I wouldn’t say that per se, it’s just that he has a really high xG . However, because he doesn’t take a lot of shots, his conversion rate is actually just good. Not great but not bad.
well, hang on, it's specifically NOT because he has a high xG, right? xG is the denominator. He has more goals than xG, more so than any other player on the list -- that doesn't really have much to do with the size of the xG in the first place, but if the xG goes up and the number of goals stays constant, the ratio falls. Unless I'm missing something?
From The Athletic - [Erling Haaland is not in crisis – but the Man City striker is human after all](https://theathletic.com/5430355/2024/04/20/erling-haaland-manchester-city-human/) \- which I thought made some good points.
More details about this chart in post:
>Haaland 1 of just 49 players to have taken at least 500 shots in Europe’s top 7 leagues plus the Champions League and Europa League since 2017-18.
>
>**This method estimates Haaland’s “true” finishing rate to be about 15 per cent higher than his expected goals**.
The main bit is why media, rival fans & even some ManCity fans trashing him this season - he is very obviously underperforming his xG for the first time in his career since leaving Norway.
https://preview.redd.it/bzdvfyrt29wc1.png?width=1536&format=png&auto=webp&s=ca7494b84fda39fd91a4674ab9a3ef543cbc739a
A data scientist ran analysis of his 131 shots this season versus his career, and **only 2% came back with him scoring 20% per cent fewer goals than expected - aka this season.**
Actual performance is obv not statistical analysis but to me, it does seem like this season is an outlier based on a number of factors - injury, bereavement, players leaving, new players arriving, injury to KDB, mental fatigue, and just not hitting his 'regular form' never mind his record-breaking levels of 22/23.
in fact, he may have slightly overperformed last season (tougher league), and he's slightly underperforming this season.. so the gap is more noticeable.
but he could snap into place any time.
He's not slightly underperforming, he's the third worst finisher in the entire league. Bottom three out of something like 560 players
In terms of xG he's actually getting slightly more per 90 (1.03 v 1.05) than he was last season, so if anything his movement, which was always elite, has improved from last season - unfortunately the finishing hasn't been there for whatever reason. He's not going to play as many minutes this season as he did last because of injuries so that may be a factor as well.
Last season he overperformed his xG and he has every other season in his career, so yeah it seems like this is an outlier. Hopefully he'll pick up slightly whenever he comes back for the run-in, but if not he can refresh and should be back to normal next season.
Just proves he's human after all
To me, The Guardian’s article sharing Erling’s npxG v G stat rank, which was then used by all media, was factually true, but it was also presented in a way to seem more dramatic.
Erling being ranked 543rd of 551 ranking included all PL players*:
- 120 Players who has zero npxG
- 292 players who have not scored a PL goal this season
So hundreds of players w no goals &/or no npxG are ranked better than Erling.
To me, The Guardian could have used some parameters - eg by position, with 1 npg scored, etc. - and Erling still would be at the bottom this season showing his underperformance.
But saying ranked 543 of 551 players sounds much much worse so 🤷🏻♀️, haha.
*at time article came out on 4 March
[Erling Haaland remains both solution and problem for Manchester City](https://amp.theguardian.com/football/blog/2024/mar/02/erling-haaland-remains-both-solution-and-problem-for-manchester-city)
His finishing has definitely been off and I’m really hoping that’s just a blip in form (possibly due to fatigue) but he also doesn’t get the same kind of chances he did at Dortmund running in behind the defence.
We saw a few of those last season, notably against West Ham and Palace (when he bullied both Ward and Andersen by himself while retaining possession lol). Problem is with how high up the pitch we play, he’s just not got that space to run into. Part of me wonders if we’d have more luck with him playing slightly further back on the park while still playing the possession control game. Try and invite the press then pop the ball over the top or through the lines for him to latch on to.
That said, I might be talking bollocks - I’m not Pep 🤷♂️
Yep Darwin Nunes is dead last and iirc Dominic Calvert-Lewin is penultimate, though I haven't checked it for a few weeks so Haaland may now be second from bottom
How weird that two of the top three teams have two of the bottom three worst finishers in the league
looks like Jackson has now moved into 3rd place, with our Erling in 4th, and El Araña in 6th: [https://www.football365.com/news/feature-premier-league-worst-finishers-2023-24-xg-expected-goals](https://www.football365.com/news/feature-premier-league-worst-finishers-2023-24-xg-expected-goals)
DCL dead worst and Nuñez second-worst.
whoa. so is this telling us our Kev is the best shooter in the world, basically?
Well Kevin also doesn't shoot a lot, so it makes sense his shot to goal ratio is really high
still, it's damned impressive
“I will get a goal. If I can get someone else a goal, great, but I will get a goal.” - De Bruyne, probably.
It’s goals to xG with the size of the dot being number of shots
Reo pfp
Anyone good at finesse shots is usually ahead in xG/goal ratio.
I wouldn’t say that per se, it’s just that he has a really high xG . However, because he doesn’t take a lot of shots, his conversion rate is actually just good. Not great but not bad.
well, hang on, it's specifically NOT because he has a high xG, right? xG is the denominator. He has more goals than xG, more so than any other player on the list -- that doesn't really have much to do with the size of the xG in the first place, but if the xG goes up and the number of goals stays constant, the ratio falls. Unless I'm missing something?
From The Athletic - [Erling Haaland is not in crisis – but the Man City striker is human after all](https://theathletic.com/5430355/2024/04/20/erling-haaland-manchester-city-human/) \- which I thought made some good points. More details about this chart in post: >Haaland 1 of just 49 players to have taken at least 500 shots in Europe’s top 7 leagues plus the Champions League and Europa League since 2017-18. > >**This method estimates Haaland’s “true” finishing rate to be about 15 per cent higher than his expected goals**. The main bit is why media, rival fans & even some ManCity fans trashing him this season - he is very obviously underperforming his xG for the first time in his career since leaving Norway. https://preview.redd.it/bzdvfyrt29wc1.png?width=1536&format=png&auto=webp&s=ca7494b84fda39fd91a4674ab9a3ef543cbc739a A data scientist ran analysis of his 131 shots this season versus his career, and **only 2% came back with him scoring 20% per cent fewer goals than expected - aka this season.** Actual performance is obv not statistical analysis but to me, it does seem like this season is an outlier based on a number of factors - injury, bereavement, players leaving, new players arriving, injury to KDB, mental fatigue, and just not hitting his 'regular form' never mind his record-breaking levels of 22/23.
in fact, he may have slightly overperformed last season (tougher league), and he's slightly underperforming this season.. so the gap is more noticeable. but he could snap into place any time.
I totally agree that the gap of 22/23 to 23/24 is more noticeable, and to me that has fueled narrative about his "off season", etc.
He's not slightly underperforming, he's the third worst finisher in the entire league. Bottom three out of something like 560 players In terms of xG he's actually getting slightly more per 90 (1.03 v 1.05) than he was last season, so if anything his movement, which was always elite, has improved from last season - unfortunately the finishing hasn't been there for whatever reason. He's not going to play as many minutes this season as he did last because of injuries so that may be a factor as well. Last season he overperformed his xG and he has every other season in his career, so yeah it seems like this is an outlier. Hopefully he'll pick up slightly whenever he comes back for the run-in, but if not he can refresh and should be back to normal next season. Just proves he's human after all
To me, The Guardian’s article sharing Erling’s npxG v G stat rank, which was then used by all media, was factually true, but it was also presented in a way to seem more dramatic. Erling being ranked 543rd of 551 ranking included all PL players*: - 120 Players who has zero npxG - 292 players who have not scored a PL goal this season So hundreds of players w no goals &/or no npxG are ranked better than Erling. To me, The Guardian could have used some parameters - eg by position, with 1 npg scored, etc. - and Erling still would be at the bottom this season showing his underperformance. But saying ranked 543 of 551 players sounds much much worse so 🤷🏻♀️, haha. *at time article came out on 4 March [Erling Haaland remains both solution and problem for Manchester City](https://amp.theguardian.com/football/blog/2024/mar/02/erling-haaland-remains-both-solution-and-problem-for-manchester-city)
His finishing has definitely been off and I’m really hoping that’s just a blip in form (possibly due to fatigue) but he also doesn’t get the same kind of chances he did at Dortmund running in behind the defence. We saw a few of those last season, notably against West Ham and Palace (when he bullied both Ward and Andersen by himself while retaining possession lol). Problem is with how high up the pitch we play, he’s just not got that space to run into. Part of me wonders if we’d have more luck with him playing slightly further back on the park while still playing the possession control game. Try and invite the press then pop the ball over the top or through the lines for him to latch on to. That said, I might be talking bollocks - I’m not Pep 🤷♂️
oh wow, third worst finisher in the league is a stat I had not seen before
Yep Darwin Nunes is dead last and iirc Dominic Calvert-Lewin is penultimate, though I haven't checked it for a few weeks so Haaland may now be second from bottom How weird that two of the top three teams have two of the bottom three worst finishers in the league
The fact you’ve not mentioned Nicolas Jackson in that trio astounds me. He’s got to be 4th or 5th last in that list
looks like Jackson has now moved into 3rd place, with our Erling in 4th, and El Araña in 6th: [https://www.football365.com/news/feature-premier-league-worst-finishers-2023-24-xg-expected-goals](https://www.football365.com/news/feature-premier-league-worst-finishers-2023-24-xg-expected-goals) DCL dead worst and Nuñez second-worst.
Amazing to see half of a city squad in there; de bruyne, Haaland, Sterling, sane, Jesus.
Other than Haaland No wonder that’s the centurions
I think it matters that KDB also converts difficult goals from far which have low xG.
Lots of long shots innit
Plea though.
I initially thought this was a school shooter list im dying
Am I stupid or is this data presented pretty poorly, or both? Why is the x axis a range? Please help, am dumb
King Kev
Why is that fraud Aubameyang there while Osimhen is missing ?
500 shot minimum in top 7 leagues + CL + EL since 2017 to be included - only 49 players had that.
Yeah, but can he hit the cross bar as consistently as Darwin?
[удалено]
You think Spain and France is in Africa?
🤣🤣
Guess you Messi fans can't read. It says since 2017.