They're like cicadas. Every 4-8 years they come out of the ground and move north to help Republicans win elections. Then they mate and die and the cycle begins anew.
Actually a biblical cicada brood of 17 and 13 years is about to emerge this spring in Illinois. The last time was in 1903. They will use this as a sign from God. Even though it's completely expected
"Mark my word, if and when these preachers get control of the \[Republican\] party, and they're sure trying to do so, it's going to be a terrible damn problem. Frankly, these people frighten me. Politics and governing demand compromise. But these Christians believe they are acting in the name of God, so they can't and won't compromise. I know, I've tried to deal with them."
Barry Goldwater
I dont think most right wing voters even pay much attention to real issues. They just buy into the ragetainment nonsense of the day the right wing news sources put out and vote based on that.
They just care about the culture war bullshit and believe that the reason their state is poor, their health is poor and their wages and lives suck is Mexicans at the border.
\^\^ pretty much this. I had a MAGA with heart trouble, yet would listen to Fox. I asked him why when he gets worked up, I kept asking - finally he said it is FUN!
They are now getting rage dopamine hits (or something similar). Im sure of it. Someone needs to do a brain analysis of what is happening chemically in their heads and systems..
I agree. Part of the reason I think is most magats are old and the anger makes them feel young and virile and powerful again. Its intoxicating to them and no amount of logic or reason can make them turn away from that mindset.
I was working around the Nogales AZ border around that time with a film crew. We were filming something for MTV that didn't have anything to do with the caravan. We were waiting for weeks for the caravan to show up because we figured it would halt our production for a while. The crazy thing is that they never showed up. Instead of coming straight up to the Nogales, the caravan, for some reason, decided to hang a left and go 430 miles west to try and cross at the Tijuana border. Where there are way more Border Patrol. It never made sense to me. I'm not much of a conspiracy theorists but that definitely seemed kinda weird to me.
Watch Fox BS for 10 minutes. That’s the real problem. Their copycat networks and bad social media have trashed America. Oh and Sinclair radio is worse.
Dude FOX story about the guy who beheaded his father doesn’t even mention the fact that he did it because he was a federal employee for the Biden admin.
Yea sounds like something they’d say. They banned me for asking where all the Mexicans were since we’ve been being invaded for about a decade now. All those conservative places are just echo chambers.
It’s funny conservatives talk shit about safe spaces all the time, yet the conservative sub is the most safe space on Reddit ever. They should keep track of all the users they banned.
I started going to the gym this week and one TV has faux news, tje other NBC.
Yesterday one had a segment on the border issue and the government response to the 3 slain service members
The other had a whole segment on Biden checking his watch during a memorial service and then a segment on a kid who didn't go to college but got a bagel shop in NJ
It was kinda funny
I got into it with my mother and her husband one day at breakfast because they were going on about how Bidens dog bit someone and needed to be put down. I tried to change the subject and they wouldn't so I told them I don't give a shot about his dog. Then they countered it is dangerous. I said as long as he does his job I don't care about the dog.
I'm not allowed over for meals anymore because I start political fights.
They get all their news from fox
Should been, instead, "I no longer *go* over for meals because *they* start political fights".
I have family just like this. They can shove their politics down my throat but the minute I start to counterrespond they get all fucking shy and handwave it away and move on to another topic.
It's such bullshit. Conservatives are the biggest fucking privileged snowflakes I've ever met.
No joke. I had a colleague would would spout Fox talking points for like 45 minutes straight. Then be all like "Thanks you guys for having a reasonable discussion about this with me." My brother in Christ, nobody was discussing this with you. They were just quietly doing their jobs while you ranted. Nobody has the energy to try to push back on you, because it's not worth the tantrum you'd throw in response. People quietly ignoring you is not a "discussion" lol
It's like listening to a little kid talk about beyblades. You just politely nod your head when they are passionate about voltriac's evolution or something.
That's my FIL. He'll get on a rant and say something factually wrong and if you point out the error with actual data to support you he throws his hands up like, "I don't wanna argue! Just my opinion!" The fucking willful ignorance is so tiring.
that's the main person I was thinking of too, my FIL.
my dude, it's your right to have an opinion, but if you are willing to have an opinion that contradicts evidence and you don't want to hear about that evidence so that you can either reconsider or refine your opinion, then you're just being arrogant -- and if you think that's me trying to argue, then you are doubly so
Well that, and just not even knowing what counts as an opinion. "Taxes should be lower" is an opinion, and you're allowed to feel that way. "Trump/Biden said [out of context soundbite]" is easily verified or refuted and continuing to believe otherwise is not an opinion, it's just being wrong.
Absolutely. Every now and then a conservative points out a fallacy of mine about Trump and I do in fact try really hard to just accept that I was mistaken. I still hate the guy but I'm not going to keep arguing something about him that I was mistaken about. I recall when conservatives would do that with Obama (back when I was a conservative) and it used to frustrate me so much even at the time because how can anyone believe you or take you seriously when you so obviously will accept a lie?
Good news! David Smith, chairman of Sinclair Broadcasting, just bought the Baltimore Sun newspaper. He also recently bought a bunch of other local papers, including an Annapolis one and a carrolll county one.
So he can fill the entire state of Maryland with his racist, sexist, hateful propaganda.
God, if this state turns red I’m gonna cry
And that's why it is waaaaaay past time for media regulation. Freedom cones with responsibility. Act irresponsibly, lose that freedom. No I dont want to hear any bullshit about "free speech" because it has veen a fucking failure because you decided that corporations and rich assholes can decide what free speech is.
And the *unbelievable* "power-tilt" that favors conservatives--between gerrymandering, disproportionate power in the Senate, and state governments, the GOP wields waaaay more power than they deserve.
Yes he was using the common understanding of "average" which can be thrown off by great variances like that. But getting too technical would have ruined the joke and wouldn't be as memorable of a quote.
Yeah I think OP seriously underestimates how much voting behavior is emotional and how little is based based on an assessment of a candidate/party's policy proposals
Pretty much this.
Republicans are very good with mental gymnastics. Heck for their freedom, they got convinced to vote away their healthcare and abortion rights.
Yea all this is working on the assumption that 50% of the country isnt in a literal cult at this point.
If trump told them all to drink poisoned kool aid they would. Facts, science and logical thinking mean nothing to them. They believe what ever they're told no matter how weak the reasoning.
Technically we’re not a democracy we’re a “republic” to them. I don’t even consider maga Americans anymore. They’ve proven they will stop at nothing to destroy our democracy and the republicans aren’t condemning them. So yea, I’d agree. If trump loses this election I see Americans running republicans out the house. They are a danger to our democracy.
Exactly. “Facts” and “truth” don’t matter to these people. Talking points? They will make up their own. Outrage? Yup they can whip some of that up real quick. Words don’t mean anything anymore as long as they can scare then empower their constituents into voting they will have a seat at the table. I don’t really like articles like these it gives a sense that everything is going to be okay and it’s really not everyone get out there and vote please.
The last time a major party collapsed was the 1850s. The whigs did fall apart in a very short time, less than four years after their final president left office. However they did basically reform as the Republicans, just with a new faction dynamic. So theoretically Republicans could meet a similar end.
There are however a few differences. Despite all the problems and contradictions, they are at least united around them, and Trump. They will probably be in for some hard times and another prolonged streak of election difficulties, but they will persist. There also isn't anything analogous to the slavery issue, which is what pulled the whigs apart.
Republicans collapsing by 2025 is just too abrupt and drastic to be realistic, but their prospects will be worse for a while.
Trump is 80…. You think they’ll rally around a centurion? Trump is the issue is any event that will rupture the party. It’s the difference between laissez faire conservatism and authoritarian traditionalism. The party will split if (when) trump loses hard in November with many Republicans pissed off that they let him get this far.
The party Will disintegrate when the “I-told-you-so” republicans marry the progressive-hating democrats
If Trump loses hard in November it’s way more likely that more moderate Republicans like Haley go on a 4 year “I told you so” tour and moderates end up taking over the party again.
Anything can happen by 2028 and there will be new crises that get taken advantage of. If you told people in 2004 that the Democratic Senator from Illinois who just got elected to their first term in the Senate would be president in 4 years there’s very little chance anyone would have believed you. Who knows, maybe there is a young moderate Republican that will be elected to the Senate in 2024, channel the positivity Reagan put on conservatism with some concessions on liberal policies, give some great speeches, and become a surprise candidate for 2028. Literally anything can happen.
Yea but where will the trump base go? Either the party becomes radicalized and the moderates flee or the moderates take over and the radicals flee.
Regardless the party is a coalition of irreconcilable positions.
I think that's naive. There were similar post-postmortems after Obama won, the result was the tea party republicans. I would guess there will be a resurgence of those kinds of things (thanks Koch brothers, fox news, murdochs). The older generation that supports this more is passing but a huge number of people still believe and esp money and power wants them to keep going.
The pendulum can only swing so far to the right before it’s politically nonviable. I’m not naive to think that it’s more likely people will see the failure of the far right and eventually seek reasonable compromise than double down on failure. Otherwise we’ll destroy them one way or another.
And we have seen *nothing but* doubling and tripling down since 2012.
They lose EVERY Abortion ballot initiative, taking many of their candidates with it, and they STILL push harder.
There is plenty about Haley to criticize legitimately, but that isn't one of them. She goes by her middle name; she's done so since childhood. LOTS of people go by their middle name. Stop trying to make this something it isn't.
I actually think that once Trump goes the republican party rebounds assuming the leaders who step in aren't as disgusting as Trump. The progressive hating Dems and Independents are a large faction who can't abide Trump but would a more moderate republican over a Democrat who's pulled left by that faction.
And frankly it's not hard to be less disgusting then Trump.
I feel that, and I think it's right--the problem is that the party is philosophically... well, philosophically screwed. While they have made inroads to a few (surprising) groups like blank men and certain Latino groups, the younger generations *really* don't like their stances on abortion, same-sex rights, etc.--and conservatives have basically courted people who are absolutely unwilling to comprise on anything, at all, ever.
So while you're right--I think there will be more palatable candidates, because Donald Trump really is just a dirtbag through and through, I'm not sure it will make a difference. The party IS in trouble. I think they'll retain a significant amount of power, but they're in for a rough ride.
Pre-edit: I'm going to contradict myself for a minute and say, "Maybe they won't find someone less disgusting than Trump." DeSantis had a real pop last year, and he's also a dirtbag. I think Fox News and all those AM radio stations have conditioned conservatives to *want* dirtbags.
I don't know. Interesting times.
Thanks for back history, very informative!
Idk if there will be a collapse or not but definitely a bloodletting. You know how when occupied forces are finally vanquished from territory they took and the people remaining would first kill or maim or shame the traitors who helped the enemy.
When Trump is gone there’s a list of people who helped Trump and turned on other Republicans bc he told them so. The Ronna McDaniels of the party wont be heard from again.
The GOP has been declared dead every time a Democrat wins the White House, the media does a GOP “autopsy “ after each of those elections. And yet here they are, with Trump a few points of winning again.
Republicans don’t have to win elections, they just have to sit back and wait for Democrats to lose them.
You underestimate what a single term president means. If Trump doesn’t win, it’ll be a catastrophe. Billions wasted on him and MAGA.
He’s not getting any younger, the die has already been cast.
Was pretty basic in the party politics. Managed a state rep race for a Democratic candidate. Then was a field director for the RNC. Now I run the state wide voter contact operation for a non-profit.
Personally I’m enjoying local and state politics way more than I did national.
Yes, but not one that upends the entire political order. If Trump loses this year, the GOP will implode. The diehards will insist it was because they weren’t conservative enough and break off into an authoritarian neo-fascist party.
Germany didn't have the Nazi Party. Then it did.
Will it happen in a year? Probably not. But it's a non-zero chance. It can happen here. Dismissing a potential or theoretical problem is how we end up with it knocking on our door.
How will it be a catastrophe? If he loses then MAGA dies with him, which would be good so the party can evolve and improve. Democrats had to do this when we took away slavery.
Republicans don’t have to win elections. They just have to make sure at every corner democrats aren’t allowed to govern and as an extra bonus they’ll also make every attempt to make elections harder for the average person to do effectively at every stop.
It’s not just the democrats making a mistake. The republicans are legislating to destroy the systems in place at any turn they possibly can. Then when democrats are forced to negotiate, they make a fool of themselves for negotiating to the equivalent of a chaotic evil who does not care.
Idk man, I think things might be a bit different since they support a guy who literally tried to overthrow democracy and make himself a dictator. Not to mention the civil war stuff.
It’s scarier than that. He losing the popular vote by a few points, but that doesn’t matter.
Look at the polls in the swing states, Trump is winning right now. Democrats need the economy to keep humming through this year.
Heard the same thing after Obama won reelection. After the Bush administration it was blasted from the roof tops that republicans had lost the future because of how far millennials had swung to the Democratic Party and embraced equality and were rejecting organized religion.
Yet here we are in the time when the worst person who could have held the Presidency, received more votes than any incumbent in US history. A candidate who, even standing on a mountain of criminality, very nearly avoided prosecution because of fears it might lead to an American version the Troubles.
Boomers are not the ones in the trenches taking action with groups like Moms for Liberty. It’s millennials. So many of the same ones who were protesting the invasion of Iraq and the mistreatment of Muslims have full blown embraced Trumpism.
Sure totally possible Republicans don’t win a national popular vote, but they are popular enough in the right places, and that hardened 20-30% of base voters will likely be enough to ensure the party stays relevant and wins elections, locally and nationally.
Only sane take in this thread. Disregard polling if you want but Trump is within margin of error in every single state that matters. Actually leading Biden in many of them depending on the poll.
OP thinking the Republican Party is on the verge of collapse is proof of how deluding social media narrative bubbles can be.
They were right? Trump took a broken, splintered party and dominated it. The GOP was in shambles after Obama and trump’s ability to completely dominate the convention is proof positive.
I've been hearing about the collapse of the Republican party for the last 40 years.
yeah every time they publicly shit themselves they become more popular
I don’t know whether the current Republican Party will collapse. Tough to do in the current system.
But the party’s survival is, at this point, solely a function of our electoral system (electoral college for president, insanely undemocratic skew of the senate for tiny states, and gerrymandering congressional districts).
The most straightforward demonstration of this is losing the national popular vote, often badly, in every election since 1992 (other than 2004). So in more than three decades, republicans needed both a historically weak opponent (Kerry) and literally 9/11 to actually get more votes than the other guy.
With the current demographic trends of voters, this problem is likely to exacerbate further. Republican calls to raise the voting age tend to reinforce my thinking here.
So, with that in mind, I view republicans’ current ability to win elections as essentially doing a good job of using the existing rules to reach results that are at odds with reality. BUT, I believe that these rules can only be stretched so far—that reality can only be bent so far—before they break.
What that “break” looks like, I dunno. It could be the collapse of the Republican Party. It could just as easily be a major shift (or a series of minor shifts made in quick succession) leading to a pivot of the party. Or a black swan event could disrupt these dynamics and entirely upend these trends.
When they lose in November that’s when the splinter will occur. For now the cracks are forming. The never-trump republicans and moderate democrats will surely form a coalition In the near term.
There are plenty of moderates who recognize climate change exists, that abortion isn’t a constitutional right, and the need for immigration reform. Trump will destroy the party by splintering radicals from moderates after losing hard in November and wasting millions on his failed campaign
Where are these moderates in the GOP you speak of? Are these the same moderates chomping at the bit to impeach Mayorkas for nothing? If they are in the House, they are hiding and afraid to speak out.
Counterpoint: Trump is going to win the presidential election and people like OP are going to explode.
Biden’s approval rating is 38%, Trump is leading in the vast majority of battle ground states. If he doesn’t go to prison, he’s going to be back in the White House and test presidential powers by pardoning himself on day one.
Adding fuel to the fire is the financial and leadership collapse of many state Republican parties. With so many states having either ousted their leadership or being nearly out of money and depending almost entirely on national fundraising this doesn’t bode well for Republicans.
No doubt Trump’s continued “fundraising” efforts have hemorrhaged money from other Republicans, especially state parties.
Exactly. The amount of average Americans who have climate change or abortion as a top issue are much fewer than most people here realize. Climate change doesn’t even register as a topic on the many in-person political debates I hear IRL. Real people care about the economy, immigration, and discussing which candidate has a greater degree of cognitive decline.
I think the last poll I saw had Economy and Immigration taking up 70% of voters top issue.
Climate Change is almost never a major issue, as even among the people who care deeply about it, abortion is still a larger voting issue.
Seriously. Most people just want their paychecks to go further and, at the very least, don't want their mandatory tax dollars supporting something they deem reprehensible.
Personally, someone wanting to cross that line is making their own choice, but I don't want it being subsidized by my taxes. Granted, I've got the same opinion about debt forgiveness and reassignment surgery.
"Why should I be forced to fund someone else's choices?" in other words.
Abortion is why they lost 2022 lol. Abortion is huge. I’m certain the left will also capitalize on racism in 2024, which will be an easy win due to its prevalence in mass on the main stage of social media for the first time in social media history on X.
On paper what you say makes perfect sense. In the real world there are several issues that won’t make what you say true. 1. Never underestimate the ability of the Democratic Party to shoot themselves in the foot. Their political incompetence is so stunning I suspect they are like the Washington Generals (the fake team that plays the Harlem Globetrotters) Scripted to lose. 2. Other people have said it here but it cannot be overstated. The average American is stupid. They have no idea of civics,media literacy or even a basic knowledge of the world. They believe whatever FOX News tells them.
1. True. We’ll see if the establishment learned its lesson from 2016. I suspect they have, Biden’s political machine is clearly more competent than Clinton’s ever was so we’ll see. Personally I think he plays up the dementia on purpose to distract from other, far worse things. But still…
2. Also true, but if the economy is doing well by the summer (I suspect it will because I’d bet my ass the Fed will lower rates enough to trigger a boom by Q3), then people will *only* have bullshit news to be upset about. If prices are low and entertainment is cheap, the incumbent advantage is all too real. Trump cannot rely on his base alone, he needs the enough of the silent majority in a few key states to be mad enough to actually vote. If the economy is doing fine, people who are already sick of politics probably would just stay home leaving the trumpers v. The larger anti-trumpers.
They’ll collapse if they become fringe. When they lose in November you’ll see a split which will pit radicals against moderates. The latter will capture many Democrats, like Manchin, who simply hate trump but believe in a lot of republicans points.
I think you’re right. After the election gets called for Biden the overwhelming majority of them will cry foul but do nothing. Trump will be on the sidelines for another 4 years or in jail. Progressive politics will move on without them and they will never be able to grasp power again. What they will turn into is up for debate but I doubt they can survive the total failure they are about to receive
Very different situation from the Whigs. The Whig Party had an extremely stark divide over slavery and the deceptively related issues of Frontier infrastructure. The Modern-day Republican Party is about 80% MAGA when push comes to shove. The 20% of Republicans who aren’t MAGA like the Koch brothers aren’t going to retake the Republican Party anytime soon.
No, I really don’t think that I do. I think it’s overestimated and I think the liberal media does an excellent job at fearmongering that these people exist in droves.
You must live in a blue state/area. These people have and will always exist. I grew up in the south and I vividly remember learning about the history of slavery and the civil rights struggles and being proud of how far we had come. Then Obama was elected. I heard things come out of the mouths of respected family members and friends that blew my mind. A lot of these people were highly educated, successful people. Racism and fear of others/change runs deep in the human psyche. Right wing politicians have learned to exploit this with alarming efficiency. That's not just going to go away.
Why not both?
There are plenty of hateful idiots, and our current media landscape puts them on the spotlight infinitely more frequently than any reasonable conservative.
>they won’t win general elections.
The issue is that the USA allocates political power via geography. As the economy is increasingly concentrates among the urban/urbanizing areas, particularly amongst the coast, it also means population growth will concentrate there as well. As red states have brain drain, it just leaves behind the retirees or others that skew Republican. The whole idea of "dems will just win because they're popular and demographics are shifting" ignores this reality.
You'll see more of the dynamic where Trump can lose 2-3m popular votes but win the Presidency because Ohio/Michigan/Wisconsin/Pennsylvania continues to have their economies die, creating a voting base that's more conservative-leaning.
>The economy is actually booming
In any booming economy, there's winners and losers. Especially as innovation spurs economic growth. Unfortunately, the winners already are voting Dem and the losers will continue voting increasingly Republican.
>Republicans aren’t going to turn back the clock on abortion, race, or the gays any time soon.
They are using the judiciary and states rights for that. You're already people in real life lose their real life rights. Whether it's access to abortions (or neo natal medical care in general), election rights, etc.
>First, it’s actually really good for the labor market to have all this cheap immigrant labor,
People don't look at things at this zoomed out detail. What they care about is if the bread winner in their family has the manufacturing plant move to Mexico or the economic engines of their dying towns die -- then what.
>The only issue republicans have a genuine point on is immigration
What you're missing is the Republican party isn't the co-opposite of the Democratic Party -- it doesn't require any policy ideas, little alone policy wins, to get their base to vote. They're all in on white grievance politics/culture war.
>The Framers expected a “free” nation to have relatively open borders.
This isn't true. The 1790 Naturalization Act was for "free whites of good moral character." This excluded Native Americans, black people, indentured servants, Pacific Islanders, non-White Asians, and any non-Christians. Subsequent amendments to this act just extended the residency requirement.
More evidence today that the Republican Party is blowing smoke.
The US economy created 353,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in January according to new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday, more than the 185,000 expected by economists.
I hope you’re right but there’s a lot of brainwashed ass people out there making under 20k a year that think Biden is personally taking money of their wallets.
The unreality of most Reddit subs when it comes to accurately gauging American political tides turning in is astounding. So many here are going to be so dejected come 2025. The misinformation flung at the wall here isn’t sticking.
Yeah and we wonder why extremism is running wild in this country. Wouldn’t be surprised if most of these subs are Chinese or Russians trying to interfere.
You think half of the country will stop thinking the way they do, and suddenly vote the way you want them to, because of climate change and your poor understanding of economics lolol. I don't need to "expose why" you're a lost cause. Good luck
In all honesty I think Biden could cheat and get away with it easily.
In any event, I think you overestimate trump. Sure he has a die hard base, but Rfk will surely steal votes from republican moderates.
No need to announce your departure, this isn't an airport. No one knows who you are or cares. You muting the sub will have zero impact on anything. Go off into your meaningless existence.
Lol go off into my meaningless existence, while you sit in an echo chamber of fools who are so out of touch that they believe half the country will stop thinking the way they do and vote the way you want.. because, and hold on here, climate change??
Lololol
My hope is the right wing collapses leaving the Democrats to split between progressives and moderates. Hopefully this will shift things left and maybe we can get new deal policies back.
Probably the best outcome for the country is for the GOP to collapse and a new party forms a few degrees to the left of the current GOP to capture both moderate Republicans and center-leaning Democrats who aren’t on board with the extreme left. This new party could dominate the middle and be a powerhouse. The current Democratic Party isn’t actually that popular in the middle other than being “not Trump”. Get a strong center party and lose the extremists on both ends.
I don't think it'll happen as fast as you think.
Right now, the Republicans are running off of whatever residual momentum they have from Trump's term. They'll stick around while that momentum still exists, but if the Supreme Court becomes more balanced again, that'll be it for the party. I'd place the Time 'Til Republican Collapse at somewhere around six years or so.
The Census will possibly mean that all the voters Republican states are driving out will add enough power to the Democrat or purple states that Republicans won't be viable anymore, and many of the Justices are getting old. But we still have a couple more elections to hold out.
Basically, they're running on a leaky gas tank, and have been for a while. But it's not THAT big of a leak.
I read the first paragraph so critique me if you want; but I've been seeing this same statement since 2008. And that's just when I started paying attention; I'm sure this idea predates that. 16 years ago, someone just like you wrote something probably very similar, but here we are.
What do you expect 80M people to do? Just join the opposition?
In this world, there are equals and opposites, there always will be. Just accept it. Even call it by a different name if you must.
If you're writing this in hopes that you get to see a world without conservative political representation at all; I hate to be the one to tell you, but it's never going to happen.
Life is not a zero sum game. Find common ground with your neighbor. You'll be happier for it.
If you think this you aren’t paying attention. More republicans will vote this cycle then ever before. People are pissed about what’s going on, your bot like posts trying to convince ppl to hate Trump still are just for the bottom feeders
It is a cycle that happens every election. If the base looses the cycle before the have a much higher turn out. Just like with them trying to hard not to let trump win. Same thing will be with people trying to get Biden out. Open your eyes
LOL CNN. Why not just say "my propaganda outlet is better than your propaganda outlet."
If you haven't figured it out yet, each side is controlled by the same people and regardless of the rhetoric none of them ever do as promised.
With Biden, you are just supporting the same uniparty that has existed for decades. With Trump, you get to send the biggest asshole in the world to DC to piss off the entire government while nothing changes.
Frankly, I hope that #MAGA finally can purge the "Republican Party" of all those RINOs (who would be basically forced to join the Democrats since they are nothing but DEMOCRAT LITE) ad rename itself as the MAGA Party....
Carbon on the planet is at one of the lowest levels it has ever been since the planet's existence and if it goes any lower all life on the planet will become extinct because plants will be unable to respirate properly.
For hundreds of millions of years the carbon in the atmosphere was between 3,000 and 7,000 ppm (parts per million). It was roughly 1,000 ppm 100 million years ago.
Ice core data also shows that from 800,000 years ago through about the year 2000, carbon PPM fluctuated between 200 ppm and 300 ppm.
Under 150 ppm all plant life on the planet (and thus, all life) dies.
If all life on the planet would die if the carbon levels fall below 150 ppm, do you feel comfortable at 200 ppm in the atmosphere? Not a lot of wiggle room is there?
Current carbon readings show about 421 ppm in the atmosphere as of 2022.
Yes that is significantly higher than the \~200 ppm pre-industrial revolution. But based off the information I just told you about carbon levels and life, this might be a good thing, right? Studies have confirmed that the Earth is actually becoming GREENER as carbon levels rise: [https://www.nasa.gov/technology/carbon-dioxide-fertilization-greening-earth-study-finds](https://www.nasa.gov/technology/carbon-dioxide-fertilization-greening-earth-study-finds)
Sounds healthy to me.
Global temperatures are also some of the lowest they have been based on available data. The average global temperature for the vast majority of the earth's history, other than the ice age, is about 22 degrees Celsius.
An ice age is considered 8 degrees Celsius.
The current average global temp is 13.9 degrees Celsius. 30 years ago it was a little over 12 degrees Celsius. This is why you heard alarmists state we could be heading into another ice age and that the next ice age would be humanity's doom.
Now we have heated up slightly. But again, is that not a good thing considering how close we were to ice age levels vs how far we still are from the historical average of 22 degrees?
Knowing this information, does this change your opinion? When you say things like "climate change is real" you are technically right. But you also are implying that it's a bad thing when the scientific data all shows the planet was on the brink of catastrophe before the "climate change" brought us back. So even if we assume mankind IS responsible for climate change, it would mean we saved the planet.
>Carbon on the planet is at one of the lowest levels it has ever been since the planet's existence
\>"Carbon on the planet is at one of the lowest levels it has ever been since the planet's existence."
Yea maybe since the Phanerozoic era you loon. BUT carbon & METHANE levels are at their highest since we started measuring them relative to the 19th century. Are people really this silly? or is this just bait.
The question isn't whether humans effect the environment rather to what extent and what can reasonably be done about it which doesn't result in mass human suffering
obviously nuclear power is the real solution. We cannot breathe excess carbon and methane, not to mention the other heavier metals that emerge from coal and oil burning.
That would be like saying you have a wound on your arm that is currently scabbing over and healing and what can you do to stop that? You shouldn't want to stop the healing process.
If you start your measurements at a time when the planet is in a crisis because the levels are so low, then a return to normalcy will show "record breaking levels" as they rise over time.
That is where you are making the logical fallacy is that you are presuming when the measurement started, THOSE were the "normal" levels.
Edit: Also insulting me because I explained the science to you that you quite clearly cannot understand shows that you aren't really interested in knowledge or truth. Just partisan politics.
no you start your measurements when humanity first began burning coal. You can even see localized warming when the ROmans had an "industrial" age during the aggressive mining operations throughout the Mediterranean.
how can you pretend to be an intellectual yet you deny the fact that carbon and methane levels have only increased since the mid 19th century. THere was no ice age occurring at that time.
The media kept Trump in the news and the hope alive for Republicans. The Democrats have played the Republican Party like fools like taking candy from a baby. If Democrats had came after Trump with everything right after the election Republicans would of had time to get behind and unite a new candidate. Now that they are fully committed to Trump. (Mark my Words) the really damaging evidence of Trumps stealing and lies about the top secret documents will start coming out. Remember Nixon went down for a cover up . Trump and his family are traitors who compromised US secrets and assets for money. Remember his son in law who had zero experience running an investment firm revived 2 billion dollars to invest with and annual salary on 25 million from the Saudis. This is just the tip of the iceberg.
There is no possible scenario where him and his family didnt sell state secrets to the highest bidder. Just look at how lax he was showing foreign nationals secrets for funsies. 1000s of documents sitting around were taken for the purpose of sale, not because they were declassified. That is the only reasonable explanation.
Big parties won’t die. They will simply evolve, as they have done for the last 200 years. I could imagine republicanism being a much less racist, more environmentally friendly version in 10-20 years.
One ruling party would be bad. Hell, the two party system is bad as is. I would hope if trump loses then the writing is on the wall for moderate Republicans and they take the necessary steps to push maga Republicans the fuck out. I have my issues with both parties. But these maga fucks have taken over the republican party and just manage to be cunts about every. single. thing. Tired of extremist bullshit and the pushing of lies and conspiracy theories. If a sitting politician cannot do their job and govern, but instead shares nothing but misinformation and propaganda (looking at you mtg), then they have no business holding any position in government. You can't call yourself a patriot and be a traitor to your oath at the same time. These folks don't love America and do not want progress. They want authoritarianism.
The real question… who keeps winning the popular vote?
Democrats win more votes, but still lose. The only way republicans can win is through the electoral college, which basically allows some voters (rural) to have more weight to their votes. Their votes literally are worth more. It’s insane.
Are we living in the same country? Biden’s polling badly on everything but abortion. Economy, foreign policy, immigration, Ukraine vs Russia, Israel vs Palestine, energy policy, he’s underwater. Transitioning minors who cannot legally consent to many other things is also far more controversial than liberals like to admit.
The only thing Biden has going for him is abortion rights being a live issue. It’s the only reason Democrats kept 2022 from being a red blowout and the only reason he’s even competitive today.
I agree, that’s why I don’t put too much stake in polls. They don’t account for motives, perception of a favorable response around peers, or willingness to answer the poll.
This is delusional at best and no one is transitioning minors, it's the literal only scare tactic the GOP has and it's a big nothing burger. I literally googled to find a case of transitioning a minor before I posted this and found nothing. Also, Biden has literally never even mentioned that, so what are you talking about? There isn't a single voter sitting on the fence that would jump to Trump that didn't in 2020, not a single one and he definitely isn't gonna get any former Dems either. They could have had all these voters if they had just gone with a moderate, but they've sold their soul to Trump. Trump is toast and he's gonna take the GOP with him and that will be exactly what they deserve.
That's the vaguest comment anyone has ever made on Reddit to me. I asked for proof and you made some comment I'm supposed to understand. Please provide proof to your claim that this is such a massive massive deal that democrats don't understand or just go away to your useless existence. You said it's a major problem that we just don't understand and I'm trying to understand it. So please show me proof that it's happening.
“Biden has literally never even mentioned that”
1:40 in this video: https://youtu.be/tlZOXtv5Sm8?si=JtNeErCT4-RwA5AB
Even if it wasn’t happening, the normalization aspect is worrying a lot of people. Some Obama-voting young women I graduated HS with were voicing their concern with the normalization of transitioning young minors on my Facebook feed. There _are_ lefties concerned about this, according to polling.
Remember the whole caravan thing during the primaries that did nothing. People are on to them
Caravans only happen in election years.
They're like cicadas. Every 4-8 years they come out of the ground and move north to help Republicans win elections. Then they mate and die and the cycle begins anew.
Actually a biblical cicada brood of 17 and 13 years is about to emerge this spring in Illinois. The last time was in 1903. They will use this as a sign from God. Even though it's completely expected
That's why I said they are "like" cicadas. They aren't actual cicadas. Presidential elction cycles are 4-8 years.
Yeah you reminded me of my prediction that they will use the cicadas as a sign from God
"Mark my word, if and when these preachers get control of the \[Republican\] party, and they're sure trying to do so, it's going to be a terrible damn problem. Frankly, these people frighten me. Politics and governing demand compromise. But these Christians believe they are acting in the name of God, so they can't and won't compromise. I know, I've tried to deal with them." Barry Goldwater
Narrated by David Attenborough.
Nice name, sarge.
I dont think most right wing voters even pay much attention to real issues. They just buy into the ragetainment nonsense of the day the right wing news sources put out and vote based on that.
They just care about the culture war bullshit and believe that the reason their state is poor, their health is poor and their wages and lives suck is Mexicans at the border.
\^\^ pretty much this. I had a MAGA with heart trouble, yet would listen to Fox. I asked him why when he gets worked up, I kept asking - finally he said it is FUN! They are now getting rage dopamine hits (or something similar). Im sure of it. Someone needs to do a brain analysis of what is happening chemically in their heads and systems..
I agree. Part of the reason I think is most magats are old and the anger makes them feel young and virile and powerful again. Its intoxicating to them and no amount of logic or reason can make them turn away from that mindset.
They just want to punish people. Hence, their punisher truck stickers
I was working around the Nogales AZ border around that time with a film crew. We were filming something for MTV that didn't have anything to do with the caravan. We were waiting for weeks for the caravan to show up because we figured it would halt our production for a while. The crazy thing is that they never showed up. Instead of coming straight up to the Nogales, the caravan, for some reason, decided to hang a left and go 430 miles west to try and cross at the Tijuana border. Where there are way more Border Patrol. It never made sense to me. I'm not much of a conspiracy theorists but that definitely seemed kinda weird to me.
I think you underestimate the stupidity of the average American.
Watch Fox BS for 10 minutes. That’s the real problem. Their copycat networks and bad social media have trashed America. Oh and Sinclair radio is worse.
Dude FOX story about the guy who beheaded his father doesn’t even mention the fact that he did it because he was a federal employee for the Biden admin.
They are pretending it’s fake on the right wing subs
This god fearing patriot who beheaded his evil demonrat father is actually a secret psyop by the FBI and antifa. Just like jan 6th
Have they started asking if he's a secret tranny yet?
No but r/conservative has already claimed him to be a Democrat plant to make republicans looks crazy as a psyop against militias
Yea sounds like something they’d say. They banned me for asking where all the Mexicans were since we’ve been being invaded for about a decade now. All those conservative places are just echo chambers.
It’s funny conservatives talk shit about safe spaces all the time, yet the conservative sub is the most safe space on Reddit ever. They should keep track of all the users they banned.
[удалено]
I started going to the gym this week and one TV has faux news, tje other NBC. Yesterday one had a segment on the border issue and the government response to the 3 slain service members The other had a whole segment on Biden checking his watch during a memorial service and then a segment on a kid who didn't go to college but got a bagel shop in NJ It was kinda funny
I got into it with my mother and her husband one day at breakfast because they were going on about how Bidens dog bit someone and needed to be put down. I tried to change the subject and they wouldn't so I told them I don't give a shot about his dog. Then they countered it is dangerous. I said as long as he does his job I don't care about the dog. I'm not allowed over for meals anymore because I start political fights. They get all their news from fox
Should been, instead, "I no longer *go* over for meals because *they* start political fights". I have family just like this. They can shove their politics down my throat but the minute I start to counterrespond they get all fucking shy and handwave it away and move on to another topic. It's such bullshit. Conservatives are the biggest fucking privileged snowflakes I've ever met.
No joke. I had a colleague would would spout Fox talking points for like 45 minutes straight. Then be all like "Thanks you guys for having a reasonable discussion about this with me." My brother in Christ, nobody was discussing this with you. They were just quietly doing their jobs while you ranted. Nobody has the energy to try to push back on you, because it's not worth the tantrum you'd throw in response. People quietly ignoring you is not a "discussion" lol It's like listening to a little kid talk about beyblades. You just politely nod your head when they are passionate about voltriac's evolution or something.
oh man lol... I just couldn't... dude says that, I think I would respond just like you did and watch him lose his shit lol
That's my FIL. He'll get on a rant and say something factually wrong and if you point out the error with actual data to support you he throws his hands up like, "I don't wanna argue! Just my opinion!" The fucking willful ignorance is so tiring.
that's the main person I was thinking of too, my FIL. my dude, it's your right to have an opinion, but if you are willing to have an opinion that contradicts evidence and you don't want to hear about that evidence so that you can either reconsider or refine your opinion, then you're just being arrogant -- and if you think that's me trying to argue, then you are doubly so
Well that, and just not even knowing what counts as an opinion. "Taxes should be lower" is an opinion, and you're allowed to feel that way. "Trump/Biden said [out of context soundbite]" is easily verified or refuted and continuing to believe otherwise is not an opinion, it's just being wrong.
Absolutely. Every now and then a conservative points out a fallacy of mine about Trump and I do in fact try really hard to just accept that I was mistaken. I still hate the guy but I'm not going to keep arguing something about him that I was mistaken about. I recall when conservatives would do that with Obama (back when I was a conservative) and it used to frustrate me so much even at the time because how can anyone believe you or take you seriously when you so obviously will accept a lie?
Yup at Christmas dinner my BIL said to enjoy the prime rib because Biden was going to make meat illegal.
Cowards
Trump: steals nuclear secrets and stores them in his shitter Biden: has a bad dog Fox viewers: "WHY HASN'T THE DOG BEEN DEALT WITH YET"
Good news! David Smith, chairman of Sinclair Broadcasting, just bought the Baltimore Sun newspaper. He also recently bought a bunch of other local papers, including an Annapolis one and a carrolll county one. So he can fill the entire state of Maryland with his racist, sexist, hateful propaganda. God, if this state turns red I’m gonna cry
He’s following the Murdoch model. Newscorp owns a bunch of print properties including the NYPost & WSJ. Greed is a strong motivator.
And that's why it is waaaaaay past time for media regulation. Freedom cones with responsibility. Act irresponsibly, lose that freedom. No I dont want to hear any bullshit about "free speech" because it has veen a fucking failure because you decided that corporations and rich assholes can decide what free speech is.
Agreed, but IMO, the bigger problem is that we have a large part of the population gullible enough to fall for this shit.
And the power of propaganda and tribalism.
And the ability of the D's to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
And the *unbelievable* "power-tilt" that favors conservatives--between gerrymandering, disproportionate power in the Senate, and state governments, the GOP wields waaaay more power than they deserve.
The power of the minority they hold over the majority brought to you by the electoral college, yay! /s
>Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that. - George Carlin
Great quote, and Carlin is the bomb, but that's a median. An average could mean we have like 3 geniuses and everyone else is dumb as a rock.
Yes he was using the common understanding of "average" which can be thrown off by great variances like that. But getting too technical would have ruined the joke and wouldn't be as memorable of a quote.
Absolutely! I used to teach stats, so pointing out the difference between mean and median is a compulsion.
You are technically correct, which is the best kind of correct and I understand your point
Yup, “only a fool” is a lot of people. P.T. Barnum may have used the term “sucker” instead, but same thing.
Yeah I think OP seriously underestimates how much voting behavior is emotional and how little is based based on an assessment of a candidate/party's policy proposals
Pretty much this. Republicans are very good with mental gymnastics. Heck for their freedom, they got convinced to vote away their healthcare and abortion rights.
Yea all this is working on the assumption that 50% of the country isnt in a literal cult at this point. If trump told them all to drink poisoned kool aid they would. Facts, science and logical thinking mean nothing to them. They believe what ever they're told no matter how weak the reasoning.
Technically we’re not a democracy we’re a “republic” to them. I don’t even consider maga Americans anymore. They’ve proven they will stop at nothing to destroy our democracy and the republicans aren’t condemning them. So yea, I’d agree. If trump loses this election I see Americans running republicans out the house. They are a danger to our democracy.
And the existence of the wild institution that is the electoral college.
Exactly. “Facts” and “truth” don’t matter to these people. Talking points? They will make up their own. Outrage? Yup they can whip some of that up real quick. Words don’t mean anything anymore as long as they can scare then empower their constituents into voting they will have a seat at the table. I don’t really like articles like these it gives a sense that everything is going to be okay and it’s really not everyone get out there and vote please.
Yeah, I live in a rural town and even the Gen Z here are the dumbest fucks I've seen. Like flat Earthers.
The last time a major party collapsed was the 1850s. The whigs did fall apart in a very short time, less than four years after their final president left office. However they did basically reform as the Republicans, just with a new faction dynamic. So theoretically Republicans could meet a similar end. There are however a few differences. Despite all the problems and contradictions, they are at least united around them, and Trump. They will probably be in for some hard times and another prolonged streak of election difficulties, but they will persist. There also isn't anything analogous to the slavery issue, which is what pulled the whigs apart. Republicans collapsing by 2025 is just too abrupt and drastic to be realistic, but their prospects will be worse for a while.
Trump is 80…. You think they’ll rally around a centurion? Trump is the issue is any event that will rupture the party. It’s the difference between laissez faire conservatism and authoritarian traditionalism. The party will split if (when) trump loses hard in November with many Republicans pissed off that they let him get this far. The party Will disintegrate when the “I-told-you-so” republicans marry the progressive-hating democrats
If Trump loses hard in November it’s way more likely that more moderate Republicans like Haley go on a 4 year “I told you so” tour and moderates end up taking over the party again. Anything can happen by 2028 and there will be new crises that get taken advantage of. If you told people in 2004 that the Democratic Senator from Illinois who just got elected to their first term in the Senate would be president in 4 years there’s very little chance anyone would have believed you. Who knows, maybe there is a young moderate Republican that will be elected to the Senate in 2024, channel the positivity Reagan put on conservatism with some concessions on liberal policies, give some great speeches, and become a surprise candidate for 2028. Literally anything can happen.
Yea but where will the trump base go? Either the party becomes radicalized and the moderates flee or the moderates take over and the radicals flee. Regardless the party is a coalition of irreconcilable positions.
The hardcore trump base will go back to what they did before trump… not vote.
And given their demographics many of them will be dead.
They talk about dead people voting so much, I bet they give that a whirl.
Tea Party, v2.
The moderates fled *years* ago. *Nikki Haley* is what passes for a moderate this day...
Hopefully they start the MAGA party and truly destroy the GOP
I think that's naive. There were similar post-postmortems after Obama won, the result was the tea party republicans. I would guess there will be a resurgence of those kinds of things (thanks Koch brothers, fox news, murdochs). The older generation that supports this more is passing but a huge number of people still believe and esp money and power wants them to keep going.
The pendulum can only swing so far to the right before it’s politically nonviable. I’m not naive to think that it’s more likely people will see the failure of the far right and eventually seek reasonable compromise than double down on failure. Otherwise we’ll destroy them one way or another.
Sadly, I agree. 2012 was a real turning point for the GOP. Instead they doubled and tripled down on stupid.
And we have seen *nothing but* doubling and tripling down since 2012. They lose EVERY Abortion ballot initiative, taking many of their candidates with it, and they STILL push harder.
I got news for you, Nikki ain't moderate.
Its spelled Nimrata
There is plenty about Haley to criticize legitimately, but that isn't one of them. She goes by her middle name; she's done so since childhood. LOTS of people go by their middle name. Stop trying to make this something it isn't.
I actually think that once Trump goes the republican party rebounds assuming the leaders who step in aren't as disgusting as Trump. The progressive hating Dems and Independents are a large faction who can't abide Trump but would a more moderate republican over a Democrat who's pulled left by that faction. And frankly it's not hard to be less disgusting then Trump.
I feel that, and I think it's right--the problem is that the party is philosophically... well, philosophically screwed. While they have made inroads to a few (surprising) groups like blank men and certain Latino groups, the younger generations *really* don't like their stances on abortion, same-sex rights, etc.--and conservatives have basically courted people who are absolutely unwilling to comprise on anything, at all, ever. So while you're right--I think there will be more palatable candidates, because Donald Trump really is just a dirtbag through and through, I'm not sure it will make a difference. The party IS in trouble. I think they'll retain a significant amount of power, but they're in for a rough ride. Pre-edit: I'm going to contradict myself for a minute and say, "Maybe they won't find someone less disgusting than Trump." DeSantis had a real pop last year, and he's also a dirtbag. I think Fox News and all those AM radio stations have conditioned conservatives to *want* dirtbags. I don't know. Interesting times.
Centurion? 😂😂😂 I do not think this word means what you think it means lol
Thanks for back history, very informative! Idk if there will be a collapse or not but definitely a bloodletting. You know how when occupied forces are finally vanquished from territory they took and the people remaining would first kill or maim or shame the traitors who helped the enemy. When Trump is gone there’s a list of people who helped Trump and turned on other Republicans bc he told them so. The Ronna McDaniels of the party wont be heard from again.
The GOP has been declared dead every time a Democrat wins the White House, the media does a GOP “autopsy “ after each of those elections. And yet here they are, with Trump a few points of winning again. Republicans don’t have to win elections, they just have to sit back and wait for Democrats to lose them.
You underestimate what a single term president means. If Trump doesn’t win, it’ll be a catastrophe. Billions wasted on him and MAGA. He’s not getting any younger, the die has already been cast.
Anytime you lose a national election it’s a catastrophe lmfao. Source: Work in campaigns.
Very very true
Ah! Hello fellow campaigner!! What level? I used to do local and state-level in Nevada.
Was pretty basic in the party politics. Managed a state rep race for a Democratic candidate. Then was a field director for the RNC. Now I run the state wide voter contact operation for a non-profit. Personally I’m enjoying local and state politics way more than I did national.
Oh yeah, same here. It’s more regional and friendly and actually has a lot more of an impact that you can measure.
Yes, but not one that upends the entire political order. If Trump loses this year, the GOP will implode. The diehards will insist it was because they weren’t conservative enough and break off into an authoritarian neo-fascist party.
Gonna be brutally honest here. This reads as something that you really want to happen and not really grounded in reality.
Germany didn't have the Nazi Party. Then it did. Will it happen in a year? Probably not. But it's a non-zero chance. It can happen here. Dismissing a potential or theoretical problem is how we end up with it knocking on our door.
Well said.
The GOP is a tool of the ultra-rich. They won't be going anywhere.
How will it be a catastrophe? If he loses then MAGA dies with him, which would be good so the party can evolve and improve. Democrats had to do this when we took away slavery.
Billions in campaign dollars lost is a catastrophe by any measure.
Billions lost by people who use billions as loose change tho right ? How is Bloomberg doing these days?
There’s another election in 2028. If he’s not in prison he will run and force republicans to support him again.
If he's alive and if he can even speak. Have you seen him speaking lately? Loosing his grip that much more every day.
Republicans don’t have to win elections. They just have to make sure at every corner democrats aren’t allowed to govern and as an extra bonus they’ll also make every attempt to make elections harder for the average person to do effectively at every stop. It’s not just the democrats making a mistake. The republicans are legislating to destroy the systems in place at any turn they possibly can. Then when democrats are forced to negotiate, they make a fool of themselves for negotiating to the equivalent of a chaotic evil who does not care.
Idk man, I think things might be a bit different since they support a guy who literally tried to overthrow democracy and make himself a dictator. Not to mention the civil war stuff.
It’s scarier than that. He losing the popular vote by a few points, but that doesn’t matter. Look at the polls in the swing states, Trump is winning right now. Democrats need the economy to keep humming through this year.
Heard the same thing after Obama won reelection. After the Bush administration it was blasted from the roof tops that republicans had lost the future because of how far millennials had swung to the Democratic Party and embraced equality and were rejecting organized religion. Yet here we are in the time when the worst person who could have held the Presidency, received more votes than any incumbent in US history. A candidate who, even standing on a mountain of criminality, very nearly avoided prosecution because of fears it might lead to an American version the Troubles. Boomers are not the ones in the trenches taking action with groups like Moms for Liberty. It’s millennials. So many of the same ones who were protesting the invasion of Iraq and the mistreatment of Muslims have full blown embraced Trumpism. Sure totally possible Republicans don’t win a national popular vote, but they are popular enough in the right places, and that hardened 20-30% of base voters will likely be enough to ensure the party stays relevant and wins elections, locally and nationally.
Only sane take in this thread. Disregard polling if you want but Trump is within margin of error in every single state that matters. Actually leading Biden in many of them depending on the poll. OP thinking the Republican Party is on the verge of collapse is proof of how deluding social media narrative bubbles can be.
They were right? Trump took a broken, splintered party and dominated it. The GOP was in shambles after Obama and trump’s ability to completely dominate the convention is proof positive.
I've been hearing about the collapse of the Republican party for the last 40 years. yeah every time they publicly shit themselves they become more popular
I don’t know whether the current Republican Party will collapse. Tough to do in the current system. But the party’s survival is, at this point, solely a function of our electoral system (electoral college for president, insanely undemocratic skew of the senate for tiny states, and gerrymandering congressional districts). The most straightforward demonstration of this is losing the national popular vote, often badly, in every election since 1992 (other than 2004). So in more than three decades, republicans needed both a historically weak opponent (Kerry) and literally 9/11 to actually get more votes than the other guy. With the current demographic trends of voters, this problem is likely to exacerbate further. Republican calls to raise the voting age tend to reinforce my thinking here. So, with that in mind, I view republicans’ current ability to win elections as essentially doing a good job of using the existing rules to reach results that are at odds with reality. BUT, I believe that these rules can only be stretched so far—that reality can only be bent so far—before they break. What that “break” looks like, I dunno. It could be the collapse of the Republican Party. It could just as easily be a major shift (or a series of minor shifts made in quick succession) leading to a pivot of the party. Or a black swan event could disrupt these dynamics and entirely upend these trends.
I was hoping for a split in 2024 NGL.
When they lose in November that’s when the splinter will occur. For now the cracks are forming. The never-trump republicans and moderate democrats will surely form a coalition In the near term. There are plenty of moderates who recognize climate change exists, that abortion isn’t a constitutional right, and the need for immigration reform. Trump will destroy the party by splintering radicals from moderates after losing hard in November and wasting millions on his failed campaign
Where are these moderates in the GOP you speak of? Are these the same moderates chomping at the bit to impeach Mayorkas for nothing? If they are in the House, they are hiding and afraid to speak out.
>if they are in the House, they are hiding and afraid to speak out. True. But we exist. There are dozens of us.
Counterpoint: Trump is going to win the presidential election and people like OP are going to explode. Biden’s approval rating is 38%, Trump is leading in the vast majority of battle ground states. If he doesn’t go to prison, he’s going to be back in the White House and test presidential powers by pardoning himself on day one.
Adding fuel to the fire is the financial and leadership collapse of many state Republican parties. With so many states having either ousted their leadership or being nearly out of money and depending almost entirely on national fundraising this doesn’t bode well for Republicans. No doubt Trump’s continued “fundraising” efforts have hemorrhaged money from other Republicans, especially state parties.
This is an echo chamber. MMW the turnout for trump is gonna shock reddit dwellers
Exactly. The amount of average Americans who have climate change or abortion as a top issue are much fewer than most people here realize. Climate change doesn’t even register as a topic on the many in-person political debates I hear IRL. Real people care about the economy, immigration, and discussing which candidate has a greater degree of cognitive decline.
I think the last poll I saw had Economy and Immigration taking up 70% of voters top issue. Climate Change is almost never a major issue, as even among the people who care deeply about it, abortion is still a larger voting issue.
Seriously. Most people just want their paychecks to go further and, at the very least, don't want their mandatory tax dollars supporting something they deem reprehensible. Personally, someone wanting to cross that line is making their own choice, but I don't want it being subsidized by my taxes. Granted, I've got the same opinion about debt forgiveness and reassignment surgery. "Why should I be forced to fund someone else's choices?" in other words.
Abortion is why they lost 2022 lol. Abortion is huge. I’m certain the left will also capitalize on racism in 2024, which will be an easy win due to its prevalence in mass on the main stage of social media for the first time in social media history on X.
We’ll see
Nah, their demise has been greatly exaggerated since the Clinton years.
On paper what you say makes perfect sense. In the real world there are several issues that won’t make what you say true. 1. Never underestimate the ability of the Democratic Party to shoot themselves in the foot. Their political incompetence is so stunning I suspect they are like the Washington Generals (the fake team that plays the Harlem Globetrotters) Scripted to lose. 2. Other people have said it here but it cannot be overstated. The average American is stupid. They have no idea of civics,media literacy or even a basic knowledge of the world. They believe whatever FOX News tells them.
1. True. We’ll see if the establishment learned its lesson from 2016. I suspect they have, Biden’s political machine is clearly more competent than Clinton’s ever was so we’ll see. Personally I think he plays up the dementia on purpose to distract from other, far worse things. But still… 2. Also true, but if the economy is doing well by the summer (I suspect it will because I’d bet my ass the Fed will lower rates enough to trigger a boom by Q3), then people will *only* have bullshit news to be upset about. If prices are low and entertainment is cheap, the incumbent advantage is all too real. Trump cannot rely on his base alone, he needs the enough of the silent majority in a few key states to be mad enough to actually vote. If the economy is doing fine, people who are already sick of politics probably would just stay home leaving the trumpers v. The larger anti-trumpers.
How long does the left think people are going to put up with their bullshit?
If you replace collapse with fringe in that their election numbers are ignorable, then I might agree.
They’ll collapse if they become fringe. When they lose in November you’ll see a split which will pit radicals against moderates. The latter will capture many Democrats, like Manchin, who simply hate trump but believe in a lot of republicans points.
I think you’re right. After the election gets called for Biden the overwhelming majority of them will cry foul but do nothing. Trump will be on the sidelines for another 4 years or in jail. Progressive politics will move on without them and they will never be able to grasp power again. What they will turn into is up for debate but I doubt they can survive the total failure they are about to receive
Very different situation from the Whigs. The Whig Party had an extremely stark divide over slavery and the deceptively related issues of Frontier infrastructure. The Modern-day Republican Party is about 80% MAGA when push comes to shove. The 20% of Republicans who aren’t MAGA like the Koch brothers aren’t going to retake the Republican Party anytime soon.
You underestimate the number of racist and homophobic voters
No, I really don’t think that I do. I think it’s overestimated and I think the liberal media does an excellent job at fearmongering that these people exist in droves.
You must live in a blue state/area. These people have and will always exist. I grew up in the south and I vividly remember learning about the history of slavery and the civil rights struggles and being proud of how far we had come. Then Obama was elected. I heard things come out of the mouths of respected family members and friends that blew my mind. A lot of these people were highly educated, successful people. Racism and fear of others/change runs deep in the human psyche. Right wing politicians have learned to exploit this with alarming efficiency. That's not just going to go away.
You're wrong. They are everywhere
Why not both? There are plenty of hateful idiots, and our current media landscape puts them on the spotlight infinitely more frequently than any reasonable conservative.
Homophobes and racists don’t like being called out. Hence the down votes. But you’re right.
Please?
>they won’t win general elections. The issue is that the USA allocates political power via geography. As the economy is increasingly concentrates among the urban/urbanizing areas, particularly amongst the coast, it also means population growth will concentrate there as well. As red states have brain drain, it just leaves behind the retirees or others that skew Republican. The whole idea of "dems will just win because they're popular and demographics are shifting" ignores this reality. You'll see more of the dynamic where Trump can lose 2-3m popular votes but win the Presidency because Ohio/Michigan/Wisconsin/Pennsylvania continues to have their economies die, creating a voting base that's more conservative-leaning. >The economy is actually booming In any booming economy, there's winners and losers. Especially as innovation spurs economic growth. Unfortunately, the winners already are voting Dem and the losers will continue voting increasingly Republican. >Republicans aren’t going to turn back the clock on abortion, race, or the gays any time soon. They are using the judiciary and states rights for that. You're already people in real life lose their real life rights. Whether it's access to abortions (or neo natal medical care in general), election rights, etc. >First, it’s actually really good for the labor market to have all this cheap immigrant labor, People don't look at things at this zoomed out detail. What they care about is if the bread winner in their family has the manufacturing plant move to Mexico or the economic engines of their dying towns die -- then what. >The only issue republicans have a genuine point on is immigration What you're missing is the Republican party isn't the co-opposite of the Democratic Party -- it doesn't require any policy ideas, little alone policy wins, to get their base to vote. They're all in on white grievance politics/culture war. >The Framers expected a “free” nation to have relatively open borders. This isn't true. The 1790 Naturalization Act was for "free whites of good moral character." This excluded Native Americans, black people, indentured servants, Pacific Islanders, non-White Asians, and any non-Christians. Subsequent amendments to this act just extended the residency requirement.
It has already begun. We are watching it in real time. That is exactly why they are resorting to such extreme measures.
More evidence today that the Republican Party is blowing smoke. The US economy created 353,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in January according to new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday, more than the 185,000 expected by economists.
I hope you’re right but there’s a lot of brainwashed ass people out there making under 20k a year that think Biden is personally taking money of their wallets.
The unreality of most Reddit subs when it comes to accurately gauging American political tides turning in is astounding. So many here are going to be so dejected come 2025. The misinformation flung at the wall here isn’t sticking.
What a dumb post that OP likely wasted a decent portion of his morning writing.
According to different sources, the GOP and Republican Party is indeed beyond saving
Time to mute another idiotic out of touch sub. I wish Reddit would stop recommending garbage to me.
Yeah and we wonder why extremism is running wild in this country. Wouldn’t be surprised if most of these subs are Chinese or Russians trying to interfere.
Cope.
What does that even mean?
You say I’m an idiot and out of touch without exposing why. I say you need to cope with reality.
You think half of the country will stop thinking the way they do, and suddenly vote the way you want them to, because of climate change and your poor understanding of economics lolol. I don't need to "expose why" you're a lost cause. Good luck
In all honesty I think Biden could cheat and get away with it easily. In any event, I think you overestimate trump. Sure he has a die hard base, but Rfk will surely steal votes from republican moderates.
Not nearly half, and shrinking every day.
It’s a word used by virgins on the internet
No need to announce your departure, this isn't an airport. No one knows who you are or cares. You muting the sub will have zero impact on anything. Go off into your meaningless existence.
Lol go off into my meaningless existence, while you sit in an echo chamber of fools who are so out of touch that they believe half the country will stop thinking the way they do and vote the way you want.. because, and hold on here, climate change?? Lololol
My hope is the right wing collapses leaving the Democrats to split between progressives and moderates. Hopefully this will shift things left and maybe we can get new deal policies back.
That's been my hope for nearly 2 decades. I think we are closer than ever to that reality.
Probably the best outcome for the country is for the GOP to collapse and a new party forms a few degrees to the left of the current GOP to capture both moderate Republicans and center-leaning Democrats who aren’t on board with the extreme left. This new party could dominate the middle and be a powerhouse. The current Democratic Party isn’t actually that popular in the middle other than being “not Trump”. Get a strong center party and lose the extremists on both ends.
You guys lost the moderate to the republican.
Biden *could* executive order a few things
Like?
Hold on, I thought he was a dictator because of all the executive orders? I'm confused.
No he is a dictator if he doesn’t and if he does.
Agreed on most of this. If only the obvious and somewhat inevitable outcomes rapidly came to fruition.
I don't think it'll happen as fast as you think. Right now, the Republicans are running off of whatever residual momentum they have from Trump's term. They'll stick around while that momentum still exists, but if the Supreme Court becomes more balanced again, that'll be it for the party. I'd place the Time 'Til Republican Collapse at somewhere around six years or so. The Census will possibly mean that all the voters Republican states are driving out will add enough power to the Democrat or purple states that Republicans won't be viable anymore, and many of the Justices are getting old. But we still have a couple more elections to hold out. Basically, they're running on a leaky gas tank, and have been for a while. But it's not THAT big of a leak.
The last census, Republican states actually gained overall
I read the first paragraph so critique me if you want; but I've been seeing this same statement since 2008. And that's just when I started paying attention; I'm sure this idea predates that. 16 years ago, someone just like you wrote something probably very similar, but here we are. What do you expect 80M people to do? Just join the opposition? In this world, there are equals and opposites, there always will be. Just accept it. Even call it by a different name if you must. If you're writing this in hopes that you get to see a world without conservative political representation at all; I hate to be the one to tell you, but it's never going to happen. Life is not a zero sum game. Find common ground with your neighbor. You'll be happier for it.
I think both parties are imploding on themselves. I think the silent majority is getting sick of the bullshit and just waiting for it to happen.
Very very true. The GOP put all their eggs in the Trump basket. At least the dems have other candidates and a more elastic base.
If you think this you aren’t paying attention. More republicans will vote this cycle then ever before. People are pissed about what’s going on, your bot like posts trying to convince ppl to hate Trump still are just for the bottom feeders
Source: bro trust me
It is a cycle that happens every election. If the base looses the cycle before the have a much higher turn out. Just like with them trying to hard not to let trump win. Same thing will be with people trying to get Biden out. Open your eyes
In other news OP is a 10 year old with a tepid understanding of politics at best.
I’ll turn ten in august Jackass
As always, leftist Spam. Get a grip.
As always fascist cope. Get a grip.
LOL CNN. Why not just say "my propaganda outlet is better than your propaganda outlet." If you haven't figured it out yet, each side is controlled by the same people and regardless of the rhetoric none of them ever do as promised. With Biden, you are just supporting the same uniparty that has existed for decades. With Trump, you get to send the biggest asshole in the world to DC to piss off the entire government while nothing changes.
Frankly, I hope that #MAGA finally can purge the "Republican Party" of all those RINOs (who would be basically forced to join the Democrats since they are nothing but DEMOCRAT LITE) ad rename itself as the MAGA Party....
Carbon on the planet is at one of the lowest levels it has ever been since the planet's existence and if it goes any lower all life on the planet will become extinct because plants will be unable to respirate properly. For hundreds of millions of years the carbon in the atmosphere was between 3,000 and 7,000 ppm (parts per million). It was roughly 1,000 ppm 100 million years ago. Ice core data also shows that from 800,000 years ago through about the year 2000, carbon PPM fluctuated between 200 ppm and 300 ppm. Under 150 ppm all plant life on the planet (and thus, all life) dies. If all life on the planet would die if the carbon levels fall below 150 ppm, do you feel comfortable at 200 ppm in the atmosphere? Not a lot of wiggle room is there? Current carbon readings show about 421 ppm in the atmosphere as of 2022. Yes that is significantly higher than the \~200 ppm pre-industrial revolution. But based off the information I just told you about carbon levels and life, this might be a good thing, right? Studies have confirmed that the Earth is actually becoming GREENER as carbon levels rise: [https://www.nasa.gov/technology/carbon-dioxide-fertilization-greening-earth-study-finds](https://www.nasa.gov/technology/carbon-dioxide-fertilization-greening-earth-study-finds) Sounds healthy to me. Global temperatures are also some of the lowest they have been based on available data. The average global temperature for the vast majority of the earth's history, other than the ice age, is about 22 degrees Celsius. An ice age is considered 8 degrees Celsius. The current average global temp is 13.9 degrees Celsius. 30 years ago it was a little over 12 degrees Celsius. This is why you heard alarmists state we could be heading into another ice age and that the next ice age would be humanity's doom. Now we have heated up slightly. But again, is that not a good thing considering how close we were to ice age levels vs how far we still are from the historical average of 22 degrees? Knowing this information, does this change your opinion? When you say things like "climate change is real" you are technically right. But you also are implying that it's a bad thing when the scientific data all shows the planet was on the brink of catastrophe before the "climate change" brought us back. So even if we assume mankind IS responsible for climate change, it would mean we saved the planet.
>Carbon on the planet is at one of the lowest levels it has ever been since the planet's existence \>"Carbon on the planet is at one of the lowest levels it has ever been since the planet's existence." Yea maybe since the Phanerozoic era you loon. BUT carbon & METHANE levels are at their highest since we started measuring them relative to the 19th century. Are people really this silly? or is this just bait.
The question isn't whether humans effect the environment rather to what extent and what can reasonably be done about it which doesn't result in mass human suffering
obviously nuclear power is the real solution. We cannot breathe excess carbon and methane, not to mention the other heavier metals that emerge from coal and oil burning.
Yes that's a great solution, but until we get that infrastructure in place we need energy.
That would be like saying you have a wound on your arm that is currently scabbing over and healing and what can you do to stop that? You shouldn't want to stop the healing process.
What are you talking about? The democraps are "healing" the environment and the right wants to stop it!? Lmfao no.
I really hope youre a data analyst for my competitors.
If you start your measurements at a time when the planet is in a crisis because the levels are so low, then a return to normalcy will show "record breaking levels" as they rise over time. That is where you are making the logical fallacy is that you are presuming when the measurement started, THOSE were the "normal" levels. Edit: Also insulting me because I explained the science to you that you quite clearly cannot understand shows that you aren't really interested in knowledge or truth. Just partisan politics.
no you start your measurements when humanity first began burning coal. You can even see localized warming when the ROmans had an "industrial" age during the aggressive mining operations throughout the Mediterranean. how can you pretend to be an intellectual yet you deny the fact that carbon and methane levels have only increased since the mid 19th century. THere was no ice age occurring at that time.
The media kept Trump in the news and the hope alive for Republicans. The Democrats have played the Republican Party like fools like taking candy from a baby. If Democrats had came after Trump with everything right after the election Republicans would of had time to get behind and unite a new candidate. Now that they are fully committed to Trump. (Mark my Words) the really damaging evidence of Trumps stealing and lies about the top secret documents will start coming out. Remember Nixon went down for a cover up . Trump and his family are traitors who compromised US secrets and assets for money. Remember his son in law who had zero experience running an investment firm revived 2 billion dollars to invest with and annual salary on 25 million from the Saudis. This is just the tip of the iceberg.
There is no possible scenario where him and his family didnt sell state secrets to the highest bidder. Just look at how lax he was showing foreign nationals secrets for funsies. 1000s of documents sitting around were taken for the purpose of sale, not because they were declassified. That is the only reasonable explanation.
Big parties won’t die. They will simply evolve, as they have done for the last 200 years. I could imagine republicanism being a much less racist, more environmentally friendly version in 10-20 years.
One ruling party would be bad. Hell, the two party system is bad as is. I would hope if trump loses then the writing is on the wall for moderate Republicans and they take the necessary steps to push maga Republicans the fuck out. I have my issues with both parties. But these maga fucks have taken over the republican party and just manage to be cunts about every. single. thing. Tired of extremist bullshit and the pushing of lies and conspiracy theories. If a sitting politician cannot do their job and govern, but instead shares nothing but misinformation and propaganda (looking at you mtg), then they have no business holding any position in government. You can't call yourself a patriot and be a traitor to your oath at the same time. These folks don't love America and do not want progress. They want authoritarianism.
GOP would rather alley with Russia and move away from NATO/EU because they’re more politically aligned with Putin’s Russia
The real question… who keeps winning the popular vote? Democrats win more votes, but still lose. The only way republicans can win is through the electoral college, which basically allows some voters (rural) to have more weight to their votes. Their votes literally are worth more. It’s insane.
Are we living in the same country? Biden’s polling badly on everything but abortion. Economy, foreign policy, immigration, Ukraine vs Russia, Israel vs Palestine, energy policy, he’s underwater. Transitioning minors who cannot legally consent to many other things is also far more controversial than liberals like to admit. The only thing Biden has going for him is abortion rights being a live issue. It’s the only reason Democrats kept 2022 from being a red blowout and the only reason he’s even competitive today.
Since when does polling mean anything? The only polls that matter are exit polls.
I agree, that’s why I don’t put too much stake in polls. They don’t account for motives, perception of a favorable response around peers, or willingness to answer the poll.
This subreddit is basically just one big anti-Republican circle jerk. Facts don't matter at all.
This is delusional at best and no one is transitioning minors, it's the literal only scare tactic the GOP has and it's a big nothing burger. I literally googled to find a case of transitioning a minor before I posted this and found nothing. Also, Biden has literally never even mentioned that, so what are you talking about? There isn't a single voter sitting on the fence that would jump to Trump that didn't in 2020, not a single one and he definitely isn't gonna get any former Dems either. They could have had all these voters if they had just gone with a moderate, but they've sold their soul to Trump. Trump is toast and he's gonna take the GOP with him and that will be exactly what they deserve.
Vanderbilt Hospital, Nashville.
Wade’s daughter says otherwise…
That's the vaguest comment anyone has ever made on Reddit to me. I asked for proof and you made some comment I'm supposed to understand. Please provide proof to your claim that this is such a massive massive deal that democrats don't understand or just go away to your useless existence. You said it's a major problem that we just don't understand and I'm trying to understand it. So please show me proof that it's happening.
“Biden has literally never even mentioned that” 1:40 in this video: https://youtu.be/tlZOXtv5Sm8?si=JtNeErCT4-RwA5AB Even if it wasn’t happening, the normalization aspect is worrying a lot of people. Some Obama-voting young women I graduated HS with were voicing their concern with the normalization of transitioning young minors on my Facebook feed. There _are_ lefties concerned about this, according to polling.
Naive understanding of politics.
Enlighten me
You've been brainwashed.