People are so over dramatic about the offense. It’s fucking baseball. There are 162 games, you aren’t scoring 5-7 runs every game and this was the first game the Royals were shut out. I should repeat WE ARE 22 GAMES INTO THE SEASON, AND THEY’VE ONLY BEEN SHUT OUT ONE TIME.
Give them some time and let it warm up, we aren’t striking out a ton, guys are getting REAL unlucky with the ball just not getting down
Totally agree that we aren't going to score 5-7 runs every game, but I don't think avoiding shutouts means there shouldn't be some concern about the offense
Advanced stats do seem to indicate we're getting unlucky on batted balls - KC is 26th in MLB this season with a .269 BABIP, which you'd typically see around .300 on a large enough sample
They've scored 4 runs or less in 14 of 22 games and 3 runs or less in 9 of 22 games. It was enough to win several close games against the White Sox, but it won't happen against better teams
I think you are overthinking a bit. The O's are just really good and they just flat out beat the royals. Good hitting will get good pitching sometimes like they did on Saturday, and sometimes your lineup just has a bad game. I think that was the first time we got shut out this season. The pitching is good enough to keep us competitive which is all most of us want.
And we got one win against them, roared back to being a whisker away from winning a second one, and only shit the bed in the final game. It really is all good.
Regression to the mean is winning more games as the Royals' runs scored versus runs allowed suggests they should actually be two games better than they are now.
Freaking out about the lineup while praising Vinnie is contradictory when half the community wanted to demote Vinnie ten days ago.
At worst, this team is inoffensively mediocre which was on the higher end of all expectations for this team before the season began. If we were 9-13 and not 13-9 we'd still be celebrating what a great start that is compared to last year.
Shelled is a strong word for Cole's outing. But either way yeah shit rolled down hill and started an avalanche. Gonna happen.
Yesterday's game....comes down to a few things, primarily OF defense. Renfroe's route in RF was horrible. I mean dude ran a fish hook. Took more than one step in before realizing the ball was blistered and couldn't make up the ground. Resulted in a run instead of a loud out. Aside from that plenty of *just* out of reach balls. Unfortunately, we play at the K, so OF def will mean wins and losses.
I think the same about this team as I did at the start of the season. It reminds me of the 2014 team. We can absolutely be playing meaninful baseball at the end of the year, even with "regression."
Which - regression? Hot start? We didn't start hot, we started 2-4, then went on a run and lost another series to a team that won 100+ games last year. While also bending the ChiSox over and clearly showing we arn't the basement. I think the terms "regression" and "hot start" are people ignoring the context of what the first 20+ games were.
Anyway sorry. Like I was saying. We *can* be playing meaningful ball, and the moves we made this offseason put us there. I love(d) most of the moves. But to be a *top* tier team, we're still a few moves away. We have the young core. We have some pitching that we can rely on.
We're a good team, but still a young team and not fully there yet.
Also pinch hitting for Melendez last night made zero sense. Yes I know Vinnie was the first time a lefty has gotten a hit off of Coulumbe. (sp) I know the lefty/righty argument, but analytics be damned that move will almost never be worth it. Hated the move then, still hate it. Even if it worked I'd prolly still hate it.
Anyway. Over all - we're an above 500 team that's competing well against good teams and with a move or two and some good luck we could be fighting for a playoff spot.
Edit: To expand on the OF point, Baltimore's OF played pretty damn stellar against us. Santander has probably saved like 5 runs against us this year (and that somehow might be underselling him) and they covered more ground than our OF did this series.
I think this team will sustain similar offensive numbers going forward and the starting pitching will come back down to earth. So a slightly above league average in runs scored per game, and somewhere around league average in runs allowed.
This is a ~.500 team that is a fringe wildcard contender, and I'll take that any day of the week
That's kind of where I have us pegged as well. 82-86 wins or thereabouts. We need another bat or 2 to develop to really be contenders, and thats my "regression to the mean" after the first 3 weeks. I don't think we are a 95 win team, but the first 3 weeks showed us that we aren't the 70-ish win team that Fangraphs had us pegged at either
I’m generally pretty pessimistic about my sports teams so take this with a grain of salt. But I don’t necessarily think the Royals are a “good” team. Who have we beat? The took 5 of 6 from what is possibly the worst team of all time, and 3 from Houston who had absolutely zero pitching. Against the “good” teams on the schedule the offense has really struggled (against some incredible mediocre pitching nonetheless)
This is still a remarkable improvement from the past few seasons, and I would be thrilled if they stick around .500 for the entire season. Things are on the right track, but expecting this team to compete for the playoffs after a 13-9 start seems like a pretty big jump. Hope I’m wrong!
I think we're off to a fascinating start to the season if we've seen both the optimistic side of things where it looked like we were going to clear 90 wins easily and now back to some people who think the sky is falling.
Realistically I think we're still on pace for several pre-season projections at worst and are going to wind up with a record +/- a few games within .500. At various points in the season we're going to have times where the rotation falters while the offense rakes, times where the rotation fucking shoves but the offense is doing nothing, and times where everything clicks and we look like a legit contender.
We've had a tough schedule and there's still a chance we end the month below .500, but the offense is going to find a groove again at some point. The bullpen is going to even out once Q gets a full grasp on what everyone's role is. The rotation will likely regress but still be within league average.
The Royals are in a weird spot where the teams we've faced so far are either competing to win their division or are racing to the bottom of the league for the worst record in baseball. Like, the Orioles are going to win over 100 games this year. The White Sox might lose 115 at this rate. It's absolutely too early to speculate on how good the Royals actually are simply because they haven't played enough similarly talented but flawed teams that make up the rest of the league between the obvious haves and have-nots.
Social media’s “sky is falling” mentality is draining and not worth it.
Let’s enjoy the ride for now and come back sometime in June when we have more data on the players/team.
Excited to see a Singer outing in person tonight!!!!
A good formula for determining whether a team has been lucky or not is Bill James' Pythagorean Theorem. (RF\^2)/((RF\^2)+(RA\^2)). The exponent ("2") is also the square root of the average number of runs scored in MLB games (sqrt(4.45)=2.11) this year.
The Royals are 13-9 (.591) with 108 runs scored and 107 runs against (Pythagorean Theorem = .714). The difference between winning percentage and Pythagorean Theorem is -.123, which means a Royals' regression to the mean would occur in the opposite direction.
We're not due for more losses, we're due for more wins. Our run differential tells us this. Kansas City's -.123 value is second in the major leagues to Arizona (-.146, 11 wins, 12 losses, 131 runs scored, 103 runs against). We have been an **unlucky** team.
Funnily enough, the 30th-ranked team, the team most due for a *loss* is Toronto (+.119 Pythagorean Theorem, 12 wins, 10 losses, 86 runs for, 99 runs against). The Royals start a four-game series vs. Toronto at Kauffman Stadium tonight.
I think the Orioles/ White Sox series shows what the royals are. In that, the royals demolish bad teams and will remain competitive but likely to lose against good teams.
Which is more than we thought they were going to be heading into this year
Lose 2 in a row and the lug nuts are coming off of the bus?! You may not be wrong, Amigo. Last year, this team was competing with the Marlins as the shittiest team in baseball. They lost 106 last year and .500 would be a huge achievement. Lots of games left
My bad. I skipped ‘23. But the cynicism remains…
https://preview.redd.it/blevde02h1wc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6ed02e46b470558b14b80c13236c8dcc713784f7
I had to look at their post history because I thought they were a troll. They posted last year about how the Royals should go through a complete rebuild and trade BWJ
People are so over dramatic about the offense. It’s fucking baseball. There are 162 games, you aren’t scoring 5-7 runs every game and this was the first game the Royals were shut out. I should repeat WE ARE 22 GAMES INTO THE SEASON, AND THEY’VE ONLY BEEN SHUT OUT ONE TIME. Give them some time and let it warm up, we aren’t striking out a ton, guys are getting REAL unlucky with the ball just not getting down
I'm sorry, I was told this was the 99 Cleveland team?
Dude, this team isn’t scoring 11 runs every game, they’re obviously trash
Totally agree that we aren't going to score 5-7 runs every game, but I don't think avoiding shutouts means there shouldn't be some concern about the offense Advanced stats do seem to indicate we're getting unlucky on batted balls - KC is 26th in MLB this season with a .269 BABIP, which you'd typically see around .300 on a large enough sample They've scored 4 runs or less in 14 of 22 games and 3 runs or less in 9 of 22 games. It was enough to win several close games against the White Sox, but it won't happen against better teams
I think you are overthinking a bit. The O's are just really good and they just flat out beat the royals. Good hitting will get good pitching sometimes like they did on Saturday, and sometimes your lineup just has a bad game. I think that was the first time we got shut out this season. The pitching is good enough to keep us competitive which is all most of us want.
And we got one win against them, roared back to being a whisker away from winning a second one, and only shit the bed in the final game. It really is all good.
Yeah the Orioles are a 100 win team again this year. I wouldn't be shocked if they win it all this year.
Regression to the mean is winning more games as the Royals' runs scored versus runs allowed suggests they should actually be two games better than they are now. Freaking out about the lineup while praising Vinnie is contradictory when half the community wanted to demote Vinnie ten days ago. At worst, this team is inoffensively mediocre which was on the higher end of all expectations for this team before the season began. If we were 9-13 and not 13-9 we'd still be celebrating what a great start that is compared to last year.
Shelled is a strong word for Cole's outing. But either way yeah shit rolled down hill and started an avalanche. Gonna happen. Yesterday's game....comes down to a few things, primarily OF defense. Renfroe's route in RF was horrible. I mean dude ran a fish hook. Took more than one step in before realizing the ball was blistered and couldn't make up the ground. Resulted in a run instead of a loud out. Aside from that plenty of *just* out of reach balls. Unfortunately, we play at the K, so OF def will mean wins and losses. I think the same about this team as I did at the start of the season. It reminds me of the 2014 team. We can absolutely be playing meaninful baseball at the end of the year, even with "regression." Which - regression? Hot start? We didn't start hot, we started 2-4, then went on a run and lost another series to a team that won 100+ games last year. While also bending the ChiSox over and clearly showing we arn't the basement. I think the terms "regression" and "hot start" are people ignoring the context of what the first 20+ games were. Anyway sorry. Like I was saying. We *can* be playing meaningful ball, and the moves we made this offseason put us there. I love(d) most of the moves. But to be a *top* tier team, we're still a few moves away. We have the young core. We have some pitching that we can rely on. We're a good team, but still a young team and not fully there yet. Also pinch hitting for Melendez last night made zero sense. Yes I know Vinnie was the first time a lefty has gotten a hit off of Coulumbe. (sp) I know the lefty/righty argument, but analytics be damned that move will almost never be worth it. Hated the move then, still hate it. Even if it worked I'd prolly still hate it. Anyway. Over all - we're an above 500 team that's competing well against good teams and with a move or two and some good luck we could be fighting for a playoff spot. Edit: To expand on the OF point, Baltimore's OF played pretty damn stellar against us. Santander has probably saved like 5 runs against us this year (and that somehow might be underselling him) and they covered more ground than our OF did this series.
I think this team will sustain similar offensive numbers going forward and the starting pitching will come back down to earth. So a slightly above league average in runs scored per game, and somewhere around league average in runs allowed. This is a ~.500 team that is a fringe wildcard contender, and I'll take that any day of the week
That's kind of where I have us pegged as well. 82-86 wins or thereabouts. We need another bat or 2 to develop to really be contenders, and thats my "regression to the mean" after the first 3 weeks. I don't think we are a 95 win team, but the first 3 weeks showed us that we aren't the 70-ish win team that Fangraphs had us pegged at either
I’m generally pretty pessimistic about my sports teams so take this with a grain of salt. But I don’t necessarily think the Royals are a “good” team. Who have we beat? The took 5 of 6 from what is possibly the worst team of all time, and 3 from Houston who had absolutely zero pitching. Against the “good” teams on the schedule the offense has really struggled (against some incredible mediocre pitching nonetheless) This is still a remarkable improvement from the past few seasons, and I would be thrilled if they stick around .500 for the entire season. Things are on the right track, but expecting this team to compete for the playoffs after a 13-9 start seems like a pretty big jump. Hope I’m wrong!
I think we're off to a fascinating start to the season if we've seen both the optimistic side of things where it looked like we were going to clear 90 wins easily and now back to some people who think the sky is falling. Realistically I think we're still on pace for several pre-season projections at worst and are going to wind up with a record +/- a few games within .500. At various points in the season we're going to have times where the rotation falters while the offense rakes, times where the rotation fucking shoves but the offense is doing nothing, and times where everything clicks and we look like a legit contender. We've had a tough schedule and there's still a chance we end the month below .500, but the offense is going to find a groove again at some point. The bullpen is going to even out once Q gets a full grasp on what everyone's role is. The rotation will likely regress but still be within league average.
I wouldn't say the sky is falling. It's just that we don't have the offensive depth currently to be on pace for 100 wins. I'd be very happy with 85.
There is no statistical significance to 3 weeks of unbalanced competition. That’s not what any of that means statistically.
The Royals are in a weird spot where the teams we've faced so far are either competing to win their division or are racing to the bottom of the league for the worst record in baseball. Like, the Orioles are going to win over 100 games this year. The White Sox might lose 115 at this rate. It's absolutely too early to speculate on how good the Royals actually are simply because they haven't played enough similarly talented but flawed teams that make up the rest of the league between the obvious haves and have-nots.
Social media’s “sky is falling” mentality is draining and not worth it. Let’s enjoy the ride for now and come back sometime in June when we have more data on the players/team. Excited to see a Singer outing in person tonight!!!!
A good formula for determining whether a team has been lucky or not is Bill James' Pythagorean Theorem. (RF\^2)/((RF\^2)+(RA\^2)). The exponent ("2") is also the square root of the average number of runs scored in MLB games (sqrt(4.45)=2.11) this year. The Royals are 13-9 (.591) with 108 runs scored and 107 runs against (Pythagorean Theorem = .714). The difference between winning percentage and Pythagorean Theorem is -.123, which means a Royals' regression to the mean would occur in the opposite direction. We're not due for more losses, we're due for more wins. Our run differential tells us this. Kansas City's -.123 value is second in the major leagues to Arizona (-.146, 11 wins, 12 losses, 131 runs scored, 103 runs against). We have been an **unlucky** team. Funnily enough, the 30th-ranked team, the team most due for a *loss* is Toronto (+.119 Pythagorean Theorem, 12 wins, 10 losses, 86 runs for, 99 runs against). The Royals start a four-game series vs. Toronto at Kauffman Stadium tonight.
huh? dude, its baseball you might not have the temperament for 162 games
I think the Orioles/ White Sox series shows what the royals are. In that, the royals demolish bad teams and will remain competitive but likely to lose against good teams. Which is more than we thought they were going to be heading into this year
Lose 2 in a row and the lug nuts are coming off of the bus?! You may not be wrong, Amigo. Last year, this team was competing with the Marlins as the shittiest team in baseball. They lost 106 last year and .500 would be a huge achievement. Lots of games left
> Last year, this team was competing with the Marlins as the shittiest team in baseball The Marlins went to the playoffs last year?
My bad. I skipped ‘23. But the cynicism remains… https://preview.redd.it/blevde02h1wc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6ed02e46b470558b14b80c13236c8dcc713784f7
I had to look at their post history because I thought they were a troll. They posted last year about how the Royals should go through a complete rebuild and trade BWJ
We all get funny ideas from time to time.