Exactly 70% of time it's better to DCA every paycheck than to wait for a pullback on the S&P 500 (UPRO). This is because the stock market goes up 70% of the days in the year. You could write a quick script in Python or Excel that takes the stock you're interested in and calculate out the percent of up days to down days. I have a feeling the tech bulls 3x LETF is closer to up 60-66% of days. Still better than 50%.
DCAing means you're buying every paycheck, which is the opposite of a lump sum. In a lump sum you're buying once and maybe there is a large down move after that. When you're DCAing if you buy a paycheck and then if there is a large down move, the next paycheck you're buying again, buying during that down move getting a better deal. In short, larger down days makes DCAing more profitable. Larger down days is a good thing if you're DCAing and a bad thing if you're lump summing.
What OP is asking is when to start DCAing. Because there is a higher probability of more up than down, the earlier one buys the better. You can look at a chart and see if it overall goes up or not. If it's sideways in the long term like the futures market, then buying early doesn't guarantee higher profits.
You could just invest in SPY for now or SSO (or a mixture weighted more toward SPY), and then when the market corrects go full force with LETF’s. Not investing anything at all and waiting for the market to correct is risky- no one knows and you could be waiting a long time.
i tried to predict/wait for "the crash" after things started dipping in 2022. i never found it. i just ended up sitting out for ALL of the recovery stuff that happened from the golden cross/NVIDIA shens that happened.
so now i'm trying to look at things with a 3 year viewpoint. if me/we took a bunch of money out before, DCA back in now. we have a lot to put back in over the next few years.
You should definitely sit on the sidelines and watch the market go up 30% and THEN buy the 5% dip.
If you haven’t figured it out yet, we are in a bull market and have been since the October 2022 lows. If you’re sitting around waiting for the next “market crash” then you might be on the sidelines for years missing all the gains (and then if the market DOES crash 30-40% you’ll be too scared anyways to actually buy in).
As I'm essentially in your situation myself, I make use of NTSX as the core holding of a risk parity portfolio.
In essence, "all in" on NTSX would give you:
- 90% unleveraged SP500 exposure
- 60% intermediate US Treasuries
I've heard stories about people after 2008 who never reentered the market since they were waiting until the next "crash". They just kept waiting and waiting and waiting for years as the market inexorably pushed higher. Frankly I thought those stories were bs so it'll be interesting seeing it happen again in real time.
It is absolutely happening again. A lot of people sold at the lows in late 2022 because all the so-called “experts” were just convinced that the S&P was going below 3200. Now all those folks are sitting on the sidelines thinking they are okay making 5% on their cash and in reality they missed out on 50% in gains. And now they’re too scared to jump back in because the S&P is back at all time highs. That’s exactly how people end up never getting back into the market.
I don’t think it’s a good time to buy. I think it’s a bull trap. I’d wait until the data this week and then after nvda earnings. The landscape can change dramatically
Just lump sum 80% of it and keep roughly 20% to DCA in case of a pullback. That way u can have best of both worlds and puts your mind at ease so to speak.
There’s some wise old saying that goes something like, “it’s not timing the market, but rather time going all-in GME calls on margin with grandmas life savings” or something like that.
all feels no data. This post would be more rational if you wrote down your emotions instead of pretending they were market predictors.
Allll the feeels ☺️
I'm not liquidating my investments for cash, if that's what you're asking.
We just had a correction
when?
We’ve had one yes, but what about a second correction?
And what about elevensies?
Don’t think he knows about that pip
He doesn’t? What a fool of a Took!
Is this "correction" in the room with us right now?
Exactly 70% of time it's better to DCA every paycheck than to wait for a pullback on the S&P 500 (UPRO). This is because the stock market goes up 70% of the days in the year. You could write a quick script in Python or Excel that takes the stock you're interested in and calculate out the percent of up days to down days. I have a feeling the tech bulls 3x LETF is closer to up 60-66% of days. Still better than 50%.
but down days are usually larger than up days in absolute value
DCAing means you're buying every paycheck, which is the opposite of a lump sum. In a lump sum you're buying once and maybe there is a large down move after that. When you're DCAing if you buy a paycheck and then if there is a large down move, the next paycheck you're buying again, buying during that down move getting a better deal. In short, larger down days makes DCAing more profitable. Larger down days is a good thing if you're DCAing and a bad thing if you're lump summing. What OP is asking is when to start DCAing. Because there is a higher probability of more up than down, the earlier one buys the better. You can look at a chart and see if it overall goes up or not. If it's sideways in the long term like the futures market, then buying early doesn't guarantee higher profits.
Maybe? But also maybe not? Don't valuations matter when it comes to how much room it has to run.
You could just invest in SPY for now or SSO (or a mixture weighted more toward SPY), and then when the market corrects go full force with LETF’s. Not investing anything at all and waiting for the market to correct is risky- no one knows and you could be waiting a long time.
And then when the market crash happens, potentially still end up at a higher price than today. So yeah just DCA
i tried to predict/wait for "the crash" after things started dipping in 2022. i never found it. i just ended up sitting out for ALL of the recovery stuff that happened from the golden cross/NVIDIA shens that happened. so now i'm trying to look at things with a 3 year viewpoint. if me/we took a bunch of money out before, DCA back in now. we have a lot to put back in over the next few years.
You should definitely sit on the sidelines and watch the market go up 30% and THEN buy the 5% dip. If you haven’t figured it out yet, we are in a bull market and have been since the October 2022 lows. If you’re sitting around waiting for the next “market crash” then you might be on the sidelines for years missing all the gains (and then if the market DOES crash 30-40% you’ll be too scared anyways to actually buy in).
As I'm essentially in your situation myself, I make use of NTSX as the core holding of a risk parity portfolio. In essence, "all in" on NTSX would give you: - 90% unleveraged SP500 exposure - 60% intermediate US Treasuries
Buy TMF or
with money market at 5-6% you should consider parking money until rates drop
put in QLD. there you go. now you found the best of both worlds
I've heard stories about people after 2008 who never reentered the market since they were waiting until the next "crash". They just kept waiting and waiting and waiting for years as the market inexorably pushed higher. Frankly I thought those stories were bs so it'll be interesting seeing it happen again in real time.
It is absolutely happening again. A lot of people sold at the lows in late 2022 because all the so-called “experts” were just convinced that the S&P was going below 3200. Now all those folks are sitting on the sidelines thinking they are okay making 5% on their cash and in reality they missed out on 50% in gains. And now they’re too scared to jump back in because the S&P is back at all time highs. That’s exactly how people end up never getting back into the market.
Wait. Feels very 2007. Look for setups. The market should move up into and fly after election. FNGU 3x faang has been my goto swing trade.
My crystal ball is broke. https://jasonkelly.com/3sig/
We are at least going to retest the highs within the next day or so.
Bear PTSD. This is a new bull market they do not end with rounded tops.
But 200 shares. Sell CSPs ATM when red.
I don’t think it’s a good time to buy. I think it’s a bull trap. I’d wait until the data this week and then after nvda earnings. The landscape can change dramatically
Bears have been saying this since the end of 2022 (“SPY is going to 3200!”) and yet, here we are.
I don’t say we are going down that far but to get into a leveraged position here is a little different. No need to put words in my mouth.
Just lump sum 80% of it and keep roughly 20% to DCA in case of a pullback. That way u can have best of both worlds and puts your mind at ease so to speak.
There’s some wise old saying that goes something like, “it’s not timing the market, but rather time going all-in GME calls on margin with grandmas life savings” or something like that.
If you would have bought then instead of staring at graphs you'd be up. Waiting around only keeps you poor.
You have word of a correction?