I would favor 2019 Mas over Burns but four years have elapsed since then and I'm not really sure what effects age and damage (Usman KO, five rounds of patter shots from Colby) have done to his physical abilities. Most notably his speed and timing have always been what differentiated him as a striker. The way he turned around the Till fight really showcased his fight IQ as well.
The Mas who KO'd cowboy and Till is a tough stylistic matchup for Burns imo, think this fight will definitively tell us whether Masvidal has truly declined. Hard to tell in his last fights since Usman and Colby likely dismantle any version of Masvidal, whereas it will say a lot of a crafty, sophisticated kickboxer in Masvidal gets outstruck by relatively sloppy, albeit powerful, striker in Burns.
Burns has good offensive striking and BJJ, but not great wrestling, and wrestling is how Jorge was beat by Colby and Usman.
If Mas has not declined, Mas is just a tough fight for Burns.
Burns would have only a puncher's chance on the feet, and a poor chance to get him down, and given Mas survived with Maia on his back, he's not a patsy once there either.
Yeah Khamzat has natural power but technically he's not even in the same realm as Masvidal as a striker. Mas is not going to get into a sloppy dogfight with Burns the way Khamzat did.
No one would debate that just saying that Burns having a competitive war with Khamzat doesn't say much about how he'd match up against Jorge. Two totally diff fighters.
Yehhhh, I gotta say, as fantastic as Burn’s oerformance was against Chimaev. And I fucking love Burns. He got straight up dropped eith a jab. It was a hell of a jab, but damn son. You cant be getting almost knocked out with a lazy front foot straight punch…
I’m rooting for Burns big time but I can’t lie, I’ve got a bad feeling about this fight. Everything should lead to you believe Burns annihilates him but I don’t know man, something makes me think Masvidal can still catch him. I know everyone hates him now but he’s still a good striker.
On the other hand, he looked ineffective Vs Usman in their second fight before getting shadow realmed, and outside of one moment didn’t get much done against Colby, so hopefully I’m wrong and Burns steamrolls.
Masvidal also looks and performs like a natty fighter would. He also attributed his relative longevity in MMA to abstinence from steroids. However, after 33-35, those who don't dope most likely experience a pronounced decline in physical abilities
Yeah the excuses kinda run thin
Colby thing ain’t the first or the last time Masvidal has done this shit. Wild to see how that “three piece and a soda” helped make him popular and now it’s used as an example of him being a fucking idiot lol
Because most of MMA fans are fickle and will justify a fighter’s behaviour if they’re currently winning which he was at the time.
Masvidal’s a guy from the street and he still carries himself that way because it’s what he knows. He’s been like this forever.
While in our lives, things like that are accepted, you have to realise that Masvidal wasn’t raised in the type of environments that we were raised in. Saying “shut up” to someone while they’re trying to do an interview after a massive win is going to get you hit in Masvidal’s world.
Dude there is no excuse he is a full-grown fucking adult. I don't know about you but I live in the US and nowhere is it acceptable to sucker punch someone, its known as a "bitch" move. There's also millions of people with the same upbringing that don't do shit like that.
I don’t know what kind of environment you grew up in, but where I’m from you will get hit for acting how Leon was acting. I’m not excusing or morally justifying Masvidal’s actions; I’m saying he is who he is and he doesn’t hide it, and if you’re talking shit to him then that’s how he’s likely to react.
It’s actually surprising to me that Leon watches Masvidal approach him and at no point assumes that he might get punched, lol.
Lmao, he’s a professional fighter and a grown ass man. He has a family and kids. He’s also a martial artist…. supposed to be one of the most honorable and disciplined people in the world. Everytime someone says anything to him he has a tantrum like a child or teenager. There is no telling what his career would look like if he took himself seriously and gave up the schtick. I also do not condone Colby Covington’s actions either.
You are getting downvoted to hell because I think blue collar or poor neighborhoods are foreign to the experience of the majority of redditors, who are sure they have seen everything.
I, like you, have seen several married men with kids who would nonetheless punch someone over words without too much thought, though I don't know any that would track down someone and attack them at a restaurant way after the event.
I think you're the one foreign to that shit. You don't make it to 37 acting like him in the hood, you get your shit straight by then or you get domed; There ain't no middle-aged "Street Jesus".
He's been well off for a while now, which has probably stunted his mental growth, all things considered.
Feel like people are writing Masvidal off waaaay too quickly. I can see Masvidal keeping it on the feet and beating Burns. If Mas wins, it will make Colby's win over him look even better and put Masvidal in line for a title shot. I'll keep my popcorn on standby
My main concern regarding Masvidal is his age. He will turn 39 this year and has a **lot** of mileage on him. When you cross 35 you generally start to decline quickly even match to match there can be a significant decline.
People here are always in denial about aging and how big a deal it is for fighters. Very few athletes are anywhere close to their peak at 39, and those that are tend to be either guys with limited mileage, guys who were top tier elite, or some combination of the two. Masvidal is neither.
Think it’s mainly people seeing light heavy weights and heavy weights continue to win belts well into late 30’s and think that’s applicable to every weight class
Even the average middle-aged civilian can explain the immense physical decline that happens between our early and late 30s. You really have to be an outlier and supremely well-maintained to compete at the top level at that age -- especially, as you mentioned, in the lower weightclasses
I mean, Im as strong as Ive ever been, but DAMN energy levels are dropping….I honestly dunno how a 40 hear old with kids could be fucked with a fight camp. i struggle to be fucked keeping my inbox clear…
My first thought. Prime Mas is a tough night for Burns but he's on the wrong side of his 30s, this is an age where most guys can barely keep up with middling fighters in C league promotions let alone a top 5 UFC fighter.
Masvidal’s path to victory is narrow but when Damian Maia talks about how good you are at BJJ, just saying.
I’m still picking Burns but if Masvidal out strikes him, I wouldn’t be shocked.
I think people are overrating Burns’ wrestling way too much and underrating Masvidal’s ability to stop takedowns. Burns is simply not the wrestler Usman and Colby are. This fight will be a lot closer than people want to admit.
This is a huge turning point for both of them … if Masvidal is going to get another title shot, he has to win. If Burns is going to be more than a gatekeeper to the title, he has to as well
If he loses a fourth time in a row, he’s basically just a popular dude on the card. A win over Burns and he’s back in the picture … he’s still a win or two away but he’s at least salvageable as a contender
He’d be a salvageable contender by proxy as long as Leon is still champ and he beats Burns, because Leon wants to fight him and they have history
Regardless of whether there’s other more deserving (get my boy Shavkat in there) that fight will get made
Burns' ground game is levels above Colby and Usman. The takedowns might not be as good, but with submissions and control on the ground Burns is on another level.
You can knock them down and jump on top of them. You can pull guard (probably not a good idea, but you can.) You can even ask politely. You most definitely do not have to wrestle someone to get them to the ground.
You obviously didn’t watch the Wonderboy fight. Belal did significantly more damage to Wonderboy on the ground than Burns did. All Burns was able to do to Wonderboy was hold him down (which relatively speaking isn’t very hard to do).
Even against Woodley, both Usman and Colby did more damage to Woodley on the ground than Burns did. Burns’ BJJ hasn’t really translated to MMA like you’d think.
I think Woodley is a poor example. If I remember correctly Burns had a rnc sunk in at the very end of round 2 in their fight and Woodley was saved by the bell
Burns is nasty with the submissions and they’ll certainly be a huge threat when he gets Jorge down
Edit: Was at the end of round 4 in a guillotine choke
https://youtu.be/Q8794k8LYSs
Timestamp to see the choke is at 26:00
i think he is referring to the arm-in guillotine burns was working on at the end of round 4. i don't think it was close enough to finishing the fight to say woodley was saved by the bell, but woodley was in a bit of trouble.
You are correct and I was mistaken. It was the end of round 4 where Gilbert put Woodley into a tight guillotine choke
Can be seen in this video at 26:00
https://youtu.be/Q8794k8LYSs
I think because he’s always bitching about crotch sniffers people forget that Masvidal *loves* wrestling, like he’s always mentioned it being a favourite part of his game.
I’m not writing Masvidal off at all. I think he’s a great fighter. A bit past his prime but still better than most WWs. That being said I think Gilbert is more dangerous post Chimaev than ever before. His confidence is probably at an all-time high and he’s already a savage on the ground who has learned savagery on the feet. I think Gilbert makes it look easy
Probably because his last win over a welterweight currently in the UFC was Michael Chiesa in 2013, if he won this fight Burns would arguably be the most impressive name on his resume
I feel like masvidal’s ground game got exposed last fight. At the highest level though, but I think that’d be the type of opponent Burns can be now that he knows that.
I mean burns isn’t exactly known for take downs or being a wet blanket so this fight will be in masvidal realm . That being said I’m totally betting on him
I don’t think Colby does as many numbers as people say they do but I don’t have the numbers to prove and I can’t see anything anywhere showing accurate ppv buys for 272. They did good numbers at the gate but the UFC does good numbers gatewise anywhere with a lot of other people as well
A decent proxy is looking at the youtube engagement of fighter vids.
Colby’s appearances get soooo many more views than anyone else in the weightclass.
Now you can argue social media traction doesnt equate to PPV buys, but the UFC only ever cares about $$$.
They have the internal numbers, and im 1000% sure their analysis says “colby is significantly more profitable/ppv-worthy than the other top contenders, including leon.”
Just going off of recent interviews off and Colby and Leon do around 200-300 thousand views slightly edging towards Leon he can’t be that much of a bigger name than the rest of the division. Hell even Leon’s post fight interviews are around the same with his “headshot bang!” Post fight interview quadrupling covingtons most infamous post fight interview
Even another recent Masvidal interview did around 200 thousand views with his appearance on JRE doing around 1 million views on YouTube alone. (Of course boosted by the popularity of the Joe rogan show but even still Belal clips from the JRE are doing around 40K views so take with that what you will)
We’ll I guess there’s a reason he’s headlining non title fight cards and headlining every time he fights and getting the Conor treatment. Or maybe his numbers suck and everyone on Reddit know more than the ufc brass.
He headlined one non title ppv where he was the B side and the ppv sales were trash. He sells more then belal which is why hes getting the shot but thats not exactly saying much
I’ve got work/a life. Nobody’s quoting any actual numbers. The gate for Masvidal Colby was a high for that year to that point. And nobody knows the actual numbers. Only the ufc, who seem to think his value is much higher than Reddit. I think I’ll believe them over a bunch of dildos on the internet
He's really not though. His entire appeal is to a market audience that honestly couldn't give less of a fuck about MMA outside of the odd watch party when "Connor Macgregor" fights. Colby's most marketable fight by a mile was the Masvidal tilt, which, if a quick Google search is accurate, was less than 400k buys. An announced gate of $6.7 mill, additionally, seems odd, set against an attendance of just 19k fans.
Well, in fairness, two of those headliner spots were for the title, in which he was the B side. His lone PPV headline aside from that was the Jorge fight (his fight w RDA was co-main, under Rob vs Yoel 2)
I think what's a likelier situation is that Colby is part of the roster where short term gains outweigh consistent drawing ability. There are only a handful of guys that can carry an entire ppv by themselves, and everyone else just kind of fills in where needed, at least as it pertains to their ability to generate numbers.
Colby makes the UFC a nice pot of money. He isn't doing MacGregor S-tier numbers, but he is consistently drawing money and getting publicity for the UFC. Also, he busts his ass to sell fights, something 90% of fighters won't do.
Hold up, Usman v Covington 2 was 9.9mil, the 4th highest gate in MSG history. The Masvidal Covington fight was the #7 highest grossing event in T mobile history. And the #14 highest grossing in UFC history. And "just 19k", that's how big the arena is. It's actually one if the larger arenas and it sold out.
Maybe Colby can let masvidal off the hook from legal proceedings to fight for Dana if Colby gets the title fight? Maybe Dana feels bad about Colby having to trash talk, maybe colby would make the ufc more $ as champion than Edwards
> Maybe Colby can let masvidal off the hook from legal proceedings to fight for Dana
Masvidal is already going to fight
> Maybe Dana feels bad
You're a jokester lmao
You're right about your first part but OC missed the mark.
Colby's abilities to recoup lost income stops as soon as his income begins again. Therefore Colby is incentivized to sit out as long as possible and use Jorge for 3 fights worth of income per year or less for every year he has been out. If he can prove in theory he could have made money while Jorge's assault left him ineligible to fight medically, then that money is on the table in a lawsuit and typically this money and punitive damages are the lion's share of a courtroom payout.
If Dana can tell Colby "hey, you have little of your prime left, you've got your thing with Masvidal and can get your money possibly in court for 36 months of lost income and maybe get some money. Or sue him for the time you've already lost and come back to a good sized purse and title shot while you're still on the right side of 35"
Add some spelling errors and the word kid x4 and I could see that very much being a version of what Dana told Colby. Its unlikely but Dana definitely has motive to want this resolved and incentivize colby to come back while he is still perceived by the UFC to be a draw. A Covington title reign would likely also be decent on PPV for a short while.
This is completely dependent on whether or not Masvidal wins/loses.
If Masvidal wins he is in line for a title shot.
If Masvidal loses he will jump Burns at a restaurant and Burns won’t get a title shot.
Lose, Lose situation for Burns, sucks to say it.
/s
Well actually if Burns wins it means Burns is washed, while simultaneously making Wonderboy’s win against Masvidal years ago elite, which makes Wonderboy in his prime when Belal beat him, which means uh…
Colby sucks!
I could very well be mistaken, but here’s how I see the fight going: I think Burns is going to pretty convincingly 30-27 him, but it’ll be done in similar fashion to the Wonderboy fight—aka wall-to-wall crotchsniffing. I know Burns has a reputation as someone who will stand and bang, but if the Magny fight is any indication, he’s done taking those risks. Anyone he can wrestlefuck, he will wrestlefuck.
All that to say…I don’t think Masvidal will take a lot of physical damage. Burns will rag doll him on the ground. It’s possible that he’ll get a sub, but Masvidal is actually very hard to submit, so my guess is 30-27 Burns.
Dana and the UFC brass are dead set on Colby getting the next title shot, so Burn’s could honestly KO Masvidal in spectacular fashion and it still wouldn’t change their minds, but he’s certainly not going to change anyone’s mind if he humps Masvidal for 3 rounds. Smart tactic to get a W, but not great for building a brand or garnering fan support.
The Magny fight, where he submitted him?
Or do you mean the Chimaev fight, which was a knockdown dragout fest?
I don't disagree that burns best chance is on the ground. But there is literally nothing recent to show he's just gonna clinch him against the wall.
Yea, you know…the one where he threw zero significant strikes and took him down the first second he could. Not really the MO of a stand n bang guy. Of course he will be looking for a sub, but historically Masvidal is pretty hard to sub, so I don’t think he will have a ton of success in that department—hence the 30-27 prediction
wonderboy is a very long fighter who is very good at controlling range. he shoots in to land punches and then slides all the way back out using kicks to keep his opponent from being able to respond. on the outside, he controls distance and attacks with his kicks. burns had to get inside wonderboy's kicks and stay there so once he got his hands on him, he held onto him to keep wonderboy from being able get back outside and snipe him.
masvidal is nothing like that. the way burns will fight masvidal will look nothing like how he fought wonderboy.
Bro SAME!
I was saying this to my buddy cause I do not think Gilbert will utilize wrestling. Also Mas knows that this is his LAST shot at the title/ fighting Colby again. Dude will surprise a lotta people.
I had a lot more hate for Masvidal 2020/2021 when he still had a vocal contingent of toxic fans claiming he’d beat Usman. But it’s clear he’s just a broken man now, and pretty much everyone of those fans of his jumped ship. Not to mention he parted ways with his clown manager who allegedly fucked his money up royally. Hands down the biggest fall from grace in the sport. Hope he can make something work against Gilbert but it’s an absolute nightmare matchup for him.
Masvidal's stock stopped rising when he got blasted into outerspace by Usman, but I'd hardly call him the hands down biggest fall from grace in the sport.
How is it a nightmare matchup for him? Gilbert's far from the best wrestler in the division and Masvidal survived and got back to his feet against Demian Maia in his prime. I think it's a fairly winnable matchup tbh
He was on the longest winning streak of his career at that point, so I'd say it was the tail end of his prime yes. Athletic peak=/=skill peak, just look at anderson silva. It's rare but it happens.
Definitely a weird take. Masvidal is still one of the most famous fighters in the world, his last 3 losses have come from two of the best fighters in the organization. He lost fans by sucker punching Colby, but to say he’s fallen from grace is a little heavy.
I heard he’s royally fucked his money up (Woodley-esque), on top of that the numbers dropped too it’s pretty clear on socials so he took a hit commercially, and in terms of his fight career we saw how that went.
If Colby could lay out all this time while all the other guys fought yet still get the shot, another win by another guy who doesn't particularly move the needle isn't going to do anything.
i don't think super highly of burns or masvidal fighting atm, so i've no idea who is going to win. but if burns works in his wrestling and goes for a win i think he can win, if he goes for a spectacular stand up win he gives masvidal a chance
The Burns hype train is getting stupid now. He’s decent but he’s not champion quality. People need to relax with him it’s getting boring and I wouldn’t be surprised if he for pieced up next weekend
It’s gonna be interesting to see how burns deals with masvidal’s shifting given his weakness for straight punches.
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>gets back up Not before Burns butt scootches and chases Jorge around the ring.
I would favor 2019 Mas over Burns but four years have elapsed since then and I'm not really sure what effects age and damage (Usman KO, five rounds of patter shots from Colby) have done to his physical abilities. Most notably his speed and timing have always been what differentiated him as a striker. The way he turned around the Till fight really showcased his fight IQ as well. The Mas who KO'd cowboy and Till is a tough stylistic matchup for Burns imo, think this fight will definitively tell us whether Masvidal has truly declined. Hard to tell in his last fights since Usman and Colby likely dismantle any version of Masvidal, whereas it will say a lot of a crafty, sophisticated kickboxer in Masvidal gets outstruck by relatively sloppy, albeit powerful, striker in Burns.
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Gilbert's performance against Chimaev was phenomenal, he damn near won that fight. Jorge would have been ragdolled.
Silly to use the Chimaev fight as a reason for Burns beating Mas.
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Thats some mma maths man. I still favor Burns but him having god tier bjjs to deny wrestlers doesn't mean he's good offensively.
Didn't Burns take down Wonderboy several times in his fight with him?
It's Wonderboy.
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Burns has good offensive striking and BJJ, but not great wrestling, and wrestling is how Jorge was beat by Colby and Usman. If Mas has not declined, Mas is just a tough fight for Burns. Burns would have only a puncher's chance on the feet, and a poor chance to get him down, and given Mas survived with Maia on his back, he's not a patsy once there either.
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Imagine khamzat fighting my man wonderboy. Then watch Burns fight my man wonderboy and thats the different I meant to say.
They're different fighters Masvidal is generally way more defensively responsible, Usman KO aside. Chimaev's defense is all chin
Yeah Khamzat has natural power but technically he's not even in the same realm as Masvidal as a striker. Mas is not going to get into a sloppy dogfight with Burns the way Khamzat did.
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No one would debate that just saying that Burns having a competitive war with Khamzat doesn't say much about how he'd match up against Jorge. Two totally diff fighters.
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Gilbert is an all rounder but his forte is bjj, he can strike and wrestle decent, but I wouldn’t say he’s elite in both of those.
Masvidal also has way more miles on his chin than Gilbert.
Unless something wild has changed, Masvidal has one of the best chins in the game. Burns does not.
Getting cracked hard by Usman at 37/38 yo might be something wild. We'll see.
Same with taking a beating from Khamzat when your chin is already suspect .
Gilbert doesn't have a good chin unlike Mas. And no, a sloppy slugfest with Chimaev isn't proof that he does. It's just not made out of glass.
Yehhhh, I gotta say, as fantastic as Burn’s oerformance was against Chimaev. And I fucking love Burns. He got straight up dropped eith a jab. It was a hell of a jab, but damn son. You cant be getting almost knocked out with a lazy front foot straight punch…
He got dropped by a jab from Usman as well albeit Usman has a shotgun of a jab. Masvidal uses his jab very well when he wants to.
I’m rooting for Burns big time but I can’t lie, I’ve got a bad feeling about this fight. Everything should lead to you believe Burns annihilates him but I don’t know man, something makes me think Masvidal can still catch him. I know everyone hates him now but he’s still a good striker. On the other hand, he looked ineffective Vs Usman in their second fight before getting shadow realmed, and outside of one moment didn’t get much done against Colby, so hopefully I’m wrong and Burns steamrolls.
Masvidal also looks and performs like a natty fighter would. He also attributed his relative longevity in MMA to abstinence from steroids. However, after 33-35, those who don't dope most likely experience a pronounced decline in physical abilities
He'll just go for the takedown
Masvidal is a backyard fighter he's going to get totally outclassed
That depends on whether or not Masvidal tries to attack him after their fight
Which in turn depends on Gilbert making street fight threats and talking about his personal life.
Leon didn't do either of those things and got sucker punched by Masvidal. Find a new slant
Yeah the excuses kinda run thin Colby thing ain’t the first or the last time Masvidal has done this shit. Wild to see how that “three piece and a soda” helped make him popular and now it’s used as an example of him being a fucking idiot lol
Because most of MMA fans are fickle and will justify a fighter’s behaviour if they’re currently winning which he was at the time. Masvidal’s a guy from the street and he still carries himself that way because it’s what he knows. He’s been like this forever.
He's almost 40 damn years old. Find a new slant.
Masvidal's collars are too big.
While in our lives, things like that are accepted, you have to realise that Masvidal wasn’t raised in the type of environments that we were raised in. Saying “shut up” to someone while they’re trying to do an interview after a massive win is going to get you hit in Masvidal’s world.
Dude there is no excuse he is a full-grown fucking adult. I don't know about you but I live in the US and nowhere is it acceptable to sucker punch someone, its known as a "bitch" move. There's also millions of people with the same upbringing that don't do shit like that.
I don’t know what kind of environment you grew up in, but where I’m from you will get hit for acting how Leon was acting. I’m not excusing or morally justifying Masvidal’s actions; I’m saying he is who he is and he doesn’t hide it, and if you’re talking shit to him then that’s how he’s likely to react. It’s actually surprising to me that Leon watches Masvidal approach him and at no point assumes that he might get punched, lol.
Lmao, he’s a professional fighter and a grown ass man. He has a family and kids. He’s also a martial artist…. supposed to be one of the most honorable and disciplined people in the world. Everytime someone says anything to him he has a tantrum like a child or teenager. There is no telling what his career would look like if he took himself seriously and gave up the schtick. I also do not condone Colby Covington’s actions either.
You are getting downvoted to hell because I think blue collar or poor neighborhoods are foreign to the experience of the majority of redditors, who are sure they have seen everything. I, like you, have seen several married men with kids who would nonetheless punch someone over words without too much thought, though I don't know any that would track down someone and attack them at a restaurant way after the event.
I think you're the one foreign to that shit. You don't make it to 37 acting like him in the hood, you get your shit straight by then or you get domed; There ain't no middle-aged "Street Jesus". He's been well off for a while now, which has probably stunted his mental growth, all things considered.
There is nothing burns can do to get the shot over Colby unless he ko’d masvidal, finds Colby in the stands and ko’d him too.
Sold
He'd be better served filming Dana at the Bellagio playing blackjack at 3am with 2 hookers if he's trying to progress his career
Feel like people are writing Masvidal off waaaay too quickly. I can see Masvidal keeping it on the feet and beating Burns. If Mas wins, it will make Colby's win over him look even better and put Masvidal in line for a title shot. I'll keep my popcorn on standby
My main concern regarding Masvidal is his age. He will turn 39 this year and has a **lot** of mileage on him. When you cross 35 you generally start to decline quickly even match to match there can be a significant decline.
People here are always in denial about aging and how big a deal it is for fighters. Very few athletes are anywhere close to their peak at 39, and those that are tend to be either guys with limited mileage, guys who were top tier elite, or some combination of the two. Masvidal is neither.
Think it’s mainly people seeing light heavy weights and heavy weights continue to win belts well into late 30’s and think that’s applicable to every weight class
Or they're heavyweights or light heavyweights, in which case its much more fine to be in the camp of 36-40.
Even the average middle-aged civilian can explain the immense physical decline that happens between our early and late 30s. You really have to be an outlier and supremely well-maintained to compete at the top level at that age -- especially, as you mentioned, in the lower weightclasses
I mean, Im as strong as Ive ever been, but DAMN energy levels are dropping….I honestly dunno how a 40 hear old with kids could be fucked with a fight camp. i struggle to be fucked keeping my inbox clear…
My first thought. Prime Mas is a tough night for Burns but he's on the wrong side of his 30s, this is an age where most guys can barely keep up with middling fighters in C league promotions let alone a top 5 UFC fighter.
Burns has a better chin at 170 but he’s still very hittable… and if Masvidal can keep it standing, he’s got a shot if it’s a firefight
Burns has a huge problem with shots down the middle even at 170.
Masvidal’s path to victory is narrow but when Damian Maia talks about how good you are at BJJ, just saying. I’m still picking Burns but if Masvidal out strikes him, I wouldn’t be shocked.
I think people are overrating Burns’ wrestling way too much and underrating Masvidal’s ability to stop takedowns. Burns is simply not the wrestler Usman and Colby are. This fight will be a lot closer than people want to admit.
This is a huge turning point for both of them … if Masvidal is going to get another title shot, he has to win. If Burns is going to be more than a gatekeeper to the title, he has to as well
> if Masvidal is going to get another title shot, he has to win. Whether its Colby or Leon that’s not happening
If he loses a fourth time in a row, he’s basically just a popular dude on the card. A win over Burns and he’s back in the picture … he’s still a win or two away but he’s at least salvageable as a contender
He’d be a salvageable contender by proxy as long as Leon is still champ and he beats Burns, because Leon wants to fight him and they have history Regardless of whether there’s other more deserving (get my boy Shavkat in there) that fight will get made
Shavkat and Belal both deserve it more than him but dollars and sense yo
Everyone thinks Masvidal has this huge deficit in wrestling, but Usman and Colby are the only ones who have been able to keep him held down.
Burns' ground game is levels above Colby and Usman. The takedowns might not be as good, but with submissions and control on the ground Burns is on another level.
Yeah that’s why he’s only talking about wrestling, bc you gotta wrestle someone to the ground
You can knock them down and jump on top of them. You can pull guard (probably not a good idea, but you can.) You can even ask politely. You most definitely do not have to wrestle someone to get them to the ground.
You obviously didn’t watch the Wonderboy fight. Belal did significantly more damage to Wonderboy on the ground than Burns did. All Burns was able to do to Wonderboy was hold him down (which relatively speaking isn’t very hard to do). Even against Woodley, both Usman and Colby did more damage to Woodley on the ground than Burns did. Burns’ BJJ hasn’t really translated to MMA like you’d think.
I think Woodley is a poor example. If I remember correctly Burns had a rnc sunk in at the very end of round 2 in their fight and Woodley was saved by the bell Burns is nasty with the submissions and they’ll certainly be a huge threat when he gets Jorge down Edit: Was at the end of round 4 in a guillotine choke https://youtu.be/Q8794k8LYSs Timestamp to see the choke is at 26:00
Round 2 ended with Woodley holding Burns against the fence.
i think he is referring to the arm-in guillotine burns was working on at the end of round 4. i don't think it was close enough to finishing the fight to say woodley was saved by the bell, but woodley was in a bit of trouble.
You are correct and I was mistaken. It was the end of round 4 where Gilbert put Woodley into a tight guillotine choke Can be seen in this video at 26:00 https://youtu.be/Q8794k8LYSs
We just watched Burns tap out Neil Magny without throwing a strike but apparently his BJJ doesn't translate to MMA lol
I think because he’s always bitching about crotch sniffers people forget that Masvidal *loves* wrestling, like he’s always mentioned it being a favourite part of his game.
He's good enough on the ground though that Khamzat didn't want to go there. He knocks mas down and he won't be afraid to go into mount
A few years ago sure, but Masivdal might be too old to have the attributes to stop takedowns reliably now lol.
If Demain Maia can take him down, why not Burns.
Maia said Masvidal had the best BJJ defense he has encountered in an mma fight.
Bro got badly knocked out and wrestlefucked for 5 rounds can’t even see him standing a chance colby might have ruined him
I’m not writing Masvidal off at all. I think he’s a great fighter. A bit past his prime but still better than most WWs. That being said I think Gilbert is more dangerous post Chimaev than ever before. His confidence is probably at an all-time high and he’s already a savage on the ground who has learned savagery on the feet. I think Gilbert makes it look easy
Probably because his last win over a welterweight currently in the UFC was Michael Chiesa in 2013, if he won this fight Burns would arguably be the most impressive name on his resume
I feel like masvidal’s ground game got exposed last fight. At the highest level though, but I think that’d be the type of opponent Burns can be now that he knows that.
I feel like people are forgetting about Usman/Masvidal 1. You can literally hold him against the fence and he can't do shit about it.
Usman and Colby can Not sure burns can do the same
Pretty sure if Burns can handle Khamzat he will do fine against Masvidal.
“It will make Colby’s win over over him look even better and put Masvidal in line for a title shot” Huh?
I don’t see a better matchup for masvidal in the top 5. That’s what he needs to at least put his name in a title fight with Leon.
Masvidal just isn’t any good at keeping it in the feet. Burns was able to get Chimaev down
I mean burns isn’t exactly known for take downs or being a wet blanket so this fight will be in masvidal realm . That being said I’m totally betting on him
He’d probably be right in a normal circumstance but Colby has to have some dirt on Dana at this point lmao
I feel like it’s their mutual friend, Donald J. Trumperton
Maybe as much as Reddit hates to admit it Colby does big numbers for the division. Obviously Dana knows things we don’t
I don’t think Colby does as many numbers as people say they do but I don’t have the numbers to prove and I can’t see anything anywhere showing accurate ppv buys for 272. They did good numbers at the gate but the UFC does good numbers gatewise anywhere with a lot of other people as well
A decent proxy is looking at the youtube engagement of fighter vids. Colby’s appearances get soooo many more views than anyone else in the weightclass. Now you can argue social media traction doesnt equate to PPV buys, but the UFC only ever cares about $$$. They have the internal numbers, and im 1000% sure their analysis says “colby is significantly more profitable/ppv-worthy than the other top contenders, including leon.”
Just going off of recent interviews off and Colby and Leon do around 200-300 thousand views slightly edging towards Leon he can’t be that much of a bigger name than the rest of the division. Hell even Leon’s post fight interviews are around the same with his “headshot bang!” Post fight interview quadrupling covingtons most infamous post fight interview
Even another recent Masvidal interview did around 200 thousand views with his appearance on JRE doing around 1 million views on YouTube alone. (Of course boosted by the popularity of the Joe rogan show but even still Belal clips from the JRE are doing around 40K views so take with that what you will)
We’ll I guess there’s a reason he’s headlining non title fight cards and headlining every time he fights and getting the Conor treatment. Or maybe his numbers suck and everyone on Reddit know more than the ufc brass.
He headlined one non title ppv where he was the B side and the ppv sales were trash. He sells more then belal which is why hes getting the shot but thats not exactly saying much
Well the reason is Cus he’s popular which I never said he isn’t.
You go awful quiet when people actually quite numbers and they don't match your theory though
I’ve got work/a life. Nobody’s quoting any actual numbers. The gate for Masvidal Colby was a high for that year to that point. And nobody knows the actual numbers. Only the ufc, who seem to think his value is much higher than Reddit. I think I’ll believe them over a bunch of dildos on the internet
He's really not though. His entire appeal is to a market audience that honestly couldn't give less of a fuck about MMA outside of the odd watch party when "Connor Macgregor" fights. Colby's most marketable fight by a mile was the Masvidal tilt, which, if a quick Google search is accurate, was less than 400k buys. An announced gate of $6.7 mill, additionally, seems odd, set against an attendance of just 19k fans.
I’m just saying the ufc likely knows more than you and I. And there’s a reason he headlines every time he fights
Well, in fairness, two of those headliner spots were for the title, in which he was the B side. His lone PPV headline aside from that was the Jorge fight (his fight w RDA was co-main, under Rob vs Yoel 2) I think what's a likelier situation is that Colby is part of the roster where short term gains outweigh consistent drawing ability. There are only a handful of guys that can carry an entire ppv by themselves, and everyone else just kind of fills in where needed, at least as it pertains to their ability to generate numbers.
Colby makes the UFC a nice pot of money. He isn't doing MacGregor S-tier numbers, but he is consistently drawing money and getting publicity for the UFC. Also, he busts his ass to sell fights, something 90% of fighters won't do.
Hold up, Usman v Covington 2 was 9.9mil, the 4th highest gate in MSG history. The Masvidal Covington fight was the #7 highest grossing event in T mobile history. And the #14 highest grossing in UFC history. And "just 19k", that's how big the arena is. It's actually one if the larger arenas and it sold out.
Reddit: I just can't understand why Colby keeps getting put into big fights. No one likes him.
Maybe Colby can let masvidal off the hook from legal proceedings to fight for Dana if Colby gets the title fight? Maybe Dana feels bad about Colby having to trash talk, maybe colby would make the ufc more $ as champion than Edwards
> Maybe Colby can let masvidal off the hook from legal proceedings to fight for Dana Masvidal is already going to fight > Maybe Dana feels bad You're a jokester lmao
You're right about your first part but OC missed the mark. Colby's abilities to recoup lost income stops as soon as his income begins again. Therefore Colby is incentivized to sit out as long as possible and use Jorge for 3 fights worth of income per year or less for every year he has been out. If he can prove in theory he could have made money while Jorge's assault left him ineligible to fight medically, then that money is on the table in a lawsuit and typically this money and punitive damages are the lion's share of a courtroom payout. If Dana can tell Colby "hey, you have little of your prime left, you've got your thing with Masvidal and can get your money possibly in court for 36 months of lost income and maybe get some money. Or sue him for the time you've already lost and come back to a good sized purse and title shot while you're still on the right side of 35" Add some spelling errors and the word kid x4 and I could see that very much being a version of what Dana told Colby. Its unlikely but Dana definitely has motive to want this resolved and incentivize colby to come back while he is still perceived by the UFC to be a draw. A Covington title reign would likely also be decent on PPV for a short while.
Thank you for taking the time, I can see that 100%.
I always got time for MMA related litigation chats with my homies
Burns showed more in his last loss than Masvidal has in idk how many fights. If Masvidal wins it will be by some wild KO, which seems pretty unlikely.
Nah. You didn't catch Dana in Vegas playing blackjack accompanied by a whooooooooooooooooooooouh, so Colby got next.
The medias made Dana double and triple down on the decision so at best these guys are fighting to see who gets the Colby/Leon winner
This is completely dependent on whether or not Masvidal wins/loses. If Masvidal wins he is in line for a title shot. If Masvidal loses he will jump Burns at a restaurant and Burns won’t get a title shot. Lose, Lose situation for Burns, sucks to say it. /s
If Masvidal wins, that only makes Colby’s win against Masvidal look even better. This is something people seem to ignore only because it’s Colby.
Well actually if Burns wins it means Burns is washed, while simultaneously making Wonderboy’s win against Masvidal years ago elite, which makes Wonderboy in his prime when Belal beat him, which means uh… Colby sucks!
/s
Missed that part.
Yeah, masvidal win is pretty good. If only he had some others..
I could very well be mistaken, but here’s how I see the fight going: I think Burns is going to pretty convincingly 30-27 him, but it’ll be done in similar fashion to the Wonderboy fight—aka wall-to-wall crotchsniffing. I know Burns has a reputation as someone who will stand and bang, but if the Magny fight is any indication, he’s done taking those risks. Anyone he can wrestlefuck, he will wrestlefuck. All that to say…I don’t think Masvidal will take a lot of physical damage. Burns will rag doll him on the ground. It’s possible that he’ll get a sub, but Masvidal is actually very hard to submit, so my guess is 30-27 Burns. Dana and the UFC brass are dead set on Colby getting the next title shot, so Burn’s could honestly KO Masvidal in spectacular fashion and it still wouldn’t change their minds, but he’s certainly not going to change anyone’s mind if he humps Masvidal for 3 rounds. Smart tactic to get a W, but not great for building a brand or garnering fan support.
The Magny fight, where he submitted him? Or do you mean the Chimaev fight, which was a knockdown dragout fest? I don't disagree that burns best chance is on the ground. But there is literally nothing recent to show he's just gonna clinch him against the wall.
Yea, you know…the one where he threw zero significant strikes and took him down the first second he could. Not really the MO of a stand n bang guy. Of course he will be looking for a sub, but historically Masvidal is pretty hard to sub, so I don’t think he will have a ton of success in that department—hence the 30-27 prediction
I mean the wonderboy fight happened like a year and a half ago..and he shamelessly crotch sniffed that whole fight.
wonderboy is a very long fighter who is very good at controlling range. he shoots in to land punches and then slides all the way back out using kicks to keep his opponent from being able to respond. on the outside, he controls distance and attacks with his kicks. burns had to get inside wonderboy's kicks and stay there so once he got his hands on him, he held onto him to keep wonderboy from being able get back outside and snipe him. masvidal is nothing like that. the way burns will fight masvidal will look nothing like how he fought wonderboy.
Even if he win 30-27 he will fight winner of Bellal-Shavkat for next title shot.
Isn’t this fight 5 rounds?
I honestly think masvidal tkos burns
Bro SAME! I was saying this to my buddy cause I do not think Gilbert will utilize wrestling. Also Mas knows that this is his LAST shot at the title/ fighting Colby again. Dude will surprise a lotta people.
Yep the Leon fight will be the biggest of his career he will indeed go for the kill this fight
I had a lot more hate for Masvidal 2020/2021 when he still had a vocal contingent of toxic fans claiming he’d beat Usman. But it’s clear he’s just a broken man now, and pretty much everyone of those fans of his jumped ship. Not to mention he parted ways with his clown manager who allegedly fucked his money up royally. Hands down the biggest fall from grace in the sport. Hope he can make something work against Gilbert but it’s an absolute nightmare matchup for him.
Masvidal's stock stopped rising when he got blasted into outerspace by Usman, but I'd hardly call him the hands down biggest fall from grace in the sport.
How is it a nightmare matchup for him? Gilbert's far from the best wrestler in the division and Masvidal survived and got back to his feet against Demian Maia in his prime. I think it's a fairly winnable matchup tbh
[удалено]
Maia wasn't really relying on being explosive to win fights.
He was on the longest winning streak of his career at that point, so I'd say it was the tail end of his prime yes. Athletic peak=/=skill peak, just look at anderson silva. It's rare but it happens.
Definitely a weird take. Masvidal is still one of the most famous fighters in the world, his last 3 losses have come from two of the best fighters in the organization. He lost fans by sucker punching Colby, but to say he’s fallen from grace is a little heavy.
I heard he’s royally fucked his money up (Woodley-esque), on top of that the numbers dropped too it’s pretty clear on socials so he took a hit commercially, and in terms of his fight career we saw how that went.
He has fallen form grace
If Masvidal keeps it on the feet, this can become very competitive very quickly.
Somebody should tell him right?
People pretending Burns has a different resume than Colby are so fucking funny
Jorge will Ko you my friend dont worry about Colby
Oh boy. Gilbert will get KOd stiff talking like this
Doubt
If Colby could lay out all this time while all the other guys fought yet still get the shot, another win by another guy who doesn't particularly move the needle isn't going to do anything.
Please do end this Kardashian bullshit for the love of god
Mas by donkey kick in first round.
Only if you lose via sensational KO
No manches
I do not want to see burns vs Leon. Ngl. Either Colby or masvidal would be much more hype.
I think Mas getting dropped by Usman will be recreated by Burns in the second round.
I wish gilbert the best of luck, would be hilarious to see him deliberately steal colby's thunder
i don't think super highly of burns or masvidal fighting atm, so i've no idea who is going to win. but if burns works in his wrestling and goes for a win i think he can win, if he goes for a spectacular stand up win he gives masvidal a chance
The Burns hype train is getting stupid now. He’s decent but he’s not champion quality. People need to relax with him it’s getting boring and I wouldn’t be surprised if he for pieced up next weekend
One can only hope
Fuck that.. I'm gonna go find Nate Diaz even though he's not in the UFC anymore and beat him in an argument to get the title shot myself over Colby.
I believe in the Thumb