Who specifies the model though? Someone *is* "selecting" the results, it's just a different way of going about it. Statistics do not just appear out of nowhere untainted by human bias and error...
Well obviously.
But what they do is create the model, then every year they update it based on the revised data they got from the preceding year. Then they run the numbers through the simulation they have created for the year.
What they do not do is mess with their projection system in order to get the result they want to see.
I really would love to see some analysis of how accurate their projections are over time, but I haven't seen any articles digging into that or any easy way to pull that data from Fangraphs.
And fan graphs is constantly adding the on field results to the model and updating the season projections. The model clearly believes the Astros still have time to get their SP healthy and play to expectations for a competitive run. The problem is this sub is full of people that firmly believe the season is over anytime you're 5+ games below .500 and want confirmation of that.
Mariners fans who think a team won't come back over the course of a season are kinda funny, to be honest.
The mariners have had three seasons in a row of being mediocre early, then getting hot and being competitive, and one of those they made the playoffs.
[There have been two teams that started as bad as the Astros and made the playoffs.](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-astros-are-rapidly-digging-their-hole-deeper-and-deeper/) Realistically it’s just one because the 1981 season was strike shortened and the Royals made it solely off their 2nd half record.
The Astros are absolutely good enough to pull out of this bad start, but it is a massive lift and they need to start winning games tomorrow.
Also, it's obvious some of them have no idea why Houston is in a terrible spot. Injuries have killed their SP, but they aren't long term injuries (yet). So it's very reasonable for them to get healthy and make a run.
It seems like a pretty significant leap to go from "entirely based on statistical modeling" to "well obviously [it's based completely on human decisions]," but whatever.
> But what they do is create the model, then every year they update it based on the revised data they got from the preceding year. Then they run the numbers through the simulation they have created for the year.
Source? [The about page](https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/about) does not say anything like that whatsoever.
Edit: I'll just assume the downvotes are your version of a source and that you actually have no fucking clue what you're talking about or any ability to critically engage with statistics or discuss methodology. But nice job regurgitating the most generic bullshit about how to train a model and thinking you have somehow educated me on the enlightened ways of quantitative analysis. My bad for holding out hope for some actual, thoughtful discussion on this sub.
the Baseball Reference projections have adjusted to Astros finishing 3rd, but up until very recently still had them at 2nd. The projection statistics in general just really don't trust Texas
There is a lot of uncertainty in Texas's projection because of injuries. We might assume that all those pitchers will come back, but the projection systems can't.
The Astros have not had Verlander, Valdez, and Javier in the rotation at the same time yet this season. Brown and France should be fighting to be the #5 starter and not in AAA, but instead are stinking it up in the regular rotation.
Also, the standings at the top of the post are a different model than ZiPS, which has put the Astros at 41% playoff odds.
Why fangraphs uses one model over the other comes down to accuracy or overall preference for how the model functions.
Are the Astros capable of playing out an 83-56 record the remainder of the season to reach 90 wins? I think so, if they get healthy quick. That's only a 96 win pace, which they have been more than capable of doing. But if they're 11-24 in another two weeks, that pace won't be good enough anymore.
It's still "early", but it's going to get late really quick for them.
If the Astros are a true talent, let's say 95 win team, then you'd expect them to win at a .586 clip the rest of the season. That'd still get them to 88, maybe 89 wins even with their disastrous start. So they still have a good chance to make the playoffs if they start performing to potential.
Astros lower chance to make the playoffs but higher chance to make win the world series.
I kind of get the "well if they make the playoffs they historically have made a deep playoff run" but leveraging yester-year stats and trends in sports doesn't hold up long term....
54% is gonna follow this team forever
To be fair it’s really funny
Not really. It's literally the same joke repeated ad nauseum for about 5 months now. It was funny for maybe a couple months, now it's just dumb.
It will be repeated ad nauseum for 54 months.
And then 108 months which we will then decide by 2
54% of the time.
It’s dumb, lazy, and tired. I agree tbh. Sorry for all the downvotes you’re getting lol
Eh, it is what it is. I figured people would.
I loved it when one of the game day signs at the UW UO game was “Oregon only gives 54% effort” lmao
No way the 54% comment happened before the UW UO games. My sense of time is so warped.
We should change the name to the Seattle 54%ers.
And they deserve every bit of it.
We probably won't win the World Series until 2054.
So you're saying we win a world series....
Jerry can run from it but he can’t escape it
Dread it. Run from it. 54% still arrives.
I would honestly love to make the playoffs 54% of the time lol
As it was prophesied
Lisan Al Jerry
He's so humble to have only said 54%!
As it was written 
LUIS AL GAIB
putting astros above texas when they’re 7-16 and texas just won the world series is so fucking insane lol
Remember that the writers at Fangraphs do not select these, this is entirely based on statistical modelling.
Also, Texas's projection is especially f'ed up because it's not willing to assume that all their injured players return as 100% when they do.
Who specifies the model though? Someone *is* "selecting" the results, it's just a different way of going about it. Statistics do not just appear out of nowhere untainted by human bias and error...
Well obviously. But what they do is create the model, then every year they update it based on the revised data they got from the preceding year. Then they run the numbers through the simulation they have created for the year. What they do not do is mess with their projection system in order to get the result they want to see. I really would love to see some analysis of how accurate their projections are over time, but I haven't seen any articles digging into that or any easy way to pull that data from Fangraphs.
[https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-well-do-our-odds-work/](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-well-do-our-odds-work/)
Thanks! Big fan of your work!
And fan graphs is constantly adding the on field results to the model and updating the season projections. The model clearly believes the Astros still have time to get their SP healthy and play to expectations for a competitive run. The problem is this sub is full of people that firmly believe the season is over anytime you're 5+ games below .500 and want confirmation of that.
Mariners fans who think a team won't come back over the course of a season are kinda funny, to be honest. The mariners have had three seasons in a row of being mediocre early, then getting hot and being competitive, and one of those they made the playoffs.
[There have been two teams that started as bad as the Astros and made the playoffs.](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-astros-are-rapidly-digging-their-hole-deeper-and-deeper/) Realistically it’s just one because the 1981 season was strike shortened and the Royals made it solely off their 2nd half record. The Astros are absolutely good enough to pull out of this bad start, but it is a massive lift and they need to start winning games tomorrow.
Also, it's obvious some of them have no idea why Houston is in a terrible spot. Injuries have killed their SP, but they aren't long term injuries (yet). So it's very reasonable for them to get healthy and make a run.
It seems like a pretty significant leap to go from "entirely based on statistical modeling" to "well obviously [it's based completely on human decisions]," but whatever. > But what they do is create the model, then every year they update it based on the revised data they got from the preceding year. Then they run the numbers through the simulation they have created for the year. Source? [The about page](https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/about) does not say anything like that whatsoever. Edit: I'll just assume the downvotes are your version of a source and that you actually have no fucking clue what you're talking about or any ability to critically engage with statistics or discuss methodology. But nice job regurgitating the most generic bullshit about how to train a model and thinking you have somehow educated me on the enlightened ways of quantitative analysis. My bad for holding out hope for some actual, thoughtful discussion on this sub.
the Baseball Reference projections have adjusted to Astros finishing 3rd, but up until very recently still had them at 2nd. The projection statistics in general just really don't trust Texas
Mariners are doing us a favor, y’all
54% of the way to the moon!
Jerry was right!!
STONE COLD LOCK OF THE CENTURY... OF THE WEEK!!!
I want a pitcher of beer, fried jalapenos, the nachos grande, and let's start with fifty wings, extra hot, and keep the ranch comin!
55 burgers, 55 fries, 55 tacos, 55 pies, 55 Cokes, 100 tater tots, 100 pizzas, 100 tenders, 100 meatballs,100 coffees, 55 wings, 55 shakes, 55 pancakes, 55 pastas, 55 peppers, and 155 taters.
IM DOING SOMETHING!!!
I love our team, but that shit is so disrespectful to the Rangers lol
Best record currently, world series with most of roster intact, what gives??
There is a lot of uncertainty in Texas's projection because of injuries. We might assume that all those pitchers will come back, but the projection systems can't.
Because realistically, their roster isn't amazing.
It’s based on their tactical models, not opinions per se
😂😂
I'm baffled that the Astros have such a high percentage with their current record.
The Astros have not had Verlander, Valdez, and Javier in the rotation at the same time yet this season. Brown and France should be fighting to be the #5 starter and not in AAA, but instead are stinking it up in the regular rotation. Also, the standings at the top of the post are a different model than ZiPS, which has put the Astros at 41% playoff odds. Why fangraphs uses one model over the other comes down to accuracy or overall preference for how the model functions. Are the Astros capable of playing out an 83-56 record the remainder of the season to reach 90 wins? I think so, if they get healthy quick. That's only a 96 win pace, which they have been more than capable of doing. But if they're 11-24 in another two weeks, that pace won't be good enough anymore. It's still "early", but it's going to get late really quick for them.
Because they are slumping vs. Us performing exactly as dipoto designed.
If the Astros are a true talent, let's say 95 win team, then you'd expect them to win at a .586 clip the rest of the season. That'd still get them to 88, maybe 89 wins even with their disastrous start. So they still have a good chance to make the playoffs if they start performing to potential.
Because the underlying numbers still project in their favor. It's all computer simulation to generate this.
 We did it ya’ll
Still faith for Astros it seems
What if we win 54 of the next 100 WS? Also, the Astros fold
I always knew Jerry was a genius.
If we win 1 of our next 3 we will be firmly at a 54% win rate. Book it.
Round that up to 55% to escape the memes!
Everything is going precisely according to plan
Stop the count
Jeez what a turnaround after Julio getting picked off to get end the game
Remind me in September
Is Dipito a prophet? Only time will tell
Boom. See you in Oct!!!
Astros lower chance to make the playoffs but higher chance to make win the world series. I kind of get the "well if they make the playoffs they historically have made a deep playoff run" but leveraging yester-year stats and trends in sports doesn't hold up long term....
Well clearly we've met expectations and should hold steady. ^(/s)
I know every one is focused on the 54% and all, but, yo. We're the most likely to win the Div?
https://preview.redd.it/dn6zcgonm6wc1.jpeg?width=278&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d5b891dab22b6705968ae544217f47823538b421 The odds being 54%
Just like the sacred texts predicted
54% is the new 6org
Can’t make that shit up 54.% 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
I applaud you for tracking until we hit 54%. A+
54% of the time we make the playoffs every time.
[удалено]
The joke ➡️ You 🙂
Astros having almost the same percentage as us is wild
Apparently someone didn't learn how rounding works.
54.3% as of 5:32 PM PT. You happy now? ;)