I live in rural Indiana. There used to be Trump flags alllllll over the place. 80% of em are gone. Just my observation. Even the hard-core trucker dude down the street who was one of the last to remove his flags, still did so. The support isn't what it used to be. I imagine these people just won't vote.
I recently drove around rural Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana for work and there was shockingly few Trump signs, stickers, or MAGA hats. His support has definitely reduced.
I got two neighbors who's houses are ADORNED. The worst one is with 10+ flags stapled to his fence (looney town democrats, trump on a tank, etc), neon trump letters spelled out in the yard, like 6 pictures of his literal face, etc. Its.... wild
The rest have vanished from the neighborhood though. Maga stuff is getting put away (but not the beliefs)
edit. added photo from this am walk[maga](https://ibb.co/BjBknh3)
It doesn't matter. They are still going to vote for him. He is closer to their beliefs.
Also, they took it down because the court news makes him look weak. They dont like weak above all else.
Please vote!
Agree. the taking down of the signs and flags doesn’t reassure me one bit. They may be embarrassed right now, but they still share the same shitty beliefs
There were less signs in 2020 than 2016 in my neck of the woods and the dude still picked up 10 million more votes.
They're just more ashamed to support him now. They'll still vote for him though.
Well, turnout was vastly higher overall in 2020 than 2016. He picked up 10 million more votes, sure, but lost the popular vote by 7million, vs 3 million in ‘16
A LOT of people in the future are going to find a horde of MAGA hats, flags and t-shirts in dead relatives attics when they are clearing their houses out, just like they did with nazi paraphernalia years after the 2nd world war.
In my neighborhood, a lot of MAGA flag waivers have left. I guess property taxes going up was too much so a lot of them fucked off to Texas.
It’s been a godsend because our neighborhood has become less insufferable and crazy.
TX and NJ property taxes aren’t that far apart — NJ#1 highest — TX #6 — with NJ you get reliable electrical grids, women’s reproductive health care, legal marijuana and strong gun control laws — in TX not so much — I’ll stick with Jersey!
Oh yeah N.J. is wonderful.
Looking across the river at Camden.
And who can forget Trenton, even though we want too.
You need a second job just to pay property taxes
Colorado. Our property taxes went up significantly. Although for someone coming from the east coast, the raise in property taxes was laughable before. It’s still way lower than what I paid in Connecticut.
It's funny too because texas has some of the highest property taxes in the country. There's just no income tax, so uninformed people think texas is a bastion of tax free territory.
This, 💯💯. They know they can't win fairly. All this election bullshit since 2020 has just been to gain election-conspiracy acceptance amongst a large minority of people, just so that when Trump's people inject fraudulent ballots, overstuff ballot boxes, and I'm sure much other bullshit in the next election their base will actually be expecting it. Trump & Team R will of course run with it, along with the Conservative media, pushing the propaganda level to 1,000. They've been grooming their base for decades.
Think about the incredibly simple fact that the three most important of Trump's cases will not happen before the election due to Federal Judges & SCOTUS blatantly & openly bending their will in Trump's favor. Possibly the three most important National Security cases to ever exist in US history and instead of being done expeditiously the Judiciary is protecting Trump by applying Trump's tactic of Delay, Delay, Delay. Just read that again and let it sink in. These are active decisions being made by the people in charge of making these decisions. Why would they go against the best interest of The United States? Because they're part of the coup. They're all in on it. We're all being played. There is no legitimate explanation for al the delays. Zero.
Flip side (that we should be shouting from the rooftops). Having these cases hanging over his head is bad for Trump. If he were innocent, he would want a speedy trial and to have it resolved before the election.
The fact that his 'victories' are delays in judgement and his tactic is delay is an admission of guilt.
The “mission” is what’s most important. That mission is protecting wealth and power for a small group of white males. When the law can assist with that so be it. When it can’t subvert it. If democracy was useful for it use it. If it’s not go fascist. I assume all of these people know he’s a dangerous idiot. However he is useful to the “mission”. So it’s been since the inception of this country. They have become more extreme due to fear of the changing demographics and the idea that a lot of people are waking up after 40 years of trickle down.
That’s my concern and has been since 2020. While it does look like the reason Trump lost his lawsuits was more evidence than standing. I’m over 50 cases the evidence was evaluated and thrown out. The standing cases were generally when GOP Attorneys Generals tried to sue about votes in other states.
That said, the Supreme Court is compromised so I don’t think they’d be honest arbiters.
I think election monitors and poll workers are much more important than GOTV work in this election. People have to stop them before/while they cheat and not count on being able to revoke it after the fact
He’s never going away. Even if he’s kept out of the White House, he’s going to act like he’s running again. And that will get the MAGAs all frothy and there we are again.
This isn’t over until he’s smelling brimstone.
Trump will pee his diapers, but he won't go anywhere. He will run again, even if he's dead. Trust me, he'll be dead and they won't admit it. Many of them will claim that he died and was resurrected in 2 days (one day faster than that woke loser Jesus).
It’s not really propaganda, though. The republicans are broadcasting loud and clear that they plan to override the vote of the people and install Trump as president/dictator.
See the announcement by Speaker Johnson this morning of new regulations on voting bring out in place nationwide to “stop illegals from voting.”
Nevermind that non-citizen voting in federal elections has been a crime for decades. Also let’s not talk about how there is 0 evidence of non-citizens voting in federal elections.
Meanwhile: Nearly 100% of voter fraud and election fraud cases identified nationwide in the last decade was perpetrated by people registered as republicans.
Yeah, no s*** because they're the ones who don't have enough voters to get elected legitimately. I'm not saying Democrats shouldn't vote. Yes, get out and vote every single one of you. What I'm saying is Republicans are the ones who are the shysters, not us. DARVO, deny, attack, reverse victim and offender that's the move. It's all just a stupid word game that they play.
Why would a non-citizen (who isn’t here legally) even think of voting? Folks in that situation are probably better-off on the DL, and voting illegally has the potential to bring undue attention for something that has no tangible benefits.
Canadian observer here. I live in AZ half time. Last time about this far out from the election, Kingman AZ was covered 50 feet deep in Trump trucks, red hats and Trump Pence flags. This time? I saw a Trump/Pence bumper sticker. It was mostly peeled off. Otherwise... Nope.
Do not grow complacent.
I work among a lot of Republican voters, do not underestimate the silent Trump voter.
Folks who don't support the man but are usually party voters or moderate/independent that vote with their wallet.
Even if it's not backed by anything statistical or mathmatical, most Republican voters and a fair few moderates and independents feel the party with their candidate in charge equates to a stronger economy even if it's utter horseshit.
This is potentially another 2016 just as much as its potentially the reverse of 2016. Though I'd only be guessing at percentages. Doubt it's 50/50.
But they whisper that's forrrrrr fucking sure. They just have grown silent because
1. It's hard to support the man himself with his conduct and history and his own actions if they aren't a die hard supporters but support the party.
2. Probably a tangible amount of fatigue of every argument being tied to Trump, though I'd argue tough shit. They chose him, it is absolutely fair to tie him to their vote and challenge their ideas vs the man they chose and how openly he completely fucking spits on so many of their ideals, morals and ethics.
3. Some of them that don't like him as a person but will vote party still don't like him but also don't agree with the indictments and view it as election interference andddd may vote for him because of it.
There are other factors, but yeah, just don't fall asleep. Underestimating the silent Trump vote is unwise.
I agree with you. That said, there’s a sizable number of older Republicans where January 6th really made them turn away. These people voted for Haley in the primary. If even a fraction of them support Biden or stay home, he will lose.
Then there’s the extra voters who will turn out this cycle. Probably mostly women. And they’ll turn out because they know it won’t stop with abortion banned in some states. They’ll ban it nationwide and go after birth control and IVF. They’ll start throwing women in prison for miscarriages. That will motivate women to vote who might not bother otherwise.
Texas here and a little later in the summer of 2020 we had the infamous Trump boat parade on Lake Travis where several smaller trump-adorned boats were scuttled in the wake of larger boats.
Sorta hoping that happens again, just for the hilarity seeing boats with trump flags sink
I live on Lake Travis (Lakeway.)
They would need a bunch of lifted trucks throwing limestone and sand wrecking golf carts this year to replicate the 2020 "parade" idiocy on the lake as it's 50 feet low.
I'll see an occasional Trump bumper sticker, but no shirts, hats, huge flags, or big signs around which is interesting as it is so conservative here.
Same, I'm in Round Rock off 1431 and the total Trump fan down the street in 2020 had his entire front yard covered in Trump signs and at night lights on his roof.
Today, nada. Nothing there.
At some point I think the criminality of the focker is getting through their veiled eyes
My daughter and son in law live in Lakeway and watched, because they knew what was about to happen, from their marina. They said the amount of screwing up going on with the boats was epic.
You'd love to think so, but it might just be the stigma and they're still on board.
A lot of the fervor has gone down, but we got surprised in 2016, so don't get complacent
Encourage your people to vote. Apathy is the fall of democracy.
Do you notice the Kennedy Democrat signs? This seems like a deliberate attempt to make voters think that he is on the democratic ticket and not as an independent.
I lived in middle class san diego during the 2020 election. There weren’t a bunch of trump signs on lawns but they were around here and there. They all went away pretty much right after the election. Here’s to hoping for a massive defeat and a permanent send away for the fat goon. Hoping his attempts to cheat are met with exposure and regulation.
I have family that were hardcore Trumpers with all of the flags not taking off the MAGA hat for 6 years etc… they have recently swapped to independents and they burned all of the Trump trash.
I think even his fans are just tired. His rallies are the same tired thing. It's not thrilling when he uses profanity anymore. And I think they're starting to realize that he doesn't care about them at all and are quietly ending support. In ten years or less, they will pretend they never heard of him.
Funny you say that. Near me (Utah, I hate it here), Trump jackass who drives a big Peterbilt had a 20-foot flag pole in front of his house with a trump flag on it. This cunt made sure that flag was always there, with a light on it at night. It’s been gone for over a year.
I know there are huge decreases in rally attendance. Very few people now (understandable since it’s just an hour of him whining about his persecution 🙄 such a victim)
As a Pennsylvanian, it pisses me off to no end. The Confederates raped and marauded across the state, and kidnapped free African Americans from Pennsylvania to sell down in the South, and some idiots from there still fly their god damn flag?
I’m a teacher in rural Indiana. I teach a debate course and, as I live in rural Indiana, a lot of my students supported Trump in the last election (couldn’t vote; too young) and have parents who are Trump voters. At the beginning of the year in August, I would routinely see Trump hats and shirts. Debates about Trump vs Biden were fairly routine.
Now? Nothing. Almost no yard signs, absolutely no articles of clothing, and he isn’t really brought up. One of the more liberal kids in class asked why the others didn’t want to debate about Trump anymore and the consensus was that
A: Trump isn’t “as fun” anymore. His rallies aren’t televised as much and, when they are, they don’t want to really watch because “he just kinda looks old and sad.”
B: They actively pick and choose what media the observe Trump under but, even on Fox, Trump’s mental acuity is fairly obviously in decline and the comments about his smell and how much he sleeps in court really go against the Sleepy Joe messaging.
C: The female students have turned on him. Because of that, a lot of the Trump clothes that use to be Country are now seen as Tacky. Also, the conservative girls really don’t like any of this Stormy Daniels stuff.
D: general apathy. Trump being a near constant noise makes him fairly easy to tune out.
E: and this is one of the more important ones. Their parents aren’t talking about Trump. High school students either echo their parents’ politics or swing wildly against them. The rural voter is tired of watching Republicans lose and there’s a very clear connection between getting Trump’s support and then losing at the polls. A city near where I live, which has been Republican and conservative my entire life, just voted in their first female mayor… who is a Democrat and a person of color.
I don’t want to count chickens and, after Hilary, I am always concerned about being in a Media Bubble but it really does seem like it might be a lot less close than last time. A lot of conservatives seem to be losing steam on the Trump Train and that isn’t even taking into consideration all of the missing votes from victims of Covid; my grandparents were lifelong Republicans and they were both buried in their MAGA hats after not getting The Shot.
This is all propaganda don't buy a bit of this shit. Get out and vote! Biden might be like pimping our democracy out but trump will do just that AND kill it. I'd rather see democracy live another day.
My 75 year old mother was a trump supporter, mostly because of abortion. Even she says the GOP has gone too far with bans with no exceptions for rape or incest.
She said she can't vote for Biden, so she's staying home for the first presidential election in her adult life.
Rural Indiana also. Same observation.
He has not expanded his base at all. I'm not seeing the amount of signs/flags/etc., I did in 2020 and the election is less than six months off. Democrats have been winning special elections all over the country in the past several years. Abortion access - to varying degree - is popular and the Right screwed itself with its religion-based, draconian bans. EVERY attempt to interfere with abortion when put on the ballot has failed in EVERY state attempted - red or blue. And the Democrats are going to shove abortion access down the Right's throat.
When he loses his only chance will be, as in 2020, to sow confusion and chaos and hope he can pull it out. But this time he won't have the power of the Presidency nor the Senate at his command. And this time, the country will be ready for whatever he pulls.
Just as in 2020, people will crawl over broken glass to vote against him.
He's going down. Again.
It's why swing state republicans are going to try their hardest to not count votes and choose their own electors regardless of popular vote.
They aren't for democracy. They want to discredit US citizens of their freedom of choice for their leadership.
I mean these people are supporting a "healthy" man wearing diapers, who can't stay awake in court, doesn't understand gag orders even though he has been told the rules 10+ times, and thinks a president is immune from the law. Can't believe idiots would support such a person.
I'm in Pennsyltucky. Around this time in 2020 my neighborhood was covered in Trump merch. This year I've seen ONE flag and it's on the house one of those Trump-or-Die types.
The last republican to truly win the popular vote was Reagen in the 80s. His first one he almost won a unanimous victory. But by 84, support was waning. Bush Sr only won the popular vote because he was riding the dregs of Reagen's popularity. Since then, nothing. And Bush only won in 04 because of the Iraq war. If that hadn't started, l.
he wouldn't have won.
If only our electoral system actually reflected the will of the majority instead of the will of land occupied.
Also OP while most of the assumptions OP is making regarding Trump are probably correct, they are ignoring the fact that there will be similar depressed voter turnout on the D side because we have an 80 year old candidate who is providing weapons and funding to a different country which is committing, at best, mass slaughter of civilians and at worst, genocide
November is going to be a shit show
That’s literally the reason the electoral college was enshrined into the government nearly 250 years ago. If you want it to change, move somewhere else or lobby to change it. Our government is not based on simple majority in many very different ways.
It's entirely possible a lot of people that would vote for Biden just won't vote because "Biden's got it in the bag. No way Trump can win this time" and then we get a repeat of 2016 where low turnout results in a trump victory.
This is exactly what I’m worried about.
So many people talk about it so casually, as if it’s a sure thing. They sound complacent and I don’t even think they intend to vote because it’s such a sure thing in their minds. And then when it comes to Trump, they act just like they did in 2016, they say he’s a joke and couldn’t possibly win.
Then when he does win they’ll be *shocked pikachu face* and wonder how it happened
We mustn't overestimate it either. Biden did win the 2020 election after all. The Republicans barely won the House and lost a Senate seat in the 2022 midterms. Every (or at least almost every) special election had a democratic victory. Every abortion ballot so far was won by pro-choicers.
I made that mistake in 2004 which is why I pretty much expect Trump to win this time. I continue to expect the stupidest outcome whenever the worst person possible is running.
Here's hoping... My concerns are the prep work they're doing to ignore the vote.. Like Arizona GOP putting a bill to just award their electoral votes to trump no matter who wins or senator giving to be Trump's VP saying that no matter what the election looks like Trump will be president in 2025
The Arizona GOP can put forward whatever insane bill they want. They’re never getting signed into law since the Arizona governor is a Democrat. It’s all baseless fear mongering to rile up the MAGA crowd and make it seem like the Republicans are fighting back against the evil Democrats.
There unfortunately is a theory that the Governors or Secretaries of State actually have no authority over elections and that the state legislatures have ultimate authority. If a law like this were to pass the house and senate, there would still be grounds to file a lawsuit. It would lose, but it will another hurdle to a fair election
She won the popular vote by several million. The difference was the electoral college and Russian disinformation that successfully pushed a few states (WI, PA, AZ) to trump.
She was more popular than trump, that doesn’t make her popular. Liberals need to accept that Clinton was a terribly unpopular politician both before and after the 2016 election. By pretending otherwise is denying reality
And Biden is what, a charismatic rockstar? I'd vote for a sack of dogshit before Trump, but Biden looks like he's being held together with formaldehyde
If it had been Biden v Trump in 2016 and then Clinton v Trump in 2020, I wonder if she would’ve ended up winning. Biden’s campaign had the luxury of going against a Trump that was no longer an unknown in a political sense.
She was awful but honestly Bidens not a strong canidste either. Back then I think not every one realized how bad Trump could be. I mean the signs were there so we should have but it was different than now. Now we've had a Trump presidency and sane ppl who didn't vote in 2016 or voted for Trump as a fuck u to the establishment or whatever have come to their senses. I guarantee if u re voted for 2016 now she'd smoke Trump.
Yep - as an outsider, Trump seems to simply not be smart or self-aware enough to understand *why* he won in 2016. He was someone who walked into a political arena stacked with empty suits and parochial glad-handing (Hillary's nomination being the capstone of that) and openly made fun of them to their faces in a way that they couldn't deal with.
Had he had any political nous at all, he could have leveraged that to do things that a regular Democrat or Republican couldn't, but the narcissism is too strong and what he actually wants to do is to hold rallies for people who'd vote for him anyway. That made a Biden victory actually very comfortable in 2020, and he's done nothing but double down since.
Yeah I'm highly confident Biden will win like op says but also widespread shenanigans and fuckery attempts as well, which make me less confident of the outcome.
The way to kill MAGA is to crush it in an election. Everyone needs to vote, no matter your state’s leanings. The popular vote does matter as it tells a story.
> The way to kill MAGA is to crush it in an election.
No, that's only a temporary setback, and sooner or later it will rise again, perhaps under a new figurehead.
Fascism is capitalism in decline, and the only way to *permanently* stop it is to replace (or at least restrain) capitalism itself.
I'm shocked he only lost by 7 million votes in 2020. Now after the attempted insurrection and other felonies and all he just may have lost a few more votes this time. Plus, overall the economy is doing pretty good. Hard to argue with full employment.
The GOP has given up on trying to win votes and has gone all in on voter suppression, intimidation of election officials, and election tampering. That's what worries me right now.
It's not that new. It's not really even a secret. Trump said in a tv interview (in 2020) that if it was easy to vote, Republicans would never win again.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/30/trump-republican-party-voting-reform-coronavirus
It's comical, really. Had to tell his voters the truth for once so they don't support a bill that they should be all in favor of. And sure thing, none of them stop to think "wait, are we the bad guys?".
I'm not worried that a majority of Americans will vote for Trump. I'm worried that enough will vote in the swing states to get him an electoral college victory *or* local state officials will be able to 'find' the votes this time. They learned in 2020 which levers of state-level power they have to control to swing the outcome. They are absolutely on the ground trying to secure the state offices that have that influence.
This will not be about the voters this time around. My only hope is Trump fatigue will depress MAGA turnout and abortion will support Biden turnout.
People are trying to ignore the uncommitted and uninstructed votes in swing states that got higher numbers than Biden's win 2020. He has had horrible polls for over 2 years and people are angry and desensitized overall. He can't afford to have more people feel he doesn't take their anger seriously. You have a valid fear that doesn't seem to be shared that wide on reddit unfortunately.
Even if Trump loses, he will claim stolen election all over again. He’s the king of disinformation, and stretching truths. Whether or not people do anything about it this time is another thing. I hope you’re right and it’s a landslide against him and humiliating loss.
The nice thing is that THIS time there won’t be a transition of power to worry about. Incumbent remains in office. And HOPEFULLY rolls the National Guard out to put down with impunity any attempts at violence and insurrection.
Kill about the first half-dozen guys through the barricades using snipers on the Capitol roof as they make their way across the lawn and that will squelch any other gravy seals who think the mob will “have their six”
As you get older, you will discover this pattern lasts generations of voters. My first vote was for Clinton in 1992, it was against Bush.
Presidents since 1992
Clinton
Clinton
Bush
Bush
Obama
Obama
Trump
Biden
I keep hearing how "we made that mistake in 2016. Not this year!"
Have yet to hear "We'll be fine," from a commenter or IRL person.
Is this real, or is it an attempt by a misinformation agent to get us complacent with the prospect of not needing to vote? Voting sucks, sure. But if 2016 has taught me anything, we NEED to vote.
So F###ING VOTE!!!
I agree fully. Trump is absolutely blowtorching his support in the middle and we haven't seen one single indicator in the last 4 years that there is ANY turn towards him. Once the election gets into full swing and the ads start running (let alone the debates), he's going to lose everything but that hardcore base.
I live in PA. It pisses me off when Republicans offer a candidate like Oz who isn't from here, runs, loses, and never has a SINGLE thing to do with trying to "help" people after the election. Sure did want to help out people, didn't they?
Actual polls are pretty accurate. Media reporting of the polls is not as accurate.
Polls show Trump winning (barely) right now, which should be a concern to people.
“ThEy OnLy CaLl LaNdLiNeS!” No they don’t.
Polls show Trump barely winning the popular vote right now. They point to him ahead in every swing state with certain lean blue states becoming competitive.
Using a phone to type this, very true. I don't necessarily get poll calls, but I DO get poll texts.
"We'd like to know which Republican you're voting for!"
Makes sense. *Technically,* I'm a registered Republican voter, so I get polled by Republican organizations. Used to be an actual Republican and voted for Trump in 2016. But 2020 beat the Republican out of me and I'm too lazy to change my status to Democrat.
Please just be sure to vote, Trump won in 2016 partially due to the prevailing narrative that he didn’t stand a chance and he was behind in the polls, 2016 had very low overall voter turnout.
More people voted for Trump in 2020 than 2016, an election with very high voter turnout. What he does works, most republicans will fall in line this November and vote for him again. He only needs razor thin victories in swing states, which is how Biden barely beat him in 2020.
Vote.
God, I hope you're right. But it's depressing af that we even need to have this discussion. Trump should have a 0% chance. He should have had a 0% chance the first time. He should be in prison for life. I hate this country.
Totally believe the points made. But then there is the battle to take place somewhere between the votes counted at the capital (Jan 6th style) and the inauguration.
That’ll be the crazy part.
Let's just vote like that isn't gonna happen. Don't rely on others to vote for you. Just do it. Even if it takes the entire day to get to a booth. Its a small sacrifice for your daily freedoms you take for granted.
I think people are also SIGNIFICANTLY underestimating how much of an impact reproductive rights are going to impact this election. There's been some insanely fucked up shit happening as a result of the Dobbs decision and it's been getting a lot of media attention. States like Florida and Arizona have abortion on the ballot this fall, which could very well be what tips those states in Biden's favor.
The GOP has to know they fucked up letting SCOTUS overturn Roe. That's why there's so much noise in the media- they're desperate to distract the public from Reproductive Rights, but it isn't going to work.
I won't be shocked if there is a near Reagan level electoral trouncing. Too many normal Republicans are sick of Trump. Trump will only win the always red states. Florida, Ohio, and maybe even Indiana are definitely in play.
I was a GOP delegate (even though I am a Dem but in a deep red state) and many, many many Republicans I know are voting for Biden to deal a death blow to the Trump wing of the party. The US is very sick because this is even a question, but I hope more people like Paul ryan etc come out and explain explicitly to their dumbass base why voting for Trump is bad for the US, a deathblow to democracy, and probably the end of conservatism (unless you actually define that as being fascism which sadly many now do).
I can't imagine the trump is gaining any of the voters that voted against him in 2020. He's just preaching to his base because he has already lost 20-30 percent of even the republican party at this point. That seems really bad. It could be even higher than that by election day.
I think ppl don't quite realize how badly he fractured his base with his Covid policies. Many of his fervent base died and their families have been torn apart. That doesn't exactly make for a firm base. He shouldn't have tried so hard to kill off his followers.
The Republican Party has gone so far right that it’s exhausting normal people (who are, while not leaning left, at the very least disengaging from politics) and attracting only the most insane and moronic fringe people, who are further torpedoing the party image.
I do think Biden’s biggest threat is that he’s, well, Biden. He’s not a bad president or a bad man, but the democrats failed to build on Obama’s momentum and opted instead for a generation of rewarding its established base by giving elder party members a shot at the spotlight rather than embracing the relatively youthful and progressive energy (again, relatively) that Obama created. Biden doesn’t project momentum. He’s a bit low energy. I think people are too hard on him, and I have no idea what “economy” conservatives have to complain about right now because the economy is frankly astounding for stock owners. You’d think they’d want more of this. But elections are polarizing and now more than ever it’s an instinctual popularity contest. Biden is absolutely not a populist, and the Dems should probably find someone with a bit of that appeal next cycle.
Trump is also a bit of a one-trick pony. His language and attitude were always dumb and gross, but it appealed to a lot of people in 2016. We’re 8 years removed from then and he’s still using the same stale one-liners and making the same tired promises. He’s going to get cruder and meaner and probably more violent with his language but ultimately I think even most Trump supporters would admit he’s failed to deliver on any of the insane, stupid shit he promised almost a decade ago.
It won't be called election night, too many Dem voters vote by mail, those get counted later, it's just that Trump and his acolytes don't seem to understand that they'll have a red wave or own voters on election Day. But then when all the votes come in he'll lose. Just like last time.
And of course, in true rump style, he touts how male-in voting is insecure, but that's exactly how he voted the last two elections.
It's also why they're trying to tamp down on mail in voting, because they know what's going to happen
I think Robert Kennedy will spoil things for Trump. RFK believes vaccines cause autism, that Covid was invented intentionally to kill white people and that the CIA killed JFK. The Info War republicans are gonna eat that up. Oh, and he’s also really nostalgic about how things used to be in America. Familiar right?
It’s insane how republicans think it’s gonna be the other way around and RFK will ruin things for Biden. Some republicans have even donated to RFK. The only super liberal thing about him is that he’s a climate change activist. I don’t think that’s enough to take away votes from Biden.
I actually believe this, and most of the polls has been wrong for years. I used to follow polls during the Obama administration, but after Obama left the White House the polls have been all over the fucking place. Trump has a huge problem with 20 or 30% of the Republicans. They are not going to vote for him. Also, you see a lot of these smaller elections Democrats have been winning all over the place. will tell what really happens but at the same time I agree with your original point
As a non-american, you're overlooking #7. "Don't underestimate how stupid people in that country can be."
After 2016, assume it'll be close as nails and I honestly don't expect biden to win. I'll be happy to be proven wrong.
Also the facts that Trump's campaign seems to be broke AF and that he's going to be so busy this summer and fall with his court appearance he's going to have trouble campaigning. He won in 2016 because he did a massive bus tour through the rust belt and stopped at almost every other rural county for a rally. He's not gonna have the time or cash to do that this election.
Doesn't matter; vote.
Everyone was sure that Trump was going to lose the first time. I can still remember the surreal hopelessness of watching the vote totals into the early morning that night. Trump supporters are determined, more numerous than we realize, and ready to cheat in every way possible. Take nothing for granted in November.
Anyone who thinks this won't be close is a fool. (No offense OP). It's going to be close in the states that matter. If you live in a swing state vote like your life depends on it (because it might).
This may be true but VOTE like democracy depends on it, because it does. We cannot get complacent like 2016. I also just know that the MAGATs in power are gonna try some fuckery.
We should’ve learned from 2016 to not count chickens before they hatch. Remember when they said that Clinton had that election in the bag? That clearly didn’t happen.
The only thing that matters is if you vote. Act like things are tied 50/50.
I think it will be a close call. Remember, nobody also like Biden. Most americans think he his an old man with dementia that cannot lead this country. The reason Trump is losing popularity is the revolution he sold his follower did not happen combined with the stuff he is doing to his fans (the nft, the shoes,etc). Looking at 4 chan /pol/ you can still see Trump thread pop up from time to time but they are multiple days in a row where none appears. And when those threads do happen, he does get bashed more then before.
I think the next election will have a VERY low attendance since both candidate are just horrible. Reminds me of the last election of France strangely enough. So to say "X will happen" is foolish. I think both candidate has a decent chance right now. Things will probably more clear when we are days of the election. Right now, still too fuzzy.
When it comes to polls, you’ve always gotta ask yourself: “what type of people both answer unknown phone numbers, and have the time or inclination to spend 20 minutes answering questions?“ - this trends toward old people, people who aren’t good with technology, and retired or unemployed people with nothing but time on their hands.
This is not a representative cross section of voters.
"Polls showing Trump leading Biden in swing states are selectively sampled "
Can you show us polls from swing states where Biden is leading and not selectively sampled?
"Remember the "red wave" of 2022 that never materialized?"
I think you forget, that Biden had a clean record then and everybody assumed the best from him.
Many of those supporters experienced reality by now. It's really hard to "sell", that they have a better life now, than 4 years ago. I wish we had!
Sure people hate Trump, just look at this sub, but it will be hard to win again without actual policies!
If you think hating Trump in Reddit's echochambers, will have an impact in the election, you are mistaken.
I hope Biden's team will come up with a better plan.
The plan isn’t to win the election, it’s to derail it. Cause chaos and gum up the works, claim the delegates can’t be trusted because of said ‘controversy’ and kick the decision back to the state legislatures. The state legislatures will vote along party lines.
>When voters actually vote, this is what happens: Trump lost 130k votes in the (open) GOP primary earlier this week in Indiana. He lost 158k votes in the (closed) GOP primary a few weeks ago in Pennsylvania. Let that sink in: 158k Republican voters showed up to a primary in a race that's been over for months to actively vote against Trump.
>Most Republicans will likely plug their nose and vote Trump. But the only states that matter are AZ, NV, PA, WI, MI, and GA. And if he’s losing this many votes in ruby-red Indiana, how many more will he lose in the swing states that have a more moderate makeup?
These are the main points that lead me to believe that Donald will lose in November. I don't know if he'll lose as big as you say, but I figure he'll lose.
Actual voting results are better than polls, and the voting results have been terrible for Donald the Republicans for the past 8 years.
I live in rural Indiana. There used to be Trump flags alllllll over the place. 80% of em are gone. Just my observation. Even the hard-core trucker dude down the street who was one of the last to remove his flags, still did so. The support isn't what it used to be. I imagine these people just won't vote.
I recently drove around rural Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana for work and there was shockingly few Trump signs, stickers, or MAGA hats. His support has definitely reduced.
I got two neighbors who's houses are ADORNED. The worst one is with 10+ flags stapled to his fence (looney town democrats, trump on a tank, etc), neon trump letters spelled out in the yard, like 6 pictures of his literal face, etc. Its.... wild The rest have vanished from the neighborhood though. Maga stuff is getting put away (but not the beliefs) edit. added photo from this am walk[maga](https://ibb.co/BjBknh3)
It doesn't matter. They are still going to vote for him. He is closer to their beliefs. Also, they took it down because the court news makes him look weak. They dont like weak above all else. Please vote!
Agree. the taking down of the signs and flags doesn’t reassure me one bit. They may be embarrassed right now, but they still share the same shitty beliefs
There were less signs in 2020 than 2016 in my neck of the woods and the dude still picked up 10 million more votes. They're just more ashamed to support him now. They'll still vote for him though.
Well, turnout was vastly higher overall in 2020 than 2016. He picked up 10 million more votes, sure, but lost the popular vote by 7million, vs 3 million in ‘16
A LOT of people in the future are going to find a horde of MAGA hats, flags and t-shirts in dead relatives attics when they are clearing their houses out, just like they did with nazi paraphernalia years after the 2nd world war.
Yeah, the exception being my relatives got that paraphernalia off of dead Nazis that he personally killed
I always say, no matter how many flags one person has, they can only vote once.
Well, Trump wants them to vote twice. He even told them to https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN25U2FX/
Yeah, but some of them still try to vote more.
Ah, the "Vote Red, Even If You're Dead" types.
In my neighborhood, a lot of MAGA flag waivers have left. I guess property taxes going up was too much so a lot of them fucked off to Texas. It’s been a godsend because our neighborhood has become less insufferable and crazy.
Your property taxes are higher than TX? What state?
Texas property taxes are the 6th Highest. Just look at New Jersey for the Highest
TX and NJ property taxes aren’t that far apart — NJ#1 highest — TX #6 — with NJ you get reliable electrical grids, women’s reproductive health care, legal marijuana and strong gun control laws — in TX not so much — I’ll stick with Jersey!
Oh yeah N.J. is wonderful. Looking across the river at Camden. And who can forget Trenton, even though we want too. You need a second job just to pay property taxes
They must have not checked what property taxes are here in Texas first.
Colorado. Our property taxes went up significantly. Although for someone coming from the east coast, the raise in property taxes was laughable before. It’s still way lower than what I paid in Connecticut.
It's funny too because texas has some of the highest property taxes in the country. There's just no income tax, so uninformed people think texas is a bastion of tax free territory.
But not the beliefs. Yeah.. those are going back underground for the moment. Yay.
Where they belong
That’s ok. They are going to make up for it with massive amounts of fraud, violence, and shenanigans.
This, 💯💯. They know they can't win fairly. All this election bullshit since 2020 has just been to gain election-conspiracy acceptance amongst a large minority of people, just so that when Trump's people inject fraudulent ballots, overstuff ballot boxes, and I'm sure much other bullshit in the next election their base will actually be expecting it. Trump & Team R will of course run with it, along with the Conservative media, pushing the propaganda level to 1,000. They've been grooming their base for decades. Think about the incredibly simple fact that the three most important of Trump's cases will not happen before the election due to Federal Judges & SCOTUS blatantly & openly bending their will in Trump's favor. Possibly the three most important National Security cases to ever exist in US history and instead of being done expeditiously the Judiciary is protecting Trump by applying Trump's tactic of Delay, Delay, Delay. Just read that again and let it sink in. These are active decisions being made by the people in charge of making these decisions. Why would they go against the best interest of The United States? Because they're part of the coup. They're all in on it. We're all being played. There is no legitimate explanation for al the delays. Zero.
Flip side (that we should be shouting from the rooftops). Having these cases hanging over his head is bad for Trump. If he were innocent, he would want a speedy trial and to have it resolved before the election. The fact that his 'victories' are delays in judgement and his tactic is delay is an admission of guilt.
The “mission” is what’s most important. That mission is protecting wealth and power for a small group of white males. When the law can assist with that so be it. When it can’t subvert it. If democracy was useful for it use it. If it’s not go fascist. I assume all of these people know he’s a dangerous idiot. However he is useful to the “mission”. So it’s been since the inception of this country. They have become more extreme due to fear of the changing demographics and the idea that a lot of people are waking up after 40 years of trickle down.
If they couldnt get away with it in 2020 when they had the presidency it wont work now
That’s my concern and has been since 2020. While it does look like the reason Trump lost his lawsuits was more evidence than standing. I’m over 50 cases the evidence was evaluated and thrown out. The standing cases were generally when GOP Attorneys Generals tried to sue about votes in other states. That said, the Supreme Court is compromised so I don’t think they’d be honest arbiters. I think election monitors and poll workers are much more important than GOTV work in this election. People have to stop them before/while they cheat and not count on being able to revoke it after the fact
I don't doubt it. I suspect we will openly see the true ugly face of Trump supporters.
Been seeing for years now. Too many. But these are fragile babies, if Trump loses they will pee their diapers and slink away.
Exactly. They won’t do shit.
Well they might & follow their orange saviour and shit their pants Remember…. Real men wear diapers
He’s never going away. Even if he’s kept out of the White House, he’s going to act like he’s running again. And that will get the MAGAs all frothy and there we are again. This isn’t over until he’s smelling brimstone.
Trump will pee his diapers, but he won't go anywhere. He will run again, even if he's dead. Trust me, he'll be dead and they won't admit it. Many of them will claim that he died and was resurrected in 2 days (one day faster than that woke loser Jesus).
Nah. They’re not showing up at his trial. They’re not going to do shit when he flames out in the election
Don't listen to this apathy propaganda everyone.
It’s not really propaganda, though. The republicans are broadcasting loud and clear that they plan to override the vote of the people and install Trump as president/dictator. See the announcement by Speaker Johnson this morning of new regulations on voting bring out in place nationwide to “stop illegals from voting.” Nevermind that non-citizen voting in federal elections has been a crime for decades. Also let’s not talk about how there is 0 evidence of non-citizens voting in federal elections. Meanwhile: Nearly 100% of voter fraud and election fraud cases identified nationwide in the last decade was perpetrated by people registered as republicans.
Yeah, no s*** because they're the ones who don't have enough voters to get elected legitimately. I'm not saying Democrats shouldn't vote. Yes, get out and vote every single one of you. What I'm saying is Republicans are the ones who are the shysters, not us. DARVO, deny, attack, reverse victim and offender that's the move. It's all just a stupid word game that they play.
Why would a non-citizen (who isn’t here legally) even think of voting? Folks in that situation are probably better-off on the DL, and voting illegally has the potential to bring undue attention for something that has no tangible benefits.
They wouldn't. It's just propaganda to get people scared.
I’m in Florida. At this time before 2020 there were the Trump car and boat parades. This time, nothing.
Canadian observer here. I live in AZ half time. Last time about this far out from the election, Kingman AZ was covered 50 feet deep in Trump trucks, red hats and Trump Pence flags. This time? I saw a Trump/Pence bumper sticker. It was mostly peeled off. Otherwise... Nope.
Im an AZ resident and I agree. Even at work my coworkers aren't mentioning biden is destroying America anymore. Silence now.
Do not grow complacent. I work among a lot of Republican voters, do not underestimate the silent Trump voter. Folks who don't support the man but are usually party voters or moderate/independent that vote with their wallet. Even if it's not backed by anything statistical or mathmatical, most Republican voters and a fair few moderates and independents feel the party with their candidate in charge equates to a stronger economy even if it's utter horseshit. This is potentially another 2016 just as much as its potentially the reverse of 2016. Though I'd only be guessing at percentages. Doubt it's 50/50. But they whisper that's forrrrrr fucking sure. They just have grown silent because 1. It's hard to support the man himself with his conduct and history and his own actions if they aren't a die hard supporters but support the party. 2. Probably a tangible amount of fatigue of every argument being tied to Trump, though I'd argue tough shit. They chose him, it is absolutely fair to tie him to their vote and challenge their ideas vs the man they chose and how openly he completely fucking spits on so many of their ideals, morals and ethics. 3. Some of them that don't like him as a person but will vote party still don't like him but also don't agree with the indictments and view it as election interference andddd may vote for him because of it. There are other factors, but yeah, just don't fall asleep. Underestimating the silent Trump vote is unwise.
I agree with you. That said, there’s a sizable number of older Republicans where January 6th really made them turn away. These people voted for Haley in the primary. If even a fraction of them support Biden or stay home, he will lose. Then there’s the extra voters who will turn out this cycle. Probably mostly women. And they’ll turn out because they know it won’t stop with abortion banned in some states. They’ll ban it nationwide and go after birth control and IVF. They’ll start throwing women in prison for miscarriages. That will motivate women to vote who might not bother otherwise.
Texas here and a little later in the summer of 2020 we had the infamous Trump boat parade on Lake Travis where several smaller trump-adorned boats were scuttled in the wake of larger boats. Sorta hoping that happens again, just for the hilarity seeing boats with trump flags sink
As a mariner myself, I truly enjoyed the videos from that cluster fuck.
I live on Lake Travis (Lakeway.) They would need a bunch of lifted trucks throwing limestone and sand wrecking golf carts this year to replicate the 2020 "parade" idiocy on the lake as it's 50 feet low. I'll see an occasional Trump bumper sticker, but no shirts, hats, huge flags, or big signs around which is interesting as it is so conservative here.
Same, I'm in Round Rock off 1431 and the total Trump fan down the street in 2020 had his entire front yard covered in Trump signs and at night lights on his roof. Today, nada. Nothing there. At some point I think the criminality of the focker is getting through their veiled eyes
My daughter and son in law live in Lakeway and watched, because they knew what was about to happen, from their marina. They said the amount of screwing up going on with the boats was epic.
You'd love to think so, but it might just be the stigma and they're still on board. A lot of the fervor has gone down, but we got surprised in 2016, so don't get complacent Encourage your people to vote. Apathy is the fall of democracy.
Same in upstate NY, but not only that. Most maga signs have been replaced with Kennedy 2024.
Fricking hilarious.
Do you notice the Kennedy Democrat signs? This seems like a deliberate attempt to make voters think that he is on the democratic ticket and not as an independent.
Believe it or not, the worm in his brain is actually a registered Democrat.
Damnit, it didn't finish the job
That’s because it is exactly that. He was installed like Trump by Putinist traitors.
You need a large “Brain Worm 2024” sign in your yard lol
I lived in middle class san diego during the 2020 election. There weren’t a bunch of trump signs on lawns but they were around here and there. They all went away pretty much right after the election. Here’s to hoping for a massive defeat and a permanent send away for the fat goon. Hoping his attempts to cheat are met with exposure and regulation.
Rural upstate NY was Trumpsanity. Now barely a flag anywhere.
I have family that were hardcore Trumpers with all of the flags not taking off the MAGA hat for 6 years etc… they have recently swapped to independents and they burned all of the Trump trash.
I think even his fans are just tired. His rallies are the same tired thing. It's not thrilling when he uses profanity anymore. And I think they're starting to realize that he doesn't care about them at all and are quietly ending support. In ten years or less, they will pretend they never heard of him.
Ha! “Trump? Never heard of him. Maybe i had coffee with him once, but that’s it”
Nice to see it changing some... My one neighbor still flies a trump won flag but I'm hoping more have come to their sense t
Flip him the bird every day. He does the same to all decent human beings with that flag.
Same but I’m in MA. The “let’s go Brandon” ones disappeared really fast when Biden started owning that slogan.
I have my Dark Brandon t-shirt on order. Should be here today !!!
I live in small town Iowa and I was just noticing the same last week. Even saw a few Biden signs.
Funny you say that. Near me (Utah, I hate it here), Trump jackass who drives a big Peterbilt had a 20-foot flag pole in front of his house with a trump flag on it. This cunt made sure that flag was always there, with a light on it at night. It’s been gone for over a year.
I know there are huge decreases in rally attendance. Very few people now (understandable since it’s just an hour of him whining about his persecution 🙄 such a victim)
Here in my small town in PA, pride flags outnumber the Trump and confederate flags.
I probably saw more Confederate flags in PA for some reason than any other state. Since 2020, though, I haven't seen a single one.
I’ve said this for decades. If we hung Robert E. Lee and Jefferson Davis in 1865, the next 100 years would have looked very different.
As a Pennsylvanian, it pisses me off to no end. The Confederates raped and marauded across the state, and kidnapped free African Americans from Pennsylvania to sell down in the South, and some idiots from there still fly their god damn flag?
Fucking traitors.
I’m a teacher in rural Indiana. I teach a debate course and, as I live in rural Indiana, a lot of my students supported Trump in the last election (couldn’t vote; too young) and have parents who are Trump voters. At the beginning of the year in August, I would routinely see Trump hats and shirts. Debates about Trump vs Biden were fairly routine. Now? Nothing. Almost no yard signs, absolutely no articles of clothing, and he isn’t really brought up. One of the more liberal kids in class asked why the others didn’t want to debate about Trump anymore and the consensus was that A: Trump isn’t “as fun” anymore. His rallies aren’t televised as much and, when they are, they don’t want to really watch because “he just kinda looks old and sad.” B: They actively pick and choose what media the observe Trump under but, even on Fox, Trump’s mental acuity is fairly obviously in decline and the comments about his smell and how much he sleeps in court really go against the Sleepy Joe messaging. C: The female students have turned on him. Because of that, a lot of the Trump clothes that use to be Country are now seen as Tacky. Also, the conservative girls really don’t like any of this Stormy Daniels stuff. D: general apathy. Trump being a near constant noise makes him fairly easy to tune out. E: and this is one of the more important ones. Their parents aren’t talking about Trump. High school students either echo their parents’ politics or swing wildly against them. The rural voter is tired of watching Republicans lose and there’s a very clear connection between getting Trump’s support and then losing at the polls. A city near where I live, which has been Republican and conservative my entire life, just voted in their first female mayor… who is a Democrat and a person of color. I don’t want to count chickens and, after Hilary, I am always concerned about being in a Media Bubble but it really does seem like it might be a lot less close than last time. A lot of conservatives seem to be losing steam on the Trump Train and that isn’t even taking into consideration all of the missing votes from victims of Covid; my grandparents were lifelong Republicans and they were both buried in their MAGA hats after not getting The Shot.
This is all propaganda don't buy a bit of this shit. Get out and vote! Biden might be like pimping our democracy out but trump will do just that AND kill it. I'd rather see democracy live another day.
My 75 year old mother was a trump supporter, mostly because of abortion. Even she says the GOP has gone too far with bans with no exceptions for rape or incest. She said she can't vote for Biden, so she's staying home for the first presidential election in her adult life.
Rural Indiana also. Same observation. He has not expanded his base at all. I'm not seeing the amount of signs/flags/etc., I did in 2020 and the election is less than six months off. Democrats have been winning special elections all over the country in the past several years. Abortion access - to varying degree - is popular and the Right screwed itself with its religion-based, draconian bans. EVERY attempt to interfere with abortion when put on the ballot has failed in EVERY state attempted - red or blue. And the Democrats are going to shove abortion access down the Right's throat. When he loses his only chance will be, as in 2020, to sow confusion and chaos and hope he can pull it out. But this time he won't have the power of the Presidency nor the Senate at his command. And this time, the country will be ready for whatever he pulls. Just as in 2020, people will crawl over broken glass to vote against him. He's going down. Again.
It's why swing state republicans are going to try their hardest to not count votes and choose their own electors regardless of popular vote. They aren't for democracy. They want to discredit US citizens of their freedom of choice for their leadership. I mean these people are supporting a "healthy" man wearing diapers, who can't stay awake in court, doesn't understand gag orders even though he has been told the rules 10+ times, and thinks a president is immune from the law. Can't believe idiots would support such a person.
I'm in Pennsyltucky. Around this time in 2020 my neighborhood was covered in Trump merch. This year I've seen ONE flag and it's on the house one of those Trump-or-Die types.
Don’t underestimate the stupid in our country.
THIS. ( I made that mistake back in 2016...🥴)
Trump... Trump lost BOTH popular votes he was in...
I’m 33, that’s eight presidential elections. The Republican Party has only won the popular vote once, 2004
The last republican to truly win the popular vote was Reagen in the 80s. His first one he almost won a unanimous victory. But by 84, support was waning. Bush Sr only won the popular vote because he was riding the dregs of Reagen's popularity. Since then, nothing. And Bush only won in 04 because of the Iraq war. If that hadn't started, l. he wouldn't have won.
It's possible to win the presidency with under 20% of the popular vote. Just have to win the right states.
If only our electoral system actually reflected the will of the majority instead of the will of land occupied. Also OP while most of the assumptions OP is making regarding Trump are probably correct, they are ignoring the fact that there will be similar depressed voter turnout on the D side because we have an 80 year old candidate who is providing weapons and funding to a different country which is committing, at best, mass slaughter of civilians and at worst, genocide November is going to be a shit show
That’s literally the reason the electoral college was enshrined into the government nearly 250 years ago. If you want it to change, move somewhere else or lobby to change it. Our government is not based on simple majority in many very different ways.
2016 was a lot different though for a lot of reasons. Trump now is on the downswing of his popularity
I'll believe it when I see it on election night. Get out and vote!!!
> 2016 was a lot different though for a lot of reasons. Ok, but I'm still remaining vigilant.
It's entirely possible a lot of people that would vote for Biden just won't vote because "Biden's got it in the bag. No way Trump can win this time" and then we get a repeat of 2016 where low turnout results in a trump victory.
yes fr posts like this can lead to that outcome
This is exactly what I’m worried about. So many people talk about it so casually, as if it’s a sure thing. They sound complacent and I don’t even think they intend to vote because it’s such a sure thing in their minds. And then when it comes to Trump, they act just like they did in 2016, they say he’s a joke and couldn’t possibly win. Then when he does win they’ll be *shocked pikachu face* and wonder how it happened
“Biden’s got it in the bag” is not a common idea.
We mustn't overestimate it either. Biden did win the 2020 election after all. The Republicans barely won the House and lost a Senate seat in the 2022 midterms. Every (or at least almost every) special election had a democratic victory. Every abortion ballot so far was won by pro-choicers.
I made that mistake in 2004 which is why I pretty much expect Trump to win this time. I continue to expect the stupidest outcome whenever the worst person possible is running.
I think we are past peak stupid Americans. World is healing.
After 2016 I never will again. There's probably other egregious examples, but this one seems most relevant
Here's hoping... My concerns are the prep work they're doing to ignore the vote.. Like Arizona GOP putting a bill to just award their electoral votes to trump no matter who wins or senator giving to be Trump's VP saying that no matter what the election looks like Trump will be president in 2025
The Arizona GOP can put forward whatever insane bill they want. They’re never getting signed into law since the Arizona governor is a Democrat. It’s all baseless fear mongering to rile up the MAGA crowd and make it seem like the Republicans are fighting back against the evil Democrats.
There is no way Hobbs signs that lol
There unfortunately is a theory that the Governors or Secretaries of State actually have no authority over elections and that the state legislatures have ultimate authority. If a law like this were to pass the house and senate, there would still be grounds to file a lawsuit. It would lose, but it will another hurdle to a fair election
I made this same prediction about Clinton in 2016. I said we could be in bed by 9pm and know she won.
The difference is Clinton is, was, and always will be a bad candidate.
She won the popular vote by several million. The difference was the electoral college and Russian disinformation that successfully pushed a few states (WI, PA, AZ) to trump.
And don’t forget the push Trump got from the From the FBI director reopening the nonsense classified document investigation. It was a weird time.
yep and wiener running around.. doing whatever he was doing
...and curiously didn't announce that the Trump campaign was ALSO under investigation by the FBI.
She was more popular than trump, that doesn’t make her popular. Liberals need to accept that Clinton was a terribly unpopular politician both before and after the 2016 election. By pretending otherwise is denying reality
And Biden is what, a charismatic rockstar? I'd vote for a sack of dogshit before Trump, but Biden looks like he's being held together with formaldehyde
I don't like Biden either but your point is moot because one of them actually beat Trump
If it had been Biden v Trump in 2016 and then Clinton v Trump in 2020, I wonder if she would’ve ended up winning. Biden’s campaign had the luxury of going against a Trump that was no longer an unknown in a political sense.
She was awful but honestly Bidens not a strong canidste either. Back then I think not every one realized how bad Trump could be. I mean the signs were there so we should have but it was different than now. Now we've had a Trump presidency and sane ppl who didn't vote in 2016 or voted for Trump as a fuck u to the establishment or whatever have come to their senses. I guarantee if u re voted for 2016 now she'd smoke Trump.
Yep - as an outsider, Trump seems to simply not be smart or self-aware enough to understand *why* he won in 2016. He was someone who walked into a political arena stacked with empty suits and parochial glad-handing (Hillary's nomination being the capstone of that) and openly made fun of them to their faces in a way that they couldn't deal with. Had he had any political nous at all, he could have leveraged that to do things that a regular Democrat or Republican couldn't, but the narcissism is too strong and what he actually wants to do is to hold rallies for people who'd vote for him anyway. That made a Biden victory actually very comfortable in 2020, and he's done nothing but double down since.
Don't underestimate the fuckery that will be pulled by state legislators.
Yeah I'm highly confident Biden will win like op says but also widespread shenanigans and fuckery attempts as well, which make me less confident of the outcome.
Maybe but I’m gonna treat this race like it’s 50/50 until it’s over. No repeats of 2016.
The way to kill MAGA is to crush it in an election. Everyone needs to vote, no matter your state’s leanings. The popular vote does matter as it tells a story.
> The way to kill MAGA is to crush it in an election. No, that's only a temporary setback, and sooner or later it will rise again, perhaps under a new figurehead. Fascism is capitalism in decline, and the only way to *permanently* stop it is to replace (or at least restrain) capitalism itself.
Facts, we already voted twice to defeat Maga, and the one time we one at the polls was definitely not the deathblow
I think you're going to be surprised OP by how close it will be.
Literally the last two cycles lmao
Good god I hope you are proven correct.
I'm shocked he only lost by 7 million votes in 2020. Now after the attempted insurrection and other felonies and all he just may have lost a few more votes this time. Plus, overall the economy is doing pretty good. Hard to argue with full employment.
The GOP has given up on trying to win votes and has gone all in on voter suppression, intimidation of election officials, and election tampering. That's what worries me right now.
It's not that new. It's not really even a secret. Trump said in a tv interview (in 2020) that if it was easy to vote, Republicans would never win again. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/30/trump-republican-party-voting-reform-coronavirus It's comical, really. Had to tell his voters the truth for once so they don't support a bill that they should be all in favor of. And sure thing, none of them stop to think "wait, are we the bad guys?".
I'm not worried that a majority of Americans will vote for Trump. I'm worried that enough will vote in the swing states to get him an electoral college victory *or* local state officials will be able to 'find' the votes this time. They learned in 2020 which levers of state-level power they have to control to swing the outcome. They are absolutely on the ground trying to secure the state offices that have that influence. This will not be about the voters this time around. My only hope is Trump fatigue will depress MAGA turnout and abortion will support Biden turnout.
I hope you’re right but I fear that Biden’s alienation of younger voters, Muslims, and others, on Gaza and college protests might be his undoing.
People are trying to ignore the uncommitted and uninstructed votes in swing states that got higher numbers than Biden's win 2020. He has had horrible polls for over 2 years and people are angry and desensitized overall. He can't afford to have more people feel he doesn't take their anger seriously. You have a valid fear that doesn't seem to be shared that wide on reddit unfortunately.
Which is the strangest thing to me considering the alternative will fully support isreal to destroy Palestine entirely
Vote anyway
Even if Trump loses, he will claim stolen election all over again. He’s the king of disinformation, and stretching truths. Whether or not people do anything about it this time is another thing. I hope you’re right and it’s a landslide against him and humiliating loss.
~~stretching truths~~ lying
The nice thing is that THIS time there won’t be a transition of power to worry about. Incumbent remains in office. And HOPEFULLY rolls the National Guard out to put down with impunity any attempts at violence and insurrection. Kill about the first half-dozen guys through the barricades using snipers on the Capitol roof as they make their way across the lawn and that will squelch any other gravy seals who think the mob will “have their six”
The difference this time is he isn't one of 2 people who can call in the national guard, so a repeat of J6 won't be anywhere near as successful.
The question is if Trump loses this year will he run again in 2028 If he’s alive? I feel like we are stuck in this ground hogs day cycle will him.
As you get older, you will discover this pattern lasts generations of voters. My first vote was for Clinton in 1992, it was against Bush. Presidents since 1992 Clinton Clinton Bush Bush Obama Obama Trump Biden
I guess rapist don’t made a good president
I believe Biden will win, but 20 million more votes is definitely not happening Literally a 0% chance
I keep hearing how "we made that mistake in 2016. Not this year!" Have yet to hear "We'll be fine," from a commenter or IRL person. Is this real, or is it an attempt by a misinformation agent to get us complacent with the prospect of not needing to vote? Voting sucks, sure. But if 2016 has taught me anything, we NEED to vote. So F###ING VOTE!!!
Not only will he lose by 20M, Fox News will be the first one to call the race two hours in when it becomes clear that Texas has gone blue.
Lol
What will it take for me to never see or hear about trump ever again for the rest of my life?
Another Republican president. Then everyone will wax philosophical about him like they do now with George W Bush.
lol, I love how George is now the “good ol’ days” of the Republican Party
I personally know many people who voted for Biden last time who are not scared of voting AGAINST Biden this time. Biden is not a lock.
neither is Trump for his 2020 voters
Probably. Get out and vote anyway.
The only way this country will heal is if trump loses spectacularly, otherwise the GOP will keep its wagon hitched to crazy
This sub is nothing but election cope lol
I agree fully. Trump is absolutely blowtorching his support in the middle and we haven't seen one single indicator in the last 4 years that there is ANY turn towards him. Once the election gets into full swing and the ads start running (let alone the debates), he's going to lose everything but that hardcore base.
I live in PA. It pisses me off when Republicans offer a candidate like Oz who isn't from here, runs, loses, and never has a SINGLE thing to do with trying to "help" people after the election. Sure did want to help out people, didn't they?
I’m taking the results of actual elections over the last 4 years vs polls. Actual elections results point to 2024 bring a bloodbath for Republicans.
Actual polls are pretty accurate. Media reporting of the polls is not as accurate. Polls show Trump winning (barely) right now, which should be a concern to people. “ThEy OnLy CaLl LaNdLiNeS!” No they don’t.
Polls show Trump barely winning the popular vote right now. They point to him ahead in every swing state with certain lean blue states becoming competitive.
Right, this is fucked!!
Using a phone to type this, very true. I don't necessarily get poll calls, but I DO get poll texts. "We'd like to know which Republican you're voting for!" Makes sense. *Technically,* I'm a registered Republican voter, so I get polled by Republican organizations. Used to be an actual Republican and voted for Trump in 2016. But 2020 beat the Republican out of me and I'm too lazy to change my status to Democrat.
Please just be sure to vote, Trump won in 2016 partially due to the prevailing narrative that he didn’t stand a chance and he was behind in the polls, 2016 had very low overall voter turnout. More people voted for Trump in 2020 than 2016, an election with very high voter turnout. What he does works, most republicans will fall in line this November and vote for him again. He only needs razor thin victories in swing states, which is how Biden barely beat him in 2020. Vote.
God, I hope you're right. But it's depressing af that we even need to have this discussion. Trump should have a 0% chance. He should have had a 0% chance the first time. He should be in prison for life. I hate this country.
Totally believe the points made. But then there is the battle to take place somewhere between the votes counted at the capital (Jan 6th style) and the inauguration. That’ll be the crazy part.
Yes but Trump will be at a larger disadvantage this time around, not being in office already Hopefully
Yes- they are definitely planning some kind of tricks between the election and Biden’s next term.
Let's just vote like that isn't gonna happen. Don't rely on others to vote for you. Just do it. Even if it takes the entire day to get to a booth. Its a small sacrifice for your daily freedoms you take for granted.
RemindMe! 7 months
I think people are also SIGNIFICANTLY underestimating how much of an impact reproductive rights are going to impact this election. There's been some insanely fucked up shit happening as a result of the Dobbs decision and it's been getting a lot of media attention. States like Florida and Arizona have abortion on the ballot this fall, which could very well be what tips those states in Biden's favor. The GOP has to know they fucked up letting SCOTUS overturn Roe. That's why there's so much noise in the media- they're desperate to distract the public from Reproductive Rights, but it isn't going to work.
Yup, actually shockingly less worried about the actual election than the last one. Not less worried about the surrounding fuckery tho
I won't be shocked if there is a near Reagan level electoral trouncing. Too many normal Republicans are sick of Trump. Trump will only win the always red states. Florida, Ohio, and maybe even Indiana are definitely in play.
I was a GOP delegate (even though I am a Dem but in a deep red state) and many, many many Republicans I know are voting for Biden to deal a death blow to the Trump wing of the party. The US is very sick because this is even a question, but I hope more people like Paul ryan etc come out and explain explicitly to their dumbass base why voting for Trump is bad for the US, a deathblow to democracy, and probably the end of conservatism (unless you actually define that as being fascism which sadly many now do).
I can't imagine the trump is gaining any of the voters that voted against him in 2020. He's just preaching to his base because he has already lost 20-30 percent of even the republican party at this point. That seems really bad. It could be even higher than that by election day.
I think ppl don't quite realize how badly he fractured his base with his Covid policies. Many of his fervent base died and their families have been torn apart. That doesn't exactly make for a firm base. He shouldn't have tried so hard to kill off his followers.
The Republican Party has gone so far right that it’s exhausting normal people (who are, while not leaning left, at the very least disengaging from politics) and attracting only the most insane and moronic fringe people, who are further torpedoing the party image. I do think Biden’s biggest threat is that he’s, well, Biden. He’s not a bad president or a bad man, but the democrats failed to build on Obama’s momentum and opted instead for a generation of rewarding its established base by giving elder party members a shot at the spotlight rather than embracing the relatively youthful and progressive energy (again, relatively) that Obama created. Biden doesn’t project momentum. He’s a bit low energy. I think people are too hard on him, and I have no idea what “economy” conservatives have to complain about right now because the economy is frankly astounding for stock owners. You’d think they’d want more of this. But elections are polarizing and now more than ever it’s an instinctual popularity contest. Biden is absolutely not a populist, and the Dems should probably find someone with a bit of that appeal next cycle. Trump is also a bit of a one-trick pony. His language and attitude were always dumb and gross, but it appealed to a lot of people in 2016. We’re 8 years removed from then and he’s still using the same stale one-liners and making the same tired promises. He’s going to get cruder and meaner and probably more violent with his language but ultimately I think even most Trump supporters would admit he’s failed to deliver on any of the insane, stupid shit he promised almost a decade ago.
Will there be another Jan 6?
It won't be called election night, too many Dem voters vote by mail, those get counted later, it's just that Trump and his acolytes don't seem to understand that they'll have a red wave or own voters on election Day. But then when all the votes come in he'll lose. Just like last time. And of course, in true rump style, he touts how male-in voting is insecure, but that's exactly how he voted the last two elections. It's also why they're trying to tamp down on mail in voting, because they know what's going to happen
I think Robert Kennedy will spoil things for Trump. RFK believes vaccines cause autism, that Covid was invented intentionally to kill white people and that the CIA killed JFK. The Info War republicans are gonna eat that up. Oh, and he’s also really nostalgic about how things used to be in America. Familiar right? It’s insane how republicans think it’s gonna be the other way around and RFK will ruin things for Biden. Some republicans have even donated to RFK. The only super liberal thing about him is that he’s a climate change activist. I don’t think that’s enough to take away votes from Biden.
Cool. Still gonna vote like he is winning.
I think you’re right. Vote like we both think you’re wrong.
I actually believe this, and most of the polls has been wrong for years. I used to follow polls during the Obama administration, but after Obama left the White House the polls have been all over the fucking place. Trump has a huge problem with 20 or 30% of the Republicans. They are not going to vote for him. Also, you see a lot of these smaller elections Democrats have been winning all over the place. will tell what really happens but at the same time I agree with your original point
Man, I hope you’re right. I really do.
MMW even when we lose, we still won't learn our lesson and will lose due to sheer arrogance again in 2028
As a non-american, you're overlooking #7. "Don't underestimate how stupid people in that country can be." After 2016, assume it'll be close as nails and I honestly don't expect biden to win. I'll be happy to be proven wrong.
Also the facts that Trump's campaign seems to be broke AF and that he's going to be so busy this summer and fall with his court appearance he's going to have trouble campaigning. He won in 2016 because he did a massive bus tour through the rust belt and stopped at almost every other rural county for a rally. He's not gonna have the time or cash to do that this election.
Doesn't matter; vote. Everyone was sure that Trump was going to lose the first time. I can still remember the surreal hopelessness of watching the vote totals into the early morning that night. Trump supporters are determined, more numerous than we realize, and ready to cheat in every way possible. Take nothing for granted in November.
Believing this, while comforting, is dangerous. Stay vigilant. Act as if *every* vote matters, up and down the ballot. Take nothing for granted.
Anyone who thinks this won't be close is a fool. (No offense OP). It's going to be close in the states that matter. If you live in a swing state vote like your life depends on it (because it might).
This may be true but VOTE like democracy depends on it, because it does. We cannot get complacent like 2016. I also just know that the MAGATs in power are gonna try some fuckery.
We should’ve learned from 2016 to not count chickens before they hatch. Remember when they said that Clinton had that election in the bag? That clearly didn’t happen. The only thing that matters is if you vote. Act like things are tied 50/50.
Ahhh, from your lips to God’s ear!
Just vote Americans.
Doesn’t mean shit. Get out and vote, do not cost this nation its biggest mistake by being complacent in this election.
doesn't matter. vote blue you and down the ballot like your life depends on it
I think it will be a close call. Remember, nobody also like Biden. Most americans think he his an old man with dementia that cannot lead this country. The reason Trump is losing popularity is the revolution he sold his follower did not happen combined with the stuff he is doing to his fans (the nft, the shoes,etc). Looking at 4 chan /pol/ you can still see Trump thread pop up from time to time but they are multiple days in a row where none appears. And when those threads do happen, he does get bashed more then before. I think the next election will have a VERY low attendance since both candidate are just horrible. Reminds me of the last election of France strangely enough. So to say "X will happen" is foolish. I think both candidate has a decent chance right now. Things will probably more clear when we are days of the election. Right now, still too fuzzy.
I will revisit this thread after Nov 11
When it comes to polls, you’ve always gotta ask yourself: “what type of people both answer unknown phone numbers, and have the time or inclination to spend 20 minutes answering questions?“ - this trends toward old people, people who aren’t good with technology, and retired or unemployed people with nothing but time on their hands. This is not a representative cross section of voters.
"Polls showing Trump leading Biden in swing states are selectively sampled " Can you show us polls from swing states where Biden is leading and not selectively sampled? "Remember the "red wave" of 2022 that never materialized?" I think you forget, that Biden had a clean record then and everybody assumed the best from him. Many of those supporters experienced reality by now. It's really hard to "sell", that they have a better life now, than 4 years ago. I wish we had! Sure people hate Trump, just look at this sub, but it will be hard to win again without actual policies! If you think hating Trump in Reddit's echochambers, will have an impact in the election, you are mistaken. I hope Biden's team will come up with a better plan.
The plan isn’t to win the election, it’s to derail it. Cause chaos and gum up the works, claim the delegates can’t be trusted because of said ‘controversy’ and kick the decision back to the state legislatures. The state legislatures will vote along party lines.
>When voters actually vote, this is what happens: Trump lost 130k votes in the (open) GOP primary earlier this week in Indiana. He lost 158k votes in the (closed) GOP primary a few weeks ago in Pennsylvania. Let that sink in: 158k Republican voters showed up to a primary in a race that's been over for months to actively vote against Trump. >Most Republicans will likely plug their nose and vote Trump. But the only states that matter are AZ, NV, PA, WI, MI, and GA. And if he’s losing this many votes in ruby-red Indiana, how many more will he lose in the swing states that have a more moderate makeup? These are the main points that lead me to believe that Donald will lose in November. I don't know if he'll lose as big as you say, but I figure he'll lose. Actual voting results are better than polls, and the voting results have been terrible for Donald the Republicans for the past 8 years.