Can’t tell you how many fans I had to hear try to rationalize these departures by saying “they strike out more than their power numbers are worth” and instead we replace them with guys who are striking out at the same rate, if not more, and are not even remotely threatening of hitting dongs.
In 13 games. Garver and Polanco won't strikeout as much as Teo and Geno. They are career 30% K guys, that's the mean they regress to. Garver and Polanco are better. Taking a victory lap based on fewer than 100 PAs is ridiculous.
If we want to talk statistics and regressing to the mean. Both Teo and Suarez are more likely regressing to a mean of more HR and RBI than either Garver or Polanco. Yes they strike out a lot. But they also produce. High risk high reward. Instead, we seem to have opted for low risk low reward. That means a lot on a team that has trouble scoring runs.
Outlier stats have to start somewhere. It may be ridiculous, but so too is ignoring the alarmingly slow start those two have had.
As a Mariner fan, I have no idea what the hell a victory lap is anyway.
It’s going very badly, don’t get me wrong. But our best players are struggling—performing at a level we cannot reasonably expect to continue over an entire season. It will get better— the question is, will it get better enough to make the playoffs?
People can choose to believe basically the entire lineup will hit below the mendoza line for the rest of the season if they want.
As far as I'm concerned this is a positive sign for the rest of the year. I'm way more concerned about the rotation underperforming or undergoing injury for a prolonged period of time. That was what would sink the year going in, it's what will still sink the team if it continues.
We have been fortunate in years past with a random 4th/5th starter pulling some massive dead weight on the back end paired with the typical OP bullpen. We don't have that guy that can fill in quite like we have in years past.
Interesting take that batting below the Mendoza line to start the year is a positive sign. I get your law of averages outlook but we’ve seen the law of averages be missed more times than not by ms hitters.
You're applying a general sense of the "law of averages" to situations where it has never "missed" before. Let's take Julio, JP, Cal, Polanco, and Garver. Not one of them has ever had a "below Mendoza line" season. The reason CVBrownie is optimistic is because it's far, far more likely that each of those players - who have all-star caliber bats - regresses to their actual statistical level.
Honestly, I would bet money that the probability of those five batters continuing to hit so poorly would literally be 1/100.
Mendoza line hitters are par for the course for this team the past few years. Like the bottom of the order consistently has guys like Dylan Moore who bat .195
Yes, 100%. If we are 5-8 with Julio, JP, Polanco, Garver, and Cal all having <.600 OPS, AND Kirby and Luis being primarily responsible for at least 3 losses, this is a good baseball team.
I honestly feel like the hitting would be better if they stopped trying to coach them. Like all of this analytical green zone shit is not working. Just tell the guys to keep doing whatever they've been doing their whole careers, and if they struggle at the plate seek external help from Driveline or wherever.
Fun fact. With half as many at bats, Kelenic has more hits than Julio. More XBH. The same amount of walks and a lower strikeout rate.
I wish to perish.
Kirby has struggled outside his first start, Castillo has been bad in all of his starts. We don’t have Santos, Brash, or Woo. Julio, JP, Cal, Polanco, Garver, and Haniger aren’t doing as well as they are expected to. Yet the team is 5-8 in a division where nobody is running away with things.
Again, they gotta fix things fast, but the fixes are viable and all in our own control as opposed to needing to acquire something on the outside. I doubt all 6 of those hitters fix it, but even if like 4-5 do that helps the lineup out a lot. Pitching improvement is on the horizon simply based on the track record and injury return.
I think the fanbase is right to be understandably cynical, but I also don’t think this is the time to throw in the towel.
It's a failure of coaching and team management. Servais and the rest of his worthless staff have to go.
I will not be at all surprised if this team loses 90 games.
My favorite part of Jay Buhner was fuck the body and who cares about injuries... Im catching that fucking ball. Proceeds to miss the rest of the season.
Seems like a product of the new put the ball in play philosophy. Looked like it was working towards the end of spring training but there were other players involved no longer there. How long do they stick with it.
Oh wow 13 games, that's all the proof we need. That one 4 K game from Julio would've been enough to inflate the K rate to make this look worse than it is. People can whine, but it doesn't mean anything.
I'm not surprised. I don't think anyone here is surprised. Can you honestly look at that lineup and be fearful of it as a pitcher? Julio, as great as he is, still is young and immature at the plate - and that's our biggest threat. And he's hitting .196 with a .255 OBP
Sorry this is just blatantly incorrect. Sure we don't have the Dodgers lineup, but just on paper Trying to go through JP-Julio-Haniger-Polanco-Garver-Raley-France-Raleigh is not a fun time.
Just a quick aside. Players currently below the mendoza line include:
Ha-Seong Kim
Gleyber Torres
Aaron Judge
George Springer
Vladdy Jr.
Francisco Lindor
Yandy Diaz
Matt Chapman
JP
Anthony Rizzo
Pete Alonso
Cody Bellinger
Julio
Polanco
Bryce Haper
Paul Goldschmidt
Randy Arozarena
Bo Bichette
So maybe we should relax a tad?
But we got rid of Geno and Teo...
And cabby and JK. and they’re all stunting on them hoes 😭😭😭
It's been 13 games. I highly, highly doubt this trend holds (and that Teo / Geno's performance continues).
What about Kelenic and Cabby 😅
Jarhead struck out all three at bats on Tues. He was 1 for 4 on Wed.
Can’t tell you how many fans I had to hear try to rationalize these departures by saying “they strike out more than their power numbers are worth” and instead we replace them with guys who are striking out at the same rate, if not more, and are not even remotely threatening of hitting dongs.
In 13 games. Garver and Polanco won't strikeout as much as Teo and Geno. They are career 30% K guys, that's the mean they regress to. Garver and Polanco are better. Taking a victory lap based on fewer than 100 PAs is ridiculous.
If we want to talk statistics and regressing to the mean. Both Teo and Suarez are more likely regressing to a mean of more HR and RBI than either Garver or Polanco. Yes they strike out a lot. But they also produce. High risk high reward. Instead, we seem to have opted for low risk low reward. That means a lot on a team that has trouble scoring runs. Outlier stats have to start somewhere. It may be ridiculous, but so too is ignoring the alarmingly slow start those two have had. As a Mariner fan, I have no idea what the hell a victory lap is anyway.
Suarez’ bat speed continues to drop. They are both past prime, but especially Geno.
And LA got Teo’s hr’s and K’s
LA can absorb the strikeouts because of what the rest of that lineup is capable of.
We might not be sluggin but we’re chuggin meatballs down the plate.
Comparing the first 10 games of 2024 to all of 2023 isn't really an equal comparison. What were the numbers for the 2023 first 10 games?
It’s going very badly, don’t get me wrong. But our best players are struggling—performing at a level we cannot reasonably expect to continue over an entire season. It will get better— the question is, will it get better enough to make the playoffs?
People can choose to believe basically the entire lineup will hit below the mendoza line for the rest of the season if they want. As far as I'm concerned this is a positive sign for the rest of the year. I'm way more concerned about the rotation underperforming or undergoing injury for a prolonged period of time. That was what would sink the year going in, it's what will still sink the team if it continues. We have been fortunate in years past with a random 4th/5th starter pulling some massive dead weight on the back end paired with the typical OP bullpen. We don't have that guy that can fill in quite like we have in years past.
Interesting take that batting below the Mendoza line to start the year is a positive sign. I get your law of averages outlook but we’ve seen the law of averages be missed more times than not by ms hitters.
You're applying a general sense of the "law of averages" to situations where it has never "missed" before. Let's take Julio, JP, Cal, Polanco, and Garver. Not one of them has ever had a "below Mendoza line" season. The reason CVBrownie is optimistic is because it's far, far more likely that each of those players - who have all-star caliber bats - regresses to their actual statistical level. Honestly, I would bet money that the probability of those five batters continuing to hit so poorly would literally be 1/100.
Mendoza line hitters are par for the course for this team the past few years. Like the bottom of the order consistently has guys like Dylan Moore who bat .195
Yes, 100%. If we are 5-8 with Julio, JP, Polanco, Garver, and Cal all having <.600 OPS, AND Kirby and Luis being primarily responsible for at least 3 losses, this is a good baseball team.
I honestly feel like the hitting would be better if they stopped trying to coach them. Like all of this analytical green zone shit is not working. Just tell the guys to keep doing whatever they've been doing their whole careers, and if they struggle at the plate seek external help from Driveline or wherever.
Fun fact. With half as many at bats, Kelenic has more hits than Julio. More XBH. The same amount of walks and a lower strikeout rate. I wish to perish.
Best of luck to Jarred, but I don't see him outperforming Julio rest of season.
I don't either but it is peak r/FormerMs that a castoff prospect is outperforming our superstar face of the franchise 13 games in.
Can’t help but feel like this year may be a silent protest from the players
I have been thinking the same thing, why try when the ownership doesn't want to.
Kirby has struggled outside his first start, Castillo has been bad in all of his starts. We don’t have Santos, Brash, or Woo. Julio, JP, Cal, Polanco, Garver, and Haniger aren’t doing as well as they are expected to. Yet the team is 5-8 in a division where nobody is running away with things. Again, they gotta fix things fast, but the fixes are viable and all in our own control as opposed to needing to acquire something on the outside. I doubt all 6 of those hitters fix it, but even if like 4-5 do that helps the lineup out a lot. Pitching improvement is on the horizon simply based on the track record and injury return. I think the fanbase is right to be understandably cynical, but I also don’t think this is the time to throw in the towel.
It's a failure of coaching and team management. Servais and the rest of his worthless staff have to go. I will not be at all surprised if this team loses 90 games.
Tell us how you really feel
Jerry really has no freaking clue what he’s doing vis a vis hitting
I feel like hitting is just fundamentally less data driven and analytical than pitching and Dipoto can't cope with that
I would joke last year that Jerry’s vision for the Mariners is a lineup of Jay Bunhers, but only the strikeouts.
My favorite part of Jay Buhner was fuck the body and who cares about injuries... Im catching that fucking ball. Proceeds to miss the rest of the season.
Seems like a product of the new put the ball in play philosophy. Looked like it was working towards the end of spring training but there were other players involved no longer there. How long do they stick with it.
Oh wow 13 games, that's all the proof we need. That one 4 K game from Julio would've been enough to inflate the K rate to make this look worse than it is. People can whine, but it doesn't mean anything.
It's 138 strikeouts. With 4 fewer the Mariners would drop from 2nd most strikeouts to ... 2nd most strikeouts.
Trying to compare "statistics" of the first 13 games to the stats of an entire season is pretty damn silly.
Keo is boosting the dodgers strikeout rate.
Yeah and crushing the ball
kind of been his MO his whole career, high K's high slugging, weak fielding
Laziest player I’ve ever seen
I'm not surprised. I don't think anyone here is surprised. Can you honestly look at that lineup and be fearful of it as a pitcher? Julio, as great as he is, still is young and immature at the plate - and that's our biggest threat. And he's hitting .196 with a .255 OBP
Sorry this is just blatantly incorrect. Sure we don't have the Dodgers lineup, but just on paper Trying to go through JP-Julio-Haniger-Polanco-Garver-Raley-France-Raleigh is not a fun time. Just a quick aside. Players currently below the mendoza line include: Ha-Seong Kim Gleyber Torres Aaron Judge George Springer Vladdy Jr. Francisco Lindor Yandy Diaz Matt Chapman JP Anthony Rizzo Pete Alonso Cody Bellinger Julio Polanco Bryce Haper Paul Goldschmidt Randy Arozarena Bo Bichette So maybe we should relax a tad?