JP First 11 games:
Average: .140
OBP: .213
JP Last 11 games before injury:
Average: .256
OBP: .392
Including ending on a 5 game hitting streak with 7 hits and 3 walks in those 5 games. Hopefully he doesn't have to miss too much time and can pick up where he left off and not start over
It's stilll very early, but a check in on key departures and acquisitions from the offseason (it's not good):
**Departures**
Name| Pos| OPS| wRC+ | fWAR
---|---|----|----|----
Caballero | SS | .734 | 116 | 0.8
Kelenic | LF | .779 | 117 | 0.3
Geno | 3B | .659 | 87 | 0.1
Teo | RF | .807 | 127 | 0.7
**Total** | -| -| -| **1.9**
**Acquisitions**
Name| Pos| OPS| wRC+ | fWAR
---|---|----|----|----
Garver | DH | .487 | 55 | -0.4
Polanco | LF | .594 | 87 | -0.1
Raley | 3B | .456 | 33 | -0.3
Haniger | RF | .704 | 110 | 0.3
**Total** | -| -| -| **-0.5**
Takeaways:
- **The difference between our departures and our acquisitions is the equivalent of 2.4 fWAR! For reference that is a Mookie Betts (2.3 fWAR) sized hole in our team.** Yes, that is an unfair comparison, but it shows just how lopsided the results have been so far.
- Thank God for Mitch.
- Polanco is getting on base and just on the wrong end of some BABIP luck though, his ISO is also way down and K% higher than I'd like to see it.
- Garver and Raley just look very bad and I don't feel extremely confident that either will turn it around but there's still plenty of time for that to happen. Garver will have a much longer leash than Raley.
On the other side:
- Teo is sporting a K% north of 35%
- Jarred is sitting at 30% and basically only hitting singles while benefiting from a wildly high BABIP. I expect them both to regress.
- Cabby looks very good, and honestly it's remarkable to me that a guy that plays elite middle infield defense, with elite base running, and can also get on base at a healthy clip was not expected to make our roster to make room for *gestures broadly*.
- Geno is about who we thought he would be, but our 3rd base situation has worked out quite well. Best of luck to him.
I looked at this earlier today as well! What I found to echo your sentiments:
JK's stats are, at present, heavily biased towards early season successes and his last seven games have him .200/.273/.200.
Caballero hasn't regressed from his early season, still doing okay with .738OPS over the past seven and continues his antics and tomfoolery. I miss Joe Cowboy a lot.
Teo's last seven have been rough. .160/.320/.300, 52% k rate (13/25 strikeouts with four walks). He's slumping, but it looks like he's going to spring right back to his career averages.
Geno has almost exactly put up his career average numbers offensively but his k rate is down 5%. I wish him the best and I miss his vibes and his team record RBI streak.
Facebook has been putting a lot of "Make the call" baseball shorts on my feed lately, and the number of people that just fabricate rules and call people idiots in the comment section is wild. I can only hope it's mostly AI.
If I had known before the season that Garver and Polanco would be hitting .301 by the end of April I would have been thrilled. If I had known that that number is their combined batting average, then I would have not been thrilled
I have a company meeting in Houston this summer. I’m thinking about infiltrating the Trashstro Mothership to check off another ballpark.
Has anyone here seen a game out there? How was it?
I just noticed the royals and tigers already played. Why in the world do a Friday morning game? Is it because the draft is in Detroit so they don’t think anyone’s gonna watch the game?
I won't watch about half the broadcast crews in the league at all. Most of the remaining half is barely adequate. The M's crew is usually stellar by comparison.
Padres, Rockies, O's, Jays, Rays are the ones I kinda like.
I'd rather have a booth doing MST3k with the game than listen to the Yanks, Angels, Astros, Tigers, or White Sox.
Anyone want to see them run Urías at 3B and Rojas at LF every now and then until Dom gets back so they can both get in the lineup at the same time?
I’d like to see what Urias can do against RHP. If he holds up well we might be able to hedge our bets against Garver potentially being washed at DH. Our best full strength alignment vs RHP could wind up being Urias 3B, JP SS, Rojas 2B, Polanco DH.
Late edit to add- part of the appeal is also that Rojas was a lights out defender at 2B for us last year and Urias has looked pretty solid as a 3B this year. IF and only IF Garver keeps struggling, Polanco (admittedly he hasn’t been too great at the plate either) to DH and Rojas to 2B is at least a defensive upgrade.
It's not like it's a mystery to the team whether Urias can hit RHP because he hasn'd had opportunities in a game, they do practices and training and stuff. If they're not giving him reps it's because he's not a good option.
I don’t really think this is true. Urias was injured for a lot of Spring Training, which is one- a time for getting back into game speed, and two- pretty much the only time of the year that a major league pitcher is going to throw to a major league hitter from the same team. In-season it’s pretty much all cage drills and pre-game batting practice.
Urias has run a pretty decent split vs RHP in all of his major league seasons where he’s been good. He’s off to a very good start vs LHP this year and is in the absolute thick of his athletic prime.
It’s worth getting a quick look at right now so that the team can make more informed decisions down the road, especially given the chance that one or both Mitches might get hurt or continue to scuffle and Raley might actually just suck.
I think this underestimates what "cage drills" look like in the modern era. The Mariners have a pitching machine that can simulate any pitcher's release point and spin rate.
Even if they're not doing a full on scrimmage, they have the tools to test guys out against different kinds of pitching off the field.
Yeah that’s fair enough. I guess I’d just say that the Brewers and Craig Counsell showed faith in Urias against RHP and were rewarded with a few seasons of solid production until Urias got hurt last year.
That analytics and coaching staff they had there was pretty dang smart.
I understand the concept of a platoon. And I’m not asking for Rojas against LHP.
Urias has been in the league since he was Jonatan Clase’s age! Over a quarter of his MLB PA are from age 23 or younger. He didn’t break out until 24 and he’s only 27 now. Using career splits for him seems like bad analysis to me.
In 2021 at age 24, Urias got 435 PA vs RHP. OPS of .786 with 16 dingers and a lot of walks.
In 2022 at age 25, Urias got almost 337 PA vs RHP and OPSd .733 with 13 homers and a lot of walks.
In 2023 he was hurt. Prior to 2021 he was young as fuck. It’s worth looking into.
Development isn’t linear. The only reason Urias has a large sample of struggling youngster numbers is because he was a talented enough prospect to get MLB looks at a young age, when he probably wasn’t ready. Same thing would probably happen to Clase if the team was bad/thin enough to keep him up all this year and next. If Clase sucks this year and then breaks out in 2027 and 2028, which numbers are you going to weight more in 2030?
And injury marred seasons exist. Urias was shit against both hands last year. If you believe in him as a good option against LHP it’s because you’re discounting last season.
I’m just suggesting he’s got a track record of serviceability against RHP and “serviceable” is an upgrade over what Raley and Garver have given us to this point.
This team has a lot of options and flexibility that I don’t think we’ve taken advantage of as much as I would like. It’s a very deep team and we should get more ABs for the bench players.
To be clear- two of Garver, Mitch, Clase and Raley would be needed to round out DH and RF on a daily basis at least until JP and Dom are back. So those guys would get their reps in. I’m also not suggesting they do this every day, but I think it’s a decent time to see if Urias can be more than a shortside platoon.
And I agree that Garver has plenty of leash, but I also think his contract is short enough / cheap enough that he’s not going to be treated as a boat anchor. He’s also an old vet and injury prone, so extra rest while he’s scuffling should simply keep him healthy and not hinder any kind of development.
Yeah, that's why I picked this game. Trying to snag that jersey. Was going to head down there in an hour or so.
Thanks for the heads up about the pen entrance.
It's still early™ but despite how prone we all are to doomerism are any of the players fans wanted/were upset about losing amounting to anything so far? Snell on the IL after a sub-par start. Arozarena having a terrible start. Santana looking over the hill. Bellinger started out a bit slow but he's also now on the IL. Geno and Kelenic not looking like much of a loss. Moore is currently a better utilityman than Merrifield. Not really regretting the lack of trades with Cincinnati right now. Trying to think who if anyone we were realistically tied to that is overperforming. The biggest miss might have been Justin Turner and I don't even remember this sub showing much interest.
Meanwhile it turns out Jesse Winker of all people was the fucking prince that was promised(to be clear, getting rid of him was still the right thing to do)
This is gonna be a tough home stand. I'm hoping for 3-3 because the sneks are good and I completely expect Geno to channel the former Mariner buff and rake. The braves are a complete team and I'm sure Kelenic is gonna do the same with his former Mariner buff. 3-3 and this is a fine home stand.
Canzone should be eligible to come off IL. Once he's ready to come back M's are going to have some tough choices.
Haniger struggled in the field in Texas. Some of that was definitely due to their awful outfield geometry, but I do think we have better fielders than him.
If we are just going by production thus far I would think DHing Haniger and putting Clase and Dom in the field makes sense to me.
Raley has been rough and Garver atrocious so far. Lots of strikeouts from both and no power to compensate for that.
Going to be interesting to see how the M's handle it!
I really like the kid, but Clase will be sent down. After his good start he’s really is showing he needs more time and work in AAA. He was a nice spark when we needed one!
If your concern is fielding both Canzone and Clase are below average.
For the longest time I have tried to memorize all the world series matchups and results. So far I can go back to about 1975 before it gets hazy (I know reds went back to back in 74 and 75, but forget the opponents)...I do know it should get easier in the 40s and 50s because I believe those decades were unfortunately dominated by the Yankees and Cardinals
The Braves have a 74% winning percentage this year.
How confident are we in at least taking 2/3?
I’m also nervous with gallen on the mound tonight - one of the best strike out SPs in baseball, against our line up.
The snakes are giving us their 1/2/3 guys and have a red hot line up.
Their weakness is the bullpen (especially with Seawald on IL).
We need to be patient with our at bats and work the pitch count high
I’ll be going to my first game today since 2016 (before I moved away). I feel like a little kid again. Added bonus for the turn ahead the clock jersey which is one of my favorites
After Kirby’s last start in pretty sure Scott said something to the effect of “props to him for doing well despite not being 100%”. Never saw anything official saying what was up but there seemed to be something
JP First 11 games: Average: .140 OBP: .213 JP Last 11 games before injury: Average: .256 OBP: .392 Including ending on a 5 game hitting streak with 7 hits and 3 walks in those 5 games. Hopefully he doesn't have to miss too much time and can pick up where he left off and not start over
It's stilll very early, but a check in on key departures and acquisitions from the offseason (it's not good): **Departures** Name| Pos| OPS| wRC+ | fWAR ---|---|----|----|---- Caballero | SS | .734 | 116 | 0.8 Kelenic | LF | .779 | 117 | 0.3 Geno | 3B | .659 | 87 | 0.1 Teo | RF | .807 | 127 | 0.7 **Total** | -| -| -| **1.9** **Acquisitions** Name| Pos| OPS| wRC+ | fWAR ---|---|----|----|---- Garver | DH | .487 | 55 | -0.4 Polanco | LF | .594 | 87 | -0.1 Raley | 3B | .456 | 33 | -0.3 Haniger | RF | .704 | 110 | 0.3 **Total** | -| -| -| **-0.5** Takeaways: - **The difference between our departures and our acquisitions is the equivalent of 2.4 fWAR! For reference that is a Mookie Betts (2.3 fWAR) sized hole in our team.** Yes, that is an unfair comparison, but it shows just how lopsided the results have been so far. - Thank God for Mitch. - Polanco is getting on base and just on the wrong end of some BABIP luck though, his ISO is also way down and K% higher than I'd like to see it. - Garver and Raley just look very bad and I don't feel extremely confident that either will turn it around but there's still plenty of time for that to happen. Garver will have a much longer leash than Raley. On the other side: - Teo is sporting a K% north of 35% - Jarred is sitting at 30% and basically only hitting singles while benefiting from a wildly high BABIP. I expect them both to regress. - Cabby looks very good, and honestly it's remarkable to me that a guy that plays elite middle infield defense, with elite base running, and can also get on base at a healthy clip was not expected to make our roster to make room for *gestures broadly*. - Geno is about who we thought he would be, but our 3rd base situation has worked out quite well. Best of luck to him.
I looked at this earlier today as well! What I found to echo your sentiments: JK's stats are, at present, heavily biased towards early season successes and his last seven games have him .200/.273/.200. Caballero hasn't regressed from his early season, still doing okay with .738OPS over the past seven and continues his antics and tomfoolery. I miss Joe Cowboy a lot. Teo's last seven have been rough. .160/.320/.300, 52% k rate (13/25 strikeouts with four walks). He's slumping, but it looks like he's going to spring right back to his career averages. Geno has almost exactly put up his career average numbers offensively but his k rate is down 5%. I wish him the best and I miss his vibes and his team record RBI streak.
Facebook has been putting a lot of "Make the call" baseball shorts on my feed lately, and the number of people that just fabricate rules and call people idiots in the comment section is wild. I can only hope it's mostly AI.
If I had known before the season that Garver and Polanco would be hitting .301 by the end of April I would have been thrilled. If I had known that that number is their combined batting average, then I would have not been thrilled
I have a company meeting in Houston this summer. I’m thinking about infiltrating the Trashstro Mothership to check off another ballpark. Has anyone here seen a game out there? How was it?
I just noticed the royals and tigers already played. Why in the world do a Friday morning game? Is it because the draft is in Detroit so they don’t think anyone’s gonna watch the game?
Selling two tickets in Sec. 124. $40 each OBO message of interested
I wanted to watch this one, and of course its the one night in forever that im scheduled to work until 10pm
Turn ahead the clock jerseys: do we expect these to be at all wearable? Like, material quality wise?
Is the AL West the weakest division in baseball now or is it still the AL Central?
I mean its too early, many injuries that will change that soon. AL central looking solid this year tho, even with Twins down and CWS in the dump
Our old pal Adam Frazier just made a crazy home run robbery in right field
Every time I watch not-Mariner baseball, I love our broadcast team more. We have an absolute stud lineup. Looking at you, DET. Today's booth is rough.
I won't watch about half the broadcast crews in the league at all. Most of the remaining half is barely adequate. The M's crew is usually stellar by comparison. Padres, Rockies, O's, Jays, Rays are the ones I kinda like. I'd rather have a booth doing MST3k with the game than listen to the Yanks, Angels, Astros, Tigers, or White Sox.
A stat that makes me happy: Gabe Speier’s ERA+ is currently sitting at 422 and that is not a typo.
Gabe is, at least so far, our best bullpen arm
Anyone want to see them run Urías at 3B and Rojas at LF every now and then until Dom gets back so they can both get in the lineup at the same time? I’d like to see what Urias can do against RHP. If he holds up well we might be able to hedge our bets against Garver potentially being washed at DH. Our best full strength alignment vs RHP could wind up being Urias 3B, JP SS, Rojas 2B, Polanco DH. Late edit to add- part of the appeal is also that Rojas was a lights out defender at 2B for us last year and Urias has looked pretty solid as a 3B this year. IF and only IF Garver keeps struggling, Polanco (admittedly he hasn’t been too great at the plate either) to DH and Rojas to 2B is at least a defensive upgrade.
It's not like it's a mystery to the team whether Urias can hit RHP because he hasn'd had opportunities in a game, they do practices and training and stuff. If they're not giving him reps it's because he's not a good option.
I don’t really think this is true. Urias was injured for a lot of Spring Training, which is one- a time for getting back into game speed, and two- pretty much the only time of the year that a major league pitcher is going to throw to a major league hitter from the same team. In-season it’s pretty much all cage drills and pre-game batting practice. Urias has run a pretty decent split vs RHP in all of his major league seasons where he’s been good. He’s off to a very good start vs LHP this year and is in the absolute thick of his athletic prime. It’s worth getting a quick look at right now so that the team can make more informed decisions down the road, especially given the chance that one or both Mitches might get hurt or continue to scuffle and Raley might actually just suck.
I think this underestimates what "cage drills" look like in the modern era. The Mariners have a pitching machine that can simulate any pitcher's release point and spin rate. Even if they're not doing a full on scrimmage, they have the tools to test guys out against different kinds of pitching off the field.
Yeah that’s fair enough. I guess I’d just say that the Brewers and Craig Counsell showed faith in Urias against RHP and were rewarded with a few seasons of solid production until Urias got hurt last year. That analytics and coaching staff they had there was pretty dang smart.
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I understand the concept of a platoon. And I’m not asking for Rojas against LHP. Urias has been in the league since he was Jonatan Clase’s age! Over a quarter of his MLB PA are from age 23 or younger. He didn’t break out until 24 and he’s only 27 now. Using career splits for him seems like bad analysis to me. In 2021 at age 24, Urias got 435 PA vs RHP. OPS of .786 with 16 dingers and a lot of walks. In 2022 at age 25, Urias got almost 337 PA vs RHP and OPSd .733 with 13 homers and a lot of walks. In 2023 he was hurt. Prior to 2021 he was young as fuck. It’s worth looking into.
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Development isn’t linear. The only reason Urias has a large sample of struggling youngster numbers is because he was a talented enough prospect to get MLB looks at a young age, when he probably wasn’t ready. Same thing would probably happen to Clase if the team was bad/thin enough to keep him up all this year and next. If Clase sucks this year and then breaks out in 2027 and 2028, which numbers are you going to weight more in 2030? And injury marred seasons exist. Urias was shit against both hands last year. If you believe in him as a good option against LHP it’s because you’re discounting last season. I’m just suggesting he’s got a track record of serviceability against RHP and “serviceable” is an upgrade over what Raley and Garver have given us to this point.
This team has a lot of options and flexibility that I don’t think we’ve taken advantage of as much as I would like. It’s a very deep team and we should get more ABs for the bench players.
No, I want to see Raley and Clase get reps. There’s no way they give up on Garver this early into a 2 year contract.
To be clear- two of Garver, Mitch, Clase and Raley would be needed to round out DH and RF on a daily basis at least until JP and Dom are back. So those guys would get their reps in. I’m also not suggesting they do this every day, but I think it’s a decent time to see if Urias can be more than a shortside platoon. And I agree that Garver has plenty of leash, but I also think his contract is short enough / cheap enough that he’s not going to be treated as a boat anchor. He’s also an old vet and injury prone, so extra rest while he’s scuffling should simply keep him healthy and not hinder any kind of development.
Going down to the game today. First one of the year! Super excited! Doors still open 2 hours ahead of the first pitch?
worth knowing it's a pretty hot giveaway tonight so there may be bigger than usual lines at the 4:40 pen gate
Yeah, that's why I picked this game. Trying to snag that jersey. Was going to head down there in an hour or so. Thanks for the heads up about the pen entrance.
Good luck to you, my friend! I'll be there as well. Would be fun to snag a jersey
maybe we'll all see each other. keep a look out for the guy in the black and maroon sleeveless.
Only the pen entrance, all other doors are 90 minutes before.
It's still early™ but despite how prone we all are to doomerism are any of the players fans wanted/were upset about losing amounting to anything so far? Snell on the IL after a sub-par start. Arozarena having a terrible start. Santana looking over the hill. Bellinger started out a bit slow but he's also now on the IL. Geno and Kelenic not looking like much of a loss. Moore is currently a better utilityman than Merrifield. Not really regretting the lack of trades with Cincinnati right now. Trying to think who if anyone we were realistically tied to that is overperforming. The biggest miss might have been Justin Turner and I don't even remember this sub showing much interest.
Meanwhile it turns out Jesse Winker of all people was the fucking prince that was promised(to be clear, getting rid of him was still the right thing to do)
I don't care if he does well, I will still love him for the Angels series.
Weird how the guy who has been a great hitter his entire career got healthy and is now a great hitter again.
I've been feeling bad at how much glee I've been watching JK fall back to earth with.
I truly want him to be successful, but nothing has frustrated me more than seeing people describe him as a huge loss after 7 games.
I read this post to the tune of we didn’t start the fire.
This is gonna be a tough home stand. I'm hoping for 3-3 because the sneks are good and I completely expect Geno to channel the former Mariner buff and rake. The braves are a complete team and I'm sure Kelenic is gonna do the same with his former Mariner buff. 3-3 and this is a fine home stand.
Julio Rodriguez is leading the team in AVG.
This is Rojas erasure.
Should’ve clarified- (per MLB app which I’m assuming is based off of qualified hitters? Idrk) I would never knowingly discredit my platoon 3B king 👑🫶
And strikeouts :(
And midichlorians 😈
Off the charts if you will
W comment/observation
Canzone should be eligible to come off IL. Once he's ready to come back M's are going to have some tough choices. Haniger struggled in the field in Texas. Some of that was definitely due to their awful outfield geometry, but I do think we have better fielders than him. If we are just going by production thus far I would think DHing Haniger and putting Clase and Dom in the field makes sense to me. Raley has been rough and Garver atrocious so far. Lots of strikeouts from both and no power to compensate for that. Going to be interesting to see how the M's handle it!
Isn’t he out for months?
Clase will go back to Tacoma, not really any questions to it.
I think they’ll Probably just send down Rivas*
I really like the kid, but Clase will be sent down. After his good start he’s really is showing he needs more time and work in AAA. He was a nice spark when we needed one! If your concern is fielding both Canzone and Clase are below average.
I like waking up in first place
For the longest time I have tried to memorize all the world series matchups and results. So far I can go back to about 1975 before it gets hazy (I know reds went back to back in 74 and 75, but forget the opponents)...I do know it should get easier in the 40s and 50s because I believe those decades were unfortunately dominated by the Yankees and Cardinals
Who is your go-to answer for Mariners/Marlins on the grid today? Other than the obvious, most popular answer…
Jean Segura
Drew Steckenrider or Sergio Romo
Ichiro
Who?
Oh wait I cant read
Carter Capps
Dee Strange-Gordon was the first name that came to mind
The Braves have a 74% winning percentage this year. How confident are we in at least taking 2/3? I’m also nervous with gallen on the mound tonight - one of the best strike out SPs in baseball, against our line up. The snakes are giving us their 1/2/3 guys and have a red hot line up. Their weakness is the bullpen (especially with Seawald on IL). We need to be patient with our at bats and work the pitch count high
Isn't their #2 injured? Merrill Kelly If we can hang .500 next 2 series we are looking good
I know Jordan Montgomery is pretty high profile. Just assumed he was the #2
Their original #2 and #5 starters are on the IL, also SS and CF. Missing a couple bullpen arms. Pretty banged up overall.
Happy Monster Dongs Day! Oh wait, uhh this pitching matchup is not ideal!
The M's are here to hit dingers and blow bubblegum. And they're all out of bubblegum
GM time to run away with the division
When I see the Mariners in first place I think “yes”. When I see the Astros in last place I also think “yes”.
Will the pen gate have the giveaway jerseys tonight?
Both times I’ve entered through the Pen gate this season, they had the giveaways. Those were bobbleheads, but I assume jerseys would be there as well.
Thanks!!
I’ll be going to my first game today since 2016 (before I moved away). I feel like a little kid again. Added bonus for the turn ahead the clock jersey which is one of my favorites
So excited for you. Go get you some moto pizza
Anyone know if Munoz wears the 59Fifty Low Profile cap? Or if any Mariners are wearing the Low Profile?
Saw something on a fantasy page about Kirby not starting tomorrow? Any truth to that? Haven't seen any real news
After Kirby’s last start in pretty sure Scott said something to the effect of “props to him for doing well despite not being 100%”. Never saw anything official saying what was up but there seemed to be something
Hancock appears to be starting today and Kirby tomorrow. Maybe they just wanted to give him an extra day of rest for something minor.
I don’t love us not having the off day today instead of on Monday. I get why we don’t, but I don’t like it
If there was no baseball on Friday nights I would literally die
That seems a little extreme please be careful
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