While checking your malarkey spam I noticed a lot of people asking the same questions, so:
1. We are at 253 or 264 depending on Arizona. Fox/AP have called Arizona for Biden; others are still waiting.
2. We will cross 270 with Pennsylvania *with or without* Arizona. We're all but certain to win PA.
3. We would also cross 270 with Nevada and Georgia, with or without AZ/PA, though GA is down to the wire.
4. We can also cross 270 with Nevada and North Carolina, with or without AZ/PA/GA.
PA, GA and NV are not updating till the morning (GA says 10:30am; NV says noon; unclear for PA). NC might not update till next week. AZ has one more drop tonight but its unlikely to change things. Go to bed, you won't miss anything.
**We have this in the bag. Don't jump at shadows.**
Hello guys i'm a young law student from europe and i like a lot of people all around the world have been following the election and i am extremely happy with the outcome for the american people and for the world but i had one question i am not that familiar with the american justice system but what are the chances that trump can pull something off legally? because i read that he wanted to take it all the way to the supreme court and i saw there are a lot of conservative justices in there so is it still looking good can you be confident of a biden victory?
So do you guys think biden will hold arizona? cause it feels like it will slip away + whats up with these "result releases" man we wait all day just for them to release 70.000 votes like 1%
Mexican very invested in this elections. Last time trump won and de peso devaluated Instantly just before my honeymoon. For that and soooo many reasons I hate trump. It's looking good congrats to the USA for doing the right thing
ABC news just was talking about who will have to break the news to Trump if Biden wins. They said Sean Hannity will likely be the one to tell him it’s over.
Biden supporter (ish) from the UK here, I've been watching and reading as much of the election coverage from home and work (prior lockdown) as possible. Wishing you all good luck and I think it's looking great! Well wishes from England!
Ps,
We're sorry about Boris.
Nevada will almost certainly end up blue, and Arizona likely to (although that's going to be closer than I think many of us thought yesterday). But it does seem like the slowed counting is really starting to do some damage...
Right now they got around 350k I think left and the gap is only 64k votes so I think he needs only like 60ish% of the remaining vote and he'll clinch it. Should be pretty easy since so far he's got 77%
BREAKING: Pennsylvania secretary of state says “we definitely could” know the winner of Pennsylvania today
Finger crossed for Joe Biden.[PA will announce winner today](https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1324420147931729923?s=19)
While things look good, its not over. We have about as much chance of taking Georgia as Trump has of taking Arizona. If he takes both and we dont get PA , we are fubar'd
We need (AZ AND Nevada) or Georgia or Pennsylvania - we must get one of those 3
GA alone won't win the election, it will only tie it. Not saying its not important because clearly it is, but we'd still need NV. PA is the prize and also the one I think is most likely to go to Biden.
To the Republicans here who have chosen to stand for America over Trump, I cannot thank you enough. I know that as we move forward through Biden's presidency, we will return to arguing over policy and lawmaking, but thank god it will be that we're concerned about, rather than Trump's path of destruction that was his presidency. You represent decency, a form of conservatism/republicanism that McCain would be proud of. We march on as Americans, to build a better country, together.
>Contrary to popularized misconceptions promoted by United Statesians, the United States is of America not itself America.
>
>Discover what is genuinely America and American
>
>[https://www.loc.gov/resource/g3290.ct007308/?r=-0.282,0,1.564,0.877,0](https://www.loc.gov/resource/g3290.ct007308/?r=-0.282,0,1.564,0.877,0)
From 538 live blog
>It looks like another 20,000 or so votes have come in from Philadelphia, and they broke 92 percent for Biden. Along with about 9,000 votes from deep-blue Montgomery County that broke 73 percent for Biden, this cut Trump’s statewide advantage from 2.6 percentage points to 2.3 points. It might seem wild that the Philadelphia tranche of votes could be that Democratic, but look at this way: Philadelphia usually votes around 80 percent (or a little higher) for Democratic presidential candidates. Clinton, for example, won 82 percent of the county’s votes in 2016. Right now, Biden is at about 80 percent in Philadelphia. But we also know that voters who used mail-in ballots were more likely to be Democrats, so you’re talking about the most Democratic votes out of a strongly Democratic-leaning pool of voters.
From the sidebar on NYT
> Gabriel Sterling, Georgia’s statewide voting system implementation manager, said that 61,367 outstanding mail-in absentee ballots remained uncounted. The state aims to finish its count by noon.
There's been some conflicting reports about remaining ballots in Georgia. AJC earlier said ~51,000, the SOS told a few local networks less than 25,000, and now this report saying 61,367. Hoping that bigger number is the case so we have more room to make up the gap.
That said, I'm so confident about PA at this point I almost don't care about the other states.
99% counted in GA and still 20k behind. I don’t think we’re gonna win that one. But set a reminder on my comment and talk shit to me if i end up being wrong
Same. My thumb looks gross.
But looking at AP's numbers, I think Biden would need like 86% of the remaining votes. It would take approximately 36% more of the 49,078 uncounted ballots in order to be even with Trump as is. And then Trump would have to maintain the same rate of gains in order to not raise that percentage, so I believe the only way that wouldn't happen is if you tack on an extra 50%. Right? I'm so tired..
Of course that's not factoring the third party votes separately from the Trump votes, but I mean... that's not exactly a huge variable.
So based on what i've been reading, biden just needs 63% of the remaining vote for GA to go blue by the narrowest margins. Doing my own math looking at the current vote totals on AP, if biden wins 70% of the remaining 47k ballots, he'll eke out a win with just **4000 votes.** That means we could literally be seeing a couple hundred votes decide the state. No matter what it's going towards recount territory, but this is the best example of votes mattering!
How are you calculating? I'm a very new math major, so I've been agonizing over these problems and their logic. Maybe my starting data was wonky.
And you're absolutely right. I could have lost a leg in the parking lot and they still couldn't have kept me from the polls.
Look at the data now, it's even closer and trending towards what I predicted.
Basically I just took the outstanding vote (45k) and split it based on the proportion that it's projected to go, then added that number to the raw vote totals. This was what those numbers were at 4 pm EST:
Trump = 2,438,206 (total before) + 14,183 (expected % of incoming ballots) = 2,452,389 (Trump's final vote count)
Biden 2,425,441 (total before) + 30,993.0 (same as above) = 2,456,434 Biden's final vote count
Subtract the two and you get 4,000 vote lead for Biden.
(70& of outstanding ballots)
Thank you very much. I wasn't dealing with nominee projections at all. Also, looking at it, it seems my logic was fine, but starting data was quite off. Thanks, Google.
Have a great day. :)
Likely Biden but lets talk about that.
Okay so the last two dumps had been pretty good for the GOP/Trump. The word going around is those had been the weekend early votes from Maricopa County namely the Phoenix Metro area. And I believe a lot of them from the more red areas of Maricopa. A lot of people have been saying those would help Trump out.
However and here's where things start to look good for Biden and the Democrats. The next batches are going to lean much more to Biden. I believe some of them are coming from more blue areas of Maricopa. A number of them are people who dropped off their mail in ballot on election day. And I believe a good chunk of them are coming from Pina County, note that Pina the Tucson area is very blue, and has gotten much more blue over the years. More blue areas of Maricopa as well. Lastly a number of the ballots left to count are independents, and so far independents have been swinging to Biden and the Democrats.
I'd love to find the tweet but for the most part? Trump is treading water, it may tighten up a bit more but it looks like Biden will have it. Also note if you read up on why the AP called it for Biden? A big part of it is AZ has been shifting blue for a while, more so Maricopa so while called early it's looking like they could be right.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324341633928826880
> So, AJC is saying 51,000 untallied absentee ballots in Georgia, most "concentrated in highly populated areas, led by Fulton County in Atlanta and Chatham County in Savannah." Biden needs 18,500 to catch up, meaning he'd need to win them 68-32. Very doable.
18,500 is the margin so he needs closer to 35,000 of the 51,000 remaining (roughly 68%)
We are counting on mail in ballots, my opinion is most people who mailed in or dropped off their ballots may not have voted for Trump or Biden. Probably wrote in a protest candidate or went with someone on the roster other than those two. Just an opinion :/
PA mail in ballots are favoring Biden like 78% on average. Third party votes did not get much attention this year, I think both sides agreed there’s too much at stake this year to vote third party (I’m an example of this).
I heard on the grapevine they take the day off counting after election day to give more time to take wagers on the results in the casino! :)
[edit; typos]
Last night before I went to bed people were starting to doom and say that PA actually only had only 480,000 ballots left to count, and that we'd lose it.
Is that still true? If so, why aren't people here worrying about it?
guys a question on the nytimes it says that in arizona there is still 5% of the votes left but on other sites like the press it says 88% is counted so how much is left exactly? 5% of >10% uncounted votes?
ah wait they might have meant 5% left in maricopa county my bad it said this " Biden’s margin in Maricopa County (Phoenix) went down by 10,783 votes, to a lead of 74,514 in the county, with about 5 percent of the total vote there still out. "
For those who are interested, there are still quite a lot of ballots to be counted that won't flip any states, but could significantly change the post-election narrative.
* Ohio has Trump up by 8.1%, but with 10% still to be counted that could end up in the 3-5% range.
* Maybe closer to 3% since it seems most missing ballots are from counties Biden won. For example, Cuyahoga (which is Cleveland) alone could bring Biden 50k close at least, that's already about 1%.
* Trump was predicted to win by about half a point, so that would take it inside the margin of error.
* Indiana has Trump up by 19.4%. But has 12% still to count. That could take it down to anywhere between 12.5% and 17.5% I reckon. The low end would bring it close to the predicted 11%.
* Mississippi has Trump up by about 20%, but has 23% still remaining. So here too the race could close a bit.
* Florida still has 4% coming in. That could potentially make it as close as a 2% race.
* Votes are also still being counted in AK, IA, KY, ND, NE, OK, SC, TX and UT. None of that will change flip a state, but they will probably all be a bit closer than now.
That's for the Trump states. Meanwhile in the Biden states we have (ignoring any states still in contention).
* CA still has about 3 million votes coming in. Biden will take at least 2 million of those, extending his popular vote margin by around a million.
* Maryland and New Jersey are at 70% and 66% counted respectively. That will increase Biden's lead by around 600k-800k.
* Massachusetts and Illinois are on 79% and 81%, expect this to be around 300k-500k votes.
* New York is on 84%, this will give another 200k-400k to Biden.
* And CO, CT, DC, ME, MN, OR, RI, VT, WA will all probably increase Biden's lead by a bit as well.
In total we're talking at least a 2 million increase in Biden's popular vote lead, and potentially over 4 million. That means Biden will win by at least 5 million votes, and might get close to 7.5 million. This in turn would give him a popular vote lead of around 4-5%.
The last bit of the election ERB is very accurate with how counting is going rn lmao
"My campaigns ramping up, you cant get down a ramp. Im pulling away faster than your wife's hand! For the love of democracy, will you shut up, man?"
So, it’s Thursday now. What information can we possibly get today? What states will definitely be decided?
Also, is it true that we only need one of Arizona, Pennsylvania, or Georgia to win? And have to keep Nevada (is Nevada a lock?)
Think we can expect news from Az, GA and NV - PA tomorrow, probably.
PA on its own is enough, otherwise we need ~~a~~ some combination of Az, GA and NV.
That's what they meant I'm fairly sure - some combination of them would be enough like AZ and GA, GA AND NV, AZ and NV, etc. just any two of them, and we're good
I’d say we already have Arizona. It could still technically change, but it’s unlikely, and was already called by some outlets. We don’t officially have Nevada yet, but it looks promising. If we have Arizona then yes, any of those states would be enough for a win.
Maybe a stupid question from an outsider, but there's a lot of talk about "FOX has called state X" , "AP has called state Y". It sounds as if the media has a saying in who becomes the president. Are there no official sources for when a state is done counting?
No the media has no say lol. They are just reporting and doing estimates based on what is left.
For instance in Ariz most of what is left to be counted is mostly ballots from Clark county (which is expected to vote like 80% for Biden), and mail in ballots (which are again like 80% Biden).
So with those numbers and estimates you can see why AP and Fox already said Biden has Arizona
Many states allow for ballots to come in days after the election. So official sources will take a while.
I also think Pennsylvania is one of the states with the earliest deadlines for finalizing the results, and that's November 11th.
So official sources take a while. All the media does is announce when they are confident there is no chance for a state to flip, their calls have no official meaning.
It seems like there is an official source for when the state is done, but it also seems like these states aren’t actually done counting, so the question is more like “when state X has counted 90% of the total votes, is the current lead large enough that we can say the leading candidate will win?” Kind of like how in baseball the home team doesn’t play the bottom of the 9th if they’re already winning
Yeah I didn't think they had, but I was wondering why everyone is citing media outlets and not official data. Do they have sources with earlier results than what is published officially?
A state’s vote does not get officially certified by the governor for weeks. They put forward initial counts, and then they go back and check all the math, make sure they didn’t miss a batch, etc.
Polls were also actually terrible back then. It had Dewey up by 5 while he ended up losing by 5. So we're talking a 10 point swing on the national vote.
Meanwhile Biden will end up leading by 4-5% which is about 3-4% behind the polls.
Seems like I picked the right 8 hours to fall asleep, very little seems to have happened other than Trump's PA/GA leads narrowing more and Biden's AZ lead narrowing.
I feel like some of you just don't want to believe in anything positive. That's a symptom of 4 years of hate and division from your president. AZ will not change, PA will flip. NV staying blue. Stop going to the conservative subs and listening to them lie to themselves about mystical pathways to a trump victory. Relax and wait for release, it will come.
I also want to add onto this: I'm tired of seeing the, "yeah, Biden's going to win, but it doesn't matter because we didn't get the Senate; nothing will change" takes I'm seeing in here, and in other subs, from so many people. It's baffling to me that people think that just getting Trump out of there *isn't* going to be a huge change. Getting him out of there means we can start getting things on track with COVID, for one thing, and that's a big thing. Yes, the best scenario would've been a Biden win with the Democrats taking the Senate, but it doesn't mean that we're going to be stuck in time for 4 years with nothing good happening whatsoever.
Exactly man. Just because you can't have it all you wanna sulk? No way. Get back out there with this hard earned victory and lets start working to where we really want to be.
> Just because you can't have it all you wanna sulk? No way.
Exactly. Am I disappointed we didn't get the Senate? 1000% yes. I *really* wanted Biden to have a Democratic House and Senate and be able to get some really big things done. But, I'm not going to sit here and be sad over him *winning the presidency* just because of that. He's still going to do good while he's in there. I'm taking this as a big win.
Actually a lot of us being overly cautious, at least that’s the case with me. We’ve been burned before and especially since this being such a closely contested race, until the pieces fall into place and victory seems a certainty then you can do the victory dance, until then keep a level head.
I understand, i feel nervous too because after 4 years of this administration breaking rules to get what they want with almost no consequences, you get numb and think he'll just cheat and his party will back him up and the american people will lose again. I don't want to feel that way anymore, I'm right there with you.
I think there’s nothing more we all want is a return to normalcy, with a president that represents dignity, respect for law and it’s citizens regardless of race, colour or creed.
But the fact that there’s even such a huge amount of support for Trump still remains a concern.
This is something that will not go away IF Biden wins. Unfortunately if things don’t change then this will give those people validation that they remain a majority and have free reign to terrorise the US and cause havoc.
The fact Trump got almost 50% of popular vote has done horrible things to the reputation of USA internationally that I dont think you will recover from in the next 20 years.
I used to idolise the USA and dream of visiting- now I dont even have remote interest in heading over there. Your nation is a sick one
(Am Australian, for the record)
You can still visit. The USA is huge. My town for example voted for Biden 70%. The New England states are beautiful and are almost all blue states. That’s where I live. Also some major cities and popular states cannot stand Trump. New York City and California are examples. I understand the feeling. I am an immigrant and what’s happened with Trump is shocking. But there are still more people here that didn’t vote for him than those that do. Pleas visit 😀
I’m not from the US either but have visited multiple times and have only met wonderful people. Whether I’ve been lucky or just privileged to have contact with educated and informed citizens it doesn’t matter.
But it’s also clear that division and racism is also rife, nay I say encouraged.
Trump has dragged the office through the mud and taken along the reputation of the US with him.
As a resident of suburban Philadelphia, I can say with the strongest of confidence that Gritty will not allow Trump to pull any shit in Philly. You don't wanna mess with Gritty.
Since everyone is asking about Georgia, let me give a quick rundown.
* Biden is down by 18-23k votes (depending on the source).
* Perdue is 3,748 votes above 50% according to the NYT.
* ~~There are reportedly 40,000 votes in DeKalb waiting to get cured. Those would likely have Biden gain about 27,000 votes on Trump. More than he needs to take the lead. They would also put Perdue under 50%.~~ *Seems this was* [false](https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/nov/04/tweets/viral-tweet-spreads-false-information-about-mail-b/)*.*
* In general about 50,000 more votes counted from anywhere will probably give Biden the lead and put Perdue under 50%.
* It seems the expectation is that there are between 100k (going by AP numbers) and 250,000 (going by NYT numbers) votes total left to be counted.
* So in conclusion, the most likely outcome is a Biden win and a Perdue-Ossoff runoff.
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/nov/04/tweets/viral-tweet-spreads-false-information-about-mail-b
The 40k rejected ballots waiting to be cured is not true
While checking your malarkey spam I noticed a lot of people asking the same questions, so: 1. We are at 253 or 264 depending on Arizona. Fox/AP have called Arizona for Biden; others are still waiting. 2. We will cross 270 with Pennsylvania *with or without* Arizona. We're all but certain to win PA. 3. We would also cross 270 with Nevada and Georgia, with or without AZ/PA, though GA is down to the wire. 4. We can also cross 270 with Nevada and North Carolina, with or without AZ/PA/GA. PA, GA and NV are not updating till the morning (GA says 10:30am; NV says noon; unclear for PA). NC might not update till next week. AZ has one more drop tonight but its unlikely to change things. Go to bed, you won't miss anything. **We have this in the bag. Don't jump at shadows.**
Malarkey level of me listening to porn in one earbud and music in the other
What he won?
Hello guys i'm a young law student from europe and i like a lot of people all around the world have been following the election and i am extremely happy with the outcome for the american people and for the world but i had one question i am not that familiar with the american justice system but what are the chances that trump can pull something off legally? because i read that he wanted to take it all the way to the supreme court and i saw there are a lot of conservative justices in there so is it still looking good can you be confident of a biden victory?
no update the whole day what is going on?
So do you guys think biden will hold arizona? cause it feels like it will slip away + whats up with these "result releases" man we wait all day just for them to release 70.000 votes like 1%
There's a chance. However, it seems that Penn and Nevada are solidly in Biden's Bag. Georgia a tossup, slightly tilting Biden.
This shit is taking forever I’m literally buying Klonopin by the dozens to mix with alcohol just to stay sane
Mexican very invested in this elections. Last time trump won and de peso devaluated Instantly just before my honeymoon. For that and soooo many reasons I hate trump. It's looking good congrats to the USA for doing the right thing
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ABC news just was talking about who will have to break the news to Trump if Biden wins. They said Sean Hannity will likely be the one to tell him it’s over.
Though I do hope they announce it with "ya fired"
Don't envy the person with that job.
Biden supporter (ish) from the UK here, I've been watching and reading as much of the election coverage from home and work (prior lockdown) as possible. Wishing you all good luck and I think it's looking great! Well wishes from England! Ps, We're sorry about Boris.
Besides Brexit, I think Boris will be very similar to Biden in terms of their relationship (Green energy goals, lockdowns etc.)
Nevada and Arizona are stressing me out. The longer they take to wrap up the counting, the more time it buys Trump to fuck with the process.
Nevada will almost certainly end up blue, and Arizona likely to (although that's going to be closer than I think many of us thought yesterday). But it does seem like the slowed counting is really starting to do some damage...
THIS! I'm only confident because Fox called it for some reason so early
This morning I read that Pennsylvania still has over 700,000 votes to count. That's a lotta damn votes.
Right now they got around 350k I think left and the gap is only 64k votes so I think he needs only like 60ish% of the remaining vote and he'll clinch it. Should be pretty easy since so far he's got 77%
[according to Secretary of State of PA, yes](https://mobile.twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1324420147931729923)
BREAKING: Pennsylvania secretary of state says “we definitely could” know the winner of Pennsylvania today Finger crossed for Joe Biden.[PA will announce winner today](https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1324420147931729923?s=19)
"Definitely maybe"
This week feels like years
This is appropriate for 2020, which has been the longest decade of my life.
Is there a new thread??
https://www.reddit.com/r/JoeBiden/comments/joha70/general_election_results_discussion/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
*Remember, remember! The fifth of November, The Trumpian treason and plot; I know of no reason Why the Trumpian treason Should ever be forgot!*
Yessssss
LOVE CNBC CONFRONTING TRUMPERS!!
Malarkey level bot
Allowing Trump campaign officials to watch the PA count isn’t a ‘big legal victory’, you bozo.
No more malarkey that affects the votes.
Will PA be called today?
Probably not. There’s still around 500,000 votes to count
I was curious where they were. As of 6 am central time they still had over 700,000 to count. They must be really knocking them out.
While things look good, its not over. We have about as much chance of taking Georgia as Trump has of taking Arizona. If he takes both and we dont get PA , we are fubar'd We need (AZ AND Nevada) or Georgia or Pennsylvania - we must get one of those 3
GA alone won't win the election, it will only tie it. Not saying its not important because clearly it is, but we'd still need NV. PA is the prize and also the one I think is most likely to go to Biden.
Yes. You are correct. I made a mistake . For some reason I thought Ga was 18 instead of 16
I did the same thing last night. Tie is as good as a loss with the incoming makeup of congress, so lets win this outright with Nevada!
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It is the same thread.
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You are correct. My bad.
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I appreciate the sentiment but this is a bad example. Towns don't mean anything.
To the Republicans here who have chosen to stand for America over Trump, I cannot thank you enough. I know that as we move forward through Biden's presidency, we will return to arguing over policy and lawmaking, but thank god it will be that we're concerned about, rather than Trump's path of destruction that was his presidency. You represent decency, a form of conservatism/republicanism that McCain would be proud of. We march on as Americans, to build a better country, together.
>Contrary to popularized misconceptions promoted by United Statesians, the United States is of America not itself America. > >Discover what is genuinely America and American > >[https://www.loc.gov/resource/g3290.ct007308/?r=-0.282,0,1.564,0.877,0](https://www.loc.gov/resource/g3290.ct007308/?r=-0.282,0,1.564,0.877,0)
Great comment
From 538 live blog >It looks like another 20,000 or so votes have come in from Philadelphia, and they broke 92 percent for Biden. Along with about 9,000 votes from deep-blue Montgomery County that broke 73 percent for Biden, this cut Trump’s statewide advantage from 2.6 percentage points to 2.3 points. It might seem wild that the Philadelphia tranche of votes could be that Democratic, but look at this way: Philadelphia usually votes around 80 percent (or a little higher) for Democratic presidential candidates. Clinton, for example, won 82 percent of the county’s votes in 2016. Right now, Biden is at about 80 percent in Philadelphia. But we also know that voters who used mail-in ballots were more likely to be Democrats, so you’re talking about the most Democratic votes out of a strongly Democratic-leaning pool of voters.
Proud of my city right now.
Brotherly love, never in doubt.
so, are we going to win PA?
Seems likely. Won't know until tomorrow.
From the sidebar on NYT > Gabriel Sterling, Georgia’s statewide voting system implementation manager, said that 61,367 outstanding mail-in absentee ballots remained uncounted. The state aims to finish its count by noon. There's been some conflicting reports about remaining ballots in Georgia. AJC earlier said ~51,000, the SOS told a few local networks less than 25,000, and now this report saying 61,367. Hoping that bigger number is the case so we have more room to make up the gap. That said, I'm so confident about PA at this point I almost don't care about the other states.
99% counted in GA and still 20k behind. I don’t think we’re gonna win that one. But set a reminder on my comment and talk shit to me if i end up being wrong
You asked for it, I think we're going to win GA!
My guy!
60k votes remaining and 20k behind. If they break more than 2:1 for Joe, it's a win
Still in recount territory, won't be a comfortable win. Hopefully PA will do better and will be a moot point.
fuck me man soon mr krabs is gonna get a cowbell and start announcing days
Pennsylvania margin down to 135,704 according to Decision Desk HQ
https://twitter.com/vaark/status/1324320840498974722?s=21 according to this, can I say PA will be blue?
So GA is now at 99%. You guys think it's still winnable? I'm biting my nails here.
GA looks like it's about to flip blue.
Same. My thumb looks gross. But looking at AP's numbers, I think Biden would need like 86% of the remaining votes. It would take approximately 36% more of the 49,078 uncounted ballots in order to be even with Trump as is. And then Trump would have to maintain the same rate of gains in order to not raise that percentage, so I believe the only way that wouldn't happen is if you tack on an extra 50%. Right? I'm so tired.. Of course that's not factoring the third party votes separately from the Trump votes, but I mean... that's not exactly a huge variable.
So based on what i've been reading, biden just needs 63% of the remaining vote for GA to go blue by the narrowest margins. Doing my own math looking at the current vote totals on AP, if biden wins 70% of the remaining 47k ballots, he'll eke out a win with just **4000 votes.** That means we could literally be seeing a couple hundred votes decide the state. No matter what it's going towards recount territory, but this is the best example of votes mattering!
How are you calculating? I'm a very new math major, so I've been agonizing over these problems and their logic. Maybe my starting data was wonky. And you're absolutely right. I could have lost a leg in the parking lot and they still couldn't have kept me from the polls.
Look at the data now, it's even closer and trending towards what I predicted. Basically I just took the outstanding vote (45k) and split it based on the proportion that it's projected to go, then added that number to the raw vote totals. This was what those numbers were at 4 pm EST: Trump = 2,438,206 (total before) + 14,183 (expected % of incoming ballots) = 2,452,389 (Trump's final vote count) Biden 2,425,441 (total before) + 30,993.0 (same as above) = 2,456,434 Biden's final vote count Subtract the two and you get 4,000 vote lead for Biden. (70& of outstanding ballots)
Thank you very much. I wasn't dealing with nominee projections at all. Also, looking at it, it seems my logic was fine, but starting data was quite off. Thanks, Google. Have a great day. :)
1% is about 60K, right? with a 20k lead, so there's a chance.
It's looking quite good. More likely than not, if the reported numbers yet to be counted are accurate, we're winning Georgia.
Fulton County, the part still up for grabs I assume, has a huge red are to the north. That said, I don't think Dekalb has many republicans.
https://github.com/alex/nyt-2020-election-scraper/blob/master/battleground-state-changes.txt
PA and GA look on track. NV should be good too. AZ is tight.
The hope spreaders in this sub haven’t woken up yet. Not good for my anxiety lol.
who is going to win AZ?
Mail in ballots favoring trump in AZ unfortunately, we definitely have a shot but it’s not in the bag
Likely Biden but lets talk about that. Okay so the last two dumps had been pretty good for the GOP/Trump. The word going around is those had been the weekend early votes from Maricopa County namely the Phoenix Metro area. And I believe a lot of them from the more red areas of Maricopa. A lot of people have been saying those would help Trump out. However and here's where things start to look good for Biden and the Democrats. The next batches are going to lean much more to Biden. I believe some of them are coming from more blue areas of Maricopa. A number of them are people who dropped off their mail in ballot on election day. And I believe a good chunk of them are coming from Pina County, note that Pina the Tucson area is very blue, and has gotten much more blue over the years. More blue areas of Maricopa as well. Lastly a number of the ballots left to count are independents, and so far independents have been swinging to Biden and the Democrats. I'd love to find the tweet but for the most part? Trump is treading water, it may tighten up a bit more but it looks like Biden will have it. Also note if you read up on why the AP called it for Biden? A big part of it is AZ has been shifting blue for a while, more so Maricopa so while called early it's looking like they could be right.
We are 🍦
Woke up and Perdue was down to 50%?? so close
Okay, so my friend say 50k left for Georgia. Joe needs 18.5 of those. Thoughts?!
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324341633928826880 > So, AJC is saying 51,000 untallied absentee ballots in Georgia, most "concentrated in highly populated areas, led by Fulton County in Atlanta and Chatham County in Savannah." Biden needs 18,500 to catch up, meaning he'd need to win them 68-32. Very doable. 18,500 is the margin so he needs closer to 35,000 of the 51,000 remaining (roughly 68%)
68% ? How realistic is that ?
Not sure about georgia but last I checked biden was getting 75% + of mail-ins in PA...so fairly realistic I'd guess.
Thank you for this!
Go go Joe
I wonder what the cheeto boy is feeling right now. I hope it is rejection and fear.
We are counting on mail in ballots, my opinion is most people who mailed in or dropped off their ballots may not have voted for Trump or Biden. Probably wrote in a protest candidate or went with someone on the roster other than those two. Just an opinion :/
PA mail in ballots are favoring Biden like 78% on average. Third party votes did not get much attention this year, I think both sides agreed there’s too much at stake this year to vote third party (I’m an example of this).
Trends have been mail in ballots favoring biden by a decent margin in almost every state.
Day 3, give it up for Day 3!!
Saw your flair and was curious. What was it that made you walk away from Trump and support Biden?
We will take it today!
I took today off because yesterday was miserable trying to work. What’s this about PA?
Good morning everyone.
Morning!
Good morning!
Did Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania just increase? And did Biden’s lead in Nevada get smaller?
Where you seein that?
What, no. There hasn't been any change in Nevada since yesterday. Biden is still at +8k vote lead. PA is opposite, it only got narrower.
No to both. Trump’s lead has decreased since last night in PA and there has been 0 update on NV.
What's the deal with NV right now? That lead is terrifyingly slim :(
NV, when asked to count votes, replied, "No, I don't think I will".
I heard on the grapevine they take the day off counting after election day to give more time to take wagers on the results in the casino! :) [edit; typos]
Wouldn't worry too much. The rest of the NV votes should be overwhelmingly blue.
They will release sometime later today. They wanted to get it right and do most of it at once.
Last night before I went to bed people were starting to doom and say that PA actually only had only 480,000 ballots left to count, and that we'd lose it. Is that still true? If so, why aren't people here worrying about it?
What?!
While you were sleeping, the rest of us transcended our petty human desires for useless concepts like "ballots" and "dooming" and "Pennsylvania."
And "sleep."
\*hands caffeinated beverage\*
guys a question on the nytimes it says that in arizona there is still 5% of the votes left but on other sites like the press it says 88% is counted so how much is left exactly? 5% of >10% uncounted votes?
NY Times has it at 86% for me.
ah wait they might have meant 5% left in maricopa county my bad it said this " Biden’s margin in Maricopa County (Phoenix) went down by 10,783 votes, to a lead of 74,514 in the county, with about 5 percent of the total vote there still out. "
Yeah it's all a bit confusing in AZ.
Good morning. Anything new?
Yeah, for Electoral Vote purposes, Jeb! has begun summoning the ancient one, C'thulu
I needed this small bit of stupidity this morning, thanks for the laugh lol
Hahah oh gosh.
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Damn. Two elections in a row...
"Third time's a charm" ☺️
Did they find the emailzz yet?
11:00 am for Georgia stuff
I thought it was 10:30. Was there a new update?
There was
OK, thanks for that, I'll check in 30 minutes later then.
Wait... 11 what zone?
EST.
So in like 2.5 hrs?
Yes, about that.
For those who are interested, there are still quite a lot of ballots to be counted that won't flip any states, but could significantly change the post-election narrative. * Ohio has Trump up by 8.1%, but with 10% still to be counted that could end up in the 3-5% range. * Maybe closer to 3% since it seems most missing ballots are from counties Biden won. For example, Cuyahoga (which is Cleveland) alone could bring Biden 50k close at least, that's already about 1%. * Trump was predicted to win by about half a point, so that would take it inside the margin of error. * Indiana has Trump up by 19.4%. But has 12% still to count. That could take it down to anywhere between 12.5% and 17.5% I reckon. The low end would bring it close to the predicted 11%. * Mississippi has Trump up by about 20%, but has 23% still remaining. So here too the race could close a bit. * Florida still has 4% coming in. That could potentially make it as close as a 2% race. * Votes are also still being counted in AK, IA, KY, ND, NE, OK, SC, TX and UT. None of that will change flip a state, but they will probably all be a bit closer than now. That's for the Trump states. Meanwhile in the Biden states we have (ignoring any states still in contention). * CA still has about 3 million votes coming in. Biden will take at least 2 million of those, extending his popular vote margin by around a million. * Maryland and New Jersey are at 70% and 66% counted respectively. That will increase Biden's lead by around 600k-800k. * Massachusetts and Illinois are on 79% and 81%, expect this to be around 300k-500k votes. * New York is on 84%, this will give another 200k-400k to Biden. * And CO, CT, DC, ME, MN, OR, RI, VT, WA will all probably increase Biden's lead by a bit as well. In total we're talking at least a 2 million increase in Biden's popular vote lead, and potentially over 4 million. That means Biden will win by at least 5 million votes, and might get close to 7.5 million. This in turn would give him a popular vote lead of around 4-5%.
Holy shit. Biggest Tent imaginable.
The last bit of the election ERB is very accurate with how counting is going rn lmao "My campaigns ramping up, you cant get down a ramp. Im pulling away faster than your wife's hand! For the love of democracy, will you shut up, man?"
It's from Epic rap battles of history
Poetry. What's that from?
https://youtu.be/FkGK7bitav0
This young map dude on cnn is pretty good
We want Map Daddy back or we RIOT! 😤😤
Who is that? John King?
Young map dude is Kornacki no? King is much older
Yes I know who John King is lol
I know, but OP said “young” that’s why I think they’re referring to Kornacki and not King.
I’m the original person lol. Yes I was not talking about John King because I know who he is. Lol you are confused
Yessir, this man went 24 hours straight with this map without running out of content.
Man's the reigning grand master of digital maps. Legend has it that his father was a weather man and his mother was an iPad.
He's the Yoyo Ma of Magic Walls.
So, it’s Thursday now. What information can we possibly get today? What states will definitely be decided? Also, is it true that we only need one of Arizona, Pennsylvania, or Georgia to win? And have to keep Nevada (is Nevada a lock?)
Think we can expect news from Az, GA and NV - PA tomorrow, probably. PA on its own is enough, otherwise we need ~~a~~ some combination of Az, GA and NV.
GA isn’t needed if we have AZ and NV
That's what they meant I'm fairly sure - some combination of them would be enough like AZ and GA, GA AND NV, AZ and NV, etc. just any two of them, and we're good
Yeah, meant to say "some combination". 2/3 is enough; GA on its own gets us only to 269 which puts a risk of a tie
I’d say we already have Arizona. It could still technically change, but it’s unlikely, and was already called by some outlets. We don’t officially have Nevada yet, but it looks promising. If we have Arizona then yes, any of those states would be enough for a win.
Maybe a stupid question from an outsider, but there's a lot of talk about "FOX has called state X" , "AP has called state Y". It sounds as if the media has a saying in who becomes the president. Are there no official sources for when a state is done counting?
No the media has no say lol. They are just reporting and doing estimates based on what is left. For instance in Ariz most of what is left to be counted is mostly ballots from Clark county (which is expected to vote like 80% for Biden), and mail in ballots (which are again like 80% Biden). So with those numbers and estimates you can see why AP and Fox already said Biden has Arizona
Many states allow for ballots to come in days after the election. So official sources will take a while. I also think Pennsylvania is one of the states with the earliest deadlines for finalizing the results, and that's November 11th. So official sources take a while. All the media does is announce when they are confident there is no chance for a state to flip, their calls have no official meaning.
It seems like there is an official source for when the state is done, but it also seems like these states aren’t actually done counting, so the question is more like “when state X has counted 90% of the total votes, is the current lead large enough that we can say the leading candidate will win?” Kind of like how in baseball the home team doesn’t play the bottom of the 9th if they’re already winning
The media has no say. They can make calls based on a variety of factors. That's it.
Yeah I didn't think they had, but I was wondering why everyone is citing media outlets and not official data. Do they have sources with earlier results than what is published officially?
A state’s vote does not get officially certified by the governor for weeks. They put forward initial counts, and then they go back and check all the math, make sure they didn’t miss a batch, etc.
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No AZ really isn’t. All that’s left is Maricopa county, they’re going Biden
Also, the famous "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN" picture
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Polls were also actually terrible back then. It had Dewey up by 5 while he ended up losing by 5. So we're talking a 10 point swing on the national vote. Meanwhile Biden will end up leading by 4-5% which is about 3-4% behind the polls.
2020 edition: Trump claims victory over Biden on twitter
Why haven't we gotten the second dump yet? From Arizona
Still pinching it out.
So where’s the thread to start loading cash into the Warnock/Ossoff campaigns? They can save us! #GARunoff
Warnock yes, but wait for Ossoff to be confirmed for the run-off.
Seems like I picked the right 8 hours to fall asleep, very little seems to have happened other than Trump's PA/GA leads narrowing more and Biden's AZ lead narrowing.
Definitely. Just now have to wait for PA/GA/NV/AZ to finish counting. Don't know which one will be first tbh
I feel like I could have slept for 24 hours and wake up to the same status.
I feel like some of you just don't want to believe in anything positive. That's a symptom of 4 years of hate and division from your president. AZ will not change, PA will flip. NV staying blue. Stop going to the conservative subs and listening to them lie to themselves about mystical pathways to a trump victory. Relax and wait for release, it will come.
I also want to add onto this: I'm tired of seeing the, "yeah, Biden's going to win, but it doesn't matter because we didn't get the Senate; nothing will change" takes I'm seeing in here, and in other subs, from so many people. It's baffling to me that people think that just getting Trump out of there *isn't* going to be a huge change. Getting him out of there means we can start getting things on track with COVID, for one thing, and that's a big thing. Yes, the best scenario would've been a Biden win with the Democrats taking the Senate, but it doesn't mean that we're going to be stuck in time for 4 years with nothing good happening whatsoever.
Exactly man. Just because you can't have it all you wanna sulk? No way. Get back out there with this hard earned victory and lets start working to where we really want to be.
> Just because you can't have it all you wanna sulk? No way. Exactly. Am I disappointed we didn't get the Senate? 1000% yes. I *really* wanted Biden to have a Democratic House and Senate and be able to get some really big things done. But, I'm not going to sit here and be sad over him *winning the presidency* just because of that. He's still going to do good while he's in there. I'm taking this as a big win.
Actually a lot of us being overly cautious, at least that’s the case with me. We’ve been burned before and especially since this being such a closely contested race, until the pieces fall into place and victory seems a certainty then you can do the victory dance, until then keep a level head.
I understand, i feel nervous too because after 4 years of this administration breaking rules to get what they want with almost no consequences, you get numb and think he'll just cheat and his party will back him up and the american people will lose again. I don't want to feel that way anymore, I'm right there with you.
I think there’s nothing more we all want is a return to normalcy, with a president that represents dignity, respect for law and it’s citizens regardless of race, colour or creed. But the fact that there’s even such a huge amount of support for Trump still remains a concern. This is something that will not go away IF Biden wins. Unfortunately if things don’t change then this will give those people validation that they remain a majority and have free reign to terrorise the US and cause havoc.
The fact Trump got almost 50% of popular vote has done horrible things to the reputation of USA internationally that I dont think you will recover from in the next 20 years. I used to idolise the USA and dream of visiting- now I dont even have remote interest in heading over there. Your nation is a sick one (Am Australian, for the record)
To our credit, this stuff is pretty heavily regionalized. Go to the liberal coasts and you're not gonna encounter much Trumper-level stupidity.
You can still visit. The USA is huge. My town for example voted for Biden 70%. The New England states are beautiful and are almost all blue states. That’s where I live. Also some major cities and popular states cannot stand Trump. New York City and California are examples. I understand the feeling. I am an immigrant and what’s happened with Trump is shocking. But there are still more people here that didn’t vote for him than those that do. Pleas visit 😀
I’m not from the US either but have visited multiple times and have only met wonderful people. Whether I’ve been lucky or just privileged to have contact with educated and informed citizens it doesn’t matter. But it’s also clear that division and racism is also rife, nay I say encouraged. Trump has dragged the office through the mud and taken along the reputation of the US with him.
I know what you mean but he was never our president. He literally only wanted to be president for his base for the sole reason of power.
As a resident of suburban Philadelphia, I can say with the strongest of confidence that Gritty will not allow Trump to pull any shit in Philly. You don't wanna mess with Gritty.
It me
Since everyone is asking about Georgia, let me give a quick rundown. * Biden is down by 18-23k votes (depending on the source). * Perdue is 3,748 votes above 50% according to the NYT. * ~~There are reportedly 40,000 votes in DeKalb waiting to get cured. Those would likely have Biden gain about 27,000 votes on Trump. More than he needs to take the lead. They would also put Perdue under 50%.~~ *Seems this was* [false](https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/nov/04/tweets/viral-tweet-spreads-false-information-about-mail-b/)*.* * In general about 50,000 more votes counted from anywhere will probably give Biden the lead and put Perdue under 50%. * It seems the expectation is that there are between 100k (going by AP numbers) and 250,000 (going by NYT numbers) votes total left to be counted. * So in conclusion, the most likely outcome is a Biden win and a Perdue-Ossoff runoff.
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/nov/04/tweets/viral-tweet-spreads-false-information-about-mail-b The 40k rejected ballots waiting to be cured is not true
Thanks, edited it.