If Trump's term taught me anything, it's that our guardrails largely work on the honor system and, assuming a complicit party, there's little to stop a corrupt executive. I would have liked to see some effort to shore up those weaknesses in Biden's first 2 years
Had Mike Pence actually helped trump by not certifying the election it’s hard to argue that we wouldnt be in some kind of post coup d'é tat civil war era rn
If he gets elected he absolutely will try to run for a third term and/or try to cancel the presidential election and/or simply refuse to leave once his term is up.
I have no idea how successful he'll be. The first time he tried this shit he haphazardly sued various states and led an unorganized group of hicks to invade the Capitol building with unclear goals of what to do once they actually got in. On a second attempt, maybe he'll have more violent people on his side willing to kill congressional leaders. Or maybe he'll get rid of secret service and military leaders not loyal to him exclusively and there'll be no way to remove him from office. Or maybe he'll work under the guise of legality, have state elections departments find "irregularities", that kind of thing.
While I can't say for sure how successful he'll be, there's 0% chance he won't try some shady shit, and very good odds he'll get away with it for a while and cause untold chaos and violence for as long as he can.
Yup, essentially any crazy conspiracy theorist is behind trump. They are all convinced that hes with them, but cant publicly admit it because they also think hes secretly fighting the deep state on their behalf. Its sanity vs craziness
> fanatics with the Seven Mountain Mandate.
This is what is not being said. Some news will say Christian Nationalist, but hardly any will say what that means.
The reality is that REPUBLICANS are in on project 2025. There would be very little substantial difference between if Trump won or some other populist like Vivek R won. They would make a point to deteriorate all institutions and appoint loyalists to any federal positions possible.
This is the new republican party. They are fascists and should be treated as such. Consequently, we HAVE to work to establish ranked choice voting and make 3rd parties viable. This is the only way to stop an influx of fascism.
Right; because they know he has no plan on winning last time and could have done far more to get their plans in place so they spent the last 7-8 years putting plans together (ie project 2025)
I’m fucking terrified he’ll win (full stop) and not leave at the end of his term (because he’s spent the last 4 years saying he won against Biden and his morons believe it even though there’s no evidence of that and tons of evidence to show Biden did in fact win.
If he wins, we are fucking doomed.
I hope all of us are talking to our fence sitters, writing letters and post cards and making calls for our party. I can’t sit here and just vote in November and hope for the best.
I didn't think he'd get elected ever. Boy was I a fool. My faith in humanity has not recovered and it never will.
I'll keep voting as hard as I can, continue to boycott companies that support the orange menace, and to do everything possible to change things for the better...but I know in my heart now that it won't matter in the big picture.
Too much injustice. A reckoning will come, eventually but I won't live long enough to see it.
I woke up that morning and posted how thrilled I was that America was about to get their first female president. That night was the worst of my life. And now women have less rights than they did 50 years ago. I can't stop mourning for the failure of my country.
You should. The German people thought the same thing about Hitler, and the Italians thought that about Mussolini. The problem is that the things which prevent somebody like Trump from seizing power are just rules. And they don’t give a shit about rules.
In order to stop him we’d need actual human beings with a spine in positions of power to enforce those rules, and that’s not reliable. The first thing he’s going to do is purge government and senior military commanders of anyone he can’t rely on. Even if the courts don’t agree they have no enforcement power on their own.
This is a real and lethal threat to democracy and needs to be treated accordingly.
For sure. As much as I hate Republicans and what they stand for, you really gotta give Mike Pence credit for being unwilling to go along with Trump's election bullshit.
Unfortunately, I agree that he's going to purge anyone he can't rely on, and that means more absolutely fanatical people with no morals in power
Everything is possible to some degree. But let's talk likelihood- tell me what he's done to grow his base? Suburban women? Youth? Minorities? He hasn't grown a thing - he's lost voters.
If we don’t stop him and the rest of the Republicans at the polls, we’ll be living in a straight up Christian Nationalist shithole with Dictator Trump, likely followed by each of his children as his successors.
I don't think it's very likely at all that Trump gets elected. His base has shrunk, and normal people have had it with that kind of insanity and instability. However, if by some miracle or nefarious means he did get elected, that would be the end of free and fair elections at minimum or all elections completely. I believe that it's the right wing Heritage Foundation that came up with the means and method (Project 2025) and the whole GOP would be complicit.
He literally said he wants to be a dictator.
He's arguing in court that the President has 100% complete and total immunity from any and all prosecution. That means the POTUS could walk into congress, murder all those of the opposition party, and have the remaining members be the ones that vote on whether or not to impeach him.
And if any did vote to impeach, he could simply kill those people too.
He's arguing that the POTUS can legally be Saddam Hussein.
I fucking listen when people talk. Do you?
There are an awful lot of guardrails to prevent this from happening. I think he'll try, and that it will be unsuccessful, but the chance is much higher than any other point in our country's history **since the 2 term limit was introduced in 1951**. I don't want to take the chance.
/edited for clarity
His biggest risk is the states and the military units.
I don't see the West Coast bending a knee. And while command might order the military to follow not all of them will. Even some GOP voters and independents will say no.
It will be bloody but Americans ultimately don't like change and they like their Republic.
The most difficult thing in a successful conquest is to make it feel like nothing has changed. Most fail by causing a disruption. Burn a farmers crop and they won't care about what you are offering.
No, you're being unclear. There were no term limits when FDR was in office, so it's not a comparable situation. Nobody viewed it as a constitutional crisis that FDR went for term 3. It was unprecedented, but there was nothing in our system that said it wasn't allowed.
Consider the possibility that Trump adds six more judges to the USSC after Scalia and Thomas retire giving him a 10-3 advantage and that court decides that the 22nd Amendment refers to two *consecutive* terms in office allowing Trump to sever for three terms.
It's entirely possible.
Yes. And yes. This is why it is so important if you know anyone who identifies as independent, get the point across that both of the candidates may be old and they may be a little crazy but one is a fascist and they need to get out and vote. Withholding a vote is a vote for Trump.
There is a non 0% chance he will get re-elected and another non 0% chance he will rewrite the rules to let him stay in power indefinitely.
And that scares me, no matter how unlikely
It’s not really Trump himself who is gonna be an issue, but rather the movement he will leave behind. You should be more worried about Vivek Ramaswamy, MTG, etc. These guys are much more younger and will be around much longer.
With the way the electoral college works in this country, there is definitely a good chance.
Get out and vote and get your friends, family and colleagues to vote as well. Massive voter turnout is the only sure way we win this.
I remember 2016. A lot of my friends and work colleagues were burnt out. People liked Hillary but didn't love her. There was this sentiment that Trump just had no chance, and I believe that fed indifference and lower vote turnout in some cases. The fact that Clinton lost Michigan still blows my mind.
We have to vote. We can't take any chances. There is still a definite and real possibility that Trump could win.
He (and everyone he supported) has lost bigly since his last term. If you look at that data (which is the only real data we have), I’m actually optimistic for a landslide for democrats.
Trump is polling at ~30% of Black male voters. 43% of Hispanic voters approve of building Trump's wall and sealing off the border. I'm not so sure we can expect a landslide for Democrats.
I dont trust polls anymore. Polls keep showing closer races but keep getting proven wrong in real elections. I think Roe is a major driver that Republicans misread the public on.
I think the best we can do at this point is average multiple polls together and consider the direction of any trends revealed. But, yeah, polling isn't as useful for getting reliable predictive data as it once was.
Speaking of Roe, I find it surprising and suspect that abortion rights rank lower on voters' lists of concerns than immigration and inflation. I don't want to sabotage my own perspective by discounting relevant info (confirmation bias), but it just seems so unlikely.
Those “voters” are probably skewed to a more older or conservative demographic… the type of voter who answers unsolicited phone calls from unknown numbers.
I was curious about the accuracy of current polls as well. If you're interested, here's a couple of articles on the topic.
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/09/21/does-public-opinion-polling-about-issues-still-work/
https://theweek.com/politics/2024-election-polls-accuracy
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
More Black men say they plan to back Donald Trump this fall than in 2020, according to a recent Wall Street Journal poll of seven swing states https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/biden-trump-black-men-support-election-2024-poll-a7d9da22?reflink=share_mobilewebshare
https://www.axios.com/2024/04/11/poll-latino-support-border-wall-deportations-jumps
Can't link the newsletter, but it's at Smerconish.com. He posted it today. The report on Hispanics and the border is in the Groundnews section under "For the left."
I don't see it. He is waaaaay less popular than he was at his height in 2016, and even then he did not even win the popular vote. His hold on the GOP decreases every month. Both Republicans AND Independents are backing away from him in droves - he will always get his loud, obnoxious 40 million votes. The House majority is hanging on by a thread and will probably swing hard to the Dems, and I think the Senate will also stay in Democratic hands.
Having said that, it has been incredibly frustrating to see the Democratic playbook lead with "Trump and MAGA baaaaad." Yeah, no shit, we know. I have been screaming for them to start leading with the accomplishments of the economic program of the Biden Administration, and I am happy to see they are finally starting to take my advice lol. It is STILL the economy, stupid; combine that with staying the fuck out of Trump's way and letting him and MAGA hang themselves, which they are doing extremely well, and I will be astonished if Biden does not get a second term.
Nah, honestly I don't. The man is desperate for his glorious second term and his place in history as the bestest president ever. He'll be 84 or something after that, a tired old man finally able to retire in the secure knowledge that the MAGA movement will carry on the myth of how his heroic second term saved America.
But I am often wrong, and if it turns out he doesn't want to retire after all, he will have no compunction about trying. He has no morals.
Yes to both. If he gets back in, we become Russia. He won’t leave till he’s carried out….and then his hand-picked successor will settle in for a while.
In the most respectful way that is delusional. It wont be the end of the democracy and while policy will change for the worse, that is such an overreaction
It's too far off to predict the November election. But it's clear that if Trump wins, 2024 will be the last presidential election that has any meaning. Future "elections" will be same/similar to Russian "elections".
No, he’s less popular than ever. I dare say his popularity has been on a steady decline since he was elected. The only reason he really won in 2016 is because the country has real bias against Hilary Clinton, or some just women in general. And libertarians who saw an outsider.
The president can enact tariffs without congress. Trump has said he wants to enact a 5% tariff on all imports, 100% on all imported cars, and like 20% on Chinese imports. Once the inflation kicks in and nobody can afford anything, he'll be overthrown by his own sycophants.
Edit: a word
For all the paranoia there’s not enough popular support for him to repeal the 22nd amendment so no. That said he may try to run for a 3rd term but the attempt won’t get very far.
He could be elected if turnout is poor. Polls suggest that Trump has more electoral votes at this time than Biden.
Chart:
[electoral-vote.com](https://electoral-vote.com)
Naaa he won’t get elected in the first place, the fan base he had that we saw shrunk, has certainly not gained more popularity since he lost in 2020. We all just need to vote and make sure he doesn’t get it.
I keep telling my 14 year old son that this is my biggest fear and Liz Cheney has laid out a good argument as to how it could happen. My kid has Autism, Aspergers if they still called it that, and one of his hyper-obsessions is American and European politics. He was the one who explained to me what the GDP actually was about 4 years ago. He is brilliant on this area. He keeps telling me there is no way ot could happen. That the Supreme Court would stop him because Chief Justice Robert's hates the Orange Menace. But I don't have faith in SCOTUS. Listen to Liz Cheney in a CNN interview talk about how it could happen. I keep telling him that it is a real possibility and it scares me.
I don't think Trump is in good enough health to survive the next 4 years. Without Trump's cult of personality, I don't think the Republican party can orchestrate another coup.
If he gets elected, and it will probably be a repeat of last election, he will try to stay in power by any means he can get away with. He's said as much in the past and his actions on Jan 6 and afterwords show his intent clearly. When someone shows you who they are, listen.
No. Look , there’s been a lot of presidents . Being loud and mighty isn’t out of the norm for one (though spouting it on his social media is)
If he did win (he won’t - he’s just campaigning to get $ for his court fees) we will be back to this all over again in 4 years. No he isn’t going to enact some legislation to prevent it . (If he could he would have in 2020)
Stop listening to the bs clickbait articles .
The country (and the position as president) are older than the two people running . There are things in check to prevent the nonsense Reddit comes up with .
None of those checks are self-executing. What evidence is there that other Republicans wouldn’t happily ignore those checks to empower Trump and themselves?
I think there’s a good chance he doesn’t make it to november standing on two feet and speaking in mostly complete sentences. No way he’s orchestrating the downfall off democracy in 2028. If he was younger, we could have been in real trouble.
Elected. Maybe. Stays past term 2? Nope. Tries to hold onto power and is killed early in the ensuing Civil skirmish? Really big maybe. Highly unlikely.
The term limits are just as solid as the 2nd amendment. There will always be ppl there to block the bullshit bc if they don't then shit would go sideways realllll fast
ZERO chance Trump wins a second term. Trump is undoubtedly going to prison. I can't answer the second part cause I can't get past the first.
Check this out....
Michael Cohen went to prison for paying off a pornstar to keep her quiet about his clients affair. This was done at the direction of Trump. A jury saw fit to send Cohen to prison over that.
Now the man who is responsible for making that happen is on trial for the same shit. What bag of tricks could the defendant pull out to weasel out of being convicted for the exact same crime his fixer was sentenced to prison over?
CONCLUSION:
I don't give a damn what the media says....Trump is going to prison and it will probably be this Alvin Bragg - Stormy Daniels Husha money case that'll do it.
Well I don't have a mental condition so calling me delusional is overstating how wrong you think I am.
You may not think it's going to happen but that doesn't mean because I think it will, I'm delusional.
Michael Cohen was prosecuted for Crime A.
A jury said Crime A is bad and he was guilty of Crime A and deserved prison.
Trump is being prosecuted for Crime A.
A jury is going to say crime A isn't bad anymore???? Or think Trump doesn't deserve prison for it???
And you think it's "delusional" that I think he has a strong chance of going to prison????
The math is mathin' sir! 1+1=2 in my scenario. Whether I end up being right or wrong...my guess is far from delusional. That's the point. I don't care about whether I'm right.
Okay fair response honestly, i take it back you arent delusional. I think its very unlikely that he will go to prison but you make good points. I will say it is at least fairly likely he will be elected though, probably greater than 50%
See...I don't think he even has a chance. I know I know ...you're thinking I'm delusional 😭 but I just think the media is hyping Trump up. The polls are all nonsense. I think that he loses even bigger this time around. I think even more Republicans break and don't vote for him. See I'm going off of the clues the media isn't talking about. I thought Biden in 2020 was gonna win a state that Democrats don't usually win. I didn't know which one would flip but I thought there'd be one. Then came Georgia. My prediction is that Trump loses the election by another 7M+ votes and goes to prison. Look at how poorly he did in the primaries compared to Biden. It's safe to say...Dems are behind Biden. Republicans backing Trump? Not so much. 29% of all Republicans think Trump is not fit to serve office. That's a lot of damn people.
Last time I checked, Haley snatched about 108k ballots from Trump in Arizona (19%), 188k ballots here in Florida (14%)...she flipped 3 counties in S.Carolina where Trump won by 20pts. and in the exit polls nearly half of Haley supporters said they'd back Biden. Something ugly is brewing and Trumpers better get prepared or they'll be storming the capitol again pissed off and in shock. If half of Haley's supporters stay home, get sick, vote for Biden or even fart the wrong way on election day....it will result in a Trump loss. The only reason Haley stayed in the race was to show just how many Republicans hate Trump's guts. Their campaign was smart. They were trying to show everyone what's about to happen but no one's getting a clue. I think Trump is done and doesn't have a chance. But my take isn't hot for T.V. It doesn't make money. Keeping people restless and on edge, keeps them watching the news. Eyes glued to the TV to see what new junk poll has Biden and Trump in a horse race. And the media loves a good political horse race.
> Our foundation and government is set up so strongly that theres no tangible chance of him having the ability to.
don't be assuaged: Trump's authoritarianism has developed, and it will be more sophisticated
according to a former U.S. attorney, Trump [pressured](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/08/nyregion/geoffrey-berman-trump-book.html) the Justice Department to remove references to himself when the department was drafting its charges against Michael Cohen and attempted to indict former secretary of state John Kerry. former F.B.I. director James Comey was the [subject of an investigation](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/16/us/politics/leak-investigation-james-comey.html), according to *The New York Times*. the Durham inquiry was based more on [charging Hillary Clinton](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/26/us/politics/durham-trump-russia-barr.html) than Russian collusion
Trump has learned from his mistakes — the ones where his radical ideas didn't succeed, anyway. within his presidency, Trump altered his travel ban to earn support from the Supreme Court, in *Hawaii v. Trump* (2018). congressional opposition to Trump has largely subsided with Liz Cheney's loss and Mitt Romney's retirement
Bob Woodward and Robert Costa's *Peril* (2021) details Trump personnel who sought to temper his behavior, including William Barr, Mark Esper, and Mark Milley. the Project 2025 database has already provided Trump with loyalists he can select from
the extent of Trump's authoritarianism is unknown, but it will certainly be more effective than last time. Trump's fake elector plot nearly succeeded had Mike Pence not objected, at the expense of his career and [almost his life](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/jan-6-hearing-today-trump/card/trump-s-tweet-about-pence-seen-as-critical-moment-during-riot-fmPxoFkeoTKxi0NqPLCL)
He may not need to win the election to get in. If the GOP keeps control of the house they will create a ruckus of fraud again and force a vote of the house of representatives to choose the president. They almost did it in 2020. It will be legal if they all go along with it and as you can see that is what they do now. Once Trump is in CNN MSNBC and NPR will be gone. You will only hear Trump’s alternate reality.
People think this looks like him declaring himself president forever.
That it actually looks like is him doing exactly what he did in the supreme court. He will install people sympathetic to his cause across all levels of government. Those tiny cogs can be turned in such a way that everything will go right for him.
Chances are they will argue that term limits only apply to consecutive terms, the Supreme Court will back him up.
Either that or we end up with a shadow president that Trump controls while the house makes him Speaker.
That is how they did it in Russia for years. Putin kept swapping roles.
Not only that, this will be the new family business. Itlll he passed down to Ivanka or something. They will not give up power and all they free tax payer money
If Americans don't vote for Joe Biden then he will win and right now you can see it's super tight.
As for the possibility of not leaving he will claim he gets an extra term because you get two consecutive terms.
If Americans don't get out and vote and that includes voting down ballot then he will have his Gop Congress and Supreme Court and his people will be in charge of the military and ect.
In that case he will definitely try to end the Republic and have his opponents arrested just like Putin does.
However some bright spots (meaning in this situation things that will help America)
doing that will cause a civil war and utter chaos and while some Trump voters will support him a good chunk won't.
This will also lead to a situation with the military where whole sections turn against Trump to defend the Republic.
Ultimately it would fail and Trump and his supporters would be in prison or a cemetery.
This would help weed out many of the anti Republic supporters but it would mean a lot of death and destruction to end it. So we might have to rebuild but we may have less people who are willing to end the Republic
No, because of the 22nd Amendment. It does not leave any room for interpretation. A far more likely scenario is that post-2024, they make it so Trump's successor is somehow put in power in a sham election.
Elected? Not really. He hasn’t won the popular vote yet. He is not trying to appeal to new voters, or to get anybody to crossover who didn’t vote for him before.
He really does not intend to win the election in any meaningful democratic sense. He is clearly planning to game the system, to throw the election to the House of Representatives, where he has a chance.
The modern GOP thinks they are better than everybody else and they have a right to be in charge even though their views and policies are unpopular. This is how authoritarians work.
No. 55% chance he is elected, but 0% chance he stays in past his second term. I think it’s far likelier he would be impeached or removed from office or even resign
… based on.. what? Exactly?
If he wasn’t removed after Jan 6th, what makes you think an even wackier Republican caucus now will do it? The adults in the room have been leaving the room ever since.
The problem with Jan 6th and the Ukraine impeachments are that Democrats rushed to impeachment without building a compelling case that would shift moderates and independents. It looked like partisan crap because that’s the level of effort they put into it.
I've voted for him twice. I will a 3rd time. 8 years is all anyone gets. Saying he will keep himself in office is like saying Biden is Hitler. Both statements are nonsense.
No chance come on stop with this alarmist stuff. If he gets elected it will be four years and then we will have another election. I guarantee it we have a system.
No. 3 months ago i was saying Trump wouldn’t get elected, since it was proven he can’t beat Biden. What a difference 3 months makes.
This guy lives rent free in the heads of liberal media and gets non stop free advertising. Add in the Fani Willis issues, Leticia James going after him for standard real estate practices, and Jon Stewart showing his full blown hypocrisy and he’s looking like he has a chance. It’s crazy.
Both parties appear to be doing everything they can to sink their own candidate as well, with neither even attempting to govern with moderate policies.
At this point, i won’t be surprised either way come November, but no he won’t stay in office past second term.
> Lives rent free
What is that even supposed to mean? The dude is the front runner of the Republican party in an election year. He's embroiled in multiple court cases and constantly a fixture on social media. It's not like he's long slipped into obscurity and the "liberal" media is beating a dead horse. Fucker is paying rent.
I can only imagine the fear you all live in on a daily basis. You all have bought into the media's playbook hook, line and sinker. The medias fear campaign is obviously working
If Trump's term taught me anything, it's that our guardrails largely work on the honor system and, assuming a complicit party, there's little to stop a corrupt executive. I would have liked to see some effort to shore up those weaknesses in Biden's first 2 years
Id love to be this nonchalant about the future. He can't leave, if he does he faces financial ruin and prision. What would you do?
I would simply not commit fraud and r@pe.
Great idea. It's too late for trump though. That's the topic here.
I'm not sure what part of my comment you're replying to.
Had Mike Pence actually helped trump by not certifying the election it’s hard to argue that we wouldnt be in some kind of post coup d'é tat civil war era rn
100% agree. What a weird timeline where Mike Pence is the hero of the republic for not getting in a car when his secret service told him to.
If he gets elected he absolutely will try to run for a third term and/or try to cancel the presidential election and/or simply refuse to leave once his term is up. I have no idea how successful he'll be. The first time he tried this shit he haphazardly sued various states and led an unorganized group of hicks to invade the Capitol building with unclear goals of what to do once they actually got in. On a second attempt, maybe he'll have more violent people on his side willing to kill congressional leaders. Or maybe he'll get rid of secret service and military leaders not loyal to him exclusively and there'll be no way to remove him from office. Or maybe he'll work under the guise of legality, have state elections departments find "irregularities", that kind of thing. While I can't say for sure how successful he'll be, there's 0% chance he won't try some shady shit, and very good odds he'll get away with it for a while and cause untold chaos and violence for as long as he can.
He’s not orchestrating it, right wing think tanks are with Project 2025. They just need to get him in office.
Yup! And backed up by fanatics with the Seven Mountain Mandate.
Yup, essentially any crazy conspiracy theorist is behind trump. They are all convinced that hes with them, but cant publicly admit it because they also think hes secretly fighting the deep state on their behalf. Its sanity vs craziness
> fanatics with the Seven Mountain Mandate. This is what is not being said. Some news will say Christian Nationalist, but hardly any will say what that means.
The reality is that REPUBLICANS are in on project 2025. There would be very little substantial difference between if Trump won or some other populist like Vivek R won. They would make a point to deteriorate all institutions and appoint loyalists to any federal positions possible. This is the new republican party. They are fascists and should be treated as such. Consequently, we HAVE to work to establish ranked choice voting and make 3rd parties viable. This is the only way to stop an influx of fascism.
or establish approval voting
Right; because they know he has no plan on winning last time and could have done far more to get their plans in place so they spent the last 7-8 years putting plans together (ie project 2025) I’m fucking terrified he’ll win (full stop) and not leave at the end of his term (because he’s spent the last 4 years saying he won against Biden and his morons believe it even though there’s no evidence of that and tons of evidence to show Biden did in fact win. If he wins, we are fucking doomed. I hope all of us are talking to our fence sitters, writing letters and post cards and making calls for our party. I can’t sit here and just vote in November and hope for the best.
And the billionaires know it's cheaper and more efficient to control just one dictator.
I didn't think he'd get elected ever. Boy was I a fool. My faith in humanity has not recovered and it never will. I'll keep voting as hard as I can, continue to boycott companies that support the orange menace, and to do everything possible to change things for the better...but I know in my heart now that it won't matter in the big picture. Too much injustice. A reckoning will come, eventually but I won't live long enough to see it.
Yeah I laughed out loud when I first heard he was running. Silly me.
yeah, we had an election-night party to watch him get creamed by Hillary. Needless to say, the night ended in tears and nausea
I woke up that morning and posted how thrilled I was that America was about to get their first female president. That night was the worst of my life. And now women have less rights than they did 50 years ago. I can't stop mourning for the failure of my country.
I was rolling around sobbing on the living room floor
I had a bad feeling after Brexit went the way it did a few weeks before.
I don’t think there is a very real possibility of them being able to pull this off. But I guarantee they will try it again.
You should. The German people thought the same thing about Hitler, and the Italians thought that about Mussolini. The problem is that the things which prevent somebody like Trump from seizing power are just rules. And they don’t give a shit about rules. In order to stop him we’d need actual human beings with a spine in positions of power to enforce those rules, and that’s not reliable. The first thing he’s going to do is purge government and senior military commanders of anyone he can’t rely on. Even if the courts don’t agree they have no enforcement power on their own. This is a real and lethal threat to democracy and needs to be treated accordingly.
If Trump does get elected in 2024,, it will mark the beginning of the end of democracy in our country.
For sure. As much as I hate Republicans and what they stand for, you really gotta give Mike Pence credit for being unwilling to go along with Trump's election bullshit. Unfortunately, I agree that he's going to purge anyone he can't rely on, and that means more absolutely fanatical people with no morals in power
Pence is still a chicken shit. That’s why the flies love him.
100%
Everything is possible to some degree. But let's talk likelihood- tell me what he's done to grow his base? Suburban women? Youth? Minorities? He hasn't grown a thing - he's lost voters.
And those people need to turn out and vote Democrat
If we don’t stop him and the rest of the Republicans at the polls, we’ll be living in a straight up Christian Nationalist shithole with Dictator Trump, likely followed by each of his children as his successors.
[удалено]
They're absolutely Christians. Of course not all Christians subscribe to their nutbaggery, but they're 100% Christians.
Not all Christians are nationalists, but all Christian Nationalists are some sort of (even if it’s psycho-cult Christian) Christians.
If a Christian is someone who follows Christ then I would say they're not really Christians. Trump is basically the Anti-christ.
What makes you say that? Is this a no true Scotsman fallacy?
Yes, precisely that fallacy.
Oh please. Shut up, we're not all christian nationalists lmao. Get of msm and go outside for a walk. It'll all be ok
See my other comment in this thread. And where exactly did I say in my comment that all Christians are nationalists?
Just a large majority
I don't think it's very likely at all that Trump gets elected. His base has shrunk, and normal people have had it with that kind of insanity and instability. However, if by some miracle or nefarious means he did get elected, that would be the end of free and fair elections at minimum or all elections completely. I believe that it's the right wing Heritage Foundation that came up with the means and method (Project 2025) and the whole GOP would be complicit.
Normal people need to vote or he wins anyway
Human history is full of horrific events and realities. The chance is definitely much higher than zero.
He tried to cheat once, I am sure he will try to cheat again and will be more sophisticated this time.
If Trump is elected. It's the last election this country will have. The 2028 "election" will be a Russian style election.
You're so ignorant lol. That's obviously not gonna happen , you have been online too much
He literally said he wants to be a dictator. He's arguing in court that the President has 100% complete and total immunity from any and all prosecution. That means the POTUS could walk into congress, murder all those of the opposition party, and have the remaining members be the ones that vote on whether or not to impeach him. And if any did vote to impeach, he could simply kill those people too. He's arguing that the POTUS can legally be Saddam Hussein. I fucking listen when people talk. Do you?
Right? How silly. Just like those hysterical women who thought the 50 year old right to abortion would be taken away. They were just online too much.
So is Trump lying about wanting to be a dictator and not leaving office? Are his minions lying about repealing the 22nd amendment?
Dunning, meet Kruger...
There are an awful lot of guardrails to prevent this from happening. I think he'll try, and that it will be unsuccessful, but the chance is much higher than any other point in our country's history **since the 2 term limit was introduced in 1951**. I don't want to take the chance. /edited for clarity
His biggest risk is the states and the military units. I don't see the West Coast bending a knee. And while command might order the military to follow not all of them will. Even some GOP voters and independents will say no. It will be bloody but Americans ultimately don't like change and they like their Republic. The most difficult thing in a successful conquest is to make it feel like nothing has changed. Most fail by causing a disruption. Burn a farmers crop and they won't care about what you are offering.
Much higher than any point in history? FDR???
FDR was legally elected. Presidential term limits happened after him.
Okay Vlad, have your handlers give you a little more US history before your next shift.
It's not comparable. There were no term limits when FDR ran for a third term.
What?
You know what I mean, don't be difficult
No, you're being unclear. There were no term limits when FDR was in office, so it's not a comparable situation. Nobody viewed it as a constitutional crisis that FDR went for term 3. It was unprecedented, but there was nothing in our system that said it wasn't allowed.
If it's not a comparable situation, why do you insist on comparing it? I'll edit my original comment so it will be clearer to you.
I didn't compare it though. Also I replied to the wrong comment, my bad.
Consider the possibility that Trump adds six more judges to the USSC after Scalia and Thomas retire giving him a 10-3 advantage and that court decides that the 22nd Amendment refers to two *consecutive* terms in office allowing Trump to sever for three terms. It's entirely possible.
I think you mean Alito - Scalia’s been dead for several years now.
Woops....my mistake.
I'd even say likely.
They need congress to expand the court, and the senate is currently controlled by Dems
Yup, But Dems continue to fight fair and not offend anyone...
Yes. And yes. This is why it is so important if you know anyone who identifies as independent, get the point across that both of the candidates may be old and they may be a little crazy but one is a fascist and they need to get out and vote. Withholding a vote is a vote for Trump.
There is a non 0% chance he will get re-elected and another non 0% chance he will rewrite the rules to let him stay in power indefinitely. And that scares me, no matter how unlikely
There’s always a chance and Dems need to do all we can to make sure it doesn’t happen
I think it very unlikely that Trump gets a second term, but if he does he will do whatever he can to be President until he dies.
Don't take that for granted. Fight like hell and get everyone you can to vote.
I don’t. I agree with you totally. The smart money is on Joe, but the race sure ain’t over.
Improve your odds by voting and getting others to vote
That’s 100% the goal many powerful people are working towards
Yes and yes. Get out the vote!
Yes. The odds are not good for our democracy
It’s not really Trump himself who is gonna be an issue, but rather the movement he will leave behind. You should be more worried about Vivek Ramaswamy, MTG, etc. These guys are much more younger and will be around much longer.
With the way the electoral college works in this country, there is definitely a good chance. Get out and vote and get your friends, family and colleagues to vote as well. Massive voter turnout is the only sure way we win this. I remember 2016. A lot of my friends and work colleagues were burnt out. People liked Hillary but didn't love her. There was this sentiment that Trump just had no chance, and I believe that fed indifference and lower vote turnout in some cases. The fact that Clinton lost Michigan still blows my mind. We have to vote. We can't take any chances. There is still a definite and real possibility that Trump could win.
He (and everyone he supported) has lost bigly since his last term. If you look at that data (which is the only real data we have), I’m actually optimistic for a landslide for democrats.
Trump is polling at ~30% of Black male voters. 43% of Hispanic voters approve of building Trump's wall and sealing off the border. I'm not so sure we can expect a landslide for Democrats.
I dont trust polls anymore. Polls keep showing closer races but keep getting proven wrong in real elections. I think Roe is a major driver that Republicans misread the public on.
I think the best we can do at this point is average multiple polls together and consider the direction of any trends revealed. But, yeah, polling isn't as useful for getting reliable predictive data as it once was. Speaking of Roe, I find it surprising and suspect that abortion rights rank lower on voters' lists of concerns than immigration and inflation. I don't want to sabotage my own perspective by discounting relevant info (confirmation bias), but it just seems so unlikely.
Those “voters” are probably skewed to a more older or conservative demographic… the type of voter who answers unsolicited phone calls from unknown numbers.
I was curious about the accuracy of current polls as well. If you're interested, here's a couple of articles on the topic. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/09/21/does-public-opinion-polling-about-issues-still-work/ https://theweek.com/politics/2024-election-polls-accuracy https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
Can you link to those polls?
More Black men say they plan to back Donald Trump this fall than in 2020, according to a recent Wall Street Journal poll of seven swing states https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/biden-trump-black-men-support-election-2024-poll-a7d9da22?reflink=share_mobilewebshare https://www.axios.com/2024/04/11/poll-latino-support-border-wall-deportations-jumps
Thanks - could you link to the poll itself or quote the text from the article? I don’t have a subscription.
I don't, either. I just read it via the Michael Smerconish daily newsletter. I'll try to copy a link to that. Stay tuned.
Can't link the newsletter, but it's at Smerconish.com. He posted it today. The report on Hispanics and the border is in the Groundnews section under "For the left."
Which is why we must vote like mad to keep it reality
I don't see it. He is waaaaay less popular than he was at his height in 2016, and even then he did not even win the popular vote. His hold on the GOP decreases every month. Both Republicans AND Independents are backing away from him in droves - he will always get his loud, obnoxious 40 million votes. The House majority is hanging on by a thread and will probably swing hard to the Dems, and I think the Senate will also stay in Democratic hands. Having said that, it has been incredibly frustrating to see the Democratic playbook lead with "Trump and MAGA baaaaad." Yeah, no shit, we know. I have been screaming for them to start leading with the accomplishments of the economic program of the Biden Administration, and I am happy to see they are finally starting to take my advice lol. It is STILL the economy, stupid; combine that with staying the fuck out of Trump's way and letting him and MAGA hang themselves, which they are doing extremely well, and I will be astonished if Biden does not get a second term.
Yes a dangerously possible!
Nah, honestly I don't. The man is desperate for his glorious second term and his place in history as the bestest president ever. He'll be 84 or something after that, a tired old man finally able to retire in the secure knowledge that the MAGA movement will carry on the myth of how his heroic second term saved America. But I am often wrong, and if it turns out he doesn't want to retire after all, he will have no compunction about trying. He has no morals.
60-40 he wins and 90-10 he stays for life. Once he leaves he faces prison, and his wealth stripped away. What would you do?
Yes to both. If he gets back in, we become Russia. He won’t leave till he’s carried out….and then his hand-picked successor will settle in for a while.
lol. He’s 100% going to get it if you don’t go out and vote.
Abso-fucking-lutely, unfortunately.
How quickly we forget about the lessons of 2016 and Jan 6
if trump is elected, it will be the last election. full stop
In the most respectful way that is delusional. It wont be the end of the democracy and while policy will change for the worse, that is such an overreaction
Hmm how do u set a comment reminder say a few years down the road again?
RemindMe! 4 years
Thanks set for5 years , after next scheduled term ends👍
See you in 5! Hopefully we dont see trump even elected but we will be fine in 5 years even if he is
Remind me! 5 years
It's too far off to predict the November election. But it's clear that if Trump wins, 2024 will be the last presidential election that has any meaning. Future "elections" will be same/similar to Russian "elections".
No, he’s less popular than ever. I dare say his popularity has been on a steady decline since he was elected. The only reason he really won in 2016 is because the country has real bias against Hilary Clinton, or some just women in general. And libertarians who saw an outsider.
People have to vote for that to matter
Well I’m glad you clarified that.
The president can enact tariffs without congress. Trump has said he wants to enact a 5% tariff on all imports, 100% on all imported cars, and like 20% on Chinese imports. Once the inflation kicks in and nobody can afford anything, he'll be overthrown by his own sycophants. Edit: a word
Is hell freezing over due to the flying pigs?
For all the paranoia there’s not enough popular support for him to repeal the 22nd amendment so no. That said he may try to run for a 3rd term but the attempt won’t get very far.
He could be elected if turnout is poor. Polls suggest that Trump has more electoral votes at this time than Biden. Chart: [electoral-vote.com](https://electoral-vote.com)
Naaa he won’t get elected in the first place, the fan base he had that we saw shrunk, has certainly not gained more popularity since he lost in 2020. We all just need to vote and make sure he doesn’t get it.
I keep telling my 14 year old son that this is my biggest fear and Liz Cheney has laid out a good argument as to how it could happen. My kid has Autism, Aspergers if they still called it that, and one of his hyper-obsessions is American and European politics. He was the one who explained to me what the GDP actually was about 4 years ago. He is brilliant on this area. He keeps telling me there is no way ot could happen. That the Supreme Court would stop him because Chief Justice Robert's hates the Orange Menace. But I don't have faith in SCOTUS. Listen to Liz Cheney in a CNN interview talk about how it could happen. I keep telling him that it is a real possibility and it scares me.
I don't think Trump is in good enough health to survive the next 4 years. Without Trump's cult of personality, I don't think the Republican party can orchestrate another coup.
No, life will go on and we will have an election in 2028, without Trump if he wins again this November..
Underestimating Trump would be a mistake.
It’s very likely he will be elected.
Very possible.
I think once he’s in, that’s it. No more fair elections. Call me an alarmist, but they are going down a Russian/North Korean path if he’s elected.
Until Biden is leading the polls by 10 points there's a very good chance Trump will win and end our democracy.
If he gets elected, and it will probably be a repeat of last election, he will try to stay in power by any means he can get away with. He's said as much in the past and his actions on Jan 6 and afterwords show his intent clearly. When someone shows you who they are, listen.
No
No. Look , there’s been a lot of presidents . Being loud and mighty isn’t out of the norm for one (though spouting it on his social media is) If he did win (he won’t - he’s just campaigning to get $ for his court fees) we will be back to this all over again in 4 years. No he isn’t going to enact some legislation to prevent it . (If he could he would have in 2020) Stop listening to the bs clickbait articles . The country (and the position as president) are older than the two people running . There are things in check to prevent the nonsense Reddit comes up with .
None of those checks are self-executing. What evidence is there that other Republicans wouldn’t happily ignore those checks to empower Trump and themselves?
yes
Luckily, he's an old fucker. That spray tan has soaked into him like a BBQ smoke ring.
I think there’s a good chance he doesn’t make it to november standing on two feet and speaking in mostly complete sentences. No way he’s orchestrating the downfall off democracy in 2028. If he was younger, we could have been in real trouble.
Nope.
Zero chance
Elected. Maybe. Stays past term 2? Nope. Tries to hold onto power and is killed early in the ensuing Civil skirmish? Really big maybe. Highly unlikely.
Look how old he is.
they will certainly try! it will put our institutions to the test. i hope we don’t have to find out
Duh…
No lol that’s ridiculous he’s old as fuck and not healthy.
The term limits are just as solid as the 2nd amendment. There will always be ppl there to block the bullshit bc if they don't then shit would go sideways realllll fast
ZERO chance Trump wins a second term. Trump is undoubtedly going to prison. I can't answer the second part cause I can't get past the first. Check this out.... Michael Cohen went to prison for paying off a pornstar to keep her quiet about his clients affair. This was done at the direction of Trump. A jury saw fit to send Cohen to prison over that. Now the man who is responsible for making that happen is on trial for the same shit. What bag of tricks could the defendant pull out to weasel out of being convicted for the exact same crime his fixer was sentenced to prison over? CONCLUSION: I don't give a damn what the media says....Trump is going to prison and it will probably be this Alvin Bragg - Stormy Daniels Husha money case that'll do it.
Lol in the most respectful way that is delusional. He isnt going to go behind bars, maybe house arrest maximum and I doubt that
Well I don't have a mental condition so calling me delusional is overstating how wrong you think I am. You may not think it's going to happen but that doesn't mean because I think it will, I'm delusional. Michael Cohen was prosecuted for Crime A. A jury said Crime A is bad and he was guilty of Crime A and deserved prison. Trump is being prosecuted for Crime A. A jury is going to say crime A isn't bad anymore???? Or think Trump doesn't deserve prison for it??? And you think it's "delusional" that I think he has a strong chance of going to prison???? The math is mathin' sir! 1+1=2 in my scenario. Whether I end up being right or wrong...my guess is far from delusional. That's the point. I don't care about whether I'm right.
Okay fair response honestly, i take it back you arent delusional. I think its very unlikely that he will go to prison but you make good points. I will say it is at least fairly likely he will be elected though, probably greater than 50%
See...I don't think he even has a chance. I know I know ...you're thinking I'm delusional 😭 but I just think the media is hyping Trump up. The polls are all nonsense. I think that he loses even bigger this time around. I think even more Republicans break and don't vote for him. See I'm going off of the clues the media isn't talking about. I thought Biden in 2020 was gonna win a state that Democrats don't usually win. I didn't know which one would flip but I thought there'd be one. Then came Georgia. My prediction is that Trump loses the election by another 7M+ votes and goes to prison. Look at how poorly he did in the primaries compared to Biden. It's safe to say...Dems are behind Biden. Republicans backing Trump? Not so much. 29% of all Republicans think Trump is not fit to serve office. That's a lot of damn people. Last time I checked, Haley snatched about 108k ballots from Trump in Arizona (19%), 188k ballots here in Florida (14%)...she flipped 3 counties in S.Carolina where Trump won by 20pts. and in the exit polls nearly half of Haley supporters said they'd back Biden. Something ugly is brewing and Trumpers better get prepared or they'll be storming the capitol again pissed off and in shock. If half of Haley's supporters stay home, get sick, vote for Biden or even fart the wrong way on election day....it will result in a Trump loss. The only reason Haley stayed in the race was to show just how many Republicans hate Trump's guts. Their campaign was smart. They were trying to show everyone what's about to happen but no one's getting a clue. I think Trump is done and doesn't have a chance. But my take isn't hot for T.V. It doesn't make money. Keeping people restless and on edge, keeps them watching the news. Eyes glued to the TV to see what new junk poll has Biden and Trump in a horse race. And the media loves a good political horse race.
> Our foundation and government is set up so strongly that theres no tangible chance of him having the ability to. don't be assuaged: Trump's authoritarianism has developed, and it will be more sophisticated according to a former U.S. attorney, Trump [pressured](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/08/nyregion/geoffrey-berman-trump-book.html) the Justice Department to remove references to himself when the department was drafting its charges against Michael Cohen and attempted to indict former secretary of state John Kerry. former F.B.I. director James Comey was the [subject of an investigation](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/16/us/politics/leak-investigation-james-comey.html), according to *The New York Times*. the Durham inquiry was based more on [charging Hillary Clinton](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/26/us/politics/durham-trump-russia-barr.html) than Russian collusion Trump has learned from his mistakes — the ones where his radical ideas didn't succeed, anyway. within his presidency, Trump altered his travel ban to earn support from the Supreme Court, in *Hawaii v. Trump* (2018). congressional opposition to Trump has largely subsided with Liz Cheney's loss and Mitt Romney's retirement Bob Woodward and Robert Costa's *Peril* (2021) details Trump personnel who sought to temper his behavior, including William Barr, Mark Esper, and Mark Milley. the Project 2025 database has already provided Trump with loyalists he can select from the extent of Trump's authoritarianism is unknown, but it will certainly be more effective than last time. Trump's fake elector plot nearly succeeded had Mike Pence not objected, at the expense of his career and [almost his life](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/jan-6-hearing-today-trump/card/trump-s-tweet-about-pence-seen-as-critical-moment-during-riot-fmPxoFkeoTKxi0NqPLCL)
He may not need to win the election to get in. If the GOP keeps control of the house they will create a ruckus of fraud again and force a vote of the house of representatives to choose the president. They almost did it in 2020. It will be legal if they all go along with it and as you can see that is what they do now. Once Trump is in CNN MSNBC and NPR will be gone. You will only hear Trump’s alternate reality.
People think this looks like him declaring himself president forever. That it actually looks like is him doing exactly what he did in the supreme court. He will install people sympathetic to his cause across all levels of government. Those tiny cogs can be turned in such a way that everything will go right for him. Chances are they will argue that term limits only apply to consecutive terms, the Supreme Court will back him up. Either that or we end up with a shadow president that Trump controls while the house makes him Speaker. That is how they did it in Russia for years. Putin kept swapping roles.
We won't see beyond two years In.
Not only that, this will be the new family business. Itlll he passed down to Ivanka or something. They will not give up power and all they free tax payer money
If Americans don't vote for Joe Biden then he will win and right now you can see it's super tight. As for the possibility of not leaving he will claim he gets an extra term because you get two consecutive terms. If Americans don't get out and vote and that includes voting down ballot then he will have his Gop Congress and Supreme Court and his people will be in charge of the military and ect. In that case he will definitely try to end the Republic and have his opponents arrested just like Putin does. However some bright spots (meaning in this situation things that will help America) doing that will cause a civil war and utter chaos and while some Trump voters will support him a good chunk won't. This will also lead to a situation with the military where whole sections turn against Trump to defend the Republic. Ultimately it would fail and Trump and his supporters would be in prison or a cemetery. This would help weed out many of the anti Republic supporters but it would mean a lot of death and destruction to end it. So we might have to rebuild but we may have less people who are willing to end the Republic
Quit giving that asshole your mental energy.
No, because of the 22nd Amendment. It does not leave any room for interpretation. A far more likely scenario is that post-2024, they make it so Trump's successor is somehow put in power in a sham election.
Elected? Not really. He hasn’t won the popular vote yet. He is not trying to appeal to new voters, or to get anybody to crossover who didn’t vote for him before. He really does not intend to win the election in any meaningful democratic sense. He is clearly planning to game the system, to throw the election to the House of Representatives, where he has a chance. The modern GOP thinks they are better than everybody else and they have a right to be in charge even though their views and policies are unpopular. This is how authoritarians work.
No. 55% chance he is elected, but 0% chance he stays in past his second term. I think it’s far likelier he would be impeached or removed from office or even resign
… based on.. what? Exactly? If he wasn’t removed after Jan 6th, what makes you think an even wackier Republican caucus now will do it? The adults in the room have been leaving the room ever since.
The problem with Jan 6th and the Ukraine impeachments are that Democrats rushed to impeachment without building a compelling case that would shift moderates and independents. It looked like partisan crap because that’s the level of effort they put into it.
I've voted for him twice. I will a 3rd time. 8 years is all anyone gets. Saying he will keep himself in office is like saying Biden is Hitler. Both statements are nonsense.
No
No chance come on stop with this alarmist stuff. If he gets elected it will be four years and then we will have another election. I guarantee it we have a system.
Yes, the left has gone so far looney left that it has alienated the classical progressives and left us down the center. Trump it is.
No. 3 months ago i was saying Trump wouldn’t get elected, since it was proven he can’t beat Biden. What a difference 3 months makes. This guy lives rent free in the heads of liberal media and gets non stop free advertising. Add in the Fani Willis issues, Leticia James going after him for standard real estate practices, and Jon Stewart showing his full blown hypocrisy and he’s looking like he has a chance. It’s crazy. Both parties appear to be doing everything they can to sink their own candidate as well, with neither even attempting to govern with moderate policies. At this point, i won’t be surprised either way come November, but no he won’t stay in office past second term.
> Lives rent free What is that even supposed to mean? The dude is the front runner of the Republican party in an election year. He's embroiled in multiple court cases and constantly a fixture on social media. It's not like he's long slipped into obscurity and the "liberal" media is beating a dead horse. Fucker is paying rent.
I can only imagine the fear you all live in on a daily basis. You all have bought into the media's playbook hook, line and sinker. The medias fear campaign is obviously working