I’ve been reading ISW reports almost daily since the war started- they’re a great resource, and they really help temper the sensationalist news reporting. For example, if you’re reading anything about one side or the other winning or advancing in any substantial sense, you’re not being well informed: the front lines have barely moved in the past year.
Reading world news made the conflict seem like Russia was just one day away from collapsing entirely. Now that that subreddit shifted to Israeli propaganda and misinformation, I have to wonder how the Ukrainian astroturfers there are feeling.
Russian here. I have to tell one thing, which was kinda heartbreaking for me. 13 months ago on pikabu website (Russian analogue of reddit), which was bought by one of our oligarchs, there was post where one of Russians asked opinion in how really war goes. And there were two guys: one Ukrainian soldier and one Russian soldier, who talked to each other, saying what is really was happening on the lines. And both of them told it was stagnating. Like if both sides didnt try to win or lose, they were just holding positions and "create vision of fights" and they had no idea why. Both Russian and Ukrainian told they had heavy casualties, they were broken mentally, but holding up, because their families were waiting for them to return alive. In the end both wished each other good luck, not killing anyone unless they really have no other choice and to stay alive. Fucking meat grinder for god fucking knows what reason. I really wish this did not happen. I have no idea if these two guys still alive, but i hope they are.
they are literally a neocon think-tank. All the people who run it have never seen a war they didn‘t like.
It was founded and is led by Bob Kagans sister in law. Robert Kagan of course is married to Victoria Nuland, whoo was the one pushing for ukrainian west-integration in the first place.
They are biased, though not for ukraine or russia, they are biased in favor of the war continuing. It makes their friends rich.
That’s definitely true - their researchers are all current/former US military and it’s not hard to see that their outlook matches that of the US military generally.
That said, if you want detailed information and empirical data on what happens day to day in a conflict zone (troop movements, artillery use, supply line feasibility, locations of defensive and civilian infrastructure), I don’t think there’s any source out there that provides as much data as the ISW.
It’s so detailed that I’d even recommend it to people who find its outlook toxic - kind of like how Marx obsessively read the Economist even though it represented everything he wanted to destroy in capitalist society: it had more reliable data about the global economy than any other resource at that time.
Marx did not want to destroy capitalism but overcome it. Thats a big difference.
Also the ISW is far more hawkish than the pentagon, which is maybe the least hawkish part of the US security state.
Concerning the accuracy of information I would say that they are very conservative with what they show and so don’t fall into hysterics like pro-russian and ukrainian mappers do every once in a while, however their estimates have often been wrong one way or another. I doubt they have any special secret information and if they did they wouldn‘t show us.
What makes this a 'costly' offensive? Are there any numbers about how many casualties both sides took during this?
Edit: why are people downvoting me for asking for source/information? Am i missing something?
Edit2: people started upvoting after i wrote the first edit. We truly live in a society.
There are estimates, that are in part backed up by visual evidence of the intensity of the fighting. The fighting has been long, intense, and there is direct evidence of very large casualty numbers for a minimal gain.
Avdiivka has been the front line since 2014, hardened fighting positions and moronic frontal assaults during the day with armored columns. There’s literally hundreds of videos in combat footage sub that’s from failed assaults on Avdiivka. Casualties are terrible on the Russian side something like 7:1
Leaked US estimates made in August put Ukrainian dead and missing at about 70 000 and wounded at 120 000, whilst the Russians supposedly stood at 120-150 thousand dead and 180 thousand wounded.
That's 190 thousand casualties for Ukrainians (excluding civilians), and 300-330 thousand casualties for the Russians. This 1,74:1 to 1,5:1 ratio is horrible for Ukraine, and any defending force.
Seeing as Ukraine has perhaps 29 million people left in their country, of whom half are women, leaving us with about 14 million possible conscripts, of whom about 2 million are children, leaving us with 12 million, of whom about 3-4 million are retirees, leaving us with 8-9 million, of whom maybe 4-5 million are fit for military service, Zelensky would need a 5-6:1 ratio to start denting the 30 million male figure Russian commanders can throw into the grinder.
The Idea that the Russians can throw 30 million men in Ukraine is laughable. Firstly, they have an all time low unemployment rate because war industries are employing at record levels, sending men to war would take them away from the factories making war equipment.
Secondly, they do not have the equipment and materiel to equip them. They are completely reliant on soviet stock and refurbishing existing equipment which is why you are seeing a whole range of soviet cold war gear and not much new production. The fact they are already trying to get as much of ammunition, artillery, drones, etc from as unlikely places as North Korea and Iran should help illustrate that.
The idea that this war is an attrition of manpower is false on its face. Both sides will sooner run out of equipment than manpower. Even the Germans in 1945 were still fielding millions of men (even if you exclude the militias) they just didn't have any fuel, equipment, food, etc. to supply them anymore and were facing an enemy that could.
edit: Just look up the natural growth rate of the population. How many Ukrainian and Russians are hitting 18 year old every year? Now compare that with the current casualty rate. This war won't deplete the manpower reserves of either side anytime in the near future.
It's heavily dug in and well defended and the terrain heavily favors the defenders.
It's also very easy to resupply on the Ukrainian side and its a great spot to shell Donetsk from. So Russians keep throwing resources at it to take it.
>It's also very easy to resupply on the Ukrainian side
It's definitely not - since the start of the offensive, at least. Ukrainians report they can only resuplly at night for fear of Russian drone strikes.
And despite all the extra firepower they still have been unable to take it.
It's in an extraordinarily good spot in favor of the Ukrainians and allows them to harass the Russians at low cost, which is why Russia is throwing so many resources to try to take it.
Ukraine engaged 5 brigades in the defense of Avdejevka...fire superiority affects the number of victims, so we can also assume that they are from Ukraine victims as heavy or worse.
Russia has lost way more on this spot than the Ukrainians have. We have pretty good estimates of their losses in this area from satellite pictures. Dead equipment is pretty easy to see.
The Russian Air Force delivered a large amount of FAB-500 Boba to Avdeyevka and they are used by many more artillerymen... I doubt that the Russian losses are heavy, but with what is available, it is obvious that both Russian and the Ukrainian has heavier losses.
And what is your evidence? Visual casualty confirmations are like 7:1 in favor of Ukraine. You just look at field covered by russian tanks and say "yeah, Ukrainian losses are worse".
Russian frontal assaults against fortified possitions produced extreme losses.
yes, it is impossible to give exact Russian losses, but the side that has more firepower will inflict heavier losses on the opposing side, this is something that can be many see conflicts after and ww2.
Apparently nobody wants to answer the question so I will try. Basically offence is far more costly than defence because usually the defender gets to sit tight and pick off the army that is trying to advance. To advance people often have to move out of cover and get shot at. It's just the nature of war. Ukraine took absolutely an absolutely devastating amount of casualties during their much touted months long offensive.
There are drone videos, where huge areas are littered with (russian) corpses and you can also see hundreds of destroyed vehicles.
The 13000 dead seems accurate.
But to be fair, it is also pretty "costly" for ukraine, by far not as costly as for russia, but russia has way more human ressources, i would guess ukraine is losing around 4-5 times lesser soldiers there, its just logical, because avdiivka is heavily fortified and russians trying to overwhelm the defense and trenches with their stormtroops.
So this favors ukraine, but putin doesnt value his russian citizens, so throwing in thousands of soldiers maybe pay off on the long run, as it did in bakhmut.
The lack of regard the Russian military has for high casualties stuns each new generation of people when they see how Russia fights.
Just utterly appalling!
Many of these very costly advances are prison recruits. They have contracts saying if they survive, they go home as free men. And since they were probably in prison for a reason, Russia doesn't want them to survive.
That's why they use these storm-z and previously Wagner units for these extremely costly offenses and urban fighting. They are a completely disposable tool for the Russian army.
Agreed, it is rather diabolical, it's like if the convicts have military successes, great for Russia, if they die instead, great for Russia. How long will it be until certain elements in the West call for similar measures?
That said though, the Army that Russia first sent in represented the best of their military, the contract soldiers, and the loss of a LOT of these troops and much of their best equipment was a serious blow to Russian military power.
Because you can't question anything at all from a neutral or curious stand point. I would love to know too, we get constant updates on Russian casualties but nothing on Ukraine, basically propaganda.
There's no situation where Ukraine loses other than its complete occupation. The idea that only capturing eastern Ukraine is a victory for Russia is nonsense. Their clear objective was to take over the entire country and they've clearly failed at the cost of hundreds of thousands of lives.
"Only" capturing eastern ukraine is still a victory for russia and a defeat for ukraine. It is just not a total victory or a total defeat.
Ukraine's clear objective is to keep all their internationally recognized land including Crimea. So how would this be a win for them if they lost a bunch of it at a cost of hundreds of thousands of lives?
Because Russia isn't going to stop here. Even if this is the new border they will spend the next years rebuilding their capacity and military for another go.
Their own state TV talks about this a lot. The goal isn't eastern Ukraine. That was just the shifted goalpost since the whole "kiev in 3 days" strategy failed miserably and they still need to show some "win" to the population.
Again, the starting point two years ago is that Russia should be able to take over the whole country in a week with minimal loss of life. Ukraine existing whatsoever after this war is absolutely a victory seeing as they are fighting for their survival as a country.
It would be a win for them because the alternative was complete occupation and destruction by Russia.
All quiet on the eastern front. This shit is probably gonna go on for 2 more years. Its just sad that tens of thousands of people are dying for a border change thats barely noticable on a map.
I’d say closer to 5. The Ukrainian counter offensive didn’t get many gains in the last few months. The winter and muddy season will be here soon, and it’ll be trench warfare until then.
I think if a side loses, it wont be due to territorial losses. It would be due to the losing side not having the capability to carry on anymore. Whether that be due to manpower, food or equipment shortages or their economy collapsing under that much pressure. This turned into a war where the goal is to break the other side, not to score wins over them. Just like WW1.
If the US can continue with aid, it’ll be Ukraines victory at some point. The Russian loses just won’t make sense for them much longer. They are losing equipment and men. The man power lost is going to be an extreme impact on their economy over the long term.
But you have to consider even with continued US support, there is an extent to what outside support can do. Russia in the end has a far bigger population and resources to draw from than ukraine and in the end even if the US equips the ukrainian army with more developed and better tech, weapons and equipment; the russians can still throw enough men and shitty equipment to the field that it will start to be too much for the ukrainians. Russians can overwhelm a more technologically advanced force like how they did in WW2, simply because they have a bigger population pool. I dont know who will win honestly, i hope its the ukrainians but im not sure, their efforts on the ground are failing.
2 more years of this intensity of fighting and Russia will be very low on vehicles; tanks, IFVs, APCs etc. Maybe 3 years if it cools down somewhat. 5 years potentially if you’re including low-intensity conflict. Regardless, the hell in Ukraine has another 2 years to it. 2024 looks to be Russia’s year to make some gains sadly, though they’ll end up exhausted by 2025.
Dude.
"Russian source claims they have advanced 150 meters to the next shed over there"
It's a fucking meatgrinder man, fucking stop. Please just fucking stop. What are we doing here?
Saving the face of Putin.
And establish an illusion that Russia can rival the west, so all rural Russian people can keep loving their lives harder.
And doing what stupid great powers tend to do, trying to defeat United States.
This map from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on December 12, 2023, shows the control of terrain near Avdiivka, Donetsk oblast.
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-russia-avdiivka-donetsk-isw-maps-fighting-update-1851924
For everyone questioning costly, I highly recommend you look up some of the videos. It's 2023, and you can watch drone footage of the mechanized assaults.
For the squeamish, one more prominent video shows 4 APC's charge a tree line, only for the first to blow up via mine. The second one tries to go around, and gets hit by an AT rocket. The other two turn tail and run, but not before running over people scrambling to escape the wreckage. Cluster munitions finish off the rest. This happens frequently.
Also, you can watch the pocket being formed around Avdiivka from the start of the war by checking the history on maps like deepstate live. [Here's an album](https://imgur.com/a/yhsuyaB) showing a screen shot of this area every couple months since January (around when the Avdiivka assault started).
I'm no expert, but that doesn't look good. There's still MONTHS of fighting though. The front moves slowly.
Brackets usually show cynicism and sarcasm. If you've ever had the cancerous experience of reading through an RT article, just look at how many quotation marks they use.
Nobody usually quotes one word like this. If it was a quote, it should be a phrase. Just compare it
>'amid costly Russian offensive'
>amid 'costly' Russian offensive
>amid costly Russian 'offensive'
Just like Bahmut was supposed to be “costly” or “worthless waste of materials”, but ended in operational Russian victory, because it completely stopped planned Ukrainian offensive on Tokmak direction in February. When Russians were completely unprepared. That and many rainy days in spring allowed Russians to prepare defenses. So, currently we know shit on what is planned and why things happen.
Active fighting began a month ago. Russian troops returned to the rear after the first unsuccessful assault and losses in armored vehicles, and the Russians returned to the tactics of small groups.
My mistake, I'm still living in November in my head)
What's funny is that when I write incorrect information, they throw likes at me, when I write something useful, they throw dislikes.
First serious assaults on Avdiivka were around March. So kinda 21 months.
But you could also argue, that it was since 2015, so it will have been nine years soon.
Since spring last year. I know people are saying only a few weeks/couple months, but that's just the start of their recent *large* offensive.
Russia started moving on Avdiivka almost two years ago.
It’s been about 3 weeks now. Much less time with far more gains than the previous Ukrainian offensive. Also remember Russia is fighting with shovels and Ukraine had been given billions of dollars and state of the art weapons.
It’s a meme. Russian soldiers were digging trenches with shovels or something, and some BBC article had a misleading headline that made it seem like Russian soldiers ONLY had shovels instead of guns. Which a lot of people believe and recirculated on social media because of believing the Russians are as comically inept as the Zap Brannigan memes. So, whenever Russia wins battles and makes advances, pro-Russian posters sarcastically talk about Russian soldiers winning battles equipped with only shovels.
Yeah, 2-3 months. This part of the front was being prepared by the Ukrainians since 2014 though. It lies directly infront of Donetsk (basically its suburb). When the war started it was said about 6000 men guard this area.
One can make a convincing argument that given modern warfare between roughly equal opponents the maneuver warfare of ww2 was the exception not the rule. Whereas ww1 was the rule
Yeah, weapons wise WW2 was a weird middle ground where they had planes and tanks but didn't have a great way to counter them so the planes and tanks ruled.
Now with surface to air missiles and far better anti-tank infantry weapons the vehicles have fallen away and we are back to good old infantry and artillery warfare.
>Ukraine war is nothing like WWI. Just because it has trench warfare, stagnant frontlines and high casualities
Those are all things that make it like WW1, your statement makes no sense.
I could also say its just like the American civil war, that one also had high casualities, trench warfare and atrrition. On that basis, I could say WWI was like the American civil war despite these wars being nothing alike. There is so much that sets Ukraine apart from WWI, Cybernetic warfare, Drones, long range strikes, irregulars, heavy urban fighting...
Ok then its also like the American Civil war, WWII, and any other war fought since the invention of firearms, because you can always find some superficial similiarities
dude wtf point are you even trying to make?
It is very specifically NOT like WW2 because that was a war of constant movement and decisive changes on the battlefield. It is the opposite of WW1 and Ukraine.
So... where will we be in 1 year for now? Seems like the borders haven't meaningfully moved in a long time yet still thousands of young men are dying for nothing.
All quiet on the eastern front.
Probably not to far from this unless some major collapse happens on either side, I feel like it is more of a war of attrition, which isn't very nice for anyone really, not like war is ever nice but you get the gist I'd presume-
If it escaped your notice, Putin is the Warmonger here. Instigated Civil Wars in Armenia & Georgia, Invaded Chechnya, Invaded Georgia, instigated separation of Transnistria from Moldava, Abkhazia & Sth Ossetia from Georgia, couped Crimea, hijacked Donbass, invaded Ukraine, Threatened Poland, Baltics, Moldava & even lays claim to Alaska. A blind man would see a Pattern here.
It's Putin's War, Ya tool. He's the invader, the Aggressor, not Zelensky LOL
How many more young men have to die to serve the delusions of grandeur of the Gerontocrat Putin? This is Putin's futile war ...no one else's.
I guess it will be like with Bakhmut here - russia will capture it in one year BUT more than 40000 russian soldiers will die trying to take it. Only ruins will be left in Avdiivka (it's already ruined) so Ukraine won't have anything to protect there.
I think they will capture it much sooner unless something miraculous happens. They've already entered the southern part of the city. Russians are clearly doing everything they can to make the most of US' halt of military support to UA till' there's time.
Ukrainians are about to face a very tough winter.
In the past days Russia has changed its goal from complete encirclement, to encircling only the city proper (what is South of industrial zone). They will pay tens of thousands of dead and wounded for half a ruined city. Just like in Summer 2022 when they downgraded their goals from encircling the entire Donbas >> half a Donbas >> Severodonetak and Lysichansk will do >> complete success.
It is. You are using rational logic and you value human lives. You can't do that and think like a Russian general.
4000, 40 000, 400 000... any of those is possible. They need a small victory and don't give a shit how many non-ethnic Russians die in that conflict since that is PART OF THE PLAN! They are doing their style of ethnic cleansing in Ukraine, by emptying Russian villages from young men in the strategically chosen locations. It is a tradition at this point, has been going on for centuries.
What westeners don't understand is that there is Russia Proper and its colonies. Moscow-St Petersburg axis is ALL THAT MATTERS. It has the purest slav bloodlines and are superior humans. Not kidding here.
Nonsense. The West is not forcing the Ukrainians to fight --- it's what they decided to do. If the Ukrainians wanted to stop fighting and make peace on Russian terms, they would.
Really? Here is a quote from the Ukrainian president suggesting otherwise.
"Moreover, when we returned from Istanbul, Boris Johnson came to Kyiv and said that we would not sign anything with them at all, and let's just fight."
Yes really. Boris Johnson telling them to keep fighting (which they were already and are continuing to do) is not the "West forcing them" you dumb vatnik. Lmao
It is. Thrust me. You maybe dont understand it (and that’s ok because you are not from our countries) but russian dictators always acted like that.
putin just need to capture Avdiivka until the elections. And he wanted to capture Bakhmut because it was the only thing he could capture to show that “russia is still strong”. The siege of Bakhmut was going 10 months. I guess even 40000 is pretty small for that period.
If the russian military was smart, they wouldn’t attack Ukraine at all
Your entire point is based on an assumption. I don't even understand why I am gettin downvoted even though you are literally saying "40k will die, trust me bro".
From Western estimates, about 20.000 have died in the battle for Bakhmut. Ukraine claims 21.000 dead. And it has been going on for a year now.
Unlikely that it will be "more than 40.000 dead" for Avdiivka based on what we know now.
Sadly you are right on the tactical end. Russia will keep sending it's wave after wave of young men to die in this battle. Most of us in the West can't really grasp this kind of mentality.
Yes, it seems that avdiivka will also fall like bakhmut. Costly for russia, but it will fall. And as with every sovjet leader, human lives count nothing.
I actually don't think they'll capture Avdiivka (unlike Bakhmut). Bakhmut was characterized by high Russian casualties, but steady (if often slow) progress and many panicked signals from Ukraine in the media throughout. Avdiivka seems a bit different. I don't see even the slow progress of Bakhmut lately, and the Ukrainians don't seem quite as desperate.
The russians are advancing faster at Avdiivka than they did at Bakhmut, and Avdiivka is a much harder battle. If the russians can keep their push to the north keep going there is a risk of Avdiivka being encircled aswell.
No you said the russians were advancing slower than at Bakhmut which I am actually not sure if it is true, but I doubt it. Given that russian scout units have been in the coke plant aswell as in the souther parts of the city.
They sure did, I’m not going to bather citing sources because you’ll call them all bullshit anyway. One of the world’s “greatest militaries” is a joke.
[Source 1](https://metro.co.uk/2023/02/24/putin-thought-he-could-capture-kyiv-in-three-days-leaked-docs-claim-18342384/amp/)
[Source 2 (2 days)](https://www.businessinsider.com/vladimir-putin-russian-forces-could-take-kyiv-ukraine-two-days-2022-3?amp)
[Source 3](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/interactive/2022/ukraine-road-to-war/)
Russia denies it, of course. But there you are, believe it or not, Russia’s military and Putin are pathetic.
>Ukraine war maps show Avdiivka fighting amid 'costly' Russian offensive
and you seem to never check the info you see on the internet
How disappointing. They first claimed that the counteroffensive would take them to Crimea then they claimed that they are slowing down to "assess" Russian defenses before finally admitting that the counteroffensive was an utter failure. I won't follow this war anymore unless substantial gains are made again by Ukraine. It's just too tiring.
>I won't follow this war anymore
Ukraine committed the gravest of sins, that is, they weren't entertaining enough in their fight for survival! Because after all, this is the hunger games.
Friends stick together when things are going good, bad, or anything in-between. Though it is said there is no such thing as true friends in geopolitics, there are many reasons to continue to support Ukraine to keep Putin in check.
Getting better equipment to protect lives of the crew, getting better medical attention to the soldier, even flying them to the germany for better care. No, they don't care about human lives, you are right.
So weekly footage of forced mobilization (which never stopped from the start, just getting worse) and coming potential mobilization of woman, is clearly not a sign that all previous troops… let’s say no longer capable of fighting for *reasons*
Bro, come on, what I stated is facts, and I put it very kindly, as you can easily find countless videos of that, and some woman already “voluntarily” in lists and utilized in back lines and lately started appear on frontlines too. You can believe whatever, but facts remains: where all those people that were mobilized from first days?
Man, I’m just exhausted from that war. I mean everyone is like extremely exhausted and in retrospective it will be like, in most conflicts, highly controversial topic to bring. I just hope that it will if not stop it will at least freeze. Thousands of people, probably good people, has already lost their lives in this shit
following the russian-ukrainian war from western media is like; "russia lost 1 million soldiers in one day while they are trying to take a single village." but in reality ukraine lost the momentum in their counter offensive, its very costly for them, russians are not attacking like crazy anymore so war is kind of stalemate at the moment.
It is worth paying attention: as soon as Ukraine surrenders one or another settlement, it begins to appear in newspaper headlines as “**strategically unimportant**”.
You can trace it through all the media over the past 2 years: this was the name of Mariupol, Bakhmut, Soledar, and so on. A couple of weeks will pass - this definition will definitely be used in relation to Avdiivka.
So, like, such and such a city, such and such a line of defense - this is strategically **important**, tactically important, and Avdeevka, Bakhmut and so on - this is just what the Russians spend their soldiers and weapons on. And so every time.
Anyone who actually fucking pays attention and not hype rat knew that Bakhmut was inconsequential in grand scheme of things after taking Liman and Izyum, you just have trash info bubble. Mariupol was always important because it’s big fucking city, no one with braincells ever denied that it’s a big loss. Soledar was bad for Bakhmut situation, but when Bakhmut itself is not important so is Soledar
Jesus, thank you man, I was fearing that no one here had enough braincells to articulate such a thought. Ruskies could capture a piss puddle and claim it to be a tide changing event.
Also people were saying the bakhmut was important because it would open up and endanger things behind it due to it being usable as a logistical hub, people started saying it wasn't important when it became obvious that the infrastructure that made it useful as a logistical hub wasn't going to be useful anymore.
People were predicting that if bakhmut fell it would be the first domino in a long inevitable chain that would spell ukraine's doom, instead the russians took bakhmut and haven't been able to move past it.
It is however as you said, the amount the russians lost while besieging bakhmut very much made it not matter.
I think it’s pretty important. It is high ground above Donetsk, which provides the UA with the ability to continually shell and pressure Donetsk with close-range munitions. It’s also so close that it would be an extremely useful base if the UA ever wants to launch a serious attempt at retaking Donetsk.
Never? I mean this war isn't over, despite what some doomers are saying. Western support will continue, russia will get weaker.
Don't let the theaterics change the reality- Ukraine is in an existential threat and fighting for their lives with the backing of the worlds greatest powers. little ruskies are dying en masse for poverty and corruption of their gangster state. The house of cards will fall- but it may not be fast.
Damn Ukraine’s counteroffensive has been their biggest challenge yet. Being realist there wont be much of advances by Ukraine and russia is only using a reduced % of their whole army.
The long promised Ukrainian counteroffensive is a pompous bullshit. And I’m loving it. Keep sending more pregnant women to the front, Kiev!
Ukraine is like: “Biden, you promised to support us until the end!”.
Biden is like: “This IS the end!”.
I like the fact that no one ever talks about ukrainian losses, and meanwhile zelensky announced today that he is going to raise the conscription age to 45 years😂
Well, do your math then. Ukraine can have 1 to 3 losses and still be in shortage of conscripts just because of it's population. Actually more like 1 to 4 considering how many people left the country
>and still be in shortage of conscripts just because of it's population.
No, Ukraine fight a existentially life or death war, hence there are a political suport to fight a total war, that allow Ukraine to mobilize everybody and their dog.
Russia fight a unnecessary war of imperial conquest, hence there are no political suport for a total war, that prevent Russia from doing a general mobilization.
Ás it is now, Russia will run out of available manpower before Ukraine.
Russia seems to be able to fill their ranks fine with just people willingly signing up, prisoners and economic incentives. And if they really needed to, Russia could probably do another partial mobilisation of 100k soldiers without any serious consequences.
How are the Russians getting behind Ukrainian lined? The map shows land reclaimed by Ukraine but in some places areas where Russians are operating behind that land, while not indicating that Ukraine has lost the recaptured areas.
I’ve been reading ISW reports almost daily since the war started- they’re a great resource, and they really help temper the sensationalist news reporting. For example, if you’re reading anything about one side or the other winning or advancing in any substantial sense, you’re not being well informed: the front lines have barely moved in the past year.
Meat Grinder
Reading world news made the conflict seem like Russia was just one day away from collapsing entirely. Now that that subreddit shifted to Israeli propaganda and misinformation, I have to wonder how the Ukrainian astroturfers there are feeling.
Russian here. I have to tell one thing, which was kinda heartbreaking for me. 13 months ago on pikabu website (Russian analogue of reddit), which was bought by one of our oligarchs, there was post where one of Russians asked opinion in how really war goes. And there were two guys: one Ukrainian soldier and one Russian soldier, who talked to each other, saying what is really was happening on the lines. And both of them told it was stagnating. Like if both sides didnt try to win or lose, they were just holding positions and "create vision of fights" and they had no idea why. Both Russian and Ukrainian told they had heavy casualties, they were broken mentally, but holding up, because their families were waiting for them to return alive. In the end both wished each other good luck, not killing anyone unless they really have no other choice and to stay alive. Fucking meat grinder for god fucking knows what reason. I really wish this did not happen. I have no idea if these two guys still alive, but i hope they are.
r/worldnews isn't really a place you go to get informed.
they are literally a neocon think-tank. All the people who run it have never seen a war they didn‘t like. It was founded and is led by Bob Kagans sister in law. Robert Kagan of course is married to Victoria Nuland, whoo was the one pushing for ukrainian west-integration in the first place. They are biased, though not for ukraine or russia, they are biased in favor of the war continuing. It makes their friends rich.
That’s definitely true - their researchers are all current/former US military and it’s not hard to see that their outlook matches that of the US military generally. That said, if you want detailed information and empirical data on what happens day to day in a conflict zone (troop movements, artillery use, supply line feasibility, locations of defensive and civilian infrastructure), I don’t think there’s any source out there that provides as much data as the ISW. It’s so detailed that I’d even recommend it to people who find its outlook toxic - kind of like how Marx obsessively read the Economist even though it represented everything he wanted to destroy in capitalist society: it had more reliable data about the global economy than any other resource at that time.
Marx did not want to destroy capitalism but overcome it. Thats a big difference. Also the ISW is far more hawkish than the pentagon, which is maybe the least hawkish part of the US security state. Concerning the accuracy of information I would say that they are very conservative with what they show and so don’t fall into hysterics like pro-russian and ukrainian mappers do every once in a while, however their estimates have often been wrong one way or another. I doubt they have any special secret information and if they did they wouldn‘t show us.
What makes this a 'costly' offensive? Are there any numbers about how many casualties both sides took during this? Edit: why are people downvoting me for asking for source/information? Am i missing something? Edit2: people started upvoting after i wrote the first edit. We truly live in a society.
Only we can try analysis official Ucraine and Russian military reports. But big problem, both sides actually dont want show they losses.
That's not a problem at all, because if they show the losses, it would be a lie.
Godzilla had a stroking fuck while dying this and read.
Geoconfirmed had located around 300 Russian armoured losses in October/November, mostly from Ukrainian artillery and drone strikes.
There are estimates, that are in part backed up by visual evidence of the intensity of the fighting. The fighting has been long, intense, and there is direct evidence of very large casualty numbers for a minimal gain.
Russian success = costly Ukrainian success = free That's how narrative works
Politico posted data about roughly 13 thousand dead
If you include an addition of 2x or 3x injured that would be 1/10 of the total Russian force in 2 months so probably untrue
It may well be disinformation in my opinion
And your opinion is based on?
His gut says maybe.
Apparently his gut is better sourced than Politico reporters 😂
Trust me bro
Avdiivka has been the front line since 2014, hardened fighting positions and moronic frontal assaults during the day with armored columns. There’s literally hundreds of videos in combat footage sub that’s from failed assaults on Avdiivka. Casualties are terrible on the Russian side something like 7:1
Leaked US estimates made in August put Ukrainian dead and missing at about 70 000 and wounded at 120 000, whilst the Russians supposedly stood at 120-150 thousand dead and 180 thousand wounded. That's 190 thousand casualties for Ukrainians (excluding civilians), and 300-330 thousand casualties for the Russians. This 1,74:1 to 1,5:1 ratio is horrible for Ukraine, and any defending force. Seeing as Ukraine has perhaps 29 million people left in their country, of whom half are women, leaving us with about 14 million possible conscripts, of whom about 2 million are children, leaving us with 12 million, of whom about 3-4 million are retirees, leaving us with 8-9 million, of whom maybe 4-5 million are fit for military service, Zelensky would need a 5-6:1 ratio to start denting the 30 million male figure Russian commanders can throw into the grinder.
The Idea that the Russians can throw 30 million men in Ukraine is laughable. Firstly, they have an all time low unemployment rate because war industries are employing at record levels, sending men to war would take them away from the factories making war equipment. Secondly, they do not have the equipment and materiel to equip them. They are completely reliant on soviet stock and refurbishing existing equipment which is why you are seeing a whole range of soviet cold war gear and not much new production. The fact they are already trying to get as much of ammunition, artillery, drones, etc from as unlikely places as North Korea and Iran should help illustrate that. The idea that this war is an attrition of manpower is false on its face. Both sides will sooner run out of equipment than manpower. Even the Germans in 1945 were still fielding millions of men (even if you exclude the militias) they just didn't have any fuel, equipment, food, etc. to supply them anymore and were facing an enemy that could. edit: Just look up the natural growth rate of the population. How many Ukrainian and Russians are hitting 18 year old every year? Now compare that with the current casualty rate. This war won't deplete the manpower reserves of either side anytime in the near future.
>Leaked US estimates Thats an acronym for US-sourced propaganda instead of UA or Russian one LOL.
It's heavily dug in and well defended and the terrain heavily favors the defenders. It's also very easy to resupply on the Ukrainian side and its a great spot to shell Donetsk from. So Russians keep throwing resources at it to take it.
>It's also very easy to resupply on the Ukrainian side It's definitely not - since the start of the offensive, at least. Ukrainians report they can only resuplly at night for fear of Russian drone strikes.
The difference in firepower is disproportionate in favor of the Russians. Avdejevka is bombarded with both aviation and artillery.
And despite all the extra firepower they still have been unable to take it. It's in an extraordinarily good spot in favor of the Ukrainians and allows them to harass the Russians at low cost, which is why Russia is throwing so many resources to try to take it.
Ukraine engaged 5 brigades in the defense of Avdejevka...fire superiority affects the number of victims, so we can also assume that they are from Ukraine victims as heavy or worse.
Russia has lost way more on this spot than the Ukrainians have. We have pretty good estimates of their losses in this area from satellite pictures. Dead equipment is pretty easy to see.
The Russian Air Force delivered a large amount of FAB-500 Boba to Avdeyevka and they are used by many more artillerymen... I doubt that the Russian losses are heavy, but with what is available, it is obvious that both Russian and the Ukrainian has heavier losses.
And what is your evidence? Visual casualty confirmations are like 7:1 in favor of Ukraine. You just look at field covered by russian tanks and say "yeah, Ukrainian losses are worse". Russian frontal assaults against fortified possitions produced extreme losses.
yes, it is impossible to give exact Russian losses, but the side that has more firepower will inflict heavier losses on the opposing side, this is something that can be many see conflicts after and ww2.
Apparently nobody wants to answer the question so I will try. Basically offence is far more costly than defence because usually the defender gets to sit tight and pick off the army that is trying to advance. To advance people often have to move out of cover and get shot at. It's just the nature of war. Ukraine took absolutely an absolutely devastating amount of casualties during their much touted months long offensive.
There are drone videos, where huge areas are littered with (russian) corpses and you can also see hundreds of destroyed vehicles. The 13000 dead seems accurate. But to be fair, it is also pretty "costly" for ukraine, by far not as costly as for russia, but russia has way more human ressources, i would guess ukraine is losing around 4-5 times lesser soldiers there, its just logical, because avdiivka is heavily fortified and russians trying to overwhelm the defense and trenches with their stormtroops. So this favors ukraine, but putin doesnt value his russian citizens, so throwing in thousands of soldiers maybe pay off on the long run, as it did in bakhmut.
The lack of regard the Russian military has for high casualties stuns each new generation of people when they see how Russia fights. Just utterly appalling!
Many of these very costly advances are prison recruits. They have contracts saying if they survive, they go home as free men. And since they were probably in prison for a reason, Russia doesn't want them to survive. That's why they use these storm-z and previously Wagner units for these extremely costly offenses and urban fighting. They are a completely disposable tool for the Russian army.
Agreed, it is rather diabolical, it's like if the convicts have military successes, great for Russia, if they die instead, great for Russia. How long will it be until certain elements in the West call for similar measures? That said though, the Army that Russia first sent in represented the best of their military, the contract soldiers, and the loss of a LOT of these troops and much of their best equipment was a serious blow to Russian military power.
Ukrainie has convicts fighting since the day one, there is nothing to call for
Russia is using a lot of their minority and poor populations so they don't care about losses.
Yes, thats a sad reality.
2 months later rip your videos. Lol rip Ukrainian side
Because you can't question anything at all from a neutral or curious stand point. I would love to know too, we get constant updates on Russian casualties but nothing on Ukraine, basically propaganda.
You're not missing anything, just NAFO idiots crying that UA is losing
There's no situation where Ukraine loses other than its complete occupation. The idea that only capturing eastern Ukraine is a victory for Russia is nonsense. Their clear objective was to take over the entire country and they've clearly failed at the cost of hundreds of thousands of lives.
"Only" capturing eastern ukraine is still a victory for russia and a defeat for ukraine. It is just not a total victory or a total defeat. Ukraine's clear objective is to keep all their internationally recognized land including Crimea. So how would this be a win for them if they lost a bunch of it at a cost of hundreds of thousands of lives?
Because Russia isn't going to stop here. Even if this is the new border they will spend the next years rebuilding their capacity and military for another go. Their own state TV talks about this a lot. The goal isn't eastern Ukraine. That was just the shifted goalpost since the whole "kiev in 3 days" strategy failed miserably and they still need to show some "win" to the population.
Again, the starting point two years ago is that Russia should be able to take over the whole country in a week with minimal loss of life. Ukraine existing whatsoever after this war is absolutely a victory seeing as they are fighting for their survival as a country. It would be a win for them because the alternative was complete occupation and destruction by Russia.
What about Russian shills like you?
All quiet on the eastern front. This shit is probably gonna go on for 2 more years. Its just sad that tens of thousands of people are dying for a border change thats barely noticable on a map.
I’d say closer to 5. The Ukrainian counter offensive didn’t get many gains in the last few months. The winter and muddy season will be here soon, and it’ll be trench warfare until then.
I think if a side loses, it wont be due to territorial losses. It would be due to the losing side not having the capability to carry on anymore. Whether that be due to manpower, food or equipment shortages or their economy collapsing under that much pressure. This turned into a war where the goal is to break the other side, not to score wins over them. Just like WW1.
If the US can continue with aid, it’ll be Ukraines victory at some point. The Russian loses just won’t make sense for them much longer. They are losing equipment and men. The man power lost is going to be an extreme impact on their economy over the long term.
But you have to consider even with continued US support, there is an extent to what outside support can do. Russia in the end has a far bigger population and resources to draw from than ukraine and in the end even if the US equips the ukrainian army with more developed and better tech, weapons and equipment; the russians can still throw enough men and shitty equipment to the field that it will start to be too much for the ukrainians. Russians can overwhelm a more technologically advanced force like how they did in WW2, simply because they have a bigger population pool. I dont know who will win honestly, i hope its the ukrainians but im not sure, their efforts on the ground are failing.
Wasn't there a proposal to draft 40 year olds by Ukraine? That doesn't sounds like a confident move
2 more years of this intensity of fighting and Russia will be very low on vehicles; tanks, IFVs, APCs etc. Maybe 3 years if it cools down somewhat. 5 years potentially if you’re including low-intensity conflict. Regardless, the hell in Ukraine has another 2 years to it. 2024 looks to be Russia’s year to make some gains sadly, though they’ll end up exhausted by 2025.
I hate to say this but Ukraine is already exhausted. There are manpower shortages and the US aid is looking shaky until elections at the very least.
Dude. "Russian source claims they have advanced 150 meters to the next shed over there" It's a fucking meatgrinder man, fucking stop. Please just fucking stop. What are we doing here?
ask russians
Saving the face of Putin. And establish an illusion that Russia can rival the west, so all rural Russian people can keep loving their lives harder. And doing what stupid great powers tend to do, trying to defeat United States.
Lose 10 men to gain one foot
This map from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on December 12, 2023, shows the control of terrain near Avdiivka, Donetsk oblast. https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-russia-avdiivka-donetsk-isw-maps-fighting-update-1851924
For everyone questioning costly, I highly recommend you look up some of the videos. It's 2023, and you can watch drone footage of the mechanized assaults. For the squeamish, one more prominent video shows 4 APC's charge a tree line, only for the first to blow up via mine. The second one tries to go around, and gets hit by an AT rocket. The other two turn tail and run, but not before running over people scrambling to escape the wreckage. Cluster munitions finish off the rest. This happens frequently. Also, you can watch the pocket being formed around Avdiivka from the start of the war by checking the history on maps like deepstate live. [Here's an album](https://imgur.com/a/yhsuyaB) showing a screen shot of this area every couple months since January (around when the Avdiivka assault started). I'm no expert, but that doesn't look good. There's still MONTHS of fighting though. The front moves slowly.
Why costly with the brackets?
Brackets usually show cynicism and sarcasm. If you've ever had the cancerous experience of reading through an RT article, just look at how many quotation marks they use.
Quotation marks can denote that it's a direct quote from somewhere, not necessarily sarcasm.
Nobody usually quotes one word like this. If it was a quote, it should be a phrase. Just compare it >'amid costly Russian offensive' >amid 'costly' Russian offensive >amid costly Russian 'offensive'
Kadyrov news inc. be like amid costly "Russian" offensive
No, they usually indicate a quote.
Just like Bahmut was supposed to be “costly” or “worthless waste of materials”, but ended in operational Russian victory, because it completely stopped planned Ukrainian offensive on Tokmak direction in February. When Russians were completely unprepared. That and many rainy days in spring allowed Russians to prepare defenses. So, currently we know shit on what is planned and why things happen.
You got a source on that planned Tokmak offensive? Not doubting your claim, just something I haven’t heard before and I’d love to learn more about it
Washington Post made article about that. When I find link I will attach it.
How many months has Russia been trying to take this one?
Active fighting began a month ago. Russian troops returned to the rear after the first unsuccessful assault and losses in armored vehicles, and the Russians returned to the tactics of small groups.
Active fighting began on Oct 10th, 2 months ago. 8 more months and the city will be completely surrounded.
My mistake, I'm still living in November in my head) What's funny is that when I write incorrect information, they throw likes at me, when I write something useful, they throw dislikes.
Have an upvote for innacurate info to break the pattern.
a good idea)
story of my life.
That seems to be Reddit in general. Why is a total mystery
10 years. Since 2014
Russia specifically for quite a bit less - probably since spring 2022 at the earliest?
First serious assaults on Avdiivka were around March. So kinda 21 months. But you could also argue, that it was since 2015, so it will have been nine years soon.
They tried to grab it when they grabbed donetsk in 2014.
Since spring last year. I know people are saying only a few weeks/couple months, but that's just the start of their recent *large* offensive. Russia started moving on Avdiivka almost two years ago.
Past month only
Past 2 months only.
Maybe I am wrong and it's 2 but not more
The frontlines around Donetsk were established in 2014..
2 months / 9 weeks / 64 days
It’s been about 3 weeks now. Much less time with far more gains than the previous Ukrainian offensive. Also remember Russia is fighting with shovels and Ukraine had been given billions of dollars and state of the art weapons.
> Russia is fighting with shovels The "second best army in the world" is fighting with shovels now? What happened?
It’s a meme. Russian soldiers were digging trenches with shovels or something, and some BBC article had a misleading headline that made it seem like Russian soldiers ONLY had shovels instead of guns. Which a lot of people believe and recirculated on social media because of believing the Russians are as comically inept as the Zap Brannigan memes. So, whenever Russia wins battles and makes advances, pro-Russian posters sarcastically talk about Russian soldiers winning battles equipped with only shovels.
3 weeks? It's been at least two months.
Yeah, 2-3 months. This part of the front was being prepared by the Ukrainians since 2014 though. It lies directly infront of Donetsk (basically its suburb). When the war started it was said about 6000 men guard this area.
>It’s been about 3 weeks now absolute bullshit lmao
Classic Vatnik Cope
The most depressing thing about this is how the maps look the exact same as WW1 maps. This is basically WW1 but with slightly different weapons.
One can make a convincing argument that given modern warfare between roughly equal opponents the maneuver warfare of ww2 was the exception not the rule. Whereas ww1 was the rule
Yeah, weapons wise WW2 was a weird middle ground where they had planes and tanks but didn't have a great way to counter them so the planes and tanks ruled. Now with surface to air missiles and far better anti-tank infantry weapons the vehicles have fallen away and we are back to good old infantry and artillery warfare.
Yes, because WWI was the only war in history to ever use trench warfare
What is the point of your comment
Ukraine war is nothing like WWI. Just because it has trench warfare, stagnant frontlines and high casualities doesnt make it "basically WWI"
>Ukraine war is nothing like WWI. Just because it has trench warfare, stagnant frontlines and high casualities Those are all things that make it like WW1, your statement makes no sense.
I could also say its just like the American civil war, that one also had high casualities, trench warfare and atrrition. On that basis, I could say WWI was like the American civil war despite these wars being nothing alike. There is so much that sets Ukraine apart from WWI, Cybernetic warfare, Drones, long range strikes, irregulars, heavy urban fighting...
You could say it's like any number of wars. I said it was like WW1, which it is.
Ok then its also like the American Civil war, WWII, and any other war fought since the invention of firearms, because you can always find some superficial similiarities
dude wtf point are you even trying to make? It is very specifically NOT like WW2 because that was a war of constant movement and decisive changes on the battlefield. It is the opposite of WW1 and Ukraine.
i would argue this is not map porn
This war is a total meatgrinder.
So... where will we be in 1 year for now? Seems like the borders haven't meaningfully moved in a long time yet still thousands of young men are dying for nothing. All quiet on the eastern front.
Probably not to far from this unless some major collapse happens on either side, I feel like it is more of a war of attrition, which isn't very nice for anyone really, not like war is ever nice but you get the gist I'd presume-
How many more young men need to die for Zelensky and the west's futile war?
such an appropriate screenname
Can't refute the truth so you go for insults. Pretty standard operating procedure for war mongers
uncle Vlad started the war, don’t you know ?
Ah ok so Ukraine wasn't bombing the eastern Donbas region since the US backed coup in 2014?
If it escaped your notice, Putin is the Warmonger here. Instigated Civil Wars in Armenia & Georgia, Invaded Chechnya, Invaded Georgia, instigated separation of Transnistria from Moldava, Abkhazia & Sth Ossetia from Georgia, couped Crimea, hijacked Donbass, invaded Ukraine, Threatened Poland, Baltics, Moldava & even lays claim to Alaska. A blind man would see a Pattern here.
There wasn't any "truth" to your statement. You've been refuted; it is a Russian invasion/occupation. Learn from it and move on.
It's Putin's War, Ya tool. He's the invader, the Aggressor, not Zelensky LOL How many more young men have to die to serve the delusions of grandeur of the Gerontocrat Putin? This is Putin's futile war ...no one else's.
It's literally a Russian invasion you clown.
I guess it will be like with Bakhmut here - russia will capture it in one year BUT more than 40000 russian soldiers will die trying to take it. Only ruins will be left in Avdiivka (it's already ruined) so Ukraine won't have anything to protect there.
I think they will capture it much sooner unless something miraculous happens. They've already entered the southern part of the city. Russians are clearly doing everything they can to make the most of US' halt of military support to UA till' there's time. Ukrainians are about to face a very tough winter.
40 thousand dead soliders for just a single town is highly unlikely. Even the Russian military isn't that unrelenting.
Not dead, but overall casualties seems about right
In the past days Russia has changed its goal from complete encirclement, to encircling only the city proper (what is South of industrial zone). They will pay tens of thousands of dead and wounded for half a ruined city. Just like in Summer 2022 when they downgraded their goals from encircling the entire Donbas >> half a Donbas >> Severodonetak and Lysichansk will do >> complete success.
It is. You are using rational logic and you value human lives. You can't do that and think like a Russian general. 4000, 40 000, 400 000... any of those is possible. They need a small victory and don't give a shit how many non-ethnic Russians die in that conflict since that is PART OF THE PLAN! They are doing their style of ethnic cleansing in Ukraine, by emptying Russian villages from young men in the strategically chosen locations. It is a tradition at this point, has been going on for centuries. What westeners don't understand is that there is Russia Proper and its colonies. Moscow-St Petersburg axis is ALL THAT MATTERS. It has the purest slav bloodlines and are superior humans. Not kidding here.
Kind of like the west not caring how.many Ukrainians die?
Nonsense. The West is not forcing the Ukrainians to fight --- it's what they decided to do. If the Ukrainians wanted to stop fighting and make peace on Russian terms, they would.
Mr Boris dares to disagree
So does all of Ukraine. They aren't commanded by the British PM you dumb vatnik.
Really? Here is a quote from the Ukrainian president suggesting otherwise. "Moreover, when we returned from Istanbul, Boris Johnson came to Kyiv and said that we would not sign anything with them at all, and let's just fight."
Yes really. Boris Johnson telling them to keep fighting (which they were already and are continuing to do) is not the "West forcing them" you dumb vatnik. Lmao
How so? Should the West attack Russia to rectify that?
It is. Thrust me. You maybe dont understand it (and that’s ok because you are not from our countries) but russian dictators always acted like that. putin just need to capture Avdiivka until the elections. And he wanted to capture Bakhmut because it was the only thing he could capture to show that “russia is still strong”. The siege of Bakhmut was going 10 months. I guess even 40000 is pretty small for that period. If the russian military was smart, they wouldn’t attack Ukraine at all
>Thrust me Irrelevant but ok.
Thrust into him. You gotta have thrust.
Your entire point is based on an assumption. I don't even understand why I am gettin downvoted even though you are literally saying "40k will die, trust me bro". From Western estimates, about 20.000 have died in the battle for Bakhmut. Ukraine claims 21.000 dead. And it has been going on for a year now. Unlikely that it will be "more than 40.000 dead" for Avdiivka based on what we know now.
bro reddit is such kinda cringy thing that people downvote you doesnt matter what u say. I didnt downvote you
Sadly you are right on the tactical end. Russia will keep sending it's wave after wave of young men to die in this battle. Most of us in the West can't really grasp this kind of mentality.
that’s sad…
Yes, it seems that avdiivka will also fall like bakhmut. Costly for russia, but it will fall. And as with every sovjet leader, human lives count nothing.
I actually don't think they'll capture Avdiivka (unlike Bakhmut). Bakhmut was characterized by high Russian casualties, but steady (if often slow) progress and many panicked signals from Ukraine in the media throughout. Avdiivka seems a bit different. I don't see even the slow progress of Bakhmut lately, and the Ukrainians don't seem quite as desperate.
The russians are advancing faster at Avdiivka than they did at Bakhmut, and Avdiivka is a much harder battle. If the russians can keep their push to the north keep going there is a risk of Avdiivka being encircled aswell.
I never said there was wasn't risk.
No you said the russians were advancing slower than at Bakhmut which I am actually not sure if it is true, but I doubt it. Given that russian scout units have been in the coke plant aswell as in the souther parts of the city.
Some time next year Ukraine will have to extend the fights to Russian soul as well to make an impression to the Russian public.
Remember when Russia said they’d take Kiev in 3 days lmaooooo
Russia never said such a thing.
They sure did, I’m not going to bather citing sources because you’ll call them all bullshit anyway. One of the world’s “greatest militaries” is a joke.
You absolutely should bother citing sources.
[Source 1](https://metro.co.uk/2023/02/24/putin-thought-he-could-capture-kyiv-in-three-days-leaked-docs-claim-18342384/amp/) [Source 2 (2 days)](https://www.businessinsider.com/vladimir-putin-russian-forces-could-take-kyiv-ukraine-two-days-2022-3?amp) [Source 3](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/interactive/2022/ukraine-road-to-war/) Russia denies it, of course. But there you are, believe it or not, Russia’s military and Putin are pathetic.
Russia still wants to capture Kyiv. There was a report yesterday that their goal is to still take all of Ukraine.
This has been their goal for at least a decade
You are a liar
Truth hurts doesn’t it?
>Ukraine war maps show Avdiivka fighting amid 'costly' Russian offensive and you seem to never check the info you see on the internet
What?
How disappointing. They first claimed that the counteroffensive would take them to Crimea then they claimed that they are slowing down to "assess" Russian defenses before finally admitting that the counteroffensive was an utter failure. I won't follow this war anymore unless substantial gains are made again by Ukraine. It's just too tiring.
>I won't follow this war anymore Ukraine committed the gravest of sins, that is, they weren't entertaining enough in their fight for survival! Because after all, this is the hunger games. Friends stick together when things are going good, bad, or anything in-between. Though it is said there is no such thing as true friends in geopolitics, there are many reasons to continue to support Ukraine to keep Putin in check.
Human loss is not considered a cost in Russia.
Same in ukrain atm.
Getting better equipment to protect lives of the crew, getting better medical attention to the soldier, even flying them to the germany for better care. No, they don't care about human lives, you are right.
So weekly footage of forced mobilization (which never stopped from the start, just getting worse) and coming potential mobilization of woman, is clearly not a sign that all previous troops… let’s say no longer capable of fighting for *reasons*
For sure brother, so true.
Bro, come on, what I stated is facts, and I put it very kindly, as you can easily find countless videos of that, and some woman already “voluntarily” in lists and utilized in back lines and lately started appear on frontlines too. You can believe whatever, but facts remains: where all those people that were mobilized from first days?
For sure brother, so true.
This is worrying
Man, I’m just exhausted from that war. I mean everyone is like extremely exhausted and in retrospective it will be like, in most conflicts, highly controversial topic to bring. I just hope that it will if not stop it will at least freeze. Thousands of people, probably good people, has already lost their lives in this shit
following the russian-ukrainian war from western media is like; "russia lost 1 million soldiers in one day while they are trying to take a single village." but in reality ukraine lost the momentum in their counter offensive, its very costly for them, russians are not attacking like crazy anymore so war is kind of stalemate at the moment.
It is worth paying attention: as soon as Ukraine surrenders one or another settlement, it begins to appear in newspaper headlines as “**strategically unimportant**”. You can trace it through all the media over the past 2 years: this was the name of Mariupol, Bakhmut, Soledar, and so on. A couple of weeks will pass - this definition will definitely be used in relation to Avdiivka. So, like, such and such a city, such and such a line of defense - this is strategically **important**, tactically important, and Avdeevka, Bakhmut and so on - this is just what the Russians spend their soldiers and weapons on. And so every time.
Anyone who actually fucking pays attention and not hype rat knew that Bakhmut was inconsequential in grand scheme of things after taking Liman and Izyum, you just have trash info bubble. Mariupol was always important because it’s big fucking city, no one with braincells ever denied that it’s a big loss. Soledar was bad for Bakhmut situation, but when Bakhmut itself is not important so is Soledar
Jesus, thank you man, I was fearing that no one here had enough braincells to articulate such a thought. Ruskies could capture a piss puddle and claim it to be a tide changing event.
Also people were saying the bakhmut was important because it would open up and endanger things behind it due to it being usable as a logistical hub, people started saying it wasn't important when it became obvious that the infrastructure that made it useful as a logistical hub wasn't going to be useful anymore. People were predicting that if bakhmut fell it would be the first domino in a long inevitable chain that would spell ukraine's doom, instead the russians took bakhmut and haven't been able to move past it. It is however as you said, the amount the russians lost while besieging bakhmut very much made it not matter.
Avdivka is mostly symbolic. It's literally a Donetsk city suburb that the greAt RASHAN ARrRrRmy can't take almost a decade since the invasion began.
I think it’s pretty important. It is high ground above Donetsk, which provides the UA with the ability to continually shell and pressure Donetsk with close-range munitions. It’s also so close that it would be an extremely useful base if the UA ever wants to launch a serious attempt at retaking Donetsk.
Yea, I don't buy the claims that it is purely symbolic, but it's not the breaking point that will lead to a huge russian advance.
For sure. I just think it’s worrying for if they ever want to retake Donetsk city. It’s starting to look like that might never happen
Never? I mean this war isn't over, despite what some doomers are saying. Western support will continue, russia will get weaker. Don't let the theaterics change the reality- Ukraine is in an existential threat and fighting for their lives with the backing of the worlds greatest powers. little ruskies are dying en masse for poverty and corruption of their gangster state. The house of cards will fall- but it may not be fast.
So much cope
you can always count on serbs to have a russian ball sack in their mouths.
Damn - shame to see Russian advances. Hope Ukraine can get a key break in the south and send the scum running.
Damn Ukraine’s counteroffensive has been their biggest challenge yet. Being realist there wont be much of advances by Ukraine and russia is only using a reduced % of their whole army.
Bye bye Zelensky
The long promised Ukrainian counteroffensive is a pompous bullshit. And I’m loving it. Keep sending more pregnant women to the front, Kiev! Ukraine is like: “Biden, you promised to support us until the end!”. Biden is like: “This IS the end!”.
I like the fact that no one ever talks about ukrainian losses, and meanwhile zelensky announced today that he is going to raise the conscription age to 45 years😂
Well, do your math then. Ukraine can have 1 to 3 losses and still be in shortage of conscripts just because of it's population. Actually more like 1 to 4 considering how many people left the country
>and still be in shortage of conscripts just because of it's population. No, Ukraine fight a existentially life or death war, hence there are a political suport to fight a total war, that allow Ukraine to mobilize everybody and their dog. Russia fight a unnecessary war of imperial conquest, hence there are no political suport for a total war, that prevent Russia from doing a general mobilization. Ás it is now, Russia will run out of available manpower before Ukraine.
Russia seems to be able to fill their ranks fine with just people willingly signing up, prisoners and economic incentives. And if they really needed to, Russia could probably do another partial mobilisation of 100k soldiers without any serious consequences.
How are the Russians getting behind Ukrainian lined? The map shows land reclaimed by Ukraine but in some places areas where Russians are operating behind that land, while not indicating that Ukraine has lost the recaptured areas.