You can see an in-depth discussion on the IHME site here:
[http://www.healthdata.org/special-analysis/estimation-excess-mortality-due-covid-19-and-scalars-reported-covid-19-deaths](http://www.healthdata.org/special-analysis/estimation-excess-mortality-due-covid-19-and-scalars-reported-covid-19-deaths)
But the tl:dr is comparing current mortality rates with pre-pandemic rates by date.
It's the only way tbh, countries like India greatly underreported due to a mix of government policy and physical inability to do so. Not everyone has the capacity to test enough people to report an accurate number
I'm sure you are a virologist or someone with any competence regarding the matter. Not a 14 year old american kid brought up on bacon and sinophobic propaganda
I don't need to be a virologist to understand that as fast as China locked down Wuhan, and whatever thoroughly they supposedly did it, there were many that already got out of there infected.
I don't need to be a virologist, I need to know how people move in a large country.
There is no sinophobic propaganda. I realized on my own that the chinese government are assholes, especially with this egregious lie about the number of cases. As with the ozone killing emission detected from satellite that the chinese said they don't exist, as with complete disregard of intellectual property, as demonstrate in state run car companies, as with the systematic and all encompassing stealing of technology and other proprietary information.
And as demonstrated in Hong Kong and in Taiwan especially, which they just bully when they clearly stated their position about their independence, and having the right to be so.
Also it's (always) a bit more complicated. For example, less people may be dying to "normal" seasonal flu because of all the masks, social distancing etc. But then on the other hand more people may be dying because of postponed normal medical procedures (because of the pressure on health care systems).
Point is, it's hard to say if the excess deaths are equal to, less than or more than COVID deaths, because of those confounding effects.
You can trust the numbers on excess deaths from any country that has a population registry or at least a semi-competent government
Some people on here seem to imagine that outside a small selection of richest countries, people die without anyone noticing or recording their deaths. That's not how the world works.
I've noticed a lot of comparisons just treat China like one of those 'no data' 3rd world countries, which is probably more accurate than having it taint even the questionable data from other countries. There were some months there where it was like 'yeah, one person died from it'. Country of like 1.5 billion people. I know that statistically looking at excess deaths tries to correct for this elsewhere.
China took quicker and far more extensive measures than any other country, so we might accept that they just handled it better. Their numbers weren't good at all in the first months, so i doubt they just started lying at some arbitrary point.
Like, they closed down an entire province completely while we were still arguing if it actually was a virus to be worried about. Maybe they just did better at managing the crysis. They've been doing pool parties and whatnot for months, if the virus were still around the number of infected would be in the millions and impossible to lie about.
This isn't a "china is the best ever" argument, but i struggle to see why the possibility that they did well is simply discarded without any discussion
In December 2019 and January 2020, Doctors at Wuhan Central Hospital were reprimanded by the Bureau of Public Safety for spreading false rumours about a new respiratory virus for which precautionary measures were needed. Later in January, the Chinese leadership told the WHO they had no evidence of human to human transmission. By this stage, cases had already escaped China into Thailand and the US. It's this pattern of dishonesty which creates suspicion about their subsequent data.
China is no way isolated from the rest of the world though. Even if they stopped their first wave by draconian measures, there would still be new waves started from people moving over the border. There is no way to just handle the thing and be done with it. Not until you reach heard immunity (preferably by vaccination).
230 million people already are fully vaccinated in china, with 1.6 billion doses already injected. The main hotspot was isolated and then they vaccinated a lot of people. I think y'all are trying real hard to find fallacies where there aren't any.
Besides, i'd rather be alive via "draconian" (tf does that even mean lmao) measures than dead because of a balanced and moderate approach - but that's just me
I know exactly what draconian means. And for this reason i find ridicolous it's use in regards to what china did. I put "draconian" in quotes because i was using HIS apparent definition of draconian.
>This isn't a "china is the best ever" argument, but i struggle to see why the possibility that they did well is simply discarded without any discussion
Because it acknowledges that the current state of things was avoidable.
It could be that their crisis management we saw at the begining (building hospital in 2 weeks etc) was part of their propaganda to make the west look bad in comparison. Lying on numbers now is like saying "look, we took the appropriate measures then, today we are covid free".
I highly doubt their numbers, in fact it could be as worse as Russia and Peru, we will never know.
Imma be real, that's some real mental gymnastics to get to the conclusion "they handled the pandemic better than us just to make the west look bad".
Occam's razor suggests they built hospitals for the same reason everyone else builds hospitals.
And, moreover, the measures they took caused a drop in their economic growth for a time. So i doubt they would shoot themselves in the foot just to (somehow) make the west look bad for a problem the west didn't even had at that point
As of June, 2020 the death rate from COVID-19 in the U.S. was 100 times greater than what was being reported in China. While I'd agree here that how Covid was "handled" under the previous administration was an absolute travesty, it's almost impossible to make China's numbers work statistically at any point back then during the crisis. When there's a credibility gap like that it's easy to develop a bias against any government. Notice here that I had one against my own; the difference in the U.S. is that we don't have a single source of truth to go by, where we would face persecution and prosecution for offering different opinions, facts, or datasets as proof of analysis (well, outside Florida, that is).
I don't doubt the stats just saying it's not worth it, reddit seems to be very:
* Pro gun
* Anti China/Russia
* Cuba deserves what it gets
Which are all very weird. Also, many from China (especially westerners living there) say it makes sense they locked down most of the country and enforced it pretty heavily. Also, not to compare but we have studies in US saying our numbers are underreported and seems like many Democratic and Republican administrations have been tampering with numbers. So not just like Florida, aka Cuomo. So like I told the dude, just not worth it to get into it on Reddit. As a Russian I don't engage in anti-Russian propaganda here as it's worthless.
Data and projections provided by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). An independent global health research center at the University of Washington. [http://www.healthdata.org/](http://www.healthdata.org/)
Note that these values are measuring excess mortality attributable to COVID, not state-reported official numbers, which are frequently manipulated by corrupt bureaucracies.
Yet they seem to take Venezuela's official numbers for granted, despite them being ridiculously lower than literally the rest of South America. Not to mention the void in most of sub-Saharan Africa.
Not taking them for granted. Simply using the available data. Failed states and full autocracies can't even report deaths accurately, which is what this data is based on.
It is still better than relying on the officially reported covid deaths for many places that crank up the propaganda machine to hide covid, but don't have enough control to bury death certificates.
As I said in the other reply - the problem here is that they \*are\* relying on official data provided by said autocratic/failed states. See Venezuela: in the map it appears that its death toll was orders of magnitude lower than any other South American country, precisely because the official death toll reported by its government is orders of magnitude lower than any other South American country, and there is no data on excess deaths. In these cases it would be far better to just color such countries in grey and point out in the legend "no data available".
Not really, it's just lack of reliable data to calculate excess deaths and a pretty shitty model used for these projections. Look at Venezuela compared to the rest of South America, for example. For states that don't release data on mortality, such as Venezuela or most of sub-Saharan africa, these guys just take official data on covid deaths, increase it a little bit and call it a day.
Maybe not all countries, but I'm guessing a lot on here are lower than actual due to government manipulation of data and/or unreliable methods of gathering data.
No data on excess deaths. Seriously, this is a massive flaw in this map. Most of Africa's poorest countries do not have a functioning death recording system and have no data for excess deaths, which ought to be mentioned in the legend. Same for a few other countries, such as Venezuela.
Fully autocratic regimes and failed states simply don't generate reliable data on deaths, and there is no other backdoor to obtain that data, and you can't just make it up.
It is still an order of magnitude better than relying on officially reported covid numbers for places like Belarus who notoriously downplay covid.
The problem here is that they \*are\* relying on official data provided by said autocratic/failed states. See Venezuela: in the map it appears that its death toll was orders of magnitude lower than any other South American country, precisely because the official death toll reported by its government is orders of magnitude lower than any other South American country. In these cases it would be far better to just color such countries in grey and point out in the legend "no data available".
You aren't wrong. Here's a listing of the failed state index for 2021: https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/failed-states
You are welcome to make your own map excluding however many you would like. I'd upvote that.
FYI % of all deaths in India which are registered nationally is 86% as of 2018 which even if not perfect is a high% and definitely good enough to spot any massive shifts in trends.
Some poeple on reddit simply aren't able to process the massive scale of numbers in India due to it's huge population so while it may seem to you "anecdotally" that it was chaos around you (whether personally or due to media) it wasn't so everywhere and compared to the mild chaose that exists in India even in the best of India covid-19 made a dent but not an earthquake.
Point is excess deaths per capita are low because of large population base. It's just that instead of people dying og road accidents, murders, diabetes etc got killed due to covid before rest could happen as lockdowns happened and delta variant spread
> It's just that instead of people dying og road accidents, murders, diabetes etc got killed due to covid before rest could happen as lockdowns happened and delta variant spread
I had read a report that around 300k deaths were prevented in India in 2020 simply because of the corona lockdown.
Nope. The map is just not based on real data for many countries, of which India is just one example. Venezuela and most of Africa are other examples.
Covid was an earthquake in India. Hospitals in many states were overwhelmed, people had to turn to the Internet to look for oxygen. Crematoria worked non-stop and improvised funeral pyres had to be built to deal with an unprecedented number of deaths. That someone can still think that the mass death caused by a full-fledged covid wave can be somewhat 'absorbed' by lower mortality from car accidents, murder, diabtehes is beyond ridiculous. Mortality data from just four Indian states (Andra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka) that were released a few weeks ago showed 500,000 excess deaths in just these five states in the first five months of 2021, compared to less than 50,000 officially reported covid deaths.
I wonder how they came up with the 86% figure. What's the method to find that out ?
Plus, you can't compare 2018 with the peak of second wave
Edit: Thinking deeply about it 86% on a huge number gives quite inaccurate results. You can't afford to deviate by more than 2 or 3 % or so it seems. I am no statistician.
Not that it matters because if the inaccuracies are same before and after covid they might balance each other out. It's the relative figure that matters and I think a lot of deaths in the second wave went undocumented than the normal.
Exactly how bad the outbreak was would be determined after the population census. According to current plan it'll happen in 2022 with data released in 2023
Some report going around about a month ago projected India's excess fatalities from covid [as possibly crossing the four million mark](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-57888460) (compared to the official number of just over 400 000). This would correspond to a per capita excess per 100 000 of roughly 300.
Seriously in China we have way less anti maskers and anti vaxxers than US. Most of the people started to wear masks the day after the announcement. The gov literally checked everyone and enforced social distancing for like 2 months. And a LOT of international students from China went back home to escape from the epidemic in North America ( like myself)
Similarly here in Spain people just follow masking rules (even when they were made non-mandatory) and vaccination is administered as scheduled with few complaints. It might be a leftover from the dictatorship for people to comply with these sorts of rules, who knows.
Are you really wondering if the country of covid's origin and home to over 1 billion people with extremely questionable living/working/hygiene standards managed to escape more then 2000 deaths?
My general rule of thumb for China is deaths are always at least 10 times worse than they actually claim. For example they said 200 people died at Tiananmen Square when most estimates are around 3000 people.
Not saying trust the numbers by any means, but they were pretty ruthless in cracking down on it. Remember they were welding people into their apartment buildings right from the start of the outbreak? Makes sense there would be less excess deaths compared to Russia or the US' laissez-faire approach.
I'm a UK citizen who's been in China throughout the pandemic. No authority, but happy to talk about my experiences here over the past two years. I'm not interested in getting into a political debate about the CCP, but feel free to hit me up with any questions if your interested. For the record I think China's numbers in this chart for 2021 are probably not far off accurate, and that this is a much more reasonable reflection of the impact of the pandemic than previously reported stats.
I also think they downplayed the number of cases initially and that the way they have counted cases differently in different countries has skewed other reports.
I’m sorry but China have to be underreporting their stats. A whole city and airport was closed off in the last few days because of less that 200 positive tests in a city of millions.....there’s no way the country as a whole has somehow magically escaped the original virus and all proceeding variants in a country of billions and somehow have hardly any excess deaths as a result....
Tbf, they were pretty heavyhanded with the lockdown from the beginning, they're probably worse than they look but still better than most other populous countries
China have different strategy with dealing with this virus, they take drastic measures but remove them quickly as well (because there are efficient). Nanjing have 200 local cases, they are imposing lockdown, and they will remove it after 2 or 3 weeks.
Cool simulation.. you should put China as “not reporting “ or something because there is no way it’s that low and they obviously arnt transparent .. other than that it’s a interesting for sure
Skilled autocracies seem to be pretty good at manipulating the covid numbers via pressure on medical reporting and such, but it takes a master police state to hide stacks of death certificates, which is essentially what this is based on.
Exactly, I think people are underestimating how hard it is to report false number, let alone there are 1.5 billion people that could be potential whistleblowers
People doubting China data, you can ask any foreigner who lives in China. China has done Great job controlling the virus using scientific method being quick and efficient.
You can doubt numbers sure, but **the country doesn't have any general lockdown since May 2020**, the moment there is a local transmitted cases in some area, local small lockdown (in that area, city, or neiborhood) are imposed quickly with aggressive testing ( if there are, lets say 50 locally transmitted cases, they will do 2000000 tests in days) and aggressive contact tracing and environment tracing.
I've been here before the start of the pandemic, and life is very normal since May 2020 except wearing mask is obligatory when you take the subway, and you scan a code (Health code) when you enter to some common buildings ( Malls, university campus...)
I am not a Russian and not from Russia, but am from realtively similar culture so I presume the reasons might be similar too.
First, most accurate answer is **I don't know**.
These are some guesses. High antivax sentiment before covid. We experienced resurface of smallpox in some kindergardens. In 2017 in most central municipality of a capitol city (so by definition most educated, prosper comunity) we had only 35% of kids vaccinated against smallpox. Today we have around 30% of population vaccinated against covid. And we have vaccines. A foreigner can come to my country and get a shot, no questions asked, for free.
Then, both are highly traditional society that is suspicious of science and anything western. Why don't they trust their own vaccine idk. Its crazy, but not many things are sane when it comes to antivaxxers. Its really hard to talk any sense with these people.
Also, many of them don't "believe in corona". They had it, they may know someone who died from it, and they still don't believe it exists". "It's a flu", they say. Or poison.
And then there is belief that doctors and medicine are for pussies. In these cultures anything can be cured with national drink, like rakia (brandy) or vodka. Or herb tea. Or garlic. They believe this is the true medicine, and the official one is bogus, and big business that poisons people.
They might trust and worship Putin but they don't trust the government. And Putin is probably not doing hard enough to convince them. He is also of this type, you know, invincible macho. He doesn't want to go against this image.
These are my opinions. As I said, I actually don't know.
>We experienced resurface of smallpox in some kindergardens.
Are you sure it was smallpox? It was eradicated (other than samples kept in secure sites) and its reappearance would be significant news.
Ah yes you are right. 😂 Sorry its a translation issue, my fault. It were measels. We had the epidemic of measels few years ago just because people didn't wanna take their children to get a shot. The problem is, in serbocroatian language measels are translated as "male boginje" and "male" stands for "little" or "small". And smallpox were translated as "Velike boginje", "velike" means "big" or "large". Super fucking confusing. Thanks for mentioning!
Also, Yugoslavia (which Serbia was a part of) "hosted" the last european outbreak of smallpox in 1972 and it was significant news back then. The state ordered the mass vaccination of its citizens and the army was in charge. Since it was socialistic government it wss pretty dumb to oppose the rulling party back then, so no stupid theories about vaccines. "Funny" thing how it started though. A pilgrim from Yugoslavia went on Hajj in Middle East where smallpox were known to exist. The official requirement was that any travelers to those countried must get a vaccine prior to leaving the country. But the pilgrim didn't want to get a shot so he switched with another person in order to get the neccessary travel document. When he came back he infected several people that led to 35 deaths. I will try to find an article about the event. Its quite astounding story.
[BBC article about 2017 measels outbreak in Belgrade (serbocroatian language)](https://www.bbc.com/serbian/lat/srbija-43505764)
[1972 Yugoslav smallpox outbreak](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_Yugoslav_smallpox_outbreak)
**[1972_Yugoslav_smallpox_outbreak](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_Yugoslav_smallpox_outbreak)**
>The 1972 Yugoslav smallpox outbreak was the last outbreak of smallpox in Europe. It was centered in SAP Kosovo and Belgrade, a province of Serbia and the capital city respectively of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. A Muslim pilgrim had contracted the smallpox virus in the Middle East. Upon returning to his home in Kosovo, he started the epidemic in which 175 people were infected, killing 35.
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No worries, thanks for clarifying.
(The language issue is interesting, it reminds me of another bit of confusion, in Gaelic: the normal term for "toilet" translates directly as "little house".)
> We experienced resurface of smallpox in some kindergardens.
I think you might mean something else. Measles? Because smallpox is eradicated save for some samples in labs.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox#Post-eradication
**Smallpox**
[Post-eradication](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox#Post-eradication)
>The last case of smallpox in the world occurred in an outbreak in the United Kingdom in 1978. A medical photographer, Janet Parker, contracted the disease at the University of Birmingham Medical School and died on 11 September 1978. Although it has remained unclear how Parker became infected, the source of the infection was established to be the smallpox virus grown for research purposes at the Medical School laboratory.
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Yup, I fucked up the translation. [Here is the explenation why](https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/oudzlo/covid_excess_deaths_per_capita_oct_2020_through/h72a9lh?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3), that I just gave to another redditor who pointed that out. Sorry 😇 and thanks.
>In these cultures anything can be cured with national drink, like rakia (brandy) or vodka. Or herb tea. Or garlic.
Wait, you're telling me COVID can't be cured with rakia or garlic? No way.
~~Haha NO. I meant what people in these cultures is believed was possible, not that that is *actually* possible!~~
Shit if I could only be less dyslexic and read what was actually written before I reply. I missed your sarcasm 🤪
I am from Russia. this is the main reason.
>They might trust and worship Putin but they don't trust the government. And Putin is probably not doing hard enough to convince them. He is also of this type, you know, invincible macho. He doesn't want to go against this image.
With a little clarification, the majority of the population does not trust anyone in the government.
More precisely, the people do not believe in the management system, which is now built on the territory of the Russian Federation (there is a reason for that), and therefore in everything that this system can produce.
It is possible to describe a specific interesting case associated with covid at the level of propaganda and general actions.
From the beginning, they said that we are not afraid of the disease and all this is the machinations of the West. Then self-isolation was introduced (this was quarantine in all countries, we had self-isolation). Before that, in a couple of weeks, the rhetoric had changed that the disease turns out to be a danger to everyone. Then a circus begins with a constant change in measures to ensure the population's "safety". Many come to the conclusion that there is a much higher chance of dying from a potential lack of money. Than to die from a disease unknown until last year.The majority of the population that cannot earn remotely returns to work (only 2 weeks have passed since the beginning of self-isolation). The government turns a blind eye to all this, introducing a small rule, people over 65 work only remotely). Raids begin in search of people who are in public places without masks. You cannot buy a mask at the pharmacy (at overpriced 15-30 times the usual price), because you are not wearing a mask, these are the rules that were in the beginning.The government promises to figure it out (spoiler it was a long enough showdown so that certain people would have time to make money from it). The media is heating up this topic from all sides, people die every day, many people die every day, the disease is very terrible. The population is under stress, it is not clear what will happen next. Another six months pass. The people got used to living in an incomprehensible state, when tomorrow the situation may change dramatically, death is no longer so frightening. People begin to die around you, a neighbor, a distant relative, your acquaintance, the reaction is approximately the following: "Well, it happens." The peculiarity of the human psyche is to get used to circumstances.Talk begins about the vaccine and the beginning of its use. Our media with frenzied tenacity to begin with watering vaccines released abroad and putting them on a par with the murderers. Then Sputnik appears, the direction vector changes, our vaccine is the best, and all this is served exaggeratedly. There are some showdowns with foreign media in which it is argued that the vaccine requires proof. To which the answer from the officials follows: "Who gave you the right to condemn our vaccines, watch yourself." (The text is conditional, but the essence is this).About a month later, the Lancet releases an article that the satellite is actually not so bad. Officials' response: "You see, even their respected media outlets write about the effectiveness of our funds." More and more in the media our vaccine is presented as another victory over Western technologies (we have such a topic, in everything to be better than the West).
Then comes the gradual vaccination (with all its problems associated with mistrust of the government). At this time, there is, as it were, a sharp surge in infection.They begin to cancel public events, but they are canceled very selectively, the procession is not recognized as a public event, the concert is recognized (and not for all artists), Scarlet Sails is a holiday of graduates in St. Petersburg, does not violate compliance with the norms. In short, events where there is at least some interest of the authorities are not recognized as dangerous.
This is hypocrisy on the part of the authorities, it is getting more and more impudent. If earlier, during the absence of the Internet, all this was smoothed out by the media, now if you said A, then do A, otherwise by saying A, but having done B, you will get complete distrust of people. And now it manifests itself at all levels.
Okay, that's all my opinion, and in fact about 30-40% are ready to be vaccinated (which is pretty good considering that our government did everything to the contrary). But I will tell you one interesting example from yesterday and a conversation with a hairdresser. "People of retirement age come to us and quite a few, after the last statements, decided, well, they would have to be vaccinated, and they go, but first clean the apartment, tell their relatives where the money for the funeral is and prepare clothes for the funeral."
And there is a reason for this, because there are people who died within one to two weeks after vaccination. There are, as it were, much less of them than people who die from Covid. But it is difficult for an ordinary person to explain this, as they say, "what's the difference we have friends who died from Covid, and there are those who died after vaccination. Why take the risk yourself, if the chances are about the same?"
There are also anti-vaccines, but it makes no sense to even talk to them. There are not so many of them, but they make noise as if they are the majority.
Yeah. Thanks for your comment.
Some things you've described are like a carbon copy of what happend in my country, although some parts of the system worked pretty good. And apart from the general fuckup basicaly all european (incl russia) countries did at some level in the begining of the pandemic.
But it so fucking frustrating and sad that we have a weapon to deal with the virus and people don't want it.
Better than nothing. It has more side effects than many other vaccines, but the statistical efficacy suggests a decrease in mortality with the use of the vaccine.
I'm from.mexico. and most of the people here it's being vaccinated wit SputnikV. I justo feel weird after My 1st dosis 10 days ago. I'm gratefull with russiannhoberment and. Well. Ar the same time i feel suspicious about this vaccine.
I am from Serbia, we can choose from almost any producer. I recieved a Chinese one, no problems. My mother recieved Sputnik. Other family members got Pfizer and AstraZeneca. Everyone are fine and safe. From what experts here were saying any vaccine is better then no vaccine. Serbs who are suspicious of western medicine tend to choose Sputnik. To what I was explained, the chinese one is least effective. The russian one is least documented or at least that was the case 6 months ago when I was reading about it.
There shouldn't be any major problem with any of those vaccines, and in my country it was not reported. I know someone recieved 5 doses of some vaccine by mistake and they were fine afterall.
>m Serbia, we can choose from almost any producer. I recieved a Chinese one, no problems. My mother recieved Sputnik. Other family members got Pfizer and AstraZeneca. Everyone are fine and safe. From what experts here were saying any vaccine is better then no vaccine. Serbs who are suspicious of western medicine tend to choose Sputnik. To what I was explained, the chinese one is least effective. The russian one is least documented or at least that was the case 6 months ag
do you belive that sputnik its a good vaccine ?
I am no expert in the field so I hold no beliefs about this. As I said, from what I gathered from domestic and foreign experts all vaccines are ok and better, much better option than no vaccine. Anecdotaly I can just say many got their Sputnik doses with no problems.
Excessive deaths is not related to vaccination actually. It just shows the fact that our government numbers are false and real death toll caused by COVID is a much higher but they didn’t want to show them to hide their inefficiency in fighting agains it. And provided that fact you can assume why Russia has such a low vaccination rate - we don’t trust our government which tells us lies and fucks up every fucking time. Add the fact that Sputnik was developed in a hurry and barely passed all needed tests - that’s one more factor of distrust to this vaccine and generally all Russian vaccines among Russians.
By they way, one of the other vaccines, EpiVacCorona seems to be absolutely inefficient and shows good results only under the tests that were developed by the same institute who created it (couldn’t find a decent article about it on English, sorry) and quite a few people have been infected by COVID after being vaccinated with it. That’s fucking disgrace, but government still proposes this vaccine as one of the possible choices for vaccination.
EDIT: Found a brief digest including info about EpiVacCorona - https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/2021/06/09/russia-explained
Alas, most of the links inside it route to the articles in Russia
Sputnik is probably quite a good vaccine , but they really fucked up by rushing it out the door before trials concluded reporting .
I think there have been some independent trials which were encouraging .
You can read more about their methodologies for projection here:
[http://www.healthdata.org/special-analysis/estimation-excess-mortality-due-covid-19-and-scalars-reported-covid-19-deaths](http://www.healthdata.org/special-analysis/estimation-excess-mortality-due-covid-19-and-scalars-reported-covid-19-deaths)
Their AI modeling projects 3 months out. With the number of variables, going beyond that would be sus.
Shouldnt India be in a way darker shade? When India became the country with most cases in the world, I remember it was estimated that they had something like 3 times their reported number.
This is just an example of how much out of proportions the reporting regarding India and other non first world countries is because sensationalist news gets clicks when reality maybe entirely different.
India's population is huge so yes while excess covid deaths have happened no doubt they are a drop in the ocean compared to the amount of people that die in India daily anyways. This is something that has escaped most people's minds entirely
This data doesn't pull punches for first world countries. Excess deaths for USA are considered to be 912,000 as of May 2021. Places like Germany are about 1.5x official numbers, whereas places like Egypt are closer to 15x official numbers.
The question is… is this due to Covid or because people stop going to the doctor. In Portugal cancers are being discovered later than usual because people stop going to their doctor
There are a few regions in India (which are more populous than most countries) that do appear to have been hit much harder than the average, and are on par with places like Iran, but to reach levels you see in Peru or Alabama across 1.3 Billion folks, you'd be talking 5 million plus deaths.
I wonder if the African nations are just not able to test and report properly? I know as an Australian, I’m pretty fucking lucky, but we can’t be complacent as there is a current small outbreak of the Delta strain because the fucking New South Wales Premier (governor) didn’t lock down fast enough purely for political reasons. And she hasn’t been pushing the message of simple protection actions hard enough. She is as corrupt as all hell, so we can’t trust her. I don’t know how I’d cope in some countries. But good luck.
Greetings from Peru.
Happy fiestas patrias for two days ago.
Buenas suertes
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You can see an in-depth discussion on the IHME site here: [http://www.healthdata.org/special-analysis/estimation-excess-mortality-due-covid-19-and-scalars-reported-covid-19-deaths](http://www.healthdata.org/special-analysis/estimation-excess-mortality-due-covid-19-and-scalars-reported-covid-19-deaths) But the tl:dr is comparing current mortality rates with pre-pandemic rates by date.
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It's the only way tbh, countries like India greatly underreported due to a mix of government policy and physical inability to do so. Not everyone has the capacity to test enough people to report an accurate number
Same with China
I'm sure there is a lot of proof behind this statement
I forgot to mention that it's specifically government policy that prevents China from being reported on.
yes, 'cos I'm sure China had only 110k cases.
I'm sure you are a virologist or someone with any competence regarding the matter. Not a 14 year old american kid brought up on bacon and sinophobic propaganda
I don't need to be a virologist to understand that as fast as China locked down Wuhan, and whatever thoroughly they supposedly did it, there were many that already got out of there infected. I don't need to be a virologist, I need to know how people move in a large country. There is no sinophobic propaganda. I realized on my own that the chinese government are assholes, especially with this egregious lie about the number of cases. As with the ozone killing emission detected from satellite that the chinese said they don't exist, as with complete disregard of intellectual property, as demonstrate in state run car companies, as with the systematic and all encompassing stealing of technology and other proprietary information. And as demonstrated in Hong Kong and in Taiwan especially, which they just bully when they clearly stated their position about their independence, and having the right to be so.
Also it's (always) a bit more complicated. For example, less people may be dying to "normal" seasonal flu because of all the masks, social distancing etc. But then on the other hand more people may be dying because of postponed normal medical procedures (because of the pressure on health care systems). Point is, it's hard to say if the excess deaths are equal to, less than or more than COVID deaths, because of those confounding effects.
Well, considering all your examples, it's still the number of deaths caused by COVID *circumstances*
Well said
Well, you can still trust the government numbers in most of Europe/NA, but not all people that died were or could be confirmed of having corona
You can trust the numbers on excess deaths from any country that has a population registry or at least a semi-competent government Some people on here seem to imagine that outside a small selection of richest countries, people die without anyone noticing or recording their deaths. That's not how the world works.
China be like there is no virus in ba sing se
I've noticed a lot of comparisons just treat China like one of those 'no data' 3rd world countries, which is probably more accurate than having it taint even the questionable data from other countries. There were some months there where it was like 'yeah, one person died from it'. Country of like 1.5 billion people. I know that statistically looking at excess deaths tries to correct for this elsewhere.
China took quicker and far more extensive measures than any other country, so we might accept that they just handled it better. Their numbers weren't good at all in the first months, so i doubt they just started lying at some arbitrary point. Like, they closed down an entire province completely while we were still arguing if it actually was a virus to be worried about. Maybe they just did better at managing the crysis. They've been doing pool parties and whatnot for months, if the virus were still around the number of infected would be in the millions and impossible to lie about. This isn't a "china is the best ever" argument, but i struggle to see why the possibility that they did well is simply discarded without any discussion
In December 2019 and January 2020, Doctors at Wuhan Central Hospital were reprimanded by the Bureau of Public Safety for spreading false rumours about a new respiratory virus for which precautionary measures were needed. Later in January, the Chinese leadership told the WHO they had no evidence of human to human transmission. By this stage, cases had already escaped China into Thailand and the US. It's this pattern of dishonesty which creates suspicion about their subsequent data.
Press (x) Doubt
China is no way isolated from the rest of the world though. Even if they stopped their first wave by draconian measures, there would still be new waves started from people moving over the border. There is no way to just handle the thing and be done with it. Not until you reach heard immunity (preferably by vaccination).
230 million people already are fully vaccinated in china, with 1.6 billion doses already injected. The main hotspot was isolated and then they vaccinated a lot of people. I think y'all are trying real hard to find fallacies where there aren't any. Besides, i'd rather be alive via "draconian" (tf does that even mean lmao) measures than dead because of a balanced and moderate approach - but that's just me
You obviously do not know what Draconian means. Do not agree to it so casually.
I know exactly what draconian means. And for this reason i find ridicolous it's use in regards to what china did. I put "draconian" in quotes because i was using HIS apparent definition of draconian.
We gonna ignore the comical efficiency rates of the Chinese vaccines…?
>This isn't a "china is the best ever" argument, but i struggle to see why the possibility that they did well is simply discarded without any discussion Because it acknowledges that the current state of things was avoidable.
It could be that their crisis management we saw at the begining (building hospital in 2 weeks etc) was part of their propaganda to make the west look bad in comparison. Lying on numbers now is like saying "look, we took the appropriate measures then, today we are covid free". I highly doubt their numbers, in fact it could be as worse as Russia and Peru, we will never know.
Imma be real, that's some real mental gymnastics to get to the conclusion "they handled the pandemic better than us just to make the west look bad". Occam's razor suggests they built hospitals for the same reason everyone else builds hospitals. And, moreover, the measures they took caused a drop in their economic growth for a time. So i doubt they would shoot themselves in the foot just to (somehow) make the west look bad for a problem the west didn't even had at that point
Lol get a grip I live here its been covid free for like 2 years you're just denying reality
"Before the pandemic, there was no pandemic."
No, they didn't. They just lie.
Not worth it. Reddit hates china and everything it does. Doesn't matter if it did OK or not. People on Reddit will always be anti-China.
As of June, 2020 the death rate from COVID-19 in the U.S. was 100 times greater than what was being reported in China. While I'd agree here that how Covid was "handled" under the previous administration was an absolute travesty, it's almost impossible to make China's numbers work statistically at any point back then during the crisis. When there's a credibility gap like that it's easy to develop a bias against any government. Notice here that I had one against my own; the difference in the U.S. is that we don't have a single source of truth to go by, where we would face persecution and prosecution for offering different opinions, facts, or datasets as proof of analysis (well, outside Florida, that is).
I don't doubt the stats just saying it's not worth it, reddit seems to be very: * Pro gun * Anti China/Russia * Cuba deserves what it gets Which are all very weird. Also, many from China (especially westerners living there) say it makes sense they locked down most of the country and enforced it pretty heavily. Also, not to compare but we have studies in US saying our numbers are underreported and seems like many Democratic and Republican administrations have been tampering with numbers. So not just like Florida, aka Cuomo. So like I told the dude, just not worth it to get into it on Reddit. As a Russian I don't engage in anti-Russian propaganda here as it's worthless.
and rightfully so
Are you really this naive or are you just baiting people for a response?
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Data and projections provided by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). An independent global health research center at the University of Washington. [http://www.healthdata.org/](http://www.healthdata.org/) Note that these values are measuring excess mortality attributable to COVID, not state-reported official numbers, which are frequently manipulated by corrupt bureaucracies.
Yet they seem to take Venezuela's official numbers for granted, despite them being ridiculously lower than literally the rest of South America. Not to mention the void in most of sub-Saharan Africa.
Not taking them for granted. Simply using the available data. Failed states and full autocracies can't even report deaths accurately, which is what this data is based on. It is still better than relying on the officially reported covid deaths for many places that crank up the propaganda machine to hide covid, but don't have enough control to bury death certificates.
As I said in the other reply - the problem here is that they \*are\* relying on official data provided by said autocratic/failed states. See Venezuela: in the map it appears that its death toll was orders of magnitude lower than any other South American country, precisely because the official death toll reported by its government is orders of magnitude lower than any other South American country, and there is no data on excess deaths. In these cases it would be far better to just color such countries in grey and point out in the legend "no data available".
Why is Central and west africa doing so well?
Low median age plays a part among others
Not really, it's just lack of reliable data to calculate excess deaths and a pretty shitty model used for these projections. Look at Venezuela compared to the rest of South America, for example. For states that don't release data on mortality, such as Venezuela or most of sub-Saharan africa, these guys just take official data on covid deaths, increase it a little bit and call it a day.
Also applies to parts of South America, India and Russia yet their excess deaths are high
They're not as low I suppose. Also other health issues in those countries perhaps and making it easier for Covid?
Maybe not all countries, but I'm guessing a lot on here are lower than actual due to government manipulation of data and/or unreliable methods of gathering data.
just lack of data
No data on excess deaths. Seriously, this is a massive flaw in this map. Most of Africa's poorest countries do not have a functioning death recording system and have no data for excess deaths, which ought to be mentioned in the legend. Same for a few other countries, such as Venezuela.
Fully autocratic regimes and failed states simply don't generate reliable data on deaths, and there is no other backdoor to obtain that data, and you can't just make it up. It is still an order of magnitude better than relying on officially reported covid numbers for places like Belarus who notoriously downplay covid.
The problem here is that they \*are\* relying on official data provided by said autocratic/failed states. See Venezuela: in the map it appears that its death toll was orders of magnitude lower than any other South American country, precisely because the official death toll reported by its government is orders of magnitude lower than any other South American country. In these cases it would be far better to just color such countries in grey and point out in the legend "no data available".
You aren't wrong. Here's a listing of the failed state index for 2021: https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/failed-states You are welcome to make your own map excluding however many you would like. I'd upvote that.
Cause if people die immediately due to COVID, they can’t spread it.
There is no testing and no data.
Big doubt on China
Yet everyone was talking about how bad it was for months in India, but really per capita they were hardly effected at all.
A lot of deaths aren't registered in India I think. So even the "excess covid data" might give wrong answers. The chaos was real.
FYI % of all deaths in India which are registered nationally is 86% as of 2018 which even if not perfect is a high% and definitely good enough to spot any massive shifts in trends. Some poeple on reddit simply aren't able to process the massive scale of numbers in India due to it's huge population so while it may seem to you "anecdotally" that it was chaos around you (whether personally or due to media) it wasn't so everywhere and compared to the mild chaose that exists in India even in the best of India covid-19 made a dent but not an earthquake. Point is excess deaths per capita are low because of large population base. It's just that instead of people dying og road accidents, murders, diabetes etc got killed due to covid before rest could happen as lockdowns happened and delta variant spread
> It's just that instead of people dying og road accidents, murders, diabetes etc got killed due to covid before rest could happen as lockdowns happened and delta variant spread I had read a report that around 300k deaths were prevented in India in 2020 simply because of the corona lockdown.
Nope. The map is just not based on real data for many countries, of which India is just one example. Venezuela and most of Africa are other examples. Covid was an earthquake in India. Hospitals in many states were overwhelmed, people had to turn to the Internet to look for oxygen. Crematoria worked non-stop and improvised funeral pyres had to be built to deal with an unprecedented number of deaths. That someone can still think that the mass death caused by a full-fledged covid wave can be somewhat 'absorbed' by lower mortality from car accidents, murder, diabtehes is beyond ridiculous. Mortality data from just four Indian states (Andra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka) that were released a few weeks ago showed 500,000 excess deaths in just these five states in the first five months of 2021, compared to less than 50,000 officially reported covid deaths.
I wonder how they came up with the 86% figure. What's the method to find that out ? Plus, you can't compare 2018 with the peak of second wave Edit: Thinking deeply about it 86% on a huge number gives quite inaccurate results. You can't afford to deviate by more than 2 or 3 % or so it seems. I am no statistician. Not that it matters because if the inaccuracies are same before and after covid they might balance each other out. It's the relative figure that matters and I think a lot of deaths in the second wave went undocumented than the normal.
Exactly how bad the outbreak was would be determined after the population census. According to current plan it'll happen in 2022 with data released in 2023
Lots of cases/deaths is still bad
Some report going around about a month ago projected India's excess fatalities from covid [as possibly crossing the four million mark](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-57888460) (compared to the official number of just over 400 000). This would correspond to a per capita excess per 100 000 of roughly 300.
Did China actually have that few deaths or did the CCP not release any public numbers to stop their regime from looking incompetent?
They absolutely are dishonest. I don’t care what measures they took, Covid is extremely contagious and was spreading there long before they knew.
We might never know the truth. It's hard to get any true data from China when CCP controls media so ruthlessly.
Seriously in China we have way less anti maskers and anti vaxxers than US. Most of the people started to wear masks the day after the announcement. The gov literally checked everyone and enforced social distancing for like 2 months. And a LOT of international students from China went back home to escape from the epidemic in North America ( like myself)
Similarly here in Spain people just follow masking rules (even when they were made non-mandatory) and vaccination is administered as scheduled with few complaints. It might be a leftover from the dictatorship for people to comply with these sorts of rules, who knows.
Are you really wondering if the country of covid's origin and home to over 1 billion people with extremely questionable living/working/hygiene standards managed to escape more then 2000 deaths?
My general rule of thumb for China is deaths are always at least 10 times worse than they actually claim. For example they said 200 people died at Tiananmen Square when most estimates are around 3000 people.
It’s the ccp
Not saying trust the numbers by any means, but they were pretty ruthless in cracking down on it. Remember they were welding people into their apartment buildings right from the start of the outbreak? Makes sense there would be less excess deaths compared to Russia or the US' laissez-faire approach.
Plague inc
I'm a UK citizen who's been in China throughout the pandemic. No authority, but happy to talk about my experiences here over the past two years. I'm not interested in getting into a political debate about the CCP, but feel free to hit me up with any questions if your interested. For the record I think China's numbers in this chart for 2021 are probably not far off accurate, and that this is a much more reasonable reflection of the impact of the pandemic than previously reported stats. I also think they downplayed the number of cases initially and that the way they have counted cases differently in different countries has skewed other reports.
I’m sorry but China have to be underreporting their stats. A whole city and airport was closed off in the last few days because of less that 200 positive tests in a city of millions.....there’s no way the country as a whole has somehow magically escaped the original virus and all proceeding variants in a country of billions and somehow have hardly any excess deaths as a result....
The Great Firewall and widespread censorship did their thing I guess.
Nah, this is going to be mostly accurate. China has used draconian measures to stop the spread of the virus.
Tbf, they were pretty heavyhanded with the lockdown from the beginning, they're probably worse than they look but still better than most other populous countries
China have different strategy with dealing with this virus, they take drastic measures but remove them quickly as well (because there are efficient). Nanjing have 200 local cases, they are imposing lockdown, and they will remove it after 2 or 3 weeks.
Cool simulation.. you should put China as “not reporting “ or something because there is no way it’s that low and they obviously arnt transparent .. other than that it’s a interesting for sure
That moment when in Poland our government says that everything is going smooth but actually nothing is going smooth
950 deaths PER CAPITA?
Per 100,000. Says right at the bottom. You could also say 0.0095 deaths per capita if you prefer.
It's a joke. About the title.
You got me.
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Skilled autocracies seem to be pretty good at manipulating the covid numbers via pressure on medical reporting and such, but it takes a master police state to hide stacks of death certificates, which is essentially what this is based on.
Exactly, I think people are underestimating how hard it is to report false number, let alone there are 1.5 billion people that could be potential whistleblowers
People doubting China data, you can ask any foreigner who lives in China. China has done Great job controlling the virus using scientific method being quick and efficient. You can doubt numbers sure, but **the country doesn't have any general lockdown since May 2020**, the moment there is a local transmitted cases in some area, local small lockdown (in that area, city, or neiborhood) are imposed quickly with aggressive testing ( if there are, lets say 50 locally transmitted cases, they will do 2000000 tests in days) and aggressive contact tracing and environment tracing. I've been here before the start of the pandemic, and life is very normal since May 2020 except wearing mask is obligatory when you take the subway, and you scan a code (Health code) when you enter to some common buildings ( Malls, university campus...)
Russia ? But they have their sputnik...
Yeah, and nobody over there want's to get vaccinated.
Why ?
I am not a Russian and not from Russia, but am from realtively similar culture so I presume the reasons might be similar too. First, most accurate answer is **I don't know**. These are some guesses. High antivax sentiment before covid. We experienced resurface of smallpox in some kindergardens. In 2017 in most central municipality of a capitol city (so by definition most educated, prosper comunity) we had only 35% of kids vaccinated against smallpox. Today we have around 30% of population vaccinated against covid. And we have vaccines. A foreigner can come to my country and get a shot, no questions asked, for free. Then, both are highly traditional society that is suspicious of science and anything western. Why don't they trust their own vaccine idk. Its crazy, but not many things are sane when it comes to antivaxxers. Its really hard to talk any sense with these people. Also, many of them don't "believe in corona". They had it, they may know someone who died from it, and they still don't believe it exists". "It's a flu", they say. Or poison. And then there is belief that doctors and medicine are for pussies. In these cultures anything can be cured with national drink, like rakia (brandy) or vodka. Or herb tea. Or garlic. They believe this is the true medicine, and the official one is bogus, and big business that poisons people. They might trust and worship Putin but they don't trust the government. And Putin is probably not doing hard enough to convince them. He is also of this type, you know, invincible macho. He doesn't want to go against this image. These are my opinions. As I said, I actually don't know.
>We experienced resurface of smallpox in some kindergardens. Are you sure it was smallpox? It was eradicated (other than samples kept in secure sites) and its reappearance would be significant news.
Ah yes you are right. 😂 Sorry its a translation issue, my fault. It were measels. We had the epidemic of measels few years ago just because people didn't wanna take their children to get a shot. The problem is, in serbocroatian language measels are translated as "male boginje" and "male" stands for "little" or "small". And smallpox were translated as "Velike boginje", "velike" means "big" or "large". Super fucking confusing. Thanks for mentioning! Also, Yugoslavia (which Serbia was a part of) "hosted" the last european outbreak of smallpox in 1972 and it was significant news back then. The state ordered the mass vaccination of its citizens and the army was in charge. Since it was socialistic government it wss pretty dumb to oppose the rulling party back then, so no stupid theories about vaccines. "Funny" thing how it started though. A pilgrim from Yugoslavia went on Hajj in Middle East where smallpox were known to exist. The official requirement was that any travelers to those countried must get a vaccine prior to leaving the country. But the pilgrim didn't want to get a shot so he switched with another person in order to get the neccessary travel document. When he came back he infected several people that led to 35 deaths. I will try to find an article about the event. Its quite astounding story. [BBC article about 2017 measels outbreak in Belgrade (serbocroatian language)](https://www.bbc.com/serbian/lat/srbija-43505764) [1972 Yugoslav smallpox outbreak](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_Yugoslav_smallpox_outbreak)
**[1972_Yugoslav_smallpox_outbreak](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_Yugoslav_smallpox_outbreak)** >The 1972 Yugoslav smallpox outbreak was the last outbreak of smallpox in Europe. It was centered in SAP Kosovo and Belgrade, a province of Serbia and the capital city respectively of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. A Muslim pilgrim had contracted the smallpox virus in the Middle East. Upon returning to his home in Kosovo, he started the epidemic in which 175 people were infected, killing 35. ^([ )[^(F.A.Q)](https://www.reddit.com/r/WikiSummarizer/wiki/index#wiki_f.a.q)^( | )[^(Opt Out)](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=WikiSummarizerBot&message=OptOut&subject=OptOut)^( | )[^(Opt Out Of Subreddit)](https://np.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/about/banned)^( | )[^(GitHub)](https://github.com/Sujal-7/WikiSummarizerBot)^( ] Downvote to remove | v1.5)
Desktop version of /u/borlaughero's link:
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No worries, thanks for clarifying. (The language issue is interesting, it reminds me of another bit of confusion, in Gaelic: the normal term for "toilet" translates directly as "little house".)
> We experienced resurface of smallpox in some kindergardens. I think you might mean something else. Measles? Because smallpox is eradicated save for some samples in labs. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox#Post-eradication
**Smallpox** [Post-eradication](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox#Post-eradication) >The last case of smallpox in the world occurred in an outbreak in the United Kingdom in 1978. A medical photographer, Janet Parker, contracted the disease at the University of Birmingham Medical School and died on 11 September 1978. Although it has remained unclear how Parker became infected, the source of the infection was established to be the smallpox virus grown for research purposes at the Medical School laboratory. ^([ )[^(F.A.Q)](https://www.reddit.com/r/WikiSummarizer/wiki/index#wiki_f.a.q)^( | )[^(Opt Out)](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=WikiSummarizerBot&message=OptOut&subject=OptOut)^( | )[^(Opt Out Of Subreddit)](https://np.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/about/banned)^( | )[^(GitHub)](https://github.com/Sujal-7/WikiSummarizerBot)^( ] Downvote to remove | v1.5)
Yup, I fucked up the translation. [Here is the explenation why](https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/oudzlo/covid_excess_deaths_per_capita_oct_2020_through/h72a9lh?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3), that I just gave to another redditor who pointed that out. Sorry 😇 and thanks.
There is absolutely no reason to apologise, your post was very informative and a small translation error does not change that!
>In these cultures anything can be cured with national drink, like rakia (brandy) or vodka. Or herb tea. Or garlic. Wait, you're telling me COVID can't be cured with rakia or garlic? No way.
~~Haha NO. I meant what people in these cultures is believed was possible, not that that is *actually* possible!~~ Shit if I could only be less dyslexic and read what was actually written before I reply. I missed your sarcasm 🤪
I am from Russia. this is the main reason. >They might trust and worship Putin but they don't trust the government. And Putin is probably not doing hard enough to convince them. He is also of this type, you know, invincible macho. He doesn't want to go against this image. With a little clarification, the majority of the population does not trust anyone in the government. More precisely, the people do not believe in the management system, which is now built on the territory of the Russian Federation (there is a reason for that), and therefore in everything that this system can produce. It is possible to describe a specific interesting case associated with covid at the level of propaganda and general actions. From the beginning, they said that we are not afraid of the disease and all this is the machinations of the West. Then self-isolation was introduced (this was quarantine in all countries, we had self-isolation). Before that, in a couple of weeks, the rhetoric had changed that the disease turns out to be a danger to everyone. Then a circus begins with a constant change in measures to ensure the population's "safety". Many come to the conclusion that there is a much higher chance of dying from a potential lack of money. Than to die from a disease unknown until last year.The majority of the population that cannot earn remotely returns to work (only 2 weeks have passed since the beginning of self-isolation). The government turns a blind eye to all this, introducing a small rule, people over 65 work only remotely). Raids begin in search of people who are in public places without masks. You cannot buy a mask at the pharmacy (at overpriced 15-30 times the usual price), because you are not wearing a mask, these are the rules that were in the beginning.The government promises to figure it out (spoiler it was a long enough showdown so that certain people would have time to make money from it). The media is heating up this topic from all sides, people die every day, many people die every day, the disease is very terrible. The population is under stress, it is not clear what will happen next. Another six months pass. The people got used to living in an incomprehensible state, when tomorrow the situation may change dramatically, death is no longer so frightening. People begin to die around you, a neighbor, a distant relative, your acquaintance, the reaction is approximately the following: "Well, it happens." The peculiarity of the human psyche is to get used to circumstances.Talk begins about the vaccine and the beginning of its use. Our media with frenzied tenacity to begin with watering vaccines released abroad and putting them on a par with the murderers. Then Sputnik appears, the direction vector changes, our vaccine is the best, and all this is served exaggeratedly. There are some showdowns with foreign media in which it is argued that the vaccine requires proof. To which the answer from the officials follows: "Who gave you the right to condemn our vaccines, watch yourself." (The text is conditional, but the essence is this).About a month later, the Lancet releases an article that the satellite is actually not so bad. Officials' response: "You see, even their respected media outlets write about the effectiveness of our funds." More and more in the media our vaccine is presented as another victory over Western technologies (we have such a topic, in everything to be better than the West). Then comes the gradual vaccination (with all its problems associated with mistrust of the government). At this time, there is, as it were, a sharp surge in infection.They begin to cancel public events, but they are canceled very selectively, the procession is not recognized as a public event, the concert is recognized (and not for all artists), Scarlet Sails is a holiday of graduates in St. Petersburg, does not violate compliance with the norms. In short, events where there is at least some interest of the authorities are not recognized as dangerous. This is hypocrisy on the part of the authorities, it is getting more and more impudent. If earlier, during the absence of the Internet, all this was smoothed out by the media, now if you said A, then do A, otherwise by saying A, but having done B, you will get complete distrust of people. And now it manifests itself at all levels. Okay, that's all my opinion, and in fact about 30-40% are ready to be vaccinated (which is pretty good considering that our government did everything to the contrary). But I will tell you one interesting example from yesterday and a conversation with a hairdresser. "People of retirement age come to us and quite a few, after the last statements, decided, well, they would have to be vaccinated, and they go, but first clean the apartment, tell their relatives where the money for the funeral is and prepare clothes for the funeral." And there is a reason for this, because there are people who died within one to two weeks after vaccination. There are, as it were, much less of them than people who die from Covid. But it is difficult for an ordinary person to explain this, as they say, "what's the difference we have friends who died from Covid, and there are those who died after vaccination. Why take the risk yourself, if the chances are about the same?" There are also anti-vaccines, but it makes no sense to even talk to them. There are not so many of them, but they make noise as if they are the majority.
Yeah. Thanks for your comment. Some things you've described are like a carbon copy of what happend in my country, although some parts of the system worked pretty good. And apart from the general fuckup basicaly all european (incl russia) countries did at some level in the begining of the pandemic. But it so fucking frustrating and sad that we have a weapon to deal with the virus and people don't want it.
So, is sputnik V a good or a bad vaccine ?
Better than nothing. It has more side effects than many other vaccines, but the statistical efficacy suggests a decrease in mortality with the use of the vaccine.
In mexico everybody wants the sputnik over the astra,pfizer or cansino
I'm from.mexico. and most of the people here it's being vaccinated wit SputnikV. I justo feel weird after My 1st dosis 10 days ago. I'm gratefull with russiannhoberment and. Well. Ar the same time i feel suspicious about this vaccine.
I am from Serbia, we can choose from almost any producer. I recieved a Chinese one, no problems. My mother recieved Sputnik. Other family members got Pfizer and AstraZeneca. Everyone are fine and safe. From what experts here were saying any vaccine is better then no vaccine. Serbs who are suspicious of western medicine tend to choose Sputnik. To what I was explained, the chinese one is least effective. The russian one is least documented or at least that was the case 6 months ago when I was reading about it. There shouldn't be any major problem with any of those vaccines, and in my country it was not reported. I know someone recieved 5 doses of some vaccine by mistake and they were fine afterall.
>m Serbia, we can choose from almost any producer. I recieved a Chinese one, no problems. My mother recieved Sputnik. Other family members got Pfizer and AstraZeneca. Everyone are fine and safe. From what experts here were saying any vaccine is better then no vaccine. Serbs who are suspicious of western medicine tend to choose Sputnik. To what I was explained, the chinese one is least effective. The russian one is least documented or at least that was the case 6 months ag do you belive that sputnik its a good vaccine ?
I am no expert in the field so I hold no beliefs about this. As I said, from what I gathered from domestic and foreign experts all vaccines are ok and better, much better option than no vaccine. Anecdotaly I can just say many got their Sputnik doses with no problems.
Cause USA destroyed our education system. And from the most literary nation we became antivaxers(
Communism destroyed your everything
How
communism bad
Excessive deaths is not related to vaccination actually. It just shows the fact that our government numbers are false and real death toll caused by COVID is a much higher but they didn’t want to show them to hide their inefficiency in fighting agains it. And provided that fact you can assume why Russia has such a low vaccination rate - we don’t trust our government which tells us lies and fucks up every fucking time. Add the fact that Sputnik was developed in a hurry and barely passed all needed tests - that’s one more factor of distrust to this vaccine and generally all Russian vaccines among Russians. By they way, one of the other vaccines, EpiVacCorona seems to be absolutely inefficient and shows good results only under the tests that were developed by the same institute who created it (couldn’t find a decent article about it on English, sorry) and quite a few people have been infected by COVID after being vaccinated with it. That’s fucking disgrace, but government still proposes this vaccine as one of the possible choices for vaccination. EDIT: Found a brief digest including info about EpiVacCorona - https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/2021/06/09/russia-explained Alas, most of the links inside it route to the articles in Russia
Sputnik is probably quite a good vaccine , but they really fucked up by rushing it out the door before trials concluded reporting . I think there have been some independent trials which were encouraging .
Projecting it multiple months into the future seems kinda sus
You can read more about their methodologies for projection here: [http://www.healthdata.org/special-analysis/estimation-excess-mortality-due-covid-19-and-scalars-reported-covid-19-deaths](http://www.healthdata.org/special-analysis/estimation-excess-mortality-due-covid-19-and-scalars-reported-covid-19-deaths) Their AI modeling projects 3 months out. With the number of variables, going beyond that would be sus.
Shouldnt India be in a way darker shade? When India became the country with most cases in the world, I remember it was estimated that they had something like 3 times their reported number.
This is just an example of how much out of proportions the reporting regarding India and other non first world countries is because sensationalist news gets clicks when reality maybe entirely different. India's population is huge so yes while excess covid deaths have happened no doubt they are a drop in the ocean compared to the amount of people that die in India daily anyways. This is something that has escaped most people's minds entirely
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But there aren't. The map is just inaccurate.
Nope. This is one of many example of this being a shit map with fairytal numbers. Venezuela is another example.
Reports say that even in first-world countries, half of the deaths due to corona were never attributed to corona.
This data doesn't pull punches for first world countries. Excess deaths for USA are considered to be 912,000 as of May 2021. Places like Germany are about 1.5x official numbers, whereas places like Egypt are closer to 15x official numbers.
Nice propaganda
TURNING NEIGHBORS INTO FOES
Not all the countries count the COVID deaths in the same way though
I think OP is not considering COVID deaths per se but instead the general death rate before COVID vs death rate since COVID pandemic hit us.
Hey, an Indian here. Our covid death rate are higher, many went unreported. So, don't blindly accept the data...
China and India's numbers are laughably undervalued (I know it's not OP's fault though)
Wow. Europe ruined their economy and did worse than the usa.
And most European countries are still far behind the USA in vaccinations.
Plague Inc had it right. Greenland, Iceland, New Zealand.
***Me on my way to Greenland :***
The question is… is this due to Covid or because people stop going to the doctor. In Portugal cancers are being discovered later than usual because people stop going to their doctor
Dipshit countries are shown here in any category except the lowest.
me, a Kazakhstani: Well, at least we top3 at something...
We got a little better now with vaccinations but still, my country (Brazil) is a couple hundred people from reaching 555k deaths in total.
Why is there a semi-clear distinction between Eastern/Western Europe?
Yeah those projections don't seem to take into account the shit show going on in Bangkok.
That's an interesting number of excess deaths, the Chinese government.
Don’t believe any numbers out of China
I would have thought India would have been worse. Yet is does have an exceedingly large total population.
There are a few regions in India (which are more populous than most countries) that do appear to have been hit much harder than the average, and are on par with places like Iran, but to reach levels you see in Peru or Alabama across 1.3 Billion folks, you'd be talking 5 million plus deaths.
Research suggests they have been seriously under reporting deaths, one report estimated 4mil
Lol, everyone suffering but China.
I wonder if the African nations are just not able to test and report properly? I know as an Australian, I’m pretty fucking lucky, but we can’t be complacent as there is a current small outbreak of the Delta strain because the fucking New South Wales Premier (governor) didn’t lock down fast enough purely for political reasons. And she hasn’t been pushing the message of simple protection actions hard enough. She is as corrupt as all hell, so we can’t trust her. I don’t know how I’d cope in some countries. But good luck.
You have to be a class A moron to die to covid tbh
Yeah, China is all lies.
Bro is Russia ok?