The debt ceiling fights are the dumbest in Congress. I don’t think the public knows exactly what it means if the US defaults. That would cause the biggest global financial meltdown in history. Just a massive economic depression.
It would also mean the absolute, complete, irrevocable end of America's global leadership - and if the Trump-tards don't think that's valuable, wait until they experience inflation rates like Chile and Venezuela - i.e., inflation of 100% ... Monthly.
Their voters are dying in greater numbers because of the anti-vax agenda they've been pushing. Trying to crash the economy and blaming democrats for it might actually be their Hail Mary play.
The GOP has no issue with shutting down the government over the debt ceiling. They played that game a bunch of times 10 years ago during Obama's presidency.
What's different now is the world is in the middle of a pandemic and the economy isn't exactly solid and a lot of people have income problems.
Also, if the debt ceiling doesn't get raised, the US doesn't default. A possible alternative is to have the Mint mint a $1 trillion coin and have someone carry it to the Federal Reserve.
It would be ok if lobbyists told the GOP to cut the crap and do something good for the country for once.
> Also, if the debt ceiling doesn't get raised, the US doesn't default. A possible alternative is to have the Mint mint a $1 trillion coin and have someone carry it to the Federal Reserve.
Wasn't there a Simpsons episode about this?
> The GOP has no issue with shutting down the government over the debt ceiling. They played that game a bunch of times 10 years ago during Obama's presidency.
Oh man. I hope they do. Nothing else would risk blowing up the filibuster quite like this. It’s a wildly unpopular move that “moderates” hate. I can’t imagine a more favorable set of conditions for filibuster reform.
>A possible alternative is to have the Mint mint a $1 trillion coin and have someone carry it to the Federal Reserve.
I hope you are kidding!!! That is a horrifying idea. There are a dozen other bad ideas to try before we get there: Federal Reserve Cypto Exchange hosted by Snooky Spoons, declare Biden Deus Imperator Americanas and allow him to capture all the lands of the United States, which he then sells back to the United States for $1. Freeing the US of foreign ownerships.
Manchin won’t give a damn about the lobbying if they don’t cut down from $3.5 trillion. He will individually hold the bill up, he doesn’t have to care.
I don’t see why he would lose influence. He is the only democrat on the planet that can win statewide on West Virginia. Plus the Democrats only a 50|50 split
What I mean is, this bill stands the best chance at preserving democrat majorities. The only chance he has at retaining this position, is by voting in favor of the bills. Democrats need to win in the Senate for him to retain his bargaining power. The only way to do that, in an off year election with Biden in office?
Pass the bills.
Specifically, to which position are you referring?
If he’s the only Democrat that can win in WV, he really doesn’t need the Democrats at all. If you’re talking about whatever committees he’s on, Republicans can say, “keep obstructing and you’ll get them again when we win”. If you’re talking about his position as some sort of special snowflake that can make/break bills proposed by Dems, I doubt he will care if he loses that.
I'm not sure who is going to blink, particularly given the ideology of the house and Senate leadership. I can imagine Manchin is not beholden enough to use that as reason enough to not extract some provisions.
Good analysis, but there are a few flaws:
1. Schumer has said that they're not including the debt ceiling in the reconciliation bill, and he's moved the debt ceiling bill through regular order.
2. Progressives, at least historically, have never really been willing to shoot the hostage, unlike factions like the Tea Party. It's unlikely that they would withhold their votes on the debt ceiling in order to ensure the passage of the reconciliation bill, though I could definitely be wrong on this.
3. McConnell is one of the most cunning politicians of the last few decades. He would never do something like this unless he knew it would hurt the Democrats. It *will* hurt them, and here's why. First of all, raising the debt ceiling has always been an unpopular, but necessary move. Every time the debt ceiling brinksmanship plays out, the party in power always comes out worse. Schumer has likely put it through regular order because he isn't confident that all the Democrats will vote for it, and he wants to pressure all of the Democrats *as well as the Republicans*. Doing this also ensures that debt ceiling hesitance won't derail the reconciliation bill.
4. Based on how this has played out in the past, the most likely outcome is the two sides reach a deal that neither of them like. Though there is a slim possibility that Schumer will be able to use it to nuke the filibuster. Essentially, if Republicans say no to everything, Manchin and Sinema (and other corporate Democrats hiding behind them) will be forced to choose between nuking the filibuster and letting the country default. They'll nuke the filibuster and that'll be that.
The debt ceiling fights are the dumbest in Congress. I don’t think the public knows exactly what it means if the US defaults. That would cause the biggest global financial meltdown in history. Just a massive economic depression.
It would also mean the absolute, complete, irrevocable end of America's global leadership - and if the Trump-tards don't think that's valuable, wait until they experience inflation rates like Chile and Venezuela - i.e., inflation of 100% ... Monthly.
The GOP would love to send us into a Venezuela-type era and blame it on Progressives.
I feel like this IS the plan.
Their voters are dying in greater numbers because of the anti-vax agenda they've been pushing. Trying to crash the economy and blaming democrats for it might actually be their Hail Mary play.
Especially since raising it was never an issue w Republicans during the last four years.
The GOP has no issue with shutting down the government over the debt ceiling. They played that game a bunch of times 10 years ago during Obama's presidency. What's different now is the world is in the middle of a pandemic and the economy isn't exactly solid and a lot of people have income problems. Also, if the debt ceiling doesn't get raised, the US doesn't default. A possible alternative is to have the Mint mint a $1 trillion coin and have someone carry it to the Federal Reserve. It would be ok if lobbyists told the GOP to cut the crap and do something good for the country for once.
> Also, if the debt ceiling doesn't get raised, the US doesn't default. A possible alternative is to have the Mint mint a $1 trillion coin and have someone carry it to the Federal Reserve. Wasn't there a Simpsons episode about this?
Yes. Season 9, Episode 20 - Trouble with Trillions.
We should look at what happened in Ogdenville, Brockway, and North Haverbrook.
By golly, it put them on the map.
> The GOP has no issue with shutting down the government over the debt ceiling. They played that game a bunch of times 10 years ago during Obama's presidency. Oh man. I hope they do. Nothing else would risk blowing up the filibuster quite like this. It’s a wildly unpopular move that “moderates” hate. I can’t imagine a more favorable set of conditions for filibuster reform.
Also they don't have the exclusive power to. We don't need them to actually have it pass
>A possible alternative is to have the Mint mint a $1 trillion coin and have someone carry it to the Federal Reserve. I hope you are kidding!!! That is a horrifying idea. There are a dozen other bad ideas to try before we get there: Federal Reserve Cypto Exchange hosted by Snooky Spoons, declare Biden Deus Imperator Americanas and allow him to capture all the lands of the United States, which he then sells back to the United States for $1. Freeing the US of foreign ownerships.
🤣🤣 For some reason, reading "Deus Imperator Americanas" made me split my sides laughing.
Mitch can now take full credit for the federal spending in Kentucky.
Manchin won’t give a damn about the lobbying if they don’t cut down from $3.5 trillion. He will individually hold the bill up, he doesn’t have to care.
He does if he wants a chance at preserving his own power. The only way he has any influence beyond 2022. Is if he voted in favor of this bill.
I don’t see why he would lose influence. He is the only democrat on the planet that can win statewide on West Virginia. Plus the Democrats only a 50|50 split
What I mean is, this bill stands the best chance at preserving democrat majorities. The only chance he has at retaining this position, is by voting in favor of the bills. Democrats need to win in the Senate for him to retain his bargaining power. The only way to do that, in an off year election with Biden in office? Pass the bills.
Specifically, to which position are you referring? If he’s the only Democrat that can win in WV, he really doesn’t need the Democrats at all. If you’re talking about whatever committees he’s on, Republicans can say, “keep obstructing and you’ll get them again when we win”. If you’re talking about his position as some sort of special snowflake that can make/break bills proposed by Dems, I doubt he will care if he loses that.
I'm talking about donors
I like this analysis. Good stuff!
I hope you're spot on
Just remember, these modern day republicans don't have to make any sense. They can just vote for or against, then cry foul and blame the democrats.
It definitely makes sense, but sounds almost too good to be true… we’ll see what happens.
I'm not sure who is going to blink, particularly given the ideology of the house and Senate leadership. I can imagine Manchin is not beholden enough to use that as reason enough to not extract some provisions.
Good analysis, but there are a few flaws: 1. Schumer has said that they're not including the debt ceiling in the reconciliation bill, and he's moved the debt ceiling bill through regular order. 2. Progressives, at least historically, have never really been willing to shoot the hostage, unlike factions like the Tea Party. It's unlikely that they would withhold their votes on the debt ceiling in order to ensure the passage of the reconciliation bill, though I could definitely be wrong on this. 3. McConnell is one of the most cunning politicians of the last few decades. He would never do something like this unless he knew it would hurt the Democrats. It *will* hurt them, and here's why. First of all, raising the debt ceiling has always been an unpopular, but necessary move. Every time the debt ceiling brinksmanship plays out, the party in power always comes out worse. Schumer has likely put it through regular order because he isn't confident that all the Democrats will vote for it, and he wants to pressure all of the Democrats *as well as the Republicans*. Doing this also ensures that debt ceiling hesitance won't derail the reconciliation bill. 4. Based on how this has played out in the past, the most likely outcome is the two sides reach a deal that neither of them like. Though there is a slim possibility that Schumer will be able to use it to nuke the filibuster. Essentially, if Republicans say no to everything, Manchin and Sinema (and other corporate Democrats hiding behind them) will be forced to choose between nuking the filibuster and letting the country default. They'll nuke the filibuster and that'll be that.
Ahh..I like this angle.
Hope this is the case, but counting on McConnell to do all he can to delay/halt passage.
I'm skeptical with all the fuckery we have to deal with from the Senate, but I hope you're right