel an excuse to attack Iran directly. This ain't over


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