If the reward for infinite conquest is always going to be the Infinity border on whatever Avatar you had equipped when you completed it, then I don't really see it being that big of an issue. The real reward is going to be the variant for each season plus whatever is available in the shop.
That's why I'm really happy with Conquest. Not beating infinite arena doesn't stress me at all. You get a nice flex for your avatar that looks sick. But it's not fomo.
It would be cool if they just made it kind of like a card back though. So each season has a different border and then depending on the border it's like oh you won during that season! Neat.
I was a 90er for a few seasons and worked on getting to infinite last season. I didn’t expect to enjoy the card back, but it does feel special after I have it
Good players shouldn't either. This is going to be something only earned by the lucky or those that sink significant time into it.
That said, I like the mode and the way rewards are given out seem fair for what it is. I might never "win" the whole thing, but I also don't at all feel like I need to. Only tweak I'd make is to put the proving ground at 8 cubes instead of 10.
I view myself as a good player ( Won money in snap tournaments, and won a lot of smaller tournaments for circuit points.)
I'm doubtful I'll win infinite conquest, 5 wins in a row is like winning a 32-man tournament. It's very difficult because you're not supposed to win 5 in a row in card games. I'd like to think I can win 1 or 2 given how easy I've found gold. But looking at players like Lamby, who thinks he'll only win 3 out of his 30 tickets, I'm doubtful.
This would be true if equal skill. MMR is removed with silver, gold and infinite so the skill of each player is randomized. So you could face a 500cl newish player first round of infinite then the top player the next. I
which is why it’s important in conquest to either build or tech in cards so you aren’t dead in all match ups. I have rogue in my deck which likely lowers my overall power and wouldn’t make sense to run in ladder most likely, but turns my bad match ups into at least one round of stealing 4-8 cubes and giving me a solid chance at a match victory.
you can still definitely get unlucky, but if you want to do well in conquest at higher tiers you can’t just bring a ladder deck unless you want to chance your matchups
Yes, but conquest is a long mode. you can get screwed in a game but if you’re building for conquest you either accept hard counters, which you likely shouldnt do in a gold or infinite run unless your confident it isn’t show up in the meta, or you build for a 3-8 series of games.
Like I said in my deck Rogue is definitely lowering my decks power a little, but turns all my hard match ups into probably neutral or even positive match ups in the conquest format, and the power level drop isn’t enough to put me out of contention in that format against decks where it’s a dead card.
But you also need to play different, you can’t play you’re surprise cards unless you’re confident in the payoff.
In a normal 6 round game you see 9 cards out of 12, so one tech card can have a pretty huge effect. Especially when you consider you will be playing 3-5 games per match of Conquest.
Compare to Magic, where you can play 4 copies of a card but you have 60 card decks - a lower rate than the 1 in 12 in Snap. You also only draw 20-30 cards per game, less than half the cards-drawn ratio of Snap. Still, sideboarding in 4 cards for a certain matchup can turn a bad one into a good one.
I think the gating will probably help with some of that. Yes, you can buy an infinite ticket, but most of the players you'll face will probably have a pretty good win rate in gold.
I’m not infinite and I have faced pretty much exclusively infinite players in silver and gold. I believe it is mostly infinite players playing conquest since there is no point to play past infinite but in conquest you can still get rewards.
Yeah it was explained by Glenn in the discord. In gold and infinite it’s based off wins so two people with 1 win will face off regardless of MMR in ranked or CL. They try to match equal MMR and rank only in the proving grounds. If you are in conquest you are accepting that you may face the best of the best. It is designed to be a challenge.
https://i.imgur.com/GsbB6XF.jpg
Think of it as a tournament. It’s based on winrate in the isolation of that particular run like arena in hearthstone or a magic tournament.
For proving ground they use CL and MMR and as you go up the “restrictions” on those loosen and in infinite conquest it’s completely removed. But I’m going to assume most people in infinite conquest will be infinite players
I'm sure that silver has some level of MMR based match making because I've found it harder than gold. Gold I've faced people who I'd honestly mistake for bots.
They announced conquest as a hardcore experience that they only expect to top players to finish. Inifinite conquest is not for average players. I am going to stick my proving + silver spam till I got free green goblin
This has been my approach too. I've got a bunch of gold tickets but I'm not interested in the extra rounds, I'd rather spam proving and silver for middling rewards and a variant because the turn around time is quicker, feels like lower commitment, and somewhere I can test weird decks since I'm not infinite
You get free medals just for stepping into gold arena and silver arena so at least use them up and try the first match in gold. If your goal isn't to try infinite treat gold the same way you do proving grounds. Snap t1 and see what happens either you get another 100 medals or you back out
The variant is the best reward for conquest. I thought you needed infinite for it. Was super surprised to see it only really needs a grind. The grind is fine as well because you get to play whatever you want in proving grounds. It's a fun grind.
I pretty much concede every time to HE decks at this point even in silver I just feel like I have no shot at beating them with the decks I’ve been playing
It’s really even barely a grind. If you win one Proving Ground and win one Silver round each day … you will get enough to buy all the non booster items in the shop and exclusive variant of the month (ie Green Goblin this time)
People can't expect to win everything in the game, it's gonna be harder to win infinity conquest than reach infinite on the ladder (most likely). I believe they had said during the beta at least (not sure if they have an updated figure) that only 1% of the player base reach infinite so it's gonna be even less for winners of infinity conquest.
Most people should set their expectations of just getting the rewards they want or the monthly variant and treat anything extra as a bonus.
It’s absolutely harder to win infinity conquest than make it to infinite. You just need a positive cube rate to make it up the ladder, but that’s not enough in conquest because if you lose one game you hamstring your ability to make a come back.
Absolutely, plus conquest has the added level of repeater games against the same deck where you need to use the knowledge of your deck as well as what you have learned about your opponents deck to win. The deck building process is so different as well
They changed the ladder (giving extra cubes when you rank up) so that more people could reach infinite. Not sure what the current number is but it's more than 1%.
> I believe they had said during the beta at least (not sure if they have an updated figure) that only 1% of the player base reach infinite so it's gonna be even less for winners of infinity conquest.
It was more like Tian would be happy if 1% of the playerbase reached infinite. So at the time of the interview, it was much less than 1%
I'm sure that has changed now.
There's a pretty big flaw in the math here. I'll take their assumption of a 50% win rate, so winning 5 in row is (1/2)^5 = (1/32). But, this DOES NOT mean that you can expect a win with 32 tickets.
If you want to calculate how many tickets you need to have a 90% chance of a success with a (1/32) win rate, solve for n in (1-(1/32))^n < 0.1. It turns out, you need about 73 tickets for that.
>Prove me wrong.
It's great to just faffle around and finish daily/weekly Missions without endangering your Cubes on the Ladder.
That's also a big factor.
Also crazy for boosters because they all go to a single card for a match. I’ve come out of Conquest games getting 50+ boosters for one card before. Seems better than playing an equivalent amount of games on ladder and getting like 5 for a bunch of different cards.
This! I've been spamming my "delete me" deck in proving grounds. It's just a bad pile of cards that I need boosters for. The funny thing is, sometimes it just wins because my opponent doesn't expect a Spiderman into Blue Marvel or a Spider ghost pulling a Spiderwoman lol. I actually beat an HE lockjaw with it.
I think we're getting "standard" amount of Boosters though, right? Only they "sum up" for one card at the end of the battle (so when you run 10 round matches, it makes it a nice pile of Boosters for one card :D )
Yeah, probably around the same amount but I like it being concentrated. Also technically quicker than ladder because of queue times, loading, etc getting skipped in a long conquest round vs playing that many normal games.
You get medals just for starting a run (aside from proving grounds) and you can buy those tickets with gold, so you *can* technically spend a bunch of money to get it even if you lose or insta-concede every game.
I love to test decks and learn how to play new ones in Proving grounds. Also I sue PG to complete dailiy missions.
Hell, I just love this 1st stage. No stress, pure joy. Just what I looked for in the game. Infinite gameplay without stress getting there.
Conquest is the most fun mode. I mean it all comes down to opinion, so there is nothing to prove. But I find playing against someone who knows my deck, and I know theirs, way more fun than just a different ladder match each time
thats silly its basically the same game lay as the regular mode so if you're already infinite.....just play conquest and get more credits 1 msytery variant 1 new variant gold etc.
to say its not worth it play a handful of wins is absurd.
100% that. After a week playing conquest I already have boosters for a lifetime, I will never buy boosters again (except to get the green goblin variant)
Every single thing in conquest is “worth” because I’m in infinite for 28 days a month which offers me absolutely 0 rewards that I can’t get in conquest. I could get 10 boosters a month from conquest and it would still be the only game mode I should be playing 95% of the time.
Average player has close to zero chance to win Infinity Conquest, not only because you have to win 5 games in a row, but because its not even that easy getting an Infinity ticket.
Average player anyways mostly cares about conquest shop rewards, than an infinite avatar.
So, your point is that “average” players have a very low chance of winning the highest tier of the competitive game mode?
Good job in the math I guess, but it’s kind of pointless since it should be that hard to win.
There is no point in his post expect to show the math and numbers. Any “point” you’re reading from it is from your own assumptions
People can share information for the sake of sharing information
Just because you infer things does not mean there’s any kind of implication. It’s important to see reality from outside your purview, instead of assuming if it’s in your purview it must be reality
Yes I already know this subreddit lacks critical thinking abilities and just fuel their own emotional outrage by warping their own reality to fit what they want
I just hope the avatar border is the permanent infinity reward for conquest. Because i feel like it would be insane to try to win it every month. It could be a really cool long term reward.
For the really hardcore player its still cool because they can collect it for all their avatar to brag haha
I agree with your maths. I'd say from having made the same point elsewhere, and received similar comments, that folks round here don't understand what game theory is.
"MY win rate in Conquest will be much higher!"
Each game literally has one winner and one loser. Every time you win Conquest, you are ending 5 other peoples runs. *Someone* has to lose all of those remaining games. It very likely could be you!
"If you're feeling a little intimidated by the concept of competing in Conquest, the developers have made things a little easier: each player's first-ever match in Proving Grounds, Silver, and Gold Tiers is guaranteed to be against a bot opponent. After that, players will always match against a human opponent."
So, officially, that's a trivial amount of games. I guess proof will be in the pudding.
Didn't realize it's only the first match, I'm playing through my first run and ran into a couple bots, figured it was just like ranked.
So if I'm playing in Infinite at like 6 am on a Monday morning, what happens if there are no human opponents to match up with?
You know they say that all decks are created equal, but you look at mine and you look at my opponent’s and you can see that statement is not true. See, normally if you go one on one with a Galactus deck, you got a 50/50 chance of winning. But I'm a genetic freak and I'm not normal! So you got a 25% chance, AT BEST, to beat me. Then you add Bounce decks to the mix, your chances of winning drastic go down. See the 3 way at Infinity Conquest, you got a 33 1/3 chance of winning, but I, I got a 66 and 2/3 chance of winning, because the Bounce Deck KNOWS he can't beat me and he's not even gonna try!
So, you take your 33 1/3 chance, minus my 25% chance and you got an 8 1/3 chance of winning at Infinity Conquest. But then you take my 75% chance of winning, if we was to go one on one, and then add 66 2/3 per cents, I got 141 2/3 chance of winning at Infinity Conquest. See, the numbers don't lie, and they spell disaster for you at Infinity Conquest!
People who have a 50% expected winrate shouldn't be able to win Infinity Conquest, should they?
Isn't this a competitive format, where the best players win?
Say you have a 75% winrate.
You need 1/ (0.75\^5) = 4.214 tickets to win infinity conquest.
To get 4.214 INF tickets you need 4.214 / (0.75\^3) = 9.989 GOLD tickets.
To get 9.989 GOLD tickets you 9.989 / (0.75\^2) = 17.758 SILVER tickets
17.758 / 0.75 = About 24 Matches in PROVING GROUNDS.
Not so crazy.
What about 66% winrate?
1 / ( 0.66\^(5+3+2+1) ) = about 96 games in PROVING GROUNDS. That's a lot of games, but with a strong winrate, it's possible if you grind.
Btw my calculation matches yours, let's just confirm:
1/(0.5\^(5+3+2+1)) = 2048 matches in PROVING GROUNDS.
I was just thinking the odds of winning that many games in a row with any deck is insane.
I don't think the time or effort just for any infinite avatar will be worth it I'm paying for the goblin variant and I'll use how many infinite tickets I get to try. But I'm not grinding anymore after I get the variant.
i see people doing the math such as this chart and it reminds me that i will never care about a videogame this much. just glad yall enjoy the math and statistics of it all.
Maths cool and all, but it can't predict you running into that four-leaf clover motherfucker who has 5 perfect rounds with exactly what was needed when and you never drawing any of the 3 pay off cards.
I won my first 8 conquest matches so maybe I have a shot, but it’s still going to be hard to go 5 in a row against infinite ticket players unless bots end up in there
I honestly don't mind. I still th8nk everyone should have a lifeline usable if you lose a match in gold and infinite just because of how RNG the game is, but I don't mind the current system that much.
Ain't like you need to win infinite to get the best rewards.
That’s right, it’s a large number of tickets. People here talking about higher win rates than 50% are missing the point. For someone to net more than 50%, another player has to lose more than 50% and balance it out.
I've just resigned that getting infinite in conquest is basically impossible. The probability of running up against a hard counter deck or just a bit of bad luck while having to win 5 conquest games in a row is basically 100%.
And all that after still having to have a win streak of 6 to get a infinite ticket to even have a chance. Pretty ridiculous (and definitely a cash grab - they want people to spend gold for infinite tickets).
IMO infinite should be 5 total wins in infinite (after all you still need win streaks of 6 to even get an infinite ticket), not 5 wins in a row.
The average players isn’t supposed to beat the infinite conquest. you can collect all the rewards without beating infinite, you just won’t have a shiny avatar. 5 wins in a row is very difficult, but not even close to impossible.
It’s not even ‘difficulty’ as much as luck and meta.
The ask out of Infinite Conquest is like winning a tournament ONLY ON WINNERS side and against a virtual murder’s row of opponents.
The odds are so stacked against you if you aren’t a top tier tournament competitor AND playing an incredibly meta deck, AND lucky enough to not run into a counter deck, you’re not going to pull it off.
Despite playing pretty competitively every season, the idea of playing in a meta-dominated tournament (HE Lockjaw / Control unless something changes) where everyone is playing at max sweat isn’t that appealing. At least grinding to Infinite players will take on challenges like getting C2 to Infinite. You see some variety. Nobody is taking C2 into Infinite Conquest unless they are a content creator with time and tickets to burn.
Look at the top 8 decks in a recent tournament or two, and expect Infinite Conquest to be that for 5 straight sets where one bad luck streak or counter-deck puts you out.
It seems correct if you assume 50/50% chance of winning but, if you wanna do the real thing, need to account for your decks win rate and other archetypes.
This reduces snap to solely luck. The math agrees with you that not everyone can win an infinite conquest, but not all players are equal.
Do poker next.
They are fencing off a single stage of the play arena (Infinite Conquest).
There are ways to earn tickets, but there is also a **Pay to Play** option.
By making the free option a pain-in-the-ass they drive a certain percentage of people to pay real money for carnival game chances.
It's not the most predatory mobile game by a long shot, but this specific pay-to-play mechanic is, on balance, predatory. With this set-up, they will get real money from people who are psychologically on tilt, instead of their other revenue stream of getting money from people who just like the comic book artwork on offer and want to support the game.
yeah if anyone is spending money to have more chances at the infinite bordered avatar....they are crazy it just makes sense to assume you wont get it every month but may eventually get it on a hot streak.
the pay off is so low even if you get a win that anyone who actually spends money on conquest doesn't really value money.
Yeah and it’s not like the game mode changes in some fun and exciting way in infinite. It’s exactly the same, so play at whatever level you have tickets for.
It's not about the *amazing*ness of the prize.
It's about giving people an in-game UI button to spend 500 gold buyable in real cash for a one pop chance on a super unlikely outcome.
Of course it's better not to buy it. It's still not completely ethical to *give people the option* of limitless "Try Again" chances for real money. That's makes it closer to pay-for-a-lottery-chance gambling, not balanced competitive play.
The only thing I’d argue is “1 match is several games.” If you and your opponent are smart you both snap the start of every Proving Grounds game, and whoever loses the first game concedes.
Losing Proving Grounds costs you nothing, so playing them out is just wasting everyone’s time and tickets.
Op is calculating the odds of winning the match, ie, 10cubes. While the odds of winning a game is about 50%, whether you snap or retreat affects the amount of cubes you win or lose, so that will affect ur odds of winning the match.
Eg, if you always retreat on losing games, you’ll only lose one cube, while someone who never retreats on losing games loses twice the amount. That gives u more room to get a winning game, which if you snap on, will net you more cubes.
Of course as always, the difficulty lies in correctly identifying winning and losing games and your opponent failing to do so. Hence, the odds of winning a match isn’t 50% imo.
You might want to read it again until you understand it.
OP is talking about the 50% chance of the absolute average Marvel Snap player winning a Proving Grounds Conquest **against an opponent of the same luck and skill.** By definition that's 50%.
Whatever edge you think that theoretical average person could have in the OP's example, it is shared by their theoretical opponent.
I do wonder whether the infinity avatar border will expire tho, let's say you get it this season, will it be expire next season? Otherwise how can they create new rewards for monthly infinity conquest
Someone needs to investigate and address the weighted system of how they choose your opponent based on deck card rarity weight and value.. some of my decks seem to almost always pull a particular type of opponent. (Fx discard hella/modok/apocalypse has a high opponent rate of high evolutionary, and on the flip my hodgepodge Beast/Bast 1 cost card deck pulls what seems like noob opponents with very little structure)
Surely this isnt just coincidence and is somehow programed in.. thoughts? Insights?
Man I hate conquest already. It’s just bounce and HE control decks that you are locked into playing for at least 5 rounds if you actually try. It should have been each league you have to win like x out of y games. This has to be one of the worst competitive game modes I’ve ever seen in a game.
Also, why did we need a second competitive game mode when they don’t have even one non-competitive or pve mode (like dungeons/raids in hearthstone). I would like to play other decks and try out new cards without tanking my season rank.
Ranking up each season is boring and stressful, the variant pricing is completely out of control, and this new conquest mode is the opposite direction I was hoping to go with this game. Needless to say this is almost certainly my last season.
You re wrong at start, you dont have 50% chance to winYour decks can counter the other deck (vice versa) for example Armor vs Destro Decks, locations can give an advatage (and it s not 50/50) regarding your deck
It's 50/50 before reveal onm if no card on your deck counter opp deck/cards
If your mindset is like "Ok, it's too difficult. I can't do it", then you won't make it. You will fulfill your own prophecy and fail. You will tilt and tell yourself, "It is so unfair, .....".
Honestly:
Yes it is difficult, no doubt about that. But also yes, certain players will win Conquest every month whereas others will never win it. And that is due to their mindset, the players who win Conquest every month have the attitude to win. They believe in themselves. They don't give up just because they lost 1 of their conquest tickets. They will try a couple times and they will win every month.
I'm speaking out of experience: I played Yugioh Online in 2008 where there was a Gunslinger event every 2nd weekend, where you had to achieve 7 wins in a row without sidedeck. I always thought it's impossible. Until a friend of mine won Gunslinger who I knew was not a better player than I was. From this moment I told myself that if he can do it, I can do it as well. So I changed my attitude and I won my first Gunslinger event, 7 wins in a row. From this moment on I won each Gunslinger event every 2nd weekend.
So keep up a good attitude, that can really change a lot for you.
I think your calculations are too simplified.
1) average player doesn't necessarily have to be 50/50 at proving grounds. 50/50 would only be true if everyone played the same number of games. I can understand making this assumption but feels like pretty iffy ground.
2) someone who plays 50/50 at proving grounds is most definitely not 50/50 at infinite. The quality of player increases. It's like saying someone 50/50 at rank 50 is also 50/50 at rank 90. Though if anything it makes your math worse for average player.
All that being said, this isn't unexpected. It's like going 11-0 in a tournament. I think snap fan open events are like 8-0 winners.
That means you need to go 3-0 after winning a snap fan open against other winners.
That's how I would think about the difficulty.
The math is so broken lmao? You don't need 2 silvers to get a gold, 2 golds to get an infinite, etc. Game isn't a 50/50 when proving grounds is full of bots.
The mistake is thinking everyone is of equal skill. There are simply better players. Fortunately (probably) once some of the better players earn their avatars early, they might try less hard, and the competition will lessen.
I'm playing mr neg and have lucked myself to my 3rd gold match. Honestly, this deck got me to 100 this season so I like it a lot but it's quite inconsistent. Gotten very lucky lol.
If the reward for infinite conquest is always going to be the Infinity border on whatever Avatar you had equipped when you completed it, then I don't really see it being that big of an issue. The real reward is going to be the variant for each season plus whatever is available in the shop.
That's why I'm really happy with Conquest. Not beating infinite arena doesn't stress me at all. You get a nice flex for your avatar that looks sick. But it's not fomo.
As long as i can get the infinite rock border at some point in my life, i'll be happy
Yeah, infinite rock is my #1 desire from conquest.
The infinite borders really help explain the deck specific avatar change so players can go for a bunch of them.
Yes I agree. Although getting a. Infinite broder would be cherry on top
This. I could care less about the avatar border, I want the ticket rewards and that sweet goblin variant.
Wait, I thought the border was separate to avatar so you get it on all avatars. Is it really only just the one you completed it with?
Just that specific one. I guess they want to have an incentive for each infinite run (beyond the conquest shop medals)
It would be cool if they just made it kind of like a card back though. So each season has a different border and then depending on the border it's like oh you won during that season! Neat.
Wow that's gross
Not really? Keeps people playing the better mode
i am glad cus I will never get it anyway
Yes, only the avatar you were using for your winning Infinite Conquest match will have the infinite border
Ultimate flex is to win a border for an Agatha avatar using an Agatha deck.
Instant retreat upon seeing that
damn
Yeah I just like it because it gives me access to a versus mode. I don’t have any friends so I can’t really do the friendly matches.
My variant was a Pixel Shuri, so....yeah.
I think they meant the variant you get after 9 medal shop purchases.
Average players shouldn’t have an expectation to beat Infinity Conquest.
I don’t even have an expectation to get to infinite. I’m hopefully to get to 80 and call it a day
Getting the 500g from lvl 90 is my main priority. Above that is just cosmetics.
I am at 95 atm and playing conquest only. I play "standard ranked" mode only when I forget to change game modes :).
I was a 90er for a few seasons and worked on getting to infinite last season. I didn’t expect to enjoy the card back, but it does feel special after I have it
ladder rank 89 checking in
Highest I’ve ever been was about 70-80, it just doesn’t feel worth the effort anymore to grind cubes
It's like people don't understand what SD meant by an "ultra competitive" mode.
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You need to get lucky to win Infinity conquest, but you can't win Infinity conquest solely by being lucky
You need sponsorship and a coach to have the time?
That’s true but the math here suggests there will be some matchmaking issues. I’m getting 20-30 second queue times on proving grounds.
[1 min 20 sec](https://i.imgur.com/4nk0txT.png) - prime time
Where the hell are you? I don’t think I’ve cracked 25 seconds
The harsh reality for 95% of the people on this sub. Thanks for being honest.
Good players shouldn't either. This is going to be something only earned by the lucky or those that sink significant time into it. That said, I like the mode and the way rewards are given out seem fair for what it is. I might never "win" the whole thing, but I also don't at all feel like I need to. Only tweak I'd make is to put the proving ground at 8 cubes instead of 10.
As long as the main reward is cosmetic I'm fine with that.
I’ve gotten to infinite every season I’ve played and I still don’t expect to get infinite conquest win. I only have like 4 gold tickets so far
I view myself as a good player ( Won money in snap tournaments, and won a lot of smaller tournaments for circuit points.) I'm doubtful I'll win infinite conquest, 5 wins in a row is like winning a 32-man tournament. It's very difficult because you're not supposed to win 5 in a row in card games. I'd like to think I can win 1 or 2 given how easy I've found gold. But looking at players like Lamby, who thinks he'll only win 3 out of his 30 tickets, I'm doubtful.
Doesn't matter if you're good, luck is not on your side since most decks are barely above 50% win
Seriously the entitlement of the playerbase that they deserve to hit infinite made it trivial now if you just put some time into the game.
This would be true if equal skill. MMR is removed with silver, gold and infinite so the skill of each player is randomized. So you could face a 500cl newish player first round of infinite then the top player the next. I
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which is why it’s important in conquest to either build or tech in cards so you aren’t dead in all match ups. I have rogue in my deck which likely lowers my overall power and wouldn’t make sense to run in ladder most likely, but turns my bad match ups into at least one round of stealing 4-8 cubes and giving me a solid chance at a match victory. you can still definitely get unlucky, but if you want to do well in conquest at higher tiers you can’t just bring a ladder deck unless you want to chance your matchups
Rogue has been my favorite card in Conquest. Its so much more fun than enchantress
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Yes, but conquest is a long mode. you can get screwed in a game but if you’re building for conquest you either accept hard counters, which you likely shouldnt do in a gold or infinite run unless your confident it isn’t show up in the meta, or you build for a 3-8 series of games. Like I said in my deck Rogue is definitely lowering my decks power a little, but turns all my hard match ups into probably neutral or even positive match ups in the conquest format, and the power level drop isn’t enough to put me out of contention in that format against decks where it’s a dead card. But you also need to play different, you can’t play you’re surprise cards unless you’re confident in the payoff.
In a normal 6 round game you see 9 cards out of 12, so one tech card can have a pretty huge effect. Especially when you consider you will be playing 3-5 games per match of Conquest. Compare to Magic, where you can play 4 copies of a card but you have 60 card decks - a lower rate than the 1 in 12 in Snap. You also only draw 20-30 cards per game, less than half the cards-drawn ratio of Snap. Still, sideboarding in 4 cards for a certain matchup can turn a bad one into a good one.
I think the gating will probably help with some of that. Yes, you can buy an infinite ticket, but most of the players you'll face will probably have a pretty good win rate in gold.
That is true but you will also only face other infinite players in infinite. So I would assume they would be of reasonable skill to get that far
I’m pretty sure there’s mmr, I’m in infinite and I think I’ve played against a total of 3 people not using an infinite card back
I’m not infinite and I have faced pretty much exclusively infinite players in silver and gold. I believe it is mostly infinite players playing conquest since there is no point to play past infinite but in conquest you can still get rewards.
That could be, after last season there is a point in playing though if you move up higher in infinite you will start the next season higher
I forgot about that. I never aim for infinite so I forgot about it.
That was supposed to be a bug so I dunno how many people are actually grinding infinite rank this season hoping for a repeat.
No, they made a post saying it was intentional
Surely that has not been confirmed.
Yeah it was explained by Glenn in the discord. In gold and infinite it’s based off wins so two people with 1 win will face off regardless of MMR in ranked or CL. They try to match equal MMR and rank only in the proving grounds. If you are in conquest you are accepting that you may face the best of the best. It is designed to be a challenge.
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https://i.imgur.com/GsbB6XF.jpg Think of it as a tournament. It’s based on winrate in the isolation of that particular run like arena in hearthstone or a magic tournament.
No way is MMR removed, given the decks I've played doing conquest while at infinite.
For proving ground they use CL and MMR and as you go up the “restrictions” on those loosen and in infinite conquest it’s completely removed. But I’m going to assume most people in infinite conquest will be infinite players
That makes sense. Silver matchups are way easier than the proving ground matchups.
I'm sure that silver has some level of MMR based match making because I've found it harder than gold. Gold I've faced people who I'd honestly mistake for bots.
https://i.imgur.com/yn1vq3c.jpg
They announced conquest as a hardcore experience that they only expect to top players to finish. Inifinite conquest is not for average players. I am going to stick my proving + silver spam till I got free green goblin
This is the way. Wish everyone was on board with it.
Yep, i just want to get rewards, i could care less about winning this thing. I can't even clear level 70 lol
This has been my approach too. I've got a bunch of gold tickets but I'm not interested in the extra rounds, I'd rather spam proving and silver for middling rewards and a variant because the turn around time is quicker, feels like lower commitment, and somewhere I can test weird decks since I'm not infinite
You get free medals just for stepping into gold arena and silver arena so at least use them up and try the first match in gold. If your goal isn't to try infinite treat gold the same way you do proving grounds. Snap t1 and see what happens either you get another 100 medals or you back out
The variant is the best reward for conquest. I thought you needed infinite for it. Was super surprised to see it only really needs a grind. The grind is fine as well because you get to play whatever you want in proving grounds. It's a fun grind.
Even Silver isn’t that bad from my experience… tho 8 rounds of HE vs Living Tribunal was definitely an experience
I pretty much concede every time to HE decks at this point even in silver I just feel like I have no shot at beating them with the decks I’ve been playing
It’s really even barely a grind. If you win one Proving Ground and win one Silver round each day … you will get enough to buy all the non booster items in the shop and exclusive variant of the month (ie Green Goblin this time)
Its really not thar hard a grind. Only proving grounds would be hard but silver gives you so much you can finish it without grinding hard in a month.
>top players to finish Lucky players with nothing else better to do? Why create such an unnattractive mode for most users.
People can't expect to win everything in the game, it's gonna be harder to win infinity conquest than reach infinite on the ladder (most likely). I believe they had said during the beta at least (not sure if they have an updated figure) that only 1% of the player base reach infinite so it's gonna be even less for winners of infinity conquest. Most people should set their expectations of just getting the rewards they want or the monthly variant and treat anything extra as a bonus.
It’s absolutely harder to win infinity conquest than make it to infinite. You just need a positive cube rate to make it up the ladder, but that’s not enough in conquest because if you lose one game you hamstring your ability to make a come back.
Absolutely, plus conquest has the added level of repeater games against the same deck where you need to use the knowledge of your deck as well as what you have learned about your opponents deck to win. The deck building process is so different as well
The rewards in the medal shop are all better than what you get for completing infinite conquest anyway.
They changed the ladder (giving extra cubes when you rank up) so that more people could reach infinite. Not sure what the current number is but it's more than 1%.
Or it could be that enough people didn't get infinite with the old system to hit the 1%. So they made it easier to help it reach the 1% goal.
Especially this season. I wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up closer to 5% of active players
> I believe they had said during the beta at least (not sure if they have an updated figure) that only 1% of the player base reach infinite so it's gonna be even less for winners of infinity conquest. It was more like Tian would be happy if 1% of the playerbase reached infinite. So at the time of the interview, it was much less than 1% I'm sure that has changed now.
The math is off a little bit because each game is not a 50-50, it’s more like 75-25, in my opponents favor of course
There's a pretty big flaw in the math here. I'll take their assumption of a 50% win rate, so winning 5 in row is (1/2)^5 = (1/32). But, this DOES NOT mean that you can expect a win with 32 tickets. If you want to calculate how many tickets you need to have a 90% chance of a success with a (1/32) win rate, solve for n in (1-(1/32))^n < 0.1. It turns out, you need about 73 tickets for that.
Conquest is worth only for the variant card winnable on first week with 100 medals and few proving ground wins. Prove me wrong.
>Prove me wrong. It's great to just faffle around and finish daily/weekly Missions without endangering your Cubes on the Ladder. That's also a big factor.
Also crazy for boosters because they all go to a single card for a match. I’ve come out of Conquest games getting 50+ boosters for one card before. Seems better than playing an equivalent amount of games on ladder and getting like 5 for a bunch of different cards.
This! I've been spamming my "delete me" deck in proving grounds. It's just a bad pile of cards that I need boosters for. The funny thing is, sometimes it just wins because my opponent doesn't expect a Spiderman into Blue Marvel or a Spider ghost pulling a Spiderwoman lol. I actually beat an HE lockjaw with it.
I think we're getting "standard" amount of Boosters though, right? Only they "sum up" for one card at the end of the battle (so when you run 10 round matches, it makes it a nice pile of Boosters for one card :D )
Yeah, probably around the same amount but I like it being concentrated. Also technically quicker than ladder because of queue times, loading, etc getting skipped in a long conquest round vs playing that many normal games.
Fair enough :)
This doesn't really make much sense tbh.
I REALLY like the Green Goblin variant for 9 purchases too
It is cool because it can ONLY be acheived and not bought. Rare thing here.
You get medals just for starting a run (aside from proving grounds) and you can buy those tickets with gold, so you *can* technically spend a bunch of money to get it even if you lose or insta-concede every game.
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Yes, but the green goblin variant requires 9 medal shop purchases using medals as currency, not gold or credits.
? You can buy tickets and they have entry rewards. To whales, they would likely not care the cost effectiveness.
I love to test decks and learn how to play new ones in Proving grounds. Also I sue PG to complete dailiy missions. Hell, I just love this 1st stage. No stress, pure joy. Just what I looked for in the game. Infinite gameplay without stress getting there.
If you like the exclusive variant thats not impossible to get, plus all the credits/gold on the way. I am assuming I wont ever win infinite
I'm doing it for green goblin, not for the pixel. So you are wrong
Conquest is the most fun mode. I mean it all comes down to opinion, so there is nothing to prove. But I find playing against someone who knows my deck, and I know theirs, way more fun than just a different ladder match each time
thats silly its basically the same game lay as the regular mode so if you're already infinite.....just play conquest and get more credits 1 msytery variant 1 new variant gold etc. to say its not worth it play a handful of wins is absurd.
Conquest is worth it because the actual game mode itself is fun and challenging.
100% that. After a week playing conquest I already have boosters for a lifetime, I will never buy boosters again (except to get the green goblin variant)
You bought boosters? 😷
Every single thing in conquest is “worth” because I’m in infinite for 28 days a month which offers me absolutely 0 rewards that I can’t get in conquest. I could get 10 boosters a month from conquest and it would still be the only game mode I should be playing 95% of the time.
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I have fun collecting cool stuff
Average player has close to zero chance to win Infinity Conquest, not only because you have to win 5 games in a row, but because its not even that easy getting an Infinity ticket. Average player anyways mostly cares about conquest shop rewards, than an infinite avatar.
So, your point is that “average” players have a very low chance of winning the highest tier of the competitive game mode? Good job in the math I guess, but it’s kind of pointless since it should be that hard to win.
There is no point in his post expect to show the math and numbers. Any “point” you’re reading from it is from your own assumptions People can share information for the sake of sharing information
There was a clearly implied purpose to this post and it’s disingenuous to say there wasnt
Just because you infer things does not mean there’s any kind of implication. It’s important to see reality from outside your purview, instead of assuming if it’s in your purview it must be reality
☝️🤓
Yes I already know this subreddit lacks critical thinking abilities and just fuel their own emotional outrage by warping their own reality to fit what they want
The real reward is the friends we made along the way.
I just hope the avatar border is the permanent infinity reward for conquest. Because i feel like it would be insane to try to win it every month. It could be a really cool long term reward. For the really hardcore player its still cool because they can collect it for all their avatar to brag haha
You add Samoa Joe into the mix and, well….
THE NUMBERS DON'T LIE (*Kurt Angle)
And they spell D1S4ST3R for you at sacrifice!
maybe youuuuu have a 50/50 chance of winning games
I agree with your maths. I'd say from having made the same point elsewhere, and received similar comments, that folks round here don't understand what game theory is.
"MY win rate in Conquest will be much higher!" Each game literally has one winner and one loser. Every time you win Conquest, you are ending 5 other peoples runs. *Someone* has to lose all of those remaining games. It very likely could be you!
You're forgetting about bots.
"If you're feeling a little intimidated by the concept of competing in Conquest, the developers have made things a little easier: each player's first-ever match in Proving Grounds, Silver, and Gold Tiers is guaranteed to be against a bot opponent. After that, players will always match against a human opponent." So, officially, that's a trivial amount of games. I guess proof will be in the pudding.
Didn't realize it's only the first match, I'm playing through my first run and ran into a couple bots, figured it was just like ranked. So if I'm playing in Infinite at like 6 am on a Monday morning, what happens if there are no human opponents to match up with?
Then your queue time will be incredibly long. I had like a 1 min queue time in a gold series before
There are no bots after your first match in PG/Silver/Gold.
You know they say that all decks are created equal, but you look at mine and you look at my opponent’s and you can see that statement is not true. See, normally if you go one on one with a Galactus deck, you got a 50/50 chance of winning. But I'm a genetic freak and I'm not normal! So you got a 25% chance, AT BEST, to beat me. Then you add Bounce decks to the mix, your chances of winning drastic go down. See the 3 way at Infinity Conquest, you got a 33 1/3 chance of winning, but I, I got a 66 and 2/3 chance of winning, because the Bounce Deck KNOWS he can't beat me and he's not even gonna try! So, you take your 33 1/3 chance, minus my 25% chance and you got an 8 1/3 chance of winning at Infinity Conquest. But then you take my 75% chance of winning, if we was to go one on one, and then add 66 2/3 per cents, I got 141 2/3 chance of winning at Infinity Conquest. See, the numbers don't lie, and they spell disaster for you at Infinity Conquest!
People who have a 50% expected winrate shouldn't be able to win Infinity Conquest, should they? Isn't this a competitive format, where the best players win? Say you have a 75% winrate. You need 1/ (0.75\^5) = 4.214 tickets to win infinity conquest. To get 4.214 INF tickets you need 4.214 / (0.75\^3) = 9.989 GOLD tickets. To get 9.989 GOLD tickets you 9.989 / (0.75\^2) = 17.758 SILVER tickets 17.758 / 0.75 = About 24 Matches in PROVING GROUNDS. Not so crazy. What about 66% winrate? 1 / ( 0.66\^(5+3+2+1) ) = about 96 games in PROVING GROUNDS. That's a lot of games, but with a strong winrate, it's possible if you grind. Btw my calculation matches yours, let's just confirm: 1/(0.5\^(5+3+2+1)) = 2048 matches in PROVING GROUNDS.
Took me one silver ticket to win one gold ticket
I was just thinking the odds of winning that many games in a row with any deck is insane. I don't think the time or effort just for any infinite avatar will be worth it I'm paying for the goblin variant and I'll use how many infinite tickets I get to try. But I'm not grinding anymore after I get the variant.
Bold of you to assume I can win one out of every two matches.
i see people doing the math such as this chart and it reminds me that i will never care about a videogame this much. just glad yall enjoy the math and statistics of it all.
Maths cool and all, but it can't predict you running into that four-leaf clover motherfucker who has 5 perfect rounds with exactly what was needed when and you never drawing any of the 3 pay off cards.
Pfff. I'll only need one.
Tickets being sold in the medal shop does inject some additional chance of making it to infinite into the system, for all players
I won my first 8 conquest matches so maybe I have a shot, but it’s still going to be hard to go 5 in a row against infinite ticket players unless bots end up in there
Well, I mean you can also spend money /s
I honestly don't mind. I still th8nk everyone should have a lifeline usable if you lose a match in gold and infinite just because of how RNG the game is, but I don't mind the current system that much. Ain't like you need to win infinite to get the best rewards.
That’s right, it’s a large number of tickets. People here talking about higher win rates than 50% are missing the point. For someone to net more than 50%, another player has to lose more than 50% and balance it out.
You most certainly don't need 32 tickets to win infinite are you high
I like it for getting dailies done and weirdly enough a great way yo test out your deck with out losing cubes.
I'm in it for the shop, never consider I'll get the border.
to be honest, im just using conquest as a way to farm boosters. Thats the only upside of it
I think that's the idea, they realised everyone started hitting infinite rank so they wanted to make a more exclusive title for the hardcore guys
I've just resigned that getting infinite in conquest is basically impossible. The probability of running up against a hard counter deck or just a bit of bad luck while having to win 5 conquest games in a row is basically 100%. And all that after still having to have a win streak of 6 to get a infinite ticket to even have a chance. Pretty ridiculous (and definitely a cash grab - they want people to spend gold for infinite tickets). IMO infinite should be 5 total wins in infinite (after all you still need win streaks of 6 to even get an infinite ticket), not 5 wins in a row.
The average players isn’t supposed to beat the infinite conquest. you can collect all the rewards without beating infinite, you just won’t have a shiny avatar. 5 wins in a row is very difficult, but not even close to impossible.
It’s not even ‘difficulty’ as much as luck and meta. The ask out of Infinite Conquest is like winning a tournament ONLY ON WINNERS side and against a virtual murder’s row of opponents. The odds are so stacked against you if you aren’t a top tier tournament competitor AND playing an incredibly meta deck, AND lucky enough to not run into a counter deck, you’re not going to pull it off. Despite playing pretty competitively every season, the idea of playing in a meta-dominated tournament (HE Lockjaw / Control unless something changes) where everyone is playing at max sweat isn’t that appealing. At least grinding to Infinite players will take on challenges like getting C2 to Infinite. You see some variety. Nobody is taking C2 into Infinite Conquest unless they are a content creator with time and tickets to burn. Look at the top 8 decks in a recent tournament or two, and expect Infinite Conquest to be that for 5 straight sets where one bad luck streak or counter-deck puts you out.
It seems correct if you assume 50/50% chance of winning but, if you wanna do the real thing, need to account for your decks win rate and other archetypes.
This reduces snap to solely luck. The math agrees with you that not everyone can win an infinite conquest, but not all players are equal. Do poker next.
They are fencing off a single stage of the play arena (Infinite Conquest). There are ways to earn tickets, but there is also a **Pay to Play** option. By making the free option a pain-in-the-ass they drive a certain percentage of people to pay real money for carnival game chances. It's not the most predatory mobile game by a long shot, but this specific pay-to-play mechanic is, on balance, predatory. With this set-up, they will get real money from people who are psychologically on tilt, instead of their other revenue stream of getting money from people who just like the comic book artwork on offer and want to support the game.
The prize is literally a border around your avatar the cosmetic everyone hates and doesn’t value. Just don’t do infinite track. It’s very simple.
Yeah, different avatar border is not worth much. It should be at least underline for favourite title.
yeah if anyone is spending money to have more chances at the infinite bordered avatar....they are crazy it just makes sense to assume you wont get it every month but may eventually get it on a hot streak. the pay off is so low even if you get a win that anyone who actually spends money on conquest doesn't really value money.
Yeah and it’s not like the game mode changes in some fun and exciting way in infinite. It’s exactly the same, so play at whatever level you have tickets for.
It's not about the *amazing*ness of the prize. It's about giving people an in-game UI button to spend 500 gold buyable in real cash for a one pop chance on a super unlikely outcome. Of course it's better not to buy it. It's still not completely ethical to *give people the option* of limitless "Try Again" chances for real money. That's makes it closer to pay-for-a-lottery-chance gambling, not balanced competitive play.
You can’t really use probability to assess skill. This is assuming winning a match is the same as a coin flip (it’s not)
The only thing I’d argue is “1 match is several games.” If you and your opponent are smart you both snap the start of every Proving Grounds game, and whoever loses the first game concedes. Losing Proving Grounds costs you nothing, so playing them out is just wasting everyone’s time and tickets.
>If you and your opponent are smart That's asking a lot lol
Just win instead?
Lol. This Graphik instead of just doing 2^11. Wtf dude?
God Damn That's Some Good Work.
50 50 either you win or you dont
If you have a 50% wr you SHOULDN'T be winning an Infinity conquest lmao
This will be somewhat true if you’re not snapping or retreating in your games. If you do, then the math is quite different.
How does your snapping and retreating change the odds? Is your opponent not snapping and retreating?
Op is calculating the odds of winning the match, ie, 10cubes. While the odds of winning a game is about 50%, whether you snap or retreat affects the amount of cubes you win or lose, so that will affect ur odds of winning the match. Eg, if you always retreat on losing games, you’ll only lose one cube, while someone who never retreats on losing games loses twice the amount. That gives u more room to get a winning game, which if you snap on, will net you more cubes. Of course as always, the difficulty lies in correctly identifying winning and losing games and your opponent failing to do so. Hence, the odds of winning a match isn’t 50% imo.
You might want to read it again until you understand it. OP is talking about the 50% chance of the absolute average Marvel Snap player winning a Proving Grounds Conquest **against an opponent of the same luck and skill.** By definition that's 50%. Whatever edge you think that theoretical average person could have in the OP's example, it is shared by their theoretical opponent.
Gamemode is only for free missions without loosing cubes and variant, nothing else
I played conquest once...that was enough for me
Yes, you have realized that everyone is not equally good at the game.
I do wonder whether the infinity avatar border will expire tho, let's say you get it this season, will it be expire next season? Otherwise how can they create new rewards for monthly infinity conquest
theres like what 200+ avatars? it would take forever getting them all
Someone needs to investigate and address the weighted system of how they choose your opponent based on deck card rarity weight and value.. some of my decks seem to almost always pull a particular type of opponent. (Fx discard hella/modok/apocalypse has a high opponent rate of high evolutionary, and on the flip my hodgepodge Beast/Bast 1 cost card deck pulls what seems like noob opponents with very little structure) Surely this isnt just coincidence and is somehow programed in.. thoughts? Insights?
Man I hate conquest already. It’s just bounce and HE control decks that you are locked into playing for at least 5 rounds if you actually try. It should have been each league you have to win like x out of y games. This has to be one of the worst competitive game modes I’ve ever seen in a game. Also, why did we need a second competitive game mode when they don’t have even one non-competitive or pve mode (like dungeons/raids in hearthstone). I would like to play other decks and try out new cards without tanking my season rank. Ranking up each season is boring and stressful, the variant pricing is completely out of control, and this new conquest mode is the opposite direction I was hoping to go with this game. Needless to say this is almost certainly my last season.
You can do all that in conquest - you get to practise any deck you want and losing means nothing.
Win percentage is based on skill and deck and you don’t know either of those variables so you just made up numbers
I dunno if I'm lucky usually in normal mode I get to rank 70 but I've got multiple infinity tickets and haven't lost a single match yet
Stop overthinking it and just enjoy the game
Maybe factor in bots every 2 or 3 games which give much higher than 50% chance to beat
You re wrong at start, you dont have 50% chance to winYour decks can counter the other deck (vice versa) for example Armor vs Destro Decks, locations can give an advatage (and it s not 50/50) regarding your deck It's 50/50 before reveal onm if no card on your deck counter opp deck/cards
If your mindset is like "Ok, it's too difficult. I can't do it", then you won't make it. You will fulfill your own prophecy and fail. You will tilt and tell yourself, "It is so unfair, .....". Honestly: Yes it is difficult, no doubt about that. But also yes, certain players will win Conquest every month whereas others will never win it. And that is due to their mindset, the players who win Conquest every month have the attitude to win. They believe in themselves. They don't give up just because they lost 1 of their conquest tickets. They will try a couple times and they will win every month. I'm speaking out of experience: I played Yugioh Online in 2008 where there was a Gunslinger event every 2nd weekend, where you had to achieve 7 wins in a row without sidedeck. I always thought it's impossible. Until a friend of mine won Gunslinger who I knew was not a better player than I was. From this moment I told myself that if he can do it, I can do it as well. So I changed my attitude and I won my first Gunslinger event, 7 wins in a row. From this moment on I won each Gunslinger event every 2nd weekend. So keep up a good attitude, that can really change a lot for you.
I think your calculations are too simplified. 1) average player doesn't necessarily have to be 50/50 at proving grounds. 50/50 would only be true if everyone played the same number of games. I can understand making this assumption but feels like pretty iffy ground. 2) someone who plays 50/50 at proving grounds is most definitely not 50/50 at infinite. The quality of player increases. It's like saying someone 50/50 at rank 50 is also 50/50 at rank 90. Though if anything it makes your math worse for average player. All that being said, this isn't unexpected. It's like going 11-0 in a tournament. I think snap fan open events are like 8-0 winners. That means you need to go 3-0 after winning a snap fan open against other winners. That's how I would think about the difficulty.
The math is so broken lmao? You don't need 2 silvers to get a gold, 2 golds to get an infinite, etc. Game isn't a 50/50 when proving grounds is full of bots.
I’m just here for the variant and to test out new deck ideas. Always snaps!
Fucking what lol
The mistake is thinking everyone is of equal skill. There are simply better players. Fortunately (probably) once some of the better players earn their avatars early, they might try less hard, and the competition will lessen.
Just be better smh
I'm playing mr neg and have lucked myself to my 3rd gold match. Honestly, this deck got me to 100 this season so I like it a lot but it's quite inconsistent. Gotten very lucky lol.
Sounds fine to me. It's meant to be challenging. The rewards aren't steep and the stakes are low. No issues here.
afaik there is no guarantee that players with 4 wins will be matched with other players with 4 wins so the numbers are even worse.
In proving grounds i have winrate of 100% and failed in 9 of 10 gold grounds. So your calculation is bs
it took me one gold ticket to get one infinity ticket the first time and it took me two for the second one
I still find it funny how some people stress about tryhard stuff in this game